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Newbie seeks new Porsche via day trading. See what happens.


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Newbie seeks new Porsche via day trading. See what happens.

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  #1 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

I've decided to journal my adventure.

I'm new to trading. Not RAW brand new, never ever held a stock in my life new, but new enough.


My adventure will be to start with a VERY limited fund and day trade my way up with it.

I'm starting with a mere 1700 dollars in real money.

I use market games to practice strategies and (hopefully) learn to avoid all the worst mistakes before putting real money into the market.

I trade via Vanguard (for now) and use TC2000 for stock screening and charting.


I schedule just one trading session per week as I have only one free day during the work week, and for now that's
Friday even though I know that Friday is not the optimal day to trade. Until I can change around my off day, that's
just something I have to live with.


I've traded on two days so far, and split my 1700 dollars to do those two trades on two separate days. Those were
last week and were my first experiments.


In summary, here's what happened.


First trade: 7/10/14

Bought 213 shares of NVAX at $4.41/share
Sold 213 shares of NVAX at $4.6043/share
After paying fees and commissions, my profit was $27.16, 2.89 percent.


Second trade: 7/11/14

Bought 94 ACHN @ 7.80
Sold 94 ACHN @ 7.68 (not going to hold overnight!)
Net loss $-25.30 including fees and commissions


The funds settled on Tuesday and Wednesday and I trade again on Friday.

I will be trading a single stock with 1700 dollars (roughly) and not trying to split up and buy two stocks this time,
or ever again for a long time to come.

I have to make 0.82 percent to cover the 14 dollars commissions (7 in, 7 out) and anything above that is profit.
I'm hoping to clear 2 percent after paying the commissions and fees.

Friday will be my next trade day. (Tomorrow.)

I'm as curious to see what I can do with 1700 dollars as anybody.



Since I'm new at this, my "strategy", so to speak, is likely to be subject to refinement. A lot of it, over time, I suspect,
but hopefully I won't have any major setbacks by being very careful about my buying choices.

I'm looking for quick movers in stocks that normally trade in fairly highly daily volume (a million shares or better per day)
and are moving for an identifiable reason that I can quickly find, such as news of a split, earnings report, upgrade, downgrade,
or other form of news.

The real challenge is to get into a big mover while it's still got lots of room left to move. Obviously. And that part will
no doubt cause me to question my decision many times on many days.

The riskiest part of my plan is simply that I'll be playing "all in" with this limited amount of money and what it grows into,
for a fair amount of time. My profits (if there are any) will be rolled back into the market at the earliest opportunity until
such time as the fund has grown to the point where it can generate some income for me while leaving the fund large enough
to still make meaningful profits. (If that happens.)

I don't dare to hope that I can do something like consistently boost my trade fund by 2 percent or better every time I trade.
While that would be wonderful, I can't count on that.

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  #3 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received


Day's trade done.

It was quite successful. I met my goals, and then some.

I bought 369 shares of NQ at 4.61 and sold them at 4.81 for a gain of 20 cents/share.

Gain before paying commisions: $73.80
Commissions: 14 dollars (7 in, 7 out)
Net profit: $59.80

Percentage profit: 4.3 percent before accounting for commissions, 3.5 percent accounting for commissions.

The stock peaked at 5.01 within 10 minutes of the time I sold out. Which would have doubled my profits if I'd hung
on but the truth is that I'm not greedy and will always be happy to walk away from any trade with a 3.5 percent net
profit. In fact, I'd be happy with less than that. I need 0.82 percent gross profit to cover my commissions and
as long as I beat that, I can't say I'm unhappy.


I'll take 4 percent for sure, now, rather than speculate on 5 percent or 3 percent a minute from now.

Sure, it's small change, but with good trading choices on a consistent basis, it will (hopefully) become larger.
Some day it might bring me a good income AND keep growing. That's a goal.

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  #4 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
Philadelphia
 
Experience: None
Platform: corded black telephone
Trading: ticker tape
 
Posts: 2,893 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 1,683 given, 3,667 received

is the title of this thread a joke by mike or did you choose it

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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  #5 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

I chose it. Though it's not REALLY my goal to do it, I'm setting a tongue-in-cheek goal of making enough money to buy a new Porsche 911 within four years. Not that I really expect to cash out and buy a car UNLESS the cost of the car is a minor component of the money I've made.

It's good to have goals. You actually won't make any progress toward a goal if you don't set those goals first,
and that is the honest truth about how life works.

You get nothing worthwhile unless you plan and work for it. (Or are very lucky, which is unlikely.)

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  #6 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

What online brokerages allow you to place sell orders with trailing stops?

I'd use that option EVERY time if I had it available to me. But I realize that they're not perfect,
and a stock can drop in price by more than the stop amount in a single tick, causing you to miss your limit and bleed cash.

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  #7 (permalink)
Turveyd
Birmingham UK
 
 
Posts: 336 since May 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 64 received


Carrerain4 View Post
What online brokerages allow you to place sell orders with trailing stops?

I'd use that option EVERY time if I had it available to me. But I realize that they're not perfect,
and a stock can drop in price by more than the stop amount in a single tick, causing you to miss your limit and bleed cash.

I don't know, but I've given up on trailing SL's, useful if you've got a big SL I guess, but as a tight SL user to many exits around the BE mark for trades which would of worked out well.


Manual is the only way to do it, can't beat the human brain!

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  #8 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

Using Friday's trade as an example, and referring to the minute-by-minute chart, (I have the exact times of my trades written down), a 3 cent trailing stop would have increased my yield by 9 cents per share, possibly more.

I made 20 cents per share. I was happy with that. Making 29 just by setting a trailing stop would have been nicer still.

I'm looking to make SMALL gains, but KEEP them. I see a trailing stop as a way to improve my gains often enough to be worthwhile.

I'd use them if they were available to me but that option doesn't appear in the Vanguard buy/sell page.

I would only engage a sell order with a trailing stop once I've reached the point where my profit level is adequate,
which in my case would mean anything over 2 percent IF the stop kicks in the moment I set it.

I'm only asking for 2 percent. Anything more than that is welcome but I am going to do all I can to avoid letting greed cloud my judgement.

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  #9 (permalink)
Turveyd
Birmingham UK
 
 
Posts: 336 since May 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 64 received


Carrerain4 View Post
Using Friday's trade as an example, and referring to the minute-by-minute chart, (I have the exact times of my trades written down), a 3 cent trailing stop would have increased my yield by 9 cents per share, possibly more.

I made 20 cents per share. I was happy with that. Making 29 just by setting a trailing stop would have been nicer still.

I'm looking to make SMALL gains, but KEEP them. I see a trailing stop as a way to improve my gains often enough to be worthwhile.

I'd use them if they were available to me but that option doesn't appear in the Vanguard buy/sell page.

I would only engage a sell order with a trailing stop once I've reached the point where my profit level is adequate,
which in my case would mean anything over 2 percent IF the stop kicks in the moment I set it.

I'm only asking for 2 percent. Anything more than that is welcome but I am going to do all I can to avoid letting greed cloud my judgement.

Might of worked in this example, but how many examples will it fail in ??

Guess your getting in, approx 15mins after the open where the stock that opens up huge pulls back to before where it goes higher.

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  #10 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received


No, I just watched and screened stocks for an hour after the market opened before I made my move.

It took me that long to find something that I believed had what I was looking for. Something with room to move up
still, showing consistent upward movement, relatively high trade volume, and based on a stock that seems likely
to gain value in the near future. Based on this stock's long-term history, I think it will go back up in the future
and is probably undervalued at this time. Not a bad choice for the long term investor.

I realize there's often a drop in prices that happens any time between 11 and 12 and I was actually thinking about
waiting to see if that was going to happen, and actually that DID happen, but I believed it would peak before 11 and
my plan was to get in and out and be done before the peak and drop.

Which happened just as I hoped it would.

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  #11 (permalink)
Turveyd
Birmingham UK
 
 
Posts: 336 since May 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 64 received

Sweat, repeat it and take it to the bank, 1 day per week until rich .


I suppose Stock trading like that, is quite repeatable and time based, unlike Index's which are more random and don't really do the same every day sadly

Forex is totally random these days, given up on Forex.

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  #12 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

Waiting for Friday. Spending the time playing market games, trying to correlate charts with market news and events, and generally trying to learn as much as I can in the hopes that it will improve my yields.

Today's discovery: Gappers. Gappers that gap downwards almost NEVER gain value in the following day. Gappers that gap upwards USUALLY gain value during the day BUT their percentage gains are unlikely to be noteworthy,
thus I will not seek them out to trade in them.

In game playing I've seen clear evidence that stock prices fluctuate much faster than my charting program (TC2000)
can capture, in many cases. I've gotten quotes during the game that fluctuated by several cents per share over a period of seconds, and never saw that movement on the chart.

I swear I can feel it when people are about to trigger a sell-off. I've watched many stocks second by second and said "Selloff coming in a few seconds....."...and it happens. My instinct has been to (so far, always) sell my position on
the climb BEFORE the selloff hits.

If I were to be so foolish as to say that the market is predictable through the day, I would say that it is LESS predictable
after lunch and MORE predictable before lunch.

I'm trying to learn where people are getting the information that leads to stocks taking a big jump at the opening bell.

There's a lot of potential in getting to that position.

I need to see which brokerages offer early trading, I guess.


I've found that 4-traders.com seems to offer the best stock related news feed I've encountered so far, but I have not yet tried any paid services and can't justify the expense at this point.

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  #13 (permalink)
Turveyd
Birmingham UK
 
 
Posts: 336 since May 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 64 received

You can pay for the news, but your likely only getting faster than retail gets it for free, still behind the big boys.

I rarely trade US into the close randomness increases as the day goes on for me.

Looking forward to Fridays results, brings back memories of when I used to trade that kinda way!

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  #14 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

BOOM!!!! 10 percent gain!

I saw WPCS heading up on a nice steady trend after screening for a while this morning, and bought in.

1600 shares @ 1.0499

Sold at 1.1801

14 bucks to fees, leaving me 10.69 percent profit.

Raw profit was 201.27 and 14 dollars went to my commissions.

SWEET.

The price on WPCS peaked at 1.20 just a minute after I got out, and then it dumped to the 1.10 to 1.14 range for
some time afterwards so I'm very happy with my timing.

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  #15 (permalink)
 dominipip 
Naples, Fl
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, IB
Trading: Options
 
dominipip's Avatar
 
Posts: 12 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 35 given, 4 received

Which market gains do you like the best? Which one was the first you tried?
Thanks

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  #16 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

You mean market games? I've been playing with Marketwatch games for a while.

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  #17 (permalink)
Turveyd
Birmingham UK
 
 
Posts: 336 since May 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 64 received


Carrerain4 View Post
BOOM!!!! 10 percent gain!

I saw WPCS heading up on a nice steady trend after screening for a while this morning, and bought in.

1600 shares @ 1.0499

Sold at 1.1801

14 bucks to fees, leaving me 10.69 percent profit.

Raw profit was 201.27 and 14 dollars went to my commissions.

SWEET.

The price on WPCS peaked at 1.20 just a minute after I got out, and then it dumped to the 1.10 to 1.14 range for
some time afterwards so I'm very happy with my timing.


Nice, wasn't full account in I presume, so what's your account % growth ??

Double it with a margin account then make 20% once per week and Porsche time baby

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  #18 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

I went all in with my available account. Which was a little under 1700 dollars. Cash, no margin.

For some time to come, I'll ONLY be playing "all in" as the account is so small. At this stage, the fees are the first
consideration for me to beat. The bigger I can play, the less those fees will matter.

So to keep fees to a minimum, I play with my whole account and buy and sell just once per trading day.

I will revise that strategy in the future as the account (hopefully) grows.

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  #19 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
Philadelphia
 
Experience: None
Platform: corded black telephone
Trading: ticker tape
 
Posts: 2,893 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 1,683 given, 3,667 received

10 percent 20 percent 30 percent 40, 100 percent 200 percent 300 percent 1 billion!!!


R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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  #20 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

Playing the "percent game" is fantasizing, nothing more.

I have gamed the numbers to see how fast I could pass the million dollar mark at various levels of yield per
trading session. It just doesn't matter.

Making projections based on a few good trades is hardly something I actually intend to put any faith into.


What matters is only what I can really achieve and CONTINUE to achieve. Which may be a negative yield in the
long term, for all I know.

Lacking the ability to see into the future, my trade fund is at risk every time I hit the buy/sell button. I could lose
ALL of it for reasons I can't predict.

I know the risks. I know that most people can't consistently make money day trading. I just intend to find out for myself if maybe I MIGHT end up being one of those who CAN.

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  #21 (permalink)
 josh 
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
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Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
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Carrerain4 View Post
BOOM!!!! 10 percent gain!

1600 shares @ 1.0499

- Be careful trading $1 stocks, seriously. 1600 shares on a $2000 account in any stock is very risky.

- I would recommend a brokerage like IB for retail, if you are actively trading. You may not have the funds for an IB account but your commissions are a whopping .9% or so of your account for each trade. That is unsustainable, and your commissions alone at that rate will eat you alive. You mathematically cannot win with this fee structure if you are taking one or more trades per day. If your account grows it will be less as a percentage, but until that point it will be very difficult to grow.

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  #22 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

I don't seek out low cost stocks, I seek out what's making good percentage gains whether they're a buck a share or 300 bucks a share. It's only the percentage I'm after, nothing else. I'm looking for a steady upward mover at a high rate of movement. And I hope to be in and out in minutes.

In this case I was in and out in 10 minutes and 9 seconds.

At 10 dollars per trade, I have to make 20 bucks to cover the fees. (I'm currently paying 7 each, which will go away after I've made 25 trades as the first 25 are discounted.)

If I have to make 20 bucks to cover my fees, then with an account of 2000 dollars to trade I have to pull in more than 1 percent to break even.

At 10000 dollars then break even happens at 0.2 percent yield.

I'm going to switch my brokerage over to Tradeking, and cut my commissions in half, in the near future. But not just yet.

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  #23 (permalink)
Turveyd
Birmingham UK
 
 
Posts: 336 since May 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 64 received


Carrerain4 View Post
I went all in with my available account. Which was a little under 1700 dollars. Cash, no margin.

For some time to come, I'll ONLY be playing "all in" as the account is so small. At this stage, the fees are the first
consideration for me to beat. The bigger I can play, the less those fees will matter.

So to keep fees to a minimum, I play with my whole account and buy and sell just once per trading day.

I will revise that strategy in the future as the account (hopefully) grows.


Sounds good, can't use Margin below 2K anyway, doubles your profit and your losses ofcourse, but as your here for profits I say do it ASAP

Other than finding another trade and making another 10% on the same day, I'd say no revision required.

I've never had the balls to jump in mid way, which is stupid cause it's the best way for sure, momentum is your friend.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

Well, techncially I can't attempt a repeat in the same day due to SEC Rule T. The unsettled funds rule.

When you sell a security, the funds don't settle for three days. While you CAN buy another security with those unsettled funds, you can't SELL it until AFTER the funds have settled from the ORIGINAL sale. That would be "free riding" and a violation of the rules.

If you do, you violate rule T and get a 90 day cash only restriction on your account, so you can't use margin for 90 days.

But I do wonder, does that even matter on a cash account basis? Violating Rule T will restrict you to cash transactions, but does that restrict you from using unsettled funds to make those additional transactions?

Is there an additional level of penalty for continuing to violate Rule T, accepting that it keeps you from trading on margin?

In short, is it REALLY a bad thing to violate Rule T if you weren't intending to use margin anyway?

I'm not planning to experiment and find out. At this point in the game, I'm doing exactly what I'm comfortable
with and so far I can't express displeasure with the results.

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  #25 (permalink)
Turveyd
Birmingham UK
 
 
Posts: 336 since May 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 64 received


Carrerain4 View Post
Well, techncially I can't attempt a repeat in the same day due to SEC Rule T. The unsettled funds rule.

When you sell a security, the funds don't settle for three days. While you CAN buy another security with those unsettled funds, you can't SELL it until AFTER the funds have settled from the ORIGINAL sale. That would be "free riding" and a violation of the rules.

If you do, you violate rule T and get a 90 day cash only restriction on your account, so you can't use margin for 90 days.

But I do wonder, does that even matter on a cash account basis? Violating Rule T will restrict you to cash transactions, but does that restrict you from using unsettled funds to make those additional transactions?

Is there an additional level of penalty for continuing to violate Rule T, accepting that it keeps you from trading on margin?

In short, is it REALLY a bad thing to violate Rule T if you weren't intending to use margin anyway?

I'm not planning to experiment and find out. At this point in the game, I'm doing exactly what I'm comfortable
with and so far I can't express displeasure with the results.


Okay sorry, must of brought that 1 in since I the pattern day trading rule, moved me to Options then to Forex currently Index's!!

Should be okay on a strictly cash account but ? ask your broker I guess!

The lengths they go to, to stop us day trading and making money and make us into investor losers, is quite amazing isn't it

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  #26 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

Yeah, these days, in the digital age, there isn't any RATIONAL reason to even have a settled funds rule. The electronic transaction should simply be made, then verified instantly, and then considered settled.

But then it would be just that much easier for someone to keep making trades until he's had enough, profit or loss.
No doubt that WOULD stir up the markets quite a bit and certainly add enormous volatility.


But now, your brokerage can hold your money in a potentially profitable money market account for three days while
funds settle, and when you add up the money in unsettled funds at a major brokerage, that represents a respectable sum of money to be made off of the money market. So why wouldn't the brokerages want to preserve the status quo?

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  #27 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
Philadelphia
 
Experience: None
Platform: corded black telephone
Trading: ticker tape
 
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Thanks: 1,683 given, 3,667 received

The pattern day trading rule is ridiculous and can be avoided if you trade from a broker outside the united states.

How can one open a futures account with a 1000 to day trade and it's any more safe than trading stocks with 10,000 only being able to make 3 trades a week?

It's funny how the world works. Seems like they need to get on the same page, maybe drink some coffee, and change the rules

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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  #28 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

The pattern day trading rule can be avoided by using multiple accounts. I think... Use account A on Monday and Thursday, use account B on Tuesday and Friday, and use account C on Wednesday.

At some point I hope to be doing exactly that. Multiple accounts with different brokerages, allowing me to trade every day.

I still intend to be playing "all in" with any given account on any given day I choose to trade. But at some point,
IF my fund grows the way it MIGHT, then I'll have to give consideration to the size of my trades relative to the
activity of that particular stock. It's fine to be a drop of water in the bucket, but I don't want to be the bowling
ball dropped into the bucket. I can't see that it would improve my chances of making a profit if I place trades
worth a significant percentage of the day's total trade value.

"Today's volume for ABC was 2 million shares traded, of which 1 million were traded by one particular idiot
day trader who got taken to the cleaners as a result of his stupidity. Film at eleven."

Never trade so big that you move the market on your own. If you're NOT a market maker, don't try to BE a market maker.


I hope that's an issue I have to contend with at some point.

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  #29 (permalink)
Turveyd
Birmingham UK
 
 
Posts: 336 since May 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 64 received

Me and a lot of other small retail people, 15 years back where making a lot of $$$'s, I was full time for 8months until the first rule basically ruined it, there rules to protect us are rules to stop us taking there money, I'm 99.999% sure of it.

Then ofcourse the big players with 25K with 400% intraday margin basically all handed over there money because of the margin and they went in big, blew it and walked away, where as retail, lost a little kept plugging at it, until they started to make a little on mass = A LOT!!

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  #30 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

I have to take a business trip to Texas so I will not be trading in the coming week. Look for my next trade report on Friday, August 8th.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

I'm back, and not at all thrilled to learn that Mobileye's IPO closed up 48 percent.

I had intended to watch that one closely. But couldn't do it due to the trip.

BUT, to make money on that sort of IPO, you have to buy in at the IPO's initial offered price
and that's something I don't actually know how to do yet.

HOW can I buy into the stock of a new IPO at the price listed before trading begins?

If you know, please tell me. I definitely want to try my luck with some IPOs.

I expect the Alibaba IPO will be quite profitable for those who get in on the ground floor. I intend to be one of them
IF that is possible. The moment I know the symbol and the price is set, I will attempt to place a limit order for it
via my brokerage account. I'll set the limit order a little above the IPO set price but well below what I THINK the
stock will do in the first day.

If it turns out that the opening price is higher than my limit order, then I don't lose a penny, but will of course have to cancel
the open order to free up my money for other trades.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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Today I watched, and did not trade. It's not my trading day anyway. (Friday)

I simply couldn't see a winner.

At the end of the day I checked every stock I was watching and checked all the high percentage gainers and
not one of them had the pattern I'm looking for and, so far, have seen in every stock I've (so far) put money
into and made a profit on.

Even in hindsight, the winners weren't evident.

If I HAD gone into any of them, it would have been by random chance and the vast majority of them would
have given me no significant yield. In fact most of them would have failed to meet my 2 percent yield goal.
Most of them would have eventually caused me to lose money.

This helps to validate the integrity of my selection criteria.

In essence, I'm looking for a steady upward climb starting at the opening bell, and the rate of climb needs to
be fairly fast. That's the FIRST criteria I'm looking for.

I don't see that I have (at this time) any way of reliably predicting what will take off tomorrow, so I have to
base my selection criteria on observed performance TODAY.

Tomorrow (Tuesday) MIGHT be a trading day for me. I'll watch and see what happens in the morning and
see if I get that unique feeling that I always get when I pick a star. Regardless of whether I buy tomorrow
or not, I won't buy again until Friday. (Because of the 3 day settled funds rule. I need my funds to be available
for day trading on my Fridays off. So this week, only Monday and Tuesday allowed the possibility of trading before
Friday as I didn't trade last week so my funds have been settled for several days.)

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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My philosophy of picking stocks is subject to revision at any time due to market experiences.

Tuesday I went in and didn't do so well. I picked a winner but by the time I bought in, all the winning was over and done and I should have seen it. A stock that opens at 1.00 per share is not likely to keep climbing after it's hit 1.20 per share, but I bought in at 1.21 per share and consider myself lucky to have gotten out of it before it hurt me too much.

I should have seen that trap. In hindsight it's very obvious.

It didn't have reasonable room to run.

And volume dropped off dramatically in mid-morning.

I gave back most of the profit I made on the previous trading day.


I've been watching and trying to pick winners based on early chart data, and watching my picks through the day,
and the results have not been as encouraging as I could hope for.

So I"m going to readjust my methodology and spend more time screening for probable gainers based on market related news articles from all the various sources I read, which are CNBC, Marketwatch, Zerohedge, 4-traders-com, Reuters, Bloomberg, and others.

We will see what happens. Friday is my next trading day.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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Friday's trade is planned out.

Tomorrow is the IPO for Green Bancorp with a starting price of 15 dollars per share.

I found that by CALLING my brokerage, they can take my order via the phone at 8 AM tomorrow morning,
and I'll be in it. I have to place a limit order which in this case will be @ 15.50/share.


Since this isn't an IP for some hot trendy consumer product manufacturer, I don't expect it to do quite as well
as some notorious IPOs have done in the past. (FB, Amazon, Google, etc) But I do expect it to be worthwhile.


The brokerage should be able to tell me when the stock "goes live" and appears on the trading boards, which
should be somewhere between 10 and 11 AM. But I can buy it from the brokerage at 8 AM so I'll be all over that.

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 Big Mike 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Friday's trade is planned out.

Tomorrow is the IPO for Green Bancorp with a starting price of 15 dollars per share.

I found that by CALLING my brokerage, they can take my order via the phone at 8 AM tomorrow morning,
and I'll be in it. I have to place a limit order which in this case will be @ 15.50/share.


Since this isn't an IP for some hot trendy consumer product manufacturer, I don't expect it to do quite as well
as some notorious IPOs have done in the past. (FB, Amazon, Google, etc) But I do expect it to be worthwhile.


The brokerage should be able to tell me when the stock "goes live" and appears on the trading boards, which
should be somewhere between 10 and 11 AM. But I can buy it from the brokerage at 8 AM so I'll be all over that.



Mike

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Paige
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..Careful what you ask for.....

Peace,
Paige

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 tturner86 
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Big Mike View Post


Mike



Looking up ticker now so I can watch tomorrow.

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 tturner86 
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Carrerain4 View Post
My philosophy of picking stocks is subject to revision at any time due to market experiences.

Tuesday I went in and didn't do so well. I picked a winner but by the time I bought in, all the winning was over and done and I should have seen it. A stock that opens at 1.00 per share is not likely to keep climbing after it's hit 1.20 per share, but I bought in at 1.21 per share and consider myself lucky to have gotten out of it before it hurt me too much.

I should have seen that trap. In hindsight it's very obvious.

It didn't have reasonable room to run.

And volume dropped off dramatically in mid-morning.

I gave back most of the profit I made on the previous trading day.


I've been watching and trying to pick winners based on early chart data, and watching my picks through the day,
and the results have not been as encouraging as I could hope for.

So I"m going to readjust my methodology and spend more time screening for probable gainers based on market related news articles from all the various sources I read, which are CNBC, Marketwatch, Zerohedge, 4-traders-com, Reuters, Bloomberg, and others.

We will see what happens. Friday is my next trading day.

Just don't make revisions during market hours.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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tturner86 View Post


Looking up ticker now so I can watch tomorrow.

It won't appear on the ticker until some time later in the morning.

Look it up now and you won't find it.

That's how it goes with IPOs.

Calling my broker now...

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 josh 
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Looking up ticker now so I can watch tomorrow.

GNBC

The IPO range for GNBC was $15 - $17, and has now priced at the very low end of the range at $15. For an IPO, "buy low" is not something I want to be doing, I'd much rather it be pushing the highs of the range to buy (take for example GPRO, which had a $21-$24 range and priced at $24 and opened in the secondary around $30). I'm sure @Carrerain4 has done this research though, and determined that it's a good trade for him so best of luck! I won't have actual popcorn, but I'll be peeking in. :-)

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 josh 
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GNBC currently trading 16.50s, that's gotta be good for at least one Porsche!

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 Big Mike 
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josh View Post
GNBC currently trading 16.50s, that's gotta be good for at least one Porsche!

But it opened like $16.07, higher than his $15.50 limit. So no fill. But I have a feeling he bought in after the open anyway.

Mike

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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I managed to make better than 2 percent so I'm happy. I did have to revise my limit order to get in but it worked out OK. I'd be happy to make 2 percent if I made that every time. It does add up.


It was not an epic example of an IPO nor did I expect it to be one. The really hot ones are NOT banks seeking to
raise money.


What I was told last night by the brokerage was slightly inaccurate. I couldn't REALLY get in before the stock went live on the ticker.

Raw numbers:

Bought 105 shares @ 16.5999
Sold 105 shares @ 17.0142
Securities/transaction fee $.04
Gross profit $43.50, fees $14.00
Net profit $29.46

Not awesome, but profit is profit and I DID make mistakes that I hopefully learned from so next time
it should (hopefully) be even better.

I'm satisfied with it.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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Might as well say what's on my mind.

Granted, I'm still rather new to trading and ANYTHING can happen as I continue trading. I might make great money,
I might lose my whole trading fund, or anything in between.

I've looked at all kinds of trading strategies, most of which have names I don't even recall at the moment,
and I've looked at how news releases affect prices. I've looked at technical based trading with all sorts of weird and
creative indicators, many of which I don't understand.

in truth I am very skeptical of any technical indicator system for day trading. My rationale for this skepticism is this:

You're not trading against a mathematical phenomenon.

You're trading against a market that is completely controlled by the actions and influences of PEOPLE, and yes,
that includes automated trading algorithms running on fast computers, as they are simply executing algorithms
created to do what the algorithm writer would do himself, only faster.

It's a mind game. You are trading against herd instinct, the mob mentality, and a few other people who have the
predatory mentality that I associate with what I would BELIEVE would be a successful day trader.

This makes it worse than gambling! At least when you're gambling, you can determine both "real" odds and "house" odds, with the difference between the two being the house advantage.

Trading in the markets is not quite so rational and predictable as a roulette wheel.

At this point in time I am very skeptical of the usage of technical indicators for trading. I'd rather try to figure out
(quickly) how news releases will affect stock prices and try my best to get into a stock that is likely to jump over the
good news before most of the jump has already happened.

This particular method is one that I have not YET put into practice but it will be the basis for next week's trades.

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Thxo
West Java
 
 
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Carrerain4 View Post

This makes it worse than gambling! At least when you're gambling, you can determine both "real" odds and "house" odds, with the difference between the two being the house advantage.

Trading in the markets is not quite so rational and predictable as a roulette wheel.

As far as i know the house edge is always fixed at 5.26% (if two zeros on the wheel) ...
then how roulette wheel can be more rational & predictable than trading ? can you elaborate ...

for me, TA is just a tool for 'how' get in (in order to minimizing risk) and FA for 'when' to get in ...


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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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Life has thrown a curve ball at me.

I'm now unemployed, but actually quite happy about it, at least at this point.

So, I decided that it was time to move my schedule up for trading.

I have two accounts I can trade off of. The second one, which is larger by several times than the first one,
has been held in reserve and I did not intend to start actively trading with it yet.

So, I compromised: I'll trade with it, but ONLY use it to buy stocks that I do NOT expect to make good money off of
on a one day time scale. This is for longer term investments.

I watched Sea World stock (SEAS) get hammered on Tuesday. It dropped a third of its value.

But, I believed, and still believe, that it took more of a hit than it deserved and that it will recover much of its lost
value, in part because the company is still healthy and has announced plans to improve the situations that have
been the subject of some criticism levelled at the company.

So, I bought into SEAS at the bargain price of $18.90/share, 385 shares. It did drop even farther, actually breaking
below 18/share briefly, but that's OK and I actually expected that that could happen.

Today it recovered substantially off its low point but it's not back up to my buy price. It was up 66 cents/share today.

Of course in this game you can never be REALLY sure what will happen, but I am as cautiously optimistic about this
giving me a very worthwhile profit in the near term (a few weeks) as I have ever been about any stock yet.

My investment in this stock in my "B" account stands at 7276.5 dollars.

I have a limit order in place for 22 dollars a share. I think that's VERY conservative and it will go substantially higher than that.

At a price of 22 per share, it'll be worth $8470 to me, for a profit of $1179.50 after paying commissions.

In actuality, if it passes 21 per share, I will set a stop at 20.50 and if it pushes up another 50 cents, I'll reset the stop
to 21 and reset my limit order higher by a dollar. And continue the process until the stop triggers.

I don't actually see any reason why this can't eventually go back to its pre-crash price. Call it 30 bucks a share.

At 30 bucks a share, that would net me $3859.50. I would really like to see that but of course there are no guarantees.

Oh, this is interesting:

I've signed up for MomentumJunkie alerts.

I've only received a few of them and have not yet acted on any alert they've sent me but I have watched their
recommendations.

So far, every one of them has done amazing things. If their track record continues to turn in the same kind
of performance for the next several episodes, I'll take the risk.

Yesterday's tip was CJTF which spiked over 100 percent during the day, well after I got the email.

I'm quite aware that any such tips as that would be a "pump and dump" sort of deal, but that's OK if you
get out before the big dump comes along, isn't it?

I'm inclined to sell while the stock is still on the upswing. That's my cautious nature at work.


So from now on, I'll have the option of journalling both my "A" and "B" accounts, allowing me to make up to four
trades per week. The "A" account is unrestricted but smaller in value, and to be honest about it, the larger "B"
account is a retirement account. If I cash out of that account, I may have to pay a penalty, but if that's what
I have to do in order to keep the bills paid without a job, then so be it.

I had intended that eventually I would be able to derive an income from trading. Now it seems that I have to at
least try to use my trading to supplement my income a lot earlier than I expected. I'm not sure that I'm ready yet
but it's kind of a "Flap the wings or go splat" situation, or at least, not very far from it.

In total my tradable accounts are worth about 10K at the moment. I can trade (without violating Rule T) as much
as 14 times in 4 weeks and if I can just pull out 1 percent off of each transaction (averaged) then I could cover my
basic expenses and a little more. Which I'd leave in the accounts and let the accounts grow.

But even asking for a consistent 1 percent is a bit optimistic. I'm sure everybody reading this knows that you can
not expect to always pick a winner no matter how carefully you research it and plan it out.





I expect

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 tturner86 
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Don't count your chickens before they're hatched.

As a trader all you can do is cut losers quick, let your winners run, and manage your risk. I wish you the best of luck. But being newly unemployed can cause emotional strains that may affect your trading. You could feel pressured to make something happen, make some money, or anything. If you feel these pressures, step back and evaluate if you should be trading at that moment.

Not being a downer or naysayer, just being real with you. Keep your chin up and feet moving forward.

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 Big Mike 
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You are making all the usual mistakes and are right on track to lose your money. Read my signature if you want help.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Life has thrown a curve ball at me.


I've signed up for MomentumJunkie alerts.

I've only received a few of them and have not yet acted on any alert they've sent me but I have watched their
recommendations.

So far, every one of them has done amazing things. If their track record continues to turn in the same kind
of performance for the next several episodes, I'll take the risk.

Yesterday's tip was CJTF which spiked over 100 percent during the day, well after I got the email.

You know why you get the e-mail alert after the event, don't you???

They want those-born-every-minute to buy the stock so they can unload their shares. You will never get an alert before the event happens it will always be after.

Just for the heck of it I decided the trading chart profile of CJTF for the past 5 days

Here is a picture of the chart



I am not known for my eyesight...but I cannot see the 100% gain On Thursday.



Even if I look back ten days....the only possible trade that comes close to 100% gain would be to buy at the low for the day on Aug 7 @ about $0.009/share and sell on the high on Aug 14 @ about $0.018

Some tip...a ten day hold on a very risky stock with an insane buy-in at $0.009/share and of course, they tell you about it AFTER the event.

You are not one of those born-every-minute...but if you continue using such sources you will be.

As far as your SEAS play goes...there is a remote chance it might work though I don't think you could explain why...other than your gut feel...

here is a chart of this stock



The stock appears to be just resting as the lower Bollie catches up to it....I think there is more downside yet though...or it could rise to $22 as you suggest...but that price will not rise as fast as it fell...could take 10 days or a lot more to get there IF you are correct...it still has to resolve that fall as a bottom first though and as I said I'd give odds it will fall further.

I agree with @Big Mike on his assessment of your chances

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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I have not chosen to pursue any of those "hot tips" as of yet but I'm watching them with interest and skepticism.
They're interesting, but of course I realize that the people who put them out are most likely trying to pump and dump
thus their offers should be treated with all the skepticism due to a live hand grenade found while digging at an old battlefield site.



Right now the only thing I have money in, stock wise, is SEAS and I do expect a profitable recovery but I believe it will require me to be patient. Since that particular account has always been used for buying and holding in the long term,
holding SEAS for the mid to long term is quite within my plans.


I'm trying very hard to avoid making rash decisions. Reading your comments and other content on this site is very helpful. Thanks.

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 drago1 
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Here is my counsel. Find a more reliable car. Two years ago I had a gt2 engine blow up ( shaft ) with only 30,000 miles. -Little princess cost me over $11,000 in repairs. ( and that low price was because i paid the mechanic in cash. Not joking )

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 josh 
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Carrerain4 View Post
So, I bought into SEAS at the bargain price of $18.90/share, 385 shares. It did drop even farther, actually breaking below 18/share briefly, but that's OK and I actually expected that that could happen.

Today it recovered substantially off its low point but it's not back up to my buy price. It was up 66 cents/share today.

Of course in this game you can never be REALLY sure what will happen, but I am as cautiously optimistic about this
giving me a very worthwhile profit in the near term (a few weeks) as I have ever been about any stock yet.

My investment in this stock in my "B" account stands at 7276.5 dollars.

I have a limit order in place for 22 dollars a share. I think that's VERY conservative and it will go substantially higher than that.

At a price of 22 per share, it'll be worth $8470 to me, for a profit of $1179.50 after paying commissions.

In actuality, if it passes 21 per share, I will set a stop at 20.50 and if it pushes up another 50 cents, I'll reset the stop
to 21 and reset my limit order higher by a dollar. And continue the process until the stop triggers.

I don't actually see any reason why this can't eventually go back to its pre-crash price. Call it 30 bucks a share.

At 30 bucks a share, that would net me $3859.50. I would really like to see that but of course there are no guarantees.


I keep reading your post above for the worst case scenario, i.e., how much you will lose if it does NOT work. All I can find though, is how much you will make if it does work. You have your orders to take profit, you are optimistic, you feel great about it, you know how much you will make if it works -- all good.

But the most important thing is, what if it does not work out in your favor? What if they dump the shit out of it and it opens Monday at $15? Or if it goes sideways for a week and does a slow grind of death down to low teens? In other words, where do you bail if the orcas at seaworld grow legs and walk out of their tanks and start killing people? I'm being facetious but you should, even as an investor and not a trader, have a point at which you say, "I don't like this stock any more, there are better opportunities to put my money elsewhere, I'll cut my loss, and move on."

Let me give a couple of examples, both pretty embarrassing:

- Back in early July I purchased GRPN at around 6.50. I liked the way it looked and was playing for a move to $10 in the next couple of months. Well, it just acted like shit, and I did not like it. Before earnings I puked it at around $6.30. I did not like the loss but it was only 20 cents. Well, I felt like a real asshole when they bought it up prior to earnings up to $7. I would have taken some profit there before they reported, but I was out of the move. Then of course it tanked and has been sitting south of $6 for a while. My exit was not good, but I had an exit, and I got out.

- FSLR ... I bought $63s and held into earnings and did not like how it behaved and got out just above $60. Well the next day they bought it up and now it's sitting just under $70. Earnings sucked, stock did not do what I wanted it to do, so I missed a $10 move. Maybe the worst exit I could have possibly made. I still wish I were in the stock.

On the positive side:

- I bought LNKD at $155s and held through earnings, and now it's trading $220. I did not want it below $150 and fortunately it did not trade there.

- I bought TSLA in the $217s and enjoyed a $50 profit. I was willing to let it go down to low 200s (was going to add $210s) but was going to exit there.


The common theme through these is that I had an exit strategy. My exits sucked for FSLR and was not great for GRPN, but I had to have a plan. I also had profit targets as mentioned above, and LNKD and TSLA have done better than I hoped they would. But I was prepared to dump TSLA if it traded below $205, and LNKD if it traded below $150. You have to have a "get out" point, because stocks WILL keep going against you at some point, and if that happens, it can wipe out months of profit in one trade. When you fail to plan for the worst case scenario, you open yourself up to catastrophe.

You could use options if a strict price-based exit is not how you want to approach it. SEAS sep 17.50 puts are $0.70 and the 15s are $0.20. I usually have a price/behavior based exit for trades like this and so I tend to not buy premium but it's one option. If indeed you are willing to hold for a month, then you could get 2 of the 17.50s and 2 15s for about $200 and be fully covered. Or some combination to partially hedge.

Last bit of unsolicited opinion: it is all good buying a stock that is "on sale." However, very often these fire sale buys take so long to play out that your money would best be deployed on something which is actually going higher. I'm not suggesting "buying high" ... often you can often combine a "buy on sale" approach with a stock that is generally trending higher, or has made a turn off lows. See LNKD as mentioned earlier for a great example of that. It was absolute shit for about 8 months, and then made what I thought was a good turn. It got slammed in early July and I bought there. It had already made the turn, and I had a good price to lean on ($150) if indeed I was wrong. That is very different than buying a stock that has been recently slammed to all-time lows and looking for a recovery. The issue with buying SEAS here is that you have nowhere to lean... how low is "too low"? Said another way, it's difficult to think this way, but a stock like GILD, FSLR, TSLA, all have a higher likelihood (in my opinion) of going higher than SEAS. Of note is that SEAS short float is less than 4%. Not enough shorts to screw IMO. Compare with TSLA which is 25% shorted and at all-time highs. Which is more likely to go higher? Buy high, sell higher is often a better approach than buying low, because a bottom has not yet been established. That being said, I sincerely hope SEAS works out for you and will be rooting for (but not buying) the stock.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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Thanks for the advice, I'm taking notes.


Now, as for that "hot tip", just to be totally honest about it, I received the email alert for CJTF at 9:31 AM, only a minute after the market opened.

At that time its price was 0.0140.
At 10:07 it had dipped to 0.0100.
At 3 PM it was up to 0.0125, up 25 percent from its bottom.

I must have been thinking of another chart when I said it made 100 percent. Most probably that happened.

It's not the sort of stock I'd get into anyway. While I'm not opposed to the idea of buying certain stocks that
may trade at or below a dollar a share, I have no interest in stocks that trade in fractions of a cent per share.
Junk is junk and there's a reason for it.


As for possible losses, I am always aware that 100 percent of my money in play is at risk of disappearing.
Yes, 100 percent. ALL of it. Any given company might go belly up right now for any reason. It could get
sued out of existence. The owner could just pack up and shut the place down and end up in Argentina with
the proceeds.

I think I mentioned it before, but I follow the fireplace principle. I consider all money in play to be sitting in a fireplace,
and a fire might start at any time and burn it all up. So if I'm not comfortable with taking that risk, then I won't take
that risk at all. But then again, someone could drop money down the chimney and add to that pile.


I only play with money that I CAN live without. But if my plays work in my favor, then they will allow me to live better
in the future.

You can't be in any game unless you're prepared to lose. I hope to win but yes, I am prepared to lose. It will not kill me.

As for exit strategies, I have one. But it's not as well defined as it should be, and I know that.

Currently I have a stop loss set for 17.90 for SEAS. If it trips I lose a buck a share, 385 dollars. That won't kill me.

I can change it at any time if I start thinking that maybe it's going to bottom out lower than that, and decide to ride it out,
but my current school of thought is that it has bottomed out already and the recovery, although slow, has begun. And
if I'm wrong about that, then so be it, call it a learning experience. The company has already issued press releases
stating that they are going to address the major issues that they have been criticized for, so I don't see any reason for
sentiment on the company to go more negative at this time.

Somebody might come up with some technical indicator that says it hasn't bottomed yet, and if that's the case, please
do explain how this technical indicator can predict the emotional state of the people who are trading in the stock. Honestly
I do not really understand or even see how technicals can predict something as hard to predict as human behavior, particularly
when money is at stake. The quest for money makes the most stable people do weird things.

I'm trying to learn about technical indicators but I'm just not (yet) seeing how they connect with human nature, which
has to be important if you are trying to predict what people will do.

As for options, it's not an option with my B account. Being a retirement account, options trading is not available from my brokerage,
and I don't really understand options but I do understand this: Bet wrong on an option and you lose ALL the money you spent on that option. That doesn't sound like it's for me.

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  #54 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


Carrerain4 View Post
Thanks for the advice, I'm taking notes.


Now, as for that "hot tip", just to be totally honest about it, I received the email alert for CJTF at 9:31 AM, only a minute after the market opened.

At that time its price was 0.0140.
At 10:07 it had dipped to 0.0100.
At 3 PM it was up to 0.0125, up 25 percent from its bottom.

I must have been thinking of another chart when I said it made 100 percent. Most probably that happened.

It's not the sort of stock I'd get into anyway. While I'm not opposed to the idea of buying certain stocks that
may trade at or below a dollar a share, I have no interest in stocks that trade in fractions of a cent per share.
Junk is junk and there's a reason for it.


Really.... then toss away that alert service because 99% of their alerts are less than $0.50 and probably most of those 100+% type gains are in the $0.05/share or less.



Carrerain4 View Post
As for exit strategies, I have one. But it's not as well defined as it should be, and I know that.

Currently I have a stop loss set for 17.90 for SEAS. If it trips I lose a buck a share, 385 dollars. That won't kill me.

do you honestly think setting that stop-loss protects you??? It may not, you know..

All a stop-loss does is initiate a market order to sell your stock at the best price it can get. It could sail through that Stop-loss and not get filled if there is another major sell-off, though it will enter your order to sell it....

let us say the market opens with a drop to $17.50...it will try to sell your stock at $17.50 but if the price falls further your sell order falls as well and it depends on where you are in the queue ahead of you as to when your order fills... when it reaches the bottom of that spike your order will probably be filled there.....as you watch the stock recover.

Stop-losses may bail you out but they are no guarantee to do it at the price you want.



Carrerain4 View Post
Somebody might come up with some technical indicator that says it hasn't bottomed yet, and if that's the case, please
do explain how this technical indicator can predict the emotional state of the people who are trading in the stock. Honestly
I do not really understand or even see how technicals can predict something as hard to predict as human behavior, particularly
when money is at stake. The quest for money makes the most stable people do weird things.

I'm trying to learn about technical indicators but I'm just not (yet) seeing how they connect with human nature, which
has to be important if you are trying to predict what people will do.

frankly I would not even try to do so with that attitude to TA. You don't have the mind set for it.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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Well, mindsets can be changed with a little information. Such information might include some evidence presented
that shows that someone has consistently done well based on TA.

I can be persuaded, and even convinced, if shown adequate data.

But at the moment, I don't have any information which convinces me that the actions of people who are pursuing money
by trading securities (which I would argue is more difficult even than gambling as when you gamble, you gamble against set odds) are likely to be accurately predicted by any form of technical analysis.

I am neither dismissing the idea nor embracing it. I simply don't know what to think about it. I lack data and evidence.


I am aware that a stop loss does not carry a guarantee of execution right on the set stop price. It is quite possible
to miss that mark by quite a bit due to rapid movements in price and delays in trade execution.

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  #56 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
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@Carrerain4

once you start thinking about what you can buy with your unrealized profits from trading, ...you're doomed to failure.

learn how to trade - focus on process vs. outcome

the worst thing that could happen to you, at this point in your development as a trader, is that by some random chance you made money

you'll mistakenly think that you know actually know what you're doing, and that would inevitably prove to be disastrous

for example: you are playing blackjack and you are dealt 17 - you ask the dealer to hit you, and you are dealt a 4

bad process, good outcome

just to give you an idea of how difficult it is to CONSISTENTLY make money day-trading, is a quote from a recent dr. brett article

"In the average year, 360,000 individuals engage in day trading. While about 13% earn profits net of fees in the typical year, the results of our analysis suggest that less than 1% of day traders (less than 1,000 out of 360,000) are able to outperform consistently." (p. 15).

In other words, 87% of day traders in a given year lose money after fees are taken into account. About .28%--one in 360--is able to make money after fees year over year.


now you can take that .28 figure and reduce it even more, if you were to include traders who can actually live off their trading profits AND grow their accounts simultaneously

as a trader who has lived off his trading income and has supported a family with his trading income his entire adult life, i can tell you, i NEVER think about how much money i am going to make, or need to make, and my monthly nut is well into 5 figures after taxes.

all i am concerned about is if i am trading good - do i understand what is driving price and are my decisions sound - am i keeping my draw-downs to manageable levels - and am i turning short-term positions into bigger and longer-term winners when the opportunity presents itself

i am not concerned about the outcome; that will take care of itself; if the process is sound

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 shodson 
Quantoholic
OC, California, USA
 
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I'm new to this thread. Just wanted to say you really need a broker with lower commissions if you want to give yourself a chance at these account sizes. The same trades you are paying $14 commission for would only cost me about $1-$2. If you average up all of you winners after say 20 trades, and your losers and you average win size is, say, $20, trading that way with a lower commission would increase your average trade gains by more than 50%. If you asked any business man if he would like to increase his profit margins by 50% he would jump out of a window to know how.

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 tturner86 
Elite Member
Portland, Oregon
 
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tigertrader View Post
@Carrerain4

once you start thinking about what you can buy with your unrealized profits from trading, ...you're doomed to failure.

learn how to trade - focus on process vs. outcome

the worst thing that could happen to you, at this point in your development as a trader, is that by some random chance you made money

you'll mistakenly think that you know actually know what you're doing, and that would inevitably prove to be disastrous

for example: you are playing blackjack and you are dealt 17 - you ask the dealer to hit you, and you are dealt a 4

bad process, good outcome

just to give you an idea of how difficult it is to CONSISTENTLY make money day-trading, is a quote from a recent dr. brett article

"In the average year, 360,000 individuals engage in day trading. While about 13% earn profits net of fees in the typical year, the results of our analysis suggest that less than 1% of day traders (less than 1,000 out of 360,000) are able to outperform consistently." (p. 15).

In other words, 87% of day traders in a given year lose money after fees are taken into account. About .28%--one in 360--is able to make money after fees year over year.


now you can take that .28 figure and reduce it even more, if you were to include traders who can actually live off their trading profits AND grow their accounts simultaneously

as a trader who has lived off his trading income and has supported a family with his trading income his entire adult life, i can tell you, i NEVER think about how much money i am going to make, or need to make, and my monthly nut is well into 5 figures after taxes.

all i am concerned about is if i am trading good - do i understand what is driving price and are my decisions sound - am i keeping my draw-downs to manageable levels - and am i turning short-term positions into bigger and longer-term winners when the opportunity presents itself

i am not concerned about the outcome; that will take care of itself; if the process is sound

@Carrerain4 @tigertrader just posted this for @budfox but I believe it can help you too.

Thank you Tiger for both these post, I know they were geared for these two guys, but I found nuggets for me in both post.

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Limitless100
New York, New York
 
 
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Turveyd View Post
Nice, wasn't full account in I presume, so what's your account % growth ??

Double it with a margin account then make 20% once per week and Porsche time baby

I can't tell if your posts are sarcastic or serious...Your telling an amateur to leverage himself to go all in with no solid strategy. Terrible idea.


Carrerain4 View Post
Thanks for the advice, I'm taking notes.


Now, as for that "hot tip", just to be totally honest about it, I received the email alert for CJTF at 9:31 AM, only a minute after the market opened.

At that time its price was 0.0140.
At 10:07 it had dipped to 0.0100.
At 3 PM it was up to 0.0125, up 25 percent from its bottom.

So let me get this straight. This reputable "alert" you are subscribed to would have lost you almost 29% if you bought on the alert and sold when you realized your 2000 account was now only worth $1400 in 30 minutes time. OR, if you held on, you would have lost 11%. What makes you think you would have magically picked the bottom at .0100?

I must have been thinking of another chart when I said it made 100 percent. Most probably that happened.

It's not the sort of stock I'd get into anyway. While I'm not opposed to the idea of buying certain stocks that
may trade at or below a dollar a share, I have no interest in stocks that trade in fractions of a cent per share.
Junk is junk and there's a reason for it.


As for possible losses, I am always aware that 100 percent of my money in play is at risk of disappearing.
Yes, 100 percent. ALL of it. Any given company might go belly up right now for any reason. It could get
sued out of existence. The owner could just pack up and shut the place down and end up in Argentina with
the proceeds. I think I mentioned it before, but I follow the fireplace principle. I consider all money in play to be sitting in a fireplace,
and a fire might start at any time and burn it all up. So if I'm not comfortable with taking that risk, then I won't take
that risk at all. But then again, someone could drop money down the chimney and add to that pile.

I'm sorry to say this but you have a gamblers mentality. You haven't yet mentioned a single risk parameter you have created in order to defer, or eliminate, destruction of your account. All you say is that your ready to lost it all, you can lose it all, it's money that can burn, it will all disappear. Nobody will drop money down that chimney, you have to go out and get the money if you want more in your pile before it goes up in flames.


I only play with money that I CAN live without. But if my plays work in my favor, then they will allow me to live better
in the future.

You can't be in any game unless you're prepared to lose. I hope to win but yes, I am prepared to lose. It will not kill me.

As for exit strategies, I have one. But it's not as well defined as it should be, and I know that.

Currently I have a stop loss set for 17.90 for SEAS. If it trips I lose a buck a share, 385 dollars. That won't kill me.

So you bought at $18.90? What made you want to buy there? Looking at the chart, assuming you bought on thursday, it appears you bought into the morning spike, which was almost the high of the entire day. What caused you to want to buy here?

As I stated earlier, it seems that your entire mindset is off. You are going about this the wrong way. People are to inclined to being nice and sugarcoating things for everyone. Sometimes you need to hear something that makes you genuinely stop and think, or strikes a nerve within you. So hopefully some of the things your hearing on this site will do that and save you from losing more than you need to.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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Thank you (again) for your input and insights. Criticism and commentary is always welcome, and I LIKE to get it in a straightforward, direct, and un-sugar-coated manner.


Some of my earlier comments may have been taken in the wrong way because of the way I presented them.

The fireplace analogy is meant strictly to convey my understanding of the fact that money in the market is always
at risk. While I HOPE to make money on any given trade, I am fully aware of the fact that it can go against me
and I must be fully aware of that fact and accept it, or stop trading. There's no way to protect my trading money
and NOT put it at risk. To remove it from risk means to stop trading.

That's simply the point my analogy tries to make.

So, to follow the analogy, I'm comfortable leaving a limited amount of my money in a fireplace.


Though I'm interested to follow what happens in the penny stocks market, I state again, I'm not going to
play in that market. I do not believe you will see me logging any trades involving penny stocks. That market
is just too volatile, too unpredictable, and too risky for my tastes. But it's fun to watch, like watching accidents
happening in slow motion.


I am looking into other brokerages to reduce my fees. I am aware that by the standards of (I'd guess nearly all) other traders, I'm undercapitalized and reducing my fees would help out substantially. In my A account, right now I have to make 0.8 percent just to cover my fees, while for my B account I only have to make 0.18 percent to cover those fees,
but after I exhaust my supply of reduced fee trades, I'll have to make more to cover the fees.

So yes, going to another brokerage is definitely high on my list of priorities. At least for one account, the A account.

I'll likely let my B account stay where it is at least for the time being. I don't really want to sever my ties with Vanguard,
as I've done OK with their mutual funds in the days prior to deciding to actively trade.

Do I really have a gambler's mentality? Well, I have enjoyed some gambling on rare occasions and have had some
very successful (but not common) good runs at a Roulette wheel.

But I consider the stock market to be a totally different animal. It's not governed by anything as simple as a few
well defined rules of probability as any given game of chance.

I do not believe in just picking a stock and throwing money at it. I look for SOMETHING that gives me an indicator as to what may happen to it in the near future. Such as a good (or bad) earnings report or news about it. The problem there is that by the time I have read it, odds are that others have also read it and have made their moves first. It's hard to make money on a stock that has already hit its short term peak for the day and is now on the decline. Unless I felt brave enough to short it, and that worked out. But I see shorting as being very risky even in the best of times.


I realize that there is no quick and easy way to learn market behavior and certainly no way to become a great trader
overnight. I simply hope to be able to learn these things quickly enough that I have a hope of NOT watching my
trade fund slowly (or quickly) dwindle to nothing before I've acquired a useful amount of that knowledge and insight.

I get the distinct impression that becoming a successful trader is like learning to be a good dancer: You can't do
either one by reading books. Oh, educating yourself on how the market works will certainly involve reading and learning, but book learning only goes so far. I'll have to develop judgement, and a "feel" for it based on (presumably) experience, as I acquire it.


Right now the biggest single actual stock-related question I have to judge on is this: What will really happen to SEAS? is it going to bounce back and pay me, or is it going to slowly glide down into the gutter and take my money along with it unless I cut the rope now?

My belief is that it's going to recover. The company has announced plans to improve the very situations they've come under criticism for and that can certainly help matters. They're profitable and the company is healthy, but they have
lost market share to other attractions. Can they reinvent themselves to gain some back? Can't tell from here.

My gut says, stay in and ride it out as per my initial plans. I have no news or information that says this is the wrong thing to do.

Tomorrow's activity with my smaller (A) account has not yet been planned out. I'm going to now spend the evening
reading the news and try to get a feel for what tomorrow may bring.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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I spent some time checking out news and trying to estimate what tomorrow will bring, but I also spent some time investigating various technical indicators via investopedia.

This brings me to my question: In YOUR experience, what technical indicators do you find to be most useful when looking for potential winners? Assuming you've "been there, done that", and have found indicators that really do help
you to pick winners, which of those indicators are your favorites?


I'm going to set up some custom layouts in TC2000 that incorporate any and every indicator that is recommenced, and
see for myself how they work. While I'm not confident that technicals can predict human behavior, I am certainly willing to give the subject some study. I will put forth the effort needed to educate myself with the aim of becoming a more successful trader.


My IDEAL situation, my GOAL, is to be able to trade for a good living. To me that would be ideal. What makes it (potentially) ideal for me is that the potential exists for me to make money strictly by my own wits. Not having to report for a job, not having to sell a product or service. And not having ANYONE standing between myself and the potential monetary rewards that would come by making the right decisions more often than the wrong ones.

That's the appeal of it. I succeed (or fail) by my own judgements and actions alone.

My second choice would be to pursue my own personal business of building custom designed guitars. I do that,
as a hobby. But there's not enough money in it for me to "go pro" with it although I do offer a professional grade,
high end, boutique level of custom guitar. I could not possibly survive on that as a business, though. At best it is
simply a hobby that manages to pay its expenses, at this point in time. The economy is not good enough to support
such a luxury market as custom built guitars.

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 Itchymoku 
Philadelphia
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
I spent some time checking out news and trying to estimate what tomorrow will bring, but I also spent some time investigating various technical indicators via investopedia.

This brings me to my question: In YOUR experience, what technical indicators do you find to be most useful when looking for potential winners? Assuming you've "been there, done that", and have found indicators that really do help
you to pick winners, which of those indicators are your favorites?


I'm going to set up some custom layouts in TC2000 that incorporate any and every indicator that is recommenced, and
see for myself how they work. While I'm not confident that technicals can predict human behavior, I am certainly willing to give the subject some study. I will put forth the effort needed to educate myself with the aim of becoming a more successful trader.


My IDEAL situation, my GOAL, is to be able to trade for a good living. To me that would be ideal. What makes it (potentially) ideal for me is that the potential exists for me to make money strictly by my own wits. Not having to report for a job, not having to sell a product or service. And not having ANYONE standing between myself and the potential monetary rewards that would come by making the right decisions more often than the wrong ones.

That's the appeal of it. I succeed (or fail) by my own judgements and actions alone.

My second choice would be to pursue my own personal business of building custom designed guitars. I do that,
as a hobby. But there's not enough money in it for me to "go pro" with it although I do offer a professional grade,
high end, boutique level of custom guitar. I could not possibly survive on that as a business, though. At best it is
simply a hobby that manages to pay its expenses, at this point in time. The economy is not good enough to support
such a luxury market as custom built guitars.


CONTEXT is king. You're better off if you focus more on things like multi-time frame analysis, how other instruments compare with the instrument you're trading, support and resistance areas, volume, money management, and simply just the ability to identify if a the market is trending or ranging. There are algorithms out there that constantly test out different indicators and if there is an edge they will exploit that edge to the point that the indicator simply doesn't consistently out preform any other indicator.

Good luck my friend, where there's a will there's a way

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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  #63 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

I've decided to adopt a less aggressive style for the time being. I have given up on (for now) the idea that I have to go in, make a few percentage points, and get out all in the same day.

Looking at the charts for the various stocks I've bought and sold since I started, I've given up opportunities to make money on
nearly every one of them. They've ALL been significantly higher since I bought and sold them.


I've been lucky a few times but I can't count on that.

So I bought into a gold stock (IAG) at 3.96 and set a 60 day GTC limit order to sell it at 4.10.

I might see 4.10 in a few days. I might not. But I expect it to hit 4.10 (or at least 4.08, at which I make 3 percent)
before the order runs out.


I'll take this lower, slower approach while I watch and learn. It also means that until I cash out of either of my existing
positions, I'm done with active trading. I don't have a THIRD account to put into play.

Well, actually I do have a little bit left over in one account. But it's not enough to put into play. I'd have to make
something like 10 percent to cover the fees if I used it.

That happened because I under-bought SEAS. I fumbled the calculator and entered the wrong number of shares.

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  #64 (permalink)
 tturner86 
Elite Member
Portland, Oregon
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Life has thrown a curve ball at me.

I'm now unemployed, but actually quite happy about it, at least at this point.

So, I decided that it was time to move my schedule up for trading.

I have two accounts I can trade off of. The second one, which is larger by several times than the first one,
has been held in reserve and I did not intend to start actively trading with it yet.

So, I compromised: I'll trade with it, but ONLY use it to buy stocks that I do NOT expect to make good money off of
on a one day time scale. This is for longer term investments.

I watched Sea World stock (SEAS) get hammered on Tuesday. It dropped a third of its value.

But, I believed, and still believe, that it took more of a hit than it deserved and that it will recover much of its lost
value, in part because the company is still healthy and has announced plans to improve the situations that have
been the subject of some criticism levelled at the company.

So, I bought into SEAS at the bargain price of $18.90/share, 385 shares. It did drop even farther, actually breaking
below 18/share briefly, but that's OK and I actually expected that that could happen.

Today it recovered substantially off its low point but it's not back up to my buy price. It was up 66 cents/share today.

Of course in this game you can never be REALLY sure what will happen, but I am as cautiously optimistic about this
giving me a very worthwhile profit in the near term (a few weeks) as I have ever been about any stock yet.

My investment in this stock in my "B" account stands at 7276.5 dollars.

I have a limit order in place for 22 dollars a share. I think that's VERY conservative and it will go substantially higher than that.

At a price of 22 per share, it'll be worth $8470 to me, for a profit of $1179.50 after paying commissions.

In actuality, if it passes 21 per share, I will set a stop at 20.50 and if it pushes up another 50 cents, I'll reset the stop
to 21 and reset my limit order higher by a dollar. And continue the process until the stop triggers.

I don't actually see any reason why this can't eventually go back to its pre-crash price. Call it 30 bucks a share.

At 30 bucks a share, that would net me $3859.50. I would really like to see that but of course there are no guarantees.

Oh, this is interesting:

I've signed up for MomentumJunkie alerts.

I've only received a few of them and have not yet acted on any alert they've sent me but I have watched their
recommendations.

So far, every one of them has done amazing things. If their track record continues to turn in the same kind
of performance for the next several episodes, I'll take the risk.

Yesterday's tip was CJTF which spiked over 100 percent during the day, well after I got the email.

I'm quite aware that any such tips as that would be a "pump and dump" sort of deal, but that's OK if you
get out before the big dump comes along, isn't it?

I'm inclined to sell while the stock is still on the upswing. That's my cautious nature at work.


So from now on, I'll have the option of journalling both my "A" and "B" accounts, allowing me to make up to four
trades per week. The "A" account is unrestricted but smaller in value, and to be honest about it, the larger "B"
account is a retirement account. If I cash out of that account, I may have to pay a penalty, but if that's what
I have to do in order to keep the bills paid without a job, then so be it.

I had intended that eventually I would be able to derive an income from trading. Now it seems that I have to at
least try to use my trading to supplement my income a lot earlier than I expected. I'm not sure that I'm ready yet
but it's kind of a "Flap the wings or go splat" situation, or at least, not very far from it.

In total my tradable accounts are worth about 10K at the moment. I can trade (without violating Rule T) as much
as 14 times in 4 weeks and if I can just pull out 1 percent off of each transaction (averaged) then I could cover my
basic expenses and a little more. Which I'd leave in the accounts and let the accounts grow.

But even asking for a consistent 1 percent is a bit optimistic. I'm sure everybody reading this knows that you can
not expect to always pick a winner no matter how carefully you research it and plan it out.





I expect

How you doing on SEAS? Currently 19.05.

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  #65 (permalink)
Limitless100
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Carrerain4 View Post
I've decided to adopt a less aggressive style for the time being. I have given up on (for now) the idea that I have to go in, make a few percentage points, and get out all in the same day.

Looking at the charts for the various stocks I've bought and sold since I started, I've given up opportunities to make money on
nearly every one of them. They've ALL been significantly higher since I bought and sold them.

Be sure you don't change a potentially profitable strategy due to hindsight. The charts you were looking at may have showed you money left on the table simply because of the market we are in right now. If you were profiting on shorting time frame trades, for whatever reason, and decided to change around your style because you were "leaving money on the table," it could turn around to bite you in the ass due to wrongly assessing a situation. Yes, in the specific situations you viewed, you may have made some more money if you held, but will it statistically always prove to be true? Also, you have to ensure your risk parameters are in check before running a new strategy. Expanding your time horizon can be great if it's what you like, but, you will now be more exposed to a greater possibility of unforeseen drastic swings brought about for whatever reason (geo political, international, terror, war, oil, news, etc.)


Carrerain4 View Post
I've been lucky a few times but I can't count on that.

So I bought into a gold stock (IAG) at 3.96 and set a 60 day GTC limit order to sell it at 4.10.

I might see 4.10 in a few days. I might not. But I expect it to hit 4.10 (or at least 4.08, at which I make 3 percent)
before the order runs out.

Where will you be wrong on this call?


Carrerain4 View Post
I'll take this lower, slower approach while I watch and learn. It also means that until I cash out of either of my existing
positions, I'm done with active trading. I don't have a THIRD account to put into play.

Well, actually I do have a little bit left over in one account. But it's not enough to put into play. I'd have to make
something like 10 percent to cover the fees if I used it.

That happened because I under-bought SEAS. I fumbled the calculator and entered the wrong number of shares.


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  #66 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Limitless100 View Post
Replied above

Please do not do that. Inline replies break a lot of things.

You can use multiple quote blocks if you want the same style, otherwise just hit quote and type your reply at the bottom.

Mike

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  #67 (permalink)
Carrerain4
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I've decided to slow things down because I need to control my impatience. That doesn't mean that I won't sell at a 3 percent gain because I think it might go higher, but it does mean that I'm not PLANNING on being in and out of a stock in 10 minutes flat.

Will this be a better approach for me? Time will tell. I THINK it will be.

As I write this, I could sell IAG for 4.04 and take 8 cents a share and thus get my 2 percent (before fees)
that I'd be happy to get consistently, BUT I believe that it has room to grow.

And as I write THIS, it's up to 4.06 a share. I am tempted to take the modest profit and run but I made
a plan and intend to stick with it. I think that it will hit 4.10 or at least 4.08 in the next day.

This is a test for my ability to be patient. Since I started writing this litte rant, IAG has hit 4.07 and retreated to 4.06,
and I could simply sell and take a modest profit right now. But as I said, I intend to stick with my plan because
I really believe that my goal is not only within reach, but the way things are acting I might even see them TODAY
rather than tomorrow. It's been pretty active and the upward trend is quite nice.

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Limitless100
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Big Mike View Post
Please do not do that. Inline replies break a lot of things.

You can use multiple quote blocks if you want the same style, otherwise just hit quote and type your reply at the bottom.

Mike

Okay I will use multiple quote blocks sorry.

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  #69 (permalink)
Limitless100
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Carrerain4 View Post
I've decided to slow things down because I need to control my impatience. That doesn't mean that I won't sell at a 3 percent gain because I think it might go higher, but it does mean that I'm not PLANNING on being in and out of a stock in 10 minutes flat.

Will this be a better approach for me? Time will tell. I THINK it will be.

As I write this, I could sell IAG for 4.04 and take 8 cents a share and thus get my 2 percent (before fees)
that I'd be happy to get consistently, BUT I believe that it has room to grow.

And as I write THIS, it's up to 4.06 a share. I am tempted to take the modest profit and run but I made
a plan and intend to stick with it. I think that it will hit 4.10 or at least 4.08 in the next day.

This is a test for my ability to be patient. Since I started writing this litte rant, IAG has hit 4.07 and retreated to 4.06,
and I could simply sell and take a modest profit right now. But as I said, I intend to stick with my plan because
I really believe that my goal is not only within reach, but the way things are acting I might even see them TODAY
rather than tomorrow. It's been pretty active and the upward trend is quite nice.

I may have missed this in an earlier post. But what is your reasoning for the 4.08/4.10 price?

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  #70 (permalink)
Carrerain4
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Simply because it meets my desires for gain percentages. I'm not greedy and will be happy to achieve 2 percent after fees and commissions, any time. At 4.08 I'll get my 2 percent plus, and if it goes up another 2 cents, then I'm around 3.5 percent before fees. I consider this to b a realistic enough goal for the short term and if I get it, I'll be happy to take it.

I'm not trying for multiple percentages in stocks that probably don't have that gain potential in them. But looking at recent daily performance for this stock, I can see it. Particularly with the recent good news that was released about IAG.

Plus, it's a gold stock. I expect gold prices to rise, if not today, then soon.

And I have personal knowledge of the company. I've done subcontractor work for them. But they've never given
me any information that might be construed to be insider information even by the broadest definition.

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 deaddog 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Simply because it meets my desires for gain percentages. I'm not greedy and will be happy to achieve 2 percent after fees and commissions, any time. At 4.08 I'll get my 2 percent plus, and if it goes up another 2 cents, then I'm around 3.5 percent before fees. I consider this to b a realistic enough goal for the short term and if I get it, I'll be happy to take it.

I'm not trying for multiple percentages in stocks that probably don't have that gain potential in them. But looking at recent daily performance for this stock, I can see it. Particularly with the recent good news that was released about IAG.

Plus, it's a gold stock. I expect gold prices to rise, if not today, then soon.

And I have personal knowledge of the company. I've done subcontractor work for them. But they've never given
me any information that might be construed to be insider information even by the broadest definition.

Does your plan have an exit strategy if the price falls?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #72 (permalink)
Carrerain4
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Yes, I do. Stop loss at -1 percent.

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  #73 (permalink)
Limitless100
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Carrerain4 View Post
Simply because it meets my desires for gain percentages. I'm not greedy and will be happy to achieve 2 percent after fees and commissions, any time. At 4.08 I'll get my 2 percent plus, and if it goes up another 2 cents, then I'm around 3.5 percent before fees. I consider this to b a realistic enough goal for the short term and if I get it, I'll be happy to take it.

I'm not trying for multiple percentages in stocks that probably don't have that gain potential in them. But looking at recent daily performance for this stock, I can see it. Particularly with the recent good news that was released about IAG.

Plus, it's a gold stock. I expect gold prices to rise, if not today, then soon.

And I have personal knowledge of the company. I've done subcontractor work for them. But they've never given
me any information that might be construed to be insider information even by the broadest definition.

In my personal opinion, along with the collective opinion of many professionals I have studied, I don't feel that setting exit strategies by profit level is the best way to go about things. You say that your exit strategy is based off of a profit level of X%. The market doesn't care about how much YOU are making in a trade. Similar to your stop loss, set at a loss of 1%. Again, the market doesn't care when you lost X%. Instead of setting targets like this, maybe you could find a way to set targets/stops based off of your original hypothesis on the stock. For ex. I am buying at 3.10 because I have determined that blah blah blah will bring the price to 3.25 within the next months because of blah blah, also, my stop price will be set at 3.02 because at that point, I accept that I am simply wrong in my original idea.


Carrerain4 View Post
Yes, I do. Stop loss at -1 percent.


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  #74 (permalink)
Carrerain4
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I'm kind of doing just that. For IAG, it just works out that 1 percent is about all I would want to give up in the hopes of a bounce. It's in the 4 dollars per share range so 1 percent is only about 4 cents a share.


My stop loss is proportionately larger with SEAS, which is currently around 19 a share. Since I fully expect it to make a good and profitable recovery in the reasonably near future, I'm actually willing to accept a larger drop in value (bottoming) without jumping out of it. I have more confidence in SEAS giving me 10 percent than I do in IAG giving me 10 percent.

So I guess you could say that my stop loss is more generous if I have greater expectations out of the stock.

I have no idea how wise that decision is as of yet.

Remember, I'm still quite new to this so my strategies and decisions are likely to be subject to many upcoming
changes as I find what works for me and what works against me.


I'm in IAG overnight, at least. It will be interesting to see how it goes tomorrow. I have observed that it generally
moves a fair amount between one day and the next.


This is a good time for me to ask a question, one that any person reading may answer if he chooses:

Are the bulk of your trades intended to be executed within a single day, or on a time scale of days, weeks,
or longer?

I had originally planned "day trades only" but that strategy is already being revised. I've been in SEAS for several
days and may be in it for weeks or months to come yet.

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 Big Mike 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Yes, I do. Stop loss at -1 percent.

Why 1 percent? An arbitrary figure like that will yield arbitrary results, much like flipping a coin to enter a trade - there is no edge.

You need a very clear reason for entering the trade at the price you did, you need a clear exit and a clear stop, both determined prior to the entry and calculated based on price action -- not a static figure like '1%' or '10 ticks' etc.

Mike

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  #76 (permalink)
Carrerain4
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I don't actually have a set entry point. I don't think I can COMMAND a stock to drop ten points so that I can buy into it.

My entry point consists of me looking at current prices, recent price history, and deciding for myself if I think that the
stock will move upwards by a sufficient amount, and quickly enough, to be worth my effort.

This does not mean that I am always successful in my judgements.

I'm not sure I really understand the comment about picking your entry point. All I understand there is the simple
principle of buying low and selling high.

There are stocks that I would believe will drop to a lower value and create a good point of entry, but I can't really
name any that I've found yet that are so consistent in their behavior that I'd bother to mention them by name.

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  #77 (permalink)
 deaddog 
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Carrerain4 View Post

This is a good time for me to ask a question, one that any person reading may answer if he chooses:

Are the bulk of your trades intended to be executed within a single day, or on a time scale of days, weeks,
or longer?

I had originally planned "day trades only" but that strategy is already being revised. I've been in SEAS for several
days and may be in it for weeks or months to come yet.

The majority of my trades are swing trades based on price action on a daily chart.

I read somewhere that swing trading was too slow for the day traders and too fast for the institutions.

If I have a day trade itís because I guessed wrong about the direction the market would move and my stop got hit.

I trade off the daily charts because I have all evening to set up my trades. I place orders, usually stop limit orders with an attached bracket order for my exits, before the market opens. I then have the rest of the day to do what ever I want.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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Carrerain4
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Funny story: My brokerage made an "error" when setting up one of my accounts. It was to fix a problem I had in
configuring that account when I changed it over to a brokerage account.

I ended up with two money market accounts and my money in the wrong one. When they went to fix it,
rather than transfer 7747 dollars into the correct account, somebody fat-fingered their way into making a
SHORT SELL in a mutual fund in the amount of 7747 shares!

I can't short sell off this account. Not approved for margin.

So this morning my indicated balance is about -236,000 dollars!


It's being corrected.


I hope.

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  #79 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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What about your positions that you had open?

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  #80 (permalink)
Carrerain4
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They're still open. For however long it takes to achieve my profit goals, unless they trigger my stop losses first.

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  #81 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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Carrerain4 View Post
They're still open. For however long it takes to achieve my profit goals, unless they trigger my stop losses first.

Didn't know if the account having a 'negative' balance would cause them to close your positions.

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 shodson 
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Carrerain4 View Post
I'm kind of doing just that. For IAG, it just works out that 1 percent is about all I would want to give up in the hopes of a bounce. It's in the 4 dollars per share range so 1 percent is only about 4 cents a share.

You should be commended for wanting to limit your risk to 1%. It is obvious you are trying to be careful to stay in the game if you start taking on a string of losses.

Might I recommend, however, a different approach to achieving the same risk controls?

Instead of saying "if the stock goes down 1% I'm out" you might want to pick a price level, like somewhere you think that price has support/resistance. Then determine how far the stock has to move to get to that "get out" position. Then SIZE your position such that if that level is reached then you take a 1% loss in your account.

For example, let's say stock ABC is 95.00 and you want to go long, but you see support at 90.00 and if it gets below that level you for sure need to get out of the stock. So your risk is $5 per share (95-90). Then let's say you have a $10,000 account. Then you take that $5 risk and determine how many shares to buy such that the $5 risk = 1% of your account.

1% risk = 0.01 * 10,000 = $100

$100 risk / $5 risk/share = 20 shares

So you would buy 20 shares at $95, so your cash outlay for this trade is $1,800. with a stop loss at $90. So you've sized you account such that your risk is 1% of your account and the risk level is based on the way you are reading the market, not some arbitrary percent-of-price number.

If the stock starts to move in your favor you can move, or "trail" your stop higher to keep that $5 from the highest high in the trade so far. If the stock gets to $100, now your stop is at $95 so the worse thing that can happen is you break even. At that point you have a stock with momentum working in your favor, so maybe you add to your position at that point, 20 more shares @ 100, stop at 95. You now have a position twice as large and at worse you just lose 1%, just like at the beginning of the trade.

The good news is that you still have $8200 of cash in your account to use for other trades. If you take care to not pick other instruments that are too correlated, pick some longs and shorts, you can put together a nice little diversified and hedged swing trading portfolio.

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  #83 (permalink)
 shodson 
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BTW, I like Carrerra's too. Attached is a picture of me and my dad's 1976 911S, Targa top. He's had the car for over 30 years and has most of the stock parts and interior, besides the stereo. It was in disrepair for a few years because my dad couldn't drive it anymore (Parkinsons disease, DMV took his license) and it just sat and rot in his garage. He never let anybody else drive it so we never bothered to think how bad it was to just let it sit there and deteriorate. But once he became incapacitated we put it in the shop, got it refurbished, and got it running again. My sister has it now, but I drove it this winter for a few months and would take my dad out in it for drives every now and then, with the top off, turn up his favorite jazz station, and take him on drives down PCH to try and help him feel "normal" again.

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Carrerain4
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Thanks, I like your approach to risk control by sizing the position to match.

BUT, at this point in the game I simply don't have enough money available for trading to really be able to make
good use of that strategy. Between my two accounts I've got only about 10K to play with, and about 80 percent
of that is in my IRA account's brokerage, so unless I want to pay penalties, any money I make in that account
has to STAY in that account. My objective is simply to grow that account faster than if I had left it in a mutual fund,
and maybe I'll be able to do that.

But the smaller account is REALLY small, only about 2000 dollars, and with an account that small I can't really afford
to do anything with it BUT put it all into play on any given trade. In this brokerage, a few trades from now I run out of discounted commissions and it will then cost me 20 dollars to buy and sell, which is a full 1 percent at 2000 dollars.

Splitting that account to make two trades will at that point mean it will cost me 40 dollars just to trade.

So until I make that account larger, whether by depositing to it or transferring from another account, I don't feel that
I have the option of sizing my trades based on potential losses as you described.

I think I will be able to start doing that when and if I can get the account above 10,000 dollars, which may take a while.


Particularly when it appears that I have changed my strategy from day trading to swing trading, at least for now.

I'm not thinking in terms of "gotta get out by 4 PM" anymore.

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  #85 (permalink)
 josh 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Thanks, I like your approach to risk control by sizing the position to match.

BUT, at this point in the game I simply don't have enough money available for trading to really be able to make
good use of that strategy.

It's called fixed fractional sizing, and doesn't require any more trades than normal to execute. It is very simple:

- define your risk as a percentage of your capital. For example, 3%. Convert that to dollars (3% of $2000 is $90)
- subtract an average commission to get in and out, say $5 per side. Total risk is now $80.
- using a price-based stop, determine how far the stock will go against you before you exit the trade (for example, maybe it's $0.50 for a stock)
- Determine how many shares you can purchase by dividing total risk $80 by $0.50, and you arrive at 160 shares. That is your size.

It is a way to size such that you are consistent with how much of your capital you risk. Just making sure you're aware that it has nothing to do with scaling in or out of a trade, it's simply a way to size your position, and uses the equivalent commissions and fees that any trade does.

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 deaddog 
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Carrerain4 View Post
In this brokerage, a few trades from now I run out of discounted commissions and it will then cost me 20 dollars to buy and sell, which is a full 1 percent at 2000 dollars.

Why not change brokers?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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Carrerain4
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In time, I'll change brokers. At least for the "day trading" account. I'll keep the IRA account where it is as it will not be
put into play quite so often.

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Limitless100
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josh View Post
It's called fixed fractional sizing, and doesn't require any more trades than normal to execute. It is very simple:

- define your risk as a percentage of your capital. For example, 3%. Convert that to dollars (3% of $2000 is $90)
- subtract an average commission to get in and out, say $5 per side. Total risk is now $80.
- using a price-based stop, determine how far the stock will go against you before you exit the trade (for example, maybe it's $0.50 for a stock)
- Determine how many shares you can purchase by dividing total risk $80 by $0.50, and you arrive at 160 shares. That is your size.

It is a way to size such that you are consistent with how much of your capital you risk. Just making sure you're aware that it has nothing to do with scaling in or out of a trade, it's simply a way to size your position, and uses the equivalent commissions and fees that any trade does.

Look at this again @Carrerain4
They bring up a good point/strat.

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  #89 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
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BTW, I like Carrerra's too. Attached is a picture of me and my dad's 1976 911S, Targa top. He's had the car for over 30 years and has most of the stock parts and interior, besides the stereo. It was in disrepair for a few years because my dad couldn't drive it anymore (Parkinsons disease, DMV took his license) and it just sat and rot in his garage. He never let anybody else drive it so we never bothered to think how bad it was to just let it sit there and deteriorate. But once he became incapacitated we put it in the shop, got it refurbished, and got it running again. My sister has it now, but I drove it this winter for a few months and would take my dad out in it for drives every now and then, with the top off, turn up his favorite jazz station, and take him on drives down PCH to try and help him feel "normal" again.

caiifornication....

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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Today my automatic execution at 4.08 for IAG kicked in and netted me about 2.7 percent profit after expenses.

I'll take that profit percentage every time!

It happened while I was out taking care of some business in town so I was not nursing the computer at the moment.

The absolute peak for it today was 4.10 and I DID say that I think it would hit 4.10 but I opted for a more conservative
target simply because I'm rather conservative. It only spent about 3 minutes at or above 4.08 today so the window
of opportunity for making more than 4.08 was VERY brief and there is no guarantee that my brokerage could have
executed the trade at 4.10 before the opportunity was gone.

SEAS spent most of the day above my buy price of 18.89, which I was happy to see. Barring any unfortunate news, I think that the long climb up toward my target price has begun.

But there WAS news. Some ambulance chasers have announced that they want to investigate the company for possible violations of certain securities laws. The reason: They want to go after SeaWorld to recoup lost stock value on behalf of their investors who held the stock prior to the date of the crash. Which is absurd, as the nature of the stock market is that prices will rise, and prices will fall, and that's just how the game works. If you aren't satisfied with that, stay home and play video games. But these clowns see it as just another way to legally steal money from a company.


Other news: SeaWorld has announced that it will be making changes to the killer whale tanks at its parks, by making
them larger. (And probably other upgrades as well.)

And some animal rights whacktivists are after the company. No doubt it's the same sort of whacktivist that is opposed
to the keeping of dogs and cats as pets.

I don't think any of this is going to significantly affect the recovery of the stock price.

If I'm wrong, my stop will kick in and that'll be that.

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 tturner86 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Today my automatic execution at 4.08 for IAG kicked in and netted me about 2.7 percent profit after expenses.

I'll take that profit percentage every time!

It happened while I was out taking care of some business in town so I was not nursing the computer at the moment.

The absolute peak for it today was 4.10 and I DID say that I think it would hit 4.10 but I opted for a more conservative
target simply because I'm rather conservative. It only spent about 3 minutes at or above 4.08 today so the window
of opportunity for making more than 4.08 was VERY brief and there is no guarantee that my brokerage could have
executed the trade at 4.10 before the opportunity was gone.

SEAS spent most of the day above my buy price of 18.89, which I was happy to see. Barring any unfortunate news, I think that the long climb up toward my target price has begun.

But there WAS news. Some ambulance chasers have announced that they want to investigate the company for possible violations of certain securities laws. The reason: They want to go after SeaWorld to recoup lost stock value on behalf of their investors who held the stock prior to the date of the crash. Which is absurd, as the nature of the stock market is that prices will rise, and prices will fall, and that's just how the game works. If you aren't satisfied with that, stay home and play video games. But these clowns see it as just another way to legally steal money from a company.


Other news: SeaWorld has announced that it will be making changes to the killer whale tanks at its parks, by making
them larger. (And probably other upgrades as well.)

And some animal rights whacktivists are after the company. No doubt it's the same sort of whacktivist that is opposed
to the keeping of dogs and cats as pets.

I don't think any of this is going to significantly affect the recovery of the stock price.

If I'm wrong, my stop will kick in and that'll be that.

Have you watched Blackfish?

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  #92 (permalink)
Carrerain4
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Yes, I've seen parts of it. It's a hit piece, carefully constructed by antis to paint the company in a bad light.

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 tturner86 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Yes, I've seen parts of it. It's a hit piece, carefully constructed by antis to paint the company in a bad light.

As an investor in SEAS I suggest watching the whole thing.

SEAS has made mistakes and they will have to change and evolve to survive.

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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I thought I would give you a chart reading for SEAS



this is just an example of what happens to a chart when a stock reaches an end of a run

see the outer 2 circles....this is what normally happens when a stock price tends to gravitate towards the 20day moving average....

the center circle is acting much like SEAS is doing right now...it is going sideways with no sign of reaching up to the 20dayMA...I call this a resting position...it is tough to tell the future direction just look at this action.

Note the look of the MACD and BBWidth on May 19....see how they turn away from each other....that is the sign the drop is over...

Now here is SEAS





See how the share price looks like it was in BAC in the center circle...Now the shape of the BBwidth and MACD is hopeful as they look like they will reverse direction....that is why in a previous post I said that there is a "chance" that you might reach your target of $22/share. And that chance still exists frankly but it is far from a done-deal.

The question is though...is a really good chance....or is it a small chance.

the slow Sto in SEAS is not very promising....you want to see it rise over 30....it is stuck in the mud right now

Here is another chart...



the CMF underlay...though it is really stuck in the mud is actually very slightly on the bullish side as it has risen a bit...it has a long way to go before it is bullish....but at least it is no going deeper.

the RSI is full on BEARISH...it is stuck in that muck and no indication that it wanted to rise above 30....many people think that such a position (oversold) is a BUY but I am not of that opinion....it is down there for a reason and could possibly stay there for months.

The bottom chart is full on BEAR...there is no sign the red line wants to drift back to the green...the Black ADX line is rising meaning what is happening now (bearish) is a strong trend

Here is the last chart



This a pretty bearish chart...look how far the share price is below the clouds.......your target of $22.00 is, so far, below the red cloud edge so with recovery that may be doable but it will be a matter of weeks to get there...not days IMHO.....see the thin red/blue lines so far they are running parallel with red on top....this is neutrally bearish...neutral because they are flat and parallel...bearish because red is on top.

The On Bal volume is and CCI are only mildly bearish at present.

Conclusion

You note in this analysis I only mentioned bullish once whereas I mentioned bearish many many times.

Is there a chance of a rebound the way you want??? Sure...I would put it at 30% or less right now...you will probably know for sure in the next 3-5 days.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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Your technical analysis is way above my current technicals educational level but I understand what you're getting at.

What I'm looking at is more along the lines of the lowest value points as charted from mid day on the 14th to the present time, which shows a 6+ percent gain that's pretty steady.

I do not expect SEAS to recover to its pre-crash valuation for YEARS to come, if ever, but I believe that it can certainly make 20 to 22 dollars in a short enough time frame that I'm willing to wait for it.

The company WILL have to make the right moves in order to restore significant investor confidence but I believe that
the worst is over, stock valuation-wise, and a slow but generally steady recovery has started and will continue.

I simply believe that the drop in price was an over-reaction and people are realizing it.

Word is that PETA is trying to buy stock in the company. Good. I hope they buy lots, in the quest to acquire a controlling
stake in the company. That will only help to boost stock prices.

And, ideally, the company will come up with all the right answers and the company becomes a champion of the
conservation and animal rights movement while also providing highly attractive educational entertainment programs
and activities that make it a prime target for the vacationing crowd.

There IS a possibility that Sea World and PETA can find common ground and make each other happy in the process.
PETA would like for people to be very well aware of (and supportive of) animal rights (although I may disagree with
the idea that animals HAVE any rights) and Sea World could, if they play it smart, become a prominent educational
resource which serves the dual purposes of preserving and protecting sea habitats and animal rights AND entertain
the public.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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I just have one comment:

I appreciate advice and constructive criticism but it has gotten to the point that I feel like I practically have to justify every decision I make to you guys, including (almost) what side of the bed I chose to get out of this morning!

I do not intend for that to continue.

This started as a journal, not an inquisition.

So, either I will stop journaling or the inquisition will stop.

As always, advice and constructive criticism are welcomed but it has gotten entirely out of hand.


Are my decisions good or bad? That is determined when the outcome of a completed trade has been determined.

I've made a few money losers but the truth is that every losing trade seemed like a bad idea when I did it.

I've also hit my winners on several occasions. If I can simply have more good trades than bad ones, I'll advance.


Do YOU make any decisions based on what you believe will happen? Of course you do. But what makes you believe
it? Your technical indicators? Or your knowledge of human nature, the mob instinct, herd mentality, or some other human factor? Or is it random?

NONE of us KNOWS what will happen. I do not believe that you can place all your faith and trust in technical indicators, and I do not believe that you can ever reliably predict human behavior when money is in play.

We are at the mercy of factors we do not fully understand and events we can not completely predict.

This holds true for me and for you.

So ANY trade decision, yours or mine, COULD be questioned until the end of time.

Let's not do that.

If you're planning to pick apart my choices by posting several charts and theories as to why it's not going to work,
do us both a favor and sit down and wait until that feeling passes. I really don't care to have my choices picked at under
a microscope in depth. The outcome will determine if I'm right or wrong, not your charts picked from before I've closed my positions.

I'll post my current trades and the results. Don't try to nit-pick them to death and explain to me how it doesn't
make sense in light of your favorite technical indicators. Frankly I don't particularly care. I'm picking stocks MY way,
for now, and no doubt my methods will evolve with time. The day may come when I base my decisions only on technicals. Or the day may come when I get all my stock tips from the crazy astrologer down the street. Frankly I think both of them can be right and both of them can be wrong.

None of us KNOWS what will happen tomorrow. So let's just accept that fact and watch what happens.



And for those of you who live and die by the technicals, answer me this:

Could you have predicted the 6+ percentage averaged recovery of SEAS over the past week or so, using only your
technical indicators as data sources?

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 tigertrader 
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Carrerain4 View Post
I just have one comment:

I appreciate advice and constructive criticism but it has gotten to the point that I feel like I practically have to justify every decision I make to you guys, including (almost) what side of the bed I chose to get out of this morning!

I do not intend for that to continue.

This started as a journal, not an inquisition.

So, either I will stop journaling or the inquisition will stop.

As always, advice and constructive criticism are welcomed but it has gotten entirely out of hand.


Are my decisions good or bad? That is determined when the outcome of a completed trade has been determined.

I've made a few money losers but the truth is that every losing trade seemed like a bad idea when I did it.

I've also hit my winners on several occasions. If I can simply have more good trades than bad ones, I'll advance.


Do YOU make any decisions based on what you believe will happen? Of course you do. But what makes you believe
it? Your technical indicators? Or your knowledge of human nature, the mob instinct, herd mentality, or some other human factor? Or is it random?

NONE of us KNOWS what will happen. I do not believe that you can place all your faith and trust in technical indicators, and I do not believe that you can ever reliably predict human behavior when money is in play.

We are at the mercy of factors we do not fully understand and events we can not completely predict.

This holds true for me and for you.

So ANY trade decision, yours or mine, COULD be questioned until the end of time.

Let's not do that.

If you're planning to pick apart my choices by posting several charts and theories as to why it's not going to work,
do us both a favor and sit down and wait until that feeling passes. I really don't care to have my choices picked at under
a microscope in depth. The outcome will determine if I'm right or wrong, not your charts picked from before I've closed my positions.

I'll post my current trades and the results. Don't try to nit-pick them to death and explain to me how it doesn't
make sense in light of your favorite technical indicators. Frankly I don't particularly care. I'm picking stocks MY way,
for now, and no doubt my methods will evolve with time. The day may come when I base my decisions only on technicals. Or the day may come when I get all my stock tips from the crazy astrologer down the street. Frankly I think both of them can be right and both of them can be wrong.

None of us KNOWS what will happen tomorrow. So let's just accept that fact and watch what happens.



And for those of you who live and die by the technicals, answer me this:

Could you have predicted the 6+ percentage averaged recovery of SEAS over the past week or so, using only your
technical indicators as data sources?

if you are not here to learn, and if the advice being given to you is going in one ear and out the other. then please tell us why the hell you're here. from what I can tell, your just another clueless newbie , who thinks he knows better than everyone else, & thinks he's going to re-invent the wheel, and turn an undercapitalized account into a fortune. I don't think there is a person on this forum who is interested in hearing you wax on about how much money you're going to make, and you certainly have nothing to offer as far as any fresh insights into trading. so, i for one vote for your abstinence from journaling.

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 Big Mike 
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You have to trade your beliefs.

The issue here is your beliefs don't make sense and aren't grounded in any fact based research, just gut feelings.

You can do what you want, but if you continue down this path you will lose your money.

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Carrerain4 View Post
I just have one comment:

..............

And for those of you who live and die by the technicals, answer me this:

Could you have predicted the 6+ percentage averaged recovery of SEAS over the past week or so, using only your
technical indicators as data sources?

Hmmmm...that was a long one comment

I was not commenting on a 6% gain....that is trivial....you were claiming you will make something like a $4.00 gain on $18.00 or a 22% gain

An I am generously giving you a 30% chance of doing that right now....not only did I give you that but I did not wave my magic hands and say ***poof*** 30%...I went through a rather detailed TA on the subject.

You know very little about trading, this is obvious. Myself, I have been involved in reading charts for 20 years...I retired 10 years ago and it is my sole income...trading based on my ability to read charts...I even journal it with a pretty real portfolio...where I announce my purchases/sales the day before I theoretically execute the trade... I do know what I am talking about.

I think I was the only person to acknowledge that you did have a chance to reach your picked-out-of-the-air goal. This last post showed how it could occur....but it does not have the greatest odds of being successful...did you want me to lie and say it is a good play??? You could lose that 6% gain in a heartbeat trying to make that 22% gain....

As @tigertrader has said...a lot of very experienced people are giving you good advice....you would not get such advice on other websites....but it is starting to wear thin now...

Don't try to educate us...we don't need it.

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