COMMON SENSE - futures io
futures io



COMMON SENSE


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one mfbreakout with 980 posts (2,732 thanks)
    2. looks_two sandptrader with 64 posts (128 thanks)
    3. looks_3 alejo with 36 posts (38 thanks)
    4. looks_4 madLyfe with 24 posts (25 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Surly with 3.4 thanks per post
    2. looks_two mfbreakout with 2.8 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 jthom with 2.6 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 sandptrader with 2 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 115,112 views
    2. thumb_up 3,303 thanks given
    3. group 64 followers
    1. forum 1,262 posts
    2. attach_file 811 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

Closed Thread
 
Search this Thread
 

COMMON SENSE

(login for full post details)
  #201 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


mfbreakout View Post
I did not look at weekly chart. What this chart is telling us? What does mid line means. How to trade this?

Thx


Context only. I do not trade with a weekly, I only look at it once a week or so to determine if I am close to a major pivot area. Thats it.....

In terms of your shorts yesterday and today, I think it provides context to determine potential hold times and potential turning points....and it looks as though we might be at one right now.....

That being said, the mid point is just that, the mid point. Price seems to have rotated around it pretty consistently if you are long term player in this market. Perhaps it will rotate to the bottom of the range again.

My experience with mid lines is they are a kind of directional filter for those wishing to trend trade using it as a pull back area or perhaps fade the edges back to the middle for those trading the range.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 2 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #202 (permalink)
 greenr 
london/england
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra charts, NinjaTrader, VK Trader
Broker: CQG, AMP, VK, Kinetick
Trading: CL/6E/TF/ES
 
Posts: 952 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 562 given, 1,279 received


mfbreakout View Post
CL gave me more headaches today then she has in a long time. I basically ignored failed A downs all day and was in shorts all day. Loss within limits and still holding shorts.

Every time i ignore ACd and do something else- it reminds me RULES of the game.

Added to short 97.70. Trying to manage my way out of CL.

CONTEXT: My main reason for gettting bearish in CL last night is due to the fact that even with all the troubles in Russia/ Ukraine- CL continues to be very weak. Nothing new here. CL has been weak for 2 weeks now. Gold ha sjumped 3% in 2 days on the news but CL no bid. So, instead of sticking with my daily routine of trading ACD, i decided to test event driven trades and has not worked out so far.

Hey been a while since i posted any analysis,

Here was my take on CL today.

Even though I am still macro bearish until we see a clean break below $97 we are still rotational in the current trading range.

So today my intra day plan was to fade yesterday's lows until proven that we was going to see the break out of this range with expansion to the sell side here.

The reason for this is because trying to time a break out market is very hard so again untill the proof is there you get chopped up in the fake outs. So until the imbalance card is shown my strategy is to play the range until a break out is shown along with a selling imbalance.

If any thing to me and the order flow/market making I have been watching this week we have seen buyer active below $97 capping this price level for the moment, this is either to get more business done here while value catches up with price or there are legitimate buyers in this key support zone. On the macros $97 is key support and again until broken could hold with reversion back to key levels over head.

Here is some context I am working with at the moment from Macro to Micro..

Monthly and weekly bars showing key support again until broken we should respect these levels, until we see the break out the expectation is rotational.


on the HTF Dvalues again from Macro to micro:

- the weekly is looking rotational with compression

- Monthly showing rotational with untested value above, so will we see a complete disconnect from last month with a break out here or are we going to see a revision back to last month's perception of value?

- Quarterly we are trading below last quarter's value now and this quarter's Davlue is imbalance to the sell side and value has been playing catch up with price currently rejecting the 1.5 SD. This could push prices lower as value catches up or we will come back into balance with a reversion to the mean with the hypothesis of testing last month's naked value

- The yearly is now looking rotational, a destination trade will be complete into $94 and we will see this with the break out below $97, but we are at key support here holding this years 0.5 SD.




Here is some other context to work with;



So we can clearly see $97 is a major fractal and major support here and until broken should be respected.

From an intra day perspective today here was my plan. We are currently still rotational so fade the extremes until we see a break out where we go with the selling imbalance.




Here is the current clear range we are in and until we break out my plan stays the same fade the extremes and play the range until we see the next directional move where I will go with the imbalance.


This is what I was looking at this morning on the 5 day composites, the mean price has shifted down now so will be interesting what play we get tomorrow now along with the day bracket, if we keep trading the way we are we have had 4 days of 1 time framing down now and the 5 EMA has caught right up so we'll be expecting a reaction tomorrow for either a break out or a complete change in marco bias if we hold support here and end this week with a compression bar into this $97 key support zone.


Daily RTH


So I think we are currently at very important support and again until we break this area and crude shows its next directional move I am being very careful shorting into this area from the lows of the current range. I have been positioning myself all week for a break out from the highs but ever time we see buyers cutting off sellers and no break down.

Anyway I know you're an awesome trader just thought I would share my maps

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
The following 10 users say Thank You to greenr for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #203 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

" The reason for this is because trying to time a break out market is very hard so again untill the proof is there you get chopped up in the fake outs. So until the imbalance card is shown my strategy is to play the range until a break out is shown along with a selling imbalance. ".

Agreed 100% and that's the beauty of ACD is. It keep a trader on the right side vs forcasting etc.
Thanks for your analysis and please post whenever you feel like on CL or any other instruement.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #204 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

1) Closed short in CL around 97.40. Short was from 97.02 area. long 97.40. Target 98.20 area and above it can run. I will be surprised if CL gets above 98.20 but i get surprised all the time.

2) Long GC around 1310.

3) Short TF. No takers for ES, NQ, TF.

Asian sessions typically do not have wide range, so not sure how long i will hold. Makes sense to use my RULE of using ATR as targets. Will see how it works out in Globex session.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #205 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Well thanks to Greenr and PandaWarrior post this afternoon , i started thinking about my short. I had no way of knowing that CL woud rip up like this during Asian session.

Was reading some research and saw GC, CL making move to the upside and TF, ES to the down side. Per Mark Fisher,
we trade first and ask questions later when there is unusual move underway.

The way CL closed today, i had already started thinking about closing my short.

First charts shows notes to myself on swing trading and 2nd one Asain session trade.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-07_1530_swing.png
Views:	71
Size:	195.8 KB
ID:	152750   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-07_2246_longs.png
Views:	65
Size:	219.5 KB
ID:	152751  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #206 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Out of swing trading mode in CL and back to day trading. Short 98.37. Just run of the mill pullback expectation set up. gave enough time to see if next leg up is in the cards.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #207 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

CL back to rotation. Short ideal target 97 area and see if longs make sense there.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-08_0815_short.png
Views:	63
Size:	221.7 KB
ID:	152773  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #208 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Forrest Vs Trees.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-08_0835_trees.png
Views:	71
Size:	172.6 KB
ID:	152774  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #209 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Q) Where was my stop loss on short from 98.13 area?


A) One should not follow my stop loss strategy. My risk profile is different from yours. Typically it's 100 ticks from my trade location. Most of the time it works for me. From time to time it does not work especially when i get aggressive.
For example, short of 97 area turned out to be too close to this week balance area. Even then trade gave plenty of time to get out but i was too focused on 95 and break of 95 without paying attention to low range of weekly balance area.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #210 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

As usual bullish/bearish calls from very experienced traders were of no use. Best thing to do is let market settle downn, internals giving some clues and then HOLD.

ORL of 1115 to 1125 area- pretty decent size move and counting. But based off my ATR targets, on a rotational day, i will take 6 points.

On CL shorts off ORH and now trying long off 97.20 for rotational move in a tight range , so small size for lunch money.

As posted this morning"CL back to rotation. Short ideal target 97 area and see if longs make sense there." Had to wait 3 hours for CL to come to an area to try long. On a tight range day, either do not trade or be very picky with set ups. Still not sure what caused 140 ticks rip up in CL during Asian session.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-08_1141_tf_long.png
Views:	51
Size:	170.4 KB
ID:	152804  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #211 (permalink)
 greenr 
london/england
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra charts, NinjaTrader, VK Trader
Broker: CQG, AMP, VK, Kinetick
Trading: CL/6E/TF/ES
 
Posts: 952 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 562 given, 1,279 received


mfbreakout View Post
As usual bullish/bearish calls from very experienced traders were of no use. Best thing to do is let market settle downn, internals giving some clues and then HOLD.

ORL of 1115 to 1125 area- pretty decent size move and counting. But based off my ATR targets, on a rotational day, i will take 6 points.

On CL shorts off ORH and now trying long off 97.20 for rotational move in a tight range , so small size for lunch money.

As posted this morning"CL back to rotation. Short ideal target 97 area and see if longs make sense there." Had to wait 3 hours for CL to come to an area to try long. On a tight range day, either do not trade or be very picky with set ups. Still not sure what caused 140 ticks rip up in CL during Asian session.

Intraday i sold this back down into yesterdays range,

We saw crude open with a small gap up today from yesterdays pit session into the 5 EMA.

One Time Framing down filter has been taken out suggesting more 2 way trade.

but again intra day i sold this back into yesterdays range back down to yesterdays fairest price.

this is what made the most sense intra day from a Auction Market Theory view






Now im waiting for more info

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
The following 3 users say Thank You to greenr for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #212 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Hi Greenr,

Everytime i visited London it rained but when sun came out it was always beautiful. Lot of bands got formed in London. Here is one from the master. Put the trade on, get numb and let the natural course follow is my motto.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #213 (permalink)
 greenr 
london/england
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra charts, NinjaTrader, VK Trader
Broker: CQG, AMP, VK, Kinetick
Trading: CL/6E/TF/ES
 
Posts: 952 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 562 given, 1,279 received


mfbreakout View Post
Hi Greenr,

Everytime i visited London it rained but when sun came out it was always beautiful. Lot of bands got formed in London. Here is one from the master. Put the trade on, get numb and let the natural course follow is my motto.


Yes your right London can be so beautiful!

I love this city but the weather does suck, its a real shame as i would like to live here the rest of my life but the weather is really driving me towards the USA.

Im still pretty young but the end plan will be to live in USA though the UK winter and come back here for our so called summers lol.

Give me a head up if you every in London

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
The following user says Thank You to greenr for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #214 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

This one for CACFUTURE. I can not get enough of Ms. Deneuve. I can not find some clips of one of my favourite movies of her, will post next time.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #215 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

" now trying long off 97.20 for rotational move in a tight range , so small size for lunch money."

While being numb as to what CL is doing , it just rang the bell asking what to do? Nothing to do for me except to book it.

Out flat 97.59.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #216 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

This one for bobarain. He takes his guitar pretty serious;y , so only the best for him.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #217 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

A beauty .

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-08_1326_pullback.png
Views:	83
Size:	188.3 KB
ID:	152817  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #218 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

No love from NG today. After a loss or gain - everything makes sense. Just define the risk and let the chip falls. Forgot to pay attention to rotatinal nature of every instruement and was looking some more selling pressure. There was none and slowly up 2% on the day. They all trade the same way most of the time.

RULE= Never short a dull market. But most of the time markets are dull and that's why this is a tough RULE to follow.
t Now looking at all the things i should have looked at before taking a trade- i am like how can i do this? Well that's how discretionary traders build their tool box and get ready for next time.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-08_1336_love.png
Views:	72
Size:	161.4 KB
ID:	152821  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #219 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

On Vacation till August 16th. Be safe and trade well.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #220 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

" 30-Year-Old Who Sold His Startup For $170 Million Just Wrote 1,284 Slides On How To Win Life"

Even though Ryan target Audience is 15-35 age group ( i am way above his target audience range) i like it.


Lessons From My 20s | Hive - A Network of Global Leaders


We have people all over the net who share and then we have people who troll different sites while keeping their identity hidden. I never understood , as an example, why anyone will follow my posts while keeping their identity hidden but i do not understand lot of things any way so i don't worry about it.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #221 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Some traders could not find some of the set ups in CL from my previous journal. Makes sense becuase it's a massive undertaking to go through it. Going through last 2 months of posts before i closed the journal should cover everything.

There are too many set ups to go over them all over again in this journal. I will share my favourite trading day to trade CL. Wednesday is my favourite day for couple of reasons.

1) High and low formed on those days are important for that day and rest of trading days till next wednesday.

2) Logic is simple. If after DOE report CL could only go as far it goes on that day- then that area is resistance for me and vice versa.

3) Do not get stuck on ticks. What i mean that if high on Wednesday is 98.20, do not get worried if CL goes to 98.40 on some macro news. In the bigger scheme of things , there is no difference between 98.20 or 98.40. ONLY EXCEPTION is if fresh new buying with FORCE shows up around Wednesday high and price runs up another 100 ticks etc. In that case 98 area becomes support. We are all familair with prior resistance becoming support. I need REAL evidence. Price going above some area by 20 ticks, 40 ticks etc with NO FORCE, NO FOLLOW THROUGH etc has no meaning.

attached charts are from 08-06-2014 (Wednesday) and then follow up from 08-07 and 08-08.


CORRECTION: First chart should read " Lets see how one could have traded 08-07 and 08-08 based of 08-06 high and low".

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-06_1607_wednesday.png
Views:	81
Size:	195.6 KB
ID:	153447   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-07_1616_thursday.png
Views:	74
Size:	159.3 KB
ID:	153448   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-08_1621_globex.png
Views:	71
Size:	190.8 KB
ID:	153449   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-08_1628_friday_rth.png
Views:	58
Size:	140.1 KB
ID:	153450  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #222 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

08-13-2014 Wednesday.

No indicator. Just context and hold.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-13_1651wednesday.png
Views:	75
Size:	170.5 KB
ID:	153451  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #223 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

08-14-2014 Thursday should complete the picture. I have listened to 100's of webinars and never ever got one set up to trade in terms of execution. I did however got lot of other stuff form these webinars which were of no value at the time i got them.

One can make a living trading CL just based of Wednesday refrence points and being patient and getting rid off all the JINGLE BELLS we all have. Everyone likes to talk about being price action trader and KISS approach to trading but when it comes for action KISS turns into something else.

NOTE: Traders who like to make forecats about where CL will be on this day and that day can SIMPLY dazzle everyone by their crystal ball prowess by running some backtests on wednesdays high and low , put a multiple for expansion beyond these levels and come out looking like what ever thet want to look like. Just make sure not to make forecast when macro events like gulf war etc. are on hand.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-14_1701thursdayforce.png
Views:	65
Size:	191.2 KB
ID:	153452  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 7 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #224 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Q) What's the most important question i ask every day after 45 minutes OR for CL is formed?


A) Why OR got formed where it got formed? and where it is in relation to last Wednesday ORH and ORL. With answer to these 2 questions RULES for video game get set and game starts to lure traders in. Without luring traders in there is no way for them to make money.

By luring i mean giving false sense of strength , weakness etc.


NOTE; These set ups are specific to CL. I am relatively new to trading TF, ZS, HG, GC etc. and in the process of finding their own specific SONG and DANCE which get played every day beyond normal SONG and DANCE which is consistent across all trading instruements.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 6 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #225 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Q) Someone asked me about title of my journal " Common Sense".

A) One may take meaning of "Common Sense" journal whatever they want. I have many reasons of my own.
I like following defination of common sense. Journal is not just about trading.


"Common sense is nothing more than a deposit of prejudices laid down in the mind before you reach eighteen."

["The Universe and Dr. Einstein"]

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #226 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Even though Mark Douglas entire presentation of more than an hour is availabe, i like to watch these in 9 minutes segments. Have watched them many times and will continue to watch whenever the inner voice says it's time to watch again.


In this segment besides many things Mark describes paper trading as being very important for many reasons including

" Paper trading is a graphic representation of mental skills you do not have".

He talks about it around 7.40 minutes into this 9 minutes video.



Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 6 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #227 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

DISCLAIMER: This is in no shape or form intended for other traders to use as a risk management advice/strategy.

There maybe traders who have turned a $10K trading account into millions or whatever. I personally do not know anyone or neither have found anyone ( not that i went looking for them). I have interacted with many, many traders who seem to have everything but execution/confidence etc.

One of the reasons i have found is not having sufficient trading capital and trying to do miracles on a shoe string. Hi, Larry Williams turned 10K into some serious dough, why not me? I do not know why not me? After doining everything imaginable trick under the sun i happen to settle into following risk and trading style and i am not changing it.

This post will be heartbreaking/discouraging to majority of the traders. It's not my intention. If you are trading full time and happy with whatever account size you have and making a living- this post should actually make you more proud of yourself and your trading career. Otheriwse get REAL.

It's immaterial whether trading capital used in my business model reflects my actual account size. ONLY thing it shows as to how i look at leverage, risk, return, position size, scaling in and out etc How i put it together to get an edge. My edge is not shorting failed A ups and going longs on failed A downs. It's just one major component.

I am also not implying that day trading is for millionaires. Having millions will not make one successful in trading. It just makes it easier to deal with random nature of intraday moves when a trader has DRY POWDER on hand availabe all the time. I do not buy into this notion that wherever i buy, i happen to be right everytime and rest of the world comes rushing in bidding price up and making my trade a successful one. I believe that i tend to be right in general area to initiate a trade but notion of buying CL at 97 with a 15 ticks stop loss with a target of 98.40 is no longer appealing to me.

This is just one trader perspective. A trader who has done more than 20,000 trades ( SIM and LIVE) and it suits him. What if someone does not have $1 million to trade? My recommendation will be to use this example to size your trades per your account size, understand leverage, randomness of market etc

I see traders failing TST dozen of times and then passing with results like # of contracts traded for the day= 30
Gains for the day= $400 etc. They have no chance since they do not understand basics of risk, leverage etc.Trading 15 cars per position with 150K etc account is not for most traders. I have traded 50 cars per position, 100 cars per position and everything in between. Following is just my personal way of getting an edge.


I will continue in the next post.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #228 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

NOTE: Read Disclaimer first from previous post.

Trading Capital= $1,000,000
Intraday leverage provided by brokerage firm based of account equity= Not interested.
Contracts per position= 4 cars
Stop loss= 150 ticks per car. $1500 per car. $6000 on 4 cars. 0.6% of trading capital
Daily target = 60 ticks on full 4 cars. $600 per car or $2400 on 4 cars for CL as an example. 0.24% for the day on trading capital.
Stop trading daily Limit= $20,000. 2% of trading capital.


Weekly Target= 3 successful trading days out of 5 trading days= $2400x3= $7200. 0.72 of trading capital on weekly basis. 2 trading days out of 5 will be scratches. Trading way under capacity in terms of contracts a trader can trade is the KEY to this and many other performnace metrics.

Monthly Target= $7200x4= $28,800. 2.88% return on capital

Yearly Target= 11 months out of 12 months in a year. One month for vacation, holidays= $28,800 x11= $316,800. 31.68% return on capital


# of successful trading days in a month= 12 days.
# of scratches trading days in a month= 8 days.
# of successful trading days in a year ( 11 months)= 12x11= 132 days.
# of scratches trading days in a year ( 11 months)= 8x11= 88 days.

NOTES: 1) Number of trades in a day= 8.
Each trade represents a decision- buy or sell. Thus i try not to make more than 8 decisions a day. This does not include scaling in/out etc.

2) 20% of 132 successful trading days ( about 27 trading days) provide opporyunity to trade with size. If i miss those days, i am happy with 4 cars per position. Using size is highly discretionary. It can be 20 cars, 100 cars etc. However, with that kind of size i am not holding position the way i hold a 4 lot position for 40 minutes etc. I want to be out in 10-15 minutes or at least take majority of it off.

3) I get asked a lot about logic of risking $6k to make $2400? Short answer is it's a disaster stop loss and if situation calls for i am not hesistant to get out of position way before stop loss and switch from being long to short and vice versa. I feel more comfortable giving trades space and time , so that i can observe objectively vs worrying about stop loss. Also, i am trading multiple instruements. In that situation, i do no want to sit around blinking my eyes as to when my stop loss is getting hit. I want to focus on the next instruement and set up.

4) Most of the trading is done by 11 am eastern time. Depending upon how day went by 11 am, i decide on position size for rest of the day or decide if i want to trade at all.


Well, here you have it. This may not help my friends who i have talked over last 6 months about set ups etc who are still struggling with execution/confidence issues. I can see they being disappointed that i waited so long to show them what i consider to be an edge on top of ACD etc. and it's not what they expected. Where they will get $1million to trade etc?

As i said in tthe disclaimer, having a $1 million is not the point. Having expectations based off your account size and being realistic is the goal of this post. Just as having a $1million trading account is an extreme for majority of traders, trying to live off $50K trading account with 70% win ratio, tracking MFE etc. all day maybe another extreme for most of the traders. I do not even want to imagine what rate of return one may need on 50K account to earn enough to earn a living. There are always EXCEPTIONS but they do not need mine or anybody else help.


I also have talked with a couple of traders who just laughed off at my risk, leverage etc and said that a trader who knows what he is doing can do it with 10k etc. Maybe or maybe not. I do not live in fantasy land , i know my trading style, i know my limitations and this suits me. I have tried to get 50% ,70%etc. annual returns , it will work for a month, maybe for 4 months and then back to zero.
Should i go by my personal record of 20,000 trades or go by what Larry Willims did many years ago? I will make a trade based off my own records not what Larry Williams did , can do or is doing.

Now if i ever start a prop firm you can use this post as capital you need to trade at my firm.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #229 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

I can see CACFUTURE laughing at working 11 months out of 12 months in a year. My understanding is French likes to take 3-4 months out of a year for vacation.

You can adjust 11 months accordingly

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #230 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

DISCLAIMER: I am neither endorsing or making fun of following video/trader. I am always looking into as what other traders are doing. Trading universe is bigger than ACD. One has to constantly learn, evolve and grow. The outfit is professional and very transparent in their trades. I have to give them props. Sang Lucci produces some of the most fun and raw trading videos around. Full of education. But do not get fooled. You can watch these for years and will not be even close to trading weekly options. There is a whole lot of stuff which goes on in weekly options.

In the spirit of learning, i recently took their options trading course. At minmium, course taught me to stay away from day trading weekly options at all cost. I am not wired to trade weekly options. These guys are high risk/high reward type of traders. Making 70K, loosing 100k and so on.

His claim to fame is $600,000 winning trade many years ago. He apparently started with something like 10 K. Even i could not help and control my curiosity and watch their trades from time to time. I can feel it, sense it, that i will be careful for many, many months, study, prepare for this new beast and venture into day trading weekly options and have my ass kicked. It's OK as long as a trader knows before hand what's going to happen to him when he ventures into new territory outside his area of expertise.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #231 (permalink)
 CACFUTURE 
Paris + FRANCE
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT/TT
Trading: 6E, 6B, CL
 
Posts: 9 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 232 given, 52 received


mfbreakout View Post
I can see CACFUTURE laughing at working 11 months out of 12 months in a year. My understanding is French likes to take 3-4 months out of a year for vacation.

You can adjust 11 months accordingly


and we pretend to work for the remaining 11 months
CACFUTURE

The following user says Thank You to CACFUTURE for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #232 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Pink Flyod - these boys surely take their time to set the song up. Very similar to trading set ups in most cases. Added to longs in TF.


Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-18_1026_cl_tf.png
Views:	62
Size:	206.0 KB
ID:	153516  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #233 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Why only longs on my mind and why i added to longs after taking some cars off?

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-18_1053_nyse.png
Views:	83
Size:	245.6 KB
ID:	153517  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #234 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

" Hedge funds extended the longest bearish streak for soybeans in eight years as improving crop conditions bolster prospects for a record harvest in the U.S., the world’s largest grower.

Money managers have been betting on declines for five straight weeks, the most since October 2006. The U.S. on Aug. 12 raised its outlook for domestic production that was already forecast at an all-time high. The bumper harvest will swell global inventories to the biggest ever."


Everytime ZS bounces 1-2%- i been shorting it . Basically as candle counting traders get lured in- rug gets pulled. Market need 2 sided participation to have a game. Very similar to what's been happening in CL.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #235 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

What's the easiest thing to do in day trading?

Pick direction of a potential move.

What's the most difficult thing to do in day trading?

Execution with proper risk management. I was short CL from 97.02 10 days ago , looking for 95 and break down of 95 etc. However, Ukraine situation threw in a temporary monkey ranch and CL spiked to 98.40 area before heading back down over next 7-10 days with usual SONG and DANCE in between.

Flexible and Nimble discretionary traders have an edge over any auto or algo program out there which are programmed based off historical patterns or anything else under the sun.
One just have to understand SONG and DANCE which goes on in between on the way to wherever macro headwinds are pushing an instruement.

I will take 25-40 ticks on longs from 93.50 while trading box is formed for 11.30 to 1 pm time frame and i will short just as so called hockey stick movement shows up- if it does at all. As usual my main trading for the day is over. Trading after hitting daily goal is on small position size to pay for comission of morning trades or just something to do. Staying long in TF after taking some off.

RISK MANAGEMENT: Most misused concept in trading and a major cause of broken dreams. I listened to around 16 trading experts last saturday. This telethon was arranged to raise funds for an educator/trader. Good to see trading community acting as a community. Every presenter had the same approach and message regarding stop loss. Keep it tight. No wonder, surprises never stops for majority of traders.

Tight stops ONLY make sense in counter trend trading. But why would anyone trade counter trend to begin with?

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #236 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Got a message from a trader " long 93.49, stop loss 93.43 and got stopped out when CL reversed from 93.80 (lol)"

I am not sure what he is laughing about? He did not short this morning as CL was too close to his various support levels and waited all day to finally initiate a long. One can not get more disciplined than that. However, discipline, patiently waiting for A+ set up etc all went out of the window with that magic stop loss. If same situation get repeated a dozen times ( which is very common) he will be looking into webster dictionary as to what being patient really means. In other words confidence get shaken.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-18_1213_box.png
Views:	70
Size:	190.1 KB
ID:	153524  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #237 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


mfbreakout View Post
I will take 25-40 ticks on longs from 93.50 while trading box is formed for 11.30 to 1 pm time frame

Tight stops ONLY make sense in counter trend trading. But why would anyone trade counter trend to begin with?

We've been going down all morning and for the last several days friday being the exception....so are your longs mentioned here trend trades? And if so on what time frame.

I should add, I'm not trying to be cheeky here, just curious why longs in light of the argument against counter trend trades....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following user says Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #238 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


PandaWarrior View Post
We've been going down all morning and for the last several days friday being the exception....so are your longs mentioned here trend trades? And if so on what time frame.


" Trading after hitting daily goal is on small position size to pay for comission of morning trades or just something to do. "

Based off experience probability of a pendulum going back and forth during lunch doldrums is very high. So trade is based off ATR, time of the day etc.

The trade is of no consequence. I traded this tendency of CL , a.k.a box trading during lunch hour time for a long time and just like to get paid for that screen time. Lot of traders also called this probing a market. One has to be aware that CL can keep dropping till enough shorts are lured in to make it worthwhile to make a reversal of some kind. Since, one never knows what may happen after ATR has been hit and when there are NO CLEAR SIGNS of buyers or Sellers- it's not a game of tight stop loss or in other words a game most traders should not engage in if a drawdown of 30-50 ticks will damage their confidence and have no ability to manage a trade by having plenty of DRY POWDER on hand.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #239 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

progress did not come in one full swing. Started with 10-15 ticks targets and always on the wrong side. With that kind of target and stop loss there is no other way but to be on the wrong side all day long.

Then 30 ticks all day long. Improvement but tight stop loss kept the FEAR in trading.

60-100 ticks with direction and wide stop loss and next level up.

Nothing goes to waste if one keeps records. 30 ticks set ups are still LIVE and KICKING but with a new twist. The new twist is to understand randomness of price movement during certain times and in certain range.

4 decisions on the day.

1) Short CL.
2) Long CL.
3) Long TF.
4) Short GC. Scratch.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-18_1329_edge.png
Views:	61
Size:	231.0 KB
ID:	153538  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #240 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Binary options games in play Out flat 93.85.

Accept randomess of price movement under certain conditions and try not to judge success of a trade without understanding randomness of price movement.

We all agree that each single trader has no impact on price movement. What's the point of judging ones success based off stop loss ?


In trading i like following defination of discipline;

Trading way under your buying power majority of the time is a true testament of ones discipline. I am tempted every day and i fight it every day. I have .24 daily return, 0.72 weekly return and 2.88% monthly return written every where in my office.
When, where and how those special trading days will show up when it's time to max it, we never know. We just speculate and trade accordingly.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #241 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

No chance of one time framing. Just plain rotation. I wish market internals numbers had come down a bit but they are staying strong and it's a sign of slow rotation. Too slow even for my taste.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-18_1439_misaligned.png
Views:	65
Size:	232.6 KB
ID:	153553  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #242 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


mfbreakout View Post
I have .24 daily return, 0.72 weekly return and 2.88% monthly return written every where in my office.
When, where and how those special trading days will show up when it's time to max it, we never know. We just speculate and trade accordingly.

that reminds me of the mercenary trader's oceans eleven principal.

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

\_(ツ)_/

(╯□)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to madLyfe for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #243 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


madLyfe View Post
that reminds me of the mercenary trader's oceans eleven principal.


I am not aware of mercenary trader or their ocean eleven principle. What is it?

Thx.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #244 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


mfbreakout View Post
I am not aware of mercenary trader or their ocean eleven principle. What is it?

Thx.

really good read. cant remember where i got it? panda perhaps.

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

\_(ツ)_/

(╯□)╯︵ ┻━┻
Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-mercenary-trader-05-oceans-eleven.pdf  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to madLyfe for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #245 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


madLyfe View Post
really good read. cant remember where i got it? panda perhaps.

Very nice . Thanks. I just get leary when i see something like following about a method

" robot-proof, rust-proof, and banker -proof".

Otherwise very good write up and quite deep in it's implications.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #246 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Lot of traders i interact from time to time are having a hrad time with my wide stop loss trading and risk management strategy. I have always said if one is happy and satisfied with their current strategy- keep on doining it. I am just sharing my journey starting from being a 10 ticks profit type of trader to my current risk management strategy. Each one of the traders whom i know and who are at a level where i want to be- have a very similar strategy.

Following post from Dr. Steenbarger indirectly makes a point ( at least the way i read it).

TraderFeed: What Proportion of Daytraders Actually Makes Money?

" I strongly recommend reading the research study of speculator skill from Barber, Lee, Liu, and Odean. They studied the returns of daytraders over a 15-year period, the largest sample I am aware of in such a study. Their study is also unique in that it looks at the ability of traders to make money in a second year after having made money in the first.

The authors conclude that "there is clear performance persistence." The very top traders who make money net of fees tend to continue to make money going forward. The traders who lose money tend to continue losing money.

Here is the most important conclusion, however:

"In the average year, 360,000 individuals engage in day trading. While about 13% earn profits net of fees in the typical year, the results of our analysis suggest that less than 1% of day traders (less than 1,000 out of 360,000) are able to outperform consistently." (p. 15).

In other words, 87% of day traders in a given year lose money after fees are taken into account. About .28%--one in 360--is able to make money after fees year over year.

To be sure, that small group of very successful day traders earns a significant return. After expenses, they average +28 bps per day. Compare that to the 350,000 out of 360,000 daytraders who average a daily loss of 5.7 bps per day after expenses.

The authors conclude that day trading skill genuinely exists. They also conclude that it is very, very rare. "

I happen to believe that i do not want to give my self pass/fail grade based off my ability to pick exact turning points of an intraday move based off my ability to pick them within 10-20 ticks stop loss.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 8 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #247 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

CC got away.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-19_1051_ccfinal.png
Views:	62
Size:	146.5 KB
ID:	153625  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #248 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

If 100+ ticks desired on a trade, one has to learn to ignore 20-30 ticks bounces in between and HOLD. No longs yet. There is never ever a good counter trend set up, so take your time if thinking about longs. It took 2 hours to get paid and if not careful 20-40 ticks of that can disappear in a NY minutes if using that magic stop loss.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-19_1023_short.png
Views:	61
Size:	251.2 KB
ID:	153627  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #249 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


mfbreakout View Post
If 100+ ticks desired on a trade, one has to learn to ignore 20-30 ticks bounces in between and HOLD. No longs yet. There is never ever a good counter trend set up, so take your time if thinking about longs. It took 2 hours to get paid and if not careful 20-40 ticks of that can disappear in a NY minutes if using that magic stop loss.

shouldnt the B and D provide enough room for a stop?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

\_(ツ)_/

(╯□)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to madLyfe for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #250 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


madLyfe View Post
shouldnt the B and D provide enough room for a stop?


If your are talking about stop loss based of 45 minutes OR above ORH in case of A down yes, but those are just starting points. I used to use them strictily to the tick but got nicked couple of times, so i expanded the stop loss based off ATR.

With 45 minutes OR- stop loss is mostly 50-80 ticks wide to begin with.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #251 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Anyone trading QQQQ and thinkinking off shorting, be careful, IF AAPL clears 100 area- it can catch fire to the upside.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #252 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


mfbreakout View Post
Anyone trading QQQQ and thinkinking off shorting, be careful, IF AAPL clears 100 area- it can catch fire to the upside.

AAPL, GOOG etc are strong and thus had to be careful with shorts when some of them are at inflection point.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-19_1128_qqq.png
Views:	48
Size:	109.8 KB
ID:	153637   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-19_1130_TF.png
Views:	54
Size:	128.9 KB
ID:	153638   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-19_1131_aapl.png
Views:	44
Size:	113.4 KB
ID:	153639  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #253 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Yesterday CL after consolidating around 93.42 went back upto 94 area. Today, remians to be seen what she does.

Was that because of support? One can say 93.42 to 93.21 ( as of 12.14 pm eastern time) is only 21 ticks difference-
I am in that camp. What if CL goes to 93, 92.70 etc.?

I have no idea. All i know i do not want to initiate a new short unless some REAL selling pressure comes in. One may say- i can not handle this kind of uncertainity etc. That will be right approach. But to go long with some magic stop loss- has no chance. That's why magic stop loss traders should sit on sidelines or use whatever confirmation tools one has to see if longs make sense.

Even with tools for a long trade to work for 40-80 ticks without a LONG hold time has no chance. At best these tools with some heavy dose of luck can only do what tools do in wrong hands. They give -ve SURPRISES. What happened to the luck part of the equation? Oh, it's there. It saved you from getting ones tits chopped off while focusing on ticks. I will say that' s being pretty lucky.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #254 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

" All i know i do not want to initiate a new short unless some REAL selling pressure comes in".

Reshort. What happened? I changed my mind. It's not auto trading that i turn on computer and listen to music after taking a position with feet up on the desk.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-19_1346_opc.png
Views:	67
Size:	193.8 KB
ID:	153653  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #255 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Let's say a swing trader was short yesterday from 94.60 with a target of 92 or whatever. What did he had to endure?

He had to endure CL getting down to 93.42 and getting back to 94.30 area during Globex session- he basically basically got nothing. Today, CL marched again from 94.30 to 92.66. What did day traders do? They cleaned up from both long and short side. So there are benefits to starting out as a 30 ticks type of trader, understand what goes on on an intra day basis and at some point develop a sense of what some other time frame tradeers are doing/thinking.

It's kind like mixing different styles like Wyclef Jean mixing with Bee Gees.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #256 (permalink)
 jthom 
Sydney / Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: AMP
Trading: Oil
 
Posts: 118 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 128 given, 105 received


mfbreakout View Post
" All i know i do not want to initiate a new short unless some REAL selling pressure comes in".

Reshort. What happened? I changed my mind. It's not auto trading that i turn on computer and listen to music after taking a position with feet up on the desk.

Hey mfbreakout

Long time follower of your methods. I have recently adopted ACD.
Just a query. I noticed your OR is 60 mins?
From yesterdays session I used a 45 min OR from 8:30am EST and the OR low was 93.96. I somewhat interpreted an A down thereabouts 93.84 and held for 40 ticks.
How does one distinguish the most 'comfortable' OR period ? You say you use a wider OR on oil report days.
I understand that one size does not fit all.

Thanks

James

The following user says Thank You to jthom for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #257 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


jthom View Post
Hey mfbreakout

Long time follower of your methods. I have recently adopted ACD.
Just a query. I noticed your OR is 60 mins?
From yesterdays session I used a 45 min OR from 8:30am EST and the OR low was 93.96. I somewhat interpreted an A down thereabouts 93.84 and held for 40 ticks.
How does one distinguish the most 'comfortable' OR period ? You say you use a wider OR on oil report days.
I understand that one size does not fit all.

Thanks

James


Hi James,

Comfortable OR period?

What is the biggest challenge of traders who want to trade 50,100,200 contracts per position intra day?
Do they come in every day worrying about picking some magic single entry point which is so PRECISE that they can put on 200 contracts in one shot , put on some magic stop loss and sit back?

See attached chart . My premise is that wide OR helps to be on the right side vs narrow OR like 5 minutes etc. But there are traders who BANG out with narow OR all day long also. It depends on each trader personality. I hate anything related to speed when it comes to trading and thus use wide OR.

Wednesday OR: It is from 8.30 am to 10.45 eastern time. Why? The idea behind OR is that relevant news which can impact CL needs to be out and then see what intentions of majority of traders are and trade accordingly.

Let's see at 10.45 am ORH turns out to be 93. 80 and ORL 92.70 ( i am just guessing for this example).
Price fails to go above 93.80 with any conviction, it can go to 93.90, 94 but never stays there and keep coming back, i am shorting it. I do not need anything else to decide what to do once OR is formed.

This is ACD at it's very basic. There are many other factors which need to be incorported into ones trading.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-20_0555_BAM.png
Views:	75
Size:	310.3 KB
ID:	153702  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #258 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Nat gas keeps doing this to me again and again. Obviously i need to develop even more patience then i have to trade NG.

Why did not i go long as price was going above ORH? Is not that ACD is about? Yes and No. Don't we hate it when there is a Yes and right after that a No?

Yes, if instruement one is trading is in a bullish trend. No, in case of bearish or just rotation. If i was long off ORL, i may have added to long to ride the luring traders in process. But i was not long off ORL. It helps to keep " LURING TRADERS IN" process to facilitate big traders trades "FRONT and CENTER" rather than just focusing on ticks and fancy as being a PRICE ACTION trader.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-20_0636_ung.png
Views:	59
Size:	195.7 KB
ID:	153703  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #259 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


jthom View Post
Hey mfbreakout

Long time follower of your methods. I have recently adopted ACD.
Just a query. I noticed your OR is 60 mins?
From yesterdays session I used a 45 min OR from 8:30am EST and the OR low was 93.96. I somewhat interpreted an A down thereabouts 93.84 and held for 40 ticks.
How does one distinguish the most 'comfortable' OR period ? You say you use a wider OR on oil report days.
I understand that one size does not fit all.

Thanks

James

I assume you may be a fan of cricket ( One never knows. I was talking with a trader from Italy and he was not interested in soccer at all. Even sure bets give surprises). Wide OR helps to deal with fast balls. I plan to watch cricket all day during trading. It's been a while since i watched cricket.




Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #260 (permalink)
 jthom 
Sydney / Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: AMP
Trading: Oil
 
Posts: 118 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 128 given, 105 received


mfbreakout View Post
I assume you may be a fan of cricket ( One never knows. I was talking with a trader from Italy and he was not interested in soccer at all. Even sure bets give surprises). Wide OR helps to deal with fast balls. I plan to watch cricket all day during trading. It's been a while since i watched cricket.
[


Thanks for the insight.

Yes cricket in Australia is good. Cricket in summertime is great. Cricket with BEER in summertime is AWESOME. hehe

The following 2 users say Thank You to jthom for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #261 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Anyone long at 93.58? If there is one, sold.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-20_1106_doe.png
Views:	60
Size:	151.4 KB
ID:	153742  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #262 (permalink)
 jthom 
Sydney / Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: AMP
Trading: Oil
 
Posts: 118 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 128 given, 105 received


mfbreakout View Post
Anyone long at 93.58? If there is one, sold.

Nice. Too much garbage between ORH and ORL. Will wait for more direction.

The following user says Thank You to jthom for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #263 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Anyone short at 1152? Bought it. Slow tarin with mixed signals, so book it. I guess everyone is waiting for Yellen.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-20_1114_TF.png
Views:	45
Size:	120.4 KB
ID:	153746  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #264 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


jthom View Post
Nice. Too much garbage between ORH and ORL. Will wait for more direction.

If by garbage you mean price is stuck within OR, you are correct. How about short on failed A up? That's as much confirmation as one will get. Next question is about size of trade? Start small and add as train picks up speed.
When and how that will happen, we do not know. That's why one should trade multiple instruements , watch cricket, listen to music etc.


" Will wait for more direction."

You must be thinking about where to put stop loss. Otherwise direction is pretty clear. ONLY thing we do not know how much the move will be. Are they buying or selling?

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #265 (permalink)
 tflanner 
Chicago, IL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja
Broker: Ninja
Trading: ES, Ym, NQ, VTI, SPY, VXUS
 
Posts: 166 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 797 given, 315 received


mfbreakout View Post
Anyone short at 1152? Bought it. Slow tarin with mixed signals, so book it. I guess everyone is waiting for Yellen.

Just started trading TF this week. No shorts for me today in TF, with the strength in the YM and ES. Amazing the intraday divergences between TF and the rest of the indices of late.

Also, here is a podcast from Michael Covel interviewing Leo Melamed. Leo invented finanical futures at the CME. Not a bad history lesson.....hopefully the link works.


https://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/9/c/f/9cf4e4b5951ec025/265.mp3?c_id=7497857&expiration=1408552748&hwt=cea9225e68d75fb656145d78f632bf37

The Market is Smarter than You Are
The following 3 users say Thank You to tflanner for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #266 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Finally got NG. Lightened up in CL and loaded up in NG. Long , Long hold time. Took some off in NG. NG down 2% on the day, it's enough. No longs in either.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-20_1209.png
Views:	56
Size:	200.3 KB
ID:	153774  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #267 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Pick right instruement to load up.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-20_1232_finviz.png
Views:	58
Size:	185.1 KB
ID:	153776  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #268 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Ready to set personal record for hold time. took some off and added to short into bounce around 1043 for Soyabeans. All these instruements just get stuck in some area and then BOOM as it just did in Soybeans and party got busy.

All we have to do go to Finviz , pick up weakest dog, short it and hold. This way we never wrong with direction. The move may just not come at a time we want as NG has done to me many, many times.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-20_1001_zs.png
Views:	45
Size:	219.8 KB
ID:	153777  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #269 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

If it took 4 hours to get paid some, should one be in a rush to get out completely?

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-20_1251_short.png
Views:	48
Size:	171.7 KB
ID:	153778  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #270 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

CL been a dud. I have been shorting every time it gets around 93.40, will cover some around 93.12 and instead of going down , it will come back up. Still holding shorts but reduced size. Overall a dud.


TF been a champ and it can go all the way. GC short- once again turned out to be a scalp. Both trades after Fed. minutes at 2 pm eastern time.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-20_1453_fed.png
Views:	37
Size:	231.8 KB
ID:	153795  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #271 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


mfbreakout View Post
CL been a dud. I have been shorting every time it gets around 93.40, will cover some around 93.12 and instead of going down , it will come back up. Still holding shorts but reduced size. Overall a dud.


TF been a champ and it can go all the way. GC short- once again turned out to be a scalp. Both trades after Fed. minutes at 2 pm eastern time.

Off some ahed of first test of meat of the market.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-20_1529_diverged.png
Views:	41
Size:	160.8 KB
ID:	153797  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #272 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


mfbreakout View Post
Off some ahed of first test of meat of the market.


Out flat why?

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-20_1544_nyse.png
Views:	54
Size:	221.7 KB
ID:	153798  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #273 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

GC short. Asian traders extended the down move which started after fed news 2 pm eastern time yesterday. Now, lets see what Euro traders do.
Had to put in Night Shift.



Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-21_0248gc.png
Views:	47
Size:	138.6 KB
ID:	153823  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #274 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Come on CACFUTURE and fellow traders from Europe- blow this balance away. I am counting on you.


" De' molir ce mur Mr. Gorbochev".

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-21_0305_balance.png
Views:	58
Size:	122.2 KB
ID:	153824  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #275 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

" CL been a dud. I have been shorting every time it gets around 93.40, will cover some around 93.12 and instead of going down , it will come back up. Still holding shorts but reduced size."


Held shorts all day yesterday from 93.40 area, not sure why CL did not break 92 yesterday, cover some 93.04. No longs for me, just shorts. Time to catch some sleep.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #276 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


mfbreakout View Post
" CL been a dud. I have been shorting every time it gets around 93.40, will cover some around 93.12 and instead of going down , it will come back up. Still holding shorts but reduced size."


Held shorts all day yesterday from 93.40 area, not sure why CL did not break 92 yesterday, cover some 93.04. No longs for me, just shorts. Time to catch some sleep.


I guess they needed enough longs to facilitate their shorts. Staying short after covering some.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-21_0716_cl_song_and_dance.png
Views:	53
Size:	146.7 KB
ID:	153832  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #277 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

I just can not figure out why lot of instruements just stay at one area for hours and then BOOM. It definetly pays to stay with the trend.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-21_0713_song_and_dance.png
Views:	55
Size:	85.3 KB
ID:	153838  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #278 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Business plan calls for 3 successful trading days and 2 scratches. Looks like CL will make this a scratch day after gains from TF, GC on the day. Trying to manage the CL trade at this point and waiting for reversion to the mean.
A pullback off 40-60 ticks will make it whole and then some. How about if CL keeps running , then it will be a scratch day. Thus with worst case scenario with CL - that from average short price of 93.80, CL runs another 150 ticks and i do not do any thing in between like scaling in/out- day will be a scratch.

That's the ONLY way to trade that with a worst case scenario- a scratch day. That's the benefit of trading way under capacity and keeping lot of Powder dry because we all get surprises here and there. Without SURPRISES trading will not be FUN.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-21_1204__down_under.png
Views:	56
Size:	201.7 KB
ID:	153880  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #279 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

GC and TF .

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-21_1259_tf_gc.png
Views:	57
Size:	205.4 KB
ID:	153882  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #280 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


mfbreakout View Post
Business plan calls for 3 successful trading days and 2 scratches. Looks like CL will make this a scratch day after gains from TF, GC on the day. Trying to manage the CL trade at this point and waiting for reversion to the mean.
A pullback off 40-60 ticks will make it whole and then some. How about if CL keeps running , then it will be a scratch day. Thus with worst case scenario with CL - that from average short price of 93.80, CL runs another 150 ticks and i do not do any thing in between like scaling in/out- day will be a scratch.

That's the ONLY way to trade that with a worst case scenario- a scratch day. That's the benefit of trading way under capacity and keeping lot of Powder dry.


4th day out of 5 trading days in a week recovered from being a scratch day to being positive day with trades in GC and TF.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-21_1432_trade_management.png
Views:	54
Size:	203.0 KB
ID:	153884  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #281 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

" WTI Oil Climbs as Economic Data Signals U.S. Growth"

By Mark Shenk Aug 21, 2014 3:24 PM ET Bloomberg.


Technical day trders like me SMILE at headlines like above. Well piece had at least 1 piece of good information.

" The volume of all futures traded was 3.5 percent below the 100-day average at 2:49 p.m."

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #282 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


mfbreakout View Post
Business plan calls for 3 successful trading days and 2 scratches. Looks like CL will make this a scratch day after gains from TF, GC on the day. Trying to manage the CL trade at this point and waiting for reversion to the mean.
A pullback off 40-60 ticks will make it whole and then some. How about if CL keeps running , then it will be a scratch day. Thus with worst case scenario with CL - that from average short price of 93.80, CL runs another 150 ticks and i do not do any thing in between like scaling in/out- day will be a scratch.

That's the ONLY way to trade that with a worst case scenario- a scratch day. That's the benefit of trading way under capacity and keeping lot of Powder dry because we all get surprises here and there. Without SURPRISES trading will not be FUN.

Added to short as CL bouced into 94.18 area after touching 93.70 area. Just have to hold it for 17 hours of SONG and DANCE and CL back to 93.52. Cover some. Never judge your trading by a single trade, or even a series of trades.
Judge it over a period of time. Key is to start everyday FRESH. To find a balance between which part of trading experience to keep, take -ve feelings out of -ve trades and extract +ve out of them and start FRESH is NAME OF THE GAME.

Name of the Game? Hum-- reminds me of ABBA. Right song today for me to get +ve juices flowing.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #283 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


mfbreakout View Post
" WTI Oil Climbs as Economic Data Signals U.S. Growth"

By Mark Shenk Aug 21, 2014 3:24 PM ET Bloomberg.


Technical day trders like me SMILE at headlines like above. Well piece had at least 1 piece of good information.

" The volume of all futures traded was 3.5 percent below the 100-day average at 2:49 p.m."


Should we call Mr. Shenk to ask where are the buyers buying CL on US economic Growth? To be fair he is a reporter and reports what he hears from his sources. However, sellers also seems exhausted after 2 weeks of party.
It looks like rotation/balancing process underway. Need new catalyst for next $5 down move plus nothing goes down in a straight line.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #284 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Final day of trading for the week. trying to keep it +ve for 5 days running. ONLY shorts in CL. On small position size comapred to yesterday. I was feeling little bit on the TILT side, so cut down size.

Trading way below ones limit and still getting daily goal is a good feeling.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-22_0914_short.png
Views:	74
Size:	194.9 KB
ID:	153954   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-22_1035_cl_reshort.png
Views:	57
Size:	192.2 KB
ID:	153955  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #285 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Earlier this morning a fellow futures.io (formerly BMT) member brought to my attention a very VALID and GOOD point. Thanks, to Isla i became aware that traders may be looking at my journal/post the way not intended by me. Thus, i have added a disclaimer at end of each of my post.

" mfbreakout, I may not have as much experience posting on this forum, but I generally try to refrain from presenting my own opinion/beliefs as facts. There are other ways to trade apart from yours (which, to be honest, doesn't make sense to me). So considering what Zolt was actually asking about, there is no need to discuss your limited personal experience as it has no relevance. Anyone can do the numbers for return and capital required. "


" You mentioned something about small stops and dreamers. See, we have completely different experience. While I've never really looked into ACD and know nothing about Mark Fisher or his successful students, I was a part of a firm with a couple of hundred guys who were trading for ticks for living. When you said it didn't make sense to you how people make six figures while paying 200k in commissions it just made me smile.

All I meant is that there is a difference between an opinion and a fact and the way they should be presented (especially if you consider that your comment may actually affect someone's life).

Thanks for your reply"

Following is my reply to him

" I am sorry if i implied that my style is special. Confident about my style? Yes, very confident and may be that gave the impression. I know couple of traders at SMB capital who trade stocks , with tight stop loss and look for ticks all day long and thats the only way they can trade.

I did not mean to imply that my personal experience reflects the entire trading industry. What i am trying to say that in my personal experience , and based off my interaction of at least 30 traders who followed my first journal, they finally are trading with confidence in some part of what they gathered from my journal. They try to give 100% credit, i will take 5% of that. That's all.

My main point is if one is not successful based off whatever they have tried, time to change. If i was working at SMB capital and got booted out ( which i would have been in a NY minute) becuase that style does not suit me, should i have just packed bags and said man i can not make it based off what SMB does? No, i said let's find and use what suits me and that's what i try to share.

NOTE: On a separate note, i am a big fan of SMB capital. It's good to know that Steve Spencer - partner of SMB capital- and a superb day trader can not hold a candle when it comes to my universe just like i can not in his universe.'



Note: Full Qand A between Isla and me as at " Introduce yourself here" thread. I did not wanted to post entire post by isla and me.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 8 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #286 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Two horizontal lines- it ONLY took 4 yearrs to get around them. Why they will not make sense to many ( depsite my honest efforts) is not SURPRISING.

There is more to it than just 2 horizontal lines. If one wants to be cute about them by placinga stop loss around them- be my guest. Taking the book literally ( Fisher book) without getting a sense as to what author is saying, is a NO , NO.

Does anyone think that every trader at Fish firm uses ACD the same way? If so, their P&L should be same. My guess is they are not.

AAPL and TF? What the hell is this? It's just me. Nothing else. I do not have 10 years of historical relationship between AAPL, TF and waht happens on Friday in August on and on. I probably would have looked at that kind of data if i was just trading TF based off AAPL. There are some other ways in addition to AAPL, for example, market internals.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-22_0945_ny_open.png
Views:	65
Size:	184.8 KB
ID:	153959   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-22_1235_aapl.png
Views:	57
Size:	117.3 KB
ID:	153960   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-22_1237_TF_long.png
Views:	54
Size:	116.4 KB
ID:	153961  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #287 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Hi Nariman,

After i noticed you are from Kazakhstain, i did some serach on it and found some common things between us based off my heritage. Now, i know quite a bit about Kazakhstain. Internet is just amazing.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #288 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

I have been asked many , many times to start a trading room. My answer always has been and still is that i do not see any value in it.

Some like minded traders have started or have in the past started getting together via various platforms available on the internet independent of me. They asked me to stop by from time to time.

Now this makes sense to me. I do stop by at the end of trading day here and there to answer any questions , exchange ideas etc.

These groups are small ( 3-4 traders) and are not dependent upon me to trade. They have been following my journal for some time and use whatever makes sense to them.

In summary, start your own group - keep it small- and if needed i will be more than happy to stop by after trading session from time to time. I have been told that some of the stuff got very clear to them once they had opportunity to ask questions.

Thanks,



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 7 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #289 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

A/D breakout.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-24_1037_A_D.png
Views:	72
Size:	326.7 KB
ID:	154048  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #290 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

I have been reading analysis from likes of Adam Grimes from the begining of my trading career. They will make whole lot of sense but never helpful in day to day trading as i was struggling. I will give up, go back , give up and so on.

I started enjoying this kind of analysis after i started having some success with day trading. Like everything in life in trading different things line up at their own pace and schedule. Just keep at it.

Previous chart about A/D breakout without following analysis is not complete. Following charts show 6 sectors as a starting point. I try to keep macro analysis simple otherwise it can get out of hand , e.g looking at every sector, their historical patterns and on and on. In the end we are day traders, so need to get too far out.

"Reading sector relative strength
by Adam Grimes | Aug 24, 2014 | Chart of the Day, Relative Strength | 0 Comments
Relative strength is an important trading concept, and there are a lot of ways to define, monitor, and trade these relationships. Looking at the sector relative strength within the US stock market gives a deeper understanding of money flows and psychological support for a bigger rally. One of the keys to stock market rallies is that leadership tends to be persistent, particularly on rally legs. When markets consolidate, as this market arguably has been doing since the beginning of this calendar year, sector rotation is to be expected–it’s normal to see leaders emerge out of the foam and then crash back in failed breakouts. However, when we do catch these leaders, sometimes we can get very nice, long traders: in my published research, we have been overweight Healthcare since 7/27/2012 and underweight Utilities since 1/27/12–substantial wins for what are now long-term trades. Of course, if you are going to do this you have to be willing to let some positions go at a small loss or breakeven, as we may have to do with an overweight on Energy that has lagged a bit since we put it on in May of this year.
I find it useful to look at spreads of indexes against the broad market; this is part of my analytical work done several times each week. Volatility-derived bands (similar to Bollinger bands) around the spreads give some idea of the volatility of the spread, but, remember this is not tied directly to underlying market volatility–be clear that it is the volatility of the spread relationship. I am presenting these nine charts without a lot of commentary, but have summarized my reads with the very scientific “one or two arrows” system. (Two arrows = stronger conviction for a move in that direction.) Also, just like anything else in the market, there is not always a directional edge. Sometimes the best we can say is “dunno”, and I have indicated these sectors with a sideways arrow. (It is also useful to sometimes drill deeper, down into the industry or sub-industry level.)
Anyway, here is a look at the current relative position of the major sectors within the US market. It is interesting to note that a possible inflection in Discretionary, a sector which often drives strong rallies, may be lining up with very bullish condition in broad indexes. This is an example of how quantitative analysis can begin to inform a more subjective read on market direction.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-24_1106_sectors.png
Views:	64
Size:	664.7 KB
ID:	154049   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-24_1109_ixr-ixv.png
Views:	50
Size:	336.3 KB
ID:	154050  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #291 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Low Volatility, long hold time to get paid. It's tough but that's the way it has been. Traders waiting for Volatility to trade may find it difficult to adjust when volatility finally shows up.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-25_1341_lunch.png
Views:	63
Size:	215.2 KB
ID:	154120  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #292 (permalink)
 tflanner 
Chicago, IL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja
Broker: Ninja
Trading: ES, Ym, NQ, VTI, SPY, VXUS
 
Posts: 166 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 797 given, 315 received

I like this.....from Rocky....gotta be able to take the Hits....


The Market is Smarter than You Are
The following 2 users say Thank You to tflanner for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #293 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


tflanner View Post
I like this.....from Rocky....gotta be able to take the Hits....



Hi TFlanner,

In future you can add video directly by using following command

[yt] paste video here by hitting CTRL V command [/yt]


Copy from youtube- hit CTRL C





My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #294 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Yesterday London, U.K was closed and

" Yesterday's Total US Equity Volume (including dark pools) was -35% vs the YTD avg"

Asia session: big yawn from Asian Equities post the newsy $SPX 2,000 bubble day. China led losers -1% overnight - Japan -0.6%, Indonesia -0.6%



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #295 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


mfbreakout View Post
Yesterday London, U.K was closed and

" Yesterday's Total US Equity Volume (including dark pools) was -35% vs the YTD avg"

Asia session: big yawn from Asian Equities post the newsy $SPX 2,000 bubble day. China led losers -1% overnight - Japan -0.6%, Indonesia -0.6%

Volume can be low can be high but internals remain +ve , so longs and longs.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-26_1046_long.png
Views:	56
Size:	137.9 KB
ID:	154193  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #296 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Speed of the move and potential gains? I will take 5-7 points in today's enviornment- it's been like this for months with some exceptions in between.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-26_1104_internals..png
Views:	57
Size:	192.8 KB
ID:	154198  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #297 (permalink)
 greg9 
SLC, UT
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra
Trading: ES CL
 
greg9's Avatar
 
Posts: 108 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 102 given, 67 received


mfbreakout View Post
Speed of the move and potential gains? I will take 5-7 points in today's enviornment- it's been like this for months with some exceptions in between.

@mfbreakout

On that top right market internal why are you subtracting nasdaq advancing issues from nasdaq declining volume? Is there a reason for that?

You have in there $ADVN/Q-$DVOL/Q

Don't you want instead $ADVN/Q-$DECN/Q

The following 2 users say Thank You to greg9 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #298 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received


gsl8r View Post
@mfbreakout

On that top right market internal why are you subtracting nasdaq advancing issues from nasdaq declining volume? Is there a reason for that?

You have in there $ADVN/Q-$DVOL/Q

Don't you want instead $ADVN/Q-$DECN/Q


GSL8R,

Thanks very much. I did not realize that one day when i was playing around with charts- i messed up that input. I was getting the wrong readings on that panel and it was costing me some VERY NICE POTENTIAL GAINS for at least 3 weeks , that was last time i remeber playing around with some inputs.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #299 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Lukily for CL i do not have to look at market internals ( i will be screwed with wrong internals)

1) Long in the morning

2) and then short- Just had to sit through till enough longs were lured in to " PULL THE RUG".

It's easier to make a decision based on kind of pressure CL has been over last 3 weeks that new longs at 94.30 area does not make sense. Do not make it too HARD on yourself by insisting that if one is taking short in that area then the set up has to play out with some stop loss which is comfortable for you. CL could have plulled back from 94.10, 94.50 etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-26_1200_short.png
Views:	59
Size:	215.7 KB
ID:	154212   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-03-12_1439_pulling_the_rug.png
Views:	58
Size:	125.2 KB
ID:	154214  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #300 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,704 received

Longs and stayed long.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-26_1446_nyse_opc.png
Views:	64
Size:	202.9 KB
ID:	154224  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:

Closed Thread

futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > COMMON SENSE


Last Updated on November 27, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing

NEW BlackBird Features + FOREX Support w/Jeremy Tang @ SharkIndicators

Elite only
 

Our 12-year anniversary w/ $$,$$$ prizes (check soon)

June
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts