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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #771 (permalink)
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From Bloomberg this morning

" Oil’s collapse into a bear market is excessive because there’s no oversupply to justify the sell-off, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The bank is “near-term constructive about prices” after they fell too much, too soon, analysts including Jeffrey Currie, the head of commodities research in New York, wrote in a report e-mailed today. While speculation of a global oversupply drove down prompt oil, there’s no incentive to store because forward contracts are weaker, potentially creating a near-term shortage as stockpiles are depleted, according to the bank.

“The ‘supply glut’ is not yet here today, it exists in expectations,” the analysts wrote. “Prices have also likely overshot to the downside particularly as the lower we go, the tighter the near-term balances become.”

Oil slumped as shale boosts U.S. output to the highest level in almost 30 years amid signs of weakening global demand. The biggest producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are responding by cutting prices, sparking speculation they’ll compete for market share rather than reduce supply. OPEC’s 12 members pump about 40 percent of world supply.

With every 10 percent drop in oil prices, consumption grows by 0.15 percent, Goldman estimated. Brent crude’s slump of almost 30 percent from its June peak may mean additional demand of almost 500,000 barrels a day, according to the bank.

Futures are paring losses as other banks including BNP Paribas SA and Bank of America Corp. predict the rout may be over. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude, rose as much as 1 percent to $83.52 a barrel in New York. London-traded Brent climbed 1.1 percent to $86.79, also gaining a second day."

Thank You GS, BAC etc but we already know based off yesterday PRICE ACTION that $80 level is support till proven wrong. O.K, we got support, how about resistance? How high CL can bounce? One step at a time. Just like as price moved to the down side and with each support broken we moved to the next one. Similarly, as each resistance is broken we will move to the next one.

For the time being resistance is above 85. Once 85 gets taken out with CONVICTION, we will look for next level.



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  #772 (permalink)
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You should be dancing. For all the aspiring traders.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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mfbreakout View Post
Time to check in Euro open and CL short i put in during Euro session.


out flat 83.22 on long from 82.60 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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mfbreakout View Post
out flat 83.22 on long from 82.60 area.

Before heading back to bed, i had a small wish for CL. CL may not hit ultimate target in the time frame and manner i may wish but short set up was as clear as it can get in a UNKNOWN trading world based of probabilities. Context/Probabilities first everything else is a side show. The more side show one likes the more bells and whistles one rely on. Set up was based off edges off the trading floor which unlike dance floor is not fixed.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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I have been banned

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I have not taken a trade since covering CL short around 83.20 area on short from 84.20 area. NQ, TF is up and up, internals are +ve every where but per my RULES i can not take longs without decent pullbacks. So sitting on hands ,enjoying music and looking for shorts. Just as ES, NQ went down way beyond what everyone thought market will go down to when market internals were -ve, similalry they can move to the upside way beyond what most people think when internals are as +ve as they are today. So be extra careful if thinking about shorts.

I have a small short in TF from 1092 area but nothing so far, just couple of points of back and forth. TF had quite a run over last couple of days and is most due for a pullback. NQ , ES up around 1.70% and TF up only .50 %. It's out of GAS.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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I have not taken a trade since covering CL short around 83.20 area on short from 84.20 area. NQ, TF is up and up, internals are +ve every where but per my RULES i can not take longs without decent pullbacks. So sitting on hands ,enjoying music and looking for shorts. Just as ES, NQ went down way beyond what everyone thought market will go down to when market internals were -ve, similalry they can move to the upside way beyond what most people think when internals are as +ve as they are today. So be extra careful if thinking about shorts.

I have a small short in TF from 1092 area but nothing so far, just couple of points of back and forth. TF had quite a run over last couple of days and is most due for a pullback. NQ , ES up around 1.70% and TF up only .50 %. It's out of GAS.

Why no shorts in NQ, ES and only a scalp in TF short for 3 points?



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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How to size a position? It depends on internals plus how much of a hold time one is willing to endure with lots of back and forth.

Either way HOLD TIME is always longer than most traders realize if they want significant portion of intra day opportunities.
Also short TF from 1091 area and around 2 hours of hold time.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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mfbreakout View Post
How to size a position? It depends on internals plus how much of a hold time one is willing to endure with lots of back and forth.

Either way HOLD TIME is always longer than most traders realize if they want significant portion of intra day opportunities.
Also short TF from 1091 area and around 2 hours of hold time.

Out flat NQ around 3796 and TF 1076. If i had more contracts on, i would have left some from the short side. In summary 2 hours of wait time from NY open to see if short makes sense ( no longs) and than 3 hours of hold time from the short side. It's hard for me to imagine how home gamers can trade by looking at so called order flow via DOM etc if their goal is to clear 50% of intra day moves via 1 or 2 trades. It will be nice to see a FLUSH DOWN while internals staying green to go long. Otherwise, no trade.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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