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Research: trading pullbacks in CL
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Research: trading pullbacks in CL

  #81 (permalink)
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3/17/14, Monday

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The rangebound action makes it really difficult to categorize this as a proper pullback, but it could have easily been construed as such by someone.

1. The market yesterday ended up range bound. Overnight in the Globex chart on the right, we see a respectable down trend began, decelerated, and then a bullish leg began.
2. The bullishness is fairly strong in this opening trend.
3. The pullback is just one sharp bearish bar.
4. Entry bar is bullish and enough for a 1:1 risk reward trade.

Follow through is a bit disconcerting at first, then eventually bursts up. But not an easy ride here.

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  #82 (permalink)
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3/18/14, Tuesday

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This once again tests the categorization here, this is more likely just an inside range trade but let's stretch the boundaries here - we can always exclude things later.

1. Yesterday resulted in a respectable reversal up, which goes against our trade thesis.
2. A pretty strong reversal at the open sends the market into a strong down trend.
3. The reversal is of medium strength.
4. The reversal bar is not the best, an inside bar requiring a wide stop. However, the entry is thin enough for a 1:1 risk reward.

The trade fails almost immediately, and fails rather extremely.

A look at A and the larger timeframe picture (not fully visible in this example) illustrates that this is in fact a complex pullback continuing from yesterday's bullish trend by the close.

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  #83 (permalink)
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3/19/14, Wednesday: INVENTORIES DAY

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No pullbacks here. There was no way to get involved in that inventories explosion down unless you know how to sell weakness well.

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  #84 (permalink)
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3/20/14, Thursday

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We do have what appears to be a perfect pullback situation at A, but entry is just five minutes prior to the Philadelphia Fed numbers so it would probably not be taken.

1. The bulls are in control at the open, even though we gap lower. The trend begins accelerating.
2. The trend after news climbs pretty strongly. In the Globex we see it's hitting a Globex top.
3. The pullback is pretty sharp, the bulls don't get much action here.
4. The first entry would have been from an inside bull bar, and it soon enough fails.
4a. The market provides a better looking reversal, but it still fails rapidly.
4b. The market tries once more to reverse, but it capitulates after which the bears firmly grab control.

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  #85 (permalink)
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3/21/14, Friday

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1. The market gapped up on the open, there was a steady trend overnight visible in the Globex tick chart.
2. The market broke up out of the intraday range and made new highs, the trend is fairly strong then begins to roll over.
3. The pullback is medium, and begins decelerating.
4. A near perfect entry bar.

The trade goes about halfway to target, then turns around and fades out.

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  #86 (permalink)
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3/24/14, Monday

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Someone may have spotted a pullback at A, but it's a very, very weak setup - the trend is very weak and the pullback retraces most of the move with equal strength. On top of that, the range is very small. This really belongs in the inner range trade category.

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  #87 (permalink)
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3/25/14, Tuesday

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1. The market was fairly rangebound the prior day. Overnight the Globex failed to breach prior highs and begins to move lower.
2. The breakout to the downside is pretty strong, echoing the bearish open of the session.
3. The pullback here is pretty brief, just one bar, and could be described as medium. The Globex illustrates both the trend and the pullback as pretty neat and orderly.
4. A nearly perfect entry bar (lower close would have been even better), with good risk reward characteristics by what would be a natural resistance area.

Instantaneous follow through, market does a measured move swing. Afterward is a nasty reversal that retraces the whole range.

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  #88 (permalink)
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3/26/14, Wednesday: INVENTORIES DAY

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It would take quite an imagination to see A as a pullback - the bull trend is too weak and the pullback too long, even though it does follow through. An inner range trade for sure.

Inventories doesn't move the market much here.

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  #89 (permalink)
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3/27/14, Thursday

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This is a questionable pullback for me because I'd like to see the market trend for at least 2 bars. But we'll look at it anyway, especially since Globex provides some helpful context here.

1. The market gapped up, and if we look at the Globex 512 tick chart on the right, we see it's a respectable bullish trend.
2. The market gives us just one bar of trending, which is pretty solid with a high close which is the only reason to merit it a proper trend.
3. The pullback is decelerating.
4. A decent entry bar, on the neutral to bearish side. On the Globex chart we see its proximity with a level.

The market sort of loses steam after an initial lift. The pullback is complex and a second entry may have been doable here but only on the Globex chart - on the 5 minute this is an inner range trade.

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  #90 (permalink)
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3/28/14, Friday

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A more proper breakout pullback.

1. The market gapped up and there was a respectable, tight bull trend (visible well on the 512 tick chart, i), but then consumer confidence broke the trend (ii). The market consolidated briefly by the session lows and then broke new, lower ground, a nice entry here on the 512 tick could have been had by iii.
2. The trend pretty decisively breaks lower.
3. The pullback is pretty strong as well, almost equaling the breakout.
4. A nearly textbook entry bar emerges offering an awesome risk reward situation.

The trade follows through with fairly minimal pullback.

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