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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #251 (permalink)
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Anyone trading QQQQ and thinkinking off shorting, be careful, IF AAPL clears 100 area- it can catch fire to the upside.

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  #252 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Anyone trading QQQQ and thinkinking off shorting, be careful, IF AAPL clears 100 area- it can catch fire to the upside.

AAPL, GOOG etc are strong and thus had to be careful with shorts when some of them are at inflection point.

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  #253 (permalink)
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Yesterday CL after consolidating around 93.42 went back upto 94 area. Today, remians to be seen what she does.

Was that because of support? One can say 93.42 to 93.21 ( as of 12.14 pm eastern time) is only 21 ticks difference-
I am in that camp. What if CL goes to 93, 92.70 etc.?

I have no idea. All i know i do not want to initiate a new short unless some REAL selling pressure comes in. One may say- i can not handle this kind of uncertainity etc. That will be right approach. But to go long with some magic stop loss- has no chance. That's why magic stop loss traders should sit on sidelines or use whatever confirmation tools one has to see if longs make sense.

Even with tools for a long trade to work for 40-80 ticks without a LONG hold time has no chance. At best these tools with some heavy dose of luck can only do what tools do in wrong hands. They give -ve SURPRISES. What happened to the luck part of the equation? Oh, it's there. It saved you from getting ones tits chopped off while focusing on ticks. I will say that' s being pretty lucky.

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" All i know i do not want to initiate a new short unless some REAL selling pressure comes in".

Reshort. What happened? I changed my mind. It's not auto trading that i turn on computer and listen to music after taking a position with feet up on the desk.

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  #255 (permalink)
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Let's say a swing trader was short yesterday from 94.60 with a target of 92 or whatever. What did he had to endure?

He had to endure CL getting down to 93.42 and getting back to 94.30 area during Globex session- he basically basically got nothing. Today, CL marched again from 94.30 to 92.66. What did day traders do? They cleaned up from both long and short side. So there are benefits to starting out as a 30 ticks type of trader, understand what goes on on an intra day basis and at some point develop a sense of what some other time frame tradeers are doing/thinking.

It's kind like mixing different styles like Wyclef Jean mixing with Bee Gees.


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  #256 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
" All i know i do not want to initiate a new short unless some REAL selling pressure comes in".

Reshort. What happened? I changed my mind. It's not auto trading that i turn on computer and listen to music after taking a position with feet up on the desk.

Hey mfbreakout

Long time follower of your methods. I have recently adopted ACD.
Just a query. I noticed your OR is 60 mins?
From yesterdays session I used a 45 min OR from 8:30am EST and the OR low was 93.96. I somewhat interpreted an A down thereabouts 93.84 and held for 40 ticks.
How does one distinguish the most 'comfortable' OR period ? You say you use a wider OR on oil report days.
I understand that one size does not fit all.

Thanks

James

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  #257 (permalink)
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jthom View Post
Hey mfbreakout

Long time follower of your methods. I have recently adopted ACD.
Just a query. I noticed your OR is 60 mins?
From yesterdays session I used a 45 min OR from 8:30am EST and the OR low was 93.96. I somewhat interpreted an A down thereabouts 93.84 and held for 40 ticks.
How does one distinguish the most 'comfortable' OR period ? You say you use a wider OR on oil report days.
I understand that one size does not fit all.

Thanks

James


Hi James,

Comfortable OR period?

What is the biggest challenge of traders who want to trade 50,100,200 contracts per position intra day?
Do they come in every day worrying about picking some magic single entry point which is so PRECISE that they can put on 200 contracts in one shot , put on some magic stop loss and sit back?

See attached chart . My premise is that wide OR helps to be on the right side vs narrow OR like 5 minutes etc. But there are traders who BANG out with narow OR all day long also. It depends on each trader personality. I hate anything related to speed when it comes to trading and thus use wide OR.

Wednesday OR: It is from 8.30 am to 10.45 eastern time. Why? The idea behind OR is that relevant news which can impact CL needs to be out and then see what intentions of majority of traders are and trade accordingly.

Let's see at 10.45 am ORH turns out to be 93. 80 and ORL 92.70 ( i am just guessing for this example).
Price fails to go above 93.80 with any conviction, it can go to 93.90, 94 but never stays there and keep coming back, i am shorting it. I do not need anything else to decide what to do once OR is formed.

This is ACD at it's very basic. There are many other factors which need to be incorported into ones trading.

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  #258 (permalink)
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Nat gas keeps doing this to me again and again. Obviously i need to develop even more patience then i have to trade NG.

Why did not i go long as price was going above ORH? Is not that ACD is about? Yes and No. Don't we hate it when there is a Yes and right after that a No?

Yes, if instruement one is trading is in a bullish trend. No, in case of bearish or just rotation. If i was long off ORL, i may have added to long to ride the luring traders in process. But i was not long off ORL. It helps to keep " LURING TRADERS IN" process to facilitate big traders trades "FRONT and CENTER" rather than just focusing on ticks and fancy as being a PRICE ACTION trader.

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  #259 (permalink)
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jthom View Post
Hey mfbreakout

Long time follower of your methods. I have recently adopted ACD.
Just a query. I noticed your OR is 60 mins?
From yesterdays session I used a 45 min OR from 8:30am EST and the OR low was 93.96. I somewhat interpreted an A down thereabouts 93.84 and held for 40 ticks.
How does one distinguish the most 'comfortable' OR period ? You say you use a wider OR on oil report days.
I understand that one size does not fit all.

Thanks

James

I assume you may be a fan of cricket ( One never knows. I was talking with a trader from Italy and he was not interested in soccer at all. Even sure bets give surprises). Wide OR helps to deal with fast balls. I plan to watch cricket all day during trading. It's been a while since i watched cricket.




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mfbreakout View Post
I assume you may be a fan of cricket ( One never knows. I was talking with a trader from Italy and he was not interested in soccer at all. Even sure bets give surprises). Wide OR helps to deal with fast balls. I plan to watch cricket all day during trading. It's been a while since i watched cricket.
[


Thanks for the insight.

Yes cricket in Australia is good. Cricket in summertime is great. Cricket with BEER in summertime is AWESOME. hehe

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