COMMON SENSE - futures io
futures io



COMMON SENSE


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one mfbreakout with 980 posts (2,732 thanks)
    2. looks_two sandptrader with 64 posts (128 thanks)
    3. looks_3 alejo with 36 posts (38 thanks)
    4. looks_4 madLyfe with 24 posts (25 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Surly with 3.4 thanks per post
    2. looks_two mfbreakout with 2.8 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 jthom with 2.6 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 sandptrader with 2 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 115,048 views
    2. thumb_up 3,303 thanks given
    3. group 64 followers
    1. forum 1,262 posts
    2. attach_file 811 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

Closed Thread
 
Search this Thread
 

COMMON SENSE

(login for full post details)
  #601 (permalink)
 Bsinks 
Wichita Falls TX/United States
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Soybeans, Crude, Natural Gas
 
Bsinks's Avatar
 
Posts: 82 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 37 given, 65 received

TF just completed a 10% correction.....could go lower and could bounce.........just FYI

The following 2 users say Thank You to Bsinks for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #602 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
Everyone can see why CL stopped around 91 area. My trading set ups do not call for longs and hold during Globex.
What's the next thing a trader can do? For me, ONLY question is where can i short? I am short 91.70, 91 area. I am not couting that CL will just stop at 91. I am trading probabilities and ranges. If massive short squueze or buying shows up before DOE report, i will step aside and wait for DOE report. If price moves up without conviction, will add to shorts.

We have DOE report today. CL will trade in a tight rnage till then. After 10.30, we will know if 90.80 area is low for this week and what will be high.


Flat and scratch trade before DOE report. CL back to it's rotation mode with long hold time to get paid some. Short 92.40 area and 92.80 area after DOE report. So far, nothing to show for with more than an hour of hold time. Modest targets. Not every day has to be 300 ticks day.

Nice trades in TF and NG from the short side.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #603 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

CL shorts. Contrary to what some may believe, i am not a trader who picks levels to the tick. I try my best to find a good trade location but i do not bend out of shape if it's not. It's not easy trying to day trade while at the same time keep BIG picture in mind.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-01_1157_shorts.png
Views:	57
Size:	148.7 KB
ID:	159278  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #604 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

TF. 2 trades so far. Both shorts. If i am wrong on shorts, at least i can blame internals. Not sure who can i balme if i am wrong on longs? That's what makes a market.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-01_1207_short.png
Views:	48
Size:	126.8 KB
ID:	159281   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-01_1214_mapper.png
Views:	47
Size:	368.5 KB
ID:	159282  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #605 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
Flat and scratch trade before DOE report. CL back to it's rotation mode with long hold time to get paid some. Short 92.40 area and 92.80 area after DOE report. So far, nothing to show for with more than an hour of hold time. Modest targets. Not every day has to be 300 ticks day.

Nice trades in TF and NG from the short side.

Well FAT LADY finally started singing. Cover some 92 and out flat 91.80.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #606 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

During my conversation with someone who has been following my journal, he raised a good point. Basically, he said that he sees the logic of my trades but at this stageof his career, he finds it very hard to trade the way i trade- wide stop loss, adding to a psoition etc. He asked me if there is another journal which can help him which does not involve wide stop loss etc.


I told him, he can read Vince Virgil ( now closed) journal. Just be careful and not get too deep with Vince way of trading if one ultimate goal is to trade different instruements at the same time. Vince method seemed to require too much concentration and attention to small details to capture 30 or so ticks with 10 ticks stop loss. If one gets too attached to such an approach ( i was in the same boat earlier in my career with a totally different method) it becomes difficult to switch to longer time frame method.

Vince approach seems to have good risk: reward and good starting point for a trader.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #607 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
Well FAT LADY finally started singing. Cover some 92 and out flat 91.80.

Reshort 92.10 area. It pays to stay with the macro trend. Out flat 90.70.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #608 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
TF. 2 trades so far. Both shorts. If i am wrong on shorts, at least i can blame internals. Not sure who can i balme if i am wrong on longs? That's what makes a market.

TF



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-01_1435.png
Views:	49
Size:	107.2 KB
ID:	159313  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #609 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

It does not matter which instruement is one trading. Set ups are the same. I decided not to use anything which works on one instruement but does not work on others like some order flow tools. Whenever i will talk with a vendor, it will be like this works for E-mini but not for CL or CC etc. I will thank them and move on. Why get my brain trained a certain way with a tool which works for E-mini but not for the other.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-01_1442_NG.png
Views:	44
Size:	103.6 KB
ID:	159315  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #610 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
TF

Never a good idea to pick lows against kind of selling we have today. Out flat 1083 and rest B/E. ONLY traders who were bullish in E-min etc. showcasing that trend is intact with long term trend lines and refusing to short on the premise that trend is still intact are trying to go long. They see support everywhere. May be indicies will bounce , may be not. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. It will be pretty obvious from market internals when it makes sense to go long just like today it only made sense to short. No need to pick spots in front of a freight train.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #611 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Why i did not go long yesterday or today? Holding some shorts into globex session.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-09-29_1633_joe.png
Views:	64
Size:	90.9 KB
ID:	159355   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-01_1720_balance.png
Views:	55
Size:	552.5 KB
ID:	159402  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #612 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
Why i did not go long yesterday or today? Holding some shorts into globex session.

Added to shorts. There is nothing better than BOUNCES within a macro down trend. Someone recently got banned from futures.io (formerly BMT) but he/she just will not give up. Here is one for his/her likes pleasure. I got e-mail saying that my trades are after the fact. Real traders call out trades ahead of time. levels and game plan is given a day before with low heat set ups etc and on and on.

I told him " I like heat considering it gets cold in Boston. He/She should go ahead and give all his money to whatever this trade calling service is to manage for him/her. With his free time he should have plenty of time to watch REALTY TV".



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-02_0334_euro_short.png
Views:	64
Size:	152.1 KB
ID:	159455  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #613 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
It's helpful to first look at big picture with weekly and daily chart. No lines on it. Just chart. I was using 21 EMA for some time on smaller time frame like 5 and 15 minutes to get some sense on a shorter time frame, Now, i am testing 2 EMA's .Both 30 EMA's. One shows high of 30 ema and the other shows low of 30 EMA. Damon Pavlatos did a webinar at futures.io (formerly BMT) couple of weeks ago. He uses them, so i am testing them.

However, any tool like MA, MACD etc comes after the context. Context first everything latter to just feel good or feel in control. Attached 2 charts, shows that a trader should be able to trade and know just by looking at them as to what is the trend. One does not need any tools to trade this chart. Tools just help with execution little bit better. Problem is that when a trader looks at weekly, daily chart for trend and then uses tools on a smaller time frame for execution- there is a conflict. ONLY way i know to tackle this is to keep Average True Range of an instruement in mind. If ATR for PL is 20 points and it's already down 20 points on the day, i am not shorting it. I have to wait for a bounce. How about longs? There are none. I have moved away from trading both sides intra day. For example, in this example of Platnium, if i try long, it will be for a SCALP. Since, i am trading 4-6 instruements every day, i do not have much time left for scalps. When i was just trading CL all day for 4 years, i used to do that. That was not good. I wish i was trading at least 2-3 instruements right from the start. There were more opportunities in PL over last 3 months than any other instruement but people talk about trading ES for 2 full points all day with lines on the chart that make it look like that they are solving a solution for WORLD PEACE.



" If ATR for PL is 20 points and it's already down 20 points on the day, i am not shorting it. I have to wait for a bounce"
Short PL into bounce.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-02_0357_PL_short.png
Views:	55
Size:	93.0 KB
ID:	159456  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #614 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Hunting process. It's pretty simple. We buy strongest instruements on pullbacks and sell weakest into bounces.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-02_0410_finviz.png
Views:	66
Size:	109.0 KB
ID:	159460  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #615 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

NKD longs not looking good.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-02_0427_nkd.png
Views:	65
Size:	111.5 KB
ID:	159463  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #616 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Flush down and beast is exhausated. Looking for exhausation/impulsive up move. Impulsive up move and then reversal is a good sign to see if up move is over.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-02_0734_flush_down.png
Views:	61
Size:	116.0 KB
ID:	159469  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #617 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

A good production from BBC about trading. Ex- pit traders have the hardest time as electronic trading took over and they needed to change. Most of them could not. In my experience Dday trading individual stocks is very difficult. Swing trading stocks makes more sense.

In the documentary- T3 live trader Scott is shown. I have not known a more disciplined trader and more hard working and has been day trading for around 10 years. When i saw him and others like him at T3 live, SMB capital looking at blinking prices and competing against algos with tightest stop loss one can imagine- i decided to try hand at futures. Every documentary, every educational material- all talk about moving super fast otherwise missing a trade is totally opposite to my experience. I do not take any trade where i have to move fast. We see it every day, price just getting stuck for 15 minutes etc. There is ALWAYS plenty of time to take a trade. Fast traders typically are in a rush to book profits also. They always seem to be scared. I have no desire to compete with HFT. If i want speed, i should become algo trader. Discretionary trading has other advantages.

NOTE: Epsiode 2 is available on youtube.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #618 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Time for vacation. I will be away for next 10 days.

Trades since long off 88.40 area.

1) Out 89.30 area from longs. Afetr 140 ticks move up from bottom. I am ONLY interested in shorts.

2) Short 89.50, 89.70 before NY open. Cover 89.30.

3) Short 89.80, 90, 90.20, 90.50, 90.70. area. Cover around 90.14 and still holding shorts. A particular area is not important for me except general area. I have no way of knowing whether 90.20 is an area where CL will reverse or 90.70 ? Now that CL is at 89.85, it looks like that 90.70 area is the best area. It looks so obvious. ONLY thing obvious to me is that from 88.10 to 90 is around 200 ticks. Higher the monkey goes- i add bigger position size because the odds keep getting better as price moves up.

In the BBC trading video episode #2 it's pretty obvious that every trader is getting hosed for $200 here and then $300 there. They getting cut by the randomness and have no conviction or staying power. They are looking for PRECISION. They put so much pressure on themselves that it's beyond any discretionary trader capacity. ONLY computers/algos can pick points and churn money all day because they are dealing in nano second for ticks. At least i find it impossible to predict most of the time ( sometime i just get lucky due to randomness) that moment i take a trade it has move in my direction in the next 5, 15 minutes with little HEAT.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 6 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #619 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

I seek HEAT and PRAY for an instruement which is in a bearsih trend bounces . Can you imagine if CL was just stuck between 88.18 and 89 all day? One just has to know not to seek HEAT when it's 104 degrees out side.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-02_1139_madness.png
Views:	58
Size:	109.7 KB
ID:	159529  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #620 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

CL came to 89.38 and in next 12 minutes back up to 90.08. This is a good example of a trade i will never take and have no interest in. I like trades where everyone gets put to sleep. I build position at my own time without any rush or pressure and then BOOM.

Unfortunately, some traders seek and waste lot of time in trying to understand and trade moves like these ( i also did for some time). When you hear a trader saying he made 60 ticks in 5 minutes- you can tell the length of his trading career with a pretty good accuracy.

Why such a trade is not a good trade for a discretionary trader? There are many reasons but one of the reason is that move is so fast that traders who matter had no time to build a position.
Look how long last night CL was stuck around 90.90 area and how long it consolidated around 88.20 area? Positions were put on. Bets were being made. This 89.40 area bounce is a PURE sign of algos in play.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #621 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Reversion to the mean short in TF. Trade well and see you guys in 10 days after vacation.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-02_1525_TF.png
Views:	67
Size:	97.2 KB
ID:	159583  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #622 (permalink)
 Bsinks 
Wichita Falls TX/United States
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Soybeans, Crude, Natural Gas
 
Bsinks's Avatar
 
Posts: 82 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 37 given, 65 received


mfbreakout View Post
Reversion to the mean short in TF. Trade well and see you guys in 10 days after vacation.


Have a good trip MFB.......see ya in 10 days

The following 2 users say Thank You to Bsinks for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #623 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Vacation got delayed for couple of days. I was planning to visit a college friend but lucky bastard got ordered to catch a flight and haul his ass to europe. His job has many perks like travelling first class, staying at Four Seasons etc. but he does not have control of his time and schedule.

We as traders are in control of our time, trades etc. Back to trading.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #624 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Some traders got wrong idea that the way i am trading is ONLY possible when a trader has $millions and NO FEAR etc. I am not trading with millions of $.
whether a trader is trading 1 contract or 10 contracts- logic and set ups are the same. It looks very nice to see so called big gains but on 10 cars each tick is $100 of potential loss also.

RESPONSIBILITY of 1 lot or 10 lot trader is the same. I am just trying to share what i have learned from being a MICKEY MOUSE trader putting unimaginable pressure on myself to a trader who still has pressure but within reason.
Attached chart is for a friend from CA. I was sharing my thinking and set ups as i was putting on this trade yesterday afternoon. Hopefully this will give him more confidence. He already seems to be doing quite well.

NOTE: The way CL reversed from 88 area, odds are high that that will be low for CL till it gets broken with CONVICTION.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-03_0707_master_trade.png
Views:	68
Size:	192.1 KB
ID:	159694  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 6 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #625 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Pullbacks long on a macro bullish trend.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-03_0809_pullback.png
Views:	69
Size:	102.1 KB
ID:	159699  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #626 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Catalyst for futher down moves in GC.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-03_0844_catalyst.png
Views:	47
Size:	79.1 KB
ID:	159703  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #627 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

PL. What a trend.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-03_0816_Amazed.png
Views:	61
Size:	75.4 KB
ID:	159711  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #628 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

1) Long NKD. Holding since yesterday.

2) Short GC holding since yesterday.

3) reshort CL 90.80 area. 45 minutes hold time- so far.

4) Short NG. Hold time 2 hours , so far.

5) Short PL since yesterday.

6) No trade in TF- this morning. I can not buy at highs.

It helps to have some sense as to how long of a hold time it will take to get paid. Enough of sharing P&L. I do not want my friends get worried that they do not have enough trading capital. Funny thing is that smaller the account size, it actually makes more sense to use wide stop loss and hold. In reality most of traders do totally opposite ( i did it for years).



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-03_0809_pullback.png
Views:	47
Size:	102.1 KB
ID:	159727   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-03_0851_longs.png
Views:	53
Size:	106.6 KB
ID:	159728  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 6 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #629 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

" reshort CL 90.80 area. 45 minutes hold time- so far."

Covered some but in no rush to try longs. Still short. 91.80 ( Globex high) to 89.40 - 240 ticks. No wonder pace of selling has slowed down. Lunch hour upon us.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #630 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

3 trades in CL since yesterday afternoon around 1 pm. I need Flush down and then reversal of Flush down to try long. It never came except yesterday during Euro session when flush down came around 88.20. If no Flush down then at least some decent buying. All day today there was nothing but selling with in between bounces to lure longs in to facilitate shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-03_1402_road_map.png
Views:	46
Size:	84.2 KB
ID:	159780  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #631 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Picking the right horse is important for the jockey. Go where the action is.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-03_1143_4horses.png
Views:	78
Size:	180.5 KB
ID:	159784  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #632 (permalink)
 alejo 
madrid spain
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
Trading: None.
 
alejo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 16,557 given, 643 received


mfbreakout View Post
Hunting process. It's pretty simple. We buy strongest instruements on pullbacks and sell weakest into bounces.

why is so difficult to do it?

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
(login for full post details)
  #633 (permalink)
 alejo 
madrid spain
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
Trading: None.
 
alejo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 16,557 given, 643 received


mfbreakout View Post
Picking the right horse is important for the jockey. Go where the action is.

cc
nk
pl
gc

it is incredible how i was fighting to find something i can believe it, an i did not find it, RR, W%, low risk, tigh stop, small time frames, strict method, etc
and now i see the light with your approach, it makes totally sense to me

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to alejo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #634 (permalink)
 alejo 
madrid spain
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
Trading: None.
 
alejo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 16,557 given, 643 received


mfbreakout View Post
Time for vacation. I will be away for next 10 days.

Trades since long off 88.40 area.

1) Out 89.30 area from longs. Afetr 140 ticks move up from bottom. I am ONLY interested in shorts.

2) Short 89.50, 89.70 before NY open. Cover 89.30.

3) Short 89.80, 90, 90.20, 90.50, 90.70. area. Cover around 90.14 and still holding shorts. A particular area is not important for me except general area. I have no way of knowing whether 90.20 is an area where CL will reverse or 90.70 ? Now that CL is at 89.85, it looks like that 90.70 area is the best area. It looks so obvious. ONLY thing obvious to me is that from 88.10 to 90 is around 200 ticks. Higher the monkey goes- i add bigger position size because the odds keep getting better as price moves up.

In the BBC trading video episode #2 it's pretty obvious that every trader is getting hosed for $200 here and then $300 there. They getting cut by the randomness and have no conviction or staying power. They are looking for PRECISION. They put so much pressure on themselves that it's beyond any discretionary trader capacity. ONLY computers/algos can pick points and churn money all day because they are dealing in nano second for ticks. At least i find it impossible to predict most of the time ( sometime i just get lucky due to randomness) that moment i take a trade it has move in my direction in the next 5, 15 minutes with little HEAT.

i feel identified myself with what you say. i was asking myself about this 1 year ago, scalp/bigger moves, and now i know i think i am identified with not go to scalp/i shut down the dom and cd
thank you for your enlightment

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to alejo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #635 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


alejo View Post
why is so difficult to do it?

I am not sure why it is difficult for others but i can share my experience. It was difficult for me because i was trading against my natural style. My natural style is to ignore noise and try to understand big picture. When i will look at monthly/weekly/daily chart to get a sense of big picture it will look so far out that it did not made sense for my scalping trading. For example, if Monthly chart is showing support at 90, weekly at 94 and daily around 98 while CL is trading at
103, i will be saying to myself who cares for 90,94 or 98? Who knows when will CL get there, it can be days and weeks before CL can get there. CL is trading at 103 and i need to figure out how to make 30 ticks based off what happening right now. I have simplified the example to make a point.

Another problem was i was ONLY trading CL for 4 years straight- day in and day out. I did not even look at any other instruement. There are lot of days when there is no opportunity within CL but i tried to create an opportunity in the name of order flow, channels, triangles - you name it. To make the matters worse i was looking at 1 minute , 5 minutes charts.

I was taking quotes like " Cut your losses Rule #1 of trading" without proper context and being stuck within my own narrow trading shell. I was trading 1/5 minutes charts and focused on 15 ticks stop loss to make 30 ticks. I realized for my way of trading ranges like these are totally random. I would rather be wrong and cut my losses when there is real change in a trend. If CL ATR is 200 ticks, then price needs to move another 200 ticks out of this range for me to believe that maybe something fundamentally have changed.

There are many other factors also but these were the key ones before i realized that something needs to fundamentally change to get in sync with my natural stayle of trading. For me change was to trade where opportunities are the most, avoid randomness and not to put so much pressure on myself that a trade going 30 ticks against me becomes an issue of life and death. I started realizing that a trade going 30 ticks against me ONLY means that my timing is off but the context of the set up have not changed and i started adding to my so called loosing positions. For some reasons after causing heart burn, anxiety etc. trades in most cases turned out to be what i thought they will be. Sometimes the trades just did not reversed from where i thought they will and HOLD time was much longer than i thought it will be required. I am OK ( not 100% comfortable though) with being off with timing and hold time as long as i am correct about the trend and context.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-05_1247_PL.png
Views:	73
Size:	137.0 KB
ID:	160082  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 8 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #636 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TastyWorks
Broker: TastyWorks
Trading: FX, Stocks, Options
 
Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,018 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 5,774 given, 4,913 received


mfbreakout View Post
I am not sure why it is difficult for others but i can share my experience. It was difficult for me because i was trading against my natural style. My natural style is to ignore noise and try to understand big picture. When i will look at monthly/weekly/daily chart to get a sense of big picture it will look so far out that it did not made sense for my scalping trading. For example, if Monthly chart is showing support at 90, weekly at 94 and daily around 98 while CL is trading at
103, i will be saying to myself who cares for 90,94 or 98? Who knows when will CL get there, it can be days and weeks before CL can get there. CL is trading at 103 and i need to figure out how to make 30 ticks based off what happening right now. I have simplified the example to make a point.

Another problem was i was ONLY trading CL for 4 years straight- day in and day out. I did not even look at any other instruement. There are lot of days when there is no opportunity within CL but i tried to create an opportunity in the name of order flow, channels, triangles - you name it. To make the matters worse i was looking at 1 minute , 5 minutes charts.

I was taking quotes like " Cut your losses Rule #1 of trading" without proper context and being stuck within my own narrow trading shell. I was trading 1/5 minutes charts and focused on 15 ticks stop loss to make 30 ticks. I realized for my way of trading ranges like these are totally random. I would rather be wrong and cut my losses when there is real change in a trend. If CL ATR is 200 ticks, then price needs to move another 200 ticks out of this range for me to believe that maybe something fundamentally have changed.

There are many other factors also but these were the key ones before i realized that something needs to fundamentally change to get in sync with my natural stayle of trading. For me change was to trade where opportunities are the most, avoid randomness and not to put so much pressure on myself that a trade going 30 ticks against me becomes an issue of life and death. I started realizing that a trade going 30 ticks against me ONLY means that my timing is off but the context of the set up have not changed and i started adding to my so called loosing positions. For some reasons after causing heart burn, anxiety etc. trades in most cases turned out to be what i thought they will be. Sometimes the trades just did not reversed from where i thought they will and HOLD time was much longer than i thought it will be required. I am OK ( not 100% comfortable though) with being off with timing and hold time as long as i am correct about the trend and context.

I can totally relate to this. I have recently come to the same realization about trading against what I am good at. I was doing the same thing; trying to make something out of nothing. Looking at charts and indicators which I had no business looking at. It was driving me crazy because I could not make it work.

The ah-ha moment for me came when I realized I am not going to be a 30 to 50 tick per trade trader with multiple trades per day. For me its 10 to 20 ticks with one trade per day. This was hard to come to grips with because I really wanted to make the (perceived) big money. What I was not looking at was the bigger picture; being a consistent trader and doing what I am naturally good at. In the long run this will make me a hell of a lot more money and help me keep my sanity along the way.

Thanks for sharing!!

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 3 users say Thank You to Silver Dragon for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #637 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


Silver Dragon View Post
I can totally relate to this. I have recently come to the same realization about trading against what I am good at. I was doing the same thing; trying to make something out of nothing. Looking at charts and indicators which I had no business looking at. It was driving me crazy because I could not make it work.

The ah-ha moment for me came when I realized I am not going to be a 30 to 50 tick per trade trader with multiple trades per day. For me its 10 to 20 ticks with one trade per day. This was hard to come to grips with because I really wanted to make the (perceived) big money. What I was not looking at was the bigger picture; being a consistent trader and doing what I am naturally good at. In the long run this will make me a hell of a lot more money and help me keep my sanity along the way.

Thanks for sharing!!

Robert

Hi Robert,

If you have decided to be a trader with a kind of discipline where you take 1 or 2 trades per day, then you do not have to settle for 10-20 ticks. 10-20 ticks is just noise. CL moves in most cases at least 100 ticks every day. To get majority of these 100 ticks, a trader has to hold the trade. Try and test this in SIM and see if it works for you.

Good trading.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #638 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Who is Michael Marcus?

Michael Marcus previously worked as a trader at Commodities Corporation, an investment management firm that was later acquired by Goldman Sachs. Reportedly, Michael Marcus was able to increase his account 2500-fold from $30,000 to $80 million over a span of 20 years.

On the secret to successful trading:

I think the secret is cutting down the number of trades you make. The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction that the fundamentals suggest. Third, when news comes out, the market should act in a way that reflects the right psychological tone. For example, a bull market should shrug off bearish news and respond vigorously to bullish news. If you can restrict your account activity to only those types of trades, you have to make money, in any market, under any circumstances.


NOTE: I am not aware of details of Michael performance, for example, if he added funds to his initial investment of $30,000.00 and other details. He may have been Michael Jordan of trading. All i know , i do not day dream and aspire to turn $30,000 into whatever. But i like his secret to successful trading.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #639 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

It's been only a couple of times over last 5 weeks when i tried long in CL. Otherwise shorts and shorts.

Short 91. 10. Cover some 89.60 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #640 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
It's been only a couple of times over last 5 weeks when i tried long in CL. Otherwise shorts and shorts.

Short 91. 10. Cover some 89.60 area.


Still holding shorts. Hold time? About an hour, so far.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #641 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
Hi Robert,

If you have decided to be a trader with a kind of discipline where you take 1 or 2 trades per day, then you do not have to settle for 10-20 ticks. 10-20 ticks is just noise. CL moves in most cases at least 100 ticks every day. To get majority of these 100 ticks, a trader has to hold the trade. Try and test this in SIM and see if it works for you.

Good trading.

Hold time.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-06_1041_open..png
Views:	64
Size:	137.0 KB
ID:	160180  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #642 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Taking other traders style, quotes, words of wisdom etc. without really knowing the full context is never a good idea. Following excerpts from Michael Marcus as a stand alone idea makes all the sense.

' On exiting a position:

That’s right. Another thing is that if a position doesn’t feel right as soon as you put it on, don’t be embarrassed to change your mind and get right out. f you become unsure about a position, and you don’t know what to do, just get out. You can always come back in. When in doubt, get out and get a good night’s sleep. I’ve done that lots of times and the next day everything was clear."

What does it really means and in what context? If i followed above without really fitting my style , i will be out of every trade after 10- 15 miutes because most of the trades do not feel right as soon as i put them on.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #643 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Michael Marcus

" Do you think being a great trader is an innate skill?

I think to be in the upper echelon of successful traders requires an innate skill, a gift. It’s just like being a great violinist. But to be a competent trader and make money is a skill you can learn."

I do not have an innate skill otherwise i would have gotten into trading early in my professional career. I started in trading after spending 20+ years in another career. Thanks, Marcus for saying one can become a competent trader and that's all we are trying to do here.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #644 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Bruce Kovner reply to a question from " Market Wizards" book.

Q) " You are one of the most successful traders in the world. There are only a small number of traders of your caliber. What makes you different from the average guy?

I’m not sure one can really define why some traders make it, while others do not. For myself, I can think of two important elements. First, I have the ability to imagine configurations of the world different from today and really believe it can happen. I can imagine that soybean prices can double or that the dollar can fall to 100 yen. Second, I stay rational and disciplined under pressure."

Bruce is successful because according to him he stays rational and disciplined under pressure. Think about whether having to endure so called 10 ticks of heat and then saying By the Grace of GOD, my stop was not hit and i made 20 ticks is what successful traders worry about.

Being disciplined does not mean getting hosed by randomness all day long.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #645 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Us$ and metals were pulled to extremes. $ to the up side and metals to the down side. All metals snapped back. No longs for me. Snap back had already happened and PL, GC had snapped back outside their ATR by the time i got to them.

Short PL around 1240 area. Short GC 1207 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-06_1537_corrected..png
Views:	29
Size:	257.8 KB
ID:	160246  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #646 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

TF - failed A up shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-06_1606_OPC.png
Views:	64
Size:	124.1 KB
ID:	160245  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #647 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Follow the plan.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_1033_plan.png
Views:	48
Size:	143.6 KB
ID:	160342  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #648 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

It took 24 hours to get paid. Nothing is more exciting than shorting bounces within a bearish trend.

" It's been only a couple of times over last 5 weeks when i tried long in CL. Otherwise shorts and shorts."



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_1028_shorts.png
Views:	43
Size:	143.5 KB
ID:	160343  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #649 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Shorts in TF and holding.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_1051_shorts.png
Views:	47
Size:	110.1 KB
ID:	160354  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #650 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

For Zakk- self proclaimed biggest fan of ABBA.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #651 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
Shorts in TF and holding.

cover some 1081 area. But no longs.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_1120__analysis.png
Views:	46
Size:	181.8 KB
ID:	160360  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #652 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
It took 24 hours to get paid. Nothing is more exciting than shorting bounces within a bearish trend.

" It's been only a couple of times over last 5 weeks when i tried long in CL. Otherwise shorts and shorts."

One may say 89 area is support based off yesterday and weekly charts. May be or may not. I am still short. I have not seen any evidence of buyers. However, CL can go back up without REAL eveidence of buyers like yesterday. It can and it will go without me.

Evidence of buyers is also a pretty discretionary decision. 90.60 to 89.20- one should know to cover some if short but no longs for me.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #653 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
It took 24 hours to get paid. Nothing is more exciting than shorting bounces within a bearish trend.

" It's been only a couple of times over last 5 weeks when i tried long in CL. Otherwise shorts and shorts."

Moved stop loss to 89.31, in case we have a flush down here. Added to shorts 89.70 area on A down confirmation. In a bearish trend A down has value. A up has no value unless we get couple of days of consecutive A ups. Nothing magical about 89.31. I do not want to give up more than 30 ticks of my short- that's all.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #654 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Shorts only concern is giving up potential gains in case of a reversal. Traders picking bottoms without EVIDENCE can loose their shirt.

I can handle giving up some of potential gains in case of a reversal. In case of a reversal there will be plenty of time to try long also.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #655 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

TF. Slow moving train.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_1404_decision.png
Views:	37
Size:	499.4 KB
ID:	160401  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #656 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

PL- reversion to the mean.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_1449_PL.png
Views:	40
Size:	101.6 KB
ID:	160410  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #657 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Most of the traders ( including myself) look for fast price action. I am not sure why because in my experience most money is made when price moves slowly without whipsaws in between.

In CL and TF there were no longs off ORH all day long. Shorts were put on all day at ORH . It just required patience.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #658 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

CNBC fast money crowd- especially Tim Seymour will have another chance today to say that world economy is not bad especially USA. It may be or may be not. I have no idea and do not care. All i know inflexible traders are getting taken out on stretchers. One day market is up 1.50% and next down again 1.5%.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_1509_dangerous.png
Views:	44
Size:	95.5 KB
ID:	160413  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #659 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Without buyers there are no sacred levels. Just in case if someone went long at 89 area. I have no idea if CL will bounce hard from 88.50, 88 etc. All i know selling is not over yet. Stop loss around 89.21 area and cover some. It feels like CL is ready to get FLUSHED down. If it gets flushed down - all good- if not all i have to do is give up some of potential gains.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_1526_shorts.png
Views:	39
Size:	118.0 KB
ID:	160425  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #660 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Question I am asking myself- Does it really matter if i was short from 1084 or 1087? But i was worried after i reshorted TF again around 1187 that this may not be a good entry. What if TF goes up another 4 points higher ? Totally useless fear and thinking.

I am trying to correct this kind of insistence on getting the best price. Damn TF hit 1072 area and i had already covered some at 1082 (lol). Instead of worrying about whether 1085 or 1087 is a better price ( which actually is totally random. TF could have gone to 1089 etc and then reverse) , i should be more focused on not covering in front of massive selling after lunch. Experienced traders were adding to their shorts and i was covering.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #661 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

At least i had sense not to try longs.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_1633.png
Views:	46
Size:	103.6 KB
ID:	160441   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_1636_iwm.png
Views:	31
Size:	99.9 KB
ID:	160442  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #662 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

No body home to receive CL delivery- so far. Holding shorts into Globex. Need flush down as shown from 10-02-2014 during Euro session. CL can bounce back up without flush down but i do not take counter trend trades without flush down.
CL can do couple of things.

1) Rotate between 88 and 89 area.

2) Continue down ward move.

3) Flush down and then reverse.

#1 is the hardest for shorts like mine from 89.01 area. Thinking #1 be in play, i covered some around 88.57 and in case #2 is in play, left some shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_1646_flush_down.png
Views:	43
Size:	79.6 KB
ID:	160443  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #663 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Why do i get excited when i see the strongest looking green candles within a bearish trend. I can not control my self. Why? because i like to short right in their face.
Not every green candle is bullish. If that's what trading was about- we all be happy.

NOTE: Be careful with these as i have shared my P&L many times to show that these are not 15 ticks stop loss wrapped in tiffany blue box set ups. These require wide enough stop loss to accomodate randomness. One never knows when enough longs will be lured in , gun will be fully loaded and then firing starts. My short in PL futures from yesterday is down so far 16 full points.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_1533_BOOM.png
Views:	52
Size:	114.8 KB
ID:	160452  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #664 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


mfbreakout View Post
At least i had sense not to try longs.

i agree that TF has been in a down trend since early sept. but for a year and a half on the chart it is really sideways. so at what point(my smaller green arrows) are you saying i can no longer keep shorting here and higher? the chart is a perfect time to raise that question as we seem to be at an inflection point. this might clear up how you treat chopping mkts if the trend is not overly clear.




mfbreakout View Post
No body home to receive CL delivery- so far. Holding shorts into Globex. Need flush down as shown from 10-02-2014 during Euro session. CL can bounce back up without flush down but i do not take counter trend trades without flush down.
CL can do couple of things.

1) Rotate between 88 and 89 area.

2) Continue down ward move.

3) Flush down and then reverse.

#1 is the hardest for shorts like mine from 89.01 area. Thinking #1 be in play, i covered some around 88.57 and in case #2 is in play, left some shorts.

if this was a flush down how come you weren't thinking longs as that would be the only way to counter trade? do you consider a flush by two strong waves down? the quickness at which they happen? the volume? do flushes down have large tails on the bars towards the bottoms of the flushes?


mfbreakout View Post
Why do i get excited when i see the strongest looking green candles within a bearish trend. I can not control my self. Why? because i like to short right in their face.
Not every green candle is bullish. If that's what trading was about- we all be happy.

NOTE: Be careful with these as i have shared my P&L many times to show that these are not 15 ticks stop loss wrapped in tiffany blue box set ups. These require wide enough stop loss to accomodate randomness. One never knows when enough longs will be lured in , gun will be fully loaded and then firing starts. My short in PL futures from yesterday is down so far 16 full points.

to me, this kinda seems flushy:



i know thats not really a question, but maybe your thoughts on that type of price action.

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to madLyfe for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #665 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Hi Madlyfe,

Q)" i agree that TF has been in a down trend since early sept. but for a year and a half on the chart it is really sideways. so at what point(my smaller green arrows) are you saying i can no longer keep shorting here and higher? the chart is a perfect time to raise that question as we seem to be at an inflection point. this might clear up how you treat chopping mkts if the trend is not overly clear"

a) I only trade Index like TF, NQ, ES etc once market is open at 9.30 am eastern time and market internals are giving us clues who has upper hand Buyers or Sellers. Approximately 70% of the time market rotates, neither buyers or sellers have upper hand. In other words market balance within ATR.

b) Days like today come about 30% of the time and that's why traders find it hard to trade. Our brains get used to price action which happens 70% of the time- rotation/balance/choppy markets.

c) I start every day assuming it will be a rotation/choppy day. Since these days happen to represent 70% of yearly trading days, it's a safe bet to start the day. Market internals do not firm up enough to give a clear signal till 15-20 minutes from NY open. If after 15-20% minutes there is no clear direction, i just try to get 4-5 points on the day. ATR of TF is around 11-14 points.

d) TF has been in a down trend since sept but that does not mean i just come in thinking i will short the market. I do not do anything till market internals are set and give good signals. Just couple of days ago, TF ran 1.4% intra day to the upside. Market internals were all +ve all day till the end. There were no shorts for me on that day.

In summary, markets are choppy for 70% of the days and thus rotates within ATR. Which days will be choppy and which will be trending- i let market internals decide.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 7 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #666 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

" if this was a flush down how come you weren't thinking longs as that would be the only way to counter trade? do you consider a flush by two strong waves down? the quickness at which they happen? the volume? do flushes down have large tails on the bars towards the bottoms of the flushes?"

I look at 5 minutes sell bars ( lately i have been testing 15 minutes sell bars). I want biggest volume bars. Once price moves above those 5 minutes sell bars- it's a reversal and i try to go long.

NOTE: This flush down concept - i only use for CL. Metals ( GC, HG, SI) and soft commodities like CC, KC, ZW do not have any volume to speak off. Index like TF, NQ etc. i have not found flush down set ups yet. There are no really differentiating volume bars within them. Flush down is unique to CL , NG.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_2219_reversal.png
Views:	43
Size:	91.9 KB
ID:	160481   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-07_2222_flush_final.png
Views:	40
Size:	280.9 KB
ID:	160482  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 7 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #667 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Samm caps in Danger Zone by Michael Batnick.

"
Today I want to bring some data to one of the simplest tools a technical analyst has at his/her disposal, the 200-day moving average. This line shows us a big picture view of how a security is behaving. Simply put, a rising 200-day moving average is indicative of an uptrend, a flat moving average shows no clear trend and a declining moving average indicates sellers are in control.

Currently, for the first time since November 2012, the 200-day moving average for the Russell 2000 is declining and small-caps are now firmly below the 200-day moving average.

"So we’re below an imaginary line, so what?"

Well, I looked at the data going back to 2000 and whether or not you’re a believer in technical analysis is irrelevant, the data speaks for itself.

1) The average daily return when the Russell 2000 is above its 200-day moving average is 0.13% vs. -0.15% when it’s below.

2) Volatility, as measured by standard deviation is basically half when small-caps are above their 200-day vs. when they are below.

3) There have been 33 instances where the Russell 2000 fell 4% in a single day when trading below the 200-day vs. only 4 occasions when trading above.

Mid-caps are also below their 200-day for the first time in 23 months and the S&P 500, which hasn’t seen this level since November 2012 is now just 1.5% away. While this doesn’t mean stocks crash, it does mean that we can expect some elevated volatility and subpar returns until stocks can reclaim their 200-day and push it higher.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-08_0753_sma.png
Views:	35
Size:	106.1 KB
ID:	160514   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-08_0803_danger_zone.png
Views:	31
Size:	213.4 KB
ID:	160515  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #668 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

" CL can do couple of things.

1) Rotate between 88 and 89 area.

2) Continue down ward move.

3) Flush down and then reverse."


#2 and #3 got played out during Globex session. Covered shorts around 87.75 area and flat.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #669 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Is anybody else trading? It gets tiring to post every day without some participation. Hi, if no charts how about some nice videos?

I can tell you with 100% guarantee that without participation , you will not learn a thing ( if that's what objective is). I take snap shots of my trades for my personal records and post them here for others. However without some participation it looks like a PEEP show.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #670 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


mfbreakout View Post
" CL can do couple of things.

1) Rotate between 88 and 89 area.

2) Continue down ward move.

3) Flush down and then reverse."


#2 and #3 got played out during Globex session. Covered shorts around 87.75 area and flat.

ty for your replies above @mfbreakout. i see why you exited on a flush down there. that def looks like a flush to me as well. would you have considered a long/scalp at either the break of the second(lowest) flush bar? we didnt make it above the first(highest) flush bar so that wouldnt be considered. or do you really want to get above both where volume started?


dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 3 users say Thank You to madLyfe for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #671 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Hi Madlyfe,

See the chart. test with both 5 and 15 minutes bars. 5 minutes seems to be good enough for this one set up.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-08_1211_madlyne.png
Views:	61
Size:	218.3 KB
ID:	160591  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #672 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

How can a trader timing be off, trade location be off and he still has a chance to make it?



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-08_1244_trend.png
Views:	60
Size:	104.7 KB
ID:	160615  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #673 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


mfbreakout View Post
How can a trader timing be off, trade location be off and he still has a chance to make it?

where is your 'stop adding to short point' in PL and then your unwinding position point if it continues higher?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to madLyfe for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #674 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


madLyfe View Post
where is your 'stop adding to short point' in PL and then your unwinding position point if it continues higher?

Stop loss is always a disaster stop loss which amounts to 1 time or 2 times of ATR depending upon position size of the trade, what other trades i have on, how they are working. In summary, it's not just one individual trade risk. It has to be looked at within portfolio risk.

PL has pulled back to 1264 from 1282. Obviously, if magically i had shorted 1282, it would have been a much better trade location. I however do not day dream. One has to put on the trade, get skin in the game and then set ups, trade location, risk management etc. become clear. Lot of traders just day dream. With this trade and many other s over last 4 weeks, i have acquired certain feel for PL and it's all getting stored in a magic box.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #675 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


mfbreakout View Post
Stop loss is always a disaster stop loss which amounts to 1 time or 2 times of ATR depending upon position size of the trade, what other trades i have on, how they are working. In summary, it's not just one individual trade risk. It has to be looked at within portfolio risk.

ya i was just trying to figure out your puke point for PL on that chart. so if all your other instruments are doing well for the day that changes how you continue on and manage 1 particular instrument? even if it may still be valid?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to madLyfe for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #676 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


madLyfe View Post
ya i was just trying to figure out your puke point for PL on that chart. so if all your other instruments are doing well for the day that changes how you continue on and manage 1 particular instrument? even if it may still be valid?

When a trader has dozen of so called loosing trades turn into GOLD or just break even, confidence grows and keeps on growing. In the end trading is a confidence game.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #677 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Why would anyone be taking long positions into the close yesterday and make a bet that ES, TF etc. will bounce on FOMC minutes news is beyond me. First of all they had to endure NO PRICE movement during entire Globex session. Then they have to endure push down at NY open and finally at 2 pm FOMC minutes release and up and up.

I would rather wait for the main news and trade accordingly.

$ down , time to go long GC.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-08_1426_GC.png
Views:	46
Size:	215.2 KB
ID:	160625  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #678 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

I have no idea what did FOMC minutes were but i can read price action. Long TF and staying long. I wish we had FOMC news release once a month. We wait , wait and wait and then BOOM per reaction to the news.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-08_1432_FOMC_longs.png
Views:	40
Size:	114.0 KB
ID:	160626  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #679 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Dont trade FOMC news days without $.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-08_1457_$.png
Views:	39
Size:	78.1 KB
ID:	160633  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #680 (permalink)
 ness1g 
boston ma
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninja
Trading: futures, stocks
 
Posts: 212 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 384 given, 158 received

Pitchfork at work
That was my day
target at yellow box at midline of pitchfork
then price reverse as usual and captured that too

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	10-8.PNG
Views:	43
Size:	223.6 KB
ID:	160634   Click image for larger version

Name:	10-8 a.PNG
Views:	41
Size:	625.3 KB
ID:	160635   Click image for larger version

Name:	10-8-revrs.PNG
Views:	44
Size:	214.6 KB
ID:	160636  
The following 3 users say Thank You to ness1g for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #681 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


ness1g View Post
Pitchfork at work
That was my day
target at yellow box at midline of pitchfork
then price reverse as usual and captured that too

Listening to music improves trading.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #682 (permalink)
 ness1g 
boston ma
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninja
Trading: futures, stocks
 
Posts: 212 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 384 given, 158 received

No only you have a good eye for trading but also for fine Lebanese women

mfbreakout View Post
Listening to music improves trading.



The following user says Thank You to ness1g for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #683 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Gold cleared 1220 yesterday. Still holding some . If i take a short in GC, stop loss will be above previous week high 1 times ATR.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_0403_Weekly.png
Views:	35
Size:	75.6 KB
ID:	160702   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-08_1426_GC.png
Views:	51
Size:	215.2 KB
ID:	160703  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #684 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

NG- long within last couple of weeks balance area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_0759_NG.png
Views:	30
Size:	118.8 KB
ID:	160717  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #685 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
Gold cleared 1220 yesterday. Still holding some . If i take a short in GC, stop loss will be above previous week high 1 times ATR.


Out 1233 and short. Not looking for major pullback to the down side. But 4-6 points in GC is good. Looks like ORH will be around 1234.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_0403_Weekly.png
Views:	25
Size:	75.6 KB
ID:	160722  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #686 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

What is common Sense? In trading terms this mroning i asked following question

" Will CACFUTURE along with other Europen traders will be initiating new longs in TF at 1100? "

Common sense tells me NO. How about putting on shorts? May be or may be not because it's different for every trader.
So based off CACFUTURE test and more importantly Mark Fisher ACD, i shorted around 1095 and held till ORL etc. This is called common sense trading. Every tool we have at our disposal to put on a trade comes after common sense.

Still holding shorts and no longs for me. I have covered quite a bit as i do not like to day dream.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_0943_tf.png
Views:	49
Size:	145.6 KB
ID:	160757  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #687 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
NG- long within last couple of weeks balance area.


Context was right, timing was off and now NG trade looks like it was a sure thing. Nothing is for sure. Smaller the time frame more uncertain and random the out come.

In CL, have been short for 4 hours and still holding. In my experience more lines and short time frame on a chart in general means a confused trader. This is not appilcable for every trader out there but at least it was for me and the traders i talk with about trading.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_1045_long.png
Views:	35
Size:	111.4 KB
ID:	160768  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #688 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
What is common Sense? In trading terms this mroning i asked following question

" Will CACFUTURE along with other Europen traders will be initiating new longs in TF at 1100? "

Common sense tells me NO. How about putting on shorts? May be or may be not because it's different for every trader.
So based off CACFUTURE test and more importantly Mark Fisher ACD, i shorted around 1095 and held till ORL etc. This is called common sense trading. Every tool we have at our disposal to put on a trade comes after common sense.

Still holding shorts and no longs for me. I have covered quite a bit as i do not like to day dream.


Traders who make forecasts are STUNNED and DONE. Added to shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_1103_mapper.png
Views:	38
Size:	373.5 KB
ID:	160790  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #689 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
Traders who make forecasts are STUNNED and DONE. Added to shorts.


Cover some 1067 and still holding rest. Why cover and why still holding shorts? Why no longs?

Answer to why no longs is pretty obvious. Why cover is just a function of booking some ptofits after 22 points. Holding shorts becuase there are no buyers. Pace of down move has slowed down after TF down being 2.37% so far but selling is not over yet.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #690 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Long time ago a trader told me he believes in ONE GOD, ONE WOMAN and ONE TYPE BIAS for intra day trading. What he meant by one type of bias is that he is either bullish or bearish within his time frame.

He trades smaller time frame 15 to 30 minutes. He does not turn from being bullish to bearsih unless something really convince him whether be it price action, news etc.

It took me a long time to grasp this and i thank him for that. Basically i used to try longs and shorts within 15 to 30 minutes time frame. I will be saying to myself , bears are in control and then 10 minutes later Bulls are in control. I understood this once i start paying attention to algos/HFT games being played on short time frame. Just beacuse price had moved 40 ticks to the upside does not mean that suddenly bulls are in control when CL is on track to get pushed down another 200 ticks.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_1330_bounces.png
Views:	47
Size:	100.0 KB
ID:	160814  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 8 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #691 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Is there anything up in trading universe? Long CC . Have been building position since yesterday.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_1315cc.png
Views:	46
Size:	90.7 KB
ID:	160825  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #692 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

Still holding shorts in TF.

Made a mistake in CL and then corrected it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_1500_OPC.png
Views:	71
Size:	121.4 KB
ID:	160833  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #693 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

One can learn a lot from CNBC business channel if one keeps an open mind and see what some of the JOKERS are saying. Then in between we get some serious traders and thinkers to pick. I have learned more from JOKERS - by the way.

I can not wait to see the headlines and listen to some analysis later today. It's entertainment and some great trading lessons packed in ONE. I wonder if Najarian brothers will once again use EBOLA scare as one of the reasons. They been using it atleast for a week now. Also looking forward to Tim Semyor explanation of todays price action as he was pounding his chest and everything else yesterday about his 6 months old hypothesis that everytning in the world is pretty good. He basically said there is nothing to worry about. I agree. But S&P is up only 5% YTD and couple of wrong moves by these managers and their YTD performance will not be looking good.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_1008_beholder.png
Views:	52
Size:	249.5 KB
ID:	160838  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #694 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

KC has been teasing me for months.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_1537_KC.png
Views:	40
Size:	95.4 KB
ID:	160843  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #695 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
Still holding shorts in TF.

Made a mistake in CL and then corrected it.


CL just hit 84.06. Why would CL will consolidates for hours and then give it up 200 ticks in 40 minutes after being down 200 ticks already? I have no idea. We just try to trade probabilities.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 6 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #696 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

One of the benefits of keeping track of different opportunities while day trading 2 core instruements is that opportunities are constantly showing up. I day trade CL, NG and TF almost every day and trade others when nice set ups line up. It also allows trader not to waste too much time obsessing and analyzing just one instruement. I used to spend hours just looking at CL and analyzing every twist and turn of CL price movement. There is no benefit in doing so.

Short PL.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_2136_PL.png
Views:	41
Size:	111.5 KB
ID:	160897  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #697 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
CL just hit 84.06. Why would CL will consolidates for hours and then give it up 200 ticks in 40 minutes after being down 200 ticks already? I have no idea. We just try to trade probabilities.

When will I stop shorting CL on bounces?

If news comes out that OPEC will be cutting down her production then shorts in CL will be over . Oil traders were expecting news from Saudi Arabia 2 weeks ago that she will cut down CL production. Instead of cutting down production, Saudi Arabia decided to cut down prices. Traders expecting a reversal of CL bearish trend lost their last hope.

In summary we need macro catalyst for reversal. Without macro catalyst, every bounce is shortable.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #698 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


mfbreakout View Post
Still holding shorts in TF.

Made a mistake in CL and then corrected it.

Everytime i think about covering my short- it gets pushed down another 100 ticks like there is no tomorrow. Pretty amazing. Traders who been trying to go long over last 4 weeks in CL have been mostly on the wrong side. They got crumbs in the name of reading price action.

Over last 4 weeks i got asked a lot as to how come i keep adding to my shorts even when price was moving to the upside against me? Simple answer is just because price is moving up does not mean it's due to REAL buying. I find it counter productive to try to figure out as to exactly where CL dead cat bounces will stop , price will reverse and resume it's macro bearish trend. It's much easier to identify trend and not worry about being precise with location. That's the beauty of trading with trend. It allows a trader lot of wiggle room provided he/she does not try to be cute with STOP LOSS.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #699 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

When SOFTS like KC, CC etc move watch out. I am still trying to get used to long hold times and then 3-10% moves in one direction.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-09_1315cc.png
Views:	47
Size:	90.7 KB
ID:	160934   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-10_0648_KC__CC_long.png
Views:	39
Size:	133.2 KB
ID:	160935  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #700 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received

3 hours of intense trading. No wonder trading is addictive. With prices moving up and down at the speed of light along with P&L, i still do not know on days like today what causes me to put on a certain size for a certain trade, how i come up with targets, hold time etc. Intutively we all know where certain levels are. I had no way of knowing in advance that i will be shorting at 1062 area and then hold for not ticks but points. But with internals being weak, it felt like right thing to do.

All i know context has to be first and wide stop loss so that i can focus on trading.

1) short ZS from yesterday. Cover most and still holding some.

2) Short PL from yesterday. Cover most and still holding some.

3) Long CC and still holding some.

4) Short CL 84.48, reversed and long 84.62 , out 85.30 area. Short 85.32 area. Out 84.50 area. I was smiling as CL was going up not because i was long but because i like to short bounces within bearish trend.

5) Short TF. Out flat. Will short TF into bounces but if it's just stays around 1055 area, it will be a tough short. Will look into after lunch. No longs for me unless everything just turns GREEN from market internals side.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-10-10_1048_final.png
Views:	43
Size:	212.8 KB
ID:	160977  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:

Closed Thread

futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > COMMON SENSE


Last Updated on November 27, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing

HIRO Indicator by Spotgamma in Bookmap w/Brent Kochuba @ SpotGamma

Elite only

NEW BlackBird Features + FOREX Support w/Jeremy T