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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #381 (permalink)
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" and in the interest of staying with the trend short 91.87 again. I am aware of massive balance area in play, so i am not expecting CL to just sell off another 100 -200 ticks without force etc but i will take 50-70 ticks. Due to price being at low end of massive balance area, i am using relatively tight stop loss."

Cover some 91.11.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #382 (permalink)
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Fellow Euro traders joined the party in CL and put the hammer down in GC. Trading is somewhat like James Bond Series.
Over last 50 years it has evolved and adapted with time but CORE has stayed the same and that's what makes the series a HIT after HIT throughout the World. In trading keep your CORE and adjust/adapt to market conditions.

I am still not as comfortable with GC as i am with CL. The hold time in GC for a move to play out is agoinizing to say the least. Plus it requires a wide stop loss and i am still not sure if the trade will work out the way i thought it will. The worst part is P&L fluctuation in between till some decent moves come along. If one wants to scalp it's a different story but i am trying to saty away from scalping GC. After trading GC, SI etc. trading CL feels like a walk in the park. GC and the like are very very different animals. In my 1 year of trading GC- on whole i am break even after all said and done. So far lossess and gains are equally matched. Problem was i started trading GC without paying any attention to macro headwinds. I was like i know some technical analysis, i will trade GC just based on that. If one wants to time a trade better, one needs to have some understanding of what is going on from macro point of view. My trades will eventually play out but never when i wanted. I will be in a trade for hours, days and then just get out with some serious loss.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #383 (permalink)
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ORL, Rubber band stretched, divergence- you name it. Long 90.71 and out 91.52. Looking for shorts unless we have attacked RUSSIA with full force.

Everything changes except OR meaning one can come up with all kinds of support but based off today OR, at 9 am this morning that was the support. That's it. Everything else is just day dreaming. I would have horted 90.40 also if the pressure was there to go below ORL. But there was none.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #384 (permalink)
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NG and Conviction.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Short 91.85, 91.98, 92.18. I am SURPRISED how high CL has come but i get SURPRISED every day. Cover some 91.65 area.

How high this kite will go? I have no idea - just guess. But who trades based off guess? Sometimes that's all we have.
Since i do not know for sure, we trade appropriate size or just sit on hands to wait for more confirmation. All i am thinking about is 90.40 to 92.20? or 92.50 etc. Maybe one more exhausation up move, i thought we had it around 92 but does not look like it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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mfbreakout View Post
Short 91.85, 91.98, 92.18. I am SURPRISED how high CL has come but i get SURPRISED every day. Cover some 91.65 area.

How high this kite will go? I have no idea - just guess. But who trades based off guess? Sometimes that's all we have.
Since i do not know for sure, we trade appropriate size or just sit on hands to wait for more confirmation. All i am thinking about is 90.40 to 92.20? or 92.50 etc. Maybe one more exhausation up move, i thought we had it around 92 but does not look like it.


Kite is staying high and tight up there. loaded up on shorts 92.34 , Cover 91.74 area , held some and CL back up to 92.50 area. On moves like these there is a lot more underway than we will ever know or need to know.
A trader can be wrong and still come out ahead provided he does not loose sight of BIG PICTURE and have plenty of dry powder. i will never ever add to a position on a counter trend trade but more than happy to do it on a trend trade.
One can argue that trend of the day is up. OK but i am not going long at 92 or 92.50 etc. Not shorting is perfectly good strategy but going long up here does not add up for me.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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NQ and tech space.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Today on everyones mind BIG QUESTION is amazement at the BIG upside Rip up from 90.40 area. Following is what i can add;

1) Look at chart i posted couple of days ago and posted below. Big Balance area. When rubber band is too stretched there is always a probability of a SNAP BACK. How much , when , where and how is always uncertain. One just have to be prepared for the ONE.

2) When ORL is formed at 90.40 and there is no more selling, it has to go back up. I had no idea that CL will be kissing 93 at the end of the day. I got out my long at 91.55. After that there were ONLY shorts for me in 92 and above area. I did not made a killing, i just did OK on shorts. Obviously, i was wrong from 91.55 to 93. But trading is not about being right ot wrong. It's about taking probabilities into account and then trade. Thus, even though i could have made more money from the long side, there never was enough of a pullback for me to try long. I stuck to my PLAN and did OK even though i was on the wrong side from 92 to 93.


3) If this reaction was to Mr. Obama speech of last night at 9 pm, then it's a lame one. Asian and Euro traders had all the time in the WORLD to react to that so called news but CL continued to sell off 140 ticks during Globex session.

Bottom line BAND was too stretched and it just snaped back.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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CL kite has remained high and tight through Globex session. Staying short. Following notes show, how i am trying to manage it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Basically using rope a dope strategy in CL since yesterday afternoon.

" The rope-a-dope is a boxing fighting style commonly associated with Muhammad Ali in his 1974 Rumble in the Jungle match against George Foreman.

In competitive situations other than boxing, rope-a-dope is used to describe strategies in which one party purposely puts itself in what appears to be a losing position, attempting thereby to become the eventual victor."




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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November 27, 2014


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