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COMMON SENSE

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  #701 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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It's good to hear what experienced traders like Steve Grasso, Guy Adami, Arthur Cash, Brian Kelley etc. One does not have to agree/disagree with them but i find their collective experience filter very helpful.

Just imagine we were not in internet age and could not get a job on NYSE, COBE trading floor. At least i will pay an ARM and a LEG to hear what these guys or guys like him are thinking. Just beacuse we have all this info. for free , it amazes me how some traders take it for granted and do not see value of resources like such. Seems like same attitude at futures.io (formerly BMT) and other resources like futures.io (formerly BMT).

I wish Mark Fisher come more often on TV but will take whatever i get from traders like him.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #702 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Analysis Paralysis all over the map by traders of all sorts. More analysis , more trades, less hold time and less potential gains. In general more lines on a traders chart, more tools at his/her disposal, more scared typically a trader is with imagining /seeing things which at the end of the day sure look like that a trader was day dreaming without even knowing it. I have used every kind of gadget out there and day dreamed all day long and still do- not as much as i used to.

I had 5 trades on in different instruements so that i do not get just focused on watching price going up and down. Lot of room for improvement but the whole week has been a good one. I was planning to go on vacation last Friday but my friend got asked to postpone his vacation for work related issue.

I should call his boss and THANK him.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #703 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Risk Management RULE # 1.

1) Trade with the trend - wide enough stop loss to avoid randomness.

2) Do not trade counter trend but if do- tight stop loss.

Attached chart shows my short in ZS since yesterday with appropriate stop loss handled a news event properly and gave me enough time to figure out what the hell is going on. In my experience following are some of the key reasons for traders failures.

1) can not figure out a trend.

2) Improper use of stop loss.

3) Not properly funded.

4) Over trading and to top it off trading with leverage.

and many others we all are familiar with. I have talked with many traders over last couple of years and in my estimation they are and can be good traders except they do not have any staying power. Everyone should keep a full time job and then trade small and without FEAR. Once a trader have enough trading capital and can trade without FEAR, full time trading is a very good choice. I just do not understand fascination people have about being full time traders. Then we have another kind- the ones who are close to retirement or are retired but want to day trade. Why? because they are not happy with returns they are getting from mutual funds etc. It's just crazy out there and i am surprised ( to put it mildly) when i talk with other traders and hear their stories.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #704 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
Risk Management RULE # 1.

1) Trade with the trend - wide enough stop loss to avoid randomness.

2) Do not trade counter trend but if do- tight stop loss.

Attached chart shows my short in ZS since yesterday with appropriate stop loss handled a news event properly and gave me enough time to figure out what the hell is going on. In my experience following are some of the key reasons for traders failures.

1) can not figure out a trend.

2) Improper use of stop loss.

3) Not properly funded.

4) Over trading and to top it off trading with leverage.

and many others we all are familair with. I have talked with many traders over last couple of years and in my estimation they are and can be good traders except they do not have any staying power. Everyone should keep a full time job and then trade small and without FEAR. I just do not understand fascination people have about being full time traders. Then we have another kind- the ones who are close to retirement or are retired but want to day trade. Why? because they are not happy with returns they are getting from mutual funds etc. It's just crazy out there and i am surprised ( to put it mildly) when i talk with other traders and hear their stories.


NOTE: Sorry for sour tone but i just talked with someone who failed combine for 5th time. I told him i will never pass combine. That program has restrictions too tight. He keeps blaming himself and circle continues.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #705 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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As usual everyone is thinking about what will market do on Monday, next week etc. If bull is still alive or close to getting slaughtered. Internet has given us access to wonderful resources, online forums, twitter etc. to get a sense as to what's out there.

We just have to make sure we do not end up at the deep end of the pool with analysis/paralysis. Traders who are flexible, trade collective judgement of the market vs day dream are taking advantage of intra day moves rather than worrying about why this happened and did not happened. Mutual fund houses, Money managers etc. with unlimited resources comapred to retail traders are not having good year for most assets so far. Some of the so called best research on street is basically available for free ( i have small accounts at multiple borkerage house JPM, MS, BAC etc) and for day trading where attached chart changes it's direction from one day to the next- they are USELESS.

If there is a service out there which will tell me a day in advance what this chart will look like once trading gets going- i will pay attention. Otherwise as Mark Fisher says " NEXT".



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #706 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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shorting into bounce.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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CL keeps giving if one is trading with the trend. Lot of traders did not wanted to short CL at 85.80 to 86.30 area because all their indicators were pointing up move. They were more focused as to how could they have gone long at 84.90 area to capture 30-40 ticks to 86.30 area. Going long at new lows area made sense but not at intra day highs.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #708 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Bounces.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Rotational day. Financials Green, technology Red- a mixed bag. With Financials being +ve, down side is capped for the day.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Been stalking Orange juice for some time.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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dreams of clean bullish trend for CC got broken. Out flat.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Short TF 1062, 1064 and now after 1 hour of SONG and DANCE , things looking up as TF hits 1053. Since internals are mixed at best, happy with 5- 7 points



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Bob Pasini of CNBC has been covering markets for 15+ years. He had all kinds of reasons as market ES, TF, NQ etc were at ORH. Now into close all he could muster for this sell off off ORH that " it's impoosible to model EBOLA effect" (lol).

There have been all kinds of clowns at CNBC today. Sometimes in between clowns CNBC have some serious analysis but not today.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
Short TF 1062, 1064 and now after 1 hour of SONG and DANCE , things looking up as TF hits 1053. Since internals are mixed at best, happy with 5- 7 points


TF was all looking bullish at 1064- even i got spooked and had to cut down size. Analysis like today is holiday and there will not be much action- was thrown out of the window.

Long term investors " this is your buying opportunity". Same guy at CNBC said the same thing last Thursday, Friday. As market bounced this morning he was pounding the table to buy, buy. I wonder if he is still holding his longs? He closed his remarks by saying it felt like this morning lows was a flush down but now he is saying it was not a flush down. He wants one more flush down.

All i can say, we will be waiting whenever FLUSH DOWN comes.

NOTE: I am not sure why i keep trading TF when since last Thursday NQ has been the instruement to trade. TF already been beaten down quite a bit.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 robert880 
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What are you seeing in the NQ that you like vs the TF?


mfbreakout View Post

NOTE: I am not sure why i keep trading TF when since last Thursday NQ has been the instruement to trade. TF already been beaten down quite a bit.


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 mfbreakout 
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Shorting bounce within macro bearsih trend. Will hold overnight.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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robert880 View Post
What are you seeing in the NQ that you like vs the TF?

If we look at composition of NQ vs TF- there are significant differences in terms of the companies represented in each index.
TF - small caps stocks have been leading the way to the down side for weeks now. They are at major support and thus intra day opportunities are less. TF has been less Volatile vs NQ.
NQ- finally joind the party to the downside last week after one of this index sub sect ( chip stocks to be more specific) got hammered big time. These stocks were down 5, 7 and 10% on friday.
In summary i should have been trading NQ since last thursday. I am taking the same risk, same hold time but twice the returns with NQ vs TF. NQ has more air which needs to come out of it vs TF.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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ES down 149 points over 17 trading days, nothing to worry about. I agree. But i do not like to pick bottoms.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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If ONLY financials were aligned properly at highs. It could have been a monster day but they were not. One has to follow the RULES. Financials are not major part of TF, NQ etc. I use it as an intra day sentiment indicator. Big cap financials stocks is where big money has been hiding. When they start selling these mega financials- game is ON.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I want biggest, green candle/ candles to short right in her face. ONLY within macro bearish trend. Not everything is what it seems. On short term time frame it's easier to manipulate price behavior.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 alejo 
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today i was trying to applying the things i am learning from you, and i am very happy
internals, stockmap, trend D/ 60min, big stops,



shorting and add in pullbacks,



thanks T

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #722 (permalink)
mapq
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(The AMF, France’s financial markets regulator, has begun an online publicity campaign to increase public awareness of the risks of trading in the forex market, following the growing number of complaints from investors and many advertisements for investors to trade in the online foreign exchange (forex or FX) market. For the study, AMF questioned authorised participants making up a very significant of the CFD and forex market in France. It is the first reliable evaluation of the returns of individuals investing in forex and/or CFDs. Lessons drawn from the study confirm the danger of investing in this market for the public. In four years, the percent of clients losing money for all providers combined is nearly 89%, while the average loss per client was nearly €10,900 between 2009 and 2012. Over the four years, 13,224 clients together lost nearly €175 million, while the remaining 1,575 clients earned a total of €13.8 million. In addition to the great majority of losing clients and the losses suffered, the study shed light on a behavioural phenomenon: individual investors learn little over time. Indeed, it appears that the most active and regular investors see their losses mount over time. “Our study demonstrates that even with duly authorised intermediaries, the majority of individual investors lose money, sometimes more than their initial investment because of the financial instruments that are available,” explains Benoît de Juvigny, AMF Secretary General. While online trading in the foreign currency market with regulated operators leads to losses for the majority of clients, individual investors must also be wary of the efforts of fraudsters in the market. Numerous firms operate in France without the authorisations required to offer services to the public. The AMF receives many complaints from individual investors seduced by enticing promises in numerous Internet advertisements. The serious façades of some websites may actually be hiding frauds. Using impressive marketing, these firms steal the money of clients who find they have limited or no recourse due to the location of fraudsters, who are usually abroad. The AMF has taken legal action to block access for Internet users in France to certain sites offering services without proper authorisation. On 15 September 2014, the Court of First Instance of Paris agreed to this request for the first time. “We laud this decision, which constitutes a new measure initiated by AMF in our battle against this phenomenon. However, beyond this legal step, we are convinced that the best weapon remains prevention,” explains Natalie Lemaire of the AMF’s Retail Investor Relations Directorate. “Foreign exchange trading is a market that individual investors should avoid. This is our conviction and the purpose of our efforts today.”
- See more at: AMF warns of the dangers of forex market trading for individual investors.)
Remember ever, dont forget the good r:r.
Happy pips to all.

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 alejo 
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mfbreakout View Post
ES down 149 points over 17 trading days, nothing to worry about. I agree. But i do not like to pick bottoms.

what do you mean that is obvious?

i do not understand , if ths vix go high, index down, it look obvious that index down, more risk, then most people think mkt go down.
is if obvious thna the mkt go down, then the opportunity is long?

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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 sandptrader 
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Get some of this NQ @ mfbreakout
CL had some Nice Set ups also.
If i could only hold on longer to the Trades
i know what you say about too tight of Stop Lose, as i am working on.

NQ is doing it's thing this morning

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 mfbreakout 
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I will keep harping about using stop loss wide enough to give trade breathing room and allowing trader enough time to think while in the trade. Even i can not help myself from time to time using stop loss not based off market structure but based upon fear because i have too big of a position size.

Enclosed trade about my short in NG this morning is a good example. I am at a level where i know i am doing something wrong and thus can correct it quickly. It always happens. NG stopped me out and then reversed exactly from that point and dropped 2.5%. If i had not reshorted NG again with proper stop loss, i will be looking at NG dropping 2.5% and cursing everyone in the world that my stop loss was picked. That's why i place stop loss where it getting picked up really means change in market structure.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 alejo 
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trade1
starting whith "shorting on the bull faces"


trade2
with care because was counter trend i start small and add


stop loss 40points(and with the atr of today i will need more i think)

without exceeding 5lots i lock 255p today




thank you T mfbreakout! you have open my eyes

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 mfbreakout 
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It pays to HOLD.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 alejo 
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It pays to HOLD.

i have fear to loss the green profit, and instead of take risk on the profit and wait to let it grow up, (as i wait for my losers to come back...), i want to exit quick...

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 mfbreakout 
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alejo View Post
what do you mean that is obvious?

i do not understand , if ths vix go high, index down, it look obvious that index down, more risk, then most people think mkt go down.
is if obvious thna the mkt go down, then the opportunity is long?

Hi Alejo,

My comment was a tongue in cheek comment. Point i was trying to make one can not just look at one of the variables which impacts market and make a forecast. You know my thinking about forcast " It's not allowed and it's not needed".

A fellow trader who i talk to from time to time can not help himself from making forcasts as to what will market do tomorrow etc. He did not short at all as ES dropped 100+ points over last 2 weeks. Yesterday, he emailed me a weekly chart with trend lines, channels saying that long held trend line is broken and he is no longer bullish.

He is no longer bullish and we have TF rip 2.4% today? What good this analysis is for? I say it's nothing but DAY DREAMING. We have tools like market internals and we decide what to do based on that. We like to keep it SIMPLE.



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 mfbreakout 
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alejo View Post
i have fear to loss the green profit, and instead of take risk on the profit and wait to let it grow up, (as i wait for my losers to come back...), i want to exit quick...


It will come in steps. You are one of the few traders who have started using wide stop loss. This is the first step. It will give you time to think about trading vs worrying about stop loss. Once you get comfortable with stop loss you will start getting bigger and bigger targets. Now you are in the game. With Mickey Mouse stop loss a trader is not even in the game.

NOTE: Just to be clear, not every set up calls for a 150 ticks wide stop loss for CL as an example.



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 mfbreakout 
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How to short at lows? SIMPLE answer is that by shorting one is within trend and just because price bounces 30-40 ticks in between does not mean there is buying under way. That's why MA and other indicators traders get SURPRISED every day. A certain number of bounces are purposefully given to counter trend traders to facilitate shorts and just as their indicators say buy, buy- RUG gets pulled.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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How to short at lows? SIMPLE answer is that by shorting one is within trend and just because price bounces 30-40 ticks in between does not mean there is buying under way. That's why MA and other indicators traders get SURPRISED every day. A certain number of bounces are purposefully given to counter trend traders to facilitate shorts and just as their indicators say buy, buy- RUG gets pulled.


Cover 81.72 and still holding 1 car short.

Wow- I wish i had known before hand that this kind of selling will come today, i would have put on some size behind this short.

As traders we only sure about couple of things, rest is out of our control.

1) WE know the trend. We should ONLY trade with the trend. If counter trending just be aware of what's under way.
2) We do not know when and how macro trend will unfold. CL has been on a pretty clear path to the down side. We just do not know which days moves to the down side will be bigger than others.
3) Any bounces against the trend are shortable.
4) Algos/ HFT etc can not out smart a trader as long as a trader is trading with the trend.
5) Drawing up support against trend with hopes of picking bottoms and going long is a 100% uselesss exccerise.
6) Efforts should be used to come up with resistance levels to short into bounces.
7) Learn to smile as price jumps against trend and be ready to short right in front of biggest counter trend green candle.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Why i was not sure to short today at NY open?

A) I was praying for CL to jump 50-80 ticks at NY open so that i can short it. But my prayers did not get answered. What to do? CL was so weak right at NY open. I finally got tired for CL to jump and shorted it around 85.07 area. It's esier to short when lot of traders are lured in from the buy side. When there is NO JUMP, price goes back and forth and takes all the time in the world to do what it wants to do- like CL did this morning.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Surprised.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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Surprised.

That does not reflect TF & NQ right ...mostly Green , but Indices i mention are down.

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 sandptrader 
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What do you think they are doing......Hedging/Covering ?

Facing new oil glut, Saudis avoid 1980s mistakes to halt price slide

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/facing-oil-glut-saudis-avoid-1980s-mistakes-halt-005348902--finance.html

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 mfbreakout 
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That does not reflect TF & NQ right ...mostly Green , but Indices i mention are down.

Indices are made of some of these stocks. TF moved from Globex low of 1046 to 1072 ( 26 points) in a bearish macro trend. As price was moving beyond 1070 area, i started smiling and got ready to short on reversion to the mean set up.

Based on stocks plus market internals, i am just surprised that TF pulled back that much ( basically 19 points). I took long around 1054, out some 1059 and holding rest. If stocks were not green along with internals, i would not have tried long on this pullback.



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 alejo 
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Surprised.

i am using, and i realized that is delay 20 min, maybe go down and map green ...

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 mfbreakout 
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What do you think they are doing......Hedging/Covering ?

Facing new oil glut, Saudis avoid 1980s mistakes to halt price slide

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/facing-oil-glut-saudis-avoid-1980s-mistakes-halt-005348902--finance.html

Hi Sandptrader,

It's difficult to read into others people action. I try to keep it SIMPLE. I will stop shorting crude if and when crude gets a bid for 2-3 days in a row on massive volume in one straight line. Till then, i will not mind shorting it even if it's trading at $70 or lower. We are PRICE ACTION traders. So far based on PRICE ACTION , CL is going down.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 alejo 
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What do you think they are doing......Hedging/Covering ?

Facing new oil glut, Saudis avoid 1980s mistakes to halt price slide

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/facing-oil-glut-saudis-avoid-1980s-mistakes-halt-005348902--finance.html

the article talk cl at 90 and the producer can support prices as low as 80....

today is old ....

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 mfbreakout 
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alejo View Post
i am using, and i realized that is delay 20 min, maybe go down and map green ...

Stock mapper is just one tool. I also have about 50 big cap stocks in real time plus market internals to go by.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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After a flush down- traders trading with the trend can ONLY hope for one thing- a BOUNCE to reshort. Anyone coming up levels of so called support against a trend till it is backed by PRICE ACTION , does not know a thing about trading. I learned my lesson couple of years ago when CL was trading similarly.

NOTE: Covered some around 80.48 and added back to shorts as CL bounced from 80.37 to 80.98 area.



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 mfbreakout 
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It does not matter which instruement is one trading- concepts and context are the same. Finally shorts in PL are working..



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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ONLY shorts in TF and holding for 2 hours. Same mistake again. Should have been trading NQ instead of TF. More bang for buck with NQ since last Thursday.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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If there is a day where stop loss needs to be wide and one has to be patient- it's today. When P&L is jumping up and down to the tune of 50 ticks and one has to HOLD and ignore Jumping jack- it takes CONVICTION to do that. Only way i know to ignore NOISE is to trade with the trend.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I have not taken any longs in CL and TF since 9 am eastern time. ONLY shorts. Obviously there were some long trades but not for me. Another thing i controlled is to add to my position during lunch hour ( 12 to 1 pm). I just held my shorts till i got paid and still holding in CL and TF. Added to TF shorts around 1051 after lunch.



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 alejo 
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i entry here planning to hold it...and thinking short in abounce...

but i could not


could be worked...

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 mfbreakout 
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No longs in TF. Gave up all the gains from ealier short as i kept shorting when TF moved from 1045 to 1075. How? Not a pretty day but got the job done.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Same thing with Crude. No longs . All shorts. Luckliy no significant intra day drawdowns. I probably had best 4 days of CL trading in 4 years. Prior to making chnages in my trading days like last 4 days i will just be a SPECTATOR. Too afraid to do anything or if i took a trade , it was just successful due to random nature of my trade. I did not think my successful trades were random at the time. If i got 30 ticks within a 400 ticks opportunity, i was happy. Now, i see it was just nonsense.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Same thing with Crude. No longs . All shorts. Luckliy no significant intra day drawdowns. I probably had best 4 days of CL trading in 4 years. Prior to making chnages in my trading days like last 4 days i will just be a SPECTATOR. Too afraid to do anything or if i took a trade , it was just successful due to random nature of my trade. I did not think my successful trades were random at the time. If i got 30 ticks within a 400 ticks opportunity, i was happy. Now, i see it was just nonsense.


CL is still moving to me. Cover some. Looking into 3 options 1) Go flat and reshort on break of 80. 2) Go flat. Go long for a bounce from 80. 3) Reshort into bounce off 80. I really like #3.




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 mfbreakout 
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No longs in TF. Gave up all the gains from ealier short as i kept shorting when TF moved from 1045 to 1075. How? Not a pretty day but got the job done.


Held 2 cars short from yesterday. Shorted NQ this morning. US traders just tend to focus on US markets with nonsense comments like that S&P is down only 5% over 10 days etc., no need to panic. We do not panic, we just trade. How about Germany, UK etc being down day after day 2%, 3% , 4%. World is a village- at least when it comes to trading. Pretty soon i will start trading DAX and FTSE.

NOTE: Will be looking at APPL earnings on October 20th to gauage market sentiment. It's just one factor and lot of money is in it. If safe heavens start getting liquidated - WATCH OUT.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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"1) Go flat and reshort on break of 80." We got #1 hand dealt.

where to short , how high it will bounce, where would be stop loss? No easy anwers. My stop loss is above 82.50 area.
Short 80.68 in case CL just get sold. Cover some. NY open will tell give clues as to how much down move is in the cards or there is a bounce brewing up underneath. Every trade as an element of Danger, some more than the others.




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 mfbreakout 
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I have to give credit to a fellow trader who will not short E-mini till his weekly support/channel was broken- E-mini fell off about 110 points before he emailed me his chart and said he is no longer bullish . He has been shorting every bounce in E-mini since then and has done very well. In the end we all trade our CONVICTIONS. NO convictions = Trading randomness= Mickey Mouse trades.

I actually got more confident in shorting NQ, TF etc. after i saw him going shorts over last couple of days. It helps to see what other traders are looking at/doing.



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 mfbreakout 
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TF. Basically nothing so far. Still holding shorts after 2 hours. Average short price around 1076. Same for NQ holding shorts from 3754 area.Will scale out on 4-5 points pullbacks but i am not taking longs at ORH area.



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 mfbreakout 
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I am glad i focused more on NQ today. It's tough to hold for long hours and see P&L turn from GREEN to RED, RED to GREEN. I try not to look at P&L but when you are loaded with position size it's hard not to look at P&L.



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 mfbreakout 
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CC is going NUTS due to EBOLA. No clear patterns though except very wide stop loss and then directional bet with long hold time.



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 mfbreakout 
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Wow, wow-- One has to be prepared when something happens with CL like it did today. 99% of the time i am against trades which require QUICK THINKING and HANDS. However, one should leave room for 1%. Over 4 years i have seen something like this probably 5 times. I am glad i had Carlos Danger video on my mind this morning.



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 sandptrader 
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Wow, wow-- One has to be prepared when something happens with CL like it did today. 99% of the time i am against trades which require QUICK THINKING and HANDS. However, one should leave room for 1%. Over 4 years i have seen something like this probably 5 times. I am glad i had Carlos Danger video on my mind this morning.

Looks like it hit the Down Trendline...i was not watching CL today until you posted this...Great Trade @mfbreakout.

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 mfbreakout 
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I am glad i focused more on NQ today. It's tough to hold for long hours and see P&L turn from GREEN to RED, RED to GREEN. I try not to look at P&L but when you are loaded with position size it's hard not to look at P&L.

Market internals mixed at best. Added to shorts in NQ around 3782. So far have not been paid the way i want but enough while keeping some shorts on. The set up is reversion to the mean pullback. I see plenty of RED stocks across the board including BIG CAP technology names. Since 10 am nothing but shorts with some scaling out in between to keep the balance. I am not expecting NQ to fall out of bed but 20-30 points should be good enough for a pullback.
lets take example of CL today. It moved from 80 to 84.80 area, about 480 ticks. this is way beyond ATR within a macro bearish trend and it's was an easy short per my rules.



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 mfbreakout 
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For ACD traders- the long set up was one of Mark Fisher classic. A up against extreme sell off/ -ve price action. Bad news good price action.



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 mfbreakout 
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Market internals mixed at best. Added to shorts in NQ around 3782. So far have not been paid the way i want but enough while keeping some shorts on. The set up is reversion to the mean pullback. I see plenty of RED stocks across the board including BIG CAP technology names. Since 10 am nothing but shorts with some scaling out in between to keep the balance. I am not expecting NQ to fall out of bed but 20-30 points should be good enough for a pullback.

Out flat 3752..



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 madLyfe 
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For ACD traders- the long set up was one of Mark Fisher classic. A up against extreme sell off/ -ve price action. Bad news good price action.

for CL you mean?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
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 mfbreakout 
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Wow, wow-- One has to be prepared when something happens with CL like it did today. 99% of the time i am against trades which require QUICK THINKING and HANDS. However, one should leave room for 1%. Over 4 years i have seen something like this probably 5 times. I am glad i had Carlos Danger video on my mind this morning.


Today CL price action is a good example of stop loss. I was short from 81.90 and added at 82.30 with a stop loss above 83. I saw buying rushing in, i am not going to just sit there and see if 83 is hit. At minmum i had to flatten and if set up lines up- go long.

For last 4 days, there were no buyers and stop loss worked like a charm. I had shorted multiple times over last 4 days around 82.10, 82.30 etc with massive gains. Today price action called for to lift stop loss, get out of short and try long.
Of course over last 4 days, my stop loss could have hit but i did not see any reason to lift stop loss and held on to shorts. Now for next short set up whenver that lines up, stop loss will be 130 ticks above 95 area and that's wher it was on my short from 84.15 area.



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 mfbreakout 
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madLyfe View Post
for CL you mean?

YES.



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 mfbreakout 
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GOOG missed earnings and revenue estimates. Hum-----. APPL on tap next week. Holding some shorts in TF. Damn TF has not pilled back at all. Short from 1082 area. Today was a good lesson for me to first hand get a feel of difference between NQ and TF. Both have different composition in terms of stocks within them and they react differently when their major compnents have spot light on their back. For NQ it's GOOG, FB, MSFT , AAPL and the likes. I knew off the difference between them but did not had a good feel as to how they trade. Today NQ kept puuling back nicely with 30-40 points off highs. I kept adding to my shorts in TF hoping for a decent pullback but no go.



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 mfbreakout 
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How i set up a trade during globex session. I typically do not place trades during globex session. They generally have not worked for me. Lately, there have been expanded volatility in CL, therefore i am taking trades to take advanatge of the volatility.



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 robert880 
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@mfbreakout I know you mention it here and there but What specific internals do you look at? Which are garbage? Thanks

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@mfbreakout I know you mention it here and there but What specific internals do you look at? Which are garbage? Thanks

Internals to gauage if sentiment of majority of market participants is bullish, neutral or bearish are following. These for trading NQ, TF etc. For CL, NG, GC etc. I am basically trading based off daily and weekly ATR of each instruement.
If CL moves 150 to 300 ticks intra day, i am looking to short at highs within a macro bearish trend. In a macro bullish trend i am looking to go long when CL pulls back 150-300 ticks. Lets look at todays CL range. CL moved from 80 to 84.80, that's a 480 ticks which is way outside ATR. Picking an area to go long was tough but to short anywhere at highs was an easy trade.

Which are garbage? I am not sure what you mean by this.



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 robert880 
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Thanks. I thought you watched stuff like nyse tick or trin. Thanks again for the clarification. I'm reading the logical trader now motivated by your posts

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 mfbreakout 
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How i set up a trade during globex session. I typically do not place trades during globex session. They generally have not worked for me. Lately, there have been expanded volatility in CL, therefore i am taking trades to take advanatge of the volatility.

Time to check in Euro open and CL short i put in during Euro session.



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 mfbreakout 
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From Bloomberg this morning

" Oil’s collapse into a bear market is excessive because there’s no oversupply to justify the sell-off, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The bank is “near-term constructive about prices” after they fell too much, too soon, analysts including Jeffrey Currie, the head of commodities research in New York, wrote in a report e-mailed today. While speculation of a global oversupply drove down prompt oil, there’s no incentive to store because forward contracts are weaker, potentially creating a near-term shortage as stockpiles are depleted, according to the bank.

“The ‘supply glut’ is not yet here today, it exists in expectations,” the analysts wrote. “Prices have also likely overshot to the downside particularly as the lower we go, the tighter the near-term balances become.”

Oil slumped as shale boosts U.S. output to the highest level in almost 30 years amid signs of weakening global demand. The biggest producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are responding by cutting prices, sparking speculation they’ll compete for market share rather than reduce supply. OPEC’s 12 members pump about 40 percent of world supply.

With every 10 percent drop in oil prices, consumption grows by 0.15 percent, Goldman estimated. Brent crude’s slump of almost 30 percent from its June peak may mean additional demand of almost 500,000 barrels a day, according to the bank.

Futures are paring losses as other banks including BNP Paribas SA and Bank of America Corp. predict the rout may be over. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude, rose as much as 1 percent to $83.52 a barrel in New York. London-traded Brent climbed 1.1 percent to $86.79, also gaining a second day."

Thank You GS, BAC etc but we already know based off yesterday PRICE ACTION that $80 level is support till proven wrong. O.K, we got support, how about resistance? How high CL can bounce? One step at a time. Just like as price moved to the down side and with each support broken we moved to the next one. Similarly, as each resistance is broken we will move to the next one.

For the time being resistance is above 85. Once 85 gets taken out with CONVICTION, we will look for next level.



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 mfbreakout 
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You should be dancing. For all the aspiring traders.




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 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
Time to check in Euro open and CL short i put in during Euro session.


out flat 83.22 on long from 82.60 area.



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 mfbreakout 
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out flat 83.22 on long from 82.60 area.

Before heading back to bed, i had a small wish for CL. CL may not hit ultimate target in the time frame and manner i may wish but short set up was as clear as it can get in a UNKNOWN trading world based of probabilities. Context/Probabilities first everything else is a side show. The more side show one likes the more bells and whistles one rely on. Set up was based off edges off the trading floor which unlike dance floor is not fixed.



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 mfbreakout 
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I have been banned

I have been ignored

but i can't help myself

because i am a ---------.

I will have to think about filling the blanks.



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The unemployment rate represents unemployed persons as a percentage of the labour force based on International Labour Office (ILO) definition. The labour force is the total number of people employed and unemployed. Unemployed persons comprise persons aged 15 to 74 who:
- are without work during the reference week;
- are available to start work within the next two weeks;
- and have been actively seeking work in the past four weeks or had already found a job to start within the next three months.
Data are presented in seasonally adjusted form.

Happy trading to all.

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 mfbreakout 
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I have not taken a trade since covering CL short around 83.20 area on short from 84.20 area. NQ, TF is up and up, internals are +ve every where but per my RULES i can not take longs without decent pullbacks. So sitting on hands ,enjoying music and looking for shorts. Just as ES, NQ went down way beyond what everyone thought market will go down to when market internals were -ve, similalry they can move to the upside way beyond what most people think when internals are as +ve as they are today. So be extra careful if thinking about shorts.

I have a small short in TF from 1092 area but nothing so far, just couple of points of back and forth. TF had quite a run over last couple of days and is most due for a pullback. NQ , ES up around 1.70% and TF up only .50 %. It's out of GAS.



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 mfbreakout 
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I have not taken a trade since covering CL short around 83.20 area on short from 84.20 area. NQ, TF is up and up, internals are +ve every where but per my RULES i can not take longs without decent pullbacks. So sitting on hands ,enjoying music and looking for shorts. Just as ES, NQ went down way beyond what everyone thought market will go down to when market internals were -ve, similalry they can move to the upside way beyond what most people think when internals are as +ve as they are today. So be extra careful if thinking about shorts.

I have a small short in TF from 1092 area but nothing so far, just couple of points of back and forth. TF had quite a run over last couple of days and is most due for a pullback. NQ , ES up around 1.70% and TF up only .50 %. It's out of GAS.

Why no shorts in NQ, ES and only a scalp in TF short for 3 points?



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 mfbreakout 
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How to size a position? It depends on internals plus how much of a hold time one is willing to endure with lots of back and forth.

Either way HOLD TIME is always longer than most traders realize if they want significant portion of intra day opportunities.
Also short TF from 1091 area and around 2 hours of hold time.



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 mfbreakout 
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How to size a position? It depends on internals plus how much of a hold time one is willing to endure with lots of back and forth.

Either way HOLD TIME is always longer than most traders realize if they want significant portion of intra day opportunities.
Also short TF from 1091 area and around 2 hours of hold time.

Out flat NQ around 3796 and TF 1076. If i had more contracts on, i would have left some from the short side. In summary 2 hours of wait time from NY open to see if short makes sense ( no longs) and than 3 hours of hold time from the short side. It's hard for me to imagine how home gamers can trade by looking at so called order flow via DOM etc if their goal is to clear 50% of intra day moves via 1 or 2 trades. It will be nice to see a FLUSH DOWN while internals staying green to go long. Otherwise, no trade.



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 mfbreakout 
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NG came to edge of the boundaries- time to try long or if already long, add to longs.



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 mfbreakout 
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Q) Why in front of strong internals and yesterday's price action i did not take longs in NQ, TF etc.

A) If ireally dig deep into my subconsious i will find many reasons but two main reasons are;

1) I had massive gains over last 2 weeks trading TF, CL, NG, PL etc. I was trying to curb my excitement because it felt like i could not do anything wrong.

2) I was mentally/physically exhausated around 9.30 am this morning. I decided to step back from screen for an hour or so. By the time i came back NQ, TF were at intra day highs and at that point i was ONLY left with short option for a reversion to the mean trade set up.



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 mfbreakout 
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I do not trade E-mini. I trade NQ, TF. I am using E-mini as an example because most of my conversation was with a fellow trader who trades E-mini. He has more trading experience ( 20+ years) and knowledge. In the end he did OK but he is a prison to his own knowledge, experience and is not as flexible as i am. I do not hold positions overnight in indices, he does with 3% drop in E-mini as a stop loss from his entry etc. Stop loss plus cost of putting hedges to protect his gains brought him back to REALTY. If ES does not consolidates , hold and move up and October was end of the year- he will not be looking good.

He is experienced enough trader to be cautious now with things like Low for the year is IN and ES will finish year higher etc. He wants to see price behaviour over next week or so. In other words he is no mood to make forecasts till market consolidates, hold his levels etc.



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Held 2 cars short from yesterday. Shorted NQ this morning. US traders just tend to focus on US markets with nonsense comments like that S&P is down only 5% over 10 days etc., no need to panic. We do not panic, we just trade. How about Germany, UK etc being down day after day 2%, 3% , 4%. World is a village- at least when it comes to trading. Pretty soon i will start trading DAX and FTSE.

NOTE: Will be looking at APPL earnings on October 20th to gauage market sentiment. It's just one factor and lot of money is in it. If safe heavens start getting liquidated - WATCH OUT.

i was thinking all the time that you are the person to surf on the perfect storm of dax, and now you say that , i am sitting here to watch the show!i think you love her

this thread is pure gold for me, thanks

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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 mfbreakout 
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GM,

Recently started listening to Eckhart Tolle's " Music to Quiet the Mind" and his audio book.




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 mfbreakout 
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ZS- shorting every bounce.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Praying and waiting for a bounce in PL and PA.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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NG. Looking for a bounce from big balance area low's. Don't like gap down, so will cut down size.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Hunt weakest index after a massive bounce. Have all the problems from which TF got sold off 10% got corrected in just 1 day? I don't think so.



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 mfbreakout 
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A typical rotational day. I wonder why on a rotational day like today there is more analysis of support, resistance etc when there is nothing really going on?



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I was hoping for a bounce ( trading Z4 . December contract) to 83 to 83.50 area at NY open. My stop loss was way above 84, so a bounce higher would have been nice, but no go.

Had to short with reduced size. Out 81.20 area. Tried long 81.24 area but scratched it as i did not feel comfortable with longs . Now short 82.30 area. Lunch hour , so will be happy with 30-40 ticks.



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 mfbreakout 
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I have watched/listened to quite a few of webinars over the years. Without getting into nitty gritty details of their +ve or -ve impact on my trading, one thing i can say without any reservation ( at least for my way of trading) 90% of the presenters gave totally wrong guidelines for stop loss and put me on a long path of cirular motions.

In a nut shell (some said it implicitly and some hinted towards it very strongly) thier entire message was that they or a good day trader has 1:3 risk reward trades with win ratio of 60,70 80 %. They risk 10 ticks and make 40 ticks in a quick burst of 1-5 minutes and on and on.

I am looking at some of the titles

1) Trading the market's edge with the big boys.
2) A road map for trade development.
3) Who are the major market players and what is their impact.
4) Reading order flow to execute trades with precision.
5) Right Place at the right time.
6) Executting trades from the edge with precision.
7) A glipmse into the realities of professional trading.

Majority of the webinars are allotted 60 minutes time frame. First presenters will waste 10-15 minutes of time with BS background info. and then get into the ritual of pointing out that during such a short time they really can not get into details etc. All i know in 60 minutes a good presenter can provide more details than most attendees are looking for.

The only one i listen to now from time to time are JIM DALTON/ BRETT STEENBARGER webinars

NOTE: 90% number is of all the webinars i have listened to. Obviously, i am talking about a relatively small universe because i have no idea how many are out there. The one i have listened to are the same characters which most of the traders are aware of because same names come up again and again.



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 mfbreakout 
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NG- not a good day. Should have paid attention to Gap down in NG .



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 Surly 
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Had to short with reduced size. Out 81.20 area. Tried long 81.24 area but scratched it as i did not feel comfortable with longs . Now short 82.30 area. Lunch hour , so will be happy with 30-40 ticks.

Nice work on that short from the open.

The reversal in CL around 81 was difficult for me to recognize in real time - kept seeing places to short while CL climbed from 81 back the low 82's. The only thing I can see was that the Euro was grinding up all day and that this may have kept a lid on the downtrend in CL. Am I just daydreaming or would you agree?

As always, thanks for being such a consistent and useful poster.

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 mfbreakout 
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Nice work on that short from the open.

The reversal in CL around 81 was difficult for me to recognize in real time - kept seeing places to short while CL climbed from 81 back the low 82's. The only thing I can see was that the Euro was grinding up all day and that this may have kept a lid on the downtrend in CL. Am I just daydreaming or would you agree?

As always, thanks for being such a consistent and useful poster.

Thanks Surly,

Try to look at CL from a rotational point of view. It rotates 150-200 ticks on 70% of trading days. You can pick up CL daily chart from any day over last 4 years and this what you will see on 70% of trading days.

NOTE: Point #1 on chart got cut off. 1) For me there are ONLY 2 refrence points for the time being . 84 and 79. If i am short my stop loss is above 84 and if i am long my stop loss is below 79.

CORRECTION: Chart for #2 should read " Once price went above 81.40 ( chart note reads 82.40) after touching 80.80, i wanted to go long on pullback but CL never pulled back.



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 Surly 
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Thanks Surly,

Try to look at CL from a rotational point of view. It rotates 150-200 ticks on 70% of trading days. You can pick up CL daily chart from any day over last 4 years and this what you will see on 70% of trading days.

Thanks - yes, that is a good enough reason. Lately we've had much bigger ranges so it seems the possibility is higher for larger ranges to occur. But the probabilities almost certainly still favor ranges within that 150-200 tick range.

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 mfbreakout 
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Thanks - yes, that is a good enough reason. Lately we've had much bigger ranges so it seems the possibility is higher for larger ranges to occur. But the probabilities almost certainly still favor ranges within that 150-200 tick range.

There needs to be a catalyst for ranges to be outside ATR. There is none for the time being. More importantly, even if we do not know the catalyst, the sell/buy bars ( i look at 5 minutes) of the day needs to show the way.

If i see a 10K sell bar, i know we are going down. In that case i do not mind to initiate a new short right there. For example, if today 81 level was broken with FORCE, i would have initiated a new short right there.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I do not trade Forex but following artice from bloomberg highlight's one of the key reasons for making some changes in my trading method. Markets can easily be manipulated around areas which most traders consider support/resistance ( for day trading). By adding a stop loss around those areas we guarantee that firms can pay BILLIONS in fines and still thrive in their respective business.

" By Richard Partington Oct 20, 2014 7:00 PM ET 8 Comments Email Print


The cost for banks to settle probes into allegations traders rigged foreign-exchange benchmarks could hit as much as $41 billion, Citigroup Inc. (C) analysts said.

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) is seen as probably the “most impacted” with a fine of as much as 5.1 billion euros ($6.5 billion), Citigroup analysts led by Kinner Lakhani said yesterday, estimating the Frankfurt-based bank’s settlements could reach 10 percent of its tangible book value, or its assets’ worth.

Using similar calculations, Barclays Plc (BARC) could face as much as 3 billion pounds ($4.8 billion) in fines and UBS AG (UBSN) penalties of 4.3 billion Swiss francs ($4.6 billion), they wrote in a note first sent to clients on Oct. 3.

Authorities around the world are scrutinizing allegations that dealers traded ahead of their clients and colluded to rig currency benchmarks. Regulators in the U.K. and U.S. could reach settlements with some banks as soon as next month, and prosecutors at the U.S. Department of Justice plans to charge one by the end of the year, people with knowledge of the matter have said.

Spokesmen for Deutsche Bank, Barclays and UBS declined to comment on the Citigroup estimates.

The Citigroup analysts made their calculations using a Sept. 26 Reuters report that the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority settlements could include fines totaling about 1.8 billion pounds. They derived their estimates for how high fines could go in other investigations from that baseline, using banks’ settlements in the London interbank offered rate manipulation cases as a guide.


Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg
Deutsche Bank AG is seen as probably the “most impacted” with a fine of as much as 5.1... Read More
“Extrapolating European and, more importantly, U.S. penalties from a previous global settlement suggests to us a total potential global settlement on this key issue,” they said in the note.

Cooperation Rewards

U.K. authorities will probably account about $6.7 billion of fines across all banks, according to the Citigroup analysts. Other European investigations will account for $6.5 billion. Penalties in the U.S. cases could be about four times greater, hitting $28.2 billion.

The Citigroup analysts didn’t take into account the possible effect of banks’ collaboration with investigators. That can have a big impact on the size of the fines, lowering and even wiping out a penalty in some cases.

UBS and Barclays saw $4.3 billion worth of antitrust fines waived by European Union authorities in December in exchange for their early and full cooperation. Six others were fined 1.7 billion euros in that case, which involved rigging euro and yen interest rate derivatives.

UBS has sought leniency in exchange for handing over evidence of misconduct to U.S. antitrust investigators in the foreign-exchange probes, and was also the first to step forward to cooperate with the EU, people with knowledge of the matter have said."



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Why on my short around 82.48 i cut down position size yesterday? becuase of probability of Monkey jumping higher as it did this morning. Well, yesterday i cut down size, today i added back size from the short size. Still holding some shorts, will look for longs around 81.70 to 82 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Yesterday CL sold off from 82.64 area to 80.80 area with usual SONG and DANCE in between. Today, it went upto 83.29 area and after an hour down to 82.30 and counting- a good example of video game.



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The Cold Hard Truth: Maybe I Am Not Good Enough w/Chris Gray @ Earn2Trade

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