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Zumthor's Trade Journal


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Zumthor's Trade Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
zumthor
South Africa
 
 
Posts: 4 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

...

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  #3 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
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Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
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I try not to give trading career advice because i never listened when i got one and no one has taken my advice when

i gave one.


However, your introductory note has compelled me to give advice any way.


1) You are still relatively young and have a fair chance of getting into a reputable trading firm. This is the best

way to learn and make a career out of trading.


2) Internet ( including forums like Big Mike etc) have a ton of resources as far as trading goes. Problem is there is so much information which has

very little to do with being a successful trader. Lack of structured training is one of the key reasons traders
keep spinning wheels years after years.


3) regarding TST combine- all i will say that hedge fund manager Daniel S. Loeb ( and a host of very successful

managers) are up nicely YTD around 6.5%. Based on 6.5% ytd performance Daniel will not qualify for TST combine. However, he is a billonaire. TST program has many good attributes but i will not worry too much if you do not

qualify for one. The program simply is not realistic in terms of what is expected. TST master trader gets funded for $150,000. This is not shabby. The problem is for a trader to make a decent living one has to get 50% or higher

on retail comission along with pipe dream of NO RISK and 50%+ returns. Of course TST is not asking you to get 50% return but if one can not even make 70K /year after paying everything else- what's the point.


The biggest trade of your life you will make is to decide about a pathway to a trading career. After this trade every other trade will pale in comparison.

Best way to approach something like TST combine is to do in conjuction with having a job. In my experience trading full time with TST combine with no other source of income is not a trade an experienced trader will take.




Good Luck.

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  #4 (permalink)
zumthor
South Africa
 
 
Posts: 4 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

Thanks for the feedback mfbreakout.

I agree the TST requirements are unrealistic, comparing indices of CTA performance to the profit targets they set highlights this. Maybe my post made it seem that the combine was an all or nothing proposition, rather it's just an intermediate goal I have set to get me to focus and ramp up my efforts. If I don't make it I have a plan b. As far as getting a job, I live in South Africa, our country is being run into the ground by inept thieves and due to government policy white males who are well educated and looking to get a job in finance have no chance, but that's another story!

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  #5 (permalink)
zumthor
South Africa
 
 
Posts: 4 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

So I am starting a TST combine tomorrow. I have been trading on the ninjatrader simulator solidly for over a month now and have traded 6 months worth of data. Over that time my performance has been steadily improving but it's only in the last two weeks that my responses to market conditions and trade execution has become more automatic and consistent. As per my previous post I ran some tests to test the basic parameters for my only indicator (Bollinger bands) and determine stops and take profits, and when to trail stops any by how much.

I'm trying out on the "150k" account and am reasonably confident of earning a rollover. In prior trials my approach was to try and cherry pick what seemed like the best trades from two or three instruments but what ended up happening was that I would struggle to have a positive average on all three purely because I wasn't trading frequently enough and the chances of having a couple of losses in a row on one instrument were high. In short, it just got out of hand. This time I am trading ES exclusively so I don't have this problem and I can stick with something that doesn't seem to be in a prolonged period of low volatility like the euro.

I have flip flopped a hundred times over which is the best approach to meet this lofty profit target, frequent trades with small wins or trying to pick your spots and go for less frequent but bigger wins. With each round turn costing 5 dollars I suspect it's the latter approach and in all honesty it's the approach that I am more comfortable with anyway. If the simulation I have been doing is anything to go by I will probably only make 5-12 trades a week.

My view on it is that you need one BIG win to help get you to that target. I will probably start trading with a thousand dollars risk per trade, so one 5-6 R trade in the first few days of the trial will give me a great chance, provided I don't burn through a lot of trades trying to find this big winner. Should the winning day percentage become an issue I will lighten up on the contracts widen my stops marginally and bring in my take profit a bit, but only if I need to.

In terms of preparedness I'm probably about 90 percent of where I want to be, I would have liked maybe another month or two of simulated trading under my belt and do a little more testing and analysis of my trading. But I think trading under the conditions of the combine will bring the level of focus needed.

Updates to follow.

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  #6 (permalink)
 silver99 
Market Wizard
Mineola, TX
 
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Dorman
Trading: CL & ES
 
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Posts: 1,532 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 3,649 given, 4,186 received

Zumthor,

I have been trading since early 2001, with very limited success and a lot of failures. I was fortunate enough to find mfbreakout's Elite Journal thread a few months before he closed it down. Invest in becoming an Elite member and take advantage of all the great resources in that area.

By watching and communicating with Mfbreakout and DCTrade69 about their trades, I have made the transition from a losing trader, to a scratcher, to a consistently profitable trader. Go read my posts in the closed thread and you will be thoroughly convinced I didn't know what I was doing in the realm of trading just 6 months ago.

Using the ACD and Market profile methodology adapted to my personal style has been the difference in my trading and my confidence.

My advice to you is to read Mark Fisher's books and Jim Dalton's book and then go through the old thread of mfbreakout in the Elite section. You can learn what successful traders are seeing and thinking if you put the effort into it, I did.

My cost for the education and resulting consistently profitable weeks was the cost of an Elite membership and 3 books on EBay.

I do not visit futures.io (formerly BMT) much anymore, but it is a very valuable asset and Big Mike is to be commended for keeping it going.

Best of everything to you, go make your own luck.

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  #7 (permalink)
zumthor
South Africa
 
 
Posts: 4 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

Thanks for the input silver99.

I'll check out those resources, I've had an introduction to market profile and do use volume profile, the mark fisher book and method is new to me.

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