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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile
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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile

  #111 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones for 2014.11.11

Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the bears continued the good work, went down with a point compared to close, but the bulls pushed back to prev. close.
Iím still a bear, but Iím waiting for the ONL to be broken, otherwise I think itís sideways between 76 and 80.

The acceptance zones unfortunately became pretty thick:

82.1-82.55
80.9-81.4
80.5-80.65
79.85-80.3
79.20-79.65
78.4-79
76.95-77.8
76.5-76.8

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  #112 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones review for 2014.11.11


daddy View Post
Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the bears continued the good work, went down with a point compared to close, but the bulls pushed back to prev. close.
Iím still a bear, but Iím waiting for the ONL to be broken, otherwise I think itís sideways between 76 and 80.

Sideways it was, mainly because of the low volume of the bank holiday.
Basically all day long the price stayed in the 76.95-77.8 zone. The bears one time tried to break from it, but only could make to the 76.5-76.8 zone, where the price turned, and went back to the giant zone.

How the zones played out:

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  #113 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones for 2014.11.12


Bias: neutral/slightly bearish

Overnight the price went sideways in the 77.1-78 zone, couldnít climb above the close.
The inventories report is tomorrow, so probably the market will wait with sideways move. However, if the price can get below 75.84, the fall might continue.

The zones for today:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.7-80.3
78.4-79
77.1-78
76.5-76.8

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  #114 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

Trades for 2014.11.12

A trader should know when to stand up from the table, for me today itís now.
The day started with a bit of an Ąoh, sh*tĒ feeling: I wanted to go short before the open, but considered it too risky. Of course, no money for bunnies..
Well, this had an impact on my day for sure, all my real trades were a loser (and all my ĄfantasyĒ trades were winners of course).

Trade 1:
Time: 9:51
Sell 2 @ 77.29
Buy 2 @ 77.30
P&L w. commissions: -29.24
Looked pretty good, with a huge selling imbalance, but on POC, so it was a bit risky. After triggering, huge buying imbalances formed, so I scratched. Good decision.


Trade 2:
Time: 10:02
Sell 2 @ 77.51
Buy 2 @ 77.51
P&L w. commissions: -9.24
Decreasing bull delta, and a neutral candle on top of VolProf. Instead of falling like a rock, it began to chop, so scratched again. Of course if I had the balls to sit, it would reach the target. I made a disciplined decision instead of money.

Trade 3:
Time: 10:22
Sell 2 @ 77.69
Buy 2 @ 77.75
P&L w. commissions: -129.24
There was a big sell imbalance on the top of the VolProf, but this wasnít a valid signal: it wasnít steched at all. Shouldnít take this trade. Mistake 2: I didnít react on the first buying imbalance. Hit stop.

Trade 4:
Time: 11:25
Sell 2 @ 77.97
Buy 2 @ 77.97
P&L w. commissions: -9.24
Huge strech at a round number, with a sell imbalance on top. I was too slow for the move, so I chased: instead of taking the trade at 78.01, I took it at 77.97. I scratched at the first sign of the bulls. If Iíd enter at the right price, this would be a winner. If Iíd sit on my hands, this would be a winner. BUT in the traderís life there are no ifs, and no shoulda-wouldas, but the end of the day.

P&L for the day: -176.96
P&L for the month: -23.16
P&L from 09.24: 2028.9

Attached Thumbnails
daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141112_trade_1.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141112_trade_2.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141112_trade_3.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141112_trade_4.jpg  
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  #115 (permalink)
Mate
Budapest, Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: TopstepTrader
Favorite Futures: NQ, TF, YM
 
matevisky's Avatar
 
Posts: 469 since May 2013
Thanks: 632 given, 1,544 received


daddy View Post
A trader should know when to stand up from the table, for me today itís now.
The day started with a bit of an Ąoh, sh*tĒ feeling: I wanted to go short before the open, but considered it too risky. Of course, no money for bunnies..
Well, this had an impact on my day for sure, all my real trades were a loser (and all my ĄfantasyĒ trades were winners of course).

Trade 1:
Time: 9:51
Sell 2 @ 77.29
Buy 2 @ 77.30
P&L w. commissions: -29.24
Looked pretty good, with a huge selling imbalance, but on POC, so it was a bit risky. After triggering, huge buying imbalances formed, so I scratched. Good decision.


Trade 2:
Time: 10:02
Sell 2 @ 77.51
Buy 2 @ 77.51
P&L w. commissions: -9.24
Decreasing bull delta, and a neutral candle on top of VolProf. Instead of falling like a rock, it began to chop, so scratched again. Of course if I had the balls to sit, it would reach the target. I made a disciplined decision instead of money.

Trade 3:
Time: 10:22
Sell 2 @ 77.69
Buy 2 @ 77.75
P&L w. commissions: -129.24
There was a big sell imbalance on the top of the VolProf, but this wasnít a valid signal: it wasnít steched at all. Shouldnít take this trade. Mistake 2: I didnít react on the first buying imbalance. Hit stop.

Trade 4:
Time: 11:25
Sell 2 @ 77.97
Buy 2 @ 77.97
P&L w. commissions: -9.24
Huge strech at a round number, with a sell imbalance on top. I was too slow for the move, so I chased: instead of taking the trade at 78.01, I took it at 77.97. I scratched at the first sign of the bulls. If Iíd enter at the right price, this would be a winner. If Iíd sit on my hands, this would be a winner. BUT in the traderís life there are no ifs, and no shoulda-wouldas, but the end of the day.

P&L for the day: -176.96
P&L for the month: -23.16
P&L from 09.24: 2028.9

I do feel you. It is always the hardest to fade the trend... It was clearly a trend, and it is always so much harder to bet on the trend, than to make a justification for a pullback

MŠtť
Full time traderLive journal here
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  #116 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones review for 2014.11.12


daddy View Post
Bias: neutral/slightly bearish

Overnight the price went sideways in the 77.1-78 zone, couldnít climb above the close.
The inventories report is tomorrow, so probably the market will wait with sideways move. However, if the price can get below 75.84, the fall might continue.

Sideways, then. Basically, the price stayed in the 77.1-78 zone all day, closing at the ONL.

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  #117 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones for 2014.11.13

Bias: bearish

What I was waiting for yesterday, happened overnight, the bears pulled down the price 1 point.
The crude might break below 75.84 today, of course it all depends on the 11:00 crude inventories.
According to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey, the crude inventories probably expanded by 1.1 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 7. If itís more, we can see a hell of a drop.
Downward I donít have any data, so if the price gets below the last zone, Iím gonna watch the newly forming zones (as always thorough the day).

The zones for today:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.7-80.3
78.4-79
77.1-78
76.68-76.9
76.15-76.37

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  #118 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

Trades for 2014.11.13

I was waiting for this drop, so I prepared to short whatever good setup Iíll see.
This is how it played out:

Trade 1:
Time: 9:09
Sell 2 @ 75.98
Buy 2 @ 76.05
P&L w. commissions: -149.24
It looked good: below ONL and a round number, with 200-something size in the book, I could see itíll trend down from here all day.. Unfortunately the bulls stepped in immediately, so I was stopped out, with a big slippage
The idea was good, though, 45 minutes later it broke down, and never looked back. I wasnít in, couldnít see a good setup.


Trade 2:
Time: 9:58
Sell 2 @ 75.78
Buy 2 @ 75.59
P&L w. commissions: 370.76
I know, I know, taking a short after a 50 tick straight drop, when everybody looks for a buy opportunity? But I simply couldnít resist this one.
I mean, come on, 405,147,95 sell imbalance in a row? Yeah I want to take it, baby. The only reason I didnít go with 5, was the long strech down, and the disappearance of bear delta.
But still, from this I wanted to take 20 ticks. It went easily 10 ticks, so I could take my usual target. Instead of this, I waited, and didnít move my stop. It nearly stopped me out, then turned and took the target. Greedy get caught, but not this time!

Trade 3:
Time: 12:15
Sell 2 @ 75.28
Buy 2 @ 75.29
P&L w. commissions: -29.24
Nicely steched, with a big sell imbalance. Unfortunately, after it triggered, the bulls stepped in, with a nearly as big buy imbalance, so I scratched.


P&L for the day: 192.28
P&L for the month: 169.12
P&L from 09.24: 2221.18

Attached Thumbnails
daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141113_trade_1.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141113_trade_2.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141113_trade_3.jpg  
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  #119 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones for 2014.11.14

Bias: neutral

Yesterday the crude dropped, as anticipated
Overnight the bears pulled the price to a new low, 73.25, but the bulls managed to get back above the previous close. The fall was big yesterday, but it seems the bulls came back, so Iím neutral today. Since itís Friday, it might be a sideways/small correction today Ö. or not
Havenít got the foggiest what happens today, but still a longer term bear.

The zones for today:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.7-80.3
78.4-79
77.1-78
76.5-76.9
76.08-76.31
75.1-75.46
74.2-74.51

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The following 2 users say Thank You to daddy for this post:
 
  #120 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones review for 2014.11.14



daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

Yesterday the crude dropped, as anticipated
Overnight the bears pulled the price to a new low, 73.25, but the bulls managed to get back above the previous close. The fall was big yesterday, but it seems the bulls came back, so Iím neutral today. Since itís Friday, it might be a sideways/small correction today Ö. or not
Havenít got the foggiest what happens today, but still a longer term bear.

Öso it was a small correction.
According to how the zones played out, I can nearly hear @matevisky ís voice: ĄMan, why donít you trade your zones from zone to zone?Ē

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