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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #421 (permalink)
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Could not help my self from shorting CL into the close but no pullback as expected. Holding shorts into Globex. Reversion to the mean set up. When, where and how it plays out remains to be seen.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #422 (permalink)
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Could not help my self from shorting CL into the close but no pullback as expected. Holding shorts into Globex. Reversion to the mean set up. When, where and how it plays out remains to be seen.


Clsoing most of shorts. Why? The way CL hung in there at highs all day and into the close is not a good sign for shorts. There are no longs for me at fresh new highs but that does not mean CL can not go higher.
Tomorrow is DOE report day and that should give us some good clues for rest of the week.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #423 (permalink)
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Q) What were my reasons for being bullish this morning and going long at NY open?

A) Sunday night industrail production numbers out of China were very week. Something like worse in 5 years. This should have caused CL on her continued downward path. During Globex session crude was weak but never looked back after NY open. This is generally known as " Bad news good price action". When something like this happens one has to pay attention.

B) CL tested 14 month low balance area of 90.40 twice and got rejected. As a price action trader this is important piece of information. One has to be flexible and pay attention to what market is trying to tell us.

In summary i am no longer UBER BEARISH in CL. This does not mean i am going long at fresh new highs. Price has no value. Just as i was shorting 93 , 92.50 all the way into 90.98 into weakness, i will buy into strength. Trading is not about saying that on Monday CL was at 90.63, why would i buy 93 at NY open Tuesday morning?



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"Calpers Is Done With Hedge Funds; Paid $135 Million in Fees Last Year for 7.1% Return"

As a 25 yr. client of Vanguard I could have saved Calpers a lot of money and frustration. It is amazing how much money is paid to fund manages that generate poor returns.

I think managing money and trading are similar. 95% of the people are not very good at it. However, a fund mngr is well compensated despite their poor results.

Costs matter...especially over the long term. Jack Bogle has more 'Common Sense' than pretty much anyone in the business. Low cost Indexing has been very good to me.

The Market is Smarter than You Are
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  #425 (permalink)
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tflanner View Post
As a 25 yr. client of Vanguard I could have saved Calpers a lot of money and frustration. It is amazing how much money is paid to fund manages that generate poor returns.

I think managing money and trading are similar. 95% of the people are not very good at it. However, a fund mngr is well compensated despite their poor results.

Costs matter...especially over the long term. Jack Bogle has more 'Common Sense' than pretty much anyone in the business. Low cost Indexing has been very good to me.

I used to be a broker at Merrill Lynch. I quit after i realized the wisdom of John Bogle approach. I must have put 70 of my friends investments directly into Vanguard funds since i left Mother Merrill. Everyone likes me now (lol).

NOTE: I am not suggesting that stocks brokers do not add any value to their clients. Industry has changed a lot and has become more customer focused vs when i was a broker.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #426 (permalink)
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Bad news good price action, term structure etc.

Gartman: Quietly bullish on crude oil


Note: If you hate Dennis Gartman or CNBC, this is not a place to discuss it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #427 (permalink)
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General expectation after 273 ticks move of yesterday for CL , CL should trade within usual ATR till 10.30 am DOE report. Can be 70 ticks range, 100 ticks range etc.

Short 94.87, Cover 94.42 area. No longs for me till i see FLUSH DOWN. I like to short against massive buy bars when rubber band is stretched and go long against massive sell bars. This is ONLY for rotational days. Basically, i am looking for exhausation bars.

There were no exhausation bars sround 94.90 this morning, therfore small size. I was hoping for CL to rip up to 96 area but no go. This is called getting short into the EXCITEMENT.

Massive Excitement= Massive Shorts

No Excitment= Small size. Price action is random and anything could happen during dull price action. One can say short 94.90 under double top kind of set up. I ONLY like double tops, bottoms when there is EXCITEMENT/ACTIVITY.
In a dull price action enviornment, lets say short 94.90, with cute stop loss at 95.21. Looks good till one gets stopped out and CL reverses from 93.27 after stopping you out. This calls for deep analysis the extent of which ends with something like " They knew where my stop los". This is not trading. It's called getting hosed because you asked for it without even realizing it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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For CAFUTURE and all the soccer fans.




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This one is the best one, especially for when you know its the final of the world cup !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpW74gnIm0Y

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While indices are STUCK in the mud till Yellen clears some air. Something has been up and up. Try to find instruements which are not impacted with Yellen upcoming SONG and DANCE.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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