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Newbie seeks new Porsche via day trading. See what happens.


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Newbie seeks new Porsche via day trading. See what happens.

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  #201 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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Sarasota FL
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
WPCS hit my target price of 1.25 and I sold at that point. (2200 shares) It peaked very shortly thereafter at 1.31 but I got my 7 cents per share and the peak was very brief. I honestly think that if I'd hovered over the button and tried to manually hold out for a better price, I would have had a hard time doing it as I'd be inclined to react to a drop of a few cents with "wait and see" in the hopes that it would later go even higher. And in the end I'd probably not have done as well as just picking a price and letting auto execution get it for me.



Granted, it may limit my ability to extend my profits even higher, but I feel safer by taking a personal sense of excitement
and nervousness out of the equation. Trade without passion. Passion gets you in trouble.


I got 6 percent not counting fees. The new larger fee (20 bucks!) made a noticeable dent but it was still rather profitable.

I've done that a hundred times.... that is, the " 'wait and see' in the hopes that it would later go even higher" thing, which you correctly did not do. It doesn't usually work. You did the right thing, for the right reason. It won't always work out, but you have to be in for the long haul and always bet on the side of the greatest probabilities. Good job.

You're doing extremely well at this point. What you're learning is how to consistently follow a plan and sticking to it. Nothing is more important (well, it helps if your plan is a good one, , but then, sticking to it is how to make it work.)

It's nice reading your journal. Keep plugging. You'll do well if you continue to learn and experiment with what works out for you. Good luck to you.

Bob.

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  #202 (permalink)
 shodson 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Alibaba's upcoming IPO price is set to be between 60 and 66 dollars per share.

Lots of infographics about Alibaba and the IPO


Carrerain4 View Post
No telling what I can actually get it for the moment the shares are open for general sale, but you can bet that I'm going for ramming speed. I'll throw every tradable dollar I have into it. Both accounts, all in.

Uh take it easy, IPOs are volatile, you could win or lose a lot. I've done well holding YHOO since the mid-August breakout as a proxy into the IPO.

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  #203 (permalink)
Carrerain4
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I may commit HALF my account to the Alibaba IPO. Just in case it goes like FB in which case I'll be an investor, rather than a trader.

The thing about FB is that I still don't see that FB has any actual monetary value at all. I'd value it at zero per share.

Alibaba, on the other hand, combines the best attributes of ebay and amazon in one package. It is really an innovative
way for ANYBODY to market their products. Some good thinking went into its creation and I would be very surprised
if it doesn't grow and dominate like Google and Wal-Mart have grown and dominated in their fields. And it is easy to show the cash value that Alibaba represents, unlike the imaginary value of a social networking site like FB. So I do NOT expect Alibaba to follow FB's pattern.

The biggest single technical problem I see with buying Alibaba the moment it goes public is that the pricing is very likely
to change so rapidly that I won't have time to calculate how many shares I can buy within my account limits and then
place the order before the price has changed enough to make that calculation out of date.

I could just place a limit order at, say, 75 per share, but if it goes for 65 at that moment then the 10 per share difference would mean that I'd end up not buying as many shares as possible within my allotted funds.

Even then, if it opens for trading at 81 a share I'd still want to get in on it even though my limit order was too conservative. I might go as high as 100 per share but above that point I'd probably decline to participate.

My current brokerage doesn't give an option to "buy as many shares as will fit within this amount of money". I have to manually calculate it.

I won't be able to buy very many shares with a total account value of just over 10K. But whatever percentage of that
amount I choose to commit to Alibaba shares, I want to actually get that much into it. I'd rather not end up leaving
500 dollars sitting there in my account that's not in play when I intended for it to be in play. That 500 dollars could
be 500 dollars that doesn't end up doubling to 1000 in the first day, for all I know.

My expectations for Alibaba is that the share price will climb at least 50 percent in the first day and double within a week. And who knows? It might double in the first hour for all I know.

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  #204 (permalink)
 rmejia 
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Is your homepage link matthews-guitars you? Beautiful guitars, love the flame tops.


Carrerain4 View Post
The thing about FB is that I still don't see that FB has any actual monetary value at all. I'd value it at zero per share.

Facebook's value comes from its huge user base. Over 1 billion people visit Facebook monthly. That is a massive amount of page views. They get their money selling ads, like Google. They collect a lot of data which they also use and sell. They recently paid 19 billion dollars to buy a chat application. How is a chat app worth 19 billion? It has over 500 million users.

Imagine someone is selling a guitar website with 100 views per month, and another guitar website with 1,000,000 views per month. There is a greater possibility to make money (ads, selling merchandise, etc) from the 1,000,000 views so it is worth more; now imagine 1,000,000,000 views.

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  #205 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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rmejia View Post
Is your homepage link matthews-guitars you? Beautiful guitars, love the flame tops.



Facebook's value comes from its huge user base. Over 1 billion people visit Facebook monthly. That is a massive amount of page views. They get their money selling ads, like Google. They collect a lot of data which they also use and sell. They recently paid 19 billion dollars to buy a chat application. How is a chat app worth 19 billion? It has over 500 million users.

Imagine someone is selling a guitar website with 100 views per month, and another guitar website with 1,000,000 views per month. There is a greater possibility to make money (ads, selling merchandise, etc) from the 1,000,000 views so it is worth more; now imagine 1,000,000,000 views.

Also FB has become more of a utility for the net. A lot of sites rely on FB for login and other features to power their site.

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  #206 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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Well, I'm HIGHLY resistant to advertising, myself. I make aggressive use of ad blockers and customized HOSTS files so I rarely see any advertising in my on-line travels and if I could do the same thing for all other media sources, I would.

Did you know that the current time allocation for television shows is 18 minute of run time and 12 minutes of ad time per half an hour?

Just a couple of years ago it was 20 minutes of run time and 10 minutes of ad time per half an hour.
A few years farther back, it was 22 and 8.

And I thought that was about 8 minutes more ad time than I wanted to see back then. I'd approve 2 minutes per half hour,
just long enough to hit the bathroom and yank the nachos out of the oven. And if that 2 minutes between shows consisted of
noise, static, or a blank screen, it would be fine with me. I detest advertisements on TV and on the internet and I'm not a big fan
of them in print, either.

I've hit the X button on FB's ads so many times that I literally no longer get any ads on my FB page. Not one, not ever.

So my personal estimate of the value of FB would of course be much lower than those who are more tolerant of ads than I am. Which is practically everybody.

Yes, matthews-guitars.com is my website and those are my hand-made guitars. Thank you.

All that being said, IF I was in a position to actually start producing guitars on a consistent basis, I WOULD give serious consideration
to placing ads via Google adsense or Facebook. Their marketplaces are large enough to drum up some serious candidates for my guitar offerings. Although I do not make cheap instruments by any means, I do charge less than the companies that I consider to be my
most capable "competitors", namely Gibson and Paul Reed Smith. And I deliver instruments that can be compared on a level playing field with their top tier products.

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  #207 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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No activity today. But WPCS was my morning pick for another good day. IF I'd bought it, and I was seriously considering it, I'd have bought at 1.24. It hit 1.37 for a net gain of slightly over 10 percent.

I did not buy into it for two reasons: Some of my money is still in unsettled funds, and I would trade with all available
funds by preference rather than split my money up and have to pay multiple transaction fees. And, I'm trying to settle out all my accounts to cash so I can transfer one or both to Tradeking ASAP. It's easier and cheaper to make the transfers when it's just cash moving, rather than trying to move the account while invested in various securities.


But with the full value of that account on tap, I'd be able to use 8000 dollars for that one account and adding 10 percent
to it in a day (800 dollars) would be well worth the 40 dollars in transaction fees. Or even just 5 percent.


My short term plan is to watch WPCS and be alert for another day where big gains seem likely.

The trend for WPCS lately has been decidedly upwards. Since the news on them is that the NASDAQ is now happy with
them for pulling their price up above a dollar a share, there's nothing negative that I can find regarding the company so I believe the upward trend will continue for a while yet.

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  #208 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Carrerain4 View Post

My short term plan is to watch WPCS and be alert for another day where big gains seem likely.

The trend for WPCS lately has been decidedly upwards. Since the news on them is that the NASDAQ is now happy with them for pulling their price up above a dollar a share, there's nothing negative that I can find regarding the company so I believe the upward trend will continue for a while yet.

I would be careful about buying WPCS at this point....It would have been nice if you have done as I suggested and put in a trailing Limit Stop-Loss when it was rising above $1.25....then you could have reaped a really nice gain.

But I would be cautious about re-entering right now...Especially today when it has had that nice jump....look at this chart



see where I have circled prices in the past? This stock has a habit of getting over excited in the past and rising above the upper bollinger band...that thin green line that I point to with the blue arrow.

the price will pull back more than it has already like it has before.



In this second chart you see a resistance that has been breached....but the price has already pulled back below this line. The nature of the chart is such that it will not show this yet unless it drops another cent but it will do so at the end of the day...probably.

It is not a good idea to buy when a stock is just under a resistance....if it rises and CLOSES above that line...that would be good and you would be looking at a further rise to about $1.80....BUT this will only happen if it passes and closes above $1.55....so far today it has tried and failed to stay there.

Just an observation on my part...

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  #209 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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WPCS has been stunning this week. It's hit 1.70 today. In retrospect, I SHOULD have put my settled funds into it,
but I didn't so no need to worry about that.

While it's always possible that today COULD be the last day of a good run, the truth is that nobody really knows that.
You might just as easily point to this week's current performance as evidence of increasing confidence in the company and in the stock and this run may be FAR from over.

Any time I put money into the market, no matter how well reasoned the decision is, the fact is that there's always
an element of risk to it. Even the best long-term gaining stocks can experience a turnaround at any moment.

So if I do put any money into it again, whether it's later today, tomorrow morning, next week, or years from now,
it's always going to be a risk.

My BELIEF is that the ride is far from over. I think that the stock will regain the value it had at the beginning of the year, between 2.50 and 3.25 per share and I think it's going to do that fairly quickly. I see no indicators or news that would prevent that from happening, and the company has taken action to correct the problems that led to their stock dropping below a dollar a share.

There has been no substantial news regarding the company in the last five days.

Its pattern, sudden increases in share volume and wild price action swings, makes me think that a lot of day
and swing traders have turned their attentions to it. And I think the swing traders are the cause of the general upturn in prices while the day traders are responsible for the intraday volatility. Plus I'm sure that there are some who are buying and holding, fully expecting it to appreciate significantly over a longer time frame.

Of course I could be completely wrong but that's what I'm getting from all this.

I think I will be buying into WPCS tomorrow, Thursday, or Friday, whenever I think it's at its new current bottom range.
In order to get my larger volume trades executed (8 grand worth, more or less) I may have to check real-time prices, and if satisfactory, place a MARKET order to buy (all or none) and take the chance that some shares may be bought for a few cents more than others. Limit orders can take a while to fill when you're asking to buy thousands of shares so in this case I accept the calculated risk that comes with a market order. But I'll be watching it like a hawk, and if the price goes above my set limit before the order executes, I'll cancel it.

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  #210 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
WPCS has been stunning this week. It's hit 1.70 today. In retrospect, I SHOULD have put my settled funds into it,
but I didn't so no need to worry about that.

While it's always possible that today COULD be the last day of a good run, the truth is that nobody really knows that.
You might just as easily point to this week's current performance as evidence of increasing confidence in the company and in the stock and this run may be FAR from over.

Any time I put money into the market, no matter how well reasoned the decision is, the fact is that there's always
an element of risk to it. Even the best long-term gaining stocks can experience a turnaround at any moment.

So if I do put any money into it again, whether it's later today, tomorrow morning, next week, or years from now,
it's always going to be a risk.

My BELIEF is that the ride is far from over. I think that the stock will regain the value it had at the beginning of the year, between 2.50 and 3.25 per share and I think it's going to do that fairly quickly. I see no indicators or news that would prevent that from happening, and the company has taken action to correct the problems that led to their stock dropping below a dollar a share.

There has been no substantial news regarding the company in the last five days.

Its pattern, sudden increases in share volume and wild price action swings, makes me think that a lot of day
and swing traders have turned their attentions to it. And I think the swing traders are the cause of the general upturn in prices while the day traders are responsible for the intraday volatility. Plus I'm sure that there are some who are buying and holding, fully expecting it to appreciate significantly over a longer time frame.

Of course I could be completely wrong but that's what I'm getting from all this.

I think I will be buying into WPCS tomorrow, Thursday, or Friday, whenever I think it's at its new current bottom range.
In order to get my larger volume trades executed (8 grand worth, more or less) I may have to check real-time prices, and if satisfactory, place a MARKET order to buy (all or none) and take the chance that some shares may be bought for a few cents more than others. Limit orders can take a while to fill when you're asking to buy thousands of shares so
in this case I accept the calculated risk that comes with a market order. But I'll be watching it like a hawk, and if the price goes above my set limit before the order executes, I'll cancel it.

It has risen again...back to $1.60ish...don't trust me....there is no reason to do so....but be very cautious about getting back into WPCS at this time... it could easily pull back to $1.40-1.45


Quoting 
Traders Buzz: WPCS International Incorporated (NASDAQ:WPCS), Vicon Industries, Inc.(NYSEMKT:VII), Endeavour International Corporation (NYSE:END)
By Marc Nielsen • September 9, 2014 •

Lakeway, NY — (MARKET NEWS CALL) — 9/09/2014— Specialpennystockalert.com, an investment community with a special focus on updating investors with recent news on the U.S. stock market about the small and penny stocks, issues news alert on WPCS International Incorporated (NASDAQ:WPCS), Vicon Industries, Inc.(NYSEMKT:VII), Endeavour International Corporation (NYSE:END).

WPCS International Incorporated (NASDAQ:WPCS)’s stock jumped 1.54% to $1.32. The company on Sept. 4 announced that it has received a letter from NASDAQ, dated Sept. 3, 2014, indicating that WPCS has regained compliance with Listing Rule 5550(a)(2), as the closing bid price of the Company’s common stock has been $1.00 per share or greater for the last 10 consecutive business days. Accordingly, NASDAQ has advised that the matter is now closed.

If this is the "HARD NEWS" you are reading...you are falling for media rag buzz. Nothing has changed in the fundamentals of the company...it still loses money every quarter....in other words...it is being pumped.

You can follow your gut and buy in if you want...perhaps I should have stayed silent. But I would not buy it now...were it me.

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  #211 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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I trust your opinion. If I do buy into it, it will be with a SMALLER amount rather than put the whole 8K into it. Maybe put a quarter of that into it. But with my higher fees now, I really have to think about that.

I may just stay on the sidelines for a while. And maybe not. I have to give it some thought and try to approach this from a rational point of view instead of "Think of how much money I can make if it jumps 20 cents a share tomorrow!".

I don't mind pump and dump schemes as long as I am one of the ones who jump out before the dump happens.

But that's not very predictable, is it?

In the past I've likened the market to gambling. I've realized that actually it's very different from that.

When you gamble, you put your money down and the game plays out and that particular hand, spin, or roll of the dice determines with absolute authority if you have won or lost. You can take your winnings and go home, let it ride in the hopes of a bigger win, or accept your loss. No other options.

In the market, the play isn't over until you decide to cash out. Even if you're down, it MIGHT come back for you,
but then again, it might not.

My mother has a good sized but conservative investment portfolio. In it is one stock that my dad bought years ago
based on local news for a specific company picking up a federal contract. He bought it near the peak it would achieve in that time frame. It then dropped back down to its usual and customary level, about half what he bought it for.

Right now, it's gone up a lot based on a good earnings report and if my mother sold it now, she'd make a profit on it, and a rather decent one, but this is the first time since 2010 that it could be profitable for her.

I am rather frustrated that she has not taken my advice and had her broker sell it, take the profit, and get out of this
particular stock that just sits down around 2.50 per share almost all the time. It doesn't climb or fall with the indexes,
it just sits there.

It's started to go back to its usual and customary levels. If she doesn't dump it fast, it may be years before she can see a chance at making a profit on it.

That sort of thing annoys me. It's why I have far more of the mentality of the short term trader than the long term investor. I want my money to GROW, and quickly. And i want to be free of encumbrances that aren't making me a dime.

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  #212 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


Carrerain4 View Post
I trust your opinion. If I do buy into it, it will be with a SMALLER amount rather than put the whole 8K into it. Maybe put a quarter of that into it. But with my higher fees now, I really have to think about that.

I may just stay on the sidelines for a while. And maybe not. I have to give it some thought and try to approach this from a rational point of view instead of "Think of how much money I can make if it jumps 20 cents a share tomorrow!".

I don't mind pump and dump schemes as long as I am one of the ones who jump out before the dump happens.

But that's not very predictable, is it?

In the past I've likened the market to gambling. I've realized that actually it's very different from that.

When you gamble, you put your money down and the game plays out and that particular hand, spin, or roll of the dice determines with absolute authority if you have won or lost. You can take your winnings and go home, let it ride in the hopes of a bigger win, or accept your loss. No other options.

In the market, the play isn't over until you decide to cash out. Even if you're down, it MIGHT come back for you,
but then again, it might not.

it is up to you, you must make up your own mind. You must also make your own mistakes too and I should not interfere. It is quite apparent that you are comfortable with your own decisions and are not comfortable listening to the advice of others.

And that is probably how you developed your guitar building business. I had a look at your site and am impressed with those demo videos.....wish I could play myself but musically I like Blues and Rock & Roll and sing a little as a hobby. I am sure when you started out making guitars you had your share of nay sayers.

One thing different about this website is that you do not get a bunch of pumpers egging you on to bad trades. There is a lot of good advice here.


Carrerain4 View Post
My mother has a good sized but conservative investment portfolio. In it is one stock that my dad bought years ago based on local news for a specific company picking up a federal contract. He bought it near the peak it would achieve in that time frame. It then dropped back down to its usual and customary level, about half what he bought it for.

Right now, it's gone up a lot based on a good earnings report and if my mother sold it now, she'd make a profit on it, and a rather decent one, but this is the first time since 2010 that it could be profitable for her.

I am rather frustrated that she has not taken my advice and had her broker sell it, take the profit, and get out of this particular stock that just sits down around 2.50 per share almost all the time. It doesn't climb or fall with the indexes, it just sits there.

If your father has passed on (not clear from this post if he is still alive) then I would bet dollars to donuts that her reluctance to sell is because her husband bought the stock and it is an emotional issue with her. Emotion is not often logical but its power is undeniable.

Good luck with your trades

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  #213 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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Be sure, I do listen to advice and I take it into consideration.

But that doesn't always mean that I'm going to follow it.

And I will be quite honest about this part: Right or wrong, good thing or bad, one thing that strongly influences how I decide to take advice is my current track record. Out of 17 logged round trip trades, 14 of them have been profitable to me. That high success rate quite probably IS giving me way more confidence than I'm due. But of the three losers I've had so far, only one of them has occurred in the latter half of the time elapsed since I made my first trade, and I made a fundamental mistake on that one which I still can't believe happened. In that particular case, I made a purchase and the brokerage told me that I'd gotten the stock for a much lower price than I had anticipated getting it for. So with the dramatically reduced apparent cost basis, I sold quickly thinking I'd made a good profit.

in actual fact, I had made a mistake and was looking at a page on the brokerage showing the 20 minute delayed quote,
rather than the real time quote. So...big oops. That cost me a 56 dollar stupidity tax, which, admittedly, is hardly the largest loss I've ever taken but it was the most unnecessary loss I've yet taken.

I freely admit, I could be overconfident. (Seems rather likely, to be honest about it.) I am trying to remind myself of that little factoid every time I even THINK about going to the buy/sell page with my brokerage.

I don't expect every trade to be a winner. Really I don't. But so far my track record is doing nothing to discourage me. I might end up paying for that in a big way. At least I'm being honest with myself. I could very well be overconfident and headed for a bruising lesson. I can't tell you what decisions I'll make tomorrow when the market opens and I get to see what happens in the opening minutes. I hope it turns out to be the correct decision, whatever it turns out to be. I guess we'll know tomorrow evening. Or, maybe, a few days later.

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  #214 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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Short answer: This is apparently a swing trade. I bought in but my price wasn't met today. I believe that'll happen in the next day or couple of days.

I'll give numbers when it's over and done.

Even if they turn out to be embarrassingly bad for me.

No sense in lying, is there?

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  #215 (permalink)
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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Short answer: This is apparently a swing trade. I bought in but my price wasn't met today. I believe that'll happen in the next day or couple of days.

I'll give numbers when it's over and done.

Even if they turn out to be embarrassingly bad for me.

No sense in lying, is there?

Ok, I predicted the pullback to $1.40-1.45 and it got down there for a brief period before rising a bit to close at $1.48...

As for tomorrow, I will offer this look from my perception.




Right now the closing price has fallen back between a stronger resistance a relatively weaker support...the dotted lines represent secondary resistance and support.

It is tough to decide at this point whether the support will stand another attack...but I believe it will....not from this chart but from the following one.





We have something to compare to in the two previous times the the stock was PUMPED....now why do I say that this stock has received pump/dump in the past.


1. This is a money losing company. It has been steadily losing money and share for many years.



2. Look at this link on the company's website...it shows the news releases

WPCS International Incorporated

there is NO news release since the end of APRIL.

3. ONE HAS TO WONDER....what is the good news that is driving up the share price of the stock....what is holding this balloon in the air????

Notice that back in April they launched a Bitcoin platform........did it go smoothly???

it is in their financial report the bolding is mine

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1086745/000114420414045841/v383812_10k.htm


Quoting 

on page 6

Pursuant to the BTX Purchase Agreement, we agreed to use our reasonable best efforts to obtain stockholders’ approval at the next annual stockholder meeting or a special meeting of stockholders for (i) the increase of the number of shares of Common Stock authorized for issuance to 75,000,000 and (ii) the issuance of all the securities issuable pursuant to the BTX Purchase Agreement (Stockholder Approval). The Company agreed to seek to obtain Stockholder Approval by April 30, 2014. As we did not obtain Stockholder Approval by April 30, 2014, we are obligated to cause an additional annual stockholder meeting to be held annually at which Stockholder Approval will be sought (or if no Annual Meeting of stockholders of WPCS is held in any given year, to seek such approval at a special meeting of stockholders of WPCS in such given year) until such Stockholder Approval is obtained. In June 2014, we obtained the Stockholder Approval for the issuance of all the securities issuable pursuant to the BTX Purchase Agreement but not the increase in the authorized shares. We intend to seek Stockholder Approval for the increase in authorized shares at a future stockholder meeting.

So shareholders were not particularly excited about the prospect it seems and it took a bit of arm twisting to gt it passed later on.

4. Finally the Sharpchart show a classic pattern to pumping.....very little relative volume...sudden increase with no company generated news to back it up....price rise...price fall back to low trading volumes...you can see it on July 13, and again on July 27.

So there is no news either for the latest sudden surge in volume.....pumping the stock price over $1.00 is not "news" of any substance.

I am not trying to embarrass you

I am trying to show you that you must develop a methodology for evaluating your trades. So far you are not showing one. Methods are not fool proof and I could well be wrong in my analysis here...but my feelings are not based on my gut.

And I am not suggesting my way is the only way... many here if they were willing could explain their approach. I just happen to be one of the talkative ones

Conclusion:

If there is substance behind this rise then the share price is better positioned as the close rests on the UPPER bollinger band now...but I don't like the strength of the Slow Sto , MACD and BBwidth...I believe it will test that support at $1.40 again and it may hold, though it would not surprise me if it were breached

But I could be wrong.

Good Luck

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Limitless100
New York, New York
 
 
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Ok, I predicted the pullback to $1.40-1.45 and it got down there for a brief period before rising a bit to close at $1.48...

As for tomorrow, I will offer this look from my perception.




Right now the closing price has fallen back between a stronger resistance a relatively weaker support...the dotted lines represent secondary resistance and support.

It is tough to decide at this point whether the support will stand another attack...but I believe it will....not from this chart but from the following one.





We have something to compare to in the two previous times the the stock was PUMPED....now why do I say that this stock has received pump/dump in the past.


1. This is a money losing company. It has been steadily losing money and share for many years.



2. Look at this link on the company's website...it shows the news releases

WPCS International Incorporated

there is NO news release since the end of APRIL.

3. ONE HAS TO WONDER....what is the good news that is driving up the share price of the stock....what is holding this balloon in the air????

Notice that back in April they launched a Bitcoin platform........did it go smoothly???

it is in their financial report the bolding is mine

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1086745/000114420414045841/v383812_10k.htm



So shareholders were not particularly excited about the prospect it seems and it took a bit of arm twisting to gt it passed later on.

4. Finally the Sharpchart show a classic pattern to pumping.....very little relative volume...sudden increase with no company generated news to back it up....price rise...price fall back to low trading volumes...you can see it on July 13, and again on July 27.

So there is no news either for the latest sudden surge in volume.....pumping the stock price over $1.00 is not "news" of any substance.

I am not trying to embarrass you

I am trying to show you that you must develop a methodology for evaluating your trades. So far you are not showing one. Methods are not fool proof and I could well be wrong in my analysis here...but my feelings are not based on my gut.

And I am not suggesting my way is the only way... many here if they were willing could explain their approach. I just happen to be one of the talkative ones

Conclusion:

If there is substance behind this rise then the share price is better positioned as the close rests on the UPPER bollinger band now...but I don't like the strength of the Slow Sto , MACD and BBwidth...I believe it will test that support at $1.40 again and it may hold, though it would not surprise me if it were breached

But I could be wrong.

Good Luck

Great analysis! I must ask though, what is the chart you continue posting with the "X" and "O"?

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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Limitless100 View Post
Great analysis! I must ask though, what is the chart you continue posting with the "X" and "O"?

that is a Point and Figure chart. I use it in a non standard way as the traditional grid size (called a box) is too coarse.

It is old school charting and over 100 years old.

I use it basically for resistance/support levels but it does have more uses



I discuss it more in this part of my journal

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  #218 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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This is all good for me to read and learn. Thanks for your analysis. I need to start taking analysis more seriously
and until I do, I'm certainly not making the most informed decisions I can be making.


I may lower my price target today, just to take a conservative profit if one should come, and then get out.

I think that would be smart.

Then, start screening for likely candidates for future trades that are on more stable ground.


This would be a good time to ask an important question concerning resistance and support.

I generally understand the basic principle behind it, but the question to ask is, how do you know what time frame to choose
in order to figure out where the resistance and support levels really are?

Look at the chart for the past three days and you might see very different R&S levels than if you looked at a three month chart.

So what do you say about that?

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Carrerain4 View Post

This would be a good time to ask an important question concerning resistance and support.

I generally understand the basic principle behind it, but the question to ask is, how do you know what time frame to choose
in order to figure out where the resistance and support levels really are?

Look at the chart for the past three days and you might see very different R&S levels than if you looked at a three month chart.

So what do you say about that?

Resistance and support lines are independent of time frame. The only difference is that you are looking and perhaps missing important data when you only choose a smaller time frame chart.



I will use this basic resistance/support diagram. You see there is no time on the axis....it is a pure price movement. The "x" columns represent a rising price, the "o" columns represent a falling price....this is the basic look of the Point & Figure chart (P&F) that I showed before.

If you use such a chart you will see times when the price seems to rise to a certain point then fall back...it is meeting a resistance (the buyers refuse to pay more for the stock)...then the price falls back perhaps as buyer demand lessens ("o" column) until the seller decides enough is enough and refuses to sell for a lower price.

this battle can last minutes (micro resistance/support) or months (macro resistance/support).

When a price is rising in a P&F chart (usually used in macro resistance measurements of a day or more) in an "X" column the tops of "X" columns and the bottoms of "o" columns to the left represent resistance.....

When a price is falling in a P&F chart in an "O" column the tops of "X" columns and the bottoms of "o" columns to the left represent support.....

consider Chart A - When you observe that in a rising column that a price consistently rises to a given point then falls back you can draw a line across the tops of the "X" columns and call it a resistance...same with the falling prices you can draw a line at the bottom of "O" columns.

What is fascinating to me is what happens when a resistance and support is breached. The more points in a resistance/support line the stronger the line is and the more the movement when it is breached...so I look for stocks that are challenging "Berlin wall" type resistances, BUT you wait until it is clearly breached...not before....then as shown in Chart A a resistance becomes a support (a ceiling becomes a floor) and the stronger the resistance the stronger the support it becomes.

Charts B and C show that resistance and support can be diagonal or a combination. Chart C is a bearish formation actually.....think of the battle going on....the buyers are bashing the maximun they will pay lower and lower...eventually the sellers will blink and the minimum price they will accept will fall through that support....but it is not guaranteed...the action takes place at the apex of that triangle .... it will probably fall but could rise...you wait for the decision to be made before buying in.

You can use resistance support on intra day line charts too. Here is an intraday chart for WPCS for the last 5 days



First as an aside...see how the volumes are getting smaller and smaller after that rise on the day before yesterday....to me that is a sign as a pumped stock...but I digress..

As you can see....I can draw lots of support (green) and resistance (red) lines.....as a chartist these are fascinating to watch.....see what happens when a support or resistance line is breached??

now this has a 15 minute delay in this chart so I don't know what is going on now....but that last triangle looks bearish to me ....so I would say it won't be long if it has not happened already for the price to fall below the $1.45 support line.

Anyway....is this NOT superior to making trades based on gut feel and media rag pumps???

I think so....

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Carrerain4
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Yeah, this is superior and I'm going to spend some time learning more about it before I make another trade.

On the bright side of things, SEAS hit my 21 dollar per share target today. I think it will push upwards slowly but surely for some time to come. But I have no current investment in SEAS.

Radio Shack has announced that they may declare bankruptcy. Now might be a good time to short it.

Oddly enough, I saw the recent RSH activity, and the news about it, and decided that it was too volatile and unpredictable for me to get in on it. I watched it and just saw a wild and unpredictable mess.

It might be a good shorting prospect, though.


As for my current position in WPCS, I have made the choice to wait it out and see what happens. I believe the day will come when I can get out without taking a loss but don't know how long that may take. It might be tomorrow, it might be a year from now. But I do not wish to turn my current paper losses into real losses at this time. Granted, the value could slide more. It could slide to zero. I accept that risk and choose not to act at this time.

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  #221 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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I thought I would give you an exercise in thinking about resistance/support.

think of it as the price rising and falling as a battle between buyer and seller....the buyer wins when the price is driven down as he gets the stock cheaper....the seller wins when the price rises as he is getting more for his shares when they sell.

I am going to show intra-day charts for 3 stocks that are interest to you....SEAS, WPCS and RSH

I want you to study each chart and answer the following questions.

1. Who is currently winning the battle between buyer and seller???

2. According to the most relevant resistance/support lines (the ones immediately above/below the last price)....is the stock in a bearish or bullish pattern? Why do you have this opinion?

3. If you decide a support will fail...where is the next support? (I don't know can be a valid answer)...if you feel a resistance may be breached...where is the next resistance?

4. Where do you think the price will be in the first hour or 2 of the next day? Why? Can you predict where the price might be by the end of trading tomorrow? Why?

I will give the answers to what I see in each of these charts in text attachments that you can open later. If you are smart, I feel silly for saying this because your intelligence is not in question here, You won't open the answer attachment for each chart before you have answered the questions for the chart. Try to write down your answers first....ok?

here we go with the charts

WPCS





SEAS





RSH





good luck......BTW...If RSH stays below $1, I would not discuss this stock anymore. @Big Mike does not like discussions of stocks under $1.00 here as they are usually manipulated....Just a comment, since I won't discuss it beyond this message as it is an interesting chart to guage R/S.

Attached Files
Register to download File Type: txt WPCS answers.txt (2.0 KB, 7 views)
Register to download File Type: txt SEAS answers.txt (2.1 KB, 4 views)
Register to download File Type: txt RSH answers.txt (1.7 KB, 4 views)
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  #222 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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I had to read the answers and follow them in order to make enough sense of what I was seeing to understand it,
so I won't pretend to have generated answers to those three charts on my own. No faking it.


As I was earlier today, I'm faced with the same options I had earlier: Hang on and ride out what may be a bumpy ride to the bottom, or what may eventually give me a profit. Or get out from under this, take my lumps, and apply the learning experience with a well defined dollar value to my future trading.

And I don't have an answer yet.


The truth is that I'm just not sure I'd have even found some of the support and resistance lines that you indicated. It's not like every wrinkle in the graph can be a support or resistance, exactly...is it?


Actually, all I can say about tomorrow is this: I'm hoping for just enough of a dead cat bounce to get me out with REDUCED losses.



It is starting to sink in on me that there's way more deph to this pool than my toes can detect. I'm standing on the first step, so to speak.

But I'm willing to learn how to swim again.

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  #223 (permalink)
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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
I had to read the answers and follow them in order to make enough sense of what I was seeing to understand it,
so I won't pretend to have generated answers to those three charts on my own. No faking it.


As I was earlier today, I'm faced with the same options I had earlier: Hang on and ride out what may be a bumpy ride to the bottom, or what may eventually give me a profit. Or get out from under this, take my lumps, and apply the learning experience with a well defined dollar value to my future trading.

And I don't have an answer yet.


The truth is that I'm just not sure I'd have even found some of the support and resistance lines that you indicated. It's not like every wrinkle in the graph can be a support or resistance, exactly...is it?

It is starting to sink in on me that there's way more depth to this pool than my toes can detect. I'm standing on the first step, so to speak.

But I'm willing to learn how to swim again.

I think most here would agree that I have tried to make this as simple as possible. But having said that I have taken the best part of 2 decades to get where I am today so you can cut yourself some slack.

Just read and re-read the answers while looking at those charts. See how close my predictions are...then re-read them again or give up on charting all together. But you need something more than gut feeling to be successful, I hope you realize that.

I am not sure you remember a little old German lady that used to be on the Johnny Carson show in the late 70's-early 80's...her name was Dr. Ruth. She had a great piece of advice regarding her profession. It was "Practice!... Practice!! ...Practice!!!". I think this applies to anything worthwhile learning, don't you .

I won't torture you any more, unless you have any questions....just shout.

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  #224 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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This is not torture, this is good educational experience and I enjoy your instruction. I should be paying you for this!


Don't be afraid to jump in any time! Please!



I will be trying to apply this information and try to read some various selected stocks and make notes of where I THINK they will go based on that analysis, and then see where they really go.

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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I will be around....if I can help just holler and hopefully I can be of aid to you.

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  #226 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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I want your opinion on GoPro at the present time. Symbol GPRO

I have formulated an opinion on it based on the chart for Friday at market close, but won't post my opinion on it
until I get another, more experienced opinion.

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  #227 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
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Carrerain4 View Post
I want your opinion on GoPro at the present time. Symbol GPRO

I have formulated an opinion on it based on the chart for Friday at market close, but won't post my opinion on it
until I get another, more experienced opinion.

no it does not work like that...I recall you saying you would post your results for WPCS and you have conveniently forgotten it mention them


Quoting 
Short answer: This is apparently a swing trade. I bought in but my price wasn't met today. I believe that'll happen in the next day or couple of days.

I'll give numbers when it's over and done.

Even if they turn out to be embarrassingly bad for me.

No sense in lying, is there?

I am not here to simply provide stock tips to you....You keeping your thought process to yourself is fine but saying you will give your opinion is like saying you are prepared to either take my suggestion and claim it concurs with yours or you will differ and point out why I would be wrong.

Sorry, I am prepared to offer comments as are others I am sure on your approach if they are welcome. I went into detail to illustrate how charting can help with decisions....but I will not do such for every stock.

If you want to discuss charts that is fine. but I won't be evaluating companies individually except to answer a charting question for you.

There are places on futures.io (formerly BMT) where you can discuss individual stocks and in fact there is a thread set up just for that purpose



It is there that you can discuss this company and exchange views with anyone interested in Gopro

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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Fair enough. But the reason I'm asking is that I'm trying to figure out where support and resistance are on it. The chart for Friday seems to be dominated by (roughly) 25 cent moves about every seven minutes for most of the day. If I were to look at any given hour's worth of the day chart, and try to infer support and resistance from that section, I would get different results than if I were to figure support and resistance on a scale of a week, and that would be different yet again if I drew it based on a scale of a month or back to the IPO.

I understand that lines drawn across peak values indicate resistance, while lines drawn across bottom values indicate support. But which timeframe is relevant? Or perhaps I should ask, which timeframe is relevant to someone who does not intend to make a long term investment?



It's the time period that is relevant to support and resistance that I'm not understanding. Draw it over different time scales and you will often get different levels.

As for my current position in WPCS, I've made no changes to it. I'm still holding with a target price that gives me minimal profit. I would rather wait and see than lock in a loss by selling out now. Accepting the possibility that it could indeed go lower and it might NEVER come back up to profitable levels for me. Risk accepted.

I will say, though, that once I get out of WPCS, whether I break even, take a loss, or reap a profit, this is the last time I'm going to mess with that stock. From now on I don't want anything to do with stocks that are seriously overperforming or showing unusual trading volume relative to the company's actual financial statements and activities. Having a clear understanding of the performance of the company behind the stock is clearly a good exercise in risk management.


And there comes another question: If we accept the idea that WPCS is being manipulated by one or more market makers, what sort of money do you figure they're throwing around in order to make those big moves?

That ties in to something I don't yet understand, either: What determines what amount of buying or selling activity is required to move a given security's price by a penny or a dollar? Hundreds of shares? Thousands? Just a few, in the case of BRKA? (Currently over 200,000 per share)

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Carrerain4 View Post
Fair enough. But the reason I'm asking is that I'm trying to figure out where support and resistance are on it. The chart for Friday seems to be dominated by (roughly) 25 cent moves about every seven minutes for most of the day. If I were to look at any given hour's worth of the day chart, and try to infer support and resistance from that section, I would get different results than if I were to figure support and resistance on a scale of a week, and that would be different yet again if I drew it based on a scale of a month or back to the IPO.

I understand that lines drawn across peak values indicate resistance, while lines drawn across bottom values indicate support. But which time frame is relevant? Or perhaps I should ask, which timeframe is relevant to someone who does not intend to make a long term investment?

It's the time period that is relevant to support and resistance that I'm not understanding. Draw it over different time scales and you will often get different levels.

resistance/support lines exist at many levels...there is no magic time frame. You choose the time frame that fits the type of trading you do.

A minute by minute time frame is not useful to any trader other than a intra-day trader...even then the volume traded in a minute might be too small to give a useful chart. Your GoPro stock seems to be ok at this level as it trades typically 8million shares per day and reasonably spread out through the day.

Resistance support levels are in the eye of the beholder. When I look for them in a chart, I use a clear plastic ruler and place it on the monitor screen when I see line formed that it is of interest. It does not have to be perfectly straight...if you use candlestick charts you can sometimes ignore the shadows (thin lines above and below the main body of the candle stick) but sometimes they consistently fall to a certain position and pull back, so you have to use your judgement.

Sometimes you can get a software where you can literally draw the lines on the chart without using a screen shot to do this in a "photoshop" software...no, I don't use such a software...I use my ruler

Daily charts are useful really for swing and longer term traders...weekly charts are useful for them as well. I have seen daytraders use these longer term charts though...since when a resistance or support is broken in these charts, the volatility often changes ...hence more opportunities for day trading.

I don't day trade...I want you do know that...these are just observations I have made watching daytraders over the years.

So in summary...when looking for resistance/support lines you fit it to the type of trading you do....in your case a 5 minute chart is probably the best but if it is really heavily traded maybe a 2 minute would be better...on a thinly traded chart you might use a 10 min or even a 15 min chart.....there is no rule, it depends on what you see in the chart.


Carrerain4 View Post
As for my current position in WPCS, I've made no changes to it. I'm still holding with a target price that gives me minimal profit. I would rather wait and see than lock in a loss by selling out now. Accepting the possibility that it could indeed go lower and it might NEVER come back up to profitable levels for me. Risk accepted.

I will say, though, that once I get out of WPCS, whether I break even, take a loss, or reap a profit, this is the last time I'm going to mess with that stock. From now on I don't want anything to do with stocks that are seriously overperforming or showing unusual trading volume relative to the company's actual financial statements and activities. Having a clear understanding of the performance of the company behind the stock is clearly a good exercise in risk management.

Well at least you are learning something...


Carrerain4 View Post
And there comes another question: If we accept the idea that WPCS is being manipulated by one or more market makers, what sort of money do you figure they're throwing around in order to make those big moves?

Money is not usually "thrown around". Market makers are not usually the instigators in a pump and dump. It is these media rags and people who make their living pumping stocks in chat groups, that are. A company may want their promoted heavily for one reason or another...so they prepare an announcement or series of vague but hinting of great things to come... a potential approval of their drug being FDA approved, a merger with an unknown company, new well about to produce oil, "encouraging" drilling results for minerals.... something like that....there is usually a small thread of truth to the story but not enough for you to verify if you dig further.

I did a major discussion on Pumps and Dumps in my journal here...



As I said, it is not money that is usually thrown around....it is free shares. The media rags and individuals who pump are offered a substantial number of free shares as an incentive to promote the company... when the interest is fever pitch and the share price rises ....then they sell off their free shares to reap their rewards


Carrerain4 View Post
That ties in to something I don't yet understand, either: What determines what amount of buying or selling activity is required to move a given security's price by a penny or a dollar? Hundreds of shares? Thousands? Just a few, in the case of BRKA? (Currently over 200,000 per share)

Perceived value of the shares... if that rises the share price will rise....if it falls the share price will fall....nothing more...nothing less....that applies to all price levels

I have give you all the charting advice I can give on resistance/support...it is not rocket science once you get the hang of it.

the best way for you to learn is for you to take a chart that interests you....draw the R/S lines on it that you can see and I would critique it...

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Carrerain4
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I'm out, and it hurt, but it was a valuable lesson.

The actual numbers are only important to me. But this did manage to erase ALL the gains I've made since I started trading. I am literally back to square one.

I decided that I have to free up funds if I am to have any chance of getting into Alibaba's Friday IPO. By clearing out my positions today, I'll have settled funds available on Friday.

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 tturner86 
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Carrerain4 View Post
The actual numbers are only important to me. But this did manage to erase ALL the gains I've made since I started trading. I am literally back to square one.

Unfortunately, this is one thing that new traders do all the time. (I did it countless times before.) To give all of your profit back on one trade usually means two things: you are trading a size too large / taking too large a risk or you are failing to cut losers quick and holding positions on hopium that they will recover.

You have learned a valuable lesson trading is a game of what you keep. You can make all the profit in the world, but if you fail to keep it, it doesn't matter.

As a trader all you can ever really do is: Cut losers quick, manage your risk, and try to maximize your profits.

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 deaddog 
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Carrerain4 View Post


As for my current position in WPCS, I have made the choice to wait it out and see what happens. I believe the day will come when I can get out without taking a loss but don't know how long that may take. It might be tomorrow, it might be a year from now. But I do not wish to turn my current paper losses into real losses at this time. Granted, the value could slide more. It could slide to zero. I accept that risk and choose not to act at this time.

What caused you to change your mind?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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Carrerain4 View Post
I'm out, and it hurt, but it was a valuable lesson.

The actual numbers are only important to me. But this did manage to erase ALL the gains I've made since I started trading. I am literally back to square one.

I decided that I have to free up funds if I am to have any chance of getting into Alibaba's Friday IPO. By clearing out my positions today, I'll have settled funds available on Friday.

Ok... I am sorry for your loss but hopefully you learned a good lesson from it. Pump and Dump stocks are insidious. The pumpers want you to get caught up in the emotion of the situation...and go with your GUT. You cannot do that and be consistently successful. It is relatively easy to spot P&D's once they really get going, from a chart...the escalating unusual volume and then the share price rising far above the upper Bollinger band.

It is nice of course if you catch such a stock early in the game before it reveals itself and you can ride the wave getting out at the top...but to try to catch that wave at the top is usually fatal.

As far as Alibaba goes, your odds of getting in at the start will be small...You again are getting into something that has a lot of emotion at work. In this stock you run the risk of buying in only when the excitement dies and the early subscribers want to get out and take their profits. IPO's are sort of like a PUMP & Dump cousin to me...they are generating emotion to make their money fast.

IMHO you must learn to divorce yourself from emotion in your stock buys/sells.

Of course the situation is not exactly the same as Facebook which had a ridiculous evaluation and IPO... it took a year or so just for the stock to recover to its IPO price. Facebook had no observable revenues...it was all speculation. Alibaba does have substantial business in China and purports a desire to enter the North American market...I wonder about a backlash to such an idea by North American investors though.

Good luck in your endeavor...not my cup of tea though...too unpredictable...

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  #234 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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What caused me to change my mind was several days of though and coming to the rational conclusion that I had put money into a stock that had NO reason to be doing as well as it had recently, and had turned downward consistently for a few days, and showed no rational reason to reverse that trend.

The time came to cut it free before it sank me even further. I realized I'd hitched my wagon to a turd.

A secondary consideration is that I wanted to free up what's left of my funds in order to be ABLE to participate in the
upcoming Alibaba IPO day mayhem, IF I choose to do so.

Or use them for any other purpose.

I have not made any picks on anything else today.

As for Alibaba's reception in America, I actually don't think that'll be a problem.

I take it that you have visited Alibaba's site and seen how they work? I see it as an innovative combination of the best
features of both amazon and ebay. And there is hardly anything you can think of that you can't find on alibaba.

I think that Amazon and other online retailers have much to fear from Alibaba. I see it as the up-and-coming equivalent
to Wal-Mart, both putting big dents in the bottom lines of the companies that compete in the same markets.

My belief is that it will be both a good opportunity for short term profit taking and for long term investment growth.
I expect it to bounce around a lot, at least at first, but soon establish a steady upward trend that will put a smile on the
face of any long term investor.

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 deaddog 
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I think you have to make up your mind whether you are a trader or an investor.

At least earmark your different accounts for either trading or investing. Short term trading has very little to do with fundamentals. Traders base their decisions on what price is doing in the near term.

Investors should base their decisions on the perceived future value of the company. Knowing the fundamentals of a company an investor can use technical analysis to determine buy and sell levels.

Either way you should have a plan going into your trades as to what you expect to accomplish. What change in price or fundamentals will trigger an exit.

Your journal will help. Make your plan public as to what has to happen for you to enter and exit your trades. You will be surprised at how much pressure you put on yourself to execute your trades according to your plan once you make it public. It is a lot easier to justify changing your plan to yourself than to justify it to an anonymous group on a trading forum.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #236 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
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How much time from now do you think it'll take you to earn enough money to buy your porsche? I'm not referring to how much it'll take for you to earn to buy a porsche and live your lifestyle, but just simply the porsche itself.

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  #237 (permalink)
Paige
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I'm startled that no one has made a derogatory comment about guys who drive Porsche's --- yet

Peace,
Paige

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  #238 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
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Paige View Post
I'm startled that no one has made a derogatory comment about guys who drive Porsche's --- yet

Peace,
Paige

At least he didn't pick an inferior corvette as his dream car.

Louis C K recalls a conversation with Jerry Seinfeld


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  #239 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Why would you make such inconsiderate comments in this journal @Itchymoku and @Paige???

This guy is recovering from making a really bad trade that wiped out his previous 2 months of earnings...he fell for a Pump and Dump even though he was warned about it....He may be headed for a similar experience in an Alibaba IPO, but that remains to be seen.

And you sideswipe his journal with these comments....you are not helping this newbie at all.

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  #240 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
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Underexposed View Post
Why would you make such inconsiderate comments in this journal @Itchymoku and @Paige???

This guy is recovering from making a really bad trade that wiped out his previous 2 months of earnings...he fell for a Pump and Dump even though he was warned about it....He may be headed for a similar experience in an Alibaba IPO, but that remains to be seen.

And you sideswipe his journal with these comments....you are not helping this newbie at all.

Oh I didn't mean any sideswiping, I actually haven't really been reading the journal lately as I've been trying to catch up to all the threads I'm subscribed to. Last post I read was #213 and thought he was doing well. I feel bad now.

The title of the journal caught my eye and I felt the urge to pop in and make a quick little reply.

I apologize. I was actually rooting for this guy. I have a really bad habit of not keeping up with journals that have a plethora of posts.

Carrerain4, despite what the market throws at you I think you're a bright guy and to just keep at it. I hope you make a quick recovery.

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
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  #241 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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@Underexposed he has to help himself first. So far no evidence of him being ready to listen to anyone yet.

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  #242 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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@Underexposed he has to help himself first. So far no evidence of him being ready to listen to anyone yet.

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I should add, that's normal. He just isn't ready.

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  #243 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
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Big Mike View Post
@Underexposed he has to help himself first. So far no evidence of him being ready to listen to anyone yet.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

Yes, I understand this totally and I have tried to sway him away from "instinct" "gut feeling".

He has had that lucky streak in the beginning and it comes as a shock when that failed so dramatically. I recognize what he is going through myself...and to see those comments on his journal title, without a thought for recent events in the journal, burned me a bit because I have seen a softening of his arrogance in his later posts.

In many ways the situation with this person is not unlike preaching the evils of gambling at casinos and taking your son to a casino to prove the point only to have them win instead of lose (happened to my son...big mistake on my part). Bad habits set in and take a long time to root them out. Perhaps this has affected my response to this poster.

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  #244 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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No worries, even about what some people might call snarky comments. I'm not easily offended, and to me, virtually any question is a fair question.


How long will it take to earn enough to buy any given Porsche?

Well, at the current rate of cumulative return...FOREVER. :car:

But the question to be asked there is, what model, new, or used?

I could get a decent 2000 Boxster for about 10K. Or a new base model Carrera for about 78K,
or a 2015 911 Turbo S with all the goodies for about 220K. Or a 918 for about 860K.

I'd need to double those figures in order for me to be able to say that I can afford the cost of the car.

Realistically speaking, I'll probably be driving a used 911 that sells for between 25 and 50K and it might happen
within a year. But I don't claim that it will be funded by trading proceeds.

Tomorrow morning I will be at a testing center at 8 AM. If I pass my test I will then be a licensed insurance agent
in Florida and will immediately go to work for an insurance company that you probably have heard of. I then get
my training to actually do the job and then the real fun begins....busting my hump on a daily basis in order to make
the "advertised' average income for the job, which is between 60 and 66 K for the first year, and 100K or better
for the second.

The job is 100 percent commission. Oh, that's gonna be fun! And I am 50 percent serious and 50 percent sarcastic when I say that.

As a result of tomorrow's testing, it is quite possible that I won't even be in a position where I can watch the market
until midday. Which may or may not be a good thing.

As for the Alibaba IPO, I am as sure as I can be without hard evidence or the ability to see into the future that there
will be substantial profit potential for a day trader. IF you make the right entry and exit points happen.

But what those are, I don't know. Nobody knows what the per share price will be at the moment that it is opened
to general trading, which will likely be some time between 10 AM and 11 AM. I do suspect it will be at or above
the high end of its predicted IPO price range.

According to today's WSJ, one unusual feature of the Alibaba IPO is that people who already hold their stock will be
permitted to sell their stock tomorrow. This isn't a standard feature of IPOs so there will no doubt be some considerable
selling pressure from people who obtained shares pre-IPO at considerably less than the IPO introductory price, and will
be happy to take their instant profits. I expect this to contribute significantly to volatility and may keep prices from
jumping up rapidly or as far. So this adds a great deal of uncertainty to what may happen tomorrow.



I'm screening stocks that move in high average volume (1 million shares or better, every day) and looking for the support and resistance patterns I'm starting to learn about. Aside from MAYBE participating in the Alibaba free-for-all that will happen tomorrow, I'm not going to make any future picks without making use of those technical indicators as part of the process.

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  #245 (permalink)
 deaddog 
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Carrerain4 View Post
I then get my training to actually do the job and then the real fun begins....busting my hump on a daily basis in order to make the "advertised' average income for the job, .

Not unlike trading. First you learn then you bust your hump to make a living.




Quoting 
The job is 100 percent commission. Oh, that's gonna be fun! And I am 50 percent serious and 50 percent sarcastic when I say that.

Even better than trading, When you make a mistake at least they won’t deduct from your pay check.


Quoting 
I'm screening stocks that move in high average volume (1 million shares or better, every day) and looking for the support and resistance patterns I'm starting to learn about. Aside from MAYBE participating in the Alibaba free-for-all that will happen tomorrow, I'm not going to make any future picks without making use of those technical indicators as part of the process.

Do you have a plan that you will be able to follow when the trading in Alibaba starts. What has to happen for you to enter and once you are in where do you plan to exit?

Do you have a plan on how you will use support and resistance. What will cause you to enter and where will your exits be?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #246 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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To be honest with you, I think that I will not be trying to get in on the Alibaba IPO tomorrow due to its complete lack of documented history.

That IPO will be so heavily dominated by raw speculation, AND, given that it will be possible for existing shareholders to
dump their stock during the IPO, I think that volatility will be so high that you could call it explosive.

I am trying to get away from trading based on a DESIRE to make money. While making money will always be the goal,
I have to divorce myself from DESIRE, which is an emotion that clouds judgement.

Thus, I believe I will not participate tomorrow. The IPO will be overwhelmed with desire-based activity and no prediction for its price action is likely to be made based on anything other than emotion.

Logic says, wait it out. Do not jump into those rapids tomorrow.

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
To be honest with you, I think that I will not be trying to get in on the Alibaba IPO tomorrow due to its complete lack of documented history.

That IPO will be so heavily dominated by raw speculation, AND, given that it will be possible for existing shareholders to
dump their stock during the IPO, I think that volatility will be so high that you could call it explosive.

I am trying to get away from trading based on a DESIRE to make money. While making money will always be the goal,
I have to divorce myself from DESIRE, which is an emotion that clouds judgement.

Thus, I believe I will not participate tomorrow. The IPO will be overwhelmed with desire-based activity and no prediction for its price action is likely to be made based on anything other than emotion.

Logic says, wait it out. Do not jump into those rapids tomorrow.

Good move...best to watch at this point as there are too many unknowns.

Remember...there is no stock play that you have to play RFN {right now}. If anyone says this to you, in sales parlance, it is a "hard sell" and that rarely is in your best interest.

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  #248 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Carrerain4 View Post

Tomorrow morning I will be at a testing center at 8 AM. If I pass my test I will then be a licensed insurance agent
in Florida and will immediately go to work for an insurance company that you probably have heard of. I then get
my training to actually do the job and then the real fun begins....busting my hump on a daily basis in order to make
the "advertised' average income for the job, which is between 60 and 66 K for the first year, and 100K or better
for the second.

The job is 100 percent commission. Oh, that's gonna be fun! And I am 50 percent serious and 50 percent sarcastic when I say that.

Well speaking as a former salesman/sales manager, you have not chosen an easy sales profession. Most insurance salesmen take years to become really successful. You really depend on referrals if you are smart and when just starting out it is difficult to develop those referrals

Good luck

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  #249 (permalink)
Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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Agreed, going into this field will not be the easiest thing I have ever done.

But it's something I can do which has greater earnings potential than anything I've yet done.

It's worth trying. And I know that it won't pay off without me working hard at it.

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  #250 (permalink)
Carrerain4
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Right now the only solid piece of information I'd trade on doesn't even apply to me as I don't have the ability to short stocks at this time.

I'd short Sears. Particularly after Jim Cramer's recent rip on it.

I have shopped at the local Sears stores recently and they're ghost towns. Maybe they could be profitable if they were
to separate the tool department from the rest of the operation, and ditch the rest, but Sears has failed to adapt to the second decade of the 21st century and I don't envision them fixing their problem, no more than I expect Radio Shack to fix their problem, which is the same problem.

Sears is down more than 29 percent YTD.

I'd short it, without hesitation, if I could. And, yes, support and resistance agrees. Practically every S&R line you can draw is heading down. The only difference is what angle it's heading down at. I'm seeing the bear triangle formation everywhere, and today's chart shows it very well. It's been sliding downward since early 2007.

I may be new to this, and not know technicals enough to mention, but in this case it's so obvious anybody could see it.
There's just no upside to Sears unless you're willing to short it.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it'll drop below 24 bucks a share before the end of the year. Actually I think it could drop below 20 by then. I think that the rats are about to realize that the ship is sinking, and when word gets to the rest of the herd, the price is going to tank at an ever increasing rate.

I say that because the recent high prices since May draw out a downward curve and the rate of downward movement appears to be accelerating. it's looking like the start of a parabolic curve.

It may drop faster than I dare to even write down. It might be a penny stock in a year.

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  #251 (permalink)
Paige
Gainesville, Florida, United S
 
 
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Inconsiderate? I didn't say he actually did drive one !

Come on now, Underexposed, let's not play the --- "I'm the person on the forum that can't take a joke that wasn't even directed at me (or anyone else, for that matter) role. "

Peace,
Paige

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Right now the only solid piece of information I'd trade on doesn't even apply to me as I don't have the ability to short stocks at this time.

I'd short Sears. Particularly after Jim Cramer's recent rip on it.

I have shopped at the local Sears stores recently and they're ghost towns. Maybe they could be profitable if they were
to separate the tool department from the rest of the operation, and ditch the rest, but Sears has failed to adapt to the second decade of the 21st century and I don't envision them fixing their problem, no more than I expect Radio Shack to fix their problem, which is the same problem.

Sears is down more than 29 percent YTD.

I'd short it, without hesitation, if I could. And, yes, support and resistance agrees. Practically every S&R line you can draw is heading down. The only difference is what angle it's heading down at. I'm seeing the bear triangle formation everywhere, and today's chart shows it very well. It's been sliding downward since early 2007.

I may be new to this, and not know technicals enough to mention, but in this case it's so obvious anybody could see it.
There's just no upside to Sears unless you're willing to short it.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it'll drop below 24 bucks a share before the end of the year. Actually I think it could drop below 20 by then. I think that the rats are about to realize that the ship is sinking, and when word gets to the rest of the herd, the price is going to tank at an ever increasing rate.

I say that because the recent high prices since May draw out a downward curve and the rate of downward movement appears to be accelerating. it's looking like the start of a parabolic curve.

It may drop faster than I dare to even write down. It might be a penny stock in a year.

nice to see your spirit is back but you are going out on the limb with nothing but your gut feelings again and Jim Cramer is nothing but a media stock pumper in my opinion...

As far as resistance/support for Sears Holdings you still have some work to do there as there is a major support coming up very soon.



That is the low point for the past year of about $27/share...you will also note that the share price has been below the lower Bollinger band as shown in that circle....it is due for a pullback in the next day or so.

I am not saying that eventually the price won't breach that support but I doubt it will happen on this challenge.



Everyone shouts about how disastrous the last quarterly report was...and as the above table com-paring quarters go it is not good on a year on year basis...everyone knows that....but if you make the comparison with this last quarter and the last 3 quarters things seem to have stabilized a bit...so it is showing health....no....disastrous I don't think so.

I may be wrong and the Share price sails through...it can happen...and I don't short but I know many that do and they would never short a stock as it approaches a support line...investors remember that low point...the "disastrous" quarter is becoming old news, there is an excellent chance that the support will hold...on this challenge anyway.

I would be very careful about making a short at this point... it could bite you in the assets. I would say there is a pullback tomorrow or the next trading day.

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  #253 (permalink)
Carrerain4
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No, I did not buy into Alibaba today. It probably was great for anyone who already owned shares and sold them this morning, but actually buying it today looks like it would have been a losing proposition.

Given the very odd way that the stock is set up with relation to the company, I think that will really hurt its long term performance as you don't actually end up holding any real pieces of Alibaba. When you buy BABA, you are buying shares in a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands which has assigned rights to some Alibaba profits, if I understand the deal correctly.


I've never yet heard of a stranger arrangement.

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  #254 (permalink)
Alpha Trader
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Big Mike View Post
@Underexposed he has to help himself first. So far no evidence of him being ready to listen to anyone yet.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

Some people need to be "burnt" bad enough for their conscious mind to engrave that event as being linked to pain. Unfortunately, we all have a different threshold for "pain".

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 Itchymoku 
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Alpha Trader View Post
Some people need to be "burnt" bad enough for their conscious mind to engrave that event as being linked to pain. Unfortunately, we all have a different threshold for "pain".

I blew my first account in a matter of hours. I just kept trading till it was all gone. Very humbling experience. And this was well over ~20 trades consecutively. Made some, lost some, made less, lost more, repeat etc.

And that was my first account..

Second account I accidentally added 0 onto the end of the lot size and without correcting the mistake and getting out I had the grand idea of just let it ride either way. In a matter of minutes I watched hundreds of dollars fly out the window.

Talk about harrowing... It took years just to learn how to not pull the trigger

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  #256 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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Carrerain4 View Post
No, I did not buy into Alibaba today. It probably was great for anyone who already owned shares and sold them this morning, but actually buying it today looks like it would have been a losing proposition.

Given the very odd way that the stock is set up with relation to the company, I think that will really hurt its long term performance as you don't actually end up holding any real pieces of Alibaba. When you buy BABA, you are buying shares in a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands which has assigned rights to some Alibaba profits, if I understand the deal correctly.


I've never yet heard of a stranger arrangement.

If I believe correctly it is because the largest shareholder of AliBaba is the Chinese Government and there is some law that keeps a ChinaGov company from trading on the US exchanges. (I could be wrong.) I believe that is why for the IPO they did this cayman island deal... Google it, there should be something about it.

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JTurner77
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Unfortunately, this is one thing that new traders do all the time. (I did it countless times before.) To give all of your profit back on one trade usually means two things: you are trading a size too large / taking too large a risk or you are failing to cut losers quick and holding positions on hopium that they will recover.

You have learned a valuable lesson trading is a game of what you keep. You can make all the profit in the world, but if you fail to keep it, it doesn't matter.

As a trader all you can ever really do is: Cut losers quick, manage your risk, and try to maximize your profits.

This is my story. I was trading very well and got super confident and cocky. Started making stupid trades terminating in getting caught in a limit move in Orange Juice with far too big a position. Watched the bulk of my profits from that trade disappear into the ether in stunning speed. Thankfully, I was still more or less back to breakeven after that debacle but I was so disgusted with myself and ashamed for lacking the discipline that I thought I had that I put myself on a timeout.

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Carrerain4
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Still looking for my next trade opportunity. Taking my time. Absolutely no rush at all.

I'm considering AAPL for a longer term run, really an investment rather than a shorter term trade. Some analysts
have set a target of 130 per share on it and right now it's around 101.

I might do that with my larger account.

My smaller account has taken enough of a value loss that I don't know what I'm going to do with it. Probably I'm
just going to cash it out and move it to tradeking.

In all honesty, my smaller account is no longer a viable account if I keep it with Vanguard as their insanely high trade
fees (40 dollars round trip!) makes it really hard to pull a profit.

So moving it to Tradeking is my only viable option BUT it's too small for Tradeking's minimum funding requirement,
so I will have to add more funds.

I would characterize my trading experiments with the smaller account as a failure thanks to my last goofs. It's dead.

My larger account has not suffered very much. But it's going back to longer term investments, I think.


I guess the real truth is that I'm going have to suspend active trading for a while. One account has become too small and will be eaten by commissions, and the other would quickly get nibbled to death by those same absurd commissions.

I believe my best answer is to move both accounts to Tradeking. IB is not yet an option.


Now, about that Alibaba IPO. Now it's called the largest IPO in history. But I'm looking at the chart right now and what I see is absolutely nothing to write home about. If you weren't a pre-IPO holder of BABA stock, it would have proven impossible to make more than about $3.85 per share so far if you had had perfect timing on both buy and sell.

It's barely made 4 percent AT BEST since after that huge price drop after it hit the streets around noon last Friday.

I'm really glad I stayed out of it. So far I'm just not seeing much to get excited about. Today it's given up more than a buck and a half a share. And I think its price action will be dominated by pre-IPO stock owners taking their profits
for some time to come. I just don't think this is a stock I will want to get into for some time to come.

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  #259 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Still looking for my next trade opportunity. Taking my time. Absolutely no rush at all.

...

Now, about that Alibaba IPO. Now it's called the largest IPO in history. But I'm looking at the chart right now and what I see is absolutely nothing to write home about. If you weren't a pre-IPO holder of BABA stock, it would have proven impossible to make more than about $3.85 per share so far if you had had perfect timing on both buy and sell.

It's barely made 4 percent AT BEST since after that huge price drop after it hit the streets around noon last Friday.

I'm really glad I stayed out of it. So far I'm just not seeing much to get excited about. Today it's given up more than a buck and a half a share. And I think its price action will be dominated by pre-IPO stock owners taking their profits
for some time to come. I just don't think this is a stock I will want to get into for some time to come.

Excellent post. Pick your shots, that's the idea.

Bob.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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Thanks.

My (current) high cost of trades is forcing me to adjust my overall strategy. Frankly it's heading more toward the long term category. For example, I'm contemplating buying into AAPL or BRKB. Neither is likely to give the sort of high short term returns I'd want in a day trade, but I think they'll make good investments. Particularly BRKB.

The catch is, I started this whole enterprise to (hopefully) make money at a greater rate than the major indexes and
best stocks, which has obviously had its pitfalls BUT went well other than those pitfalls. ("So other than that part, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?"

I have to decide what path to take, and for how long.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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My trading is on hiatus for the time being. I've taken a new job which should pay better than anything I've done before but as of yet it hasn't paid me anything as I'm in the training phase. Thus, I'm in a cash burn situation and have to be ultimately conservative with my money at the present time.

I'll be back to trading AFTER I've established a good income from the new job and have managed to set aside 10K per account (minimum) for trading with a different broker.

I've put my remaining account balance into some of Vanguard's best performing mutuals for the time being.

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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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Well, it's been about a year since my last visit here.

The job I tried flat out didn't work for me. I ain't no insurance salesman! AFLAC was the "job" but after five weeks on the road busting hump, I had ONE customer to show for it. Or about 50 bucks.

Forget that noise. I haven't lifted a finger to try that since about March, and I never will again.

Some people are good at selling insurance. I'm not, and in part because rather than actually get the training I was promised, I got excuses, delays, lip service, and NO training.

I can say some unkind things about some insurance salesmen, too. But I won't. It's implied.

So I've fallen back on something I'm pretty decent at: Finding undervalued surplus electronics and reselling them
for good profit margins. Usually this stuff is pretty specialized and pretty expensive. I've made better money doing this than in any regular job I've ever had, and worked far fewer hours to do it.


The recent events in the stock market have caused me to watch with great interest. With the DJIA 50 day moving average crossing the 200 day moving average, which many say signifies the start of a bull market, I'm just going to sit back and watch and see what happens.

I've been tempted to take a short position against the DJIA.

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 Itchymoku 
Philadelphia
 
Experience: None
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Carrerain4 View Post
Well, it's been about a year since my last visit here.

The job I tried flat out didn't work for me. I ain't no insurance salesman! AFLAC was the "job" but after five weeks on the road busting hump, I had ONE customer to show for it. Or about 50 bucks.

Forget that noise. I haven't lifted a finger to try that since about March, and I never will again.

Some people are good at selling insurance. I'm not, and in part because rather than actually get the training I was promised, I got excuses, delays, lip service, and NO training.

I can say some unkind things about some insurance salesmen, too. But I won't. It's implied.

So I've fallen back on something I'm pretty decent at: Finding undervalued surplus electronics and reselling them
for good profit margins. Usually this stuff is pretty specialized and pretty expensive. I've made better money doing this than in any regular job I've ever had, and worked far fewer hours to do it.


The recent events in the stock market have caused me to watch with great interest. With the DJIA 50 day moving average crossing the 200 day moving average, which many say signifies the start of a bull market, I'm just going to sit back and watch and see what happens.

I've been tempted to take a short position against the DJIA.

What surplus electronics are you talking about? give me an example. Where do you get them from and where do you sell them. Thank you, I appreciate the information, It seems like something I might be interested in too.

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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Carrerain4
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 49 received

This month, it's digital satellite receivers used in TV stations, not the consumer variety, and also, Inmarsat shipboard satellite telephone and data terminals, suitable for ships of any size.

I work with local companies that get surplus equipment and products from electronics manufacturers and service providers, and also with companies that are in the electronics recycling market.

Margins are 50 percent or more.

But...the high margin stuff requires product knowledge in order to maximize value. I test everything I sell. Including the marine satellite phone systems.

I also buy, refurbish, and resell Apple Mac computers as long as they're recent models, meaning, anything with Intel processors. Basically everything with an aluminum case rather than a plastic case.

I've done up to 12K in sales in one month. At 50 percent profit. But some months bring almost no money. It's highly variable but the average is pretty good and I've been able to do this on less than 20 hours a week. Sometimes WAY less.

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