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COMMON SENSE
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COMMON SENSE

  #461 (permalink)
Elite Member
Des Moines, Iowa
 
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mfbreakout View Post
yesterday longs and longs. Today, shorts and shorts. Why? what kind of pre market preparation, analysis you did?
NONE.

Nothing matters till everyone is on the playing field.

ive been following the internals for awhile and even more so a few years ago, but they seem to be basically just showing what price is already doing. making it almost redundancy. maybe im just looking at them wrong.

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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  #462 (permalink)
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madLyfe View Post
ive been following the internals for awhile and even more so a few years ago, but they seem to be basically just showing what price is already doing. making it almost redundancy. maybe im just looking at them wrong.

Price has no value. It's going up or down etc. When out of 1000 of stocks 800 are down and rest up plus market internals- all i am interested is in shorts.

Traders who are not in shorts are waiting to go long. They are counting if price goes above this high and that then it's a reversal etc. I have no interest in longs today till everything is green. This does not mean NQ can not bounce from 4078 to 4090 or whatever- if market internals are still -ve or they turned +ve but turned -ve, i will reshort.

Internals are not meant to give a trader tick for tick road map. In the end a trader has to execute. My premise is that after internals turned -ve, there is no need to pick exact spot. Just short it. Problem is traders want neat tight stop loss too.
There is no such thing in trading. If all i am worried about yesterday as to where would be stop loss when i went long at 4083.50 yesterday, then trading is not for me.

NQ- 4110 to 4078, that's 32 points. A trader should know ATR and realize rubber band too stretched and first cover shorts and then see if long snap back makes sense. Snap back will be muted . It will not be 32 points if internals are -ve.
NQ moved from 4078 to 4090, a 12 point move. If i am long, i will book it. Internals get stretched too. Snap back trades are independent of internals.

Most important: Internals help to decide what kind of size to put on. One can see down move was picking up speed after 11 am eastern time. Experinced traders were adding size to their position all day long. They are not interested in making 32 points on NQ today. They are interested in putting on maxium size and get out. Whetehr it turns out to be 10 points or 20 points on entire position, it does not matter. They want to trade with size on days like today without worrying about if short should be at 4100 or 4095 etc. What do we do? Oh i missed the trade. NQ is already down 10 points. I missed the train. Wrong approach.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; September 19th, 2014 at 02:51 PM.
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  #463 (permalink)
Elite Member
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mfbreakout View Post
Price has no value. It's going up or down etc. When out of 1000 of stocks 800 are down and rest up plus market internals- all i am interested is in shorts.

Traders who are not in shorts are waiting to go long. They are counting if price goes above this high and that then it's a reversal etc. I have no interest in longs today till everything is green. This does not mean NQ can not bounce from 4078 to 4090 or whatever- if market internals are still -ve or they turned +ve but turned -ve, i will reshort.

Internals are not meant to give a trader tick for tick road map. In the end a trader has to execute. My premise is that after internals turned -ve, there is no need to pick exact spot. Just short it. Problem is traders want neat tight stop loss too.
There is no such thing in trading. If all i am worried about yesterday as to where would be stop loss when i went long at 4083.50 yesterday, then trading is not for me.

NQ- 4110 to 4078, that's 32 points. A trader should know ATR and realize rubber band too stretched and first cover shorts and then see if long snap back makes sense. Snap back will be muted . It will not be 32 points if internals are -ve.
NQ moved from 4078 to 4090, a 12 point move. If i am long, i will book it. Internals get stretched too. Snap back trades are independent of internals.

ya i agree with you on the internals being short and the snapbacks being muted. im not following the NQ atm but TF seemed choppy to long till 9:20ish CST via the internals. i got short earlier around 8:50-8:55 CST. i was more looking at how we were playing around yesterdays HOD and how the 5/45min ranges played out compared to the ON range. if anything, the internals were giving me pause at that time until shortly after they fell out of bed. they could have also completely recovered right after the break out of the 5/45 and ON ranges. we just dont know i guess.

the internals showing me that 800 are down and 200 are up is nice but isnt that directly reflected in price anyways? im not trying to tear internals apart or anything, just trying to learn what i might not be seeing. are there times when internals are negative for the day across the board and price isnt following?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
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  #464 (permalink)
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madLyfe View Post
ya i agree with you on the internals being short and the snapbacks being muted. im not following the NQ atm but TF seemed choppy to long till 9:20ish CST via the internals. i got short earlier around 8:50-8:55 CST. i was more looking at how we were playing around yesterdays HOD and how the 5/45min ranges played out compared to the ON range. if anything, the internals were giving me pause at that time until shortly after they fell out of bed. they could have also completely recovered right after the break out of the 5/45 and ON ranges. we just dont know i guess.

the internals showing me that 800 are down and 200 are up is nice but isnt that directly reflected in price anyways? im not trying to tear internals apart or anything, just trying to learn what i might not be seeing. are there times when internals are negative for the day across the board and price isnt following?

Taking a short right at NY open at 9.30 am eastern time was not the right thing to do. At that point nothing was clear. Markets internals were in fact +ve and that's why i reduced position size. This continued till 11 am when internals turned -ve and
the game was on. I added to short and waited for ATR to get hit and then some.

Once after a prolonged battle, one side gives up, marrket just does not turn around on a dime. Prices go up and down but that has nothing to do wit trend underway. Everytime price bounced experienced traders added to their short.

NQ down .40% on the day. TF down 1.40%. More reward=More Risk= choppiness. If one can handle choppines then TF is the one to trade. After CL it gives almost same bang for a buck. Iam trading GC, PL, PA, CL, NG- there is enough choppiness within them. That's why i am trading NQ to balance the day out.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; September 19th, 2014 at 03:16 PM.
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  #465 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Taking a short right at NY open at 9.30 am was not the right thing to do. At that point nothing was clear. Markets internals were in fact +ve and that's why i reduced position size. This continued till 11 am when internals turned -ve and
the game was on. I added to short and waited for ATR to get hit and then some.

Once after a prolonged battle, one side gives up, marjket just does not turn around on a dime. Prices go up and down but that has nothing to do wit trend underway. Everytime price bounced experienced traders added to their short.

NQ down .40% on the day. TF down 1.40%. More reward=More Risk= choppiness. If one can handle choppines then TF is the one to trade. After CL it gives almost same bang for a buck.

i took the TF short at like 8:55 CST so basically a half hour after the open. the ADR was around 14 pts which also was in the same location of yesterdays LOD. i decided aiming for around 12pts of the ADR. obv i now know that i should have held on for much longer.

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dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
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  #466 (permalink)
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madLyfe View Post
i took the TF short at like 8:55 CST so basically a half hour after the open. the ADR was around 14 pts which also was in the same location of yesterdays LOD. i decided aiming for around 12pts of the ADR. obv i now know that i should have held on for much longer.

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Thats a great trade. Instead of focusing on total points see if you can add to a position. I will take 8 points on 20 cars vs 12 points on 2 cars. Either way it's a great trade.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #467 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Thats a great trade. Instead of focusing on total points see if you can add to a position. I will take 8 points on 20 cars vs 12 points on 2 cars. Either way it's a great trade.

i do need to work on adding to trades. chances of me adding would have been greater if there was some type of a pullback before my set tgt was hit. adding mid stream is still a wip for me. maybe this is where the internals can add some confidence.

one thing that was still on my mind was yesterdays short trade corresponded with todays tgt which happened to be towards yesterdays LOD.

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you can see where the buying kept coming in. i managed to get out in that area after a long hold time right before it shot back to the other side of the range. i knew that getting out there was a good idea because of previous buying during the day and that it was getting towards the end of the day. some of it was luck though too. i mean, it could have fell another 10pts going into the close.

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
 
  #468 (permalink)
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Trading

" Curiosity did NOT kill the cat; Conventionality did". Lisa Laird Dirosso.

A small sample of trading ranges for CL on daily, weekly and monthly basis. Except during periods of extreme Volatility due to macro events ( like first Gulf war etc..) these ranges are a good gauage on long term basis also.

Pick direction right and then trade. I am not interested in as to what price is doing on 5 minutes etc time frame. Equation is pretty SIMPLE

Small time frame= Small targets= Tight stop loss= Randomness = Fighting against Algos.

Getting fixated on ticks and declaring ones trade a loosing trade ( provided one is on the right side, a.k.a trading CL mostly from short side over last 5 weeks) if one is down 30 ticks because trader has no ability to stay put will not be my recommendation. I understand being down 30 ticks is $600 on 2 cars but market does not care. That's why if a trader can trade 10 cars, he should start with 2 cars, add, subtract and a host of other tactics. One of the biggest issue i see after a trader has a good grasp on his trading method is trading with small account size full time. We keep blaming ourselve for not being disciplined, not having patience, not having enough knowledge and on and on. Learning never stops but there is a limit to how much knowledge one needs to trade successfully. There is not much difference knowledge wise between a trader who has been trading successfully for 5 years vs the one who has been trading for 2 years.

In summary problem may not be lack of knowledge, lack of discipline, lack of method etc. but lack of a properly funded account. I will not get into as to how much one needs to trade full time and make a living. If a trader can not figure out that himself- game is over even before it began. I am against forecasting about levels , thinking that TF will do this tomorrow etc. but we can forecast with almost 100% accuracy as to what ill happen to a trader if he has following 2 things ( provided a trader has basic method under control) ;

1) Undercapitalized.

2) Using leverage.

We never know when a trader will run out of his options. All we know it's a matter of time. Just look at perfectly good traders failing at TST combine, passing TST combine after all kinds of hurdles, getting funded and then back to ZERO with one or two mistakes. All a trader is left to wonder about as to why he made one mistake. The entire trading life becomes about ONE MISTAKE. This is not what trading is about. If this is what trading was about 1,000's of very successfull traders will fail every day including me.

But where to get the MONEY from? I never said i have all the answers. All i know, if i want to start a business, let's say, a gas station and industry average in my area is that one should have $150K to put up the gas station and one year of living expenses in cash, i will not turn around and open up gas station with 50K. It does not matter what kind of skill sets i have to run a business like this, it will not work. One may say, i was told that one can make a decent living trading futures full time with a small trading account? Well, that may be true or may be not. I do not go by what someone else is saying about this paricular issue. I go by my own research and results.

NOTE: Just in case one is curious, 25K in cash for 1 car of futures trading is my refrence point. Most importantly, i will not bet under any cirumstances of trading full time to make a living if all i can trade is 1-2 contracts. It's a good starting point to learn ones trading method but it's not enough to handle VOLATILITY of futures traing as a day trader. It goes without saying that having $1 million trading account will not make an unsuccessful trader into a successfull one. I know of several traders who make nice coins trading futures with small account but they make their living not from trading but from their jobs/business. They are waiting for a tipping point where they can switch to trading full time.
Tipping point? Yes, they are waiting for a year when they can make more from trading vs from their jobs/business. It has not happened yet. A very good trader has been at this for 7 years and i doubt the tipping point will ever come unless he increase his trading account size. More importantly he is happy making extra income from trading.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; September 20th, 2014 at 02:54 PM.
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  #469 (permalink)
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Trading

It mat appear that all i try to do is discourage traders from day trading. I am not a vendor, coach, educator or a broker and have no problem in sharing important issues related to day trading.

" WHEN YOU HAVE TWO ALTERNATIVES, THE FIRST THING YOU HAVE TO LOOK FOR THE THIRD THAT YOU DIDN'T THINK ABOUT. THAT DOESN'T EXIST". Shimon Peres.


From Brett Steenbarger

" Research from Barber and Odean finds that men trade 45% more frequently compared to women and pay for their overtrading by achieving lower risk-adjusted returns. A common interpretation of this finding is that men are more risk-taking than women and more aggressive in their trading, perhaps due to the impact of testosterone.

Consider a different interpretation, however. Research from Anderson and Stranahan found that overtrading is most common among elderly traders, minority traders, and traders with less wealth. What's the common thread here? Perhaps traders overtrade because they feel a greater need to make a living from their trading. Elderly, minority, and poorer traders may not possess other sources of income and might pressure themselves to support themselves and families through trading. Men are traditionally viewed as breadwinners for families and may also feel a heightened need to make trading succeed financially.

It is ironic that those who feel the most pressure to make trading succeed are the most vulnerable to poor trading practices. It is much easier to sit out quiet or noisy markets when you don't have to rely on trading as a primary source of income. It is also easier to practice prudent risk management when you don't need to double your money or more from a small account.

We know from research that the great majority of traders are not able to sustain a living from trading. Perhaps their overtrading is not so much the result of a lack of discipline as a sign of desperation. Who addresses the needs of traders who can't trade for a living and need to find constructive alternatives? It's not an area that brokerage firms, education vendors, or coaches have much interest in highlighting. In my next post, I'll take a look at life after trading and what makes it successful."



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; September 20th, 2014 at 03:06 PM.
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  #470 (permalink)
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Anyone who is long in TF, CL, NG, NKD , PL, PA , ZS or tried long has a message from Clint

" Clint Eastwood - You're going to look awfully silly..."




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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