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COMMON SENSE
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COMMON SENSE

  #571 (permalink)
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Trading

Nothing is moving at a pace i would like or the direction. Time to listen to Wiilie and chill out. Staying with shorts. Cover some.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #572 (permalink)
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Trading

I was surprised that TF moved 15 points to the upside off ORL. There were no longs for me. Just shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #573 (permalink)
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CL


No surprises from CL but no longs for me. Just shorts. I am not betting that CL may not go higher. I use ATR of 160 to 200 ticks for CL. So, there may be still room left for CL to move higher. A trader has to recognize that and trade accordingly. Some times, CL moves beyond 200 ticks in one direction also but it's not common. On Friday CL pulled back from 93.86 area , who knows from where it will pullback today- if at all. I try to trade probabilities.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; September 29th, 2014 at 02:32 PM.
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  #574 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
No surprises from CL but no longs for me. Just shorts. I am not betting that CL may not go higher. I use ATR of 160 to 200 ticks for CL. So, there may be still room left for CL to move higher. A trader has to recognize that and trade accordingly. Some times, CL moves beyond 200 ticks in one direction also but it's not common. On Friday CL pulled back from 93.86 area , who knows from where it will pullback today- if at all. I try to trade probabilities.

Well CL did not had FLUSH up to the upside, just slow up move with 20-30 ticks pullbacks. These slow up moves without Volume and much of a pullback are tough to trade. One never knows how high it will go and when the pullback will come. I am still holding my shorts from 94.25 area.

Got lucky with TF. Based off -ve market internals my shorts worked out. I was planning to add to shorts but due to short position in CL decided to cover shorts around 1108.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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NG

" They all have one thing in common except NG. They are in a bearish trend on any time frame."



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Trading

The November crude oil daily value has risen over the past four trading days. The market, however, remains within the 8999-to-9412 three-week balance high. On Friday, September 26, 2014, crude oil spiked higher during the final hour of the pit session and came within thirty ticks of that 9412 three-week balance high.

When a volatile market such as crude oil trades near or outside a balance range extreme, the following are the two most likely scenarios:

Trade outside the balance extreme and accelerate
Trade outside or near the balance extreme, get rejected, and then begin a rotation to the opposite end of the balance range
If the market gains acceptance above the 9412 three-week balance high, it may test the next 9507 reference. With acceptance above the 9507 reference, the market may test the 9717 reference.

If the market fails to gain traction above the 9412 balance-bracket high, then the market may begin a rotation back down to the 8988 balance low.

NOTE: This note from Just Joe Charts has lot of IF and MAY. If there is acceptance above 94.12 , 95.07 may get tested and so on. All, i know i am not putting on a new long at highs. If taking shorts, one just have to be aware of that ranges get tested and shorts around 94.20 to 94.50 area require wide stop loss.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; September 29th, 2014 at 05:46 PM.
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  #577 (permalink)
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Trading

Nikkie. Long off ORL.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #578 (permalink)
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Trading

CC bullish trend is intact. Added to long today on pullback.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Auction Market Theory

It's time to visit one of the most important videos regarding trading as far i am concerned. As usual when i first found this video i had following responses;

1) I was amazed that a 14 year old kid can produce and explain auction market theory in such a simple way. I had read and watched dozen of books, webinars but this is the best.

2) Since i was stressed out during this period, i said to myself that i have no talent for trading. Look at this 14 year old kid and look at me with all the education and experience and i could not come up with a simple explanation of auction market theory. I will go through this kind of dialogue with myself from time to time.

3) I got the concept but could not implement it. I mean how does one find edges of a BELL CURVE? What is high and what is low of a bell curve? I started using daily ATR. However daily ATR is not a fixed number. For example, if CL had moved up from 91 to 92.60 ( 160 ticks) and CL is in a macro bearish trend, i will short 92.50 with a stop loss at 92.71. I will use most commonly used tools to make sure up move is over. It felt like the entire market was after my stop loss. I will get stopped out and CL will pullback 100+ ticks in front of my eyes while i was blaming myself that 92.50 area was not the IDEAL LOCATION for short. I should have been patient and shorted at 92.81 with a stop loss at 93.01. I will go through all kinds of plans to make sure next time i do not make this mistake.

NOTE: I am using a simplified example to make a point.

Let's use the same example of CL up move from 91 to 92.60 in a macro bearish trend. I will wait for CL to come to 92.90 area to short but the bastard jumping rabbit will reverse from 92.70 this time. My indicators are hinting that reversal is on hand but (indicators were also hinting last time when i shorted at 92.50) i do not take the trade. I am being disciplined. Well, i sure was disciplned but ended up with mikeymouse trades with nothing to show for.

4) I forgot about this video. Sure, the author says that one can risk 20 cents to make 100 cents but what the hell he knows, he is just a kid- my inner voice will reason. I kept wandering in TRADING JUNGLE looking at order flow, special supply and demand zones etc. but no go.

5) To cut the long story short i finally realized that i have most of trading concepts correct but i keep getting hosed with this idea of risk 1 to make 2 or 3 or 5 times. Why not? Everyone says the same thing plus it's backed by math ( i was never found of math by the way and it's too late now). I will experiment with stop loss away from all the noise but will chicken out after i calculate that on 2 cars in CL my stop loss will be $3,000. Who in his right mind will use $3,000 stop loss when he has not even made $3,000?

We all have heard that each trader have to find his own path. I finally let the LED OUT and decided on following. Some of these are against conventional trading folk lore but i do not care, they work for me.

1) Not every trade will turn out to be where one risk 1 and make 3, or 5 etc. Actually, there are lot of set ups where i risk 3 and make 1 all the time. Funny thing it's only risk when trade is put on and one is afraid of getting stopped out. I have not been hit by a disaster stop loss. Since, i have never been hit by a disaster stop loss- this strategy is least risky for me.

2) One can not trade every set up where one is risking 3 to make 1 regardless of whether one stop loss is hit or not. That's where concept of PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT comes in. I may be risking 3 to make 1 in CL but at the same time i have trades in TF, CC, NG, GC etc. I look at portfolio as a whole and manage risk of the portfolio at least on 1:1 ratio.
3) I add to my positions even if i have intra day draw down on the trade. For example, i was short CL 94.10, 94.50 yesterday and held my shorts. I added to short 94.74 during Globex session. I increase size if i have conviction. Thus , short at 94.74 had triple the size of position size vs short at 94.10. I covered some 94.30 and suddenly based upon my P&L i am looking like a genius. I am also aware of CL jumping back up and that's why i covered some. I like high flying kites.
4) I realized that one trade or a series of trade doe not make a career.
5) I believe in Mark Fisher concept of NEXT. Take a trade. If it works, it's good. If it does not work, move on to the NEXT. There are dozens of trades across different instruements every day. Do not get stuck with just one trade/idea etc.
6) Stay away from SCALPING at all cost. You will never ever develop habit to look at Forest. In fact you will not even look at trees. You will be just stuck in your own imagination of so called support and resistance which has nothing to do with the market.
7) Once i adjusted stop loss based upon market structure vs use tight stop loss , keep getting hit and keep coming back for more till one works, everything else in the video looks like MAGIC.
8) After all the home work is done, i need to have a trade on to get REALLY focused. Otherwise, it's just waste of time. I used to not have any trade on but will say CL will do this and that to myself and get amazed as to how i am picking spots. The moment i will put on a trade something will not go as i thought it wil. For example, i still have shorts on in CL and i can feel the flow. If i did not had trade on and i am saying to myself, 94.90 is the high and CL may pullback to 93.70- it has NO VALUE for me. It actually confuses the heck out of me. One needs to be in the game to play the game. That's why i shorted 94.10 to have skin in the game with fully being aware of probability of CL going higher etc.





My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; September 30th, 2014 at 09:54 AM.
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  #580 (permalink)
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Trading


staying the course and trading probabilities.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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