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Newbie seeks new Porsche via day trading. See what happens.

  #61 (permalink)
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

I spent some time checking out news and trying to estimate what tomorrow will bring, but I also spent some time investigating various technical indicators via investopedia.

This brings me to my question: In YOUR experience, what technical indicators do you find to be most useful when looking for potential winners? Assuming you've "been there, done that", and have found indicators that really do help
you to pick winners, which of those indicators are your favorites?


I'm going to set up some custom layouts in TC2000 that incorporate any and every indicator that is recommenced, and
see for myself how they work. While I'm not confident that technicals can predict human behavior, I am certainly willing to give the subject some study. I will put forth the effort needed to educate myself with the aim of becoming a more successful trader.


My IDEAL situation, my GOAL, is to be able to trade for a good living. To me that would be ideal. What makes it (potentially) ideal for me is that the potential exists for me to make money strictly by my own wits. Not having to report for a job, not having to sell a product or service. And not having ANYONE standing between myself and the potential monetary rewards that would come by making the right decisions more often than the wrong ones.

That's the appeal of it. I succeed (or fail) by my own judgements and actions alone.

My second choice would be to pursue my own personal business of building custom designed guitars. I do that,
as a hobby. But there's not enough money in it for me to "go pro" with it although I do offer a professional grade,
high end, boutique level of custom guitar. I could not possibly survive on that as a business, though. At best it is
simply a hobby that manages to pay its expenses, at this point in time. The economy is not good enough to support
such a luxury market as custom built guitars.

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  #62 (permalink)
Philadelphia
 
Experience: None
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Trading: ticker tape
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
I spent some time checking out news and trying to estimate what tomorrow will bring, but I also spent some time investigating various technical indicators via investopedia.

This brings me to my question: In YOUR experience, what technical indicators do you find to be most useful when looking for potential winners? Assuming you've "been there, done that", and have found indicators that really do help
you to pick winners, which of those indicators are your favorites?


I'm going to set up some custom layouts in TC2000 that incorporate any and every indicator that is recommenced, and
see for myself how they work. While I'm not confident that technicals can predict human behavior, I am certainly willing to give the subject some study. I will put forth the effort needed to educate myself with the aim of becoming a more successful trader.


My IDEAL situation, my GOAL, is to be able to trade for a good living. To me that would be ideal. What makes it (potentially) ideal for me is that the potential exists for me to make money strictly by my own wits. Not having to report for a job, not having to sell a product or service. And not having ANYONE standing between myself and the potential monetary rewards that would come by making the right decisions more often than the wrong ones.

That's the appeal of it. I succeed (or fail) by my own judgements and actions alone.

My second choice would be to pursue my own personal business of building custom designed guitars. I do that,
as a hobby. But there's not enough money in it for me to "go pro" with it although I do offer a professional grade,
high end, boutique level of custom guitar. I could not possibly survive on that as a business, though. At best it is
simply a hobby that manages to pay its expenses, at this point in time. The economy is not good enough to support
such a luxury market as custom built guitars.


CONTEXT is king. You're better off if you focus more on things like multi-time frame analysis, how other instruments compare with the instrument you're trading, support and resistance areas, volume, money management, and simply just the ability to identify if a the market is trending or ranging. There are algorithms out there that constantly test out different indicators and if there is an edge they will exploit that edge to the point that the indicator simply doesn't consistently out preform any other indicator.

Good luck my friend, where there's a will there's a way

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.

Last edited by Itchymoku; August 18th, 2014 at 02:52 AM.
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The following 4 users say Thank You to Itchymoku for this post:
 
  #63 (permalink)
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received


I've decided to adopt a less aggressive style for the time being. I have given up on (for now) the idea that I have to go in, make a few percentage points, and get out all in the same day.

Looking at the charts for the various stocks I've bought and sold since I started, I've given up opportunities to make money on
nearly every one of them. They've ALL been significantly higher since I bought and sold them.


I've been lucky a few times but I can't count on that.

So I bought into a gold stock (IAG) at 3.96 and set a 60 day GTC limit order to sell it at 4.10.

I might see 4.10 in a few days. I might not. But I expect it to hit 4.10 (or at least 4.08, at which I make 3 percent)
before the order runs out.


I'll take this lower, slower approach while I watch and learn. It also means that until I cash out of either of my existing
positions, I'm done with active trading. I don't have a THIRD account to put into play.

Well, actually I do have a little bit left over in one account. But it's not enough to put into play. I'd have to make
something like 10 percent to cover the fees if I used it.

That happened because I under-bought SEAS. I fumbled the calculator and entered the wrong number of shares.

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  #64 (permalink)
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Portland, Oregon
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Life has thrown a curve ball at me.

I'm now unemployed, but actually quite happy about it, at least at this point.

So, I decided that it was time to move my schedule up for trading.

I have two accounts I can trade off of. The second one, which is larger by several times than the first one,
has been held in reserve and I did not intend to start actively trading with it yet.

So, I compromised: I'll trade with it, but ONLY use it to buy stocks that I do NOT expect to make good money off of
on a one day time scale. This is for longer term investments.

I watched Sea World stock (SEAS) get hammered on Tuesday. It dropped a third of its value.

But, I believed, and still believe, that it took more of a hit than it deserved and that it will recover much of its lost
value, in part because the company is still healthy and has announced plans to improve the situations that have
been the subject of some criticism levelled at the company.

So, I bought into SEAS at the bargain price of $18.90/share, 385 shares. It did drop even farther, actually breaking
below 18/share briefly, but that's OK and I actually expected that that could happen.

Today it recovered substantially off its low point but it's not back up to my buy price. It was up 66 cents/share today.

Of course in this game you can never be REALLY sure what will happen, but I am as cautiously optimistic about this
giving me a very worthwhile profit in the near term (a few weeks) as I have ever been about any stock yet.

My investment in this stock in my "B" account stands at 7276.5 dollars.

I have a limit order in place for 22 dollars a share. I think that's VERY conservative and it will go substantially higher than that.

At a price of 22 per share, it'll be worth $8470 to me, for a profit of $1179.50 after paying commissions.

In actuality, if it passes 21 per share, I will set a stop at 20.50 and if it pushes up another 50 cents, I'll reset the stop
to 21 and reset my limit order higher by a dollar. And continue the process until the stop triggers.

I don't actually see any reason why this can't eventually go back to its pre-crash price. Call it 30 bucks a share.

At 30 bucks a share, that would net me $3859.50. I would really like to see that but of course there are no guarantees.

Oh, this is interesting:

I've signed up for MomentumJunkie alerts.

I've only received a few of them and have not yet acted on any alert they've sent me but I have watched their
recommendations.

So far, every one of them has done amazing things. If their track record continues to turn in the same kind
of performance for the next several episodes, I'll take the risk.

Yesterday's tip was CJTF which spiked over 100 percent during the day, well after I got the email.

I'm quite aware that any such tips as that would be a "pump and dump" sort of deal, but that's OK if you
get out before the big dump comes along, isn't it?

I'm inclined to sell while the stock is still on the upswing. That's my cautious nature at work.


So from now on, I'll have the option of journalling both my "A" and "B" accounts, allowing me to make up to four
trades per week. The "A" account is unrestricted but smaller in value, and to be honest about it, the larger "B"
account is a retirement account. If I cash out of that account, I may have to pay a penalty, but if that's what
I have to do in order to keep the bills paid without a job, then so be it.

I had intended that eventually I would be able to derive an income from trading. Now it seems that I have to at
least try to use my trading to supplement my income a lot earlier than I expected. I'm not sure that I'm ready yet
but it's kind of a "Flap the wings or go splat" situation, or at least, not very far from it.

In total my tradable accounts are worth about 10K at the moment. I can trade (without violating Rule T) as much
as 14 times in 4 weeks and if I can just pull out 1 percent off of each transaction (averaged) then I could cover my
basic expenses and a little more. Which I'd leave in the accounts and let the accounts grow.

But even asking for a consistent 1 percent is a bit optimistic. I'm sure everybody reading this knows that you can
not expect to always pick a winner no matter how carefully you research it and plan it out.





I expect

How you doing on SEAS? Currently 19.05.

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  #65 (permalink)
New York, New York
 
 
Posts: 97 since May 2014
Thanks: 163 given, 61 received


Carrerain4 View Post
I've decided to adopt a less aggressive style for the time being. I have given up on (for now) the idea that I have to go in, make a few percentage points, and get out all in the same day.

Looking at the charts for the various stocks I've bought and sold since I started, I've given up opportunities to make money on
nearly every one of them. They've ALL been significantly higher since I bought and sold them.

Be sure you don't change a potentially profitable strategy due to hindsight. The charts you were looking at may have showed you money left on the table simply because of the market we are in right now. If you were profiting on shorting time frame trades, for whatever reason, and decided to change around your style because you were "leaving money on the table," it could turn around to bite you in the ass due to wrongly assessing a situation. Yes, in the specific situations you viewed, you may have made some more money if you held, but will it statistically always prove to be true? Also, you have to ensure your risk parameters are in check before running a new strategy. Expanding your time horizon can be great if it's what you like, but, you will now be more exposed to a greater possibility of unforeseen drastic swings brought about for whatever reason (geo political, international, terror, war, oil, news, etc.)


Carrerain4 View Post
I've been lucky a few times but I can't count on that.

So I bought into a gold stock (IAG) at 3.96 and set a 60 day GTC limit order to sell it at 4.10.

I might see 4.10 in a few days. I might not. But I expect it to hit 4.10 (or at least 4.08, at which I make 3 percent)
before the order runs out.

Where will you be wrong on this call?


Carrerain4 View Post
I'll take this lower, slower approach while I watch and learn. It also means that until I cash out of either of my existing
positions, I'm done with active trading. I don't have a THIRD account to put into play.

Well, actually I do have a little bit left over in one account. But it's not enough to put into play. I'd have to make
something like 10 percent to cover the fees if I used it.

That happened because I under-bought SEAS. I fumbled the calculator and entered the wrong number of shares.



Last edited by Limitless100; August 18th, 2014 at 03:23 PM.
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  #66 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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Limitless100 View Post
Replied above

Please do not do that. Inline replies break a lot of things.

You can use multiple quote blocks if you want the same style, otherwise just hit quote and type your reply at the bottom.

Mike

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  #67 (permalink)
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

I've decided to slow things down because I need to control my impatience. That doesn't mean that I won't sell at a 3 percent gain because I think it might go higher, but it does mean that I'm not PLANNING on being in and out of a stock in 10 minutes flat.

Will this be a better approach for me? Time will tell. I THINK it will be.

As I write this, I could sell IAG for 4.04 and take 8 cents a share and thus get my 2 percent (before fees)
that I'd be happy to get consistently, BUT I believe that it has room to grow.

And as I write THIS, it's up to 4.06 a share. I am tempted to take the modest profit and run but I made
a plan and intend to stick with it. I think that it will hit 4.10 or at least 4.08 in the next day.

This is a test for my ability to be patient. Since I started writing this litte rant, IAG has hit 4.07 and retreated to 4.06,
and I could simply sell and take a modest profit right now. But as I said, I intend to stick with my plan because
I really believe that my goal is not only within reach, but the way things are acting I might even see them TODAY
rather than tomorrow. It's been pretty active and the upward trend is quite nice.

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  #68 (permalink)
New York, New York
 
 
Posts: 97 since May 2014
Thanks: 163 given, 61 received


Big Mike View Post
Please do not do that. Inline replies break a lot of things.

You can use multiple quote blocks if you want the same style, otherwise just hit quote and type your reply at the bottom.

Mike

Okay I will use multiple quote blocks sorry.

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  #69 (permalink)
New York, New York
 
 
Posts: 97 since May 2014
Thanks: 163 given, 61 received


Carrerain4 View Post
I've decided to slow things down because I need to control my impatience. That doesn't mean that I won't sell at a 3 percent gain because I think it might go higher, but it does mean that I'm not PLANNING on being in and out of a stock in 10 minutes flat.

Will this be a better approach for me? Time will tell. I THINK it will be.

As I write this, I could sell IAG for 4.04 and take 8 cents a share and thus get my 2 percent (before fees)
that I'd be happy to get consistently, BUT I believe that it has room to grow.

And as I write THIS, it's up to 4.06 a share. I am tempted to take the modest profit and run but I made
a plan and intend to stick with it. I think that it will hit 4.10 or at least 4.08 in the next day.

This is a test for my ability to be patient. Since I started writing this litte rant, IAG has hit 4.07 and retreated to 4.06,
and I could simply sell and take a modest profit right now. But as I said, I intend to stick with my plan because
I really believe that my goal is not only within reach, but the way things are acting I might even see them TODAY
rather than tomorrow. It's been pretty active and the upward trend is quite nice.

I may have missed this in an earlier post. But what is your reasoning for the 4.08/4.10 price?

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  #70 (permalink)
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received


Simply because it meets my desires for gain percentages. I'm not greedy and will be happy to achieve 2 percent after fees and commissions, any time. At 4.08 I'll get my 2 percent plus, and if it goes up another 2 cents, then I'm around 3.5 percent before fees. I consider this to b a realistic enough goal for the short term and if I get it, I'll be happy to take it.

I'm not trying for multiple percentages in stocks that probably don't have that gain potential in them. But looking at recent daily performance for this stock, I can see it. Particularly with the recent good news that was released about IAG.

Plus, it's a gold stock. I expect gold prices to rise, if not today, then soon.

And I have personal knowledge of the company. I've done subcontractor work for them. But they've never given
me any information that might be construed to be insider information even by the broadest definition.

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