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COMMON SENSE
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COMMON SENSE

  #371 (permalink)
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flush down


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" No Longs. Only shorts into bounces is what i am looking at, if i trade CL at all for rest of the day. May try long if FLUSH down comes to the down side around 92.50 to 92 area."

Reshort.

Flush down came and rip back up. long 92.68 .Video game in full action. Looks like low of the day is in around 92.50 and we have 92.50 to 93.50 trading box in play.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #372 (permalink)
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BULLS

ES can pullback 40 points and bullish trend will remian intact. A useless piece of information which even a blind man can see. Don't buy at highs - O.K but do not short either because no one knows how high it can go- OK. How about rotation? I will short whenever internals line up.

Shorts and shorts in TF. Feels like entire market was trading with AAPL. It was quite a tortures Journey today as TF kept bouncing off ORL but then AAPL news headfake and BOOM. Market internals remained -ve for the entire day, so i was comfortable with shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-2014-09-09_1523_nyse.png   COMMON SENSE-2014-09-09_1547_aapl.png   COMMON SENSE-2014-09-09_1550_opc.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; September 9th, 2014 at 05:03 PM.
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  #373 (permalink)
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VIX


Never thought about VIX and her relation with market this way. Make sense.

"Nomura's bearish strategist Bob Janjuah believes the stock market could continue to rally to new highs given current market conditions.
"As I have said for at least a year now, until and unless we see a weekly close (ideally consecutive weekly closes) in the VIX index below 10, then I judge risk-on has more to go," Janjuah wrote in his latest note to clients.

Janjuah is referring to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of options traders' expectations for future market volatility.

"We got close in June/early July, but we did not get there. I would expect that, if I am right about the next quarter or two, then VIX should hit this target during this timeframe."



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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COMMON SENSE-2014-09-09_1805_vix.png  
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  #374 (permalink)
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Randomness

Rather than answer each question individually, please see chart. Key point is to understand randomness and trade accordingly. My recommendation will be to stay away from crude if you are a type of trader who takes each trade as a matter of life and death- like a gun fight, you aim , take a short, either you are ALIVE or DEAD. Unfortunately, that's all happens all day long all over the net.

A typical scenario " I shorted CL, had to endure 15 ticks of heat, went in my favour 20 ticks and then reversed on me. I will be more disciplined next time". " My LIS is this and that - why? because look at all the long wicks" and on and on.


NOTE: Anytime i am trading small position size, i am trading randomness of price movement. ONLY way i know as how to handle randomness is to have dry powder handy, trade small and give trade lot of room. There is no point in beating yourself up day after day trying to put randomness in a neat little TIFFANY box. To think that price could not have gotten higher when i shorted this morning around 92.92 is a FOOLS GAME , not worth playing.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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COMMON SENSE-2014-09-10_0755_randomness.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; September 10th, 2014 at 11:15 AM.
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  #375 (permalink)
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Trading

Direction of an instruement is not random. In between there is lot of randomness for reasons too many to elborate and worry about.

Cover some 91.54 and staying short till REAL buying or short covering comes into play.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
 
  #376 (permalink)
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Trading

What to do when everything lines up but no follow through? Cut down size and be ready when party get started or get ruined in case of reversal.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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COMMON SENSE-2014-09-10_1113_tf.png  
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  #377 (permalink)
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balance area

Need new effort and energy to break out of balance area. Will it happen today, next week or get defnded again and CL bounces back up? I have no idea. All we can do put the odds and watch. ORL around 91.40 did not get formed by accident.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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COMMON SENSE-2014-09-07_1942_balance.png  
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  #378 (permalink)
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TF

Long hold off ORL on failed A down.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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COMMON SENSE-2014-09-10_1629_opc.png  
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  #379 (permalink)
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Trading

I keep geeting questions regarding pin pointing execution etc. I do not understand or believe in the concept of PIN POINT execution, 1:3 risk:reward set ups etc.
I can give standard answer with charts saying that this was a PICTURE PERFECT set up, or this is the best A+ set up etc but there are none.

I spent years running after such concepts. Finally, i settled upon position size as a tool to reflect my confidence in a set up . As i have posted in the past that out of entire trading days on a yearly basis, my experiience tells me 20% of trading days are worth putting size on. I know of more experienced traders than myself whose experience is different than mine. So take it with a GRAIN OF SALT.

Followers of my last journal are basically surprised as to how much i have changed in 2014. It's true. My biggest changes are as following;

1) Trade with trend and do not worry about price bouncing in between. If i can not handle retracements, hold time required to get paid, i cut down size.

2)I add to my position in the trend. If i am short 92.50 and price goes up to 93 etc. It does not mean trend has changed. All it means my timing was off. I will add to shorts. Use wide stop loss and keep lot of powder dry.

3) If i take counter trend trades like longs in CL over last 3 weeks, very small position size and relatively small stop loss.

4) To take a counter trend trade with size, the bar for proof of evidence is very high for me.

I understand that it took me 5 years to get to this point and it may not be helpful to other traders but that's the way it is. I do not expect other to do the same. I was told the same things early in my career by other experienced traders but i have to come to this point on my own.

and in the interest of staying with the trend short 91.87 again. I am aware of massive balance area in play, so i am not expecting CL to just sell off another 100 -200 ticks without force etc but i will take 50-70 ticks. Due to price being at low end of massive balance area, i am using relatively tight stop loss. When price just get stuck at major decision point. Two things can happen;

1) Either it get out of balance area and continues down move- which i am hoping for.

2) or it reverts back up because rubber band being so stretched or CL needs to lure more buyers in to facilitate shorts. That's the reason for relatively tight stop loss vs my standard 150 ticks stop loss.

Funny thing is i have not been stopped out in a year. Got caught couple of time when CL bounced more than i expected but i took care of CL the next day because sooner or later air comes out of counter trend moves. In summary, i have no problem being wrong due to timing when taking trades with the trend. Following example is a BIG NO, the way i trade.

" I was talking with a fellow trader today. First, he had this line in the sand support at 92.50. He went long around that area and got stopped out. As price got stuck around 92 area, he went long 92.10 and got stopped again. I asked him why he went long 92 if 92.50 was line in the sand? No good answer. He was afraid to short 92.90 becuase CL was looking bullish. Finally, he was afraid to go long 91.40 because it was looking bearish".

My simple answer to him was there is no LIS for a counter trend trade. There is ONLY LIS if one is taking trade with the trend. LIS can be 95, 97 etc. Each trader has to find one. But to say 92.50 is LIS when CL is in macro bearish mode does not add up in my experience.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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COMMON SENSE-2014-09-10_1643_opc.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; September 10th, 2014 at 06:38 PM.
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  #380 (permalink)
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Trading


Q) do you have any ideas on trading around opening ranges when you dont have the ability to carry trades over night or only have time during RTH hours for instruments like the CL and TF?

A) My recommendation will be to stay away from Globex session. I do not trade Globex session. Whenever i did, it did not work out. I do however take trades around 8 am eastern time and after that before OR is formed. For TF, i always wait for OR to be formed and market internals to give some ddirection before taking a trade. I can not trade TF, NQ etc without market internals.

For CL, trades before OR are not many but when i do take trades they are always with the macro trend. For example, this monday CL ran up from 91.80 low to 93.97 during Globex session. That's a 217 ticks move in a bearish macro trend. I shorted 93.80 area around 8 am. That was my main premise- a 217 ticks move against a bearish trend. There was no macro news like war in middle east etc so there was no risk of further out size move to the upside.

Problem is that one can not use 15 ticks stop loss saying short 93.80, stop loss 94.01. Price could have easily gone to 94.30 and then reverse. Who knows. All i knew i am not going long at highs and i was willing to accept trade going against me.

In summary, 90% of my trads are during RTH and and once OR is formed. Well, i do not wait for OR any more because based off experience, i have a pretty good sense where OR will get formed. I am not sure if i understood the question throughly so my answer may not make sense. Hit me with PM if my answer does not address the question.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; September 10th, 2014 at 11:26 PM.
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