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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #661 (permalink)
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
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At least i had sense not to try longs.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #662 (permalink)
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No body home to receive CL delivery- so far. Holding shorts into Globex. Need flush down as shown from 10-02-2014 during Euro session. CL can bounce back up without flush down but i do not take counter trend trades without flush down.
CL can do couple of things.

1) Rotate between 88 and 89 area.

2) Continue down ward move.

3) Flush down and then reverse.

#1 is the hardest for shorts like mine from 89.01 area. Thinking #1 be in play, i covered some around 88.57 and in case #2 is in play, left some shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #663 (permalink)
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Why do i get excited when i see the strongest looking green candles within a bearish trend. I can not control my self. Why? because i like to short right in their face.
Not every green candle is bullish. If that's what trading was about- we all be happy.

NOTE: Be careful with these as i have shared my P&L many times to show that these are not 15 ticks stop loss wrapped in tiffany blue box set ups. These require wide enough stop loss to accomodate randomness. One never knows when enough longs will be lured in , gun will be fully loaded and then firing starts. My short in PL futures from yesterday is down so far 16 full points.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #664 (permalink)
Des Moines, Iowa
 
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mfbreakout View Post
At least i had sense not to try longs.

i agree that TF has been in a down trend since early sept. but for a year and a half on the chart it is really sideways. so at what point(my smaller green arrows) are you saying i can no longer keep shorting here and higher? the chart is a perfect time to raise that question as we seem to be at an inflection point. this might clear up how you treat chopping mkts if the trend is not overly clear.




mfbreakout View Post
No body home to receive CL delivery- so far. Holding shorts into Globex. Need flush down as shown from 10-02-2014 during Euro session. CL can bounce back up without flush down but i do not take counter trend trades without flush down.
CL can do couple of things.

1) Rotate between 88 and 89 area.

2) Continue down ward move.

3) Flush down and then reverse.

#1 is the hardest for shorts like mine from 89.01 area. Thinking #1 be in play, i covered some around 88.57 and in case #2 is in play, left some shorts.

if this was a flush down how come you weren't thinking longs as that would be the only way to counter trade? do you consider a flush by two strong waves down? the quickness at which they happen? the volume? do flushes down have large tails on the bars towards the bottoms of the flushes?


mfbreakout View Post
Why do i get excited when i see the strongest looking green candles within a bearish trend. I can not control my self. Why? because i like to short right in their face.
Not every green candle is bullish. If that's what trading was about- we all be happy.

NOTE: Be careful with these as i have shared my P&L many times to show that these are not 15 ticks stop loss wrapped in tiffany blue box set ups. These require wide enough stop loss to accomodate randomness. One never knows when enough longs will be lured in , gun will be fully loaded and then firing starts. My short in PL futures from yesterday is down so far 16 full points.

to me, this kinda seems flushy:



i know thats not really a question, but maybe your thoughts on that type of price action.

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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  #665 (permalink)
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Hi Madlyfe,

Q)" i agree that TF has been in a down trend since early sept. but for a year and a half on the chart it is really sideways. so at what point(my smaller green arrows) are you saying i can no longer keep shorting here and higher? the chart is a perfect time to raise that question as we seem to be at an inflection point. this might clear up how you treat chopping mkts if the trend is not overly clear"

a) I only trade Index like TF, NQ, ES etc once market is open at 9.30 am eastern time and market internals are giving us clues who has upper hand Buyers or Sellers. Approximately 70% of the time market rotates, neither buyers or sellers have upper hand. In other words market balance within ATR.

b) Days like today come about 30% of the time and that's why traders find it hard to trade. Our brains get used to price action which happens 70% of the time- rotation/balance/choppy markets.

c) I start every day assuming it will be a rotation/choppy day. Since these days happen to represent 70% of yearly trading days, it's a safe bet to start the day. Market internals do not firm up enough to give a clear signal till 15-20 minutes from NY open. If after 15-20% minutes there is no clear direction, i just try to get 4-5 points on the day. ATR of TF is around 11-14 points.

d) TF has been in a down trend since sept but that does not mean i just come in thinking i will short the market. I do not do anything till market internals are set and give good signals. Just couple of days ago, TF ran 1.4% intra day to the upside. Market internals were all +ve all day till the end. There were no shorts for me on that day.

In summary, markets are choppy for 70% of the days and thus rotates within ATR. Which days will be choppy and which will be trending- i let market internals decide.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #666 (permalink)
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" if this was a flush down how come you weren't thinking longs as that would be the only way to counter trade? do you consider a flush by two strong waves down? the quickness at which they happen? the volume? do flushes down have large tails on the bars towards the bottoms of the flushes?"

I look at 5 minutes sell bars ( lately i have been testing 15 minutes sell bars). I want biggest volume bars. Once price moves above those 5 minutes sell bars- it's a reversal and i try to go long.

NOTE: This flush down concept - i only use for CL. Metals ( GC, HG, SI) and soft commodities like CC, KC, ZW do not have any volume to speak off. Index like TF, NQ etc. i have not found flush down set ups yet. There are no really differentiating volume bars within them. Flush down is unique to CL , NG.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #667 (permalink)
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Samm caps in Danger Zone by Michael Batnick.

"
Today I want to bring some data to one of the simplest tools a technical analyst has at his/her disposal, the 200-day moving average. This line shows us a big picture view of how a security is behaving. Simply put, a rising 200-day moving average is indicative of an uptrend, a flat moving average shows no clear trend and a declining moving average indicates sellers are in control.

Currently, for the first time since November 2012, the 200-day moving average for the Russell 2000 is declining and small-caps are now firmly below the 200-day moving average.

"So we’re below an imaginary line, so what?"

Well, I looked at the data going back to 2000 and whether or not you’re a believer in technical analysis is irrelevant, the data speaks for itself.

1) The average daily return when the Russell 2000 is above its 200-day moving average is 0.13% vs. -0.15% when it’s below.

2) Volatility, as measured by standard deviation is basically half when small-caps are above their 200-day vs. when they are below.

3) There have been 33 instances where the Russell 2000 fell 4% in a single day when trading below the 200-day vs. only 4 occasions when trading above.

Mid-caps are also below their 200-day for the first time in 23 months and the S&P 500, which hasn’t seen this level since November 2012 is now just 1.5% away. While this doesn’t mean stocks crash, it does mean that we can expect some elevated volatility and subpar returns until stocks can reclaim their 200-day and push it higher.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #668 (permalink)
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" CL can do couple of things.

1) Rotate between 88 and 89 area.

2) Continue down ward move.

3) Flush down and then reverse."


#2 and #3 got played out during Globex session. Covered shorts around 87.75 area and flat.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #669 (permalink)
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Is anybody else trading? It gets tiring to post every day without some participation. Hi, if no charts how about some nice videos?

I can tell you with 100% guarantee that without participation , you will not learn a thing ( if that's what objective is). I take snap shots of my trades for my personal records and post them here for others. However without some participation it looks like a PEEP show.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #670 (permalink)
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
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Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
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Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
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mfbreakout View Post
" CL can do couple of things.

1) Rotate between 88 and 89 area.

2) Continue down ward move.

3) Flush down and then reverse."


#2 and #3 got played out during Globex session. Covered shorts around 87.75 area and flat.

ty for your replies above @mfbreakout. i see why you exited on a flush down there. that def looks like a flush to me as well. would you have considered a long/scalp at either the break of the second(lowest) flush bar? we didnt make it above the first(highest) flush bar so that wouldnt be considered. or do you really want to get above both where volume started?


dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
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