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Newbie seeks new Porsche via day trading. See what happens.
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Newbie seeks new Porsche via day trading. See what happens.

  #251 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Gainesville, Florida, United S
 
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Inconsiderate? I didn't say he actually did drive one !

Come on now, Underexposed, let's not play the --- "I'm the person on the forum that can't take a joke that wasn't even directed at me (or anyone else, for that matter) role. "

Peace,
Paige

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  #252 (permalink)
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Carrerain4 View Post
Right now the only solid piece of information I'd trade on doesn't even apply to me as I don't have the ability to short stocks at this time.

I'd short Sears. Particularly after Jim Cramer's recent rip on it.

I have shopped at the local Sears stores recently and they're ghost towns. Maybe they could be profitable if they were
to separate the tool department from the rest of the operation, and ditch the rest, but Sears has failed to adapt to the second decade of the 21st century and I don't envision them fixing their problem, no more than I expect Radio Shack to fix their problem, which is the same problem.

Sears is down more than 29 percent YTD.

I'd short it, without hesitation, if I could. And, yes, support and resistance agrees. Practically every S&R line you can draw is heading down. The only difference is what angle it's heading down at. I'm seeing the bear triangle formation everywhere, and today's chart shows it very well. It's been sliding downward since early 2007.

I may be new to this, and not know technicals enough to mention, but in this case it's so obvious anybody could see it.
There's just no upside to Sears unless you're willing to short it.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it'll drop below 24 bucks a share before the end of the year. Actually I think it could drop below 20 by then. I think that the rats are about to realize that the ship is sinking, and when word gets to the rest of the herd, the price is going to tank at an ever increasing rate.

I say that because the recent high prices since May draw out a downward curve and the rate of downward movement appears to be accelerating. it's looking like the start of a parabolic curve.

It may drop faster than I dare to even write down. It might be a penny stock in a year.

nice to see your spirit is back but you are going out on the limb with nothing but your gut feelings again and Jim Cramer is nothing but a media stock pumper in my opinion...

As far as resistance/support for Sears Holdings you still have some work to do there as there is a major support coming up very soon.

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That is the low point for the past year of about $27/share...you will also note that the share price has been below the lower Bollinger band as shown in that circle....it is due for a pullback in the next day or so.

I am not saying that eventually the price won't breach that support but I doubt it will happen on this challenge.

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Everyone shouts about how disastrous the last quarterly report was...and as the above table com-paring quarters go it is not good on a year on year basis...everyone knows that....but if you make the comparison with this last quarter and the last 3 quarters things seem to have stabilized a bit...so it is showing health....no....disastrous I don't think so.

I may be wrong and the Share price sails through...it can happen...and I don't short but I know many that do and they would never short a stock as it approaches a support line...investors remember that low point...the "disastrous" quarter is becoming old news, there is an excellent chance that the support will hold...on this challenge anyway.

I would be very careful about making a short at this point... it could bite you in the assets. I would say there is a pullback tomorrow or the next trading day.

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  #253 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Melbourne FL, USA
 
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No, I did not buy into Alibaba today. It probably was great for anyone who already owned shares and sold them this morning, but actually buying it today looks like it would have been a losing proposition.

Given the very odd way that the stock is set up with relation to the company, I think that will really hurt its long term performance as you don't actually end up holding any real pieces of Alibaba. When you buy BABA, you are buying shares in a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands which has assigned rights to some Alibaba profits, if I understand the deal correctly.


I've never yet heard of a stranger arrangement.

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  #254 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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Big Mike View Post
@Underexposed he has to help himself first. So far no evidence of him being ready to listen to anyone yet.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

Some people need to be "burnt" bad enough for their conscious mind to engrave that event as being linked to pain. Unfortunately, we all have a different threshold for "pain".

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  #255 (permalink)
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Alpha Trader View Post
Some people need to be "burnt" bad enough for their conscious mind to engrave that event as being linked to pain. Unfortunately, we all have a different threshold for "pain".

I blew my first account in a matter of hours. I just kept trading till it was all gone. Very humbling experience. And this was well over ~20 trades consecutively. Made some, lost some, made less, lost more, repeat etc.

And that was my first account..

Second account I accidentally added 0 onto the end of the lot size and without correcting the mistake and getting out I had the grand idea of just let it ride either way. In a matter of minutes I watched hundreds of dollars fly out the window.

Talk about harrowing... It took years just to learn how to not pull the trigger


Last edited by Itchymoku; September 19th, 2014 at 05:41 PM.
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  #256 (permalink)
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Carrerain4 View Post
No, I did not buy into Alibaba today. It probably was great for anyone who already owned shares and sold them this morning, but actually buying it today looks like it would have been a losing proposition.

Given the very odd way that the stock is set up with relation to the company, I think that will really hurt its long term performance as you don't actually end up holding any real pieces of Alibaba. When you buy BABA, you are buying shares in a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands which has assigned rights to some Alibaba profits, if I understand the deal correctly.


I've never yet heard of a stranger arrangement.

If I believe correctly it is because the largest shareholder of AliBaba is the Chinese Government and there is some law that keeps a ChinaGov company from trading on the US exchanges. (I could be wrong.) I believe that is why for the IPO they did this cayman island deal... Google it, there should be something about it.

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  #257 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
Unfortunately, this is one thing that new traders do all the time. (I did it countless times before.) To give all of your profit back on one trade usually means two things: you are trading a size too large / taking too large a risk or you are failing to cut losers quick and holding positions on hopium that they will recover.

You have learned a valuable lesson trading is a game of what you keep. You can make all the profit in the world, but if you fail to keep it, it doesn't matter.

As a trader all you can ever really do is: Cut losers quick, manage your risk, and try to maximize your profits.

This is my story. I was trading very well and got super confident and cocky. Started making stupid trades terminating in getting caught in a limit move in Orange Juice with far too big a position. Watched the bulk of my profits from that trade disappear into the ether in stunning speed. Thankfully, I was still more or less back to breakeven after that debacle but I was so disgusted with myself and ashamed for lacking the discipline that I thought I had that I put myself on a timeout.

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  #258 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Still looking for my next trade opportunity. Taking my time. Absolutely no rush at all.

I'm considering AAPL for a longer term run, really an investment rather than a shorter term trade. Some analysts
have set a target of 130 per share on it and right now it's around 101.

I might do that with my larger account.

My smaller account has taken enough of a value loss that I don't know what I'm going to do with it. Probably I'm
just going to cash it out and move it to tradeking.

In all honesty, my smaller account is no longer a viable account if I keep it with Vanguard as their insanely high trade
fees (40 dollars round trip!) makes it really hard to pull a profit.

So moving it to Tradeking is my only viable option BUT it's too small for Tradeking's minimum funding requirement,
so I will have to add more funds.

I would characterize my trading experiments with the smaller account as a failure thanks to my last goofs. It's dead.

My larger account has not suffered very much. But it's going back to longer term investments, I think.


I guess the real truth is that I'm going have to suspend active trading for a while. One account has become too small and will be eaten by commissions, and the other would quickly get nibbled to death by those same absurd commissions.

I believe my best answer is to move both accounts to Tradeking. IB is not yet an option.


Now, about that Alibaba IPO. Now it's called the largest IPO in history. But I'm looking at the chart right now and what I see is absolutely nothing to write home about. If you weren't a pre-IPO holder of BABA stock, it would have proven impossible to make more than about $3.85 per share so far if you had had perfect timing on both buy and sell.

It's barely made 4 percent AT BEST since after that huge price drop after it hit the streets around noon last Friday.

I'm really glad I stayed out of it. So far I'm just not seeing much to get excited about. Today it's given up more than a buck and a half a share. And I think its price action will be dominated by pre-IPO stock owners taking their profits
for some time to come. I just don't think this is a stock I will want to get into for some time to come.

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  #259 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Carrerain4 View Post
Still looking for my next trade opportunity. Taking my time. Absolutely no rush at all.

...

Now, about that Alibaba IPO. Now it's called the largest IPO in history. But I'm looking at the chart right now and what I see is absolutely nothing to write home about. If you weren't a pre-IPO holder of BABA stock, it would have proven impossible to make more than about $3.85 per share so far if you had had perfect timing on both buy and sell.

It's barely made 4 percent AT BEST since after that huge price drop after it hit the streets around noon last Friday.

I'm really glad I stayed out of it. So far I'm just not seeing much to get excited about. Today it's given up more than a buck and a half a share. And I think its price action will be dominated by pre-IPO stock owners taking their profits
for some time to come. I just don't think this is a stock I will want to get into for some time to come.

Excellent post. Pick your shots, that's the idea.

Bob.

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  #260 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Thanks.

My (current) high cost of trades is forcing me to adjust my overall strategy. Frankly it's heading more toward the long term category. For example, I'm contemplating buying into AAPL or BRKB. Neither is likely to give the sort of high short term returns I'd want in a day trade, but I think they'll make good investments. Particularly BRKB.

The catch is, I started this whole enterprise to (hopefully) make money at a greater rate than the major indexes and
best stocks, which has obviously had its pitfalls BUT went well other than those pitfalls. ("So other than that part, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?"

I have to decide what path to take, and for how long.

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