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SmilingWolf's 2014-2015 Trading Journal
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SmilingWolf's 2014-2015 Trading Journal

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Sacramento, CA USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Favorite Futures: Stocks, Emini S&P, Bund
 
Posts: 4 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

SmilingWolf's 2014-2015 Trading Journal

Beginning Trade Journal Notes: This is the beginning of my entries for the time frame: 7/2014-7/2015. My initial focus is trading
the newly emerged Binary Markets in the Nadex Exchange where I have set up an account. I have also
set up a secondary trading account with an overseas trading brokerage called, StockPair, based on the
island of Cypress. As far as I know, StockPair has been given general approval and credence in the growing
international binary trading community and is free of significant controversy. Of course, I am still doubtful as
to the legitimate standing and professional and ethical consistency of this firm due to lackluster and shady
performance of other overseas binary trading firms. But, I am willing to give them a chance with a small startup
account I have set up with them.

So, I will start with the Binaries and then eventually put my focus on the Futures Markets and the Equities Markets as
well.

The major acid test with any brokerage is:

1) Are they regulated by a governmental entity on an active basis.
2) Do they provide complete accountability for their trade fulfillment and record keeping?
3) Do they provide excellent customer service and not just at the beginning of the trade relationship. Are they
timely in their willingness to respond to questions and to bring problems and potential problems to a speedy resolution.
4) Do they promptly comply with wire requests to send money back? Or, do they provide obstacles, hassles, and
contrived barriers between the client and his money?



The binary markets are a frontier market in the financial
world. As with all frontier markets, there can be a "Dodge City" type of atmosphere of wanton lawlessness
with an equally opportunity for legitimate potential for financial gain. The advantage of obtaining an account/membership with U.S. based
Nadex is clear. Nadex is a federally regulated exchange that must comply with a myriad of laws and regulations
and this provides confidence in the use of this instrument, this platform, this exchange, and this U.S. sanctioned
market.

Clear advantages of binary trading, in my opinion, are....

* Binary option trading like Futures Trading, is a zero sum game. There is a winner and there is a loser. However,
in the case of binary trading, one's risk is fixed and relatively limited in terms of the potential return for each trade.
On the other hand, the risk picture with the Futures Markets is potentially unlimited. Even stop losses can be overun
if the market price velocity is strong enough to overrun all kinds of stops on the way down or up. There is a clear
peace of mind that risk is fixed from the beginning to the end of a trade in the binaries. In a way, the amount one
pays for the binaries is the "margin" amount a Futures/Commodities trader puts up make a trade.
Though I am equally determined to start and grow an account and trade the Futures Markets within the next 8 months,
I plan on starting with trading binaries to get my "sea legs".
* Binary options are a near perfect platform for short term intraday trades that can last anywhere from a few minutes
to hours, even days. For the day trader, this financial instrument is a good one.

I see a massive growth spurt in the popularity of the Binary Options markets on a global scale.


My interest in creating this journal is:

* To provide a platform to record my experience trading the markets. It will hopefully provide me a clear
record of my evolution as a trader.
* To provide a documentation of my day to day intraday trading activity which will contribute to the formation
of my business as a legitimate trading entity and to strictly be in compliance with State and Federal tax laws at
all times.

I am not so much interested in jotting down a bunch of trade statistics and percentages. Of course, I will record
the specifics of my actual trades on a blow by blow, day by day basis. I will also attempt to upload onto this
journal entry blog the pertinent charts to the pertinent markets I am trading. Though from a tech/geeky point of view,
I am rough around the edges.

My focus will be on the markets provided by the binaries on both the Nadex Exchange and StockPair. Nadex offer both binaries options, mainly short term between less than an hour to several days and their markets are mainly options overlaid on the Futures
indices and commodities and the currencies. They also offer what they call Bull Spreads Options plays which I will
make effort at exploring at the earliest possible time. The return potential on Nadex options can be up to several
hundred percent per trade. I am more interested in taking a healthy portion of a price run and not necessarily staying
past my welcome in order to somehow collect a high return each trade.

StockPair offers a Go Long/ Go Short at point of price entry binary option approach as well
as their own version of paired stocks paired off and the trader must decide which stock will outperform the other over
a selected period of time. StockPair time frames vary between 1 minute to a week.

As mentioned in my introduction on this forum, I began my financial market experience working as Comodity Broker/ AP in the Futures/Commodities markets and, a long and frustrating experience losing money for my clients in the Commodity Options Markets, I began to devote my time and energy to the study, analysis, and observation of price movements. From a deeply intuitve point of view, I began to sense from early on, that market price actions were not made up of chaotic and random behaviors. Tops and bottoms were not made of random actions. Underneath price action, there hid a basis of Cause and Effect for tops and bottoms to occur in the markets. It has taken me a number of years of intense devotion to the adequate understanding of these patterns in order for me to begin my trading adventure. I will start with short intraday times frames. My approach
is to consistently apprehend the pending price reversal of various futures and currencies markets, mainly and to exploit my ability to spot these reversal points in time and space before they occur.

My initial trading goal is to begin with 1 option binary trades and then to then to gradually increase of number of

Trading Week

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Sacramento, CA USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Favorite Futures: Stocks, Emini S&P, Bund
 
Posts: 4 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

Latest update


Thursday 7/24/2014

I made 2 trades - one small Nadex Bull Call Spread that was way out of the money option in the JPY. The market did not "reach" down to the Ceiling/Floor area of the option
spread, so it did not go anywhere. This was an example of me getting impatient with trying to jump the timing of my pattern reads and just going in prematurely.


Trade Date: Thursday, 7/24/2014

Entry Trade
Trade Sell/BullCallSpread 100.10-101.60 entered @ 101.76 @ 07:45 PDT 7/24/2014 @ $3.00 + .90cents commision RoundTurn

Your Order has been executed

Your order was executed on: Thu Jul 24 10:00:45 EDT 2014. The details of your matched trade are shown below for your reference:

Trade Details:
Contract: USD/JPY 100.10-101.60 (3PM)
Expiration: Thu Jul 24 15:00:00 EDT 2014
Direction: SELL
Quantity: 1
Price: 101.56

Your positions and balances have been updated. The transaction number assigned to this trade is: 201407241000DJBS00001716O.

If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service at 1-877-77-NADEX.


Exit Trade Sell/BullCallSpread 100.10-101.60 did not make money. 12noon PDT 7/24/2014
Expired @ zero value. New Balance: $672.00 Loss: $4.00
Your Position has settled

Your position in the USD/JPY 100.10-101.60 (3PM) contract was settled on Thu Jul 24 15:00:17 EDT 2014. The details of your settled position are shown below for your reference:

Settlement Details:
Contract: USD/JPY 100.10-101.60 (3PM)
Quantity: -1
Expiration Value: 101.825
Payout Amount: $0.00

Your positions and account balance have been updated accordingly.

If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service at 1-877-77-NADEX.

Sell 07/24/14 10:00:45 1 USD/JPY 100.10-101.60 (3PM) @ 101.56 $-4.00
Fee Payment 07/24/14 10:00:45 1 USD/JPY 100.10-101.60 (3PM) @ 101.56 $-0.90
Settlement Payout 07/24/14 15:00:17 1 SHORT USD/JPY 100.10-101.60 (3PM) @ 101.56 $0.00



My second trade this morning was a 60minute binary option put in the JPY/ same market and time as the one above. It cost $20 which is a beginning amount for Stockpair platform. The JPY did not fall fast enough to be in the money at the end of the 60 minutes.
StockPair

Loss: $20.00 / 0 Commission Cost
Beginning Balance: $464.60 Ending Balnce after trade: $444.60


Ref. Position Open Date Closed Date Buy Payout Profit/ Loss
4019849 USD/JPY▼ 24/7/2014 07:02:37 24/7/2014 08:02:37 20.00 0.00 -20.00 Details


I am getting used to these brief time frames for the binary options for both Nadex and StockPair. I need to stay focused on accurately reading my
timing patterns above anything else and not worry so much about which option and which strike and which strike price to use. I think I just got too
impatient in these beginning trades.

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  #4 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Sacramento, CA USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Favorite Futures: Stocks, Emini S&P, Bund
 
Posts: 4 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

Update Friday July 25th, 2014

Update Friday, July 25th, 2014

I know that to establish my trading business and prove that my Timing Patterns are actually effective with a long term proven, demonstrable track record, I need to initiate trades on a daily basis.

I have still been trying to decide where to place the bulk of my intraday trade focus in the markets. With both Nadex and its Exchange and Trade Platform as well as StockPair and its trade format, they require one to focus on either very, very short multi minute to two hour intraday binary and bull spread moves or to focus on the longer intraday time frames of 2+hr/ 3-5hr/ 6-12hr/ and 12-23 hr trading cycles.

The way these binary option time frames are structured, the very short binary 2 hr options on Nadex and the less than 60 minute binary options on StockPair dictate that the market, forex currencies for example, move in a relatively strong movement in a very short burst of time - from a few minutes left in a 2hr Nadex binary option (or 60min or less for StockPair), the strikes on these 2hr options are 5-10 basis points apart. On the surface, this seems like no a great distance between strikes. However, the markets like forex currencies don't make strong surge movements even at or beyond the span of 5 - 10 basis points when a 2hr binary option and its' time frame can be all too brief. Time decay for these 2hr options rapidly accelerates the second they are bought.

Meanwhile, the longer multi hour options like an option that lasts 5hours / 7 hours/ 10 hours/ 15 hours give the option more opportunity for the market to develop its movement in favor of my chosen option and strike price. This is given the assumption that I have correctly anticipated the price / time reversal and get into the right side of the market and I have chosen the right option and the right strike to exploit the reversal.

The real challenge with exploiting these longer term day options is to remain alert and awake very early in the morning my time which is Pacific Daylight Time. Since my focus is on the currencies and the indices I have to find some way to be alert and awake from 12am - 1am PDT when the European markets start to roll and then the American indices and commodities markets start open and become active in volume around 5am PDT.

My objective is to put the bulk of my focus, time, and energy in exploiting the longer intraday time frame reversals that will last anywhere from a couple of hours to 15hours plus in length. I will need to focus on these markets as early in the markets as possible. Even before 12am PDT, the Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar are moving full throttle in the evenings Pacific Time which can offer further opportunities.

This next trading week, my goal is to establish trades each day on a consistent basis and to obviously make most of these trades profitable. An additional goal is to focus on exploiting as much of the reversal move as possible once in the chosen, targeted market with an option but to not "wear out my welcome" by being the chosen option for too long. I will focus on getting as much of the lion's share of the"kill" as possible but to not overstay my welcome in the option position.

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