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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #201 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
I did not look at weekly chart. What this chart is telling us? What does mid line means. How to trade this?

Thx


Context only. I do not trade with a weekly, I only look at it once a week or so to determine if I am close to a major pivot area. Thats it.....

In terms of your shorts yesterday and today, I think it provides context to determine potential hold times and potential turning points....and it looks as though we might be at one right now.....

That being said, the mid point is just that, the mid point. Price seems to have rotated around it pretty consistently if you are long term player in this market. Perhaps it will rotate to the bottom of the range again.

My experience with mid lines is they are a kind of directional filter for those wishing to trend trade using it as a pull back area or perhaps fade the edges back to the middle for those trading the range.

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  #202 (permalink)
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CL gave me more headaches today then she has in a long time. I basically ignored failed A downs all day and was in shorts all day. Loss within limits and still holding shorts.

Every time i ignore ACd and do something else- it reminds me RULES of the game.

Added to short 97.70. Trying to manage my way out of CL.

CONTEXT: My main reason for gettting bearish in CL last night is due to the fact that even with all the troubles in Russia/ Ukraine- CL continues to be very weak. Nothing new here. CL has been weak for 2 weeks now. Gold ha sjumped 3% in 2 days on the news but CL no bid. So, instead of sticking with my daily routine of trading ACD, i decided to test event driven trades and has not worked out so far.

Hey been a while since i posted any analysis,

Here was my take on CL today.

Even though I am still macro bearish until we see a clean break below $97 we are still rotational in the current trading range.

So today my intra day plan was to fade yesterday's lows until proven that we was going to see the break out of this range with expansion to the sell side here.

The reason for this is because trying to time a break out market is very hard so again untill the proof is there you get chopped up in the fake outs. So until the imbalance card is shown my strategy is to play the range until a break out is shown along with a selling imbalance.

If any thing to me and the order flow/market making I have been watching this week we have seen buyer active below $97 capping this price level for the moment, this is either to get more business done here while value catches up with price or there are legitimate buyers in this key support zone. On the macros $97 is key support and again until broken could hold with reversion back to key levels over head.

Here is some context I am working with at the moment from Macro to Micro..

Monthly and weekly bars showing key support again until broken we should respect these levels, until we see the break out the expectation is rotational.


on the HTF Dvalues again from Macro to micro:

- the weekly is looking rotational with compression

- Monthly showing rotational with untested value above, so will we see a complete disconnect from last month with a break out here or are we going to see a revision back to last month's perception of value?

- Quarterly we are trading below last quarter's value now and this quarter's Davlue is imbalance to the sell side and value has been playing catch up with price currently rejecting the 1.5 SD. This could push prices lower as value catches up or we will come back into balance with a reversion to the mean with the hypothesis of testing last month's naked value

- The yearly is now looking rotational, a destination trade will be complete into $94 and we will see this with the break out below $97, but we are at key support here holding this years 0.5 SD.




Here is some other context to work with;



So we can clearly see $97 is a major fractal and major support here and until broken should be respected.

From an intra day perspective today here was my plan. We are currently still rotational so fade the extremes until we see a break out where we go with the selling imbalance.




Here is the current clear range we are in and until we break out my plan stays the same fade the extremes and play the range until we see the next directional move where I will go with the imbalance.


This is what I was looking at this morning on the 5 day composites, the mean price has shifted down now so will be interesting what play we get tomorrow now along with the day bracket, if we keep trading the way we are we have had 4 days of 1 time framing down now and the 5 EMA has caught right up so we'll be expecting a reaction tomorrow for either a break out or a complete change in marco bias if we hold support here and end this week with a compression bar into this $97 key support zone.


Daily RTH


So I think we are currently at very important support and again until we break this area and crude shows its next directional move I am being very careful shorting into this area from the lows of the current range. I have been positioning myself all week for a break out from the highs but ever time we see buyers cutting off sellers and no break down.

Anyway I know you're an awesome trader just thought I would share my maps

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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  #203 (permalink)
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" The reason for this is because trying to time a break out market is very hard so again untill the proof is there you get chopped up in the fake outs. So until the imbalance card is shown my strategy is to play the range until a break out is shown along with a selling imbalance. ".

Agreed 100% and that's the beauty of ACD is. It keep a trader on the right side vs forcasting etc.
Thanks for your analysis and please post whenever you feel like on CL or any other instruement.

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  #204 (permalink)
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1) Closed short in CL around 97.40. Short was from 97.02 area. long 97.40. Target 98.20 area and above it can run. I will be surprised if CL gets above 98.20 but i get surprised all the time.

2) Long GC around 1310.

3) Short TF. No takers for ES, NQ, TF.

Asian sessions typically do not have wide range, so not sure how long i will hold. Makes sense to use my RULE of using ATR as targets. Will see how it works out in Globex session.

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  #205 (permalink)
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Well thanks to Greenr and PandaWarrior post this afternoon , i started thinking about my short. I had no way of knowing that CL woud rip up like this during Asian session.

Was reading some research and saw GC, CL making move to the upside and TF, ES to the down side. Per Mark Fisher,
we trade first and ask questions later when there is unusual move underway.

The way CL closed today, i had already started thinking about closing my short.

First charts shows notes to myself on swing trading and 2nd one Asain session trade.

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  #206 (permalink)
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Out of swing trading mode in CL and back to day trading. Short 98.37. Just run of the mill pullback expectation set up. gave enough time to see if next leg up is in the cards.

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  #207 (permalink)
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CL back to rotation. Short ideal target 97 area and see if longs make sense there.

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Forrest Vs Trees.

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Q) Where was my stop loss on short from 98.13 area?


A) One should not follow my stop loss strategy. My risk profile is different from yours. Typically it's 100 ticks from my trade location. Most of the time it works for me. From time to time it does not work especially when i get aggressive.
For example, short of 97 area turned out to be too close to this week balance area. Even then trade gave plenty of time to get out but i was too focused on 95 and break of 95 without paying attention to low range of weekly balance area.

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  #210 (permalink)
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As usual bullish/bearish calls from very experienced traders were of no use. Best thing to do is let market settle downn, internals giving some clues and then HOLD.

ORL of 1115 to 1125 area- pretty decent size move and counting. But based off my ATR targets, on a rotational day, i will take 6 points.

On CL shorts off ORH and now trying long off 97.20 for rotational move in a tight range , so small size for lunch money.

As posted this morning"CL back to rotation. Short ideal target 97 area and see if longs make sense there." Had to wait 3 hours for CL to come to an area to try long. On a tight range day, either do not trade or be very picky with set ups. Still not sure what caused 140 ticks rip up in CL during Asian session.

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