I trust your opinion. If I do buy into it, it will be with a SMALLER amount rather than put the whole 8K into it. Maybe put a quarter of that into it. But with my higher fees now, I really have to think about that.
I may just stay on the sidelines for a while. And maybe not. I have to give it some thought and try to approach this from a rational point of view instead of "Think of how much money I can make if it jumps 20 cents a share tomorrow!".
I don't mind pump and dump schemes as long as I am one of the ones who jump out before the dump happens.
But that's not very predictable, is it?
In the past I've likened the market to gambling. I've realized that actually it's very different from that.
When you gamble, you put your money down and the game plays out and that particular hand, spin, or roll of the dice determines with absolute authority if you have won or lost. You can take your winnings and go home, let it ride in the hopes of a bigger win, or accept your loss. No other options.
In the market, the play isn't over until you decide to cash out. Even if you're down, it MIGHT come back for you,
but then again, it might not.
My mother has a good sized but conservative investment portfolio. In it is one stock that my dad bought years ago
based on local news for a specific company picking up a federal contract. He bought it near the peak it would achieve in that time frame. It then dropped back down to its usual and customary level, about half what he bought it for.
Right now, it's gone up a lot based on a good earnings report and if my mother sold it now, she'd make a profit on it, and a rather decent one, but this is the first time since 2010 that it could be profitable for her.
I am rather frustrated that she has not taken my advice and had her broker sell it, take the profit, and get out of this
particular stock that just sits down around 2.50 per share almost all the time. It doesn't climb or fall with the indexes,
it just sits there.
It's started to go back to its usual and customary levels. If she doesn't dump it fast, it may be years before she can see a chance at making a profit on it.
That sort of thing annoys me. It's why I have far more of the mentality of the short term trader than the long term investor. I want my money to GROW, and quickly. And i want to be free of encumbrances that aren't making me a dime.
it is up to you, you must make up your own mind. You must also make your own mistakes too and I should not interfere. It is quite apparent that you are comfortable with your own decisions and are not comfortable listening to the advice of others.
And that is probably how you developed your guitar building business. I had a look at your site and am impressed with those demo videos.....wish I could play myself but musically I like Blues and Rock & Roll and sing a little as a hobby. I am sure when you started out making guitars you had your share of nay sayers.
One thing different about this website is that you do not get a bunch of pumpers egging you on to bad trades. There is a lot of good advice here.
If your father has passed on (not clear from this post if he is still alive) then I would bet dollars to donuts that her reluctance to sell is because her husband bought the stock and it is an emotional issue with her. Emotion is not often logical but its power is undeniable.
Good luck with your trades
Last edited by Underexposed; September 9th, 2014 at 07:11 PM.
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Be sure, I do listen to advice and I take it into consideration.
But that doesn't always mean that I'm going to follow it.
And I will be quite honest about this part: Right or wrong, good thing or bad, one thing that strongly influences how I decide to take advice is my current track record. Out of 17 logged round trip trades, 14 of them have been profitable to me. That high success rate quite probably IS giving me way more confidence than I'm due. But of the three losers I've had so far, only one of them has occurred in the latter half of the time elapsed since I made my first trade, and I made a fundamental mistake on that one which I still can't believe happened. In that particular case, I made a purchase and the brokerage told me that I'd gotten the stock for a much lower price than I had anticipated getting it for. So with the dramatically reduced apparent cost basis, I sold quickly thinking I'd made a good profit.
in actual fact, I had made a mistake and was looking at a page on the brokerage showing the 20 minute delayed quote,
rather than the real time quote. So...big oops. That cost me a 56 dollar stupidity tax, which, admittedly, is hardly the largest loss I've ever taken but it was the most unnecessary loss I've yet taken.
I freely admit, I could be overconfident. (Seems rather likely, to be honest about it.) I am trying to remind myself of that little factoid every time I even THINK about going to the buy/sell page with my brokerage.
I don't expect every trade to be a winner. Really I don't. But so far my track record is doing nothing to discourage me. I might end up paying for that in a big way. At least I'm being honest with myself. I could very well be overconfident and headed for a bruising lesson. I can't tell you what decisions I'll make tomorrow when the market opens and I get to see what happens in the opening minutes. I hope it turns out to be the correct decision, whatever it turns out to be. I guess we'll know tomorrow evening. Or, maybe, a few days later.
Last edited by Carrerain4; September 9th, 2014 at 10:09 PM.
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So shareholders were not particularly excited about the prospect it seems and it took a bit of arm twisting to gt it passed later on.
4. Finally the Sharpchart show a classic pattern to pumping.....very little relative volume...sudden increase with no company generated news to back it up....price rise...price fall back to low trading volumes...you can see it on July 13, and again on July 27.
So there is no news either for the latest sudden surge in volume.....pumping the stock price over $1.00 is not "news" of any substance.
I am not trying to embarrass you
I am trying to show you that you must develop a methodology for evaluating your trades. So far you are not showing one. Methods are not fool proof and I could well be wrong in my analysis here...but my feelings are not based on my gut.
And I am not suggesting my way is the only way... many here if they were willing could explain their approach. I just happen to be one of the talkative ones
If there is substance behind this rise then the share price is better positioned as the close rests on the UPPER bollinger band now...but I don't like the strength of the Slow Sto , MACD and BBwidth...I believe it will test that support at $1.40 again and it may hold, though it would not surprise me if it were breached
But I could be wrong.
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This is all good for me to read and learn. Thanks for your analysis. I need to start taking analysis more seriously
and until I do, I'm certainly not making the most informed decisions I can be making.
I may lower my price target today, just to take a conservative profit if one should come, and then get out.
I think that would be smart.
Then, start screening for likely candidates for future trades that are on more stable ground.
This would be a good time to ask an important question concerning resistance and support.
I generally understand the basic principle behind it, but the question to ask is, how do you know what time frame to choose
in order to figure out where the resistance and support levels really are?
Look at the chart for the past three days and you might see very different R&S levels than if you looked at a three month chart.
So what do you say about that?
Last edited by Carrerain4; September 11th, 2014 at 09:47 AM.
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Resistance and support lines are independent of time frame. The only difference is that you are looking and perhaps missing important data when you only choose a smaller time frame chart.
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I will use this basic resistance/support diagram. You see there is no time on the axis....it is a pure price movement. The "x" columns represent a rising price, the "o" columns represent a falling price....this is the basic look of the Point & Figure chart (P&F) that I showed before.
If you use such a chart you will see times when the price seems to rise to a certain point then fall back...it is meeting a resistance (the buyers refuse to pay more for the stock)...then the price falls back perhaps as buyer demand lessens ("o" column) until the seller decides enough is enough and refuses to sell for a lower price.
this battle can last minutes (micro resistance/support) or months (macro resistance/support).
When a price is rising in a P&F chart (usually used in macro resistance measurements of a day or more) in an "X" column the tops of "X" columns and the bottoms of "o" columns to the left represent resistance.....
When a price is falling in a P&F chart in an "O" column the tops of "X" columns and the bottoms of "o" columns to the left represent support.....
consider Chart A - When you observe that in a rising column that a price consistently rises to a given point then falls back you can draw a line across the tops of the "X" columns and call it a resistance...same with the falling prices you can draw a line at the bottom of "O" columns.
What is fascinating to me is what happens when a resistance and support is breached. The more points in a resistance/support line the stronger the line is and the more the movement when it is breached...so I look for stocks that are challenging "Berlin wall" type resistances, BUT you wait until it is clearly breached...not before....then as shown in Chart A a resistance becomes a support (a ceiling becomes a floor) and the stronger the resistance the stronger the support it becomes.
Charts B and C show that resistance and support can be diagonal or a combination. Chart C is a bearish formation actually.....think of the battle going on....the buyers are bashing the maximun they will pay lower and lower...eventually the sellers will blink and the minimum price they will accept will fall through that support....but it is not guaranteed...the action takes place at the apex of that triangle .... it will probably fall but could rise...you wait for the decision to be made before buying in.
You can use resistance support on intra day line charts too. Here is an intraday chart for WPCS for the last 5 days
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First as an aside...see how the volumes are getting smaller and smaller after that rise on the day before yesterday....to me that is a sign as a pumped stock...but I digress..
As you can see....I can draw lots of support (green) and resistance (red) lines.....as a chartist these are fascinating to watch.....see what happens when a support or resistance line is breached??
now this has a 15 minute delay in this chart so I don't know what is going on now....but that last triangle looks bearish to me ....so I would say it won't be long if it has not happened already for the price to fall below the $1.45 support line.
Anyway....is this NOT superior to making trades based on gut feel and media rag pumps???
I think so....
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Yeah, this is superior and I'm going to spend some time learning more about it before I make another trade.
On the bright side of things, SEAS hit my 21 dollar per share target today. I think it will push upwards slowly but surely for some time to come. But I have no current investment in SEAS.
Radio Shack has announced that they may declare bankruptcy. Now might be a good time to short it.
Oddly enough, I saw the recent RSH activity, and the news about it, and decided that it was too volatile and unpredictable for me to get in on it. I watched it and just saw a wild and unpredictable mess.
It might be a good shorting prospect, though.
As for my current position in WPCS, I have made the choice to wait it out and see what happens. I believe the day will come when I can get out without taking a loss but don't know how long that may take. It might be tomorrow, it might be a year from now. But I do not wish to turn my current paper losses into real losses at this time. Granted, the value could slide more. It could slide to zero. I accept that risk and choose not to act at this time.
Last edited by Carrerain4; September 11th, 2014 at 04:42 PM.