Usually it is news related. Either to the company or the market. Today was a major data drop in terms of reports and the ECB announcement. Some stocks are more affected by certain market reports then others.
I think it is wise to take a step back and reflect. There is no shortage of advice here..not too much that conflicts with each other but still you must sift through the ashes and keep what you like and discard the rest.
I need a REASON to put money into any given security. And it needs to be more than just a hunch or a feeling.
I think that the majority of the transactions I've made that turned out to be profitable would be easy to justify,
relating to news and events that gave me good reasons to believe that the stock would move upwards.
When SEAS tanked, I fully expected it to rebound somewhat. With no evidence that the company was about to go bankrupt,
and in fact had only reported that it was about 6 percent less profitable than last year, I would never think that it would have
continued to lose value after the first day or so after the news. And though it still has not recovered to my previously set target
of 21 dollars per share or more, I still think it will do so. But rebounding can take time. I believe my decision was rational.
But others, not so much. I've made money on some transactions and can't say WHY the stock moved up instead
of down, and THAT is a situation that I need to address.
I've also lost some money on some stocks that I really expected to climb, and was surprised when it didn't happen,
or, perhaps, in one or two cases, I just went in without a clue and hoped the coin landed heads up.
That's no way to assure consistent returns!
Last edited by Carrerain4; September 4th, 2014 at 10:00 PM.
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hahaha...well so far I was correct about it not reaching $22 yet and that was my prediction....you did well at what you did and cleared a profit.
Now my prediction still holds as far as hitting $22 .... from my TA on the chart I would say it is going to go sideways for a while yet and may drift negative.
I do not doubt that eventually it may rise to $22 or higher....but it is not clear from what I see yet.
NOW here is the difference between you and I....I have a method for evaluating my choices...it is not perfect but my batting average is pretty good. You are making most of your decisions on the basis of gut feeling. Don't take this as being nasty... you are still in an embryonic stage and as you say and I applaud you for it...you have a lot to learn.
And that learning comes slowly...took me 20 years to get where I am now in TA and I am still refining what I do.
NOW I am not saying to copy me...copying someone else is not a key to being good at something. You should be receptive to new ideas and test them...but never accept them as gospel....make your own gospel.
You have shown something that does impress me for your experience. Your picks are quite reasonable so as I see.
WPCS is a case in point...
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I don't particularly like the fundamentals of this company but I do like this chart.
You say you will hold til $1.25....will looking at the chart there is a huge resistance at $1.23...if it makes past $1.23 the next resistance is at about $1.40.
If I were you I would not sell if it makes it past $1.23 and gets to $1.25....I might use a limit stop-loss as I described before and play it to $1.40 if it gets there.
See the difference between us....I have a reason fore my play....I think you are going more on a gut feel.
It takes time but you will eventually replace gut feel with something more substantial.
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I'm still largely a "gut based" trader but not to the extent I was even a few weeks ago. And as I learn more, I become
less "gut based" and more logic based.
Another pick I'm making is my favorite gold miner, IAG, which is now down to 3.61.
Since the company is apparently healthy and has had some good news releases lately, my belief is that the only reason
for its having given up 10 percent in the last week is the recent dip in gold prices. It's tracking the gold price pretty nicely.
I believe that gold prices will be rebounding shortly BUT I'm short on logically explainable reasons to justify that belief, admittedly. However I will say that if I had to find a reason to justify my belief that gold prices will rise soon, it is
because the US economy is showing signs of picking up as indicated by the recent improvement in the unemployment numbers. More people working means more demand for consumer electronics, most of which use some gold in their circuits. More people working also means more people who can afford some luxury items, such as gold jewelry, watches, etc.
When the job market starts looking better, I expect gold prices to follow. Thus, I expect gold mining concerns to prosper as well.
That's nice. It's a very simple way of stating the very thing I'm fighting with.
Up or down? Or stay the same? The price is going to do one, two, or all three of those things soon. Guaranteed.
But, when, which, and how much? Ah, those are the questions that aren't so hard to ask but are not so easy to answer!
I have previously stated my moderate skepticism for trading based on technical indicators. To me it still comes down to the basic question, "What are most of the people who are holding or trading this stock thinking right now and what will they be thinking in the next (seconds, minutes, hours, days, or weeks)?
I don't know how reliable technical indicators can be at predicting whether or not a lot of people want to buy or sell.
But I'm trying to learn them. It's worth it to have EVERY tool in the shed that you can get your hands on. Technical
indicator understanding would quite possibly be a good tool to have.
I have a fair number of market news sources to look at, but it can really be very time consuming to filter through literally hundreds of news releases and articles that hit the site every morning and throughout the day. (Such as at Stock Market Quotes and News : Equities, Indexes, Commodities, Forex on 4-traders.com) It's easy to miss a game-changing news article, particularly when they seem to be releasing dozens of news articles every minute.
WPCS hit my target price of 1.25 and I sold at that point. (2200 shares) It peaked very shortly thereafter at 1.31 but I got my 7 cents per share and the peak was very brief. I honestly think that if I'd hovered over the button and tried to manually hold out for a better price, I would have had a hard time doing it as I'd be inclined to react to a drop of a few cents with "wait and see" in the hopes that it would later go even higher. And in the end I'd probably not have done as well as just picking a price and letting auto execution get it for me.
Granted, it may limit my ability to extend my profits even higher, but I feel safer by taking a personal sense of excitement
and nervousness out of the equation. Trade without passion. Passion gets you in trouble.
I got 6 percent not counting fees. The new larger fee (20 bucks!) made a noticeable dent but it was still rather profitable.