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My journal to trade by understanding market's processes and behaviors
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My journal to trade by understanding market's processes and behaviors

  #91 (permalink)
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Narcissus View Post
I also liked PAT for it's simplicity after using several indicators last year. However I felt that volume got very little attention. I am not good at identifying patterns like channels while it's evolving. I often saw what I wanted to see to justify my entry. Ofcourse, it looks obvious after the market close or after I was stopped out!

I see that you started off with Market in Profile - Dalton. You had them in your charts as late as March 2015. Are you still using those principles?

I strongly believe that volume (and the intent) is the reason price changes (not otherway around - usually) and I also like Auction Market theory for it's simplicity. FT71 and L2ST are great teachers with lot's of free info. May I ask why you moved away from MP (if you were) and looking to add another methodology?

I do not look at MP at this moment but I keep in mind a lot of Dalton concepts like overnight H/L which Mack relates as well. I am still searching and maybe I am still doing the holy grail because I do fear my own emotion towards being rejected by a loosing trade, it is not clear for me now unfortunately ... But you need to do some kind of holy grail search to find what's best fits you ... I hope this 2nd affirmation is what I am going throught now ...

What I do really like with PAT is an easy way to compare myself (if I trade the ES) with the Thread PAT Common Journal and with Mack daily video. I tend to beat myself when I trade poorly so having peers trading the same chart at the same speed I can then compare my good and bad trades and forgive myself. But today I did trade INTC since I did not have ES in real time, not a really good idea, I should have replayed the ES for a previous day and go back and compare after ... But I am ok now, it did remind me to prepare a new trading plan and cheat sheet at least. My next trading session will be on a replay of the ES ...

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  #92 (permalink)
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Volume and PAT


Narcissus View Post
I strongly believe that volume (and the intent) is the reason price changes (not otherway around - usually) and I also like Auction Market theory for it's simplicity.

Hi Narcissus,

I wanted to add some clarification my thought around volume. According to Dalton the presence of volume should confirm a breakout while that absence of volume will confirm a return to the range ... So volume is something but the absence of volume at new high or low is also something important ... I did try in my early post in my thread to differentiate what a failed breakout volume size looked like and what a real volume breakout does look like. I think I was going somewhere with that study but it was difficult to differentiate both situation. Maybe somewhere inside his official training which I did not assist he does show how to differentiate a real breakout from a failed beakout based on the volume profile but in all of his free seminar he does not point out how to measure the volume at new high and lows. But he does specify that it need big volume at the breakout for the break to be valid (it has to attract new activity) while a return to the range will only attract day timeframe trader which should be a smaller volume size. Also and if my memory do not trick me here I believe that Adams H. Grime did try to quantify any statistical edge based on volume and he was not able to come with any quantifiable statistical edge around volume (this was in his last webinar here on futures.io (formerly BMT)). Anybody correct me if I am wrong here please. So I kind dumped the volume for the above mention reason for now.

Around PAT I would like to add this as well:

Pat provides me 3 things:

1- Context - Up Trend, Down Trend or range - this is done by drawing trend line and channel (2 tier channel sometimes) and horizontal supp and resistance lines

2- Execution - patterns specific for trending context and pattern specific for ranging context

3- Pattern simplicity - he does provide simple basic patterns (2nd entry, 2 legged-move to the EMA and/or trend line, breakout pull back, failed break out for range) and you got way enough trades just by following these simple patterns.

Dalton was providing only the context and the information around execution was kind of absent or not officially defined.

I also like the fact that instead of waiting for a specific setup to occurs like in my previous trading plan I do have to perform live analysis to find my context (drawing trend lines) which force me to stay alert and work during the trading session instead of waiting. I like it now in theory, maybe I will hate that when I will do it live, that might be another story ...

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  #93 (permalink)
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erobertsonag View Post
Hi Narcissus,

I wanted to add some clarification my thought around volume. According to Dalton the presence of volume should confirm a breakout while that absence of volume will confirm a return to the range ... So volume is something but the absence of volume at new high or low is also something important ... I did try in my early post in my thread to differentiate what a failed breakout volume size looked like and what a real volume breakout does look like. I think I was going somewhere with that study but it was difficult to differentiate both situation.


Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I also tried to predict a trend start from a balance area. Only recently I realised that it's a typical beginners mistake. I guess it comes from my mentality 'I HAVE NAILED IT' i.e long at the beginning of a trend or short at the exact end. I agree with you that interpreting volume at breakouts is very difficult (not to mention the risk as you go long or short at the worst possible place if it goes against you).

My rule of thumb is NEVER NEVER trade breakouts (after some costly lessons). My Logic being, most breakouts fail and even the successful ones pull back. Yes, the occasional shooter never looks back but I am ok with that now. It's something I learnt from FT71 and L2ST. Even Macks PAT method prefers pullbacks and fading ranges rather than catching the beginning of a trend. Since market is mostly in balance, about 80% of the time apparently, it makes sense to master fading a range first before spotting a trend. That's my current goal. To master fading first using Volume Profile value area principle guided by order flow/footprint.

You are right about Adam's quote that volume analysis didn't help his trading outcome. Not sure what to make of it. Dalton also didn't give any specific details about volume pick up in the beginning of a trend.

One of the other reason I moved away from PAT was that my style changed from scalping few ticks to longer term holding for 5 - 20 points gain i.e few hours to 2 days. There is some heated discussion going on about whether scalping is profitable or not. I think for a retail trader with all their limitations and psychological setbacks, Swinging makes lot more sense to me and VP MP seems to complement well with that approach.

I will keep you posted after results from my SPY trading. I don't trade ES now as I dont' want to care about profits or loss.

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  #94 (permalink)
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Narcissus View Post
T

My rule of thumb is NEVER NEVER trade breakouts (after some costly lessons). My Logic being, most breakouts fail and even the successful ones pull back. Yes, the occasional shooter never looks back but I am ok with that now. It's something I learnt from FT71 and L2ST. Even Macks PAT method prefers pullbacks and fading ranges rather than catching the beginning of a trend. Since market is mostly in balance, about 80% of the time apparently, it makes sense to master fading a range first before spotting a trend. That's my current goal. To master fading first using Volume Profile value area principle guided by order flow/footprint.

I do actually start to apply the NEVER NEVER trade breakout, learn from Mack and then confirm by you, tx. I was not a breakout trader but I was not paying attention to that pull back rule after the breakout in order to join ... Mastering fading, I like that too ...


Narcissus View Post

One of the other reason I moved away from PAT was that my style changed from scalping few ticks to longer term holding for 5 - 20 points gain i.e few hours to 2 days. There is some heated discussion going on about whether scalping is profitable or not. I think for a retail trader with all their limitations and psychological setbacks, Swinging makes lot more sense to me and VP MP seems to complement well with that approach.

I will keep you posted after results from my SPY trading. I don't trade ES now as I dont' want to care about profits or loss.

Interesting the heated discussion around scalping would be profitable or not ... When you are swinging, are you watching the chart all the time ? I guess not ? If not this could be a plus as well ...

Many thanks for your support and comments

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  #95 (permalink)
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Practice session March 27th 2015 in replay mode

Hi all,

Did a practice session Saturday. I did play March 27th on replay mode. Did start it at 10:45 AM, not really sure why I did that, I should have started at 12:30 but anyways, it was a good practice I think. First I have to admit it was a 4 trade that were not really successful. But lets watch all of them one by one:

Trade 1
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First we were between the overnight H/L which gives us a range day. Second, I was seeing a convincing trend line break and I was expecting a retest or a new high. It went 2 or 3 ticks above the daily high to give a topping tail. I tried to enter right under it. My entry bar was bullish, the bar after also bullish which told me that I should get out, which I did. After the fact, I remember that these kind of reversal usually requires a double top ... I was not quick enough to recover from my emotion related to my trade and I did not re-enter on the actual real double top ... I think I should have re-enter there ...

Trade 2
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Please refer to the the pink comment directly on the chart for my initial analysis. I got stopped out because I did adjust my stop 1 tick above my entry bar. Not a perfect analysis but I liked the support that became resistance ...
After looking back in Mack's book this range at the top is not a bad analysis at all !! Exact same range as the range example on page 34 !!

Trade 3
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Entry bar not ok here.

Trade 4
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Same situation as trade 2. Stopped out because I did adjust my stop at 1 tick above the entry bar.

I believe trade 2 and trade 4 should have been profitable scalp. The stop adjustment rule at 1 tick of the entry bar when the entry bar is completed come from the first part of Mack Book (page 52). When I do re-read it he specify to adjust the stop at UP to 2 ticks. This would have stopped me out anyways. At the end of the book in the Putting it All Together section and at page 61 he does not specify to adjust the stop at entry bar once it is completed. I do not know if he did forgot to mention it or he does actually not really follow that adjustment rule. Also, at page 52 he seems to be in a context of choppy market according to the beginning of the paragraph. I really feel that I should not apply the stop adjustment rule in order to leave some room for the trade to work, what do you guys think of that ?

Many thanks,

er

P.S. I did not watch Mack video for March 27th yet. Will check that and comment after


Last edited by erobertsonag; April 19th, 2015 at 02:40 PM.
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  #96 (permalink)
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Review of Mack video March 27th 2015

Hi all,

I did watch Mack's chart lesson for March 27th 2015 and I am very happy of what I did saw. Trade 1 has not been identified as a trade (not even a green one). But trade 2, 3 and 4 were all valid trade according to Mack. Here is the video link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RR5BHXoZ2sg

I decided to remove my stop adjustment rule to the entry bar, Mack never talks about such adjustment in his videos and he does not specify such adjustment in his recap section of his book and most importantly, it makes more sense to me to leave the stop at 1 ticks of most recent pivot.

I did change my trading schedule for the next one:

Friday PM, Saturday AM and Sunday AM. I will replay the ES starting at 12:30. So, next Friday PM I will be trading March 30th 2015 in replay mode, next Saturday AM I will be trading March 31st 2015 and so on.

I will keep the same structure in my journal on futures.io (formerly BMT) as this one which is:

1- a personal review of my trades with charts and comment.

2- a second review of my trades with the video of Mack

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  #97 (permalink)
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Practice session March 30th 2015 in replay mode

Hi all,

Got into only one trade. Went very well. Here it is:

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With a zoom on it:

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I think I missed at least 2 other entries, I will see when watching Mack's recording for March 29th.

My plan was to hold my stop whatever happens. But I kept that rule even when target 1 was reached and my stop was raised at break even. I think I should have execute my PAV reversal bar get out rule for the runner ... My not so runner would have gave me a +6 tick instead of a 0 tick ... I will think about that. And my target 2 has been reached but not executed ... :-(

Good Friday night all,

er


Last edited by erobertsonag; April 25th, 2015 at 09:34 AM.
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  #98 (permalink)
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Review of Mack video March 30th 2015

Hi all,

I did missed a channel and some entries (as I knew, especially the bullish engulfing right on the big trend line). I will add some colors on my trend lines and will make my candlesticks with full body colors with black outline. I think it will help to see the channels. Here is my revised/corrected chart after looking at Mack's video:

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That it for today, I will replay March 31st tomorrow,


Good Saturday all,

er

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  #99 (permalink)
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Practice session March 31th 2015 in replay mode

Hi all,

Got into only one trade , Iwas on the good side, at the good moment but in the wrong pattern and then to shy to get back in the ring right after being punched ... Here it is:

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It is my third practice in a row and I still feel great. I have plenty of opportunities but I have to work on getting into those trades !! This is the first time that I do perform 3 trading sessions in a row without being totally out of me or frustrated or willing to change my method since the beginning of this journal. Having the chance to review the exact same instrument with the exact same method for the exact same day bring some much peace inside of me ... it is priceless... well for me. When you trade on your own even with a positive trading day you can still doubt that you might have been lucky ... And when you trade bad you beat yourself and it is hard to recover ... But when you are done it is still interesting to wait and watch Mack's video to compare your own good or bad trades.

Ok, back to my only one trade. I knew the retest of the morning channel was done. And the break of the morning channel was so big I was even scared of going long so I decided to wait for the short side. I got a move down and then I was seeing a range. I broke down and I thought it was a breakout pullback short. Got stopped out 8 ticks higher. Then I was under the shock and when the 2nd entry short came in I had gazillon reasons to not get in short again:

1- Back in the range
2- Bullish bar on the second entry signal bar
3- Bullish bar on the second entry signal bar
4- The bearish bar was a 12 tick bar stop

That's about it, lets watch Mack's video and see from there ...

er

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  #100 (permalink)
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Review of Mack video March 31th 2015


Hi again,

Did saw the big channels a little bit different than Mack, here is the picture:

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Mack did not talked about any range around my entry (breakout pullback short cannot exist without range ... :-)). But he saw a 2nd entry short with a trap before my entry and another second entry short after my entry ... I do see it now and I agree with both entries.

Here are my final comments on my trade:

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Is my assumption around my 8 ticks risk vs the 13 ticks pivot comment on my chart any good ?

Tx

Good Sunday night all,

er


Last edited by erobertsonag; April 26th, 2015 at 07:16 PM.
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