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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile


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Updated December 4th 2014 by daddy
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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile

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  #101 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones for 2014.11.07

Bias: neutral

Overnight the bulls made a nearly 1 point increase in the price, with an above-than-average volume spike at 7.30. Do they want to break out today?
On the daily chart, however, a triangle is forming again, and the downtrend is still valid.
Itís Friday, it supposed to be a quiet day, so my guess is sideways, or, if the bulls can break above ONH (78.82), the next area is 79.85-80.23, so theyíre gonna stop around 80, I think.

The zones for today:

82.9-83.06
82.1-82.55
80.9-81.4
80.45-80.65
79.85-80.23
78.45-78.73
77.9-78.26
77.5-77.75
77.12-77.26
76.51-76.90

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  #102 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

Trades for 2014.11.07

Trade 1:
Time: 10:29
Sell 2 @ 78.78
Buy 2 @ 78.79
P&L w. commissions: -29.24
It looked pretty nice, and it was. Just below the ONH, the price touched .80 fourth time, so I was waiting for a breakdown. After my order triggered, the movement simply wasnít what I imagined, so I scratched. After getting out, the target was reached Ė of course.


Trade 2:
Time: 12:14
Sell 2 @ 78.74
Buy 2 @ 78.79
P&L w. commissions: -109.24
I waited for a breakdown, based on huge imbalances, but the bulls were stronger, stopped out immediately.


P&L for the day: -138.48
P&L for the month: 153.8
P&L from 09.24: 2205.86

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  #103 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones review for 2014.11.07



daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

Overnight the bulls made a nearly 1 point increase in the price, with an above-than-average volume spike at 7.30. Do they want to break out today?
On the daily chart, however, a triangle is forming again, and the downtrend is still valid.
Itís Friday, it supposed to be a quiet day, so my guess is sideways, or, if the bulls can break above ONH (78.82), the next area is 79.85-80.23, so theyíre gonna stop around 80, I think.

Neutral it is, closed around the open.
The bulls did break out today, from the 78.35 area, at 9:35, just like at the 7:30 volume spike, but they couldnít even make it to 80. Basically, sideways was all day around the ONH, and finally, the price came back to the 78.45-78.73 area to close there.

How the predefined zones played out:


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  #104 (permalink)
Budapest, Hungary
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: TopstepTrader
Trading: NQ, TF, YM
 
matevisky's Avatar
 
Posts: 469 since May 2013
Thanks: 633 given, 1,531 received

@daddy

Same target zone, different reading (my target zone is calculated from presession range + fib extension...) You did the same math with your own analysis... I believe it makes sense

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  #105 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received


matevisky View Post
@daddy

Same target zone, different reading (my target zone is calculated from presession range + fib extension...) You did the same math with your own analysis... I believe it makes sense

I was thinking about entering it the top of the 77.9-78.26 zone, too bad I didnít
My next one, the 78.45-78.73 73 is misplaced on your printscreen, in reality it includes your Ąmake sense for meĒ yellow zone, so for some reason our zones overlap So yes, it makes sense.

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  #106 (permalink)
Budapest, Hungary
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: TopstepTrader
Trading: NQ, TF, YM
 
matevisky's Avatar
 
Posts: 469 since May 2013
Thanks: 633 given, 1,531 received


daddy View Post
I was thinking about entering it the top of the 77.9-78.26 zone, too bad I didnít
My next one, the 78.45-78.73 73 is misplaced on your printscreen, in reality it includes your Ąmake sense for meĒ yellow zone, so for some reason our zones overlap So yes, it makes sense.

Cool. That zone if you see, is easy to spot anyway. That is the CL opening range the first 1 min movement after the floor open. It is important not only at the indexies but at crude also. At least based on my readings and not on my analyisis. Hopes it helps to be braver to hit the trigger... More hint to make sense, more hint to everyone else to think it could be a turn:P

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  #107 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones for 2014.11.10

Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the bulls made to the edge of the 79.85-80.3 zone, and began to form another zone below that (79.48-79.73).
This tells me, that around 80 there is a strong resistance, as it can be seen on the daily chart also.

The zones for today:

82.1-82.55
80.9-81.4
80.5-80.65
79.85-80.3
79.48-79.73
78.9-79.1
78.4-78.7
77.89-78.01
77.5-77.76
77.12-77.25
76.51-76.90

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  #108 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

Wrestling with my psycho + YM

I had some good trade ideas today, but didnít pull the trigger. It was so tempting to short the fall, but I couldnít get a clear shot, so I sat on my hands.
I think this is one of the hardest things as a trader: to see the price going into the predicted direction, while seeing how much I didnít make today. The other hard thing is losing, of course, thatís what I wanted to avoid.
So I always wondering these times: was it fear or self-discipline?

@matevisky made me curious, how the acceptance zones work on YM, so I made the zones before open. Iíve never watched YM before, so unfortunately, I didnít have data to the upside.
Still, itís interesting how the price moved to the edges of the 17498-17528 zone, before breaking out.


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  #109 (permalink)
Budapest, Hungary
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: TopstepTrader
Trading: NQ, TF, YM
 
matevisky's Avatar
 
Posts: 469 since May 2013
Thanks: 633 given, 1,531 received


daddy View Post
I had some good trade ideas today, but didnít pull the trigger. It was so tempting to short the fall, but I couldnít get a clear shot, so I sat on my hands.
I think this is one of the hardest things as a trader: to see the price going into the predicted direction, while seeing how much I didnít make today. The other hard thing is losing, of course, thatís what I wanted to avoid.
So I always wondering these times: was it fear or self-discipline?

@matevisky made me curious, how the acceptance zones work on YM, so I made the zones before open. Iíve never watched YM before, so unfortunately, I didnít have data to the upside.
Still, itís interesting how the price moved to the edges of the 17498-17528 zone, before breaking out.

Attachment 165303

CL for today. Not the best clarity, but my trend targets working amazing. At least make sense. Once again. For me it is easier to analyze the historical data like this, than to put the zone's one by one all day all time. But if you have a strong understanding it is a down trend, than it is cool to see how it is works out

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  #110 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones review for 2014.11.10



daddy View Post
Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the bulls made to the edge of the 79.85-80.3 zone, and began to form another zone below that (79.48-79.73).
This tells me, that around 80 there is a strong resistance, as it can be seen on the daily chart also.

I was slightly bearish. Hmm.
Bears ruled today, they pulled the price to new and new lows, continuously, breaking the zones easily (78.9-79.1), or after some sideways move (78.4-78.7) or after a small pullback (77.89-78.01).
Finally they stopped around the 77.5-77.76 zone, moved sideways for a while, till the close. It seems the trend might continue overnight.

How the predefined zones played out:


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