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COMMON SENSE


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Updated November 27th 2014 by mfbreakout
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COMMON SENSE

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  #241 (permalink)
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One time framing

No chance of one time framing. Just plain rotation. I wish market internals numbers had come down a bit but they are staying strong and it's a sign of slow rotation. Too slow even for my taste.

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  #242 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
I have .24 daily return, 0.72 weekly return and 2.88% monthly return written every where in my office.
When, where and how those special trading days will show up when it's time to max it, we never know. We just speculate and trade accordingly.

that reminds me of the mercenary trader's oceans eleven principal.

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

\_(ツ)_/

(╯□)╯︵ ┻━┻
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  #243 (permalink)
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principle



madLyfe View Post
that reminds me of the mercenary trader's oceans eleven principal.


I am not aware of mercenary trader or their ocean eleven principle. What is it?

Thx.

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  #244 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
I am not aware of mercenary trader or their ocean eleven principle. What is it?

Thx.

really good read. cant remember where i got it? panda perhaps.

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

\_(ツ)_/

(╯□)╯︵ ┻━┻
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  #245 (permalink)
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thanks


madLyfe View Post
really good read. cant remember where i got it? panda perhaps.

Very nice . Thanks. I just get leary when i see something like following about a method

" robot-proof, rust-proof, and banker -proof".

Otherwise very good write up and quite deep in it's implications.

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  #246 (permalink)
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Stop Loss

Lot of traders i interact from time to time are having a hrad time with my wide stop loss trading and risk management strategy. I have always said if one is happy and satisfied with their current strategy- keep on doining it. I am just sharing my journey starting from being a 10 ticks profit type of trader to my current risk management strategy. Each one of the traders whom i know and who are at a level where i want to be- have a very similar strategy.

Following post from Dr. Steenbarger indirectly makes a point ( at least the way i read it).

TraderFeed: What Proportion of Daytraders Actually Makes Money?

" I strongly recommend reading the research study of speculator skill from Barber, Lee, Liu, and Odean. They studied the returns of daytraders over a 15-year period, the largest sample I am aware of in such a study. Their study is also unique in that it looks at the ability of traders to make money in a second year after having made money in the first.

The authors conclude that "there is clear performance persistence." The very top traders who make money net of fees tend to continue to make money going forward. The traders who lose money tend to continue losing money.

Here is the most important conclusion, however:

"In the average year, 360,000 individuals engage in day trading. While about 13% earn profits net of fees in the typical year, the results of our analysis suggest that less than 1% of day traders (less than 1,000 out of 360,000) are able to outperform consistently." (p. 15).

In other words, 87% of day traders in a given year lose money after fees are taken into account. About .28%--one in 360--is able to make money after fees year over year.

To be sure, that small group of very successful day traders earns a significant return. After expenses, they average +28 bps per day. Compare that to the 350,000 out of 360,000 daytraders who average a daily loss of 5.7 bps per day after expenses.

The authors conclude that day trading skill genuinely exists. They also conclude that it is very, very rare. "

I happen to believe that i do not want to give my self pass/fail grade based off my ability to pick exact turning points of an intraday move based off my ability to pick them within 10-20 ticks stop loss.

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CC

CC got away.

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CL and NG

If 100+ ticks desired on a trade, one has to learn to ignore 20-30 ticks bounces in between and HOLD. No longs yet. There is never ever a good counter trend set up, so take your time if thinking about longs. It took 2 hours to get paid and if not careful 20-40 ticks of that can disappear in a NY minutes if using that magic stop loss.

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mfbreakout View Post
If 100+ ticks desired on a trade, one has to learn to ignore 20-30 ticks bounces in between and HOLD. No longs yet. There is never ever a good counter trend set up, so take your time if thinking about longs. It took 2 hours to get paid and if not careful 20-40 ticks of that can disappear in a NY minutes if using that magic stop loss.

shouldnt the B and D provide enough room for a stop?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

\_(ツ)_/

(╯□)╯︵ ┻━┻
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stop loss



madLyfe View Post
shouldnt the B and D provide enough room for a stop?


If your are talking about stop loss based of 45 minutes OR above ORH in case of A down yes, but those are just starting points. I used to use them strictily to the tick but got nicked couple of times, so i expanded the stop loss based off ATR.

With 45 minutes OR- stop loss is mostly 50-80 ticks wide to begin with.

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November 27, 2014


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