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COMMON SENSE


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Updated November 27th 2014 by mfbreakout
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COMMON SENSE

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  #611 (permalink)
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Why i did not go long yesterday or today? Holding some shorts into globex session.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #612 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Why i did not go long yesterday or today? Holding some shorts into globex session.

Added to shorts. There is nothing better than BOUNCES within a macro down trend. Someone recently got banned from futures.io (formerly BMT) but he/she just will not give up. Here is one for his/her likes pleasure. I got e-mail saying that my trades are after the fact. Real traders call out trades ahead of time. levels and game plan is given a day before with low heat set ups etc and on and on.

I told him " I like heat considering it gets cold in Boston. He/She should go ahead and give all his money to whatever this trade calling service is to manage for him/her. With his free time he should have plenty of time to watch REALTY TV".



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #613 (permalink)
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PL



mfbreakout View Post
It's helpful to first look at big picture with weekly and daily chart. No lines on it. Just chart. I was using 21 EMA for some time on smaller time frame like 5 and 15 minutes to get some sense on a shorter time frame, Now, i am testing 2 EMA's .Both 30 EMA's. One shows high of 30 ema and the other shows low of 30 EMA. Damon Pavlatos did a webinar at futures.io (formerly BMT) couple of weeks ago. He uses them, so i am testing them.

However, any tool like MA, MACD etc comes after the context. Context first everything latter to just feel good or feel in control. Attached 2 charts, shows that a trader should be able to trade and know just by looking at them as to what is the trend. One does not need any tools to trade this chart. Tools just help with execution little bit better. Problem is that when a trader looks at weekly, daily chart for trend and then uses tools on a smaller time frame for execution- there is a conflict. ONLY way i know to tackle this is to keep Average True Range of an instruement in mind. If ATR for PL is 20 points and it's already down 20 points on the day, i am not shorting it. I have to wait for a bounce. How about longs? There are none. I have moved away from trading both sides intra day. For example, in this example of Platnium, if i try long, it will be for a SCALP. Since, i am trading 4-6 instruements every day, i do not have much time left for scalps. When i was just trading CL all day for 4 years, i used to do that. That was not good. I wish i was trading at least 2-3 instruements right from the start. There were more opportunities in PL over last 3 months than any other instruement but people talk about trading ES for 2 full points all day with lines on the chart that make it look like that they are solving a solution for WORLD PEACE.



" If ATR for PL is 20 points and it's already down 20 points on the day, i am not shorting it. I have to wait for a bounce"
Short PL into bounce.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Process

Hunting process. It's pretty simple. We buy strongest instruements on pullbacks and sell weakest into bounces.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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NKD longs not looking good.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Flush down

Flush down and beast is exhausated. Looking for exhausation/impulsive up move. Impulsive up move and then reversal is a good sign to see if up move is over.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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A good production from BBC about trading. Ex- pit traders have the hardest time as electronic trading took over and they needed to change. Most of them could not. In my experience Dday trading individual stocks is very difficult. Swing trading stocks makes more sense.

In the documentary- T3 live trader Scott is shown. I have not known a more disciplined trader and more hard working and has been day trading for around 10 years. When i saw him and others like him at T3 live, SMB capital looking at blinking prices and competing against algos with tightest stop loss one can imagine- i decided to try hand at futures. Every documentary, every educational material- all talk about moving super fast otherwise missing a trade is totally opposite to my experience. I do not take any trade where i have to move fast. We see it every day, price just getting stuck for 15 minutes etc. There is ALWAYS plenty of time to take a trade. Fast traders typically are in a rush to book profits also. They always seem to be scared. I have no desire to compete with HFT. If i want speed, i should become algo trader. Discretionary trading has other advantages.

NOTE: Epsiode 2 is available on youtube.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Time for vacation. I will be away for next 10 days.

Trades since long off 88.40 area.

1) Out 89.30 area from longs. Afetr 140 ticks move up from bottom. I am ONLY interested in shorts.

2) Short 89.50, 89.70 before NY open. Cover 89.30.

3) Short 89.80, 90, 90.20, 90.50, 90.70. area. Cover around 90.14 and still holding shorts. A particular area is not important for me except general area. I have no way of knowing whether 90.20 is an area where CL will reverse or 90.70 ? Now that CL is at 89.85, it looks like that 90.70 area is the best area. It looks so obvious. ONLY thing obvious to me is that from 88.10 to 90 is around 200 ticks. Higher the monkey goes- i add bigger position size because the odds keep getting better as price moves up.

In the BBC trading video episode #2 it's pretty obvious that every trader is getting hosed for $200 here and then $300 there. They getting cut by the randomness and have no conviction or staying power. They are looking for PRECISION. They put so much pressure on themselves that it's beyond any discretionary trader capacity. ONLY computers/algos can pick points and churn money all day because they are dealing in nano second for ticks. At least i find it impossible to predict most of the time ( sometime i just get lucky due to randomness) that moment i take a trade it has move in my direction in the next 5, 15 minutes with little HEAT.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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I seek HEAT and PRAY for an instruement which is in a bearsih trend bounces . Can you imagine if CL was just stuck between 88.18 and 89 all day? One just has to know not to seek HEAT when it's 104 degrees out side.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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CL came to 89.38 and in next 12 minutes back up to 90.08. This is a good example of a trade i will never take and have no interest in. I like trades where everyone gets put to sleep. I build position at my own time without any rush or pressure and then BOOM.

Unfortunately, some traders seek and waste lot of time in trying to understand and trade moves like these ( i also did for some time). When you hear a trader saying he made 60 ticks in 5 minutes- you can tell the length of his trading career with a pretty good accuracy.

Why such a trade is not a good trade for a discretionary trader? There are many reasons but one of the reason is that move is so fast that traders who matter had no time to build a position.
Look how long last night CL was stuck around 90.90 area and how long it consolidated around 88.20 area? Positions were put on. Bets were being made. This 89.40 area bounce is a PURE sign of algos in play.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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November 27, 2014


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