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TS' Trading Journal (Since 2014/9/8)
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TS' Trading Journal (Since 2014/9/8)

  #71 (permalink)
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20150225

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One sim trade in FB, entry reasons:
1. Strong bull spike at the beginning of day, evidence of bull strength
2. Channel down from first high with a lot of bull bars, again sign of bull
3. Touching MA in 15min chart, expecting at least a double top for target, and may break previous high for a measured move(even low chance)

Price moved down after my entry, as the selling pressure remained, but didn't touch my stop. In 30mins (5 bars after my entry), it formed a double bottom and soon broke the bear channel.

I think it is a good trade.

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  #72 (permalink)
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20150526

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SIM trade in FB reasons:
1. Strong bull spike since the beginning of day
2. Strong reversal from bear correction (only one bar, a doji bar, after the large bear bar which break below the trading range at top)
3. Breakout of bear trend line, good sign of bull continuation
4. Price bounced from R1 level (potential risk: R1 is a good level of support but since the price has not touched MA, there is a chance of price forming a low high and continue another leg down to the MA)
Since this is a SIM trade, I placed two target, one is exact of privous high, the other is planned for a swing(if the price do trade above previous high and since it turned up from bear leg without touching MA, I would like to consider the bulls very strong, so there may be another leg up)

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*** 1st SIM trade in TWTR
This trade entered a little early, but the result was not bad, reasons:
1. Already 3 pushes up after breaking out of openning range
2. First lower low after 3 push
3. Huge volue at the potential top suggesting a selling off (very subjective)
Set target above R2, little far from MA. Since this is a countertrend trade, play safe is important (Target filled)

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*** 2nd SIM trade in TWTR, entry reasons:
1. After a strong bull spike before, a double top or higher/lower high is quite necessary
2. 3 pushed down in the bear correction trend
3. Sign of continuation after two bar reversal at low and breakout of bear trendline
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Trade management of 2nd SIM trade
Sign of sideway around MA area, finally target get hit. Still not a bad trade~

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Real trade TWTR:
*** 1st trade (first blue circle) reason:
1. Selling pressure at the first two bars of openning (potential for a double top with yesterday high --> very subjective)
2. Bear trend line breakout, expecting a pull back for a scalp
Very risky trade, actually, today open above yesterday's close, even price got lowe low still sign of bull strength. A 10c scalp is a just right profit. This trade makes me missed the good entry of the huge bull spike.

*** 2nd trade (second blue circle) reason:
This trade was take just before the 2nd SIM trade, same reasons to enter, but I was really not quite sure about this trade (actually it's not about certainty, it's about fear of lossing), I entered later in SIM trade.

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  #73 (permalink)
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20150227


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Real trade in FB:
1st trade (first blue oval) entry reasons:
1. Big selling spike from the 3rd bar of today showing great bear strength
2. the high of today at my entry (also the high of whole day) is near the high of yesterday, just few ticks below R1 level. Another sign of bear strength
3. The bull bar(the 6th bar), a inside bar and the first bull bar after 3 big bear bars, has no follow through, my signal bar(the 7th bar) close blow the close of bull bar, near its own low and the low of bull bar.

Selling the close of my signal bar, expecting a scalp profit. I did not dare to hole for a swing or any bigger profit
--First, the price was approaching S1 level (potential resistance)
--Second, price has broken the low of yesterday, a bull correction (may be big one) should not be a surprise
I was very sure about the down side trend, but I was always expecting a bull correction. This idea makes me a bit nervous when shorting and a bit eagerness for a long.

2nd trade (second blue oval) entry reason:
--Without any chance in the big picture, after my first trade, there has been 2 failed bull signal (first is 3 bar before my entry, a failed up side breakout, my signal bar is the second). Another scalp for 15 ticks.

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SIM trade in FB:
I was quite certain about a bull pull back, since the moving down is sharp and protracted for more than half of the day. Not a single higher high has been formed till 1:30 (time label in my chart = 12:30 NY time --> none until near 4:30 in my chart 3:30 NY time).

->First entry in SIM trade I bought the breakout of first bar standing above MA. I knew that the best case is a scalp in this trade, but I just can't help to think about a pull back. If the price moves higher, I'll do a scalp near the S1 level, if it continues down, I'll add more.
->Unwanted but anticipated, another move down followed my entry. I added more at the second entry, I bought a failed downside breakout of the bull bar, which is just after the selling off after my first entry (hope anyone understand this phrase...). There was just a 10 ticks scalp profit in this entry, but I held for a bigger bull leg which can provide a higher high.
->The third entry is not very logical...

The purpose of doing this SIM trade is to tell myself when the pull back will happen, actually it never happened till very late and left no time and room for covering up all previous lose in long trades.

Lesson learned:
--> Countertrend is risky, during one day you may never cover it back by adding to your position, like this SIM trade
--> Don't be greedy in countertrend trade, a scalp is enough, do not expect more
--> In countertrend trade, stop should be placed quickly and affirmatively, a quick drop may make stop loss even harder

Good weekend!

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  #74 (permalink)
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20150302

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First entry in TWTR, reasons:
1. Strong trend down from last Friday, price moved downside since the openning of today
2. Moving back to MA but failed to close above it, good size upside wick in the last bull bar of pull back to MA
3. No upside movement in my entry bar suggesting a strong bear strength
I'm not very good at placing target. The bear trending seemed strong, but I was afraid of a double bottom since the first bull back has good shape and size bull bars. And the quick downside movement may be a final bear spike followed by at least a large bull correction(it seems like seeing from 15min chart at the end of day) Adjust target from 47.61 to 47.64, target reached.

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Second entry in TWTR, reasons:
1. After my first trade, the price reached a LL and a LH, suggesting a strongger bear side
2. Potential two-bar reversal in the 15min chart
3. Double top downside movement
The price form a doji bar(hammer like) after my entry bar and went up directly, stopped out. There are several facts that I missed to take into consideration:
1. Bear trend line break
2. Relatively strong bull trend towards to MA compared to the bear leg to my entry
3. The high of doji bar after my entry should be used as stop target to reduce loss
4. My entry was still too early even considering the two bar reversal setup in 15min chart
After the big bear day of last Fridays, the price should have transformed into a trading range zone or trending trading range model. Further strong trend movement is possible but should not be a high possibility event.

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3rd trade in TWTR, reasons:
1. Two times of bear trendline break (blue line) suggesting a bear trend is fading
2. MA is climing up, bars closed above MA
It is not a good entry, even my judgement about the general uptrend is right. I was a little upset about the 2nd trade. Should have bought any point around the bull trendline but not at the top.

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SIM trades in TWTR
--First trade (blue circle):
Shorted a failed upside breakout and added in a ber breakout, target placed a few ticks above S1, target reached
--Second trade
Since the bull trend was not very strong, I wanted to fade possible failed upside breakout and enter bear breakout. I did not have the trending trading range idea, otherwise I would never enter the short side.

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  #75 (permalink)
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20150303

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Only SIM trades today:
First trade reasons:
1. sharp downside movement at the first 20mins of today shows bearish
2. previous selling pressure at my entry area
My entry was too early, I was expecting the MA pullback to fail and another leg down, just like I have seen last week. But I was not patient. I did not wait for the down side breakout of signal bar to enter. I entered few ticks above the close of signal bar. Soon after my entry, the price moved up quickly and above the hight of my signal bar, forced my out. Actually, there has been evidence of bull strength, the moving up to MA (3 bull bars before my signal bar) was in good shape. The price fall back eventually, unfortunately, by then I was on the long side.

I was thinking that the downside breakout has been failed (but the truth is that the breakout has never happened, by taking this trade, I was too confident that I have convinced my self that it had failed). Very tricky mental activity!!! If this was a real trade instead of a SIM one, with the more anxiety and pressure, I may not be able to detect the mental process.

The second trade was a process of adding position. I would and should never take it if it's not a SIM trade, even it is a winning one.

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  #76 (permalink)
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20150304

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Real trads in TWTR

First trade (first blue circle) enter reasons:
1. Bear has been in charge since the beginning of today (downside MA / only one HH in first 10 bars, it's a failed one)
2. My entry bar was a failed upside breakout
This trade was too late, the best entry should be 3 bars before, shorting the at the beginning of this leg down.I can only expect a scalpe profit about 15 ticks, because my entry was too late, the distance to MA was long, and there was previous sign of bulls. The price has not given me 15 ticks profit, exited as soon as I see some bull strength (no immediate follow through to make a LL)
The other reason of this trade to be a risky one is that, the new leg down has been a acceleration of downside movement, it created a slopier trend line, and break downside of of the deseceding wedge. Take previous bull strength into consideration, a failed downside breakout and upside movement is quite possible.

After my first trade, the price moved up, broke 3 bear trend lines (last one is the micro one near the MA).
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Second entry reasons:
1. Distance to MA, a pullback to MA has been done, but the price shows no hurry to form another leg down.
2. Breakout of 3 bear trendline.
3. My signal bar was also the signal of failure of downside breakout
Should have entered early, I uderestimated the bull strength. The trending trading range has taken the price to a higher level.

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In SIM trade, I re-entered where I have exited in my second trade. My judgement was right, I just do not have that kinds of confidence and patience yet. I'll work this out!

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  #77 (permalink)
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20150305

No trade today, get drunk during dinner~~

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  #78 (permalink)
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20150306

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First entry in TWTR, reasons:
1. Selling pressure was building since the 2nd bar of today
2. My signal bar was a failed upside breakout followed by downside breakout
I ignored 3 facts at that moment:
*first, there are more bull bars than bear bar, the bull bars are bigger than bear bars, suggesting some bull strength
*second, price was ascending in the first 25-30mins, MA was moving up
*third, my entry was still above previous HL (low of 4th bar today)
I was not patient, should spend more time thinking before acting.

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The first trade stopped me out. I re-entered on the long side as the price broke upside the bear trend line. I was right this time but too cautious about target price
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One trade in FB, reasons:
1. Bear strength at the beginning of today, sign pressure along the bull bars to the high of today
2. Bull trend line has been broken (by large size bear bar), possibly means a double top is not favorable, trading range may be the best case for bulls.
3. My signal bar was a failed upside breakout, suggesting a further movement

Good Weekend!


Last edited by tshunhu; March 7th, 2015 at 07:39 AM.
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  #79 (permalink)
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20150309

Really rough day for me! Missed beginning
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First entry in SPY, reasons:
1. Breakout of trading range at the very beginning of taday.
2. Moving up MA
I was expecting a further move up to some measured area based on the openning trading range, but the market was actually in a trending trading range.
-------------------

Based on my performance of last few weeks, I thought I could try holding a winning position longer, not just aiming at 10 or 15 ticks profit target. With this idea in mind, I try to find tradable breakout pattern. But during the hours where I was trading, there was absolute no swing for me...

A lots of emotional trades have been taken...I was pretty sure I would not do sth like this anymore, but again lost my temper...I managed to calm down and leave my desk without taking more loss.

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All trades in TWTR
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All trades in SPY

Lesson learned, it's not a fault to swing, but should not be obssessed with this idea. Should look at the market condition, if it does not fit, just some scalps is fine.


Last edited by tshunhu; March 10th, 2015 at 01:07 PM. Reason: wrong date
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  #80 (permalink)
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20150310


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First entry TWTR, reasons:
1. spike down since opening
2. building sell pressure
3. failed upside beakout (not yet in this chart, I got in earlier as I was pretty sure about further downside movement)

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Got out way too early as the downside movement protracted so long...little regret, once the price entered the trading range, I got mad...just cannot trade this market condition, especially when the market evolved from trends to trading range. Should step away.

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3 trades in FB, the first was done in the same time as the first trade in TWTR. The last 2 were in bad mental condition as I was also struggling with TWTR.

After trades in TWTR and FB, the result of today was $-27, I took a walk outside to rest and reset my mind.
Then comes the trade in SPY

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Good entry should be more brave to hold longer.

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