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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

  #691 (permalink)
BOSTON, MA
 
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Is there anything up in trading universe? Long CC . Have been building position since yesterday.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #692 (permalink)
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Still holding shorts in TF.

Made a mistake in CL and then corrected it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #693 (permalink)
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One can learn a lot from CNBC business channel if one keeps an open mind and see what some of the JOKERS are saying. Then in between we get some serious traders and thinkers to pick. I have learned more from JOKERS - by the way.

I can not wait to see the headlines and listen to some analysis later today. It's entertainment and some great trading lessons packed in ONE. I wonder if Najarian brothers will once again use EBOLA scare as one of the reasons. They been using it atleast for a week now. Also looking forward to Tim Semyor explanation of todays price action as he was pounding his chest and everything else yesterday about his 6 months old hypothesis that everytning in the world is pretty good. He basically said there is nothing to worry about. I agree. But S&P is up only 5% YTD and couple of wrong moves by these managers and their YTD performance will not be looking good.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #694 (permalink)
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KC has been teasing me for months.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #695 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Still holding shorts in TF.

Made a mistake in CL and then corrected it.


CL just hit 84.06. Why would CL will consolidates for hours and then give it up 200 ticks in 40 minutes after being down 200 ticks already? I have no idea. We just try to trade probabilities.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #696 (permalink)
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One of the benefits of keeping track of different opportunities while day trading 2 core instruements is that opportunities are constantly showing up. I day trade CL, NG and TF almost every day and trade others when nice set ups line up. It also allows trader not to waste too much time obsessing and analyzing just one instruement. I used to spend hours just looking at CL and analyzing every twist and turn of CL price movement. There is no benefit in doing so.

Short PL.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #697 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
CL just hit 84.06. Why would CL will consolidates for hours and then give it up 200 ticks in 40 minutes after being down 200 ticks already? I have no idea. We just try to trade probabilities.

When will I stop shorting CL on bounces?

If news comes out that OPEC will be cutting down her production then shorts in CL will be over . Oil traders were expecting news from Saudi Arabia 2 weeks ago that she will cut down CL production. Instead of cutting down production, Saudi Arabia decided to cut down prices. Traders expecting a reversal of CL bearish trend lost their last hope.

In summary we need macro catalyst for reversal. Without macro catalyst, every bounce is shortable.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #698 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Still holding shorts in TF.

Made a mistake in CL and then corrected it.

Everytime i think about covering my short- it gets pushed down another 100 ticks like there is no tomorrow. Pretty amazing. Traders who been trying to go long over last 4 weeks in CL have been mostly on the wrong side. They got crumbs in the name of reading price action.

Over last 4 weeks i got asked a lot as to how come i keep adding to my shorts even when price was moving to the upside against me? Simple answer is just because price is moving up does not mean it's due to REAL buying. I find it counter productive to try to figure out as to exactly where CL dead cat bounces will stop , price will reverse and resume it's macro bearish trend. It's much easier to identify trend and not worry about being precise with location. That's the beauty of trading with trend. It allows a trader lot of wiggle room provided he/she does not try to be cute with STOP LOSS.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; October 10th, 2014 at 03:09 AM.
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  #699 (permalink)
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When SOFTS like KC, CC etc move watch out. I am still trying to get used to long hold times and then 3-10% moves in one direction.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #700 (permalink)
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3 hours of intense trading. No wonder trading is addictive. With prices moving up and down at the speed of light along with P&L, i still do not know on days like today what causes me to put on a certain size for a certain trade, how i come up with targets, hold time etc. Intutively we all know where certain levels are. I had no way of knowing in advance that i will be shorting at 1062 area and then hold for not ticks but points. But with internals being weak, it felt like right thing to do.

All i know context has to be first and wide stop loss so that i can focus on trading.

1) short ZS from yesterday. Cover most and still holding some.

2) Short PL from yesterday. Cover most and still holding some.

3) Long CC and still holding some.

4) Short CL 84.48, reversed and long 84.62 , out 85.30 area. Short 85.32 area. Out 84.50 area. I was smiling as CL was going up not because i was long but because i like to short bounces within bearish trend.

5) Short TF. Out flat. Will short TF into bounces but if it's just stays around 1055 area, it will be a tough short. Will look into after lunch. No longs for me unless everything just turns GREEN from market internals side.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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