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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #301 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Shorts got CRUMBS all day- if LUCKY.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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1) CL short.

2) NG short, cover and long.

3) Nothing in TF .



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I dream about DOE report entire week. Favourite day to trade CL.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 Robroyrogers 
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Hi MF,
question for you.... on DOE day what do you use for confirmed A down. 22 1/2 minutes like any other day or 1:15 minutes because of the longer OR? I have mixed answers to this ?? from my fellow traders.

Thanks

RRR

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  #305 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Robroyrogers View Post
Hi MF,
question for you.... on DOE day what do you use for confirmed A down. 22 1/2 minutes like any other day or 1:15 minutes because of the longer OR? I have mixed answers to this ?? from my fellow traders.

Thanks

RRR

Hi RRR,

Good to see you around.

There is no time for confirmation on A down due to very wide OR. I am either shorting it at ORH as failed A up or long off ORL as failed A down. Today bet was to short off ORH - which is 94.24 area.

That's the reason i covered some shorts around days ORL of 93.75 and held the rest as PARTY got busy and getting busier by the minute.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Breakouts and market makers. NG and most of instruements can do Mikey Mouse stuff for hours and then BOOM. Requires patience and conviction at a level- which is very hard to master.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 jthom 
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Took this trade after report. Held out for 40 ticks. 93.50 seemed to stall.

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 mfbreakout 
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Reversion to the mean trade.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 jthom 
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I am generally feeling the BULLS are slighting coming back into this. OR had strong buying. Sellers had to be tested.
That being so, I took this Failed A UP. I felt I got in a bit late as there was little selling conviction.
Trade had adrenaline pumping! Tape was screaming BUYERS. Aimed for Y-close / bottom of OR.
Breakout Bar was fast, making most of the move. I anticipated typical fast reversal behavior. Made 58 ticks.


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  #310 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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I have been bearish in CL for 3 weeks now and for me the bar to get Bullish in CL is very high. Basically failed A ups and A downs are doing MAGIC as usual.

#1) Short 93.89 during euro session. Covered 93.53. small position.

#2) Short 93.90 area before NY open, add to short 94.16 , 94.42 etc. Cover 93.85 at ORL.

#3) After move off ORL settled down around 94.70, short 94.60 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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It's always a good idea to wait for OR to set in before taking a trade. For example, this morning before NY open, i shorted 93.90, added to short 94.16 , 94.40 etc - all this while OR was getting formed.

I am testing some new set ups, so it was O.K plus i was trading way under my trading size.

Had i waited for OR to be formed, i wiould not have to endure trade going against me around 50 ticks. I mostly do wait for OR to get formed before trading but sometimes like all traders, i get too excited to put on a trade.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Low Volatility- How to trade it?

ONLY way i know is to trade way below your trading size, be prepared for price to go beyond whatever support/resistance one comes up with within a reason and then HOLD. Most importantly do not Mikey Mouse a trade as algos will eat your lunch all day long.

Mikey Mouse trade: One of the signs that a trader is trading against algos etc is a post like " All the indicators lined up , grabbed 21 ticks in 3 minute with no heat".



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Several traders have asked me about my recent change in trading style in terms of stop loss, targets , hold time etc.
Change may appear to be recent on surface but it's been slowly underway since 2013. I have started executing it more and more as i see improvement in my results.

Following is an example of a typical week from 2012.

Monday: # of contracts traded 24. gains= $300. Intraday drawdown=0, number of trades=10
Tuesday : # of contracts traded 30. gains= $600. Intraday drawdown= $800, number of trades= 12
Wednesday: # of contracts traded 24: gains= $1200. Intraday draw down= $400, number of trades= 10
Thursday: # of contracts traded 30: Gains= ( 500), Intraday draw down= (1200), number of trades =12
friday: # of contracts traded 16: Gains= $200, Intraday down =0, number of trades= 8

Gross Gains for the week= $1800

Total contracts traded= 124. Lot of traders including me ( used to) will not consider 124 contracts ( round trip) a high number. It is not. However, it is very high if all one can do is clear $1800/week on so many contracts. $1800 all by itself looks quite good but in my estimation - one is one trade away from giving it all up . I used to try to focus on loss by doining typical things which most of us do till it dawned on me to FOCUS on gains instead of loss. Basically, per my analysis, all of my trades were Mikey Mouse trades. I was 100% focused on not loosing big ( whatever that means) and finishing the week +ve.

I keep track of some other stats. like number of scratches , number of loosing trades etc. However, the most important
stats. for me is the numbers of contracts traded. The difference between 2012,2013 and now is that if i am trading 24 contracts ( round trip) for the day, i want $1400 to $2500/day Vs for the week. Even this number is low.

When i look at stats of 2012, one thing is very CLEAR- it's not a very efficent trading style based off how i define risk: reward and host of other things.
In summary, biggest change is less number of trades/day, wider stop loss, long hold time , avoiding Mikey Mouse trades, avoiding trades when price is moving up or down too fast ( even though these provide the greatest amount of pleasure and i still can not completely avoid them), more relaxed, trading multiple instruements, trying to build a position and being VERY, VERY aware of as to what's underway when price is moving up or down. I used to think everytime CL moved 60 ticks to the upside, there were buyers. It's very important to differentiate between REAL buying or practice of luring traders in to facilitate shorts being put on. We see it all the time, CL running 60 ticks to the upside and then slowly down 100 ticks with usual SONG and DANCE in between.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 justtrader 
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Jthon, that was a very nice trade. It takes guts to trade against the trend. Congratulations and share some more.

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 mfbreakout 
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Jthon, that was a very nice trade. It takes guts to trade against the trend. Congratulations and share some more.

Well you been a memebr of futures.io (formerly BMT) since 2011. Do not be shy and share here and there.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 robert880 
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L l.q

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 mfbreakout 
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Still nice +ve day but did not turned out to be what internals etc were pointing to.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 jthom 
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Jthon, that was a very nice trade. It takes guts to trade against the trend. Congratulations and share some more.

Hey justtrader,

From the commodities open till 9:15 EST I was reluctant to buy ahead. OR was massive and made me slightly anxious.
I felt that buyers would be a force today and if I sold, it would not be for too much. I essentially waited for 5 min uptrend to fail while more importantly identifying the A UP FAILURE. That was my only grounds to short. It was slightly a heart attack trade (especially watching the tape.) Knowing CL's behavior, the massive fast bear breakout made me think fast to get out. I knew it would reverse quickly based on buying force represented earlier.
In retrospect I was lucky.
I am essentially still new to ACD. This method highly fascinates me. Being a breakout adrenaline / heart failure trader for 7 years and being terrible at it, this is a GREAT alternative.

My problem at the moment is placing effective stop management. Recognizing at what point price will reach, to realize its the wrong direction. Or places where algos will see your stop. Hit it. Then reverse.
I also have problems dealing with losses as well. Call it bad psychology. Especially taking a loss first.

I will post losses as well.

Thanks

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  #319 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Hi Jthom,

I noticed following in your post

1) OR was massive.

2) slightly heart attack trade.

3) massive fast bear breakout.

4) adernaline/heart failure.

5) Buyers would be a force today.

I picked these from your post because i used to have exactly the same thoughts/ gut feeling etc. Atleast in my case it meant i was just mesmermized by something which was just not there, i am not fully in control of my emotions and thus not in a position to execute trades properly and most importantly without FEAR.

Here is one who did it without FEAR.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 alejo 
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mfbreakout View Post
Hi Jthom,

I noticed following in your post

1) OR was massive.

2) slightly heart attack trade.

3) massive fast bear breakout.

4) adernaline/heart failure.

5) Buyers would be a force today.

I picked these from your post because i used to have exactly the same thoughts/ gut feeling etc. Atleast in my case it meant i was just mesmermized by something which was just not there, i am not fully in control of my emotions and thus not in a position to execute trades properly and most importantly without FEAR.

Here is one who did it without FEAR.


hi, why do you not have fear?
thanks
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #321 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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GM Alejo,

Why I do not have FEAR while trading? or put in another way as someone asked me How do you get confidence?
For me it always has been fear of loss. Once i identified the source of the problem, next it was a long and very, very slow process of taking care of it.

Loss can be , #1) Loss of Capital #2) Loss of control #3) Loss of opportunity #4) Loss of self confidence etc.
If i have to do it all over again, i will start with following RIGHT AWAY

#1) Trade with a position size which can handle a diaster stop loss of 150 ticks beyond ATR ( Average true Range). For example, if CL ATR is 160 ticks then my disaster stop loss would be 150 ticks beyond ATR. It took me a long time to understand proper use of stop loss per my trading style.

#2) LIVE trades ONLY when i have properly funded account. Before that it's just a hobby and should be treated as such.

I still get fearful and source of it has not changed since day one. Leverage or Over Leverage. Almost everyone says that he/she understands leverage but when you look at their account size and how they are putting on size- it's very clear either they have no clue or they know but choose to ignore it for different reasons.

Lastly succees breeds success. I do not look at one trade or a series of trades to see how i am doing. I look at 100's of trades sample to make a decision if something is working or not.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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What does this 2 hour chart shows?



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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TF and various Russell related ETF's . All in sync, longs and longs. That's all one needs vs all kind of TOYS out there. No forecasting allowed or needed as to what TF will do this day or that day.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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NG setting up nicely for longs.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 jthom 
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I know as a trader you need to keep your emotions under control. Based on years of bad habits today's session tested that theory.





- Opened charts to see Gap Up. (immediately thought a possible opportunity to test GAP - even though it was 100 ticks away)
- OR had strong buying at commodity open - alas yesterday. (immediately thought possible opportunity
for FAILED A UP)
- Price stalled above OR and looked for selling opportunity based on Selling strength. Large Bear Bar made me
anticipate fast selling strength and immediately got short aiming for either GAP or bottom of OR.
- In hindsight I should of waited to see buying response based on strong buying initially. (ie : strength of retrace)

1.) Thought this was a buying breakout. Planned to get out if price significantly held above 94.50. At this stage I was 17 ticks down. Adrenaline and Fear was the general experience. Selling pressure began. Anticipating price to reach low of OR or maybe GAP.

2.) Buying pressure again. Sellers stepped in. How low will it go?

3.) 5 min doji closes. Failed attempt by sellers to take it down. Pulled out at + 10 ticks.

Having problems trying to think logically like this! Its easy to look back on a chart in past tense after the right has already formed. In reality I was finding it hard to keep emotions at ease.
Maybe time was the problem. As Mark Fisher states, the time is an important factor in a trade. Maybe I was in the trade too long.

Food for Thought. Have a good long weekend guys.

James

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 mfbreakout 
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I follow your journal and i do not understand ACD- a remark i heard from someone i was talking on friday. Over last 4 years i have heard such remarks several times and wil continue to hear in future.

It's very similar to a Cardiologist telling a Neurologist that he does not understand his field. Well, he is not supposed to. A cardiolgist will have general idea as to what Neurologist is talking about but he will never ever try to treat a patient based off his knowledge and expertise of Neurology field. M.D's understand each other lingo because they all have same foundation of medical field and training. Later on each one picks his/her specialized field.

Trading is the same way. We all can communicate with each other based off our common knowledge of patterns, candles etc. But when it comes to execution and actually putting on a trade- we all rely one our speciality. I think lot of traders get confused when they do not understand another method. I used to. I never understood Fibs. Gann, intra day channels etc and i will worry as if i am missing something which is key to trading success. Not anymore. That's why i stopped reading about different trading methods/approaches long time ago. Once i decided that i wanted to be , for example, a cardiologist, that's all i focused on. I have no interest as to what a neurologist is doing.

Bottom line pick up your speciality within trading universe and ONLY focus on that method/approach.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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For trdaers with basic knowledge of ACD following 2 charts should be very clear. If one has read mark Fisher book and even after sometime they do not make sense, then this speciality of trading is not for you. Find a one which suits you.

News is always late or it is late by the time it gets to most of us. But ACD layers were all lined up for palladium move. Ukraine news has been out for weeks and palladium has been going higher for months. News may had to do something for palladium move on Friday. However, ACD traders would have traded per plan whether there was news or no news.

" Palladium Rises to 13-Year High on Russia Supply Concerns
By Debarati Roy Aug 29, 2014 3:02 PM ET "



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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It should be pretty obvious that generally it's not a good idea to cherry pick differnt ideas for each method to get so called best set ups etc. Apparetnly, it's not obvious to quite a few traders.

Since most of us can relate to field of an M.D, i use field of medicine as an example all the time. If i can make a broad statement, i will say trading different methods is like a cardiologist acting as a cardiologist one day and a neurologist the next day or within the same day (lol). It just does not work.

Mucking around different approaches within a same method is a not a good idea either. I see traders trading 5 minutes OR but then they see me trading 45 minutes OR, so they will slap on a 45 minutes OR on top of a 5 minute. It may come across as not a big deal but it is. 5 minutes OR and 45 minutes OR are totally different approaches and execution strategy. Do not try to be cute thinking that mixing different methods will increase your edge. It actually has an opposite effect.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I have tried but it's not possible to be completely NUMB when one is in front of screen. I shorted CL and GC during Euro session today and then went back to sleep.

I have certain targets for these trades but i was deep sleep after putting on the trade and had no idea or so called control as to what CL and GC are doing. I was not worried about questions like - look at CL i am short from 95.84, it went in my favor 16 ticks and now is back uo to 95.80? Why it's taking so long to go down? maybe i should book some profits and on and on.

The moment i got in front of my computer this morning- all the above questioned started to run through my mind. Nothing wrong with booking some after 70 ticks of gains but " We are our own worst enemy most of the time". We tend to make decisions based off what happened to us on previous trading day, week etc.

On Friday, CL will not break below 94.20 and this morning- NO BODY HOME. On last Friday, i was short CL at 94.44 and stayed short all day and added to short all the way to 95. I ONLY needed CL to pullback to 94.50 to make the trade a SCRATCH but the bugger just hung around 95.80 area and i covered the short.

Tuesday is a new day and Friday got taken care off and then some. One trade or a series of trades have no meaning as long as each day is started as a FRESH new day.

NOTE: There are many reasons one can come up as to why CL just consolidated around 94.20 all day on Friday and then in the last hour went to 95 area. Theories do not matter. Actions and set ups do. Per my set up- there was no long around 94.40 on Friday, however, i lightened up the position after 3 hours of consolidation per my rules.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 jthom 
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After seeing OR form after GAP down, I felt that if I took longs they wouldn't be for much. Market was Short to begin with.
Would an A Down hold after this massive move down? Felt cautious and anticipated this would possibly range.
Got 10 ticks off this A Down Failure.
In hindsight this could be seen as A down as well? Price consistently stayed below ORL.

Thanks

James

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 mfbreakout 
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Real Buyers vs illusion ? Always try to ask this very important question. Shorts and shorts, so far. No longs.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Always be aware of London close. It's time for them to hit pubs.





My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I am reading traders posting on the net their "LINE IN THE SAND" trades, for example,

1) Long 95.10, stop loss 94.82.

2) Long 94.40, stop loss 93.89.


Reason for these line in the sands trades- SUPPORT.

All i can say- if one does not pick direction right, all one will end up doing is drawing lines in the sand.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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5 decisions today.

1) Short CL.
2) short NG.
3) Short GC
4) Short TF 1179
5) Long TF 1172.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 jthom 
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Today, my execution was a little messed up. Was waiting for oil report but apparently that is tomorrow.
I was trying to think SHORTS, however market gapped up and proceeded to move north.
The complete opposite of yesterday.
First couple of trades were messy. Went Long, then went Short. Both stopped out.
I then doubled up (not good) and went Long anticipating an A UP. Price stalled fast and took quick profits.
Went Short thereafter anticipating A UP Failure. Entry / Execution wasn't the best. Trade moved 36 ticks and stalled again. Took profit at 20 at low of OR.

Overall 38 ticks today.
However was not impressed with entries and initial analysis. Trade management was good.

Thanks

James

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 mfbreakout 
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Long and short.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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When all the internals are lined up- it's a gift from GOD. No forecasting is needed or allowed.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Does not matter if one is trading QQQ, TF or NQ etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 Bsinks 
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mfbreakout View Post
Does not matter if one is trading QQQ, TF or NQ etc.

Guess who is buying lunch......

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 mfbreakout 
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Guess who is buying lunch......


You can do it as long as you are willing to HOLD and beware of running after a kite already up in the sky. Problem is most traders get bullish when it's already high and a PRIME candidate for a nice cut. Long in CL from 94.25 or TF short off ORH involved 2 things;

1) Long HOLD time

2) and understanding that bounces in case off TF or pullbacks in case of CL today were part of a natural ebb and flow. It's not easy but that's the way it is.

I am very confident that pretty soon you will be a trader you want to be.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I still get surprised but never shocked enough to miss a trade becuase ACD keeps a trader on the right side. Otherwise 300 ticks yesterday and 300 ticks today- gets one HEAD SPIN.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Covered some around 95.10 yesterday on short from yesterday around 95.57. Added to short this morning. Out flat 94.32 and waiting for NY open.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 jthom 
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Took this trade today. Higher time frame was screaming shorts after RTH close gap fill.
Very questionable WHY I TOOK IT. Gut feeling and the mental preparation to HOLD. Even before oil report!
Then held onto trade as it went 30 ticks against me when report came out.
Several trips were made to the bathroom.
Was trying to target 94.16.
Very Stubbon!

Made 46 ticks.

Thanks

James

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 mfbreakout 
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Q) Someone asked how can i trade without looking at DOM, Order Flow etc.

A) I trade multiple instruements, TF, NG, CL, GC, ZS etc. At one time i typically have 2-3 positions open. I do not want to look at anything which moves at high speed while trading. My head just SPINS. Best way i can explain the feeling is by following video. I like to take a position and sit back and look at nothing else related to price movement etc. I do not want to know as to what algos are doing, which is basically cleaning out traders all day long. I use market internals as a tape reading tool to trade TF, QQQ etc. They are set at 15 minutes time frame. Anything on shorter time frame does not suit my style. All i am trading is basically edges of ATR and mostly chart gives plenty of clues as to what to do.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Shorts CL and long NG, TF.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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start small on failed A up and then add as internals turn -ve.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 madLyfe 
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mfbreakout View Post
start small on failed A up and then add as internals turn -ve.

what is +/- VE? in poker +/- EV is expected value. are you using the 0 line to define if its + or -, or just the direction its going?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

\_(ツ)_/

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 mfbreakout 
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what is +/- VE? in poker +/- EV is expected value. are you using the 0 line to define if its + or -, or just the direction its going?


I am just using +ve instead of typing word positive to show if market internals are showing potential up move. -ve for negative.

As a rule of thumb i try not to short TF when internals are +ve ( positive). Today from 9.30 till 11.30 am, internals were positive, so no shorts. They slowly started turning red and picked up speed around 2 .30 pm.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 madLyfe 
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mfbreakout View Post
I am just using +ve instead of typing word positive to show if market internals are showing potential up move. -ve for negative.

As a rule of thumb i try not to short TF when internals are +ve ( positive).

cool thanks. do you put any weight into the 0 line for internals or are you just talking about the way they are moving in general?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

\_(ツ)_/

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 mfbreakout 
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cool thanks. do you put any weight into the 0 line for internals or are you just talking about the way they are moving in general?

the way they are moving in general.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 jthom 
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Hey guys.
This trade had multiple entries. Second entry was at close of RTH.
I must say, increasing position size requires good management of risk.
Trade went 10 ticks against me and I proceeded to work out a exit method.
However intuition paid off.
I was aiming for bottom of OR or below 94 (where stops were.)
Risk management made me flee after bear spike bar.
These spike bars always SCARE me. Always fearful of fast reversals.

Trade made +57 ticks

@mfbreakout - Thanks for your charts once again. Always inspirational to see them daily.

Have a great weekend guys!

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 mfbreakout 
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No Body home. Yetserday was used to get longs excited which continued this morning and then BOOM.

Next 93 area to break whetehr it's today or CL just rotate between 94 and 93 area remains to be seen. 94.90 to 93.40= 150 ticks fits within ATR.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Fellow trader from down under- Jthom,

In the spirit of helping each other, try to ignore following things. These are your true feelings. I went through them and still do. However, it's a good idea to come up with a plan to undersatnd what they mean and how it can -vely limit a traders TRUE potential.

1) Trade went 10 ticks against me.

2) Risk management made me flee after bear spike bar.
These spike bars always SCARE me. Always fearful of fast reversals.

Later on i will post my experience as to how to overcome " FEAR OF REVERSAL". The biggest fear of all- which i still have from time to time.

Good trading.

NOTE: I listen to your country mate and others from around the world to keep calm. She is mine and my wife favourite.




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 mfbreakout 
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Flush down to 92.86. Rubber band quite stretched. Reversion to the mean long. 93.21 and out 93.62.

CL back to scene of crime. Where and how far it will bounce? Will it trade in a box of 93 to 94 or test 92.50 area?

I have no idea. All i know A down is confirmed. Rubber band snap back long happened and i am shorting bounces.



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 mfbreakout 
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Flush down to 92.86. Rubber band quite stretched. Reversion to the mean long. 93.21 and out 93.62.

CL back to scene of crime. Where and how far it will bounce? Will it trade in a box of 93 to 94 or test 92.50 area?

I have no idea. All i know A down is confirmed. Rubber band snap back long happened and i am shorting bounces.


and week is finally over as far as CL is concerned. Cover 93.07. Flat.



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 alejo 
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No Body home. Yetserday was used to get longs excited which continued this morning and then BOOM.

Next 93 area to break whetehr it's today or CL just rotate between 94 and 93 area remains to be seen. 94.90 to 93.40= 150 ticks fits within ATR.

i was thinking in your stop atr+150 =300 tick, what do you think about statistical approach to trading? do you keep some rr ratio?
or as cl example you see the direction and short short and short
no rr, no taget, only seeing and executing
thank you
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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 mfbreakout 
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alejo View Post
i was thinking in your stop atr+150 =300 tick, what do you think about statistical approach to trading? do you keep some rr ratio?
or as cl example you see the direction and short short and short
no rr, no taget, only seeing and executing
thank you
alejo


Statistical approach to trading? No rr, No target, only seeing and executing? I am not sure i understand the question but i will try to answer.

The only statistic which matters to me is price behavior within OR in relation to ATR and weekly trend. For stop loss, following is the KEY,

1) For last 4 weeks CL has been in a bearish trend. This means i am more confident in shorting CL and will keep adding to my shorts regardless how much price has moved against me. Mostly when it moves against me it's around 30-50 ticks. In almost every instance i am aware of probability of price moving against me before i take the trade.
Last Friday, i shorted 94.62 area - against ORH area. I make sure everything lines up so that probability of CL moving against me is very little. 95.84 area is my resistance area. It does not matter as to why i think 95.84 is a resistance area. We all have various levels.

Important thing for me is not to get worried if CL ends up, let's say to 95.20 area, a 58 ticks move against my entry. When price moves up, i try to see if it's due to REAL buying or just illusion of buying to facilitate 2 sided trades. If buying is underway with FORCE, i just hit market order and get out. I do not just sit and see if my 150 ticks STOP LOSS gets hit.

2) If i take counter trend trades, my stop loss is tight and targets modest 40-60 ticks. Any long over last 4 weeks with the exception of couple of days in between would have been a counter trend trade. In that case tight stop loss and modest targets.


As far as R:R is concerned, i focus on .0025 daily rate of return on my total capital. My goal is to hit daily goal 3 out of 5 trading days. Further i trade way below my account size and thus i can afford to HOLD , add to a position when trading with trend etc. That's the edge for me. Edge is in picking direction of the trend correctly and then letting the trade work outside random price movement. Any tool which helps a trader- DOME, order flow etc- to reduce the probability of a trade turning against one position is OK but then do not put so much emphasis and burden on your tools by saying short 94.62 stop loss 94.81 and then constantly worrying about the trade.

If a trade works in my favour without much heat it's great but if it does not then i do not start blaming myself as to why this and why that kind of scenarios. My main responsibility as a trader is to pick direction of the trend correctly , whether it works without much heat or after giving some heat- is not a major issue.

I get asked a lot as to how to handle a trade going against one position till it eventually does? ONLY way i know is to have lot of dry powder handy- meaning trade under your limit and be willing to use that limit when situation/set up becomes more clear. Anyone who thinks that he/she knew that on last Friday CL will not go above ORH because MACD divergence or whatever else one is using and thus it's OK to use a 15 ticks stop loss has a long way to go.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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When a volatile market such as crude oil trades near or outside an extreme of a balance area, the following are the two most likely scenarios:

Trade outside the balance extreme and accelerate.
Trade near, or outside, the balance extreme and fail. The failure usually results in rotation to the opposite extreme of that balance area.

Downside Continuation

If the market gains acceptance below the 9262-balance-bracket low, the 9124-fourteen-month low would be the first target. With acceptance below the 9124-fourteen-month low, the next references on the monthly chart are 9011 and 8561.

Downside Breakout Failure

If the market trades below 9262 and fails, a rotation back up to the 9600-three-week-balance high over time is a strong possibility.


NOTE: Above analysis is a good general overview. Once daily OR is formed that's when we get into action.



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 cmmichaels 
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Statistical approach to trading? No rr, No target, only seeing and executing? I am not sure i understand the question but i will try to answer.

The only statistic which matters to me is price behavior within OR in relation to ATR and weekly trend. For stop loss, following is the KEY,

1) For last 4 weeks CL has been in a bearish trend. This means i am more confident in shorting CL and will keep adding to my shorts regardless how much price has moved against me. Mostly when it moves against me it's around 30-50 ticks. In almost every instance i am aware of probability of price moving against me before i take the trade.
Last Friday, i shorted 94.62 area - against ORH area. I make sure everything lines up so that probability of CL moving against me is very little. 95.84 area is my resistance area. It does not matter as to why i think 95.84 is a resistance area. We all have various levels.

Important thing for me is not to get worried if CL ends up, let's say to 95.20 area, a 58 ticks move against my entry. When price moves up, i try to see if it's due to REAL buying or just illusion of buying to facilitate 2 sided trades. If buying is underway with FORCE, i just hit market order and get out. I do not just sit and see if my 150 ticks STOP LOSS gets hit.

2) If i take counter trend trades, my stop loss is tight and targets modest 40-60 ticks. Any long over last 4 weeks with the exception of couple of days in between would have been a counter trend trade. In that case tight stop loss and modest targets.


As far as R:R is concerned, i focus on .0025 daily rate of return on my total capital. My goal is to hit daily goal 3 out of 5 trading days. Further i trade way below my account size and thus i can afford to HOLD , add to a position when trading with trend etc. That's the edge for me. Edge is in picking direction of the trend correctly and then letting the trade work outside random price movement. Any tool which helps a trader- DOME, order flow etc- to reduce the probability of a trade turning against one position is OK but then do not put so much emphasis and burden on your tools by saying short 94.62 stop loss 94.81 and then constantly worrying about the trade.

If a trade works in my favour without much heat it's great but if it does not then i do not start blaming myself as to why this and why that kind of scenarios. My main responsibility as a trader is to pick direction of the trend correctly , whether it works without much heat or after giving some heat- is not a major issue.

I get asked a lot as to how to handle a trade going against one position till it eventually does? ONLY way i know is to have lot of dry powder handy- meaning trade under your limit and be willing to use that limit when situation/set up becomes more clear. Anyone who thinks that he/she knew that on last Friday CL will not go above ORH because MACD divergence or whatever else one is using and thus it's OK to use a 15 ticks stop loss has a long way to go.

This is a great post, the gap between what is pushed and taught to the retail and how consistent traders operate seems to be vast

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 CACFUTURE 
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"Edge is in picking direction of the trend correctly and then letting the trade work outside random price movement"

All is said here.

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 mfbreakout 
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1) Failed A down and Failed A up in CL and TF.

2) He who says he CAN and the one who says he CAN'T are both usually right.






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 mfbreakout 
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All that glitters is not Gold.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Are you one of those who is looking at daily, weekly, monthly charts of ES, NQ etc and then saying bulls are INTACT and just holding on to your longs?

Nothing wrong with that except that YTD in Ruseell 2000 returns are 0.3%, S&P 8.4% with lot of swings in between.

I will let OR and daily internals decided if the day is bullish, bearsih or just plain old rotation.



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 mfbreakout 
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Tits on a bull?

I do not trade ES but like to look at it here and there. I do not trade 100 lot position that i need a thick instruement to get my orders absorbed.



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 mfbreakout 
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He is a good SPORT and seems like a great actor the way he prestened this hypothtical trade. In one 3 minutes video he exposed all of my weakness. I used to pick bottoms/tops all the time. I had read many books, articles, watched webinars but none made as much impact as this video did in terms of drilling the main point- there are no NO BRAINERS trades when one is fully loaded in one trade or a number of trades.




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 mfbreakout 
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It does not matter how much success you had in the past as a trader, you will get KILLED if not careful with LEVERAGE. Jon Corzine was a star bond trader at GS eventually becoming Co- Chair of GS before retring from GS.
Based off his entire life work experience he put on a trade while at MF Global. He would be a trading GOD based on this trade if he had not used excessive LEVERAGE.


Jon Corzine Would Be A Wall Street God If He Could've Held On To His Trade ( Business Insider)



" If MF Global CEO Jon Corzine could have stayed solvent going long on eurozone peripheral sovereign debt back in 2011, he would be the stuff of Wall Street legend right now.
As Deutsche Bank analysts Stuart Kirk, Rineesh Bansal, and
Gal Gunubu point out in a note, the bond market ultimately turned in Corzine's favor.

From the note:

Spanish officials must giggle at being able to borrow at 4 percent for half a century. One man surely sobbing into his beard however is ex-MF Global boss Jon Corzine ... How tantalizingly close he was to being hailed the cleverest man on the planet. Just one month later Italian yields peaked, then Portugal’s did, then Spain’s — before Mario Draghi’s speech began the mother of all bond rallies.

So Corzine was right, but his timing was wrong — and his execution was poor, to say the very least.
The former New Jersey governor and CEO of Goldman Sachs was brought down not only by his highly levered $7 billion position, but also by the scandal that followed.
After MF Global collapsed, it was investigated for illegally using customer funds to avoid what was ultimately a $1 billion margin call.

The details revealed in the investigation were brutal. According to one former employee, the final days at MF Global were a "total cluster---." Corzine and other executives were called to testify before Congress about the affair.
Last November the firm was ordered to pay $1.2 billion to wronged customers and handed an additional $100 million in fines to the CFTC.

NOTE: Who stepped up in the entire world to take off the trade from Corzine hands due to margin call? None other than George Soros and as usual made a killing on the trade. He had all the Dry powder needed to pull this trade without excessive leverage.



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 mfbreakout 
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After all said and done- we trade our CONVICTIONS. Here and there , we are wrong. But one trade or a series of a trade do not make a career provided ONE IS READY to start fresh.
Yesterday, got caught on the wrong side in CL into the close. Loss in CL turned gains in TF, GC into a scratch day. CL hit 93.20 area and pulled back some around 92.75 area and i covered it during Asian session.



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 mfbreakout 
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Tuesday Morning , found 2 high flying kites and took care of them.
Scaled out around 93.10, 92.90. No Longs. Only shorts into bounces is what i am looking at, if i trade CL at all for rest of the day. May try long if FLUSH down comes to the down side around 92.50 to 92 area.



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 mfbreakout 
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" No Longs. Only shorts into bounces is what i am looking at, if i trade CL at all for rest of the day. May try long if FLUSH down comes to the down side around 92.50 to 92 area."

Reshort.



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 mfbreakout 
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Whatever happened to all the so called buyers who took CL to 93.94? It was time to pull CL back as all the air was out.

I wish it had pulled back when i was loaded this morning but they needed some longs to come in ( illusion of buyers when CL bounced from 92.90 to 93.40) and then BOOM. Added to short 92.95.



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 mfbreakout 
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" No Longs. Only shorts into bounces is what i am looking at, if i trade CL at all for rest of the day. May try long if FLUSH down comes to the down side around 92.50 to 92 area."

Reshort.

Flush down came and rip back up. long 92.68 .Video game in full action. Looks like low of the day is in around 92.50 and we have 92.50 to 93.50 trading box in play.



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 mfbreakout 
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ES can pullback 40 points and bullish trend will remian intact. A useless piece of information which even a blind man can see. Don't buy at highs - O.K but do not short either because no one knows how high it can go- OK. How about rotation? I will short whenever internals line up.

Shorts and shorts in TF. Feels like entire market was trading with AAPL. It was quite a tortures Journey today as TF kept bouncing off ORL but then AAPL news headfake and BOOM. Market internals remained -ve for the entire day, so i was comfortable with shorts.



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 mfbreakout 
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Never thought about VIX and her relation with market this way. Make sense.

"Nomura's bearish strategist Bob Janjuah believes the stock market could continue to rally to new highs given current market conditions.
"As I have said for at least a year now, until and unless we see a weekly close (ideally consecutive weekly closes) in the VIX index below 10, then I judge risk-on has more to go," Janjuah wrote in his latest note to clients.

Janjuah is referring to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of options traders' expectations for future market volatility.

"We got close in June/early July, but we did not get there. I would expect that, if I am right about the next quarter or two, then VIX should hit this target during this timeframe."



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 mfbreakout 
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Rather than answer each question individually, please see chart. Key point is to understand randomness and trade accordingly. My recommendation will be to stay away from crude if you are a type of trader who takes each trade as a matter of life and death- like a gun fight, you aim , take a short, either you are ALIVE or DEAD. Unfortunately, that's all happens all day long all over the net.

A typical scenario " I shorted CL, had to endure 15 ticks of heat, went in my favour 20 ticks and then reversed on me. I will be more disciplined next time". " My LIS is this and that - why? because look at all the long wicks" and on and on.


NOTE: Anytime i am trading small position size, i am trading randomness of price movement. ONLY way i know as how to handle randomness is to have dry powder handy, trade small and give trade lot of room. There is no point in beating yourself up day after day trying to put randomness in a neat little TIFFANY box. To think that price could not have gotten higher when i shorted this morning around 92.92 is a FOOLS GAME , not worth playing.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Direction of an instruement is not random. In between there is lot of randomness for reasons too many to elborate and worry about.

Cover some 91.54 and staying short till REAL buying or short covering comes into play.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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What to do when everything lines up but no follow through? Cut down size and be ready when party get started or get ruined in case of reversal.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Need new effort and energy to break out of balance area. Will it happen today, next week or get defnded again and CL bounces back up? I have no idea. All we can do put the odds and watch. ORL around 91.40 did not get formed by accident.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Long hold off ORL on failed A down.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I keep geeting questions regarding pin pointing execution etc. I do not understand or believe in the concept of PIN POINT execution, 1:3 risk:reward set ups etc.
I can give standard answer with charts saying that this was a PICTURE PERFECT set up, or this is the best A+ set up etc but there are none.

I spent years running after such concepts. Finally, i settled upon position size as a tool to reflect my confidence in a set up . As i have posted in the past that out of entire trading days on a yearly basis, my experiience tells me 20% of trading days are worth putting size on. I know of more experienced traders than myself whose experience is different than mine. So take it with a GRAIN OF SALT.

Followers of my last journal are basically surprised as to how much i have changed in 2014. It's true. My biggest changes are as following;

1) Trade with trend and do not worry about price bouncing in between. If i can not handle retracements, hold time required to get paid, i cut down size.

2)I add to my position in the trend. If i am short 92.50 and price goes up to 93 etc. It does not mean trend has changed. All it means my timing was off. I will add to shorts. Use wide stop loss and keep lot of powder dry.

3) If i take counter trend trades like longs in CL over last 3 weeks, very small position size and relatively small stop loss.

4) To take a counter trend trade with size, the bar for proof of evidence is very high for me.

I understand that it took me 5 years to get to this point and it may not be helpful to other traders but that's the way it is. I do not expect other to do the same. I was told the same things early in my career by other experienced traders but i have to come to this point on my own.

and in the interest of staying with the trend short 91.87 again. I am aware of massive balance area in play, so i am not expecting CL to just sell off another 100 -200 ticks without force etc but i will take 50-70 ticks. Due to price being at low end of massive balance area, i am using relatively tight stop loss. When price just get stuck at major decision point. Two things can happen;

1) Either it get out of balance area and continues down move- which i am hoping for.

2) or it reverts back up because rubber band being so stretched or CL needs to lure more buyers in to facilitate shorts. That's the reason for relatively tight stop loss vs my standard 150 ticks stop loss.

Funny thing is i have not been stopped out in a year. Got caught couple of time when CL bounced more than i expected but i took care of CL the next day because sooner or later air comes out of counter trend moves. In summary, i have no problem being wrong due to timing when taking trades with the trend. Following example is a BIG NO, the way i trade.

" I was talking with a fellow trader today. First, he had this line in the sand support at 92.50. He went long around that area and got stopped out. As price got stuck around 92 area, he went long 92.10 and got stopped again. I asked him why he went long 92 if 92.50 was line in the sand? No good answer. He was afraid to short 92.90 becuase CL was looking bullish. Finally, he was afraid to go long 91.40 because it was looking bearish".

My simple answer to him was there is no LIS for a counter trend trade. There is ONLY LIS if one is taking trade with the trend. LIS can be 95, 97 etc. Each trader has to find one. But to say 92.50 is LIS when CL is in macro bearish mode does not add up in my experience.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Q) do you have any ideas on trading around opening ranges when you dont have the ability to carry trades over night or only have time during RTH hours for instruments like the CL and TF?

A) My recommendation will be to stay away from Globex session. I do not trade Globex session. Whenever i did, it did not work out. I do however take trades around 8 am eastern time and after that before OR is formed. For TF, i always wait for OR to be formed and market internals to give some ddirection before taking a trade. I can not trade TF, NQ etc without market internals.

For CL, trades before OR are not many but when i do take trades they are always with the macro trend. For example, this monday CL ran up from 91.80 low to 93.97 during Globex session. That's a 217 ticks move in a bearish macro trend. I shorted 93.80 area around 8 am. That was my main premise- a 217 ticks move against a bearish trend. There was no macro news like war in middle east etc so there was no risk of further out size move to the upside.

Problem is that one can not use 15 ticks stop loss saying short 93.80, stop loss 94.01. Price could have easily gone to 94.30 and then reverse. Who knows. All i knew i am not going long at highs and i was willing to accept trade going against me.

In summary, 90% of my trads are during RTH and and once OR is formed. Well, i do not wait for OR any more because based off experience, i have a pretty good sense where OR will get formed. I am not sure if i understood the question throughly so my answer may not make sense. Hit me with PM if my answer does not address the question.



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 mfbreakout 
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" and in the interest of staying with the trend short 91.87 again. I am aware of massive balance area in play, so i am not expecting CL to just sell off another 100 -200 ticks without force etc but i will take 50-70 ticks. Due to price being at low end of massive balance area, i am using relatively tight stop loss."

Cover some 91.11.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Fellow Euro traders joined the party in CL and put the hammer down in GC. Trading is somewhat like James Bond Series.
Over last 50 years it has evolved and adapted with time but CORE has stayed the same and that's what makes the series a HIT after HIT throughout the World. In trading keep your CORE and adjust/adapt to market conditions.

I am still not as comfortable with GC as i am with CL. The hold time in GC for a move to play out is agoinizing to say the least. Plus it requires a wide stop loss and i am still not sure if the trade will work out the way i thought it will. The worst part is P&L fluctuation in between till some decent moves come along. If one wants to scalp it's a different story but i am trying to saty away from scalping GC. After trading GC, SI etc. trading CL feels like a walk in the park. GC and the like are very very different animals. In my 1 year of trading GC- on whole i am break even after all said and done. So far lossess and gains are equally matched. Problem was i started trading GC without paying any attention to macro headwinds. I was like i know some technical analysis, i will trade GC just based on that. If one wants to time a trade better, one needs to have some understanding of what is going on from macro point of view. My trades will eventually play out but never when i wanted. I will be in a trade for hours, days and then just get out with some serious loss.




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 mfbreakout 
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ORL, Rubber band stretched, divergence- you name it. Long 90.71 and out 91.52. Looking for shorts unless we have attacked RUSSIA with full force.

Everything changes except OR meaning one can come up with all kinds of support but based off today OR, at 9 am this morning that was the support. That's it. Everything else is just day dreaming. I would have horted 90.40 also if the pressure was there to go below ORL. But there was none.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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NG and Conviction.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Short 91.85, 91.98, 92.18. I am SURPRISED how high CL has come but i get SURPRISED every day. Cover some 91.65 area.

How high this kite will go? I have no idea - just guess. But who trades based off guess? Sometimes that's all we have.
Since i do not know for sure, we trade appropriate size or just sit on hands to wait for more confirmation. All i am thinking about is 90.40 to 92.20? or 92.50 etc. Maybe one more exhausation up move, i thought we had it around 92 but does not look like it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Short 91.85, 91.98, 92.18. I am SURPRISED how high CL has come but i get SURPRISED every day. Cover some 91.65 area.

How high this kite will go? I have no idea - just guess. But who trades based off guess? Sometimes that's all we have.
Since i do not know for sure, we trade appropriate size or just sit on hands to wait for more confirmation. All i am thinking about is 90.40 to 92.20? or 92.50 etc. Maybe one more exhausation up move, i thought we had it around 92 but does not look like it.


Kite is staying high and tight up there. loaded up on shorts 92.34 , Cover 91.74 area , held some and CL back up to 92.50 area. On moves like these there is a lot more underway than we will ever know or need to know.
A trader can be wrong and still come out ahead provided he does not loose sight of BIG PICTURE and have plenty of dry powder. i will never ever add to a position on a counter trend trade but more than happy to do it on a trend trade.
One can argue that trend of the day is up. OK but i am not going long at 92 or 92.50 etc. Not shorting is perfectly good strategy but going long up here does not add up for me.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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NQ and tech space.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Today on everyones mind BIG QUESTION is amazement at the BIG upside Rip up from 90.40 area. Following is what i can add;

1) Look at chart i posted couple of days ago and posted below. Big Balance area. When rubber band is too stretched there is always a probability of a SNAP BACK. How much , when , where and how is always uncertain. One just have to be prepared for the ONE.

2) When ORL is formed at 90.40 and there is no more selling, it has to go back up. I had no idea that CL will be kissing 93 at the end of the day. I got out my long at 91.55. After that there were ONLY shorts for me in 92 and above area. I did not made a killing, i just did OK on shorts. Obviously, i was wrong from 91.55 to 93. But trading is not about being right ot wrong. It's about taking probabilities into account and then trade. Thus, even though i could have made more money from the long side, there never was enough of a pullback for me to try long. I stuck to my PLAN and did OK even though i was on the wrong side from 92 to 93.


3) If this reaction was to Mr. Obama speech of last night at 9 pm, then it's a lame one. Asian and Euro traders had all the time in the WORLD to react to that so called news but CL continued to sell off 140 ticks during Globex session.

Bottom line BAND was too stretched and it just snaped back.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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CL kite has remained high and tight through Globex session. Staying short. Following notes show, how i am trying to manage it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Basically using rope a dope strategy in CL since yesterday afternoon.

" The rope-a-dope is a boxing fighting style commonly associated with Muhammad Ali in his 1974 Rumble in the Jungle match against George Foreman.

In competitive situations other than boxing, rope-a-dope is used to describe strategies in which one party purposely puts itself in what appears to be a losing position, attempting thereby to become the eventual victor."




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Quoting 
When you make him use his best shots and you know he's not hitting you.

An old fave and still brilliant.

Travel Well
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 mfbreakout 
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Well from 11 in the afternoon yesterday till 8 am this morning- Rope A Dope. I would have preferred to be trading with size on the long side yesterday but my mind was fixated on shorts after making it from short side for 4 weeks.
As long as one can keep BIG PICTURE in mind and get flexible- one has a chance. These are not the trades where one can say short 92.98 with LIS stop loss 93.15 etc. The kite is still high and tight and can run back up, stay in a range etc.
It does not have to pullback 100-200 ticks. A reversal like yesterday's does not just flips over. Time for caution when something does not lines up. Either way, we know what to do.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Shorts and Shorts in CL, TF. If after 5 minutes of taking a trade- you are self doubting yourself, don't trade NY open.
All those neatly packaged patterns most of us try to trade has no chance. You will see P&L fluctuate up and down and it's not EASY for most traders. There is lot more which goes on at NY open than other times and that's why it's HIGH RISK: HIGH REWARD time frame.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I am forever thankful to Bsinks for introducing dave the trader to me. I love it.

" Let me get my calculater out and buy me a seneca". " Hold on to 1000 shares for a RAINY day".

According to Bsinks nobody like sit because truth is HARD. Bsinks, please post if you find more videos by dave the trader.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Short right at open targeting ORL and thinking that day will be a typical rotational day. As internals got -ve got really bearish and added to shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
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Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,688 received

I got a message yesterday from someone that i am setting up bad example of trying to pick tops.

A) Read the disclaimer with each post.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #397 (permalink)
 Bsinks 
Wichita Falls TX/United States
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Soybeans, Crude, Natural Gas
 
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Posts: 82 since Dec 2013
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mfbreakout View Post
I am forever thankful to Bsinks for introducing dave the trader to me. I love it.

" Let me get my calculater out and buy me a seneca". " Hold on to 1000 shares for a RAINY day".

According to Bsinks nobody like sit because truth is HARD. Bsinks, please post if you find more videos by dave the trader.


LOL.......I'm not sure that's exactly how you found that video........but your welcome.......And thanks for all your insights to the markets, and your post in this thread. we are lucky to have you here.......I will look for good videos......

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 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
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Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,688 received

Love affair with CL from the short side over last 4 weeks continues.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 jthom 
Sydney / Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: AMP
Trading: Oil
 
Posts: 118 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 128 given, 105 received



Hey Guys,

Here is a trade I took on Friday's session.
My analysis / gut feeling indicated the shorts would be on the move again. Especially since the bulls in control the previous session. Trade went ok. I probably got in too early. Should of waited for OR to form.
However I was still quietly confident even when the trade was going against me. Was targeting ORL. Trade made 30 ticks.
I recall @mfbreakout stating somewhat - You can short the market a million times and constantly be stopped out because you are worrying about 10 - 12 - 16 - 20 tick stop loss. Then the market GOES DOWN - you are not short and you have a 40 tick drawdown for the day.

Good luck this week traders. Would be good to read some pre analysis. (just joe - hint hint)

Thanks

James

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 jthom 
Sydney / Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: AMP
Trading: Oil
 
Posts: 118 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 128 given, 105 received



Hey guys,

Took this trade at commodity open. Should of probably waited for OR to form AGAIN.
Anticipated buying into Friday's Close. Went Long.
I think my scalping protection kicked in after breach of 92.00.
Didn't want to give back the ticks even though I was aiming for 92.20 (Fridays Close)
Eventually it hits my target, but got out too early.
Will keep an eye on that!

Trade made 41 ticks.

Thanks

James

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