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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

  #731 (permalink)
BOSTON, MA
 
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How to short at lows? SIMPLE answer is that by shorting one is within trend and just because price bounces 30-40 ticks in between does not mean there is buying under way. That's why MA and other indicators traders get SURPRISED every day. A certain number of bounces are purposefully given to counter trend traders to facilitate shorts and just as their indicators say buy, buy- RUG gets pulled.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; October 14th, 2014 at 02:26 PM.
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  #732 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
How to short at lows? SIMPLE answer is that by shorting one is within trend and just because price bounces 30-40 ticks in between does not mean there is buying under way. That's why MA and other indicators traders get SURPRISED every day. A certain number of bounces are purposefully given to counter trend traders to facilitate shorts and just as their indicators say buy, buy- RUG gets pulled.


Cover 81.72 and still holding 1 car short.

Wow- I wish i had known before hand that this kind of selling will come today, i would have put on some size behind this short.

As traders we only sure about couple of things, rest is out of our control.

1) WE know the trend. We should ONLY trade with the trend. If counter trending just be aware of what's under way.
2) We do not know when and how macro trend will unfold. CL has been on a pretty clear path to the down side. We just do not know which days moves to the down side will be bigger than others.
3) Any bounces against the trend are shortable.
4) Algos/ HFT etc can not out smart a trader as long as a trader is trading with the trend.
5) Drawing up support against trend with hopes of picking bottoms and going long is a 100% uselesss exccerise.
6) Efforts should be used to come up with resistance levels to short into bounces.
7) Learn to smile as price jumps against trend and be ready to short right in front of biggest counter trend green candle.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; October 14th, 2014 at 03:04 PM.
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  #733 (permalink)
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Why i was not sure to short today at NY open?

A) I was praying for CL to jump 50-80 ticks at NY open so that i can short it. But my prayers did not get answered. What to do? CL was so weak right at NY open. I finally got tired for CL to jump and shorted it around 85.07 area. It's esier to short when lot of traders are lured in from the buy side. When there is NO JUMP, price goes back and forth and takes all the time in the world to do what it wants to do- like CL did this morning.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; October 14th, 2014 at 03:32 PM.
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  #734 (permalink)
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Surprised.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #735 (permalink)
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Surprised


mfbreakout View Post
Surprised.

That does not reflect TF & NQ right ...mostly Green , but Indices i mention are down.

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  #736 (permalink)
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Crude Oil Article

What do you think they are doing......Hedging/Covering ?

Facing new oil glut, Saudis avoid 1980s mistakes to halt price slide

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/facing-oil-glut-saudis-avoid-1980s-mistakes-halt-005348902--finance.html

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  #737 (permalink)
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sandptrader View Post
That does not reflect TF & NQ right ...mostly Green , but Indices i mention are down.

Indices are made of some of these stocks. TF moved from Globex low of 1046 to 1072 ( 26 points) in a bearish macro trend. As price was moving beyond 1070 area, i started smiling and got ready to short on reversion to the mean set up.

Based on stocks plus market internals, i am just surprised that TF pulled back that much ( basically 19 points). I took long around 1054, out some 1059 and holding rest. If stocks were not green along with internals, i would not have tried long on this pullback.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #738 (permalink)
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map stock


mfbreakout View Post
Surprised.

i am using, and i realized that is delay 20 min, maybe go down and map green ...

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #739 (permalink)
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sandptrader View Post
What do you think they are doing......Hedging/Covering ?

Facing new oil glut, Saudis avoid 1980s mistakes to halt price slide

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/facing-oil-glut-saudis-avoid-1980s-mistakes-halt-005348902--finance.html

Hi Sandptrader,

It's difficult to read into others people action. I try to keep it SIMPLE. I will stop shorting crude if and when crude gets a bid for 2-3 days in a row on massive volume in one straight line. Till then, i will not mind shorting it even if it's trading at $70 or lower. We are PRICE ACTION traders. So far based on PRICE ACTION , CL is going down.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #740 (permalink)
madrid spain
 
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cl at 80



sandptrader View Post
What do you think they are doing......Hedging/Covering ?

Facing new oil glut, Saudis avoid 1980s mistakes to halt price slide

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/facing-oil-glut-saudis-avoid-1980s-mistakes-halt-005348902--finance.html

the article talk cl at 90 and the producer can support prices as low as 80....

today is old ....

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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