It looks like it might be building a case for an upwards rocket launch. Taking my chances, entering again @9749.
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EDIT: Supply removed, target 9800+
EDIT: More supply coming in, but I think it will be absorbed and worked through... target still 9800+
EDIT: Well.. ok that's a lot of supply...
EDIT: Stopped out at breakeven... I was right on, but didn't expext that much supply... target right now still 9800+ as the market seems ready to absorb... I guess we saw heavy profit taking from everyone who didn't get to exit at the last top peak and new shorts... trend is up, I'm long again @9740...
If the third time fails, I'm short until market close...
EDIT: Yep it went up and I had another large long at the new low there... exited as it went up, and I'm now at account 4% up so now I'm going to practice the art of NOT TRADING so I don't give that back to the market.
Summing up the day - I was a good trader today, but I screwed up the non farm payroll trade, I could have made such a killing on that one - at least I got out of it alive to tell the tale - I'm quite good at trade crisis management.
Feeling great about this. I might finally succeed at becoming a free man, out of debt, free to roam the earth as I please and engage in what ever projects I feel like.. (I'm very sick of freelancing IT...)...
Never give up! =)
Last edited by itradeit; September 5th, 2014 at 09:50 AM.
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I'm possibly looking into trading the Dax at some point.
I've noticed that you're frequently saying things like "I hope" it goes up, as well as 'I think we're going to get a 70 point drop'. To me that seems like you're working too much from an emotional basis rather than having some set technical guidelines you're looking at.
For example I like the short you did @ 9744 at 10:50 am, it was a good three push pattern up and the market reversed beautifully (that is my favorite setup). But I would have been out pretty fast from that, probably in the 30s as it made that push and then reversed. I would not have held it that long even though you did get a nice pop there afterward.
Going long afterward @ 9728 at 11:50ish to me is very aggressive, it's in the middle of a range and there's no level to play off of (unless I'm not seeing something to the left). The market jammed right up against resistance and bounced off. You could have technically scalped it but you would have had to been out at breakeven once it started pulling back. By contrast 9710 is a possible support level, and shortly afterward the market provided you with a beautiful double bottom right there where you could have gone long for a scalp with some nice price structure.
Shorting that subsequent up move around 13:15ish worked for you (a support turned resistance idea) but personally I hate going after turning points inside ranges (there would have to be some solid market structure to play off of and for my taste there wasn't enough of it).
Anyway, just my opinions for what they're worth...
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I would describe myself as a discretionary trader that make my decisions based on Volume Spread Analysis (daily down to 3 minutes) + what I see happen in the 1/5/10 sec tick chart + intuition.
I don't use RSI, Stochastics, MACD etc. My chart in my execution platform only use 200 and 100 EMA, (sometimes i turn on bollinger but i don't rely on them). I only rely on VSA through a third party analysis software, and the tick chart and intuition. So I am working partly from an emotional basis because I find intuition to be very useful. The chart is the sum total of human emotion and you can see parts of the order flow with the price action alone, especially in the seconds-charts.
I could see a lot of professional stopping volume and low volume professional testing of supply happen at that point, and when the market does not react down to the testing, there is no supply so professionals will usually go in and buy so it was an educated guess. The professionals can't hide their moves, they try though.
That's fine, we all have different ways to fish the market ocean.
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