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Trend Follower


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Trend Follower

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  #1 (permalink)
Warsaw Poland
 
 
Posts: 13 since Jul 2014

Hello everyone!

I will be posting here some trades which will be based on assumption that market trends are more likely to continue then to reverse. Just think about it - if you will earn on something - it's more likely that you will invest more - that's how all bubbles and ponzi schemes exists.



Feel free to comment, ask questions or flame

I'm going to place few trades to start - every position at 10% of portfolio (I know it's too much), trailing stop loss at 10%.

1. Instrument: GPRE - Position: Long - Price: 44.37 - Date: 2014-Aug-25

2. Instrument: CHEV - Position: Long - Price: 12.66 - Date: 2014-Aug-25

3. Instrument: CP - Position: Long - Price: 200.13 - Date: 2014-Aug-25

View of current portfolio:
Stock Screener

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  #3 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradingview
Broker: ThinkOrSwim
Trading: Forex, Stock & Options
 
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Posts: 545 since May 2011
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Nice to see someone trading stocks. I like CP's chart the most out of the lot. Good luck and maybe you can go into more detail on what makes you want to enter a position on a certain stock

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  #4 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
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Posts: 829 since May 2013
Thanks: 125 given, 2,126 received

The trend is your friend till it ends.:-)

How are you planning to exit your trades.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #5 (permalink)
Warsaw Poland
 
 
Posts: 13 since Jul 2014

I think that you have to become profitable first in long term on stock, when you don't pay swaps, broker fees, data fees etc. Then, when you see your edge over the market, you can try earn more in short term.

And yes, every trend ends someday, but:

Quoting 
"Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend." George Soros

To enter position I just look at various stock charts - ex. new highs. I look for low deviation from linear regression, then I briefly look at fundamentals and news - if I don't see something really bad in fundamentals - I open position.

I'm planing to exit every position on trailing stop loss at 10%of high water mark, or if see on the chart signs of trend reversal and news supporting it.


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  #6 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I like CP and GPRE.......I think CHEV is poised for a bearish downturn.

I like that screener you showed us...too bad it does not do Canadian stocks {sigh}

for another railway stock....consider Canadian National Railways....cheaper and just as bullish


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  #7 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
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Posts: 829 since May 2013
Thanks: 125 given, 2,126 received


AgileQuant View Post

To enter position I just look at various stock charts - ex. new highs. I look for low deviation from linear regression, then I briefly look at fundamentals and news - if I don't see something really bad in fundamentals - I open position.

I'm planing to exit every position on trailing stop loss at 10%of high water mark, or if see on the chart signs of trend reversal and news supporting it.


What is the objective of your portfolio?

It looks like you are planning to eventually buy 10 different up trending stocks and hold until the trend reverses. Do you have a benchmark to compare your portfolio against?

10% trailing stop is a lot to give back. What criteria do you use to determine that the trend has ended?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #8 (permalink)
Warsaw Poland
 
 
Posts: 13 since Jul 2014

@Underexposed
I see that CHEV is really low volume stock, probably I'll close this position. CNI looks interesting.

@deaddog
I just want to get good ROI based on idea that there is more probability that trend will continue than that it will reverse. Good bench mark would be S&P500. I will close position just from look and feel, looking at the charts - it's not deterministic.


To day I will open:
Instrument: CNI - Position: Long - Price: 71.86 - Date: 2014-Sep-01
Instrument: AKS- Position: Long - Price: 10.92 - Date: 2014-Sep-01
Instrument: SIMO - Position: Long - Price: 26.96 - Date: 2014-Sep-01

To sum up my portfolio:

https://www.trendsinvesting.com/stock-screener#!c:symbol_info/smb:GPRE,CHEV,CP,CNI,AKS,SIMO/p:1/ps:20

No. Instrument Position Buy Price Buy Date Current Price ROI
1 GPRE Long 44.37 2014-08-25 44.69 0.32%
2 CHEV Long 12.66 2014-08-25 12.60 -0.06%
3 CP Long 200.13 2014-08-25 200.60 0.47%
4 CNI Long 71.86 2014-09-01 71.86 0.00%
5 AKS Long 10.92 2014-09-01 10.92 0.00%
6 SIMO Long 26.96 2014-09-01 26.96 0.00%
Average ROI: 0.22%

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  #9 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Yes...I think that is wise...CHEV looks a bit more bearish since my look at it ... I try to avoid such low volume stocks also.

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  #10 (permalink)
Warsaw Poland
 
 
Posts: 13 since Jul 2014


Will probably sell CHEV in any sign of downturn. Also AKS isn't performing very well now.

Today I'm opening to new positions
Instrument: ATVI - Position: Long - Price: 23.70 - Date: 2014-Sep-05
Instrument: AI - Position: Long - Price: 27.38 - Date: 2014-Sep-05

Summary of my portfolio:
Stock Screener

ROI on every instrument in attachment:

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