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COMMON SENSE
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COMMON SENSE

  #51 (permalink)
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cl

CL is doining her thing. Reshort after API report. Reaction to DOE report tomorrow will be interesting to say the

least. My favourite day to trade CL.

Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-2014-07-22_0855_short.png   COMMON SENSE-2014-07-22_1440_long.png   COMMON SENSE-2014-07-22_1652_reshort.png  
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  #52 (permalink)
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Disbelief

Traders using MA etc. are stunned and in disbelief with CL moves. Yesterday 90 ticks move from 102 area after 30

ticks range SONG and DANCE for majority of the day .

The short covering pushed CL into 103.40 area into Asian session and today there are NO TAKERS.

Everyone like to be a PRICE ACTION trader but then they count candles all day and get surprised.

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  #53 (permalink)
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RULE #1


" My favourite day to trade CL".

Regardless of the day , have to follow the RULES. Feeling the pain for not following the RULES.

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COMMON SENSE-2014-07-23_1122_short.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; July 23rd, 2014 at 01:08 PM.
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  #54 (permalink)
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longs

Fortunately longs in TF paid off.

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  #55 (permalink)
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reversion to the mean


mfbreakout View Post
" My favourite day to trade CL".

Regardless of the day , have to follow the RULES. Feeling the pain for not following the RULES.



Added size to short around 103.22 for reversion to the mean and BOOM. Nothing wrong with adding to so called looser if RISK is within ones comfort zone but then it's not for everyone.

If ones goal is to make 20 ticks etc. then tight stop loss is the way to go. I tried this approach for many years and i just could not compete with algos.


Last edited by mfbreakout; July 23rd, 2014 at 01:11 PM.
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  #56 (permalink)
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Level 11

Q) A fellow trader e-mailed me asking why i shorted 102.54, add to short 102.90 etc. when Level 11 etc. were

showing buyers.


A) I get headache when i look at anything which moves at a fast pace like Delta foot print etc. If i look at them
all i get at the end of the day is sweaty arm pits, dry mouth, heart poinding fast and on and on.
It's not worth to me plus i have not found a trader who is clearing more than scalps while looking at so called order flow. I am holding trades for hours. There is no way i would be able to hold a trade while looking at level 11 etc.

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  #57 (permalink)
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ZS

Violated RULE # 1 in ZS also. Took a short off ORL area. Paid for it.

2 trades since then per RULES paid off.

1) Short reversion to the mean.

2) A up confirmed pullback long.

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COMMON SENSE-2014-07-23_1128_zs.png   COMMON SENSE-2014-07-23_1412_a_up_puulback.png  
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  #58 (permalink)
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A up pullback


mfbreakout View Post
Added size to short around 103.22 for reversion to the mean and BOOM. Nothing wrong with adding to so called looser if RISK is within ones comfort zone but then it's not for everyone.

If ones goal is to make 20 ticks etc. then tight stop loss is the way to go. I tried this approach for many years and i just could not compete with algos.


let's say i was not aware of what can happen on a day when A up is confirmed. What would i be feeling with CL back up at 103.12 with fully loaded short position with some PIE IN THE SKY targets?

Luckily i am aware of that. Out flat 103.09.

Trading day is over and now it's analyst time to fantasize as to why CL did what it did today. Whatever pre market fantasy i had sure did not work out.

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COMMON SENSE-2014-07-23_1409_pullback_long.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; July 23rd, 2014 at 03:40 PM.
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  #59 (permalink)
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indicators

Over the years after searching high and low for various indicators, it seems to me from other traders posts and my

own trading that it does two things.

1) Reduces the potential gains.

2) Get a trader brain wired for a certain outcome within a short time period. For example posts like
grabbed 24 ticks in 5 minutes, snagged 16 ticks in 2 minutes and on and on are pretty common. I was the same way without realizing
that this kind of behavior will take years to get rid off or in some cases never.



Short with a long hold time. Added to short arond 102.80 on bounce from 102.60 area.

Cover some 102.21.


Today A down is confirmed , so i plan to reshort any bounces to 102.90 to 103.20 area. Otherwise holding runner to see where she goes. Beyond 100 ticks move, i typically try not to look too far into the future but 101.50 will be nice.

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COMMON SENSE-2014-07-24_1040_short.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; July 24th, 2014 at 01:45 PM.
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  #60 (permalink)
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What to Do?


Stay away from any method/indicator which SCALPS on a regular basis. I scalp when that's all one can do.

For example, due to FB blow out earnings last night plus host of other bang out earnings from other companies
I was all overly excited and thus fully loaded in TF this morning. But the day turned out to be a 6 points gains. One has to be flexible and have some contextual frame work in mind to have a chance.


On the other hand GOLD had some potential but as usual long hold time.

Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-2014-07-24_0552_boom.png   COMMON SENSE-2014-07-24_1049_reshort.png   COMMON SENSE-2014-07-24_0523_short.png   COMMON SENSE-2014-07-24_0547_box.png  
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