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Newbie seeks new Porsche via day trading. See what happens.


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Newbie seeks new Porsche via day trading. See what happens.

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  #101 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Philly, Pa
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
Your technical analysis is way above my current technicals educational level but I understand what you're getting at.

What I'm looking at is more along the lines of the lowest value points as charted from mid day on the 14th to the present time, which shows a 6+ percent gain that's pretty steady.

I do not expect SEAS to recover to its pre-crash valuation for YEARS to come, if ever, but I believe that it can certainly make 20 to 22 dollars in a short enough time frame that I'm willing to wait for it.

The company WILL have to make the right moves in order to restore significant investor confidence but I believe that
the worst is over, stock valuation-wise, and a slow but generally steady recovery has started and will continue.

I simply believe that the drop in price was an over-reaction and people are realizing it.

Word is that PETA is trying to buy stock in the company. Good. I hope they buy lots, in the quest to acquire a controlling
stake in the company. That will only help to boost stock prices.

And, ideally, the company will come up with all the right answers and the company becomes a champion of the
conservation and animal rights movement while also providing highly attractive educational entertainment programs
and activities that make it a prime target for the vacationing crowd.

There IS a possibility that Sea World and PETA can find common ground and make each other happy in the process.
PETA would like for people to be very well aware of (and supportive of) animal rights (although I may disagree with
the idea that animals HAVE any rights) and Sea World could, if they play it smart, become a prominent educational
resource which serves the dual purposes of preserving and protecting sea habitats and animal rights AND entertain
the public.



one very important piece of advice you should be made aware of:

you are confusing the stock of the company with the company -they are 2 different entities. there are times when the two are positively correlated and there are times when they are not correlated, and there are times when they are negatively correlated. either one can be manipulated, i.e., the companies fundamentals (by mgt) or the stock price (by market makers, short raiders, promoters) when you buy a stock, you own the stock and not the company.


short interest in the stock jumped 70% from 3,000,000 shares to +5,000,000 shares right before they took the stock down & insiders own only 2% of the company- what does that tell you sherlock?

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  #102 (permalink)
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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All I'm trying to say (and last time, it may have been a bit too lengthy) is that I DO appreciate input, advice, and guidance, as I do have a LOT to learn about this and I'll be the FIRST person to say that, but at the same time,
I feel like I'm being well...maybe overwhelmed is the wrong word...but it's close, anyway...with comments from people who are not quite telling me that I'm going to lose my money (and yet, not one of them can predict the future any better than I can) and yet they're not explaining why they believe that, at least, not in terms that are broken down so that a newbie such as myself can easily understand it.

Think I'm doing it wrong? Great. I want to hear your input. But would you please take a minute to explain why you think so, and in simple terms?

For example, pick one technical indicator you trust that says I'm doing it wrong, and take a minute to explain the significance of that technical indicator and why you believe it says that I'm heading in the wrong direction.

Really, that WOULD be appreciated. In fact I think it would be great if various technicals were explained to me
in real world terms, rather than just the Investopedia definitions. Definitions are great but actually having some
insight into how they work in the real world is SO much better.

A specific example: I sort of understand what the Bollinger Bands are. But I don't really know what they're telling me in a real world situation.

Again, I appreciate all input. But I'd appreciate it even more if it was educational. As in, give a reason for why your opinion is what it is.

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  #103 (permalink)
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Carrerain4 View Post
Are my decisions good or bad? That is determined when the outcome of a completed trade has been determined.

I've made a few money losers but the truth is that every losing trade seemed like a bad idea when I did it.

I've also hit my winners on several occasions. If I can simply have more good trades than bad ones, I'll advance.

...

Could you have predicted the 6+ percentage averaged recovery of SEAS over the past week or so, using only your
technical indicators as data sources?

I've been observing and will reply once, and then unsubscribe:

* Whether a decision is good or bad is not determined by the outcome, but rather at the time of the decision. This is the major fallacy in your thinking.
* I'm sure we all know the feeling of having a bad idea and taking the trade anyway, I do for sure. Yet, you bringing it up and focusing on it is likely simply a justification to avoid having to "be wrong."
* Having more good trades than bad ones is nice, but magnitude of good vs bad is ultimately more important in most cases.
* Good traders, IMO, use a variety of data to make a trading decision. The issue is not whether technical analysis or fundamental analysis or some other kind is better than the other; it's that you did not seem to have a process, risk management, or an objective viewpoint about the trade. I know, trust me--it's not easy to be objective.

A common thread that seems to run through your posts is ego. We all have ego, I certainly have mine and have to keep the beast mellow or it destroys me. The themes of "win/loss" and "right/wrong" permeate your language and topics. We all want to win, and I hope you win too. If you want "educational," as you said just now, then realize that you're feeling attacked because you lack the amount of humility to hear what others are saying without immediately becoming defensive. Others who make their living from this business like @tigertrader are laying it on you a little bit because you don't realize that you need "education," not in the form of technical analysis training, but your attitude and ego. Look at post #90 and your language, and the obvious emotional involvement. Look at post #14 and see the euphoria that came with the winning trade. I recognize these because I also make the same mistakes.

It's not personal, and you have to have thick skin in this business. Best of luck to you, sincerely. It's hard for me to write the above paragraph, because I too have ego and constantly make mistakes, and every time I think I know something, the market, or others much better than I am who actually care to help (like tigertrader and @Big Mike) bring me back into line. But please listen to what I'm saying, and know that it's all coming from a sincerely helpful place.

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  #104 (permalink)
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Ultimately you must simply learn from your mistakes. Just try to have the foresight to know you will make them and have enough money left so that in a few years when you have more experience you have money left to do something with it.

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  #105 (permalink)
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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There's a great point, Mike. Nobody can impart their experience to another person. Experience is non-transferrable,
but good advice and education can help a person to learn the lessons less painfully than being uneducated and learning strictly by trial and error.

Yeah, I have an ego. It likes to win. I like to win. I like to be right. I pride myself on (usually) making the right decisions. These are things I have to contend with, and learn to set aside, as part of the process of learning to be a better trader.

I'm seriously trying NOT to offend anybody here. But, yeah, when people are as much as telling me that I'm doing it wrong and not giving me an explanation for their belief, or at least, not giving an explanation that I can really understand at this point, then it does cause some conflict with my aforementioned ego. However, being aware of that, I can
better deal with it and then try to take the advice given in the proper spirit that it was intended to be given in.



I BELIEVE (at this time) that I have some strategies that will work. But time may prove me wrong.

There's a lot I don't understand too well. Let me address one particular concept that has been mentioned on several
occasions: The idea of choosing your entry and exit points. Frankly I don't quite understand the part about choosing
an entry point as to me it seems to be as simple as "Bargain spotted, don't wait for it to climb before buying it.".

That may be a VERY wrong point of view. In fact I think that some people will say it IS a wrong point of view.

So give me alternatives.


Let me tell you what I was (and am still) thinking. And when I'm done, please feel free to critique it and offer
alternatives to me.


When I saw SEAS drop by a third, I personally thought (this is opinion and gut feeling, to be totally honest about it) that it had dropped more than was strictly deserved given the overall picture. THAT is why I decided to buy into it.

I BELIEVE (without evidence) that it will make a significant recovery in reasonable time, but I don't expect it to hit
30 bucks per share again for several years, if ever.

That's why I believe that there's money to be made off of a significant recovery which I have NO evidence is coming. My only evidence is an opinion, a gut feeling. In the short term, the stock is recovering at a rate which, if it follows the projection, will meet my goals in reasonable time.

Now, I've already figured out my most critical goal of all: The break even point. If SEAS hits just 19.12 then I break even. I bought it at 19.08. (385 shares) If you are able to show me that the odds are in fact against me then I'll place a sell order at 19.12 and get out from under it without taking a loss as I certainly can believe that it'll hit 19.12
within the next couple of days. It's gone higher than that since the crash. The trend since then has been steadily upward, according to projection lines drawn on the bottom of the price action.

And if you don't think it'll even go that high, then I can most likely get out of it tomorrow at 19 even for a total loss of 44.80 including commission fees. Which would be an acceptable loss.

I'm not talking about potential profits here, just the odds of breaking even or what it'll cost me to jump out now.


If I'm not asking too much, I would like for one of you to just tell me about one of your own current trades, here in this journal. When you buy something, give me the basics, and don't tell me anything more about it until you close your position. I'd like to watch your play and try to use at as a real world exercise in using and learning technical indicators.

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  #106 (permalink)
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You need to do some work. It seems you only focus on your thread and aren't learning from anything on the site.

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  #107 (permalink)
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
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I agree, there is much on this site that I haven't made much use of yet. I will start going through it and try to learn some things.

Learning this is going to take some time. Nobody masters any new skill overnight. So please bear with me and
try not to get too annoyed as I learn from my mistakes.

While I would not hesitate to compare my guitar building skills to that of anybody, that's a skill I started learning
back in 1985 and I still don't think I've learned everything about it. But yet, building guitars seems rather simple compared to understanding how to reliably make money in the markets.

Skills take time to acquire. But unlike anything I've ever done before, mistakes made in the stock market
can simply make money vanish from my account. That's always a little scary.

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  #108 (permalink)
Melbourne FL, USA
 
 
Posts: 117 since Jul 2014
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I was rather amused to see a CNBC news report this morning that reports that PETA activists are buying SEAS stock in an effort to be able to influence the company's direction. Today's price jumped 41 cents at the opening bell.

Of course I welcome PETA's investment in the stock. Buy it!

Up 44 cents since opening as of this moment...

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  #109 (permalink)
Austin, TX
 
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Carrerain4 View Post
I agree, there is much on this site that I haven't made much use of yet. I will start going through it and try to learn some things.

Learning this is going to take some time. Nobody masters any new skill overnight. So please bear with me and
try not to get too annoyed as I learn from my mistakes.

While I would not hesitate to compare my guitar building skills to that of anybody, that's a skill I started learning
back in 1985 and I still don't think I've learned everything about it. But yet, building guitars seems rather simple compared to understanding how to reliably make money in the markets.

Skills take time to acquire. But unlike anything I've ever done before, mistakes made in the stock market
can simply make money vanish from my account. That's always a little scary.

@Carrerain4 I think most probably started like you picking some stocks etc including me. However, also most of us eventually lost a lot of money. Trading to a degree is largely about habits. You will not make progress by picking up bad habits early using bad methods. These are what will eventually get you even though you may make money at first. I think those trying to warn you here see you driving along with a big smile on your face not realizing there is a big cliff up ahead. We have been there done it and experienced pain because of it. Sounds good to say I am only risking money I can afford to lose until you lose it. Then get more money and lose it. Eventually you dip where should not dip. I wish I had back all the money "I could afford to lose".

You would be better served reading through the site gleaning what other people are doing. Does not mean you will get or need to copy exactly the way someone else does it. I developed my own method but I gleaned and learned a lot from others first. My suggestion would be stop live trading and learn first. You don't have to learn the hard way.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #110 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Carrerain4 View Post
I was rather amused to see a CNBC news report this morning that reports that PETA activists are buying SEAS stock in an effort to be able to influence the company's direction. Today's price jumped 41 cents at the opening bell.

Of course I welcome PETA's investment in the stock. Buy it!

Up 44 cents since opening as of this moment...

PETA buying was known two days ago at least, maybe earlier. SEAS opened higher because FBR upgraded and raised its price target. A big part of your job is to know this information if you have a position.

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