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My journal to trade by understanding market's processes and behaviors


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My journal to trade by understanding market's processes and behaviors

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 erobertsonag 
Gatineau Quebec Canada
 
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Hi all,

Did introduce myself in the trader Hideout forum - Introduction and Beginner thread, My background is there. My plan is to share my journey to understand how markets behaves. I want to understand Market Profile (MP) first and I am using Markets In Profile from James Dalton in order to to so. I heard that Mind over Markets might be better or different but anyhow, I did choose to buy the second book first and I am able to follow it without any issues. I am currently at page 104 and did took 20 pages of hand written notes. I would like to have it completed by mid September if all goes well.

The Logical Trader will be my next purchase. Recommended as being the bible of execution (while MP is the bible of context) by a futures.io (formerly BMT) Wizard, it make sense to me.

I do have my own trading plan (it is available in my post in the Trader Hideout forum. I talks about big volume levels and velocity or speed monitoring of the trading activity), but once I will be done with both books, I will decide to either add to it, or redo it. I hope the knowledge that I will gain by going through these 2 books will help me know better what would be my next learning move.

While reading Dalton's book I do look at his recorded public webinars as well. As of now I did look at his most recent (Surviving skills ...). Maybe I should start from older webinars to newer ... I am not sure. But the focus is the book and then the other book.

Many thanks to all, I will update each time I will study, it has been about 7 weeks that I am back in trying to become a successful trader after a 7 month pause, again, thanks for the honesty of futures.io (formerly BMT) introduction reality check e-mail that he sends us when we do join the group here, it did help me realize a lot of things and that I was not alone struggling with trading and my fear were the same as many others ... I did like the name of the forum as well (Hideout !!) I think it represent what we do have to do in order to succeeded, on bad day you cannot keep that bad emotions inside, you do have to share and talk about it in order to vent these emotions in order to be prepared for the next battle.

Ok enough now, I will go back studying MP.

Oh one other thing, I do work full time and finish my weeks on Friday at noon. So when I will be ready to come back in the ring, it might be as swing and/or an intraday trader in the PM of each Friday, I will see what I learn and what I feel within the next weeks and /or months.

Cio all

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 erobertsonag 
Gatineau Quebec Canada
 
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Today it is labor day so this morning I did spend about 2 hours of reading and studying. I am now at page 112 with 23 pages of notes. Actually it is more 46 pages of note since they are back and front... I will join my supportive wife in order to prepare the next week, I might look at a webinar tonight, I will see.

ER

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 erobertsonag 
Gatineau Quebec Canada
 
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Hi all,

Did looked at the oldest recorded webinar of Dalton. Now I'm confident that I am reading the best of the 2 books of Dalton (according to what he said in the webinar). THe webinar was about overnight inventory. I did get the "One timeframing higher" concept in the question period, he uses that concept to decide when the market goes back to balance. Did like it. I am more an equity trader (well I was, maybe I will switch, have to decide later) so I am not to sure how to use the pre-market data (7:00 to 9:30) with that overnight inventory ... Is overnight inventory means post market (4:00 to 8:00) ? Does his the pit session from 9:30 to 4:00 ? And then what should I do with the pre-market period ? Should it be added to the previous overnight inventory to create one single profile ? Maybe someone could help me on this one ?

Ok, time to prepare for a short week of work here ...

Tx all, good nights

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 josh 
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erobertsonag View Post
I am more an equity trader (well I was, maybe I will switch, have to decide later) so I am not to sure how to use the pre-market data (7:00 to 9:30) with that overnight inventory ... Is overnight inventory means post market (4:00 to 8:00) ? Does his the pit session from 9:30 to 4:00 ? And then what should I do with the pre-market period ? Should it be added to the previous overnight inventory to create one single profile ? Maybe someone could help me on this one ?

For stocks, you will likely find such little premarket and after hours trading activity that it's best to not think of the concept of 'overnight inventory' the way Dalton does with futures. Occasionally when there is a lot of activity it can be useful, but even the most active stocks are rather dead (these days) until shortly before the open.

The ES futures day used to run from 4:30pm ET to 4:15pm ET. Now the day is technically from 6:00pm ET until 5:15pm ET, with the settlement at 4:15pm ET. I expect Dalton uses this new time but I am not certain. So little activity happens anyway from the 4:30pm to 5:15pm window that it's a rather moot point either way. So, "overnight" is technically from 6pm until 9:30am ET, with the RTH pit hours being from 9:30am to 4:15pm.

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 erobertsonag 
Gatineau Quebec Canada
 
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Hi All,
Tired today and too lazy to read so I did consume another webinar from Dalton, Did watch How to identify day trade oportunities of July 2011. Very consistant with the other webinars and the book. I feel that I might have a real market understanding in the future ... There are a lot of stuff but all understandable and what is the the most important is that I feel it all makes senses.

I did not open any charts yet and feel proud of it since I am used to get into charts and start dreaming about things I think I see ... And loose precious time. Which is also called the Holy Grail ... So I am Holy Grail sober as of now !

Good night all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Currently at page 147 of Markets in Profile with 54 pages of handwritten notes. In a single paragraph in reference to another book (The Mature Mind of Gene Cohen) he described my 2.5 years of trading behavior via the 2 types of intelligence that we do have and what we do with both of them: Crystalised Intelligence and Fluid Intelligence. He describe my habit of going back to mechanical system in difficult time which is not good either.

I now know that we can differentiate (well he does and at least I understand) a countertrend trending day in opposite to a trending day in the trend direction by understanding the interactions on different timeframes market particpants which is reflected in the shape of the trending day profile. TWhat I am trying to explain is that the shape of a profile of an up day in a downtrend will usually be different than the shape of an upday in an uptrend .... Which is totally new to me and impossible to read with my traditional tools , volume, time based and tick based charts.

Tonight big party at Lonestar for me, my 2nd daughter is turning 16 !!

Thanks all

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Small period of study for me for this AM. I am now at page 151.

That's about it fo now,

Have a good Sunday PM all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi again,

Now at page 160 with 60 pages of notes. Not a big progess tonight but going forward ... The next pages talks about 4 different examples or scenarios, I am looking forward for these pages.

Cio

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi again,

Now at page 164 and I finally got the short-term liquidation break end of day concept (in opposition to new short sellers coming in ...). Now I understand that part !!! I am getting close to the end of the book. My next step was supposed to get into the Logical Trader but I am hesitating between the new book, making a good recap document of Dalton's book and making myself a kind of long term scheduled plan ... They are all things that need to be done anyways ...

Good night all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Covered about 9 pages tonight at page 169 now. Still learn of long liquidation and short covering from day time frame at the end of day which is very nice and interesting. It makes the closing price a kind of irrelevant on these days when comparing to the value area.

tx

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 Big Mike 
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It would likely be useful for you to mark up some charts in the journal about what you've learned as you go.

Mike

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi Mike and all,

The minute I will put something together I will post it. I only have hand written notes as of now and I thought that the knowledge might be more printed into my brain if I took the notes into my native language which is french. I want to finish the reading to make a kind of recap document for context that I will share (yes it will be in english). I have to renew my Kinetics data feed at some point, get my elite membership here, setup Market Profile on Ninjatrader in order to make a nice document that will show MP charts with my understanding of it. But I am not there yet. Your intervention is very well received Mike, many thanks.

I am 42, I have a boy of 11 years old with Tourette syndrome, 2 daughters, 16 and 18 and a full time day job, I promise what I do share here is everything I have done so far, which is reading session of 45 minutes to 120 minutes at a time. I did not looked at any charts yet excepts the one in Dalton's book.

Again if people likes to study trading velocity or transaction speed increase and decrease I do have a very nice section in my trading plan with a complete study of my own into it. I really think this could be usefull. I did re-attach my most recent trading plan to this post. If someone is interested in my SpeedInBar indicator (it might already exist, I do not know) I will post it on the forum, it will be an honor for me to do so. I also have an engulfing indicator (that can show when the engulfed bar had more volume than the engulfing bar) which might exist also already, I do not not know, if someone wants it let me know I will post it. The first section of my trading plan talks of volume levels based on post, pre and regular market volume big print. But I think it is incomplete, I was using massive volume print levels as reference levels but the Value Area approach of MP is a lot better I think but at least, I was in the right direction with reference levels based on volume ...

My plan is to add a context section to my trading plan that will probably replace the Volume Price Level section of it. I am so much looking forward for this milsestone to be completed, futures.io (formerly BMT) will be first to know that. And each day that I will add to it, I will post the updated file into this thread and probably under my own section if this is possible. But this time instead of quiting my day job to go full time trading and not being successfull for 2.5 years, I will do it more progressivly with my day job as backup, not depending on my wife's support (this is a long story, to make it short, I was trading in the AM and helping/working for her in the PM for 2.5 years but it was not financially enough for our family) and depending on someone else is not the way to go for successfull trading, at least it did not worked for me.

This PM my plan was to read for 3 hours but my boy ended up being at home sooner and I did spend about 1 hour reading instead of 3 hours. But I am ok with that now I did look at a family movie with him. I did understand that the family, the friends and socials has to come first and then trading come right after ... But this is hard when you are so passionnate about something ... But beleive me, I did put trading in front and I was full time invested into it to for 2.5 years not able to do better than green for 3 weeks in a row ... More time in front of screen does not mean more trading success ...

If my posts do not have enough content, please let me know I will post less often. But I did promise to myself that every time I will study, trade, spend time in front of screen looking for the holy grail, or whatever related to trading, I will write it into a journal until being a successfull trader.

I did attached one of my last year charts (trade journal), it did not match my most recent trading plan which compares my SpeedInbar with price MACD and price ReversedMACD but these were the trades I was taking before ... Note JCP tab, it is a very nice example of how the SpeedInBar could evaluate the validity or the health of a trend ... But you have to be in a tick based chart. At that time, to me freezing time into the horizontal axis was hiding too much information inside bar price and volume bars. The speed or the velocity of trading is something important that has to be monitored and released as an available information in order to get a feel of the market's conviction. I was doing so with tick based chart and speedinbar indicator which is simply the number of seconds spent to create a tick based bar (for example how many seconds it take for 200 trades or transactions). Pullback in uptrend and rally in downtrend has to be slower (which is not bad, giving you more time to place your order !) while each step up or down in the trend has to be faster and faster .... When a step is slower than the previous one usually the trend is not ready for another leg ... All of that is way better described in the 2nd portion of my trading plan.

This was my edge, I think it is still valid and helpfull for short term trading, on my side I know I want to go higher time frame like 30 min or 15 min or tick based chart that will contain an average of 10 or 15 minutes, something around that, I want the Logical Trader to help me for execution as recommended by MFBreakout on this forum, this will be my next step after adding the context section to my trading plan.

Ok, that is about it,

Good night all, tx Mike for pushing us,

erobertsonag

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Register to download File Type: xls Trading Journal Etienne Robertson 2013-08-23.xls (1.69 MB, 26 views)
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 erobertsonag 
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Looks like the trading plan I was refering in previous post was not attached. So here it is ...

Attached Thumbnails
My journal to trade by understanding market's processes and behaviors-trading-plan-etienne-robertson-2013-10-03-bmt.pdf  
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 erobertsonag 
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I am done with the Markets In Profile !! In the last pages of the book Dalton says: if you feel the potential and the power explained in this book then welcome to the minority !!! And I know that there is only a minority that are successfull then I am glad to learn that I am supposed to be on the good path ...

Did got my Elite membership as well today. I did update my NT to 7.0.1000.25 and installed GomBaseAndDeltaPackage2.6 and GomMP4.7. I have no data feed except free end of day from Kinetics for now (without intra-day data !) , I will have to investigate what would be the most cost effective avenue, I want minute data but I do not need them real - time since I am just in a study mode.

Ok, tx all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Did spend some time undersdanding Gomi framework (wow what a piece of code !) and how historical Tick data can get into NT ... Did download Mike's ETF historical tick data for August 2014 and copied the oneperday files for QQQ into the My Document Folder. Did try to bring some historical data of QQQ with GomCD without success ... Was looking around for answers and ended up finding the ''Where to start as trader'' webinars from Big Mike ... I did looked at the first webinar.

That is where I am, I did look at GomRecorder 2 thread as well and the Official GomRecorder QCollector thread. Do I need an intraday data feed in top of Mike's tick data files to look at historical intraday data on NT? I did find how to install GomPackage and other Gom indicators, I did find how to download and paste the tick data collected by Mike but I did not find how to actually connect or make the GomCD to actually read Mike's historical Tick data.

Did find out that I will stick with equities for now, Mike did confirm my choice in the webinar, it is a very secured environment, a lot different size is possible (sizing but also with a lot of different stock prices).

I do look forward for the Part 2 webinar which will discuss Platform, maybe my answers will be found in this webinar. Any help would be appreciate on my NT - Historical Data issue up there, thanks in advance, I did spent many hours, I think I am close to the solution but not there yet ...

Tx all

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Did look at the Thread of ''Where to start as a trader'' and the next webinar suggested by the thread is ''An Afternoon with Big Mike''. In this first 1/2 of the webinar I did learn that there is a GOM User Manual which in with I will look to fix my previous questions concerning GOM (simply search for GOM USER MANUAL in the search field). Did learn how to better use the forum, how important the Thanks button is important for those who takes the time to answer questions, how important it is to update your profile (I feel guilty now to have not an updated profile or avatar ... will try to fix this asap) and that the goal is to master one or two thing at a time. I am only at the 1/2 of the webinar, I will look at the other half probably tomorrow. THere is many, many other psychological tips in this 1st 1/2 webinar that I can personally relate to my trading journey, error that I did and that I probably still do :-( but at least I know I can review this webinar over and over and over if I want.

Many thanks Big Mike for the sharing, good night all,

erobertsonag

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alias123
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erobertsonag View Post
Looks like the trading plan I was refering in previous post was not attached. So here it is ...

Nice job on your trading plan! I was wondering how much time you've put in testing it in sim?

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 erobertsonag 
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alias123 View Post
Nice job on your trading plan! I was wondering how much time you've put in testing it in sim?

Actually it is my most recent plan that I did finalized (I do probably have 20 different versions going from system to system over the last 2.5 years) after having retake my professional day trading course for the 3rd time ... It represent the best of me but unfortunatly, I did spend about 2 weeks updating it based on my teacher's recommendation that I did received in my last retake and I did had to stop due to financial difficulty and health issues (stress to high and energy too low). So the testing period for that exact trading plan is close to zero. But it is all about execution, the plan is one thing but the performance measurements and the metrics used to measure is important. I do share this plan for the concept of transactions acceleration and decellararion, it is to me an important information (trading speed in the present tense and displayed and recorded on a histogram chart). It is not possible to collect the trading velocity increase and decrease when looking at a time based chart. My goal is not to share the system itself but the concept. For me, there is numerous basic information the market can give us: 1- price 2- volume 3- number of trades 4 - time ( fixed for everybody) and finally 5 - trading velocity. For me 100 trades of 200 shares each (total volume of 20000 shares exchange) is very different than 2 trades of 10000 shares each (also 20000 in volume). So this is the concept and it is kind of measurable with a trade based bar chart with volume and speedinbar measurement.

Ok, you guys have probably already figure that, but I like to explain it since I feel it could be usefull. My plan is to use this chart to evaluate when price out of balance is shutting off activity or is bringing new business as Dalton would say ...

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Did listen to the 2nd half of An afternoon with Big Mike webinar and wow ... Thank you Big Mike.

I will look at these webinars again and again, they are not for starter only, not at all.

Cio

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 erobertsonag 
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Sorry I am back.

Anybody new, please look at these webinars first . I do not like to give advice since I am new to the forum but this one I had to give it !

Er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi All,

Did look at the first part of the thread - Sierra vs. Ninja : why I chose ..... - and did look at the Gomi User Manual for NT.

As for the part of the thread Sierra vs NT, I did read the first 9 pages of the thread (pages of a laptop screen!), and I do have to favor SC for my needs (my current need is to get up and running asap to look at TPO 30 minutes bundle into a single daily profile ...)

AS for the Gomi User Manual, I want to thanks Gomi to share that code, but it is acutally an important overhead to understand and manage for me since it is an addon. This is not the case with SC, MP and many bid/ask related study all seems to be just built into the software package.

As for price, I was using Kinetics for NT for about 60$ USD per months for stock data while the NT platform was at no cost without any MP or TPO indicators. At SC, the package 5 which does include all MP, VP, delta and TPO, they charge 40$ USD with historical and real-time data for major stock indexes ... I will not have feed for equities, I would have to get an external data feed, which some are expensive and some are free ... I will have to investigate more on that avenue. But I think that with the SC feed that comes with package 5, I should be good to document my next trading plan ...

That is where I am, still studying the best avenue to look at TPO ...

Cio

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I had to take some time off of my trading study in the last 2 weeks, I had to take care of my family and myself, but now I am back. I did download and install Sierra Chart. I was able to connect with google finance and Sierra Chart data. I did create a Study Collection based on the TPO and the TPO value area lines. I find out that the Google data feed is not able to generate Number of Trades bar, the feed seems to be time based only (I did try the connection with both options, 1 tick and 1 second). I should be good to generate TPO charts to start adding TPO knowledge to my trading plan.

I did also re-read my old last 2 trading plans and I did discovered that some nice examples were not transferred into my last one (the one I did post in prior messages) so here is my previous one (August 2013) in attachment. I will start a new one soon, it will be a mix of my stuff with Dalton's new concepts I did learn. It will be oriented for PM trading since my trading window will be each Friday PM ... And I will post each time I add to it. I want to make myself a kind of Time Oriented Project plan in order to track and plan my realizations and book some time in my schedule so I do not feel guilty for taking time for studying. It is easier when it is planned a little bit in advance ...

That is about it for today, bye all

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Today I did clean up around my trading desk and I did post some pictures of it in the Community - Album section. I also install Sierra Chart on it and did play with the replay feature which is working very well and smoothly ... I was able to replay with a daily profile (build from 30 minutes bars) chart with a time based chart 1 and 5 minutes. I am actually struggling with colors on my candlesticks ... They are inverted ... Green down and red up ... All default settings ... I will have to investigate more to fix this. But very proud of my week-end, I was able to put some time in trading, do stuff with the family, cook ...

That it for now,

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 Big Mike 
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Considering posting your desk pics here as well:



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 erobertsonag 
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Hi Mike and all,

Did upload my trading desk pictures into the proper thread ! Tx Mike. Did find out why my candlesticks have inverted colors. The Open and Close values are inverted on each bar when connecting to Google finance data provider. Even the OHLC bars has their horizontal marks inverted ! This does not happen when using another data provider like Sierra Chart Historical Data. I will leave a message to Sierra tomorrow to let them know. Maybe Google did change their format lately ? Anyways, Google do not have tick based data so I will not use this data provider for long time, I have to figure out which one will be the best for me, I think I will stick with Sierra data provider with the equity package ...

I did replay today's market on INTC with some references lines (yesterday's VAH, VAL, POC and unchange) and did watch the daily profile being build at the same time as the 1 minute chart (with reference lines on it). Yesterday's POC and VAL (they were both close to each other) were reached at the same time as getting outside of today's VAL ... I did see responsive buyers at those levels and it did reverse to the upside ... I am planning to get a screen and audio software recorder to record myself and maybe posting video if possible, it is nearly impossible to explain what is going on when the profile is building at the same time as you watch a tick based or time based chart ... Any suggestion on a good screen and audio software recorder ? I use Gadwin screenshot and they do have a video recorder but I would prefer having the same as you guys, many thanks in advance ...

That's it for me for tonight, I will change my futures.io (formerly BMT) personal info platform from NT to Sierra right after this post ... :-)

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi,

Did find out the the SC Historical Data has equity data feed !!! And my inverted issue of bar open and close is gone with this feed ... I did left a message at Sierra for the Google Finance issue I did encountered, I will post any update. But I will stick with SC Historical Data that is for sure for me.

Not a lot of time tonight, that will be it for today !

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Finally, I did start some documentation as well as a little research on price advertisement that triggers ''responsive volume'' versus price advertisment that triggers ''new participant volume or volume that attract new business''. I did compare volume reaction when reaching high or low of previous day on JCP for this week. I did not had the chance of making a synthese out of it but all charts are in the attached document showing each day with daily, 30 minutes and 3 minute chart with previous day high and low. My plan is to get a volume sample size for when responsive volume kick in for a return to the value area versus when new participants volume kicks in for a previous high or low of day breakout. From what I did learn, we have to assess volume size at reference level to get a sense a of a potential breakout or a potential return to value area ...

I did try to find out where I can save my document so I can update it instead of uploading it each time I am adding to it on futures.io (formerly BMT) servers. If someone knows how I can do this I would like to know it.

For now it is attached to this post ... The table of content has not been cleaned up yet. It is entitle Trading Plan but it more a knowledge base and research document for now ...

Tx all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi,

Quick study period this AM. Did make a recap table of volume assessment around previous day high and low in my document. I beleive the sample size is too small but it gives an idea of what I am studying. MY next study will be the previous week of JCP with daily Market Profiles. So my charts will be different but I will try to keep the results in the same format as my current table so we will have 2 full week of study for a bigger sample size. That is the plan ...

Today I am fixing the small portion of the roof on my house, something that will give me relief since it should have been done for a long time ago ...

Good day all,

Ok, did find out that there is a File Sharing section on futures.io (formerly BMT) when I did attached my updated document ... The link is suggested in the Attached Document popup window. I will look into that the next time I will post my updated document.

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erobertsonag View Post
Ok, did find out that there is a File Sharing section on futures.io (formerly BMT) when I did attached my updated document ... The link is suggested in the Attached Document popup window. I will look into that the next time I will post my updated document.

Hi,

The file section is not for this type of document. It's for indicators. You've posted the attachment in the right location (your thread).

However, if your goal is to encourage participation from outsiders reading your thread, attaching a Word document won't do it. Basically no one is going to open a Word document. For example, I haven't and won't.

If there are screenshots in the Word document, it is better to post the screenshots directly as images in your post. If there is just text in your Word document, it is better to post that text directly in your post.

If your thread is primarily for you and you don't care about outsiders, then by all means continue the Word docs or whatever is easiest for you to organize your thoughts.

Mike

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi Mike and all,

Tx for the note Mike. Effectively, it will be hard for me to keep my thought in a structured way if I publish my latest info directly into my thread. My doc files are old version (MS Office 2002) so I think any office suite (Open Office, Libre Office, Google Docs) should open it.

I did start a second study in my document while looking at Daily Profile instead of Daily candlestick. It is for week starting on September 29th (week previous of Study 1) still on JCP. It is not completed yet but the charts are setup and day 1 (September 29th) has been evaluated. My goal is still to evaluate volume size when approaching key reference levels in order to evaluate for a potential breakout or a potential return to value area. It is in the attached doc if you want to take a look. If anybody has issues opening my files, I can post as PDF like I did in the past, no problem, just let me know.

Tx all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Here it is, after re-reading Mike's post ... :-)

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Did spent some time replaying JCP from September 29 to October 3rd to get a feel of levels and profile construction in real time. I did add 3 charts in my document and they are all for September 29th with my comments.

Feel free to look in there and comment or ask questions,

Many thanks,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Still working on making some light around volume assessment when it come to break (or fail to break) the high of low of previous day. Did change the approach, it is all in the attached PDF, some example with daily profile and 3 minutes charts, no overall recap yet but will get there ...

Good Friday night all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I think I am done with my volume assessment study as for when we can find responsive volume that will act to return to value area in comparison with volume attracting new participants that leads to breakout. Here is my conclusion (the entire study is in the attached document):

What can we say now about volume assessment when approaching key reference levels ? First, it is clear to me that there is no reference number that can be used like the horizontal line I did draw at 200 000 shares on my 3 minute chart. I will keep my line at 200 000 but I am saying that I cannot use it to reference volume level when it is time to figure out if we are in presence of responsive volume versus new participant volume. Also, trying to follow a MA for volume is also difficult and did not lead to add any major edge. Volume assessment has to be done with the context of the current and near past volume size bars. This is what I did learn. Volume has to be compared to the open, previous day close and current day volume. In order to get a feel as for volume size, you will have to look at the prior day close volume, then at the next important volume spike (which will occurs within the first 30 minutes usually) and deal with that size to evaluate if this sample size did act as resistance of key reference levels or did act as a breakout. From there and only from that moment on that day you do have a volume size as reference. If the 1st important size did act as not being able to break, then this would become your responsive volume size reference number (for example 300 000 shares) for that day and a way bigger volume size would have to come in order break on that day. On the other hand, if you see near same size volume sample (same as initial volume size) at another reference level (or at the same) you can assess that this is responsive volume that will lead to return to value area. I will try to develop an approach that will measure that initial volume size for the day . That initial volume size would either be a responsive volume size (volume that did act as a no breakout) or a volume size that would be a breakout volume size (volume that did act as breakout volume). And from this initial volume size we will be able to reference new volume size that will come later during the day to evaluate if they can be breakout or responsive volume …

Does this conclusion of volume assessment make sense to you guys ? Please, let me know.

Good Saturday all,

Er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I did add a Volume Assessment set of rules, It might change but I think I am going into the right direction. With that I did evaluate each of the last 5 days on JCP with these rules. Feel free to have a look,

Tx

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Did add some basic concepts definition to my document. I am looking to create some trading rules in a near future. A cheat sheet checklist is also on my mind.

Good Friday night all

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Did add a Day Trading Preparation and Trading Rules sections to my document. Did clean up my table of content as well. Did also add a kind of disclaimer note as well. Now I have to finalize my house roof reparation and close the pool today ... :-(

But things has to be done to free our minds ...

Ok, enough, good Saturday all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I did play a lot with config on my charts. I think I do now have a nice setup or Chartbook. I do keep the Daily Profile on the right side of the screen since we are used to look at price on the right side of the screen. But doing that I will have Value on the right side of the screen ...

I did add a little bit to my Trading document including one screenshot of my new Chartbook with Preparation Tasks identified on it. The goal of that section will be to identify clearly a nice example with screenshots from start to end with all rules.

Good Sunday afternoon all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Did added some screenshots and I am debating about my rule # 8 as how I should get in ... There is probably no real official answer to that question, it depends on me and my tolerance and patience ... Will take a break and think about that. The last section is not completed, it is a work in progress section but intersing stuff I think.

Goodnight all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

tonight I did reached an important milestone: I have completed my first iteration of my trading plan based on the Market Participants approach teached in Markets In Profiles. There is a little bit of my own believes (of course !) as for when to get in and out but important guidelines are based on what I did learn in the book. I know I did say that I would get into the Logical Trader and I was also supposed to integrate my velocity concepts in there but I do feel I might have enough with the new knowledge I am trying to digest and the content of the attached document.

I know it is a 29 pages document but if you skip the Study 1 section, it is not that big. All other sections are to the point and I believe helpful.

There will be a lot of things to add to it of course but I feel that I can say it is a complete document. I did add also a Checklist, it is also attached. No video yet but it is still in the back of my head ...

Good night all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I did ended up not taking any trade on my first official replay practice. It was an inside day with value not overlapping at all which make me doubt of my initial call to be a rotational day. I will investigate more on the definition of a rotational day versus trend day, that is for sure. I did monitor with multiple screenshots and comments in my new Trading Journal document (XLS version XP/2003) all the changes that did occurs while I was following/watching INTC in replay mode at speed replay of 1x (real market speed, no FF).

That's about it for today for trading. I finally have all the material that I was missing to finalize the repair on my roof on my house ... Will post before and after picture !!

Good day all

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I did add a Top Down approach to my prep. Tasks which does evaluate the daily and weekly trend vs bracket vs balance areas … It is Prep Task 0.5 in my trading plan. I did add a screenshot as well at the bottom of my trading journal for October 3rd replay that show the said Prep Task 0.5. In the future this will be the first top chart in the Journal. I also change the format of my Trading Journal file name for the date that charts were playing which is for this case ''Trading Journal 2014-10-03.xls''.

I did add also some information about rotational versus trend day in my ''Jim Dalton’s concepts – Markets in Profiles'' section of my trading plan. But after reviewing, it was clearly an inside day which was not elongated. It was a P shape day telling us the the short term traders (3 to 5 days) we covering their short positions (buying activities) from the last 2 down days. Nobody else were joining the buying action. And even worse, the longer TF players might have been selling into the short covering rally of the ST traders at an average good price which also cause a P formation …

Ok, here are the pictures of my house roof repair before and after the work !!

Also I did contribute 25$ to Habitat For Humanity as for our November Charity drive today.

Good Sunday afternoon all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Tomorrow I will replay October 6th in the PM and trade it on sim. I will follow INTC and JCP. I did prepare a Top Down Market Study document just to get some references on both side for the Daily and Weekly TF.

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Even if I had a winner on Friday (and I knew in advanced the outcome !!!) the drop from 34.10 back to my entry (around 33.97) in 9 minutes (3 bars) kind a left a scars inside of me. I am trying to figure out why and maybe explaining the situation might help me.

First I did got long around 13:03 @ 33.97. Fabulous entry and trade location, INTC grinded up to 34.11 (right on POC) for about 50 minutes without any serious correction. This mean that I was a happy guy for 50 minutes in a row. Then and on low volume (which I know I have nothing to be scared of) I did lost everything within 9 minutes and I was back at entry price. You know now how I was feeling at that moment. But I monitor volume, not price according to my trading plan which I also did perfectly. And 27 minutes later I finally had my volume trigger at a 2 reference level and at 70% of VA and finally got out @34.19 for a +0.22 trade.

My issue is the next one: Even if I am a winner, the winning out come was not sufficient to erase completely the pain and the stress of the 9 minutes that INTC was removing to me. Today I am ok after reviewing the trade.

Also I know that when inventory is too long it has to rebalance in order to continue its way up ... I know it but maybe it is not internalized yet ... I think that if it would have been internalized the pullback should have brought happiness instead of pain since it is a required step to go higher ...

My question is simple: Am I made to get in and get out sooner (this would have been to get out at POC for example for a +0.13 which is not bad at all either) or should I suffer to get bigger trades ?

And between you and me, if I have difficulty with pullback on winning trades, how will it be on loosing trades ??

I might have to build stronger trading muscle !!

The chart is displayed on jpg below, it shows the entire day on the 3 minute chart with entry and exit at blue arrows. For the entire trade description with multiple screenshots, please refer to my trading Journal in XLS in the previous post.

Any comments are appreciated, many thanks all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

For an obscure reason, the post I made on Friday is not there at all ... So here it is ...

Today and for my replay of October 6th 2014, I decide to follow INTC and JCP since last trade session did not offer me any opportunity. You probably figure that already if you looked at my preparation post.

I ended up going long and after viewing the responsive volume and other criterias I noted that it was the same stock and the same day as my example in my trading plan ...

I took it anyways to familiaries myself with order entry on Sierra. I did struggle with my limit exit order but manage to figured out the issue anf get backed in.

So it was a trade that I knew the outcome since I had documented it about 2 weeks ago. But I managed to nailed it right on the spot (without opening my trading plan ...).

I feel some pain at the pull back, will have to work on that ...

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Did made some adjustment in my share sizing, all in attached documents.

Good night,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Here is my daily and weekly reference levels as my top down approach for JCP and INTC. I am tired tonight, I had to work outside all week to replace a survey technician ... I am also working on getting my live account back with minimal fees ... Will keep you updated.

Good night,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

This PM I did follow INTC and JCP for October 7th 2014 in replay mode on Sierra. Zero opportunity has come to me for both stocks ... :-( But I did listen to the Order Flow webinar from Peter Davies on futures.io (formerly BMT) at the same time as watching my stocks not going back to the VAH ... More details with multiple screen shots in the attached journal ...

Might have to add a 3rd of 4th stock to watch, I would like to get involved at least in one trade per trading session ... I am at my 3rd trading session and I had only one opportunities out of 3 trading session ... Will think about that ...

Good Friday night all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Ok, I did not lost time on this one, did choose 2 other stocks that were different (sector wise) from INTC and JCP. I decided to look at JPM (banking) for October 7th 2014 and it would have gave me 1 opportunity. I also looked at POT (chemicals) and while not giving me a real opportunity I did find out that the action was quite different that INTC and JCP for that same October 7th 2014.

So here I am, I will add 2 stocks that are clearly behaving differently that INTC and JCP for a same day which should allow me more opportunities for my next trading session.

Good night all, again ...

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Did add some clarifications and characteristics to evaluate properly if we are in presence of a trend or rotational day. It is based on 4 characteristics: 1- Overnight inventory, 2- Open location (in or out of balance), 3- One Timeframing from the open and 4- Profile shape. More details at page 6 of the attached doc.

Good Saturday night all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I did watch KEY (Keycorp in banking) yesterday in replay mode since I thought JPM could have been too expensive to follow ... Without any preparation, I did watched it for fun to see what it would does since I was looking for more rotational opportunities .... Of course it went against me (and my zero preparation) and I did feel like crap for the rest of the day ...

So I will bring myself back into market study instead of trying to find more easy opportunity. The issue here is very simple: since I do have only a rotational play I do have a bias for rotational stocks or opportunities. I will not follow POT and JPM as mention in my previous post since I do already have 2 instruments to follow. Instead I will work more on preparation and I will complete my trading plan that lacks how to trade during trend days. This would have helped me trade at least INTC for October 7th replay. I also want to bring back 30 minutes bar chart and I should split my daily profile to see my instrument balancing and one timeframing ...

That is the game plan for the next days ...

Good Sunday night all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I am pretty quiet recently, I am currently in the process of changing to a new Survey firm (I am a Land Surveyor) so negociations are taking my extra time and energy.

I did setup the daily profiles to show overnight inventory and my 30 minutes bar with volume profiles on Sierra. I did document the configs, here they are:

----Sierra Chart Configuration

--Volume By Price on minute chart – 1 volume profile per bar

1-Add the Volume By Price study

2- Change the study input “Volume Graph Period Type” (row #2) to “Multiple Profiles Fixed by Bar Count”

3- Change the study input “Number of Bars for Fixed Bar Count” (row #5) to 1

4- Depending on how thick you want to see your horizontal volume bars you can set the study input “Ticks Per Volume Bar” to 1 to add price refinement to the volume bars

5- Change the study input “Display Volume in Bars” (row #17) to “Total Volume”

5- Change the study input “Highlight Point Of Control” (row #) to “Yes”

6- Change the Subgraph “Volume Bars Outline anf Fill Colors” colors to light gray (both, outline and fill color)

7- Change the Subgraph “Point of Control” color to light pink

8- To see the pre and post market (Evening Session) profiles: change the study input “Use Separate Profile for Evening Session to “Yes”. Then from your Chart Settings, enable Use Evening Session and set your Evening Start time at 16:00:00 and your Evening End time to 09:29:29

-- Daily TPO Profiles with Overnight as separated profile

1- To see post and pre market (Evening Session) as a separated profile change the TPO study input “New Period At Day Session Start When Using Evening Session” to “Yes”. Then from your Chart Settings, enable Use Evening Session and set your Evening Start time at 16:00:00 and your Evening End time to 09:29:29

I have my demo account back with my trading firm, live account next week ...

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I am slowly getting back here. Did some clean up in my trading plan (removed the Study 1 section).

That is about it for now, I am still fighting on how to choose my stocks for my Friday PM trading sessions ... Might just pick up the most active for the day ...

Good night all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all and happy new year to everybody !

Did trade the live market this PM with my sim account. Did miss DIS (Disney) on the long side @ 14:39, I kind of choked but it was a good pick. I was telling myself it was building value lower (5 wide while the POC was 8 wide with about 11 other levels @ 8 wide too, all above my entry price ...). Did manage to take INTC (Intel) on the short side later to make a 0.08$ for 200 shares. The end of day volume came in play which triggered a defensive get out rule of mind ... But did follow it ...

The attached spreadsheet shows all, the 3 min chart and weekly chart are on the right side on the spreadsheet. They are visible on 2 screen wide or by scrolling to the right.

Goog weekend all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I had 2 very emotional days around my kid's school on last Wednesday and last Thursday. My kid has Tourette Syndrum and it requires a lot of follow up with everybody (including school director and teachers) and also a lot of involvement to let them know that the good old reward/punishment program with color charts does not work at all for kids who got neurological problems. Actually when you show the color cards it gets them heated up even more and the anxiety and the risk of explosion gets higher, not lower !! So to make a long story short, they were trying to put in place that kind of system ... We had to get to the psychoneurologist, breif her on the situation and now she will tell them that this system is not ok with our son ... We also had a meeting with the school director on Friday AM that went well ... They are full of good intention but with the wrong tools, that's about it. We did authorize them to talk with the psychoneurologist to find the proper tools - ideas - to improve the situation.

All of this to let you know that I did skip my Friday trading session since was not in a emotional state to get in front of chart. It took a lot of discipline to do it but today I am glad I did follow this rule ... My plan is to take back my Friday afternoon for tomorrow PM or Tuesday PM, I will see how it goes at work. Also I would like to trade Friday PM of this week as well.

I also learn that my kid is hooked up on online gaming which is totally not good for him ... He is 11 so we do have to replace that activity with something real ... Any extreme sports and activity (with the proper safety equipment) is apparently what works best for them ... And the injury risk is apparently way lower than the damage the online gaming could do for those kids. It generates the same drugs in their brain than the online gaming but in real life so ... I am working on some snow rails around the house and will try to get some air on the snowboard being pulled by the snowmobile !!

Good Sunday afternoon all,

er

Good

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I jump into something at the end of day and got a small looser. Multiple rules not respected, I got long below the VA on a profile 4 wide around 15:45 ... The thing is that the POC was 5 wide and there was 4 wide above the VA as well ... So it was a kind of down directional day with multiple profiles within the daily profile ... I knew it for all PM that I was not in presence of a rotational day (on these days the POC usually act as magnet) but I lost patience and my mind made me pick it anyway ... Also Risk/Reward rule was not followed either, I forgot to check it ... :-( More detail in the attached spreadsheet with charts ... Its been 2 weeks that I did not trade or watch charts, I have to get more involve and I need to know my rules on the top of my mind ...

I was not in a calm environment this did not helped either.

I have to refocus and know better my stuff ...

Good week-end all

ER

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I have been busy with many stuff and did put my trading on the side for some time. I am back. I did talk a lot about rotational day vs directional day and how many stock should I follow and or watch and/or pick for a particular day. Watching too many is not good (hard to stay focus) while watching only a predefine list (like always the same 4 stocks) can lead you to watch something that is dead and not getting into any trade (especially for me since I trade in the PM).

So I came with the next idea: I have revised my stock universe down to 24 symbols. The first step will be to choose the best 4 stocks that shows the best rotational day characteristics potential out of my 24 stock universe. From there, I will follow only these 4 symbols for the rest of the day. I might adjust the number of stock to watch, 4 may be too much, I will see how it goes. But at least I will stop searching all of the afternoon everywhere and I will be able to focus on stock that have real time good potential rotational day characteristics. I did create a small form to help me pick my top 4 symbols. It is attached with the current post.

Tomorrow will be a study/revision/preparation day and I do plan to trade live Thursday.

That's about it for now,

Good evening all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Ok,

A neutral trade for me today. I tend to pickup active stocks buy using high daily volume while my goal is to stay and trade rotational days ... This is kind of opposite ...

I will try to come up with a better way for screening my stocks (from my new list of 24 symbols). I will use the less active stocks within my list to start with. My goal is to pick up 4 good potential stock that will give me good rotational opportunities in the PM.

Today I did play MPEL but it was an active stock and the profile was elongated. I splitted it to make it look like more of a symmetric profile ... :-( It was not a bad entry but it has also multiple errors like the risk/reward ratio not being respected ... Ended up with a 0.03$ gain for watching the market all PM ... And a live trade from 3:01 to 3:59 ...

There was also numerous big volume spike during the day, I guess the large guys were getting into MPEL here and there, the big prints were in the middle of the profile most of the time ...

Tomorrow I will work on stock picking only, no trading and will see from there.

Good night all,

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi guys and girls,

It was hard for me to accept that I spend all of the afternoon yesterday to get only one single neutral trade. From 4:00 to 5:00 I took the time to fill my journal, post my comments here on futures.io (formerly BMT) but I was still not comfortable inside for a good part of the night and I finally digest it around 9:00 AM this morning.

Time is the most precious thing we have and it hurts when you blow it. It all start down on how I did not manage properly my stock picking yesterday. I ended up making a very poor stock pick and from there, it was hard to trade properly with elongated profiles while you have rules for symmetric profiles. I know I repeat myself here but I want to have a very strong stock pickup process so I can expect to trade exactly what I want.

I also have another play in mind is a late afternoon play on gap days. I have to define properly the criterias for these days so I can pick these stocks too. It is in my mind but it is not defined in my trading plan and this is what I kind of did yesterday. Dalton talks sometimes of the late PM plays on gap days so I have to focus on that since it is a defined play that matches my trading period.

So, 3 things to be done here around stock picking:

1- Defines set of criterias for regular rotational day with an open in balance

2- Defines set of criterias for regular rotational day when open out of balance (gap)

3- Internalize the criterias so I can quickly perform excellent stock picking

Also, I did find a way to practice stock picking with the replay feature on SierraCharts:

1- Open the replay window
2- Set your 3 min chart on any previous day at 12:30 (12:30 is usually the time I got in front of the market)
3- Hit the play button
4- Hit the pause button

From there you can change the symbol on your linked charts and each chart (including the daily profile and volume profile) will load at 12:30 on that selected day. From there you can evaluate the daily profile at 12:30 for each of your stock universe (me 24 symbols) while being at night or during the weekend. After your pick is done (I personally pick 4 symbols), you can replay your pick at fast forward 5X for example or even faster for the rest of the afternoon and see if your pick provided good opportunities or even trade it on the replay feature if you want.

Ok enough, it is time to work on the stock picking process, it is the foundation of my approach, it has to come first.

Will keep you updated with new documents that provides what I am repeating here ...

Good PM all, good trading for those who will trade on this Friday PM,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I did my share of holy grail on Friday. It did remember me that focusing on your own method is the way to go and this is what I did after. Worked hard on Saturday and Sunday on the task I did submit in my previous post. The task number 2 (2- Defines set of criterias for regular rotational day when open out of balance (gap)) is the only thing that has not been done. But the criterias around rotational days that did gap is defined within the ''Jim Dalton’s concepts – Markets in Profiles'' section of my trading plan.

Task number 1 (1- Defines set of criterias for regular rotational day with an open in balance) is now the following (also the section ''Day Trading Preparation – Rotational Days'' in my trading plan which has been heavily revised):

--------------------------------------------------------
Day Trading Preparation – Rotational Days

Preparation task 1: Choose instruments that has rotational day charateristics – evaluate the 6 following criterias:

1- Shape of the profile, symmetric (mandatory and most important)
2- Overnight Inventory and short term trader's reference levels acting as resistance or stalling prices area
3- One timeframing from the open
4- Open In Balance or Out of Balance
5- Daily volume
6- Watch for mega volume print within the day

Lets take these 6 characteristics one by one with one example on a chart: INTC (a symbol that I watch often) at 12:30 no later than last Wednesday:

1- Daily Profile shape

I got into the market around 12:30 which gave me the chance to evaluate the current day's profile. To be in a rotational day, you need (absolutely mandatory) to have a symmetric profile (not elongated, no multiple distributions and no P or B shape). The profile has to show a regular bell curve (only one) with no mega elongation on both side.






First it is pretty obvious as for the non elongated shape. Second the bell curve is (at this point) made of only one distribution.

2- Overnight Inventory and short term trader's reference levels acting as resistance or stalling prices area

Here is a quick recap of day and short term traders reference levels:

A- Overnight high and low (not the VAL neither the POC of the overnight session)
B- Opening
C- Unchanged
D- Previous day high or low
E- Halfback
F- High volume nodes
G- Current day high or low (this is not specified officially by Dalton but lets study it)

A- Here is the same example with overnight session shown and with reference levels shown:




Does overnight acting as resistance ? Yes, actually both extremity did act as resistance

B- Does the opening seem to limit price action (doted orange line) ? It try to go upper and failed for 3 attempt in the morning so the open is in the limit high zone so, yes on a scale of 10 we can give a 7 at least.

C- Does unchanged seem to limit price action () ? In this case, it is similar as the opening reference level. So yes

D- Does the previous day high or low acting as resistance ? Look at the YHOD line. Price went 3 tick above and that was it. So yes, YHOD acted as resistance

E- Does halfback act as resistance (purple dot on the profile) ? Period 3 and 5 stop at 2 and 1 tick respectively from that level. Lets look more in depth on the 3 minute chart:



First of all, the current HOD and LOD (and by definition halfback as well) were defined within the first 15 minutes of trading and has never been modified since. So halfback is at 33.66 since 9:45. Around 10:15, halfback kind act as a magnet or stalling area. 2 bars either open or closed within 1 or 2 tick of the 33.66 level while one bar actually opens right on it. Around 11:09, 3 bars closes exactly at halfback while 3 others went above and closed lower. Around 12:00, 4 green bar closed at halfback while 4 other crossed the said reference level in either up or down direction. So I gave this a 9 out of 10 if not a 10 on 10 for halfback acting as a reference level.

F- Does the high volume nodes act as resistance and or magnet ?



Ok, here I added a daily volume profile on my 3 minute chart and I added a 30 minute chart with individual volume profile in each bar. The pink section is the daily volume profile POC @ 33.67. It is situated at 1 tick of halfback (33.66) and at 2 tick from the TPO POC (33.64). The answer is yes, the volume POC acted as a magnet on 12:21 on the 11:36 movement down

G- Does the current high or low of day act as resistance ?

Morning low was established early @ 33.56. At 11:30, two 3 minute bar stop at the exact same reference level right on it (33.56). So yes, the current low of day act as resistance


3- Does the chart did one timeframing from the open ?

When looking at the splitted daily profile we see that the three first 30 minute bars were inside bars which is the definition of a short term balance. So, no one timeframing, 10 on 10

4- Did INTC open In Balance or Out of Balance ?

It did open inside the previous day but at the top of it. So it did open in balance but very far in the day range. So I would say a 5 on 10 for this characteristic

5- Daily Volume

Participants in rotational day are the day traders and the short term traders. They have a lot less capital than the intermediate and/or the long term trader. So a small daily volume (less than half of the average volume since we are already a half of the day – assuming the volume is evenly distributed within the AM and the PM) will be the clue as of the long term and the intermediate term are not participating (or at least the did not participate as of 12:30). Lets look at our daily volume at 12:30:



The brown line in the volume section is a 50 SMA of the daily volume. The blue line is the half level of the average volume for that day. As you can see, at 12:30 (near than half of the trading time as been already spent) the daily volume is somewhere around half of where it should be to get an average volume day. This is the kind of daily volume print (25% or less daily volume at half of the trading day) we are looking for to define a rotational day. 10 on 10 for this sample !!

6- Watch for mega volume print within the day

This might need some clarification to begin with. Some times I see mega volume print into the middle of the profile distributed here and there. By mega print I mean 3 minute volume bar that can be like 8 or more time the average volume. And these print, as I mention earlier, are situated within the VA (not at any extremity in particuliar) which tells me that the long term or intermediate term participants are averging into that instrument or stock here and there. So, when I see this kind of volume prints it tells me that they do participate on that specific day and you are most like like into a trend day.

In the current example, there is no mega volume print during the day. The open volume has to be excluded for this volume evaluation

Now we need to speed up the process of stock picking. The daily volume (criteria 5) will be the first speed screening step .On you 24 stock universe, pick only the stocks that are at 25% or less of their volume SMA 50 at 12:30. From there, evaluate the shape of the profile (criteria 1), the day and short-term trader reference levels (criteria 2) and the onetimeframing action (criteria 3). Lets assume that this second screening activity did screen the list of 12 symbol to 6 symbols. As for the third screen step, evaluate the other criterias which are: Open in or out of balance (criteria 4) and the mega volume print (criteria 6). This process will be defined with a checklist sheet called Rotational Day Check. Pick your 4 top rotational day instruments.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

The charts images are missing, I have to figure out why the Insert Image button does not allow me to choose a local file (only URL) but I did attached my completed trading plan (most recent version in PDF for nice and detailed images of my Preparation and screening process. OK I did find how, refer to the wiki section of futures.io (formerly BMT) for the article: ''How-to Capture and Upload a Screenshot'', BigMike did a very nice and detailed video on this topic.

I feel I need to add the gap up feature which usually gives us late afternoon run according to Dalton (good for me since I trade in PM only), ok I will work on this I think ... Because if I do not define it properly and I know it has good potential it will haunt me each time I see that kind of situation ...

Also I did attached my most recent Checklist, the Rotational Day Check worksheet has been totally redone. I will chage the order later, I did practice it a little bit and I feel that evaluating the Daily Volume, the Profile Shape and the OneTimeframing action from the open are 3 criterias that goes well together as a first screening pass.

But enough for today, I have to do some task here like going to the gym, drop the skates for blade repairs, do the grocery for the week and the weekly budget as well ...

Good Sunday all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I did practice my stock screening process for past days. I did choose 5 Fridays of January and February 2015 and it went like this:

The screening process did take me around 25 minutes for each day (I am pleased with that, I start at 12:30 so around 13:00 I should be watching my 4 top pick stock) and I had always 3 to 4 stock that were meeting the rotational day criterias properly. So this objective was reach, with a basket of 24 stocks I did end up with the target amount of filtered stock which was 4.

Of course, I did evaluate the results of these chosen stocks for the rest of each trading period. I did replay the market at fast forward for each stock for each day and I ended up with the next result:

January 16 with 4 stocks (AIV, STLD, TEX and X): Only one opportunity and it would either be a looser or a neutral trade

January 23 with 3 stocks(MGM, CMCS and AKAM): Zero opportunity

January 30 with3 stocks( AKAM,GM and GT): Only one opportunity and it would either be a looser or a neutral trade

February 6 with 3 stocks (GNW,STLD and INTC) Zero opportunity

Feruary 13 with 4 stocks (INTC, GT, CBG, TEX) : Only one opportunity and it would have been a winner

The result were not what I was expecting.

This was very negative and my ego was touched !! But at least, I did tested it and it saved me a lot of time to discover this situation ...

So the screening process is ok I think, it is my execution rules that keep me out and even when it gets me in I ended up with a win/loss ratio of 1 winner for 2 looser, not the best situation. The biggest issue for me is not having enough trading opportunity.

While being depressed at seeing my result I did a bit of research on bid/ask difference volume bar and went back to tick chart (number of trade bars) and added volume profile on each bar ... I think I discovered something that I did not quite understand but was part of my trading plan which is ''high volume nodes'' as being a short term reference level according to Dalton. Here is my interpretation of that reference level:



I did added the following day and that same level continues to act as resistance:



This is a 40 trades per bar which gives an average of 3 to 4 minutes on both day for each bar.

Does the comments on my chart make senses ?

I would like to get a better knowledge around ask and bid volume to get a better execution plan. This might help me getting more trading opportunities. I will do some research on that topic on futures.io (formerly BMT).

Also I did notice a push down of the low of day on that same day for the same symbol (CBG):



I know that to break it usually has to attract new participants (higher volume) and tempo will accelerates (both according to James Dalton). Looking at BarTime and Volume on the CBG3 chart (being a trade based chart) not moving at all when the LOD was pushed around 13:33, can we get long there pretty safely ? I would think so, what do you guys think ? I might try to orientate my executions around these kind of behavior/pattern that touches certain reference levels without activity increasing ...

Thanks all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I did review my results for a second time. I did find out that I do screen stock based on daily volume comparison at 12:30 with the volume SMA 50. My plan was to make sure that I was in a low volume day and for that I was looking to be no more than 25% of the SMA50. I did find out that I should compare my current volume with recent rotational days to get a better perspective instead of comparing it the SMA50. This will be my change number 1.

I did notice also that having the open near the center of the previous day's range was neglected in my first practice. I will add some emphasis on the important element for screening for rotational day.

I will perform another practice based on this modification and will keep you updated.

Good night,
er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I did looked at some webinars on futures.io (formerly BMT), did watch Damon Palvatos most recent and Linda Bradford Raschke webinar 1 and 2. I did change my stock screening volume criteria for the 1st 30 minute of trading of the day, this is what Linda does to evaluate if she is in presence of trading range day or a trend day, I do compare the 9:30 to 10:00 est trading volume with an SMA 10 to get a score based on a scale of 5. I do set my session time to 9:30 to 9:59:59 in order to see only the first 30 minute of each day so it is easy to compare with previous day volume.

I did find out that all of my stock that I did screen gave me significant move in the PM but not necessarily rotational or range move. Some were breakout while other were return to VA but all gave significant moves which was an unexpected but interesting result since I do trade in the PM only. I did test 5 days, my day number 1 is attached with this post including my screening process and the actual charts (one screen capture @12:45 and one screen capture at the close) of the selected stocks.

I did review my results and when I do look at my charts I still feel that I am clueless. It makes me anxious (I am not sure if it is fear of trading, lack of confidence in my execution plan, lack of knowledge or maybe a little bit of everything) but I decided to listen to that anxiety. Hopefully it is not playing the holy grail game again. I know that I did engage myself at the beginning of my futures.io (formerly BMT) journey to get the context with Dalton (which I feel I did a good job as of now) and get the execution from the book The Logical Trader (which I did not did at all) and I think this is the part that I have pushed that is missing to me right now. With the help of Damon's and Linda's webinars I will to redo my execution plan and perform some testing on the stock I did screen to see how it goes. I am kind of replacing the Logical Trader here with Damon and Linda's work for now.

I am already reviewing Damon's webinar for the 3rd time today, this webinar is full of content and it will be the core of my new execution plan.

Alright, it took me some courage to right this, I feel I have change methodology so many time in the past, now it is not really a change I believe, it is more a completion of a formal execution plan but I still feel strange and guilty about it but lets see how it goes with some veteran skills into my trading plan ...

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Saturday morning here and it is still -20 degree Celsius ... But it is good for my trading, the office is very quiet which allow me to spend more time on my trading !

Multiple things I want to address and share :

1- I need to trade more and stop waiting for the perfect trading plan.

2- I need to accept that I will have loosers (and learn to digest loosers)

3- I want to share with you my new execution plan (heavily influenced by Damon Pavlatos)

4- I did review the results of my most recent stock picking process and on each stock that I did choose it ended up having an end of day move (not bad for a PM trader !)

5- I have a shorter trading plan (I got rid of some stuff and created different documents for knowledge base and studies) which contains 14 pages instead of 21

6- I have a much simplified trading rules checklist with a visual reference example on it.

So like my wife has been told around perfection at her last day job, if you are ready @ 70% that is ok, we will wing it like this !! Knowing that a perfect trading plan/strategy do not exist, it could end up that my perception of 70% might be in fact even higher ... We will see.

I will monitor rules and winners and loosers and money as well. But I have ZERO win/loss minimal ratio and ZERO minimal money to make. My plan is to take 10 live (or replay) trades to learn to digest my loosers.

Ok, enough now lets start with a first trading session with my new execution plan ...

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Did play the market with AKAM and CBG from 12:45 to 13:30 for November 7th 2014. It was a winner and a super entry. Just before getting long I did cancel 2 short entry orders that I notice before being executed that rules were not respected. And the the long side came in about 25 minute later ... Check this out :





My rule is to get out at most recent pivot which I did, 0.02 lower than high of day. I did work hard for the last days and it paid off ...

To be continued tomorrow AM ...

Good Saturday all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

No trade for me today. I had only one opportunity on a pick that I put in third place while it should have been my top one stock to watch. Anyways, did learn to listen to my system, and being calm.

What really happens is that I ended up with a top 3 stock to watch. I do not want to follow more than 2 so I pick 2 of my 3 top pick. The one that I put aside (I did find that after the trading session) was actually the one that did have the best score on my pre-screening sheet ... And of course, it was the one that would have gave me one opportunity.

But I am ok, I have to learn to live with zero trading day as well, but looking at the score of your system is something to not neglect ...

Good night all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I will be trading tomorrow PM. Looking forward to stick with my real best pick and having some opportunities.

Ok, going to be bed now,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I am very glad of my afternoon. I finally pressed the button many times !!

Trade 1 was a small loosing trade (stopped out) and I should have re-entered 2 or 3 bars later which I did not ... Afraid ... (GM)

Trade 2 went well and executed perfectly (GNW)

Trade 3 (GM again) did triggered when I was long in GNW. Did set a Range order on GNW and everything was find. Got long in GM (200) and this went ok. Did set my Range order for GM and once I press the sell button I ended up being short 200 on GM !! So I bought 200 @ mkt to get out of the wrong side. Went back in long 200 again. I assume I did an error in my first range order so I did make sure this time my range order was properly setup. Hit the sell button again, same behavior, I do end up being short 200 again !!. Bought 200 @ mkt again to get out of the wrong side ... again. This was enough, I was already long GNW so I abandon GM on the long side. Of course you know how these kind of situations usually end up ... Yes, GM trade 2 would have been an excellent trade if I would have got in a 3rd time by managing my trade not using the Range Order ... I think there is an issue when I am long 2 stocks when I try to set a second range order on my execution platform ...

Charts are in the spreadsheet attached (including GM trade 2). I added a SMA10 close as rule (SMA10 has to point into trading direction), Pavlatos talk about that in his webinar on futures.io (formerly BMT) but I did watch another webinar on his web site (34 years of dos and don't) and he definitely uses that moving average as a criteria. Very good webinar, many thanks Damon.

I think I feel I am in a kind of zone here, I really like my most recent execution plan, I am not anxious and it brings me confidence. Today, on both of my picks, I had afternoon movement which is great. This is due to my stock screening process which still works and deliver PM movements.

That is it for now, next trading session will be Friday.

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

2 loosers for me this PM. Both with MBT. Charts are attached. I feel ok, I did pull the trigger twice and within my daily loss rule. Also, all of my rules were respected. The stock was flat for hours and then it gives a bump up, then down then went back up into the initial zone, I tought they were collecting stops on both sides and my rules were all aligning for the long side so I jumped in but it was late in the afternoon like 3:15 ... Stopped out. Another opportunity came around 3:40 ... Had to get out at close, it did not went anywhere ...

Will do some replay as practice this weekend.

Will keep you updated

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

While digesting my non profitable Friday afternoon I did start to review my rules and question myself (yes I know, did the holy grail research again last night for about 3 hours, which is not bad actually ...) and did spent some times reading Linda Bradford Raschke Professional Trading technique document. Since my trade was a flat stock for most of the PM I doubt that volatility (low) was my issue so I did read the ADX section of the said document. I also review one of the 4 principles of the market according to Linda which is a continuous variation from contraction and expansion. To make a long story short, I think I will look at the ADX in the AM when screening my stocks (I will look at a decreasing ADX in the AM and/or a low ADX around noon or turning up around noon, it might help find stocks that are ready for some movement in the PM.

I did start a replay of November 7th 2014 (replay that I did start in the past but never ended the afternoon) so I wanted to finished it before taking November 8th. I did nailed AKAM again on the retest of the high. Charts are attached (AKAM2). I did adjust my get out rule since I had a PAV reversal bar against me. But it was a bottoming tail so instead of getting out I did move my stop 1 tick below the body (some discretionary live rule adjustment !!! wow I did it !!). It did touch the SMA30H but did not closed into it. But the volume increase was so nice and strong, I had to adjust on the SMA30H rule as well. And technically, the rule was followed anyways because the rule says that price must close above the SMA30H which it did. This is the perfect example of what Palvatos talk when he says that the most important rule is the volume rules. All the other indicators are in support to the trade.

Here is the chart in question:


It is the Holy Grail setup of LBR as well (or pretty close to) which I did read last night too ...

So I am planning to replay November 8th tomorrow morning ...

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Here's the picture:



Did start to use the ADX not really knowing what I was doing ... Not to sure if it is because of that, probably ... Who knows, Feeling like crap now ... It is hard, it is hard ...

Kind of same thing as 2 days ago, flat/range situation and did try to go with breakout ... At least I went on the other side after and I knew where was support .. But my risk reward ration was totally blowout on my second trade anyways ... Revenge trade with some success ...

This thing is taking so much time and effort, and the worst is that I am the issue, I change stuff, I lost focus, I change stuff, I lost focus, I change stuff, I lost focus, again and again and again and again !!!

Here is the other one I was watching :



Not able to get in GT anywhere according to my rules

Alright enough now, I am desperate today, I might have to admit that this activity which I like a lot, is not for me at some point ...

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 erobertsonag 
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Ok, I am taking a trading pause for a week. Will see from there how I feel.

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Alright,

I was taking a pause to see how I would feel not working on my ultimate goal which is becoming a professional trader and I feel more crappy not having a goal in life than having to deal with losses and feeling that I am wasting time !!

Dam if you do, dam if you don't !! So the only way out is to work, work and work towards my goal and try to manage the down sides that comes with my dream ...

I did join many years ago a group called Canadian Society of Technical Analyst (CSTA). I did assist at 2 monthly meeting before being involved with my professional Trader program. Once I got into my professional program I dump the CSTA but I will go back. They actually get together once a month, there is a chapter in my region and they do receive KEVIN J. DAVEY this month, he is a professional Trader and did win some algos competitions. He specialize in strategy development process. I will do some research on him on futures.io (formerly BMT) after this post. The goal here is to see others of our breed, you know, it might help me manage my difficulties.

Also, I will address the thing that kind of knock me out here which was playing with that new indicator (ADX) without really knowing what I was doing and not really knowing what it was measuring and not really knowing what it was acutually calculating ... I took the idea quickly from Linda's document just knowing it was following contraction and expansion (this is what I remember, it might not be that at all !) but without any validation, preparation, testing, you know the pattern, just hoping that it will change your trading to success in an easy add-on ...

So yes, I will get involved with contraction and expansion of the market (kind of same thing as rotational and trend day), I think it is the most important thing to look out since it usually dictate if we are in a range or trend day and we know that a range and a trend day does not trade the same way. I will review properly that section of Linda's Professional Manual, I will make sure I understand the concept I am trying to measure, then I will review how the indicator gets its value (understanding the math formula) and after that I will try to evaluate based on the value of the indicator and based on the slope of the indicator if Linda's saying are really useful when adding this concept to my existent rules. Pavlatos also refer to that indicator in one of his video so I am confident about the result but we do have to do the work of verification and validation in order to believe and this is the step I did neglected which end up hurting me.

LBR also explain the 4 basic concepts of markets in her Prof. Trading Technique manual. This is the foundation I believe and they are simple concepts. I will make sure that I understand the mapping these concepts with Pavlatos and LBR indicators.

Ok, time to work now, I am still debating to follow only one or two stock here and dumping my screening process, this will help me focusing on determining the current environment (range or trend). This habit comes from my Day Trader school and program but here everybody seems to be following only one to three instruments, including Pavlatos, Big Mike, Linda, nobody is screening for intraday trading. I will do my contraction/expansion study on only one stock (I will use AKAM), it might help me resolve this important dilemma.

Bye now,

er

I will also

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 erobertsonag 
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Ok, Kevin has been giving webinar right here on futures.io (formerly BMT), so Thanks Big Mike, now I know I am in good hand for my next meeting !

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

First I did play a lot with the ADX this week-end. I had a hard time finding a good utility to it directly on the 5 minute chart. What I ended up finding was to watch a lower timefame while the higher timeframe was showing an ADX above 25 and rising. For example I did liked a lot the 1 minute charts when the 5 minute chart was showing a rising and above 25 ADX. This was the conclusion of numerous hours of observations, I need to make a small official study of that observation. This might give me a better way to find trending moments and from there I can use trending techniques.

Also I went tonight at my CSTA meeting (Kevin Davey was doing a webinar). Kevin is very advanced, his edge consist of mechanically trading numerous strategies on numerous uncorellated instruments (ex, gold vs euro vs oil) which give a smooth up equity curve. I did met the organizer, great guy, they also do a study day one Saturday per month, usually one member presents its strategy and other ask questions after. I will see, I was tired tonight, I might just be searching outside (again) while my answers should be found inside ...

I did subscribe to the elite Price Action Journal thread. I will try to start looking that thread as well.

That was my update for the last several days,

Good night all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

First, I did try to figure out how the ADX can help with strenght and after spending multiple hours over the week-end, I am not able to get a quick visual edge even when using 2 TF. So I dumped that study.

I try to focus and learn more on contraction and expansion and I kind of trusted myself this PM of old pattern knowledge I got from the past.
Also, I did not screen for stock this PM. I came with the idea of watching my favorite stocks and my mind was setup on X and AKAM. I was lucky, X was strong to the up side since the morning. I did watch INTC as well on the side but stick with X and AKAM for 80% of the time.

I decide to trust one of the 4 important rule LBR explained and it is that trend has usually more odds to continue than to reverse.

I also trusted the SMA10 and the SMA30 on my 5 minute and did try to pick an entry on the 1 minute using my regular rules play (I have only one play anyways but more entry when looking at 2 TF)

I did remember of the megaphone pattern that usually gets back to the middle and go from there and this is exactly what the 1 minute gave me before giving me most of my regular signals: here is the result:





I did not follow my rule for exit, I chocked, it was taking too much time, I am ok with it. But it went at exactly 1 tick above my initial target (yes, I would have been executed). Not bad

The megaphone old trick did me confidence to get into that one, which is not part of my trading plan but all the rules were there so nothing not followed either anyway ...

I did notice also the contraction on my exit (triangle) and I know something was going to happen but I was exausted of following my initial trade but I am proud of having draw these lines while it was shaping ...

It always a balance between trusting yourself and following rules and sometimes binding a little bit your rules ... not an easy task, well for me ...

Good week-end all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Did downsize my trading plan, now a 9 pager doc. No more screening for me I will watch X and INTC only.

I did add a trading direction rule in my trading plan to give me a bias. EMA20 + SMA30 must be in same direction and that direction is the direction to go. This is on my long term chart, 1000 trades for INTC, 300 trades for X.

The short term chart is 5 time smaller, 200 trades for INTC and 60 trades for X.

I tried to mimic a 5 and 1 minute charts.

As for setup, still the Palvatos inspired setup and this will be on the short term chart to be taken.

I got my live account back officially yesterday, will trade it tomorrow PM.

Did start to look at PAT, did watch some video form Mack, actually I start to like drawing trend lines (which I rejected in the past), I totally see the flexibility of that method that zero indicator can match due to their fixed parameters

Did added my latest trading plan.

Good night all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Got a small looser and a small winner which offset to the green side today. Went well with the execution platform as I was trading real money today. Actually I do calculated that my previous live trade was in 2012 ...

I did miss one entry, I stick with my direction rule but this was the one to hit ... And the worst is that the trading direction (SMA30) was wrong because of the gap this morning ... Anyways, here are the results:







INTC kind of went totally crazy fast at 3:30, the 200 trades bars went from 2 minutes to 5 seconds up to the close ... Is this what Palvatos describe as ETF funds imbalance correction at the EOD ?

Good week-end all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

First I decided to add another PM session in my week and the plan is to trade on each Tuesday and Friday. I did started today. I had 3 loosers, I was totally controlled by the fear of missing today ... I got short on X 3 times while INTC was a lot weaker ... not good. But kept my total day risk rule in control, lost exactly 57.99$ on 3 trades and my max daily loss is 60$ and my max amount of trade is 4 ...

I am all mixed up now ,did not even marked my discipline score ...

Have to get back for Friday.

Bye all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I have to admit that I will look into another trading methodology (again, yes, and I know, it might be the holy grail haunting me again but you know, only people that does not act cannot make mistakes).

I did join the CSTA group as mention in early post to help me and I have to admit that after one meeting, it actually did not helped me. Good group but no affinity with me as a day trader.

Same thing with the trading firm I do trade for. I did re-assist (for the 4th or 5th time) at the professional trader education last Sunday (full day) and it kind of mixed me up too.

I have been watching Mack's video (and futures.io (formerly BMT) PAT common Journal, of course which told me to watch Mack!) on PAT for a while (about 2 weeks now) and something important kind of light up inside of me:

1- I was playing with some indicator and I did find myself liking to draw trend lines on the said indicator (something I did strongly rejected in past because I find it too subjective for my exact mind ...)

2- The major forces of the markets are : Trend, range expansion and contraction and I like to add trading velocity.
So if the range size is constantly changing, the trend type (sometime tight channel, sometimes large channel) and the speed of the trading activity is also variable what kind of static indicator (like a SMA30 that I am using) can be useful for a such changing environment ? My answer to this question was none.

And this is what I did learn by watching Mack's stuff. The only tool strong enough (and flexible at the same time) to follow these variable concepts are trend lines.

When a trend changes its angle from A to B a static MA can be usefull in trend A and not usefull anymore in trend B.

Same thing for a tight range versus an expanding range.

And I can continue on and on for a MACD, a short term MA, etc.

Also, it seems that most of you guys here on futures.io (formerly BMT) are using PAT and I cannot ignore that either ...

So my next question will be to trade the ES or stick with INTC (Intel) ... The huge advantage of the ES is that I can watch Mack and all of you guys trading it at the end of the day to re-align myself or as a self correcting process. I am pretty sure I can trade ES for my firm so no issue on that side as well ...

After involving myself with price action I do plan to focus exclusively on psychology of trading.

That is the new plan, I do wish myself good luck with that new departure, many thanks for reading and supporting,

er

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 Malthus 
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erobertsonag View Post

Also, it seems that most of you guys here on futures.io (formerly BMT) are using PAT and I cannot ignore that either ...

I don't know if "most" of people in futures.io (formerly BMT) use it but definitely not the most profitable ones (tigertrader and big mike). I would recommend studying how they trade first.

I still use PAT's method for reading price action and I find it really useful (you'll see me posting regularly on PAT's thread) so I have nothing against it, just think you should see how they trade first.

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 erobertsonag 
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I don't know if "most" of people in futures.io (formerly BMT) use it but definitely not the most profitable ones (tigertrader and big mike). I would recommend studying how they trade first.

I still use PAT's method for reading price action and I find it really useful (you'll see me posting regularly on PAT's thread) so I have nothing against it, just think you should see how they trade first.

Thanks Malthus, do you have any specific thread in mind for seeing/studying how BM and tigertrader do trade ?

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 Malthus 
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Thanks Malthus, do you have any specific thread in mind for seeing/studying how BM and tigertrader do trade ?

@Big Mike 's thread. Read the last months or year.

Big Mike's day trading method and advice

tigertrader's thread. Again last months or year could do.

ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis

You'll have a hard time because there are a lot of posts, but I tell you now that it's worth it. After you are done studying that, if you still can't make something out of it, then maybe PAT's will help you start (and you could apply what you learned from them).

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 erobertsonag 
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Malthus View Post
@Big Mike 's thread. Read the last months or year.

Big Mike's day trading method and advice

tigertrader's thread. Again last months or year could do.

ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis

You'll have a hard time because there are a lot of posts, but I tell you now that it's worth it. After you are done studying that, if you still can't make something out of it, then maybe PAT's will help you start (and you could apply what you learned from them).

Tx for your response @Malthus. I did consult both thread and I really like BM's collection of toughs (for the one I did consult) while the @tigertrader's thread seem to be a complete different animal when comparing to the thread ''PATs - Price Action Trading - Elite Members Common Journal'' started by @trendwaves.

Also, I have to confess to you that I did bought Mack's book right after posting my new direction post which was before receiving your advices ... And now it kind of burn my hands not to read it !

I do like the simplicity of Mack's stuff and the simplicity of @trendwaves's thread when comparing with the ''ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis'' thread.

Do you think it is absolutely mandatory to go through @tigertrader's thread to be a successfull trader or following the ideas behind @trendwaves's thread and Mack's PAT can do the job ? I was under the impression that these guys were also good successfull traders. Also, I do not have a large appetite as for revenue, my long term goal will be to make around 300$ per trading session (or per day) and I will be more than happy with that.

I thought I was in good hand by following ''PATs - Price Action Trading - Elite Members Common Journal''.

What do you think? Many thanks again for your time,

er

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 Malthus 
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You can definitely be profitable with PATs and it's a good start. If you trade long enough you'll end up trading more like them probably, that's why I adviced to start with them.

Regarding the manual, it wasn't very useful for me. The daily videos explain in more detail how he trades and readS the price action. The only thing I would recommend (based on my experience with PATs, every person is different and it might not work for you) is to be a little flexible with your targets. Mack uses a 2 point stop and 1 point target (2:1 Risk/Reward), and that's crazy, specially if you are starting to trade. I only made a step forward in my trading when I started looking at least for 1:2 Risk/reward (the more the better).

Good luck!

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

First, I did actually liked the book and did read it twice. But the most important, well for me, is the Daily Trading Review (18 mb pdf) that is joined with the book. This is the same thing as Mack's video but on paper. It was his reviews before doing the videos. Daily reviews from December 2010 to August 2011 (302 pages document).

The difference with the videos is that all trade are circled while explanations are written on the next page. What I like to do is to identify the pattern (most of the time there is at least 2 patterns) at my own speed and review after with the answers. It did allowed me to take a tan this week-end while studying outside :-)

I did took a trade this PM on INTC. Here it is:





I know I was not really ready but wanted to give it a shot. I did manage to get out by myself in what I kind of analyzed to be a counter trend trade after the fact. But it was off a failed break out of support in a range (kind of trap) but I think the bullish engulfing bar had already burned the fuel created by the trap .... So I liked that I saw the failed breakout low but the signal bar analysis was poor. But most important, the big trending channel from yesterday has not been identified at entry time ... I kind of find it after my trade but It should have been found before ... Also, I was supposed to wait for at least a 2 legged-move down before going long and it had done only one leg down when I did enter which makes my trade a counter trend trade.

My plan is to prepare a one sheeter reminder as I had and I will work on this in the before putting another trade. I will start with a 10 minute analysis for the large trend identification on my sheet. Will share the said sheet when done.

Good night all,

er

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 Narcissus 
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erobertsonag View Post
I thought I was in good hand by following ''PATs - Price Action Trading - Elite Members Common Journal''.
What do you think?
er

I also liked PAT for it's simplicity after using several indicators last year. However I felt that volume got very little attention. I am not good at identifying patterns like channels while it's evolving. I often saw what I wanted to see to justify my entry. Ofcourse, it looks obvious after the market close or after I was stopped out!

I see that you started off with Market in Profile - Dalton. You had them in your charts as late as March 2015. Are you still using those principles?

I strongly believe that volume (and the intent) is the reason price changes (not otherway around - usually) and I also like Auction Market theory for it's simplicity. FT71 and L2ST are great teachers with lot's of free info. May I ask why you moved away from MP (if you were) and looking to add another methodology?

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 erobertsonag 
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I liked PAT for it's simplicity after using several indicators last year. However I felt that volume got very little attention. I am not good at identifying patterns like channels while it's evolving. I often saw what I wanted to see to justify my entry. Ofcourse, it looks obvious after the market close or after I was stopped out!

I think price is like the score card in a match. Yes it's important but I realised that the score changes b'cas of what's happening on the field with the players, whom I compare to volume. I strongly believe that volume is the reason price changes (not otherway around) and I strongly encourage you to add volume analysis into your method. I like Auction Market theory and it's simplicity but it doesn't provide you entry/exit signals.

Please bear in mind that I am a beginner (trading for less than year but mostly breakeven) usually trading live after a brief sim with new platform Ninja. Ofcourse you can decide after seeing my results in a month or so. Proof is in the pudding, right?

Volume was my main trigger signal in my previous strategy and with PAT and Mack there is no room for that according to their rules ... Many thanks for the hockey comparison, I really like it especially that Ottawa did the playoff and they will take Montreal in the first round ... :-) I do definitely keep your comment in mind. when I did my new trading plan tonight I had a strange feeling when I got rid of my volume signal at entry ... And it was my most important signal ... And now I have your comment which is 100% in alignment with my old strategy which was based on Damon Palvatos strategy too ...

I keep that in mind ... But on a trade based chart you see less info in volume unless you add a bar time duration indicator that you have to look with the volume .... The candles are better on trade based chart but the volume shows less information ... A kind of trade off ... My very old strategy was on a trade based chart with volume and a bar time duration indicator. Here is my same chart with both indicators:



Here is a 3min with volume:



Not that obvious as we can see, well on these charts ... But I know that there is an edge with volume and I totally agree with you ...

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Finally I decide to generate a new trading plan before my new cheat sheet ...

Here it is in pdf.

Enough for today for me,

er

Attached Thumbnails
My journal to trade by understanding market's processes and behaviors-trading-plan-short-version-2015-04-13.pdf  
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 erobertsonag 
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Narcissus View Post
I also liked PAT for it's simplicity after using several indicators last year. However I felt that volume got very little attention. I am not good at identifying patterns like channels while it's evolving. I often saw what I wanted to see to justify my entry. Ofcourse, it looks obvious after the market close or after I was stopped out!

I see that you started off with Market in Profile - Dalton. You had them in your charts as late as March 2015. Are you still using those principles?

I strongly believe that volume (and the intent) is the reason price changes (not otherway around - usually) and I also like Auction Market theory for it's simplicity. FT71 and L2ST are great teachers with lot's of free info. May I ask why you moved away from MP (if you were) and looking to add another methodology?

I do not look at MP at this moment but I keep in mind a lot of Dalton concepts like overnight H/L which Mack relates as well. I am still searching and maybe I am still doing the holy grail because I do fear my own emotion towards being rejected by a loosing trade, it is not clear for me now unfortunately ... But you need to do some kind of holy grail search to find what's best fits you ... I hope this 2nd affirmation is what I am going throught now ...

What I do really like with PAT is an easy way to compare myself (if I trade the ES) with the Thread PAT Common Journal and with Mack daily video. I tend to beat myself when I trade poorly so having peers trading the same chart at the same speed I can then compare my good and bad trades and forgive myself. But today I did trade INTC since I did not have ES in real time, not a really good idea, I should have replayed the ES for a previous day and go back and compare after ... But I am ok now, it did remind me to prepare a new trading plan and cheat sheet at least. My next trading session will be on a replay of the ES ...

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 erobertsonag 
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I strongly believe that volume (and the intent) is the reason price changes (not otherway around - usually) and I also like Auction Market theory for it's simplicity.

Hi Narcissus,

I wanted to add some clarification my thought around volume. According to Dalton the presence of volume should confirm a breakout while that absence of volume will confirm a return to the range ... So volume is something but the absence of volume at new high or low is also something important ... I did try in my early post in my thread to differentiate what a failed breakout volume size looked like and what a real volume breakout does look like. I think I was going somewhere with that study but it was difficult to differentiate both situation. Maybe somewhere inside his official training which I did not assist he does show how to differentiate a real breakout from a failed beakout based on the volume profile but in all of his free seminar he does not point out how to measure the volume at new high and lows. But he does specify that it need big volume at the breakout for the break to be valid (it has to attract new activity) while a return to the range will only attract day timeframe trader which should be a smaller volume size. Also and if my memory do not trick me here I believe that Adams H. Grime did try to quantify any statistical edge based on volume and he was not able to come with any quantifiable statistical edge around volume (this was in his last webinar here on futures.io (formerly BMT)). Anybody correct me if I am wrong here please. So I kind dumped the volume for the above mention reason for now.

Around PAT I would like to add this as well:

Pat provides me 3 things:

1- Context - Up Trend, Down Trend or range - this is done by drawing trend line and channel (2 tier channel sometimes) and horizontal supp and resistance lines

2- Execution - patterns specific for trending context and pattern specific for ranging context

3- Pattern simplicity - he does provide simple basic patterns (2nd entry, 2 legged-move to the EMA and/or trend line, breakout pull back, failed break out for range) and you got way enough trades just by following these simple patterns.

Dalton was providing only the context and the information around execution was kind of absent or not officially defined.

I also like the fact that instead of waiting for a specific setup to occurs like in my previous trading plan I do have to perform live analysis to find my context (drawing trend lines) which force me to stay alert and work during the trading session instead of waiting. I like it now in theory, maybe I will hate that when I will do it live, that might be another story ...

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 Narcissus 
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erobertsonag View Post
Hi Narcissus,

I wanted to add some clarification my thought around volume. According to Dalton the presence of volume should confirm a breakout while that absence of volume will confirm a return to the range ... So volume is something but the absence of volume at new high or low is also something important ... I did try in my early post in my thread to differentiate what a failed breakout volume size looked like and what a real volume breakout does look like. I think I was going somewhere with that study but it was difficult to differentiate both situation.


Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I also tried to predict a trend start from a balance area. Only recently I realised that it's a typical beginners mistake. I guess it comes from my mentality 'I HAVE NAILED IT' i.e long at the beginning of a trend or short at the exact end. I agree with you that interpreting volume at breakouts is very difficult (not to mention the risk as you go long or short at the worst possible place if it goes against you).

My rule of thumb is NEVER NEVER trade breakouts (after some costly lessons). My Logic being, most breakouts fail and even the successful ones pull back. Yes, the occasional shooter never looks back but I am ok with that now. It's something I learnt from FT71 and L2ST. Even Macks PAT method prefers pullbacks and fading ranges rather than catching the beginning of a trend. Since market is mostly in balance, about 80% of the time apparently, it makes sense to master fading a range first before spotting a trend. That's my current goal. To master fading first using Volume Profile value area principle guided by order flow/footprint.

You are right about Adam's quote that volume analysis didn't help his trading outcome. Not sure what to make of it. Dalton also didn't give any specific details about volume pick up in the beginning of a trend.

One of the other reason I moved away from PAT was that my style changed from scalping few ticks to longer term holding for 5 - 20 points gain i.e few hours to 2 days. There is some heated discussion going on about whether scalping is profitable or not. I think for a retail trader with all their limitations and psychological setbacks, Swinging makes lot more sense to me and VP MP seems to complement well with that approach.

I will keep you posted after results from my SPY trading. I don't trade ES now as I dont' want to care about profits or loss.

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 erobertsonag 
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Narcissus View Post
T

My rule of thumb is NEVER NEVER trade breakouts (after some costly lessons). My Logic being, most breakouts fail and even the successful ones pull back. Yes, the occasional shooter never looks back but I am ok with that now. It's something I learnt from FT71 and L2ST. Even Macks PAT method prefers pullbacks and fading ranges rather than catching the beginning of a trend. Since market is mostly in balance, about 80% of the time apparently, it makes sense to master fading a range first before spotting a trend. That's my current goal. To master fading first using Volume Profile value area principle guided by order flow/footprint.

I do actually start to apply the NEVER NEVER trade breakout, learn from Mack and then confirm by you, tx. I was not a breakout trader but I was not paying attention to that pull back rule after the breakout in order to join ... Mastering fading, I like that too ...


Narcissus View Post

One of the other reason I moved away from PAT was that my style changed from scalping few ticks to longer term holding for 5 - 20 points gain i.e few hours to 2 days. There is some heated discussion going on about whether scalping is profitable or not. I think for a retail trader with all their limitations and psychological setbacks, Swinging makes lot more sense to me and VP MP seems to complement well with that approach.

I will keep you posted after results from my SPY trading. I don't trade ES now as I dont' want to care about profits or loss.

Interesting the heated discussion around scalping would be profitable or not ... When you are swinging, are you watching the chart all the time ? I guess not ? If not this could be a plus as well ...

Many thanks for your support and comments

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Did a practice session Saturday. I did play March 27th on replay mode. Did start it at 10:45 AM, not really sure why I did that, I should have started at 12:30 but anyways, it was a good practice I think. First I have to admit it was a 4 trade that were not really successful. But lets watch all of them one by one:

Trade 1


First we were between the overnight H/L which gives us a range day. Second, I was seeing a convincing trend line break and I was expecting a retest or a new high. It went 2 or 3 ticks above the daily high to give a topping tail. I tried to enter right under it. My entry bar was bullish, the bar after also bullish which told me that I should get out, which I did. After the fact, I remember that these kind of reversal usually requires a double top ... I was not quick enough to recover from my emotion related to my trade and I did not re-enter on the actual real double top ... I think I should have re-enter there ...

Trade 2


Please refer to the the pink comment directly on the chart for my initial analysis. I got stopped out because I did adjust my stop 1 tick above my entry bar. Not a perfect analysis but I liked the support that became resistance ...
After looking back in Mack's book this range at the top is not a bad analysis at all !! Exact same range as the range example on page 34 !!

Trade 3


Entry bar not ok here.

Trade 4


Same situation as trade 2. Stopped out because I did adjust my stop at 1 tick above the entry bar.

I believe trade 2 and trade 4 should have been profitable scalp. The stop adjustment rule at 1 tick of the entry bar when the entry bar is completed come from the first part of Mack Book (page 52). When I do re-read it he specify to adjust the stop at UP to 2 ticks. This would have stopped me out anyways. At the end of the book in the Putting it All Together section and at page 61 he does not specify to adjust the stop at entry bar once it is completed. I do not know if he did forgot to mention it or he does actually not really follow that adjustment rule. Also, at page 52 he seems to be in a context of choppy market according to the beginning of the paragraph. I really feel that I should not apply the stop adjustment rule in order to leave some room for the trade to work, what do you guys think of that ?

Many thanks,

er

P.S. I did not watch Mack video for March 27th yet. Will check that and comment after

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I did watch Mack's chart lesson for March 27th 2015 and I am very happy of what I did saw. Trade 1 has not been identified as a trade (not even a green one). But trade 2, 3 and 4 were all valid trade according to Mack. Here is the video link:



I decided to remove my stop adjustment rule to the entry bar, Mack never talks about such adjustment in his videos and he does not specify such adjustment in his recap section of his book and most importantly, it makes more sense to me to leave the stop at 1 ticks of most recent pivot.

I did change my trading schedule for the next one:

Friday PM, Saturday AM and Sunday AM. I will replay the ES starting at 12:30. So, next Friday PM I will be trading March 30th 2015 in replay mode, next Saturday AM I will be trading March 31st 2015 and so on.

I will keep the same structure in my journal on futures.io (formerly BMT) as this one which is:

1- a personal review of my trades with charts and comment.

2- a second review of my trades with the video of Mack

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Got into only one trade. Went very well. Here it is:



With a zoom on it:



I think I missed at least 2 other entries, I will see when watching Mack's recording for March 29th.

My plan was to hold my stop whatever happens. But I kept that rule even when target 1 was reached and my stop was raised at break even. I think I should have execute my PAV reversal bar get out rule for the runner ... My not so runner would have gave me a +6 tick instead of a 0 tick ... I will think about that. And my target 2 has been reached but not executed ... :-(

Good Friday night all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

I did missed a channel and some entries (as I knew, especially the bullish engulfing right on the big trend line). I will add some colors on my trend lines and will make my candlesticks with full body colors with black outline. I think it will help to see the channels. Here is my revised/corrected chart after looking at Mack's video:



That it for today, I will replay March 31st tomorrow,


Good Saturday all,

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi all,

Got into only one trade , Iwas on the good side, at the good moment but in the wrong pattern and then to shy to get back in the ring right after being punched ... Here it is:



It is my third practice in a row and I still feel great. I have plenty of opportunities but I have to work on getting into those trades !! This is the first time that I do perform 3 trading sessions in a row without being totally out of me or frustrated or willing to change my method since the beginning of this journal. Having the chance to review the exact same instrument with the exact same method for the exact same day bring some much peace inside of me ... it is priceless... well for me. When you trade on your own even with a positive trading day you can still doubt that you might have been lucky ... And when you trade bad you beat yourself and it is hard to recover ... But when you are done it is still interesting to wait and watch Mack's video to compare your own good or bad trades.

Ok, back to my only one trade. I knew the retest of the morning channel was done. And the break of the morning channel was so big I was even scared of going long so I decided to wait for the short side. I got a move down and then I was seeing a range. I broke down and I thought it was a breakout pullback short. Got stopped out 8 ticks higher. Then I was under the shock and when the 2nd entry short came in I had gazillon reasons to not get in short again:

1- Back in the range
2- Bullish bar on the second entry signal bar
3- Bullish bar on the second entry signal bar
4- The bearish bar was a 12 tick bar stop

That's about it, lets watch Mack's video and see from there ...

er

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 erobertsonag 
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Hi again,

Did saw the big channels a little bit different than Mack, here is the picture:



Mack did not talked about any range around my entry (breakout pullback short cannot exist without range ... :-)). But he saw a 2nd entry short with a trap before my entry and another second entry short after my entry ... I do see it now and I agree with both entries.

Here are my final comments on my trade:



Is my assumption around my 8 ticks risk vs the 13 ticks pivot comment on my chart any good ?

Tx

Good Sunday night all,

er

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