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Newbie seeks new Porsche via day trading. See what happens.
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Newbie seeks new Porsche via day trading. See what happens.

  #91 (permalink)
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Carrerain4 View Post
Today my automatic execution at 4.08 for IAG kicked in and netted me about 2.7 percent profit after expenses.

I'll take that profit percentage every time!

It happened while I was out taking care of some business in town so I was not nursing the computer at the moment.

The absolute peak for it today was 4.10 and I DID say that I think it would hit 4.10 but I opted for a more conservative
target simply because I'm rather conservative. It only spent about 3 minutes at or above 4.08 today so the window
of opportunity for making more than 4.08 was VERY brief and there is no guarantee that my brokerage could have
executed the trade at 4.10 before the opportunity was gone.

SEAS spent most of the day above my buy price of 18.89, which I was happy to see. Barring any unfortunate news, I think that the long climb up toward my target price has begun.

But there WAS news. Some ambulance chasers have announced that they want to investigate the company for possible violations of certain securities laws. The reason: They want to go after SeaWorld to recoup lost stock value on behalf of their investors who held the stock prior to the date of the crash. Which is absurd, as the nature of the stock market is that prices will rise, and prices will fall, and that's just how the game works. If you aren't satisfied with that, stay home and play video games. But these clowns see it as just another way to legally steal money from a company.


Other news: SeaWorld has announced that it will be making changes to the killer whale tanks at its parks, by making
them larger. (And probably other upgrades as well.)

And some animal rights whacktivists are after the company. No doubt it's the same sort of whacktivist that is opposed
to the keeping of dogs and cats as pets.

I don't think any of this is going to significantly affect the recovery of the stock price.

If I'm wrong, my stop will kick in and that'll be that.

Have you watched Blackfish?

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  #92 (permalink)
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Yes, I've seen parts of it. It's a hit piece, carefully constructed by antis to paint the company in a bad light.

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  #93 (permalink)
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Carrerain4 View Post
Yes, I've seen parts of it. It's a hit piece, carefully constructed by antis to paint the company in a bad light.

As an investor in SEAS I suggest watching the whole thing.

SEAS has made mistakes and they will have to change and evolve to survive.

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  #94 (permalink)
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I thought I would give you a chart reading for SEAS

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this is just an example of what happens to a chart when a stock reaches an end of a run

see the outer 2 circles....this is what normally happens when a stock price tends to gravitate towards the 20day moving average....

the center circle is acting much like SEAS is doing right now...it is going sideways with no sign of reaching up to the 20dayMA...I call this a resting position...it is tough to tell the future direction just look at this action.

Note the look of the MACD and BBWidth on May 19....see how they turn away from each other....that is the sign the drop is over...

Now here is SEAS


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See how the share price looks like it was in BAC in the center circle...Now the shape of the BBwidth and MACD is hopeful as they look like they will reverse direction....that is why in a previous post I said that there is a "chance" that you might reach your target of $22/share. And that chance still exists frankly but it is far from a done-deal.

The question is though...is a really good chance....or is it a small chance.

the slow Sto in SEAS is not very promising....you want to see it rise over 30....it is stuck in the mud right now

Here is another chart...

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the CMF underlay...though it is really stuck in the mud is actually very slightly on the bullish side as it has risen a bit...it has a long way to go before it is bullish....but at least it is no going deeper.

the RSI is full on BEARISH...it is stuck in that muck and no indication that it wanted to rise above 30....many people think that such a position (oversold) is a BUY but I am not of that opinion....it is down there for a reason and could possibly stay there for months.

The bottom chart is full on BEAR...there is no sign the red line wants to drift back to the green...the Black ADX line is rising meaning what is happening now (bearish) is a strong trend

Here is the last chart

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This a pretty bearish chart...look how far the share price is below the clouds.......your target of $22.00 is, so far, below the red cloud edge so with recovery that may be doable but it will be a matter of weeks to get there...not days IMHO.....see the thin red/blue lines so far they are running parallel with red on top....this is neutrally bearish...neutral because they are flat and parallel...bearish because red is on top.

The On Bal volume is and CCI are only mildly bearish at present.

Conclusion

You note in this analysis I only mentioned bullish once whereas I mentioned bearish many many times.

Is there a chance of a rebound the way you want??? Sure...I would put it at 30% or less right now...you will probably know for sure in the next 3-5 days.


Last edited by Underexposed; August 21st, 2014 at 12:33 PM. Reason: original post was shuffled {sigh}
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  #95 (permalink)
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Your technical analysis is way above my current technicals educational level but I understand what you're getting at.

What I'm looking at is more along the lines of the lowest value points as charted from mid day on the 14th to the present time, which shows a 6+ percent gain that's pretty steady.

I do not expect SEAS to recover to its pre-crash valuation for YEARS to come, if ever, but I believe that it can certainly make 20 to 22 dollars in a short enough time frame that I'm willing to wait for it.

The company WILL have to make the right moves in order to restore significant investor confidence but I believe that
the worst is over, stock valuation-wise, and a slow but generally steady recovery has started and will continue.

I simply believe that the drop in price was an over-reaction and people are realizing it.

Word is that PETA is trying to buy stock in the company. Good. I hope they buy lots, in the quest to acquire a controlling
stake in the company. That will only help to boost stock prices.

And, ideally, the company will come up with all the right answers and the company becomes a champion of the
conservation and animal rights movement while also providing highly attractive educational entertainment programs
and activities that make it a prime target for the vacationing crowd.

There IS a possibility that Sea World and PETA can find common ground and make each other happy in the process.
PETA would like for people to be very well aware of (and supportive of) animal rights (although I may disagree with
the idea that animals HAVE any rights) and Sea World could, if they play it smart, become a prominent educational
resource which serves the dual purposes of preserving and protecting sea habitats and animal rights AND entertain
the public.

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  #96 (permalink)
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  #97 (permalink)
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I just have one comment:

I appreciate advice and constructive criticism but it has gotten to the point that I feel like I practically have to justify every decision I make to you guys, including (almost) what side of the bed I chose to get out of this morning!

I do not intend for that to continue.

This started as a journal, not an inquisition.

So, either I will stop journaling or the inquisition will stop.

As always, advice and constructive criticism are welcomed but it has gotten entirely out of hand.


Are my decisions good or bad? That is determined when the outcome of a completed trade has been determined.

I've made a few money losers but the truth is that every losing trade seemed like a bad idea when I did it.

I've also hit my winners on several occasions. If I can simply have more good trades than bad ones, I'll advance.


Do YOU make any decisions based on what you believe will happen? Of course you do. But what makes you believe
it? Your technical indicators? Or your knowledge of human nature, the mob instinct, herd mentality, or some other human factor? Or is it random?

NONE of us KNOWS what will happen. I do not believe that you can place all your faith and trust in technical indicators, and I do not believe that you can ever reliably predict human behavior when money is in play.

We are at the mercy of factors we do not fully understand and events we can not completely predict.

This holds true for me and for you.

So ANY trade decision, yours or mine, COULD be questioned until the end of time.

Let's not do that.

If you're planning to pick apart my choices by posting several charts and theories as to why it's not going to work,
do us both a favor and sit down and wait until that feeling passes. I really don't care to have my choices picked at under
a microscope in depth. The outcome will determine if I'm right or wrong, not your charts picked from before I've closed my positions.

I'll post my current trades and the results. Don't try to nit-pick them to death and explain to me how it doesn't
make sense in light of your favorite technical indicators. Frankly I don't particularly care. I'm picking stocks MY way,
for now, and no doubt my methods will evolve with time. The day may come when I base my decisions only on technicals. Or the day may come when I get all my stock tips from the crazy astrologer down the street. Frankly I think both of them can be right and both of them can be wrong.

None of us KNOWS what will happen tomorrow. So let's just accept that fact and watch what happens.



And for those of you who live and die by the technicals, answer me this:

Could you have predicted the 6+ percentage averaged recovery of SEAS over the past week or so, using only your
technical indicators as data sources?


Last edited by Carrerain4; August 21st, 2014 at 08:22 PM.
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  #98 (permalink)
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Carrerain4 View Post
I just have one comment:

I appreciate advice and constructive criticism but it has gotten to the point that I feel like I practically have to justify every decision I make to you guys, including (almost) what side of the bed I chose to get out of this morning!

I do not intend for that to continue.

This started as a journal, not an inquisition.

So, either I will stop journaling or the inquisition will stop.

As always, advice and constructive criticism are welcomed but it has gotten entirely out of hand.


Are my decisions good or bad? That is determined when the outcome of a completed trade has been determined.

I've made a few money losers but the truth is that every losing trade seemed like a bad idea when I did it.

I've also hit my winners on several occasions. If I can simply have more good trades than bad ones, I'll advance.


Do YOU make any decisions based on what you believe will happen? Of course you do. But what makes you believe
it? Your technical indicators? Or your knowledge of human nature, the mob instinct, herd mentality, or some other human factor? Or is it random?

NONE of us KNOWS what will happen. I do not believe that you can place all your faith and trust in technical indicators, and I do not believe that you can ever reliably predict human behavior when money is in play.

We are at the mercy of factors we do not fully understand and events we can not completely predict.

This holds true for me and for you.

So ANY trade decision, yours or mine, COULD be questioned until the end of time.

Let's not do that.

If you're planning to pick apart my choices by posting several charts and theories as to why it's not going to work,
do us both a favor and sit down and wait until that feeling passes. I really don't care to have my choices picked at under
a microscope in depth. The outcome will determine if I'm right or wrong, not your charts picked from before I've closed my positions.

I'll post my current trades and the results. Don't try to nit-pick them to death and explain to me how it doesn't
make sense in light of your favorite technical indicators. Frankly I don't particularly care. I'm picking stocks MY way,
for now, and no doubt my methods will evolve with time. The day may come when I base my decisions only on technicals. Or the day may come when I get all my stock tips from the crazy astrologer down the street. Frankly I think both of them can be right and both of them can be wrong.

None of us KNOWS what will happen tomorrow. So let's just accept that fact and watch what happens.



And for those of you who live and die by the technicals, answer me this:

Could you have predicted the 6+ percentage averaged recovery of SEAS over the past week or so, using only your
technical indicators as data sources?

if you are not here to learn, and if the advice being given to you is going in one ear and out the other. then please tell us why the hell you're here. from what I can tell, your just another clueless newbie , who thinks he knows better than everyone else, & thinks he's going to re-invent the wheel, and turn an undercapitalized account into a fortune. I don't think there is a person on this forum who is interested in hearing you wax on about how much money you're going to make, and you certainly have nothing to offer as far as any fresh insights into trading. so, i for one vote for your abstinence from journaling.


Last edited by tigertrader; August 21st, 2014 at 10:06 PM.
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  #99 (permalink)
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You have to trade your beliefs.

The issue here is your beliefs don't make sense and aren't grounded in any fact based research, just gut feelings.

You can do what you want, but if you continue down this path you will lose your money.

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  #100 (permalink)
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Carrerain4 View Post
I just have one comment:

..............

And for those of you who live and die by the technicals, answer me this:

Could you have predicted the 6+ percentage averaged recovery of SEAS over the past week or so, using only your
technical indicators as data sources?

Hmmmm...that was a long one comment

I was not commenting on a 6% gain....that is trivial....you were claiming you will make something like a $4.00 gain on $18.00 or a 22% gain

An I am generously giving you a 30% chance of doing that right now....not only did I give you that but I did not wave my magic hands and say ***poof*** 30%...I went through a rather detailed TA on the subject.

You know very little about trading, this is obvious. Myself, I have been involved in reading charts for 20 years...I retired 10 years ago and it is my sole income...trading based on my ability to read charts...I even journal it with a pretty real portfolio...where I announce my purchases/sales the day before I theoretically execute the trade... I do know what I am talking about.

I think I was the only person to acknowledge that you did have a chance to reach your picked-out-of-the-air goal. This last post showed how it could occur....but it does not have the greatest odds of being successful...did you want me to lie and say it is a good play??? You could lose that 6% gain in a heartbeat trying to make that 22% gain....

As @tigertrader has said...a lot of very experienced people are giving you good advice....you would not get such advice on other websites....but it is starting to wear thin now...

Don't try to educate us...we don't need it.

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