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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #791 (permalink)
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I was hoping for a bounce ( trading Z4 . December contract) to 83 to 83.50 area at NY open. My stop loss was way above 84, so a bounce higher would have been nice, but no go.

Had to short with reduced size. Out 81.20 area. Tried long 81.24 area but scratched it as i did not feel comfortable with longs . Now short 82.30 area. Lunch hour , so will be happy with 30-40 ticks.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #792 (permalink)
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I have watched/listened to quite a few of webinars over the years. Without getting into nitty gritty details of their +ve or -ve impact on my trading, one thing i can say without any reservation ( at least for my way of trading) 90% of the presenters gave totally wrong guidelines for stop loss and put me on a long path of cirular motions.

In a nut shell (some said it implicitly and some hinted towards it very strongly) thier entire message was that they or a good day trader has 1:3 risk reward trades with win ratio of 60,70 80 %. They risk 10 ticks and make 40 ticks in a quick burst of 1-5 minutes and on and on.

I am looking at some of the titles

1) Trading the market's edge with the big boys.
2) A road map for trade development.
3) Who are the major market players and what is their impact.
4) Reading order flow to execute trades with precision.
5) Right Place at the right time.
6) Executting trades from the edge with precision.
7) A glipmse into the realities of professional trading.

Majority of the webinars are allotted 60 minutes time frame. First presenters will waste 10-15 minutes of time with BS background info. and then get into the ritual of pointing out that during such a short time they really can not get into details etc. All i know in 60 minutes a good presenter can provide more details than most attendees are looking for.

The only one i listen to now from time to time are JIM DALTON/ BRETT STEENBARGER webinars

NOTE: 90% number is of all the webinars i have listened to. Obviously, i am talking about a relatively small universe because i have no idea how many are out there. The one i have listened to are the same characters which most of the traders are aware of because same names come up again and again.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #793 (permalink)
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NG- not a good day. Should have paid attention to Gap down in NG .



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #794 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Had to short with reduced size. Out 81.20 area. Tried long 81.24 area but scratched it as i did not feel comfortable with longs . Now short 82.30 area. Lunch hour , so will be happy with 30-40 ticks.

Nice work on that short from the open.

The reversal in CL around 81 was difficult for me to recognize in real time - kept seeing places to short while CL climbed from 81 back the low 82's. The only thing I can see was that the Euro was grinding up all day and that this may have kept a lid on the downtrend in CL. Am I just daydreaming or would you agree?

As always, thanks for being such a consistent and useful poster.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #795 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
Nice work on that short from the open.

The reversal in CL around 81 was difficult for me to recognize in real time - kept seeing places to short while CL climbed from 81 back the low 82's. The only thing I can see was that the Euro was grinding up all day and that this may have kept a lid on the downtrend in CL. Am I just daydreaming or would you agree?

As always, thanks for being such a consistent and useful poster.

Thanks Surly,

Try to look at CL from a rotational point of view. It rotates 150-200 ticks on 70% of trading days. You can pick up CL daily chart from any day over last 4 years and this what you will see on 70% of trading days.

NOTE: Point #1 on chart got cut off. 1) For me there are ONLY 2 refrence points for the time being . 84 and 79. If i am short my stop loss is above 84 and if i am long my stop loss is below 79.

CORRECTION: Chart for #2 should read " Once price went above 81.40 ( chart note reads 82.40) after touching 80.80, i wanted to go long on pullback but CL never pulled back.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #796 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Thanks Surly,

Try to look at CL from a rotational point of view. It rotates 150-200 ticks on 70% of trading days. You can pick up CL daily chart from any day over last 4 years and this what you will see on 70% of trading days.

Thanks - yes, that is a good enough reason. Lately we've had much bigger ranges so it seems the possibility is higher for larger ranges to occur. But the probabilities almost certainly still favor ranges within that 150-200 tick range.

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  #797 (permalink)
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Thanks - yes, that is a good enough reason. Lately we've had much bigger ranges so it seems the possibility is higher for larger ranges to occur. But the probabilities almost certainly still favor ranges within that 150-200 tick range.

There needs to be a catalyst for ranges to be outside ATR. There is none for the time being. More importantly, even if we do not know the catalyst, the sell/buy bars ( i look at 5 minutes) of the day needs to show the way.

If i see a 10K sell bar, i know we are going down. In that case i do not mind to initiate a new short right there. For example, if today 81 level was broken with FORCE, i would have initiated a new short right there.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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I do not trade Forex but following artice from bloomberg highlight's one of the key reasons for making some changes in my trading method. Markets can easily be manipulated around areas which most traders consider support/resistance ( for day trading). By adding a stop loss around those areas we guarantee that firms can pay BILLIONS in fines and still thrive in their respective business.

" By Richard Partington Oct 20, 2014 7:00 PM ET 8 Comments Email Print


The cost for banks to settle probes into allegations traders rigged foreign-exchange benchmarks could hit as much as $41 billion, Citigroup Inc. (C) analysts said.

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) is seen as probably the “most impacted” with a fine of as much as 5.1 billion euros ($6.5 billion), Citigroup analysts led by Kinner Lakhani said yesterday, estimating the Frankfurt-based bank’s settlements could reach 10 percent of its tangible book value, or its assets’ worth.

Using similar calculations, Barclays Plc (BARC) could face as much as 3 billion pounds ($4.8 billion) in fines and UBS AG (UBSN) penalties of 4.3 billion Swiss francs ($4.6 billion), they wrote in a note first sent to clients on Oct. 3.

Authorities around the world are scrutinizing allegations that dealers traded ahead of their clients and colluded to rig currency benchmarks. Regulators in the U.K. and U.S. could reach settlements with some banks as soon as next month, and prosecutors at the U.S. Department of Justice plans to charge one by the end of the year, people with knowledge of the matter have said.

Spokesmen for Deutsche Bank, Barclays and UBS declined to comment on the Citigroup estimates.

The Citigroup analysts made their calculations using a Sept. 26 Reuters report that the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority settlements could include fines totaling about 1.8 billion pounds. They derived their estimates for how high fines could go in other investigations from that baseline, using banks’ settlements in the London interbank offered rate manipulation cases as a guide.


Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg
Deutsche Bank AG is seen as probably the “most impacted” with a fine of as much as 5.1... Read More
“Extrapolating European and, more importantly, U.S. penalties from a previous global settlement suggests to us a total potential global settlement on this key issue,” they said in the note.

Cooperation Rewards

U.K. authorities will probably account about $6.7 billion of fines across all banks, according to the Citigroup analysts. Other European investigations will account for $6.5 billion. Penalties in the U.S. cases could be about four times greater, hitting $28.2 billion.

The Citigroup analysts didn’t take into account the possible effect of banks’ collaboration with investigators. That can have a big impact on the size of the fines, lowering and even wiping out a penalty in some cases.

UBS and Barclays saw $4.3 billion worth of antitrust fines waived by European Union authorities in December in exchange for their early and full cooperation. Six others were fined 1.7 billion euros in that case, which involved rigging euro and yen interest rate derivatives.

UBS has sought leniency in exchange for handing over evidence of misconduct to U.S. antitrust investigators in the foreign-exchange probes, and was also the first to step forward to cooperate with the EU, people with knowledge of the matter have said."



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Why on my short around 82.48 i cut down position size yesterday? becuase of probability of Monkey jumping higher as it did this morning. Well, yesterday i cut down size, today i added back size from the short size. Still holding some shorts, will look for longs around 81.70 to 82 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Yesterday CL sold off from 82.64 area to 80.80 area with usual SONG and DANCE in between. Today, it went upto 83.29 area and after an hour down to 82.30 and counting- a good example of video game.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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