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COMMON SENSE
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COMMON SENSE

  #351 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Gday

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Hey guys.
This trade had multiple entries. Second entry was at close of RTH.
I must say, increasing position size requires good management of risk.
Trade went 10 ticks against me and I proceeded to work out a exit method.
However intuition paid off.
I was aiming for bottom of OR or below 94 (where stops were.)
Risk management made me flee after bear spike bar.
These spike bars always SCARE me. Always fearful of fast reversals.

Trade made +57 ticks

@mfbreakout - Thanks for your charts once again. Always inspirational to see them daily.

Have a great weekend guys!


Last edited by jthom; September 5th, 2014 at 11:45 AM.
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  #352 (permalink)
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shorts

No Body home. Yetserday was used to get longs excited which continued this morning and then BOOM.

Next 93 area to break whetehr it's today or CL just rotate between 94 and 93 area remains to be seen. 94.90 to 93.40= 150 ticks fits within ATR.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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COMMON SENSE-2014-09-05_1103_short.png  
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  #353 (permalink)
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Trading


Fellow trader from down under- Jthom,

In the spirit of helping each other, try to ignore following things. These are your true feelings. I went through them and still do. However, it's a good idea to come up with a plan to undersatnd what they mean and how it can -vely limit a traders TRUE potential.

1) Trade went 10 ticks against me.

2) Risk management made me flee after bear spike bar.
These spike bars always SCARE me. Always fearful of fast reversals.

Later on i will post my experience as to how to overcome " FEAR OF REVERSAL". The biggest fear of all- which i still have from time to time.

Good trading.

NOTE: I listen to your country mate and others from around the world to keep calm. She is mine and my wife favourite.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; September 5th, 2014 at 12:41 PM.
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  #354 (permalink)
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Trading

Flush down to 92.86. Rubber band quite stretched. Reversion to the mean long. 93.21 and out 93.62.

CL back to scene of crime. Where and how far it will bounce? Will it trade in a box of 93 to 94 or test 92.50 area?

I have no idea. All i know A down is confirmed. Rubber band snap back long happened and i am shorting bounces.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #355 (permalink)
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Trading


mfbreakout View Post
Flush down to 92.86. Rubber band quite stretched. Reversion to the mean long. 93.21 and out 93.62.

CL back to scene of crime. Where and how far it will bounce? Will it trade in a box of 93 to 94 or test 92.50 area?

I have no idea. All i know A down is confirmed. Rubber band snap back long happened and i am shorting bounces.


and week is finally over as far as CL is concerned. Cover 93.07. Flat.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #356 (permalink)
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r r ratio and others things


mfbreakout View Post
No Body home. Yetserday was used to get longs excited which continued this morning and then BOOM.

Next 93 area to break whetehr it's today or CL just rotate between 94 and 93 area remains to be seen. 94.90 to 93.40= 150 ticks fits within ATR.

i was thinking in your stop atr+150 =300 tick, what do you think about statistical approach to trading? do you keep some rr ratio?
or as cl example you see the direction and short short and short
no rr, no taget, only seeing and executing
thank you
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #357 (permalink)
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Trading


alejo View Post
i was thinking in your stop atr+150 =300 tick, what do you think about statistical approach to trading? do you keep some rr ratio?
or as cl example you see the direction and short short and short
no rr, no taget, only seeing and executing
thank you
alejo


Statistical approach to trading? No rr, No target, only seeing and executing? I am not sure i understand the question but i will try to answer.

The only statistic which matters to me is price behavior within OR in relation to ATR and weekly trend. For stop loss, following is the KEY,

1) For last 4 weeks CL has been in a bearish trend. This means i am more confident in shorting CL and will keep adding to my shorts regardless how much price has moved against me. Mostly when it moves against me it's around 30-50 ticks. In almost every instance i am aware of probability of price moving against me before i take the trade.
Last Friday, i shorted 94.62 area - against ORH area. I make sure everything lines up so that probability of CL moving against me is very little. 95.84 area is my resistance area. It does not matter as to why i think 95.84 is a resistance area. We all have various levels.

Important thing for me is not to get worried if CL ends up, let's say to 95.20 area, a 58 ticks move against my entry. When price moves up, i try to see if it's due to REAL buying or just illusion of buying to facilitate 2 sided trades. If buying is underway with FORCE, i just hit market order and get out. I do not just sit and see if my 150 ticks STOP LOSS gets hit.

2) If i take counter trend trades, my stop loss is tight and targets modest 40-60 ticks. Any long over last 4 weeks with the exception of couple of days in between would have been a counter trend trade. In that case tight stop loss and modest targets.


As far as R:R is concerned, i focus on .0025 daily rate of return on my total capital. My goal is to hit daily goal 3 out of 5 trading days. Further i trade way below my account size and thus i can afford to HOLD , add to a position when trading with trend etc. That's the edge for me. Edge is in picking direction of the trend correctly and then letting the trade work outside random price movement. Any tool which helps a trader- DOME, order flow etc- to reduce the probability of a trade turning against one position is OK but then do not put so much emphasis and burden on your tools by saying short 94.62 stop loss 94.81 and then constantly worrying about the trade.

If a trade works in my favour without much heat it's great but if it does not then i do not start blaming myself as to why this and why that kind of scenarios. My main responsibility as a trader is to pick direction of the trend correctly , whether it works without much heat or after giving some heat- is not a major issue.

I get asked a lot as to how to handle a trade going against one position till it eventually does? ONLY way i know is to have lot of dry powder handy- meaning trade under your limit and be willing to use that limit when situation/set up becomes more clear. Anyone who thinks that he/she knew that on last Friday CL will not go above ORH because MACD divergence or whatever else one is using and thus it's OK to use a 15 ticks stop loss has a long way to go.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-2014-09-06_1522_final.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; September 6th, 2014 at 04:26 PM.
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  #358 (permalink)
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Balance Area

When a volatile market such as crude oil trades near or outside an extreme of a balance area, the following are the two most likely scenarios:

Trade outside the balance extreme and accelerate.
Trade near, or outside, the balance extreme and fail. The failure usually results in rotation to the opposite extreme of that balance area.

Downside Continuation

If the market gains acceptance below the 9262-balance-bracket low, the 9124-fourteen-month low would be the first target. With acceptance below the 9124-fourteen-month low, the next references on the monthly chart are 9011 and 8561.

Downside Breakout Failure

If the market trades below 9262 and fails, a rotation back up to the 9600-three-week-balance high over time is a strong possibility.


NOTE: Above analysis is a good general overview. Once daily OR is formed that's when we get into action.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-2014-09-07_1942_balance.png  
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  #359 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Statistical approach to trading? No rr, No target, only seeing and executing? I am not sure i understand the question but i will try to answer.

The only statistic which matters to me is price behavior within OR in relation to ATR and weekly trend. For stop loss, following is the KEY,

1) For last 4 weeks CL has been in a bearish trend. This means i am more confident in shorting CL and will keep adding to my shorts regardless how much price has moved against me. Mostly when it moves against me it's around 30-50 ticks. In almost every instance i am aware of probability of price moving against me before i take the trade.
Last Friday, i shorted 94.62 area - against ORH area. I make sure everything lines up so that probability of CL moving against me is very little. 95.84 area is my resistance area. It does not matter as to why i think 95.84 is a resistance area. We all have various levels.

Important thing for me is not to get worried if CL ends up, let's say to 95.20 area, a 58 ticks move against my entry. When price moves up, i try to see if it's due to REAL buying or just illusion of buying to facilitate 2 sided trades. If buying is underway with FORCE, i just hit market order and get out. I do not just sit and see if my 150 ticks STOP LOSS gets hit.

2) If i take counter trend trades, my stop loss is tight and targets modest 40-60 ticks. Any long over last 4 weeks with the exception of couple of days in between would have been a counter trend trade. In that case tight stop loss and modest targets.


As far as R:R is concerned, i focus on .0025 daily rate of return on my total capital. My goal is to hit daily goal 3 out of 5 trading days. Further i trade way below my account size and thus i can afford to HOLD , add to a position when trading with trend etc. That's the edge for me. Edge is in picking direction of the trend correctly and then letting the trade work outside random price movement. Any tool which helps a trader- DOME, order flow etc- to reduce the probability of a trade turning against one position is OK but then do not put so much emphasis and burden on your tools by saying short 94.62 stop loss 94.81 and then constantly worrying about the trade.

If a trade works in my favour without much heat it's great but if it does not then i do not start blaming myself as to why this and why that kind of scenarios. My main responsibility as a trader is to pick direction of the trend correctly , whether it works without much heat or after giving some heat- is not a major issue.

I get asked a lot as to how to handle a trade going against one position till it eventually does? ONLY way i know is to have lot of dry powder handy- meaning trade under your limit and be willing to use that limit when situation/set up becomes more clear. Anyone who thinks that he/she knew that on last Friday CL will not go above ORH because MACD divergence or whatever else one is using and thus it's OK to use a 15 ticks stop loss has a long way to go.

This is a great post, the gap between what is pushed and taught to the retail and how consistent traders operate seems to be vast

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  #360 (permalink)
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"Edge is in picking direction of the trend correctly and then letting the trade work outside random price movement"

All is said here.

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