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COMMON SENSE
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COMMON SENSE

  #231 (permalink)
Elite Member
Paris + FRANCE
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Favorite Futures: 6E, 6B, CL
 
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mfbreakout View Post
I can see CACFUTURE laughing at working 11 months out of 12 months in a year. My understanding is French likes to take 3-4 months out of a year for vacation.

You can adjust 11 months accordingly


and we pretend to work for the remaining 11 months
CACFUTURE

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  #232 (permalink)
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He you

Pink Flyod - these boys surely take their time to set the song up. Very similar to trading set ups in most cases. Added to longs in TF.


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COMMON SENSE-2014-08-18_1026_cl_tf.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; August 18th, 2014 at 12:02 PM.
 
  #233 (permalink)
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TF


Why only longs on my mind and why i added to longs after taking some cars off?

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  #234 (permalink)
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ZS

" Hedge funds extended the longest bearish streak for soybeans in eight years as improving crop conditions bolster prospects for a record harvest in the U.S., the world’s largest grower.

Money managers have been betting on declines for five straight weeks, the most since October 2006. The U.S. on Aug. 12 raised its outlook for domestic production that was already forecast at an all-time high. The bumper harvest will swell global inventories to the biggest ever."


Everytime ZS bounces 1-2%- i been shorting it . Basically as candle counting traders get lured in- rug gets pulled. Market need 2 sided participation to have a game. Very similar to what's been happening in CL.

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  #235 (permalink)
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Calls

What's the easiest thing to do in day trading?

Pick direction of a potential move.

What's the most difficult thing to do in day trading?

Execution with proper risk management. I was short CL from 97.02 10 days ago , looking for 95 and break down of 95 etc. However, Ukraine situation threw in a temporary monkey ranch and CL spiked to 98.40 area before heading back down over next 7-10 days with usual SONG and DANCE in between.

Flexible and Nimble discretionary traders have an edge over any auto or algo program out there which are programmed based off historical patterns or anything else under the sun.
One just have to understand SONG and DANCE which goes on in between on the way to wherever macro headwinds are pushing an instruement.

I will take 25-40 ticks on longs from 93.50 while trading box is formed for 11.30 to 1 pm time frame and i will short just as so called hockey stick movement shows up- if it does at all. As usual my main trading for the day is over. Trading after hitting daily goal is on small position size to pay for comission of morning trades or just something to do. Staying long in TF after taking some off.

RISK MANAGEMENT: Most misused concept in trading and a major cause of broken dreams. I listened to around 16 trading experts last saturday. This telethon was arranged to raise funds for an educator/trader. Good to see trading community acting as a community. Every presenter had the same approach and message regarding stop loss. Keep it tight. No wonder, surprises never stops for majority of traders.

Tight stops ONLY make sense in counter trend trading. But why would anyone trade counter trend to begin with?


Last edited by mfbreakout; August 18th, 2014 at 01:42 PM.
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  #236 (permalink)
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stop loss

Got a message from a trader " long 93.49, stop loss 93.43 and got stopped out when CL reversed from 93.80 (lol)"

I am not sure what he is laughing about? He did not short this morning as CL was too close to his various support levels and waited all day to finally initiate a long. One can not get more disciplined than that. However, discipline, patiently waiting for A+ set up etc all went out of the window with that magic stop loss. If same situation get repeated a dozen times ( which is very common) he will be looking into webster dictionary as to what being patient really means. In other words confidence get shaken.

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Last edited by mfbreakout; August 18th, 2014 at 06:29 PM.
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  #237 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
I will take 25-40 ticks on longs from 93.50 while trading box is formed for 11.30 to 1 pm time frame

Tight stops ONLY make sense in counter trend trading. But why would anyone trade counter trend to begin with?

We've been going down all morning and for the last several days friday being the exception....so are your longs mentioned here trend trades? And if so on what time frame.

I should add, I'm not trying to be cheeky here, just curious why longs in light of the argument against counter trend trades....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #238 (permalink)
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trade


PandaWarrior View Post
We've been going down all morning and for the last several days friday being the exception....so are your longs mentioned here trend trades? And if so on what time frame.


" Trading after hitting daily goal is on small position size to pay for comission of morning trades or just something to do. "

Based off experience probability of a pendulum going back and forth during lunch doldrums is very high. So trade is based off ATR, time of the day etc.

The trade is of no consequence. I traded this tendency of CL , a.k.a box trading during lunch hour time for a long time and just like to get paid for that screen time. Lot of traders also called this probing a market. One has to be aware that CL can keep dropping till enough shorts are lured in to make it worthwhile to make a reversal of some kind. Since, one never knows what may happen after ATR has been hit and when there are NO CLEAR SIGNS of buyers or Sellers- it's not a game of tight stop loss or in other words a game most traders should not engage in if a drawdown of 30-50 ticks will damage their confidence and have no ability to manage a trade by having plenty of DRY POWDER on hand.


Last edited by mfbreakout; August 18th, 2014 at 02:21 PM.
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  #239 (permalink)
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Progress

progress did not come in one full swing. Started with 10-15 ticks targets and always on the wrong side. With that kind of target and stop loss there is no other way but to be on the wrong side all day long.

Then 30 ticks all day long. Improvement but tight stop loss kept the FEAR in trading.

60-100 ticks with direction and wide stop loss and next level up.

Nothing goes to waste if one keeps records. 30 ticks set ups are still LIVE and KICKING but with a new twist. The new twist is to understand randomness of price movement during certain times and in certain range.

4 decisions on the day.

1) Short CL.
2) Long CL.
3) Long TF.
4) Short GC. Scratch.

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Last edited by mfbreakout; August 18th, 2014 at 03:08 PM.
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  #240 (permalink)
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Randomness


Binary options games in play Out flat 93.85.

Accept randomess of price movement under certain conditions and try not to judge success of a trade without understanding randomness of price movement.

We all agree that each single trader has no impact on price movement. What's the point of judging ones success based off stop loss ?


In trading i like following defination of discipline;

Trading way under your buying power majority of the time is a true testament of ones discipline. I am tempted every day and i fight it every day. I have .24 daily return, 0.72 weekly return and 2.88% monthly return written every where in my office.
When, where and how those special trading days will show up when it's time to max it, we never know. We just speculate and trade accordingly.


Last edited by mfbreakout; August 18th, 2014 at 03:28 PM.
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