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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #311 (permalink)
BOSTON, MA
 
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It's always a good idea to wait for OR to set in before taking a trade. For example, this morning before NY open, i shorted 93.90, added to short 94.16 , 94.40 etc - all this while OR was getting formed.

I am testing some new set ups, so it was O.K plus i was trading way under my trading size.

Had i waited for OR to be formed, i wiould not have to endure trade going against me around 50 ticks. I mostly do wait for OR to get formed before trading but sometimes like all traders, i get too excited to put on a trade.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #312 (permalink)
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Low Volatility- How to trade it?

ONLY way i know is to trade way below your trading size, be prepared for price to go beyond whatever support/resistance one comes up with within a reason and then HOLD. Most importantly do not Mikey Mouse a trade as algos will eat your lunch all day long.

Mikey Mouse trade: One of the signs that a trader is trading against algos etc is a post like " All the indicators lined up , grabbed 21 ticks in 3 minute with no heat".



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #313 (permalink)
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Several traders have asked me about my recent change in trading style in terms of stop loss, targets , hold time etc.
Change may appear to be recent on surface but it's been slowly underway since 2013. I have started executing it more and more as i see improvement in my results.

Following is an example of a typical week from 2012.

Monday: # of contracts traded 24. gains= $300. Intraday drawdown=0, number of trades=10
Tuesday : # of contracts traded 30. gains= $600. Intraday drawdown= $800, number of trades= 12
Wednesday: # of contracts traded 24: gains= $1200. Intraday draw down= $400, number of trades= 10
Thursday: # of contracts traded 30: Gains= ( 500), Intraday draw down= (1200), number of trades =12
friday: # of contracts traded 16: Gains= $200, Intraday down =0, number of trades= 8

Gross Gains for the week= $1800

Total contracts traded= 124. Lot of traders including me ( used to) will not consider 124 contracts ( round trip) a high number. It is not. However, it is very high if all one can do is clear $1800/week on so many contracts. $1800 all by itself looks quite good but in my estimation - one is one trade away from giving it all up . I used to try to focus on loss by doining typical things which most of us do till it dawned on me to FOCUS on gains instead of loss. Basically, per my analysis, all of my trades were Mikey Mouse trades. I was 100% focused on not loosing big ( whatever that means) and finishing the week +ve.

I keep track of some other stats. like number of scratches , number of loosing trades etc. However, the most important
stats. for me is the numbers of contracts traded. The difference between 2012,2013 and now is that if i am trading 24 contracts ( round trip) for the day, i want $1400 to $2500/day Vs for the week. Even this number is low.

When i look at stats of 2012, one thing is very CLEAR- it's not a very efficent trading style based off how i define risk: reward and host of other things.
In summary, biggest change is less number of trades/day, wider stop loss, long hold time , avoiding Mikey Mouse trades, avoiding trades when price is moving up or down too fast ( even though these provide the greatest amount of pleasure and i still can not completely avoid them), more relaxed, trading multiple instruements, trying to build a position and being VERY, VERY aware of as to what's underway when price is moving up or down. I used to think everytime CL moved 60 ticks to the upside, there were buyers. It's very important to differentiate between REAL buying or practice of luring traders in to facilitate shorts being put on. We see it all the time, CL running 60 ticks to the upside and then slowly down 100 ticks with usual SONG and DANCE in between.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #314 (permalink)
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Jthon, that was a very nice trade. It takes guts to trade against the trend. Congratulations and share some more.

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  #315 (permalink)
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justtrader View Post
Jthon, that was a very nice trade. It takes guts to trade against the trend. Congratulations and share some more.

Well you been a memebr of futures.io (formerly BMT) since 2011. Do not be shy and share here and there.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #316 (permalink)
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L l.q

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  #317 (permalink)
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Still nice +ve day but did not turned out to be what internals etc were pointing to.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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justtrader View Post
Jthon, that was a very nice trade. It takes guts to trade against the trend. Congratulations and share some more.

Hey justtrader,

From the commodities open till 9:15 EST I was reluctant to buy ahead. OR was massive and made me slightly anxious.
I felt that buyers would be a force today and if I sold, it would not be for too much. I essentially waited for 5 min uptrend to fail while more importantly identifying the A UP FAILURE. That was my only grounds to short. It was slightly a heart attack trade (especially watching the tape.) Knowing CL's behavior, the massive fast bear breakout made me think fast to get out. I knew it would reverse quickly based on buying force represented earlier.
In retrospect I was lucky.
I am essentially still new to ACD. This method highly fascinates me. Being a breakout adrenaline / heart failure trader for 7 years and being terrible at it, this is a GREAT alternative.

My problem at the moment is placing effective stop management. Recognizing at what point price will reach, to realize its the wrong direction. Or places where algos will see your stop. Hit it. Then reverse.
I also have problems dealing with losses as well. Call it bad psychology. Especially taking a loss first.

I will post losses as well.

Thanks

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  #319 (permalink)
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Hi Jthom,

I noticed following in your post

1) OR was massive.

2) slightly heart attack trade.

3) massive fast bear breakout.

4) adernaline/heart failure.

5) Buyers would be a force today.

I picked these from your post because i used to have exactly the same thoughts/ gut feeling etc. Atleast in my case it meant i was just mesmermized by something which was just not there, i am not fully in control of my emotions and thus not in a position to execute trades properly and most importantly without FEAR.

Here is one who did it without FEAR.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #320 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Hi Jthom,

I noticed following in your post

1) OR was massive.

2) slightly heart attack trade.

3) massive fast bear breakout.

4) adernaline/heart failure.

5) Buyers would be a force today.

I picked these from your post because i used to have exactly the same thoughts/ gut feeling etc. Atleast in my case it meant i was just mesmermized by something which was just not there, i am not fully in control of my emotions and thus not in a position to execute trades properly and most importantly without FEAR.

Here is one who did it without FEAR.


hi, why do you not have fear?
thanks
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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