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DAX30 Dancing + Don't forget the stop loss!!!


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DAX30 Dancing + Don't forget the stop loss!!!

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  #1 (permalink)
Västerås Sweden
 
 
Posts: 148 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 59 given, 308 received

This is my trading journal for my adventures with the DAX30.

I love the DAX, it's very liquid, has tons of trading opportunities within a day for me as I trade it with CFD's leveraged 1:500.

Contrary to popular belief, a 1:500 leverage CFD is not at all more risky - in fact, it's much less risky than 1:1 or 1:100 - you just have to do the math right!

So 6 months down the road - a bunch of money donated to the markets, a lot wiser, a lot more professional - only one ridiculous little issue remains: DON'T FORGET THE STOP LOSS!

So sometimes I forget, and it goes bad, and I fail to exit manually because I'm still bad at ruthlessly cutting losses - and bad turns to worse, turns to hell in a handbasket.

I'm going crazy about this. Forgetting the stop loss even once can ruin my entire day in the DAX.

I can read the order flow. I know how the professionals operate and how they eat the retail trader for lunch. I have 60%/40% win/loss ratio and a nice positive expectancy (if I ignore this mistake pattern). So I'm sorted, would it not be for a ridiculous crack in my psychology.

This is why trading is 100% psychology! Without it - it doesn't matter how good your system is or how fancy your market reading skills are. So it's 100%.

This is the final remaining issue before I can live as a trader and achieve financial freedom.

Right now, I gain 50-100 euros a day to the market and then lose 100-150 because of one stupid mistake a day... or I have a winning day, and the next day I start out by erasing all profits from the previous day... from one silly stop-loss related mistake. I get sloppy/lazy/unfocused/what ever it is, the end result is the same - no stop loss - and if its a bad call - I'm screwed.

If I could fix this, I would quickly compound up to several hundred euros per day...for starters.

My system works faboulously well (It's no secret, just a cfd provider that allows fractional lots + high leverage combined with spreadsheet math)- I can gain 2-5% a day with 1-5 trades - even more if I catch the entire daily trend and scale into it - but this only works if my psychology works - which is an on/off thing... it can't just work most of the time!

Tomorrow we begin! I will post all my trades and what goes on in my psychology publically - hopefully I will prevent my mistakes this way. :-)

Also, to make this a bit more interesting, every time I screw up from now on, there has to be some kind of punishment, something that I really don't want to do...

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  #3 (permalink)
West Java
 
 
Posts: 145 since Apr 2014
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Hi, congratz for the journals and thanks for sharing, i've been looking @ DAX for past 6 months and trading it for nearly 2 months now with mixed result, still can't handle the pace ... it just so fast (i'm trying to scalping it on 1 min).
Good Luck and Looking forward to your journey.

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  #4 (permalink)
Västerås Sweden
 
 
Posts: 148 since Sep 2014
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I look at it as - its as fast as you want it to be. Fast is mostly related to how quickly the price moves once you are in a position, isn't it? It's a psychological thing, I don't think it's about the DAX really because if you cut your position in half or double it - the perception of speed radically changes.

In my spreadsheet I adapt the size of position, the risk (stop loss distance) after how liquid it is (daytime, aftermarket, range day). Experiment and find a sweet spot that works for you.

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  #5 (permalink)
Västerås Sweden
 
 
Posts: 148 since Sep 2014
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Short @ 9744
Target: None, we'll see where this goes.

In profit but stop loss moved to zero as market started to range and might pop up instead.

I think this day might have a 70+ point drop in it somewhere.

EDIT: It dropped 20 points while I wrote that. :-)



EDIT:
Exit @ 9720 - This looks too muddy... i suspect it will bounce back up...

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  #6 (permalink)
Västerås Sweden
 
 
Posts: 148 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 59 given, 308 received

Long @ 9728
Profit target: 30+ points.

I think this will make a rocket launch upwards... probability 70%?



EDIT: Well... Nope it didn't, stopped out at a 5 point stop, reversed the trade, I'm now in a profitable short.



EDIT: This journal is fantastic for my trading dicipline! Seeing some stopping volume now around 9700 but I think it will punch through that and the bottom might be 80 points down depending on US open so I'll hold on to this one... stop at zero so I'm good.

EDIT: Exit @ 9706 - Reverse trade, as its going up again....I think.... stop loss still ON =)



EDIT: Nah... I don't think this will work... got out at break even, time for lunch! + 2,5% for the day.

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  #7 (permalink)
Västerås Sweden
 
 
Posts: 148 since Sep 2014
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One more before lunch... come on baby light my fire...



Yep, exit @9722 a bit risky 3R trade so it was a nice little catch still.

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  #8 (permalink)
Västerås Sweden
 
 
Posts: 148 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 59 given, 308 received

Taking aim at todays potential huge drop.

Enter @ 9711



EDIT: Still alive, placing shorts as I went up, - this time, slightly larger since that appears to be the buying climax, and it should be downhill from here, if not, the loss is acceptable as the initial trades were small, anticipacting a violent move. If we go south beyond the starting point, I will scale in as we go.

Psychologically - this was a screwup.



EDIT: Hahahaaaaaa!! I love the DAX! - Exited @ account +1% @9720 :-) But I still earned a punishment 2km jog tonight for this screwup.

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  #9 (permalink)
Västerås Sweden
 
 
Posts: 148 since Sep 2014
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I guess I'm long from here then



EDIT: Exit @9751, 2 x 20 points, thank you very much.

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  #10 (permalink)
Västerås Sweden
 
 
Posts: 148 since Sep 2014
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And....long again at the pullback.



EDIT: Wow, that was brief... stopped out at breakeven.

EDIT: At it again at 9744 ... going up.



EDIT: Way too much supply from above to go anywhere north... I'm sidelining for now to await the shakeout or downmove

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  #11 (permalink)
Västerås Sweden
 
 
Posts: 148 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 59 given, 308 received

It looks like it might be building a case for an upwards rocket launch. Taking my chances, entering again @9749.



EDIT: Supply removed, target 9800+
EDIT: More supply coming in, but I think it will be absorbed and worked through... target still 9800+
EDIT: Well.. ok that's a lot of supply...
EDIT: Stopped out at breakeven... I was right on, but didn't expext that much supply... target right now still 9800+ as the market seems ready to absorb... I guess we saw heavy profit taking from everyone who didn't get to exit at the last top peak and new shorts... trend is up, I'm long again @9740...

If the third time fails, I'm short until market close...

EDIT: Yep it went up and I had another large long at the new low there... exited as it went up, and I'm now at account 4% up so now I'm going to practice the art of NOT TRADING so I don't give that back to the market.

Summing up the day - I was a good trader today, but I screwed up the non farm payroll trade, I could have made such a killing on that one - at least I got out of it alive to tell the tale - I'm quite good at trade crisis management.

Feeling great about this. I might finally succeed at becoming a free man, out of debt, free to roam the earth as I please and engage in what ever projects I feel like.. (I'm very sick of freelancing IT...)...

Never give up! =)

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  #12 (permalink)
New York, NY, USA
 
 
Posts: 105 since Jun 2013
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I'm possibly looking into trading the Dax at some point.

I've noticed that you're frequently saying things like "I hope" it goes up, as well as 'I think we're going to get a 70 point drop'. To me that seems like you're working too much from an emotional basis rather than having some set technical guidelines you're looking at.

For example I like the short you did @ 9744 at 10:50 am, it was a good three push pattern up and the market reversed beautifully (that is my favorite setup). But I would have been out pretty fast from that, probably in the 30s as it made that push and then reversed. I would not have held it that long even though you did get a nice pop there afterward.

Going long afterward @ 9728 at 11:50ish to me is very aggressive, it's in the middle of a range and there's no level to play off of (unless I'm not seeing something to the left). The market jammed right up against resistance and bounced off. You could have technically scalped it but you would have had to been out at breakeven once it started pulling back. By contrast 9710 is a possible support level, and shortly afterward the market provided you with a beautiful double bottom right there where you could have gone long for a scalp with some nice price structure.

Shorting that subsequent up move around 13:15ish worked for you (a support turned resistance idea) but personally I hate going after turning points inside ranges (there would have to be some solid market structure to play off of and for my taste there wasn't enough of it).

Anyway, just my opinions for what they're worth...

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  #13 (permalink)
Västerås Sweden
 
 
Posts: 148 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 59 given, 308 received


Georgii View Post
I'm possibly looking into trading the Dax at some point.

I've noticed that you're frequently saying things like "I hope" it goes up, as well as 'I think we're going to get a 70 point drop'. To me that seems like you're working too much from an emotional basis rather than having some set technical guidelines you're looking at.


I would describe myself as a discretionary trader that make my decisions based on Volume Spread Analysis (daily down to 3 minutes) + what I see happen in the 1/5/10 sec tick chart + intuition.

I don't use RSI, Stochastics, MACD etc. My chart in my execution platform only use 200 and 100 EMA, (sometimes i turn on bollinger but i don't rely on them). I only rely on VSA through a third party analysis software, and the tick chart and intuition. So I am working partly from an emotional basis because I find intuition to be very useful. The chart is the sum total of human emotion and you can see parts of the order flow with the price action alone, especially in the seconds-charts.



Georgii View Post
Going long afterward @ 9728 at 11:50ish to me is very aggressive, it's in the middle of a range and there's no level to play off of (unless I'm not seeing something to the left). The market jammed right up against resistance and bounced off. You could have technically scalped it but you would have had to been out at breakeven once it started pulling back. By contrast 9710 is a possible support level, and shortly afterward the market provided you with a beautiful double bottom right there where you could have gone long for a scalp with some nice price structure.

I could see a lot of professional stopping volume and low volume professional testing of supply happen at that point, and when the market does not react down to the testing, there is no supply so professionals will usually go in and buy so it was an educated guess. The professionals can't hide their moves, they try though.


Georgii View Post
Anyway, just my opinions for what they're worth...

That's fine, we all have different ways to fish the market ocean.

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  #14 (permalink)
Västerås Sweden
 
 
Posts: 148 since Sep 2014
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Slightly late to the party, but long at 9693, I think this is an up day, haven't been in the mood for trading lately, and this is a lazy trade but stop loss is at zero so we'll see how it goes.


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Last Updated on September 11, 2014


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