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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

  #281 (permalink)
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Common Sense

" WTI Oil Climbs as Economic Data Signals U.S. Growth"

By Mark Shenk Aug 21, 2014 3:24 PM ET Bloomberg.


Technical day trders like me SMILE at headlines like above. Well piece had at least 1 piece of good information.

" The volume of all futures traded was 3.5 percent below the 100-day average at 2:49 p.m."

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  #282 (permalink)
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CL


mfbreakout View Post
Business plan calls for 3 successful trading days and 2 scratches. Looks like CL will make this a scratch day after gains from TF, GC on the day. Trying to manage the CL trade at this point and waiting for reversion to the mean.
A pullback off 40-60 ticks will make it whole and then some. How about if CL keeps running , then it will be a scratch day. Thus with worst case scenario with CL - that from average short price of 93.80, CL runs another 150 ticks and i do not do any thing in between like scaling in/out- day will be a scratch.

That's the ONLY way to trade that with a worst case scenario- a scratch day. That's the benefit of trading way under capacity and keeping lot of Powder dry because we all get surprises here and there. Without SURPRISES trading will not be FUN.

Added to short as CL bouced into 94.18 area after touching 93.70 area. Just have to hold it for 17 hours of SONG and DANCE and CL back to 93.52. Cover some. Never judge your trading by a single trade, or even a series of trades.
Judge it over a period of time. Key is to start everyday FRESH. To find a balance between which part of trading experience to keep, take -ve feelings out of -ve trades and extract +ve out of them and start FRESH is NAME OF THE GAME.

Name of the Game? Hum-- reminds me of ABBA. Right song today for me to get +ve juices flowing.



Last edited by mfbreakout; August 22nd, 2014 at 07:28 AM.
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  #283 (permalink)
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trading



mfbreakout View Post
" WTI Oil Climbs as Economic Data Signals U.S. Growth"

By Mark Shenk Aug 21, 2014 3:24 PM ET Bloomberg.


Technical day trders like me SMILE at headlines like above. Well piece had at least 1 piece of good information.

" The volume of all futures traded was 3.5 percent below the 100-day average at 2:49 p.m."


Should we call Mr. Shenk to ask where are the buyers buying CL on US economic Growth? To be fair he is a reporter and reports what he hears from his sources. However, sellers also seems exhausted after 2 weeks of party.
It looks like rotation/balancing process underway. Need new catalyst for next $5 down move plus nothing goes down in a straight line.


Last edited by mfbreakout; August 22nd, 2014 at 11:34 AM.
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  #284 (permalink)
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Trading

Final day of trading for the week. trying to keep it +ve for 5 days running. ONLY shorts in CL. On small position size comapred to yesterday. I was feeling little bit on the TILT side, so cut down size.

Trading way below ones limit and still getting daily goal is a good feeling.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; August 22nd, 2014 at 12:07 PM.
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  #285 (permalink)
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Trading

Earlier this morning a fellow futures.io (formerly BMT) member brought to my attention a very VALID and GOOD point. Thanks, to Isla i became aware that traders may be looking at my journal/post the way not intended by me. Thus, i have added a disclaimer at end of each of my post.

" mfbreakout, I may not have as much experience posting on this forum, but I generally try to refrain from presenting my own opinion/beliefs as facts. There are other ways to trade apart from yours (which, to be honest, doesn't make sense to me). So considering what Zolt was actually asking about, there is no need to discuss your limited personal experience as it has no relevance. Anyone can do the numbers for return and capital required. "


" You mentioned something about small stops and dreamers. See, we have completely different experience. While I've never really looked into ACD and know nothing about Mark Fisher or his successful students, I was a part of a firm with a couple of hundred guys who were trading for ticks for living. When you said it didn't make sense to you how people make six figures while paying 200k in commissions it just made me smile.

All I meant is that there is a difference between an opinion and a fact and the way they should be presented (especially if you consider that your comment may actually affect someone's life).

Thanks for your reply"

Following is my reply to him

" I am sorry if i implied that my style is special. Confident about my style? Yes, very confident and may be that gave the impression. I know couple of traders at SMB capital who trade stocks , with tight stop loss and look for ticks all day long and thats the only way they can trade.

I did not mean to imply that my personal experience reflects the entire trading industry. What i am trying to say that in my personal experience , and based off my interaction of at least 30 traders who followed my first journal, they finally are trading with confidence in some part of what they gathered from my journal. They try to give 100% credit, i will take 5% of that. That's all.

My main point is if one is not successful based off whatever they have tried, time to change. If i was working at SMB capital and got booted out ( which i would have been in a NY minute) becuase that style does not suit me, should i have just packed bags and said man i can not make it based off what SMB does? No, i said let's find and use what suits me and that's what i try to share.

NOTE: On a separate note, i am a big fan of SMB capital. It's good to know that Steve Spencer - partner of SMB capital- and a superb day trader can not hold a candle when it comes to my universe just like i can not in his universe.'



Note: Full Qand A between Isla and me as at " Introduce yourself here" thread. I did not wanted to post entire post by isla and me.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; August 22nd, 2014 at 12:31 PM.
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  #286 (permalink)
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Trading

Two horizontal lines- it ONLY took 4 yearrs to get around them. Why they will not make sense to many ( depsite my honest efforts) is not SURPRISING.

There is more to it than just 2 horizontal lines. If one wants to be cute about them by placinga stop loss around them- be my guest. Taking the book literally ( Fisher book) without getting a sense as to what author is saying, is a NO , NO.

Does anyone think that every trader at Fish firm uses ACD the same way? If so, their P&L should be same. My guess is they are not.

AAPL and TF? What the hell is this? It's just me. Nothing else. I do not have 10 years of historical relationship between AAPL, TF and waht happens on Friday in August on and on. I probably would have looked at that kind of data if i was just trading TF based off AAPL. There are some other ways in addition to AAPL, for example, market internals.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; August 22nd, 2014 at 01:19 PM.
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  #287 (permalink)
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Beautiful

Hi Nariman,

After i noticed you are from Kazakhstain, i did some serach on it and found some common things between us based off my heritage. Now, i know quite a bit about Kazakhstain. Internet is just amazing.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; August 22nd, 2014 at 02:29 PM.
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  #288 (permalink)
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Trading Room

I have been asked many , many times to start a trading room. My answer always has been and still is that i do not see any value in it.

Some like minded traders have started or have in the past started getting together via various platforms available on the internet independent of me. They asked me to stop by from time to time.

Now this makes sense to me. I do stop by at the end of trading day here and there to answer any questions , exchange ideas etc.

These groups are small ( 3-4 traders) and are not dependent upon me to trade. They have been following my journal for some time and use whatever makes sense to them.

In summary, start your own group - keep it small- and if needed i will be more than happy to stop by after trading session from time to time. I have been told that some of the stuff got very clear to them once they had opportunity to ask questions.

Thanks,



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.

Last edited by mfbreakout; August 22nd, 2014 at 05:42 PM.
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  #289 (permalink)
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Breakout

A/D breakout.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #290 (permalink)
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Trading


I have been reading analysis from likes of Adam Grimes from the begining of my trading career. They will make whole lot of sense but never helpful in day to day trading as i was struggling. I will give up, go back , give up and so on.

I started enjoying this kind of analysis after i started having some success with day trading. Like everything in life in trading different things line up at their own pace and schedule. Just keep at it.

Previous chart about A/D breakout without following analysis is not complete. Following charts show 6 sectors as a starting point. I try to keep macro analysis simple otherwise it can get out of hand , e.g looking at every sector, their historical patterns and on and on. In the end we are day traders, so need to get too far out.

"Reading sector relative strength
by Adam Grimes | Aug 24, 2014 | Chart of the Day, Relative Strength | 0 Comments
Relative strength is an important trading concept, and there are a lot of ways to define, monitor, and trade these relationships. Looking at the sector relative strength within the US stock market gives a deeper understanding of money flows and psychological support for a bigger rally. One of the keys to stock market rallies is that leadership tends to be persistent, particularly on rally legs. When markets consolidate, as this market arguably has been doing since the beginning of this calendar year, sector rotation is to be expected–it’s normal to see leaders emerge out of the foam and then crash back in failed breakouts. However, when we do catch these leaders, sometimes we can get very nice, long traders: in my published research, we have been overweight Healthcare since 7/27/2012 and underweight Utilities since 1/27/12–substantial wins for what are now long-term trades. Of course, if you are going to do this you have to be willing to let some positions go at a small loss or breakeven, as we may have to do with an overweight on Energy that has lagged a bit since we put it on in May of this year.
I find it useful to look at spreads of indexes against the broad market; this is part of my analytical work done several times each week. Volatility-derived bands (similar to Bollinger bands) around the spreads give some idea of the volatility of the spread, but, remember this is not tied directly to underlying market volatility–be clear that it is the volatility of the spread relationship. I am presenting these nine charts without a lot of commentary, but have summarized my reads with the very scientific “one or two arrows” system. (Two arrows = stronger conviction for a move in that direction.) Also, just like anything else in the market, there is not always a directional edge. Sometimes the best we can say is “dunno”, and I have indicated these sectors with a sideways arrow. (It is also useful to sometimes drill deeper, down into the industry or sub-industry level.)
Anyway, here is a look at the current relative position of the major sectors within the US market. It is interesting to note that a possible inflection in Discretionary, a sector which often drives strong rallies, may be lining up with very bullish condition in broad indexes. This is an example of how quantitative analysis can begin to inform a more subjective read on market direction.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Last edited by mfbreakout; August 24th, 2014 at 06:37 PM.
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