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Trend Follower
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Trend Follower

  #1 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Warsaw Poland
 
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Platform: MetaStock
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Posts: 13 since Jul 2014
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Trend Follower

Hello everyone!

I will be posting here some trades which will be based on assumption that market trends are more likely to continue then to reverse. Just think about it - if you will earn on something - it's more likely that you will invest more - that's how all bubbles and ponzi schemes exists.



Feel free to comment, ask questions or flame

I'm going to place few trades to start - every position at 10% of portfolio (I know it's too much), trailing stop loss at 10%.

1. Instrument: GPRE - Position: Long - Price: 44.37 - Date: 2014-Aug-25

2. Instrument: CHEV - Position: Long - Price: 12.66 - Date: 2014-Aug-25

3. Instrument: CP - Position: Long - Price: 200.13 - Date: 2014-Aug-25

View of current portfolio:
Stock Screener

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  #3 (permalink)
Hyde Park,
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Nice to see someone trading stocks. I like CP's chart the most out of the lot. Good luck and maybe you can go into more detail on what makes you want to enter a position on a certain stock

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  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
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The trend is your friend till it ends.:-)

How are you planning to exit your trades.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #5 (permalink)
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I think that you have to become profitable first in long term on stock, when you don't pay swaps, broker fees, data fees etc. Then, when you see your edge over the market, you can try earn more in short term.

And yes, every trend ends someday, but:

Quoting 
"Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend." George Soros

To enter position I just look at various stock charts - ex. new highs. I look for low deviation from linear regression, then I briefly look at fundamentals and news - if I don't see something really bad in fundamentals - I open position.

I'm planing to exit every position on trailing stop loss at 10%of high water mark, or if see on the chart signs of trend reversal and news supporting it.


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I like CP and GPRE.......I think CHEV is poised for a bearish downturn.

I like that screener you showed us...too bad it does not do Canadian stocks {sigh}

for another railway stock....consider Canadian National Railways....cheaper and just as bullish

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  #7 (permalink)
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AgileQuant View Post

To enter position I just look at various stock charts - ex. new highs. I look for low deviation from linear regression, then I briefly look at fundamentals and news - if I don't see something really bad in fundamentals - I open position.

I'm planing to exit every position on trailing stop loss at 10%of high water mark, or if see on the chart signs of trend reversal and news supporting it.


What is the objective of your portfolio?

It looks like you are planning to eventually buy 10 different up trending stocks and hold until the trend reverses. Do you have a benchmark to compare your portfolio against?

10% trailing stop is a lot to give back. What criteria do you use to determine that the trend has ended?

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #8 (permalink)
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@Underexposed
I see that CHEV is really low volume stock, probably I'll close this position. CNI looks interesting.

@deaddog
I just want to get good ROI based on idea that there is more probability that trend will continue than that it will reverse. Good bench mark would be S&P500. I will close position just from look and feel, looking at the charts - it's not deterministic.


To day I will open:
Instrument: CNI - Position: Long - Price: 71.86 - Date: 2014-Sep-01
Instrument: AKS- Position: Long - Price: 10.92 - Date: 2014-Sep-01
Instrument: SIMO - Position: Long - Price: 26.96 - Date: 2014-Sep-01

To sum up my portfolio:

http://www.trendsinvesting.com/stock-screener#!c:symbol_info/smb:GPRE,CHEV,CP,CNI,AKS,SIMO/p:1/ps:20

No. Instrument Position Buy Price Buy Date Current Price ROI
1 GPRE Long 44.37 2014-08-25 44.69 0.32%
2 CHEV Long 12.66 2014-08-25 12.60 -0.06%
3 CP Long 200.13 2014-08-25 200.60 0.47%
4 CNI Long 71.86 2014-09-01 71.86 0.00%
5 AKS Long 10.92 2014-09-01 10.92 0.00%
6 SIMO Long 26.96 2014-09-01 26.96 0.00%
Average ROI: 0.22%

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  #9 (permalink)
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Yes...I think that is wise...CHEV looks a bit more bearish since my look at it ... I try to avoid such low volume stocks also.

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  #10 (permalink)
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Posts: 13 since Jul 2014
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Will probably sell CHEV in any sign of downturn. Also AKS isn't performing very well now.

Today I'm opening to new positions
Instrument: ATVI - Position: Long - Price: 23.70 - Date: 2014-Sep-05
Instrument: AI - Position: Long - Price: 27.38 - Date: 2014-Sep-05

Summary of my portfolio:
Stock Screener

ROI on every instrument in attachment:
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