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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile
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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile

  #131 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones review for 2014.11.18


daddy View Post
Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the bulls showed some strenght, but the 76.09-76.35 zone stopped them (), and the bears pulled back, nullified the overnight gain.
Under the 74.97-75.43 zone I’m looking for shorts, the next support is 74.25-74.44

So yesterday was ruled by the bears. After the price went lower than the 74.97-75.43 zone, it came back to the ONL, just to head down again. The bears were stopped at the next support, 74.25-74.44.

This is how the zones played out:

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  #132 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones for 2014.11.19

Bias: slightly bearish

Today all eyes ont he crude inventories at 10:30. Yesterday the API oil inventories report was pretty bearish, so we’ll see what happens at this time.

The zones for today:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.7-80.3
78.4-79
77.15-78
76.65-76.82
76.09-76.35
75.55-75.67
74.68-75.43
74.25-74.44

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  #133 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

Trades for 2014.11.19


Now this was a sweaty day, at the end, it’s even.

Trade 1:
Time: 9:07
Sell 1 @ 75.01
Buy 1 @ 74.88
P&L w. commissions: 125.38
The second touch of the ONH, after a small strech. I entered with one contract, experimenting with something new..

Trade 2:
Time: 10:45
Sell 2 @ 74.24
Buy 2 @ 74.29
P&L w. commissions: -109.24
I shorted a small strech, didn’t work out.

Trade 3:
Time: 11:42
Sell 1 @ 75.01
Buy 1 @ 75.18
P&L w. commissions: -174.62
The very same setup like in trade 1. Unfortunately this time it didn’t work, and I had to suffer a huge slippage as well.

Trade 4:
Time: 11:45
Sell 2 @ 75.18
Buy 2 @ 75.18
P&L w. commissions: -9.24
Strech and bearish imbalance. This time the greedy got caught, I could exit at my usual 10 tick, but I wanted 20. It didn’t come, so I scratched.

Trade 5:
Time: 11:56
Sell 2 @ 75.21
Buy 2 @ 75.12
P&L w. commissions: 170.76
Same idea as in trade 4. I wanted 20 ticks again, but it only gave me 10. With the exit I should have played breakout above 75.10, but as I always say, it's easy to read the left side of the chart...

P&L for the day: 3
P&L for the month: -270.2
P&L from 09.24: 1781.86

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  #134 (permalink)
Mate
Budapest, Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: TopstepTrader
Favorite Futures: NQ, TF, YM
 
matevisky's Avatar
 
Posts: 469 since May 2013
Thanks: 632 given, 1,544 received

Analysis, what we have been talking about

I am not saying it is always clear, could take a lots of false signal, but hey, as a starter you can make your day!
T440 big timeframe overview:
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Before report move
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After report move
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Máté
Full time traderLive journal here
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  #135 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones for 2014.11.20

Bias: neutral

The crude is still in a downtrend, one can see downward pressure long term.
The bottom two zones are so close to each other, that the price either breaks out from them, or moving sideways.

The zones for today:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.7-80.3
78.4-79
77.15-78
76.65-76.82
76.09-76.35
75-75.4
74.3-74.8

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  #136 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

Trades for 2014.11.20

Trade 1:
Time: 10:19
Buy 2 @ 75.27
Sell 2 @ 75.25
P&L w. commissions: -49.24
I was expecting a breakout, because of huge buy imbalances on top, which was absorbed by the sellers. I was waiting for the bears to give up. They did, and the price runned nearly 30 ticks – without me, because I closed the position. Why? Above the absorption level the price stopped, and I could almost hear the crickets playing, so I headed for the exit.

Trade 2:
Time: 10:21
Sell 2 @ 75.35
Buy 2 @ 75.42
P&L w. commissions: -149.24
An absulute no-go, shouldn’t waste the time to write about it. Mixed signals, but I guess my subconscious mind wanted to trade after trade 1’s missed opportunity. Too bad.

Trade 3:
Time: 10:33
Sell 1 @ 75.42
Buy 1 @ 75.16
P&L w. commissions: 255.38
I just went with 1 contract, because I couldn’t see a clear sign, it was chopping. It was streched, though, and at the edge of my zone, which I did trust to hold. I was so inspired by @matevisky, that I holded the position for 20 minutes, personal best of this year!


Trade 4:
Time: 10:55
Sell 2 @ 75.16
Buy 2 @ 75.06
P&L w. commissions: 190.76
Now this beauty is rare, and is my favourite. Streched with decreasing delta, and, as a cherry on the cake, there sat a huge buy imbalance on top, which didn’t trigger a further move up.

P&L for the day: 247.6
P&L for the month: -22.54
P&L from 09.24: 2029.52

Attached Thumbnails
daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141120_trade_1.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141120_trade_2.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141120_trade_3.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141120_trade_4.jpg  
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  #137 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones for 2014.11.21

Bias: neutral/slightly bearish

The price broke up from yesterday’s two bottom zones (see previous S/R zones), and the bulls continued to march overnight.
However, 78 is an important resistance here, and it’s Friday, so I expect sideways or bearish move.

The zones for today:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.2-79.7
78.38-78.6
77.6-77.8
77-77.45
76.03-76.36
75.57-75.72
74.98-75.4
74.5-74.7

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  #138 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

Trades for 2014.11.21

The lesson from Friday’s trades: never experiment on something on your account. One should take trades after having a sound and backtested trading method. Obvious isn’t it?

Trade 1:
Time: 10:19
Buy 2 @ 75.27
Sell 2 @ 75.25
P&L w. commissions: -24.64
Now this is a classic 1 tick-miss trade, I still can’t believe it. After a good strech, I decided to let it go down, instead of taking my usual 10 tick target, I put a take profit to 76.35. I entered with 1 contract, since I used 10 tick stop instead of my usual 5.
So, entered short at 76.68. I tried to resist to pull the stop to entry, so I waited. But it didn’t go down, so finally I tried to scratch.
After that, the price came up, but it turned 1 tick before my previous stop, and headed down again, right to my previous profit target, where it turned up 1 tick before it, so the target wasn’t reached. (then, 16 minutes later, it was)

Trade 2:
Time: 11:00
Sell 1 @ 76.18
Buy 1 @ 76.31
P&L w. commissions: -134.62

Trade 3:
Time: 11:43
Buy 1 @ 76.04
Sell 1 @ 75.95
P&L w. commissions: -94.62

Trade 4:
Time: 11:51
Buy 1 @ 75.72
Sell 1 @ 75.66
P&L w. commissions: -64.62

P&L for the day: -318.48
P&L for the month: -341.02
P&L from 09.24: 1711.04

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  #139 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones for 2014.11.24

Bias: slightly bearish

The zones for today:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.2-79.7
78.38-78.6
77.61-77.75
77-77.35
76.15-76.86
75.64-75.9
74.9-75.35
74.42-74.75

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  #140 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones for 2014.11.25


Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the price mainly went sideways. There was an attempt by the bulls to push higher, but the bears pulled back. A big zone formed at 75.65-76.5.
The big question is, which way now, above ONH or below ONL? I’m with the bears now.

The world – at least the oil-producing part of it - is getting fed up with the current low prices. „…current levels are unacceptable, Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said yesterday.”
Everybody’s waiting Thursday’s OPEC meeting, where the members might agree on a production ceiling cut. The big question is how much will it be? This will surely set the direction…

The zones for today:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.2-79.7
78.38-78.6
77.61-77.75
77-77.35
75.65-76.5
74.9-75.26
74.5-74.75

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