COMMON SENSE - futures io
futures io



COMMON SENSE


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one mfbreakout with 980 posts (2,732 thanks)
    2. looks_two sandptrader with 64 posts (128 thanks)
    3. looks_3 alejo with 36 posts (38 thanks)
    4. looks_4 madLyfe with 24 posts (25 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Surly with 3.4 thanks per post
    2. looks_two mfbreakout with 2.8 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 jthom with 2.6 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 sandptrader with 2 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 115,112 views
    2. thumb_up 3,303 thanks given
    3. group 64 followers
    1. forum 1,262 posts
    2. attach_file 811 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

Closed Thread
 
Search this Thread
 

COMMON SENSE

(login for full post details)
  #101 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

I have accepted regardless of how careful i am , i will from time to time break RULES, get over excited. Breaking the rule is not on a whim. There are some set ups which calls for pushing the boundaries. Problem can get out of hand if
while pushing the boundaries one is not careful with position size.

An example is short GC at ORL with size. I did not wanted to wait. However, going in in sub consious i knew i am pushing it and had a plan in mind.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-07-30_0853_short.png
Views:	70
Size:	145.1 KB
ID:	152095  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #102 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

We all have different rituals/habits to get back in the grove. Deep breating, taking a walk for 5-10 minutes, smell the roses, listen to music etc..


Cl is trading in a box since yesterday afternoon. As usal shorts and longs with long hold time paid off. TF, market internals were strong right at the open but TF stuck in a 8 points range, so shorts and longs for 6 points.

Whenever market wins- time for Bee Gees.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #103 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

I wish i had followed a similar plan.

In the video it's one trader perspective. Time it takes to become profitable can vary. For some it's 2 years, for some 4 years etc. but it's a LONG journey.

Bottom line- Do not quit your day job.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 7 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #104 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

I do not know the trader in the video. His presentation/logic makes sense.




Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #105 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

shorts and shorts.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-07-30_1458_short.png
Views:	82
Size:	178.0 KB
ID:	152117  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #106 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


mfbreakout View Post
I have accepted regardless of how careful i am , i will from time to time break RULES, get over excited. Breaking the rule is not on a whim. There are some set ups which call for pushing the boundaries. Problem can get out of hand if
while pushing the boundaries one is not careful with position size.

An example is short GC at ORL with size. I did not wanted to wait. However, going in in sub consious i knew i am pushing it and had a plan in mind.


Gold turned out to be a dud. Did not even gave chance to scrtach the trade. Had to eat morning loss. I pay for education every day.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #107 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

This one for Silver99.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #108 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


mfbreakout View Post
shorts and shorts.


Cover 99.48. Flat.


Every trader i have ever talked to can call the direction of a move/trend but can not execute due to

1) Tight stop loss.

2) Inability to hold. It takes hours and hours to get 100- 200 ticks on a day.


Try to keep in mind that for example today when CL moved from 99.94 to 100.34 area- it was a move to lure traders in. That's why on a counter trend trade gains are mostly 20-30 ticks and very few traders can get all of that.
By the time they get in and out- they mostly get 50% of 30 ticks.

I am sure some indicator showed that there were buyers around 99.94 when CL visited first time. By the time indicator line up, CL probably was at 100.10 etc and slowly once they got as many suckers as they could- slow ride down.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #109 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Argentina- there was something brewing across the pond that it made it woth while to get up early and see if
there is a trade to be made.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-07-31_0522_1-4_hour.png
Views:	61
Size:	125.1 KB
ID:	152180   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-07-31_0456_short.png
Views:	65
Size:	199.6 KB
ID:	152181  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #110 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

TF. reshort 1132.20. TF is making the day. off ORH. POC, Low volume node, high volume node, naked this and naked that- all out of the window. Since we have no idea how market internals will lay out, coming up with levels is
something to do at best. MoreAnalysis= More levels= Poor execution .


Shorts in GC- haave not worked so far. close to ORL and is not working.

short NG- decent scalp of fORH. Flat before 10.30 am Nat gas report.

short CL- decent scalp off ORH

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-07-31_1026_nyse.png
Views:	64
Size:	261.7 KB
ID:	152203  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #111 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

This for Janos. One of my favourite Irish band.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #112 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

This is for East Coast Trader. Always try to think about what kind of buying it will take to turn this ship around. Price stalling and moving up 2-4 points in between have no VALUE. Everytime TF, NQ etc. comes up for AIR it gets pushed down. Looking at so called order flow is one of the most determential things one can do on days like today.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-07-31_1137_limit.png
Views:	90
Size:	287.9 KB
ID:	152218  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #113 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

How to develop patience? Trade Gold, NG , ZS etc. It's amazing how these instruements teach patience if taken a wrong set up, wrong context etc. In my experience these things are highly dependent on major macro shift to make moves.

If i did not trade TF today and focused on GC, CL - it would have been an unforgettable day. Well finally got paid in CL. Damn TOS got frozen. Time to call help desk or reboot. It has only happened couple of times in 4 years.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-07-31_1154_shorts.png
Views:	78
Size:	213.7 KB
ID:	152227  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #114 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

NG- took counter trend trades as NG never gave a decent long opportunity after 10.30 am nat gas news.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-07-31_1432_ng_final.png
Views:	58
Size:	196.1 KB
ID:	152249  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #115 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


mfbreakout View Post
How to develop patience? Trade Gold, NG , ZS etc. It's amazing how these instruements teach patience if taken a wrong set up, wrong context etc. In my experience these things are highly dependent on major macro shift to make moves.

If i did not trade TF today and focused on GC, CL - it would have been an unforgettable day. Well finally got paid in CL. Damn TOS got frozen. Time to call help desk or reboot. It has only happened couple of times in 4 years.


Well GC also paid some. Cover some 1183. Flat.

CL cover 98.17. Flat. CL seems to be setting up for another leg down/Flush down. So, no longs for me unless REAL buying shows up.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #116 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Do not get confused with allure of buyers present especially when we have daily, weekly A downs.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-07-31_1448_BAM.png
Views:	106
Size:	145.1 KB
ID:	152250  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #117 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Nothing builds confidence more than trading with the trend even if the day turns out to be a looser. Similalry, nothing erodes confidence more than being on the wrong side of the trend even if some how one manges a scalp or two on a day when TF is down 28 points, ES down 40 points etc.

Luckliy someone made me understand this a while back. Out flat 1115.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-07-31_1532_TF_journey.png
Views:	81
Size:	199.6 KB
ID:	152256  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #118 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

We all look for days when One time framing is on full display. We want heads up. We want clues. However, when we
get EVIDENCE right in front of us, we muck it up. We keep using the tools which probably are of some help during 70%
of days, a.k.a - rotational days.

My recommendation will be to give up which works on rotational days and focus on what market internals are showing. Do not look at DOM, Do not attempt to look at so called order flow, do not look at smaller time frame and draw channels, triangles etc.

Just be aware of ATR and remeber on days like today ATR gets expanded/stretched double of normal range and then some.

Most importantly, do not even think about counter trend trades. Today, one had to decide on ONLY one thing. How much size to put on and then get out of the way.

Just think about it. Stocks A-Z all in red all day. VIX up 3.4% and on and on. If you are working at a prop. firm and at the end of the day, your report shows that you were taking counter trend trades. What possible explanation one can give for such an odd trading style?

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 6 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #119 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

" CL seems to be setting up for another leg down/Flush down. So, no longs for me unless REAL buying shows up."

CL is at 97.60. Nobody home. No takers.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #120 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

All over the internet, financial media etc people are presenting all kinds of scenarios. For example, E-mini will test 200 day MA, 1860 is the target, a 10% pullback is healthy for the bull market, bull market is intact, I am neutral, I am not shorting yet and on and on.

Someone just e-mailed me following " Apr 10 the spx dropped 41 handles, next day dropped another 15 and it felt like the end of the world. got it all back 4 days later..."

He is a swing trader and is not ready to short yet and was implying by e-mailing me above stats. that bull trend is still intact. My answer to him was i am neither bullish or bearish. Luckily as day traders we do not have to worry about what will market do on any particular day, week or month. I reminded him that YTD performance for Russell 2000 is -3.6%, S&P 500 is at 4.8%, DJIA 0.3%.


If market is ready to bounce back 40 points or go down another 40 points- it does not matter. We will be ready either way because footprints of the move will be right in front of us. We are discretionary traders and trade what's in front of us.We watch, get a sense of which way traders whose action really matter are leaning towards and then act.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #121 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Someone asked me how many instruements i trade.

Currently, i actively trade CL, RB and TF. Monitor a bunch and trade them when set up comes up. For every instruement set ups are the same. I do not trade Forex.
I am hoping someone will have a journal regarding forex i can follow.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-01_1129screen.png
Views:	74
Size:	286.2 KB
ID:	152304   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-01_1135_screen_1.png
Views:	64
Size:	240.8 KB
ID:	152305   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-01_1139_screen2.png
Views:	62
Size:	263.0 KB
ID:	152306  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #122 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Shorts and shorts.

1) 1st short was during euro session. Flat before 8.30 news

2) Once OR gor formed. short 97.74 and out 97.21.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-01_0612_jockey.png
Views:	80
Size:	172.7 KB
ID:	152309   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-01_0808_flatten.png
Views:	76
Size:	167.8 KB
ID:	152310   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-01_0828_cover.png
Views:	64
Size:	155.2 KB
ID:	152311  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #123 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

late to the party but direction is clear. Looking at anything which moves fast like DOM, so called order flow etc is detemential to ones trading IMHO. Someone texted me that TF has a big support around 1110 etc.

I said thanks but no thanks and shorted right there.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-01_1110_short.png
Views:	70
Size:	155.5 KB
ID:	152312  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #124 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

BADA BING.

Imagine coming up every day with 10 levels and scenarios for each instruement, drawing channels, triangles, counting candles etc and day trading?

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-01_1213_bada_bing.png
Views:	74
Size:	215.1 KB
ID:	152313  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #125 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Set ups and method have to be same across the board. It helps with execution. If majority of the time every trading instruement rotates within a rnage- it should be easy to trade. It can be unless we muck it up with analysis paralysis etc.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-01_1223_tf_matrix.png
Views:	74
Size:	223.0 KB
ID:	152316  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #126 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

It should not take more than 30 minutes to come up with a game plan for the day.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-01_1241_matrix1.png
Views:	111
Size:	135.7 KB
ID:	152317  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 8 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #127 (permalink)
 Bsinks 
Wichita Falls TX/United States
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Soybeans, Crude, Natural Gas
 
Bsinks's Avatar
 
Posts: 82 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 37 given, 65 received


mfbreakout View Post
It should not take more than 30 minutes to come up with a game plan for the day.

Very interesting chart

The following 2 users say Thank You to Bsinks for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #128 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Following is from a trader ( i do not know the person). I am using this as an example because i went through this for a long time. It is a well written post and reminded me of my struggles . This is not the entire post. Key point which stood out to me is " 10 ticks profit goal" and need to stay within very stricit rules/guidelines.

For a discretionary trader it's a NO, NO. Why? because one is competing with computers. One is trading randomness.
No matter how discipline one is, no matter what kind of plans one has- one can not trade noise as a discretionary trader. Sizing up a trade, adjusting to market conditions etc. are all hallmark of a discretionary trader. The trader wants to act like a machine.

If one wants to act like a machine, one should develop an automated system and trade for 5 ticks, 10 ticks etc. all day long and all night long. This require all the capabilities of competing automated systems in the market to beat them. If one has resources to do that- all good.

Note: I am not implying that automated trading systems can only produce 5 ticks etc.



"So my current challenge is a variation on a theme of not 'sticking to my plan'. Rather than not sticking to my plan through frustration of it not working or boredom (which have happened in the past!) this time I have not stuck to my plan due to over-confidence and feelings of invincibility. For some time now I have had a daily target of 10 ticks and daily stop loss of 15 ticks. During July I traded very well sticking to my plan religiously but what I found was the overconfidence/ego thing started to creep into my psyche. With hindsight I can look back now and realise it was happening slowly every day incrementally. I had a long streak of winning days, I am not going to say how many but it was long. Part of my plan was to shut down my trading platform once my daily target was done, the reason for this is I like to preserve mental energy for another day. Sometimes it takes me 30 mins to hit my daily target other times 4 hours. On Wednesday of this week I decided to continue trading past my +10 ticks daily target. My mindset at the time was, 'I have only been trading 90 minutes' I am leaving so many ticks on the table here, I will just take prime set ups and push for more ticks'. This was going off plan. I went on to make +20 ticks for the day, twice my daily target. Driving home I felt invincible, I started to think about sizing up next week and what I would spend the extra money on. With hindsight I can now see how this was a marker for what was to come.

Tuesday - I was very tired, I had to be up at 5.30am to get the car to the garage, plus I was distracted the night before. So with hindsight my decision making abilities were not 100% even though I thought they were fine.

My first trade showed me a good profit of +6 ticks however for some reason I hesitated, I didn't take it and scratched it. Second trade at one point showed me +6 ticks, again I didn't take and ended up taking a -3 (!wtf!). At this point I am looking back in my journal and thinking, what the hell is going on I could have taken +5 on both these trades and have completed my daily target, platform shut down. But no. 3rd trade - great entry and I took a -4 loser, nothing wrong with this trade, just didn't pan out and I took the loser according to plan.

This is where in hindsight I got really pi55ed off with myself, I was riled and my decision making ability was impaired. i was -7 ticks on the day when I could have had my daily target complete. 4th trade was a good entry but I managed it badly and took a -5. I am now at -12 ticks for the day and pi55ed. With hindsight I should have shut down and ended there booking a -12 tick on the day. Coming off the back of a long streak of +10 tick days and a +20 tick day the day before a -12 tick day is fine in the grand scheme of things.

Then came trade number 5. I know I wasn't thinking straight as I cant even remember why I entered, my journal just says, 'poor entry', 'badly managed'. I ended up taking a -21 tick loser. wtf. wth. I finished the day on -33 ticks in absolute disgust. I had just wiped the majority of this weeks gains out.my daily stop loss of 15 ticks went out the window, why did I ignore this? ignore 15 why ignore 20 ticks. A 20 tick loss on the day would have been bad but not a disaster but -33 ticks wtf."

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #129 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,492 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 49,155 given, 21,795 received


mfbreakout View Post
Following is from a trader ( i do not know the person). Key point which stood out to me is " 10 ticks profit goal".
For a discretionary trader it's a NO, NO. Why? because one is competing with computers. One is trading randomness.
No matter how discipline one is, no matter what kind of plans one has- one can not trade noise as a discretionary trader. Sizing up a trade, adjusting to market conditions etc. are all hallmark of a discretionary trader. The trader seems to act like a machine.

If one wants to act like a machine, one should develop an automated system and trade for 5 ticks, 10 ticks etc. all day long and all night long. This require all the capabilities of competing automated systems in the market to beat them. If one has resources to do that- all good.

Note: I am not implying that automated trading systems can only produce 5 ticks etc.



"So my current challenge is a variation on a theme of not 'sticking to my plan'. Rather than not sticking to my plan through frustration of it not working or boredom (which have happened in the past!) this time I have not stuck to my plan due to over-confidence and feelings of invincibility. For some time now I have had a daily target of 10 ticks and daily stop loss of 15 ticks. During July I traded very well sticking to my plan religiously but what I found was the overconfidence/ego thing started to creep into my psyche. With hindsight I can look back now and realise it was happening slowly every day incrementally. I had a long streak of winning days, I am not going to say how many but it was long. Part of my plan was to shut down my trading platform once my daily target was done, the reason for this is I like to preserve mental energy for another day. Sometimes it takes me 30 mins to hit my daily target other times 4 hours. On Wednesday of this week I decided to continue trading past my +10 ticks daily target. My mindset at the time was, 'I have only been trading 90 minutes' I am leaving so many ticks on the table here, I will just take prime set ups and push for more ticks'. This was going off plan. I went on to make +20 ticks for the day, twice my daily target. Driving home I felt invincible, I started to think about sizing up next week and what I would spend the extra money on. With hindsight I can now see how this was a marker for what was to come.

Tuesday - I was very tired, I had to be up at 5.30am to get the car to the garage, plus I was distracted the night before. So with hindsight my decision making abilities were not 100% even though I thought they were fine.

My first trade showed me a good profit of +6 ticks however for some reason I hesitated, I didn't take it and scratched it. Second trade at one point showed me +6 ticks, again I didn't take and ended up taking a -3 (!wtf!). At this point I am looking back in my journal and thinking, what the hell is going on I could have taken +5 on both these trades and have completed my daily target, platform shut down. But no. 3rd trade - great entry and I took a -4 loser, nothing wrong with this trade, just didn't pan out and I took the loser according to plan.

This is where in hindsight I got really pi55ed off with myself, I was riled and my decision making ability was impaired. i was -7 ticks on the day when I could have had my daily target complete. 4th trade was a good entry but I managed it badly and took a -5. I am now at -12 ticks for the day and pi55ed. With hindsight I should have shut down and ended there booking a -12 tick on the day. Coming off the back of a long streak of +10 tick days and a +20 tick day the day before a -12 tick day is fine in the grand scheme of things.

Then came trade number 5. I know I wasn't thinking straight as I cant even remember why I entered, my journal just says, 'poor entry', 'badly managed'. I ended up taking a -21 tick loser. wtf. wth. I finished the day on -33 ticks in absolute disgust. I had just wiped the majority of this weeks gains out.my daily stop loss of 15 ticks went out the window, why did I ignore this? ignore 15 why ignore 20 ticks. A 20 tick loss on the day would have been bad but not a disaster but -33 ticks wtf."

This is really a great point. I see people scalping for like 4 ticks a trade, and sure, there are some who can do it, and apparently consistently, and some are even live when they do it (which is not the same as playing sim at all.) But, for the most part, I think it really is going up against the machines, who are simply going to do it better than you, whoever you may be.

There's also the psychological side of trading, which you have but the machines do not. Looks like this trader got sunk by that, when his trading went off the rails and he tried to make back losses instead of stopping.

These really small trades are just too tricky for me, and you have to be very, very accurate, while the market just has to twitch a little to make you wrong and in a loss.

That's the way it seems to me, anyway. Again, a great point.

Bob.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #130 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Hi Bobwest,

Good observation. I will like to touch upon on this notion of " stop trading".

" Looks like this trader got sunk by that, when his trading went off the rails and he tried to make back losses instead of stopping."

When premise of a trading method/approach is wrong putting on restrictions like stopping has no chance in the long term. It's in human nature to improve. We start with 10 ticks, move onto 30 ticks, start seeing day trading what it is and move on to bigger targets/goals.

Traders who do not understand this keep blaming themselves for not being disciplined, breaking the rules and on and on. One can be trading successfully, for example, for a 10 ticks daily goal for months and in subconsious will start feeling as to what kind of moron he is that day after day he is stuck with the same routine, same approach etc.

Humans are designed to evolve. If one has built entire trading experience against human nature ( a.ka. trading like a machine)- sooner or later human nature will take over and BAM.
Such traders should focus on automated systems. Automated systems are constantly tweaked, enhanced, adjusted etc and thus take care of their creators inherent desire/need to improve and evolve.

Question a trader has to ask as to how he/she wants to take care of this need? Discretionary traders take care of this by constantly improving, adjusting vs acting like a machine.
Automated/Systems traders take care of this need by improving,tweaking their systems.

Problem with the trader in the previous post is that he is going against his own very nature by trying to act like a machine.

NOTE: I am not implying that we do not need RULES. Rules based on market structure/context have a chance. Rules based on ones equity size, how much one can afford to loose has no chance in the long term. If one can not afford to participate in the trading game per market structure/context because stop loss is too wide, risk is too much etc. then one is not ready to play the game. This is a very long debate and what is market structure and what kind of risk one should take per market structure is the HOLY GRAIL of trading.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #131 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,492 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 49,155 given, 21,795 received


mfbreakout View Post
Hi Bobwest,

Good observation. I will like to touch upon on this notion of " stop trading".

" Looks like this trader got sunk by that, when his trading went off the rails and he tried to make back losses instead of stopping."

When premise of a trading method/approach is wrong putting on restrictions like stopping has no chance in the long term. It's in human nature to imrove. We start with 10 ticks, move onto 30 ticks, start seeing day trading what it is and move on to bigger targets/goals.

Traders who do not understand this keep blaming themselves not disciplined, breaking the rules and on and on. One can be trading successfully, for example, for a 10 ticks daily goal for months and in subconsious will start feeling as to what kind of moron he is that day after day he is stuck with the same routine, same approach etc.

Humans are designed to evolve. If one has built entire trading experience against human nature ( a.ka. trading like a machine)- sooner or later human nature will take over and BAM.

Such traders should focus on automated systems. Automated systems are constantly tweaked, enhanced, adjusted etc and thus take care of their creators inherent desire/need to improve and evolve.

Question a trader has to ask as to how he/she wants to take care of this need? Discretionary traders take care of this by constantly improving, adjusting vs acting like a machine.

Automated/Systems traders take care of this need by improving,tweaking their systems.

Problem with trader in the previous post is that he is going against his own very nature.

I had to read this twice before I got your point, and you're right. (I read it twice not because it wasn't clear, I just didn't get it at first.)

I have rules that tell me to stop (for the day) when I have a certain level or number of losses, but this is just putting on the brakes when something isn't going well -- limiting the damage.

But: "When premise of a trading method/approach is wrong putting on restrictions like stopping has no chance in the long term" makes sense. If I understand you, those restrictions were not going to work because he was going to want to move ahead as a trader, and if he didn't have an outlet for that desire, the limitations he had put on himself would eventually have to break down, and that's when he ran into trouble.

This makes a lot of sense to me. I never had thought of it that way.

Bob.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #132 (permalink)
 londonkid 
London, UK
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT, CQG, esignal, TWS
Trading: Futures, spot FX, Energy Spreads Prop Firm
 
Posts: 61 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 16 given, 60 received


mfbreakout View Post
Following is from a trader ( i do not know the person). Key point which stood out to me is " 10 ticks profit goal".
For a discretionary trader it's a NO, NO. Why? because one is competing with computers. One is trading randomness.
No matter how discipline one is, no matter what kind of plans one has- one can not trade noise as a discretionary trader. Sizing up a trade, adjusting to market conditions etc. are all hallmark of a discretionary trader. The trader wants to act like a machine.

If one wants to act like a machine, one should develop an automated system and trade for 5 ticks, 10 ticks etc. all day long and all night long. This require all the capabilities of competing automated systems in the market to beat them. If one has resources to do that- all good.

Note: I am not implying that automated trading systems can only produce 5 ticks etc.



"So my current challenge is a variation on a theme of not 'sticking to my plan'. Rather than not sticking to my plan through frustration of it not working or boredom (which have happened in the past!) this time I have not stuck to my plan due to over-confidence and feelings of invincibility. For some time now I have had a daily target of 10 ticks and daily stop loss of 15 ticks. During July I traded very well sticking to my plan religiously but what I found was the overconfidence/ego thing started to creep into my psyche. With hindsight I can look back now and realise it was happening slowly every day incrementally. I had a long streak of winning days, I am not going to say how many but it was long. Part of my plan was to shut down my trading platform once my daily target was done, the reason for this is I like to preserve mental energy for another day. Sometimes it takes me 30 mins to hit my daily target other times 4 hours. On Wednesday of this week I decided to continue trading past my +10 ticks daily target. My mindset at the time was, 'I have only been trading 90 minutes' I am leaving so many ticks on the table here, I will just take prime set ups and push for more ticks'. This was going off plan. I went on to make +20 ticks for the day, twice my daily target. Driving home I felt invincible, I started to think about sizing up next week and what I would spend the extra money on. With hindsight I can now see how this was a marker for what was to come.

Tuesday - I was very tired, I had to be up at 5.30am to get the car to the garage, plus I was distracted the night before. So with hindsight my decision making abilities were not 100% even though I thought they were fine.

My first trade showed me a good profit of +6 ticks however for some reason I hesitated, I didn't take it and scratched it. Second trade at one point showed me +6 ticks, again I didn't take and ended up taking a -3 (!wtf!). At this point I am looking back in my journal and thinking, what the hell is going on I could have taken +5 on both these trades and have completed my daily target, platform shut down. But no. 3rd trade - great entry and I took a -4 loser, nothing wrong with this trade, just didn't pan out and I took the loser according to plan.

This is where in hindsight I got really pi55ed off with myself, I was riled and my decision making ability was impaired. i was -7 ticks on the day when I could have had my daily target complete. 4th trade was a good entry but I managed it badly and took a -5. I am now at -12 ticks for the day and pi55ed. With hindsight I should have shut down and ended there booking a -12 tick on the day. Coming off the back of a long streak of +10 tick days and a +20 tick day the day before a -12 tick day is fine in the grand scheme of things.

Then came trade number 5. I know I wasn't thinking straight as I cant even remember why I entered, my journal just says, 'poor entry', 'badly managed'. I ended up taking a -21 tick loser. wtf. wth. I finished the day on -33 ticks in absolute disgust. I had just wiped the majority of this weeks gains out.my daily stop loss of 15 ticks went out the window, why did I ignore this? ignore 15 why ignore 20 ticks. A 20 tick loss on the day would have been bad but not a disaster but -33 ticks wtf."

Hey

The above trader is me lol. posted that up on ET about 90 minutes ago. same username on ET as here on BM. If you guys have any advice for me please feel free to comment I will read and respond in good time (family commitments here). If the process helps anyone else than that's all good.

The following 2 users say Thank You to londonkid for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #133 (permalink)
 londonkid 
London, UK
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT, CQG, esignal, TWS
Trading: Futures, spot FX, Energy Spreads Prop Firm
 
Posts: 61 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 16 given, 60 received

just for completeness here is the full post I made over on ET ' I thought I would share a current challenge I am facing which I need to work on. I don't think it is the last thing I will have to master as I don't view my trading like that, I don't think it can be 'solved' so to speak. There will always be things that need improvement or working on even when I am a 70 year old man placing a trade (quite a few decades away lol).

So my current challenge is a variation on a theme of not 'sticking to my plan'. Rather than not sticking to my plan through frustration of it not working or boredom (which have happened in the past!) this time I have not stuck to my plan due to over-confidence and feelings of invincibility. For some time now I have had a daily target of 10 ticks and daily stop loss of 15 ticks. During July I traded very well sticking to my plan religiously but what I found was the overconfidence/ego thing started to creep into my psyche. With hindsight I can look back now and realise it was happening slowly every day incrementally. I had a long streak of winning days, I am not going to say how many but it was long. Part of my plan was to shut down my trading platform once my daily target was done, the reason for this is I like to preserve mental energy for another day. Sometimes it takes me 30 mins to hit my daily target other times 4 hours. On Wednesday of this week I decided to continue trading past my +10 ticks daily target. My mindset at the time was, 'I have only been trading 90 minutes' I am leaving so many ticks on the table here, I will just take prime set ups and push for more ticks'. This was going off plan. I went on to make +20 ticks for the day, twice my daily target. Driving home I felt invincible, I started to think about sizing up next week and what I would spend the extra money on. With hindsight I can now see how this was a marker for what was to come.

Thursday - I was very tired, I had to be up at 5.30am to get the car to the garage, plus I had a minor argument with the wife the night before. So with hindsight my decision making abilities were not 100% even though I thought they were fine.

My first trade showed me a good profit of +6 ticks however for some reason I hesitated, I didn't take it and scratched it. Second trade at one point showed me +6 ticks, again I didn't take and ended up taking a -3 (!wtf!). At this point I am looking back in my journal and thinking, what the hell is going on I could have taken +5 on both these trades and have completed my daily target, platform shut down. But no. 3rd trade - great entry and I took a -4 loser, nothing wrong with this trade, just didn't pan out and I took the loser according to plan.

This is where in hindsight I got really pi55ed off with myself, I was riled and my decision making ability was impaired. i was -7 ticks on the day when I could have had my daily target complete. 4th trade was a good entry but I managed it badly and took a -5. I am now at -12 ticks for the day and pi55ed. With hindsight I should have shut down and ended there booking a -12 tick on the day. Coming off the back of a long streak of +10 tick days and a +20 tick day the day before a -12 tick day is fine in the grand scheme of things.

Then came trade number 5. I know I wasn't thinking straight as I cant even remember why I entered, my journal just says, 'poor entry', 'badly managed'. I ended up taking a -21 tick loser. wtf. wth. I finished the day on -33 ticks in absolute disgust. I had just wiped the majority of this weeks gains out.my daily stop loss of 15 ticks went out the window, why did I ignore this? ignore 15 why ignore 20 ticks. A 20 tick loss on the day would have been bad but not a disaster but -33 ticks wtf.

Friday - didn't trade as I had other commitments. Probably a good thing I took a little break given Thursday's performance.

Looking back the warning signs were there for me. Anyway this is my new challenge, how not to repeat this. lolol.'

The following user says Thank You to londonkid for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #134 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Hi LondonKid,

I had sent you a private message something like following

Thanks for your post. It's a well written post and it reminds me of my struggles. I am going to use your post as refrence to see what other traders think.

I try to stay away from giving advice to any one trader. It's just based off my personal experience. I was given all kinds of advice and i did not pay attention to any. I guess we all come to realization on our own. I do however find general discussion helpful.

You said it well " If the process helps anyone else than that's all good.".

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #135 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Hi Bob,

" If I understand you, those restrictions were not going to work because he was going to want to move ahead as a trader, and if he didn't have an outlet for that desire, the limitations he had put on himself would eventually have to break down, and that's when he ran into trouble."

Correct. It's from personal experience. I have gone through this for many years. At one point i got tired of blaming my self and started to think what are some of the reasons i keep making same mistakes over and over again. Slowly, it dawned on me that putting restrictions on a wrong approach will not work. Maintaining a journal and as result interacting with other traders helped me in realizing some of the stuff. You have a fine journal and interaction via your journal etc. will speed up the learning curve.

That's the reason i started journaling again.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #136 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,492 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 49,155 given, 21,795 received


mfbreakout View Post
That's the reason i started journaling again.

And I'm glad you came back to doing it.

Bob.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #137 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

I am biggest fan of SIM trading around. How come i am such a fan?

There are many, many benefits of SIM trading which most traders are familiar with. For me the key benefit is that it provides a trader opportunity to test and push the boundaries. Figure out what's it like being out of comfort zone etc.
Unfortunately, traders use SIM exactly the opposite way.

I used SIM for years trying to straight jacket myself with all kinds of rules. I will SIM trade within so called RULES for months, come to live trading where everything works fine for a certain time ( some time a month, some time more)
and then inherent desire to improve etc. will kick in and BAM. We can only act as a machine for so long.

I will go back to SIM mode thinking i need more discipline and start the cycle all over again without realizing what kind of damage i am doing it to myself.

Now, i use SIM and LIVE trading what's it designed for. To break free of self made useless RULES and focus on RULES which are dictated my market structure/context. I would have never moved away from tight stop loss if i did not practice in SIM plus LIVE to see actually what happens rather than just doing what everybody else seems to be doing.

NOTE: I am not recommending anyone to move away from whatever risk control approach they are using. I am just recommending to try something beyond what's not working in SIM and see if it works for you. There is no need to keep self blaming one self for RULES which has nothing to do what markets are about.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #138 (permalink)
 londonkid 
London, UK
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT, CQG, esignal, TWS
Trading: Futures, spot FX, Energy Spreads Prop Firm
 
Posts: 61 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 16 given, 60 received


mfbreakout View Post
Following is from a trader ( i do not know the person). I am using this as an example because i went through this for a long time. It is a well written post and reminded me of my struggles . This is not the entire post. Key point which stood out to me is " 10 ticks profit goal" and need to stay within very stricit rules/guidelines.

For a discretionary trader it's a NO, NO. Why? because one is competing with computers. One is trading randomness.
No matter how discipline one is, no matter what kind of plans one has- one can not trade noise as a discretionary trader. Sizing up a trade, adjusting to market conditions etc. are all hallmark of a discretionary trader. The trader wants to act like a machine.

If one wants to act like a machine, one should develop an automated system and trade for 5 ticks, 10 ticks etc. all day long and all night long. This require all the capabilities of competing automated systems in the market to beat them. If one has resources to do that- all good.

I certainly do impose on myself very strict daily profit and daily loss amounts (which were broken on thursday lol). In my case 10 ticks daily profit target and 15 ticks daily stop loss. I have been giving consideration to change this to 15/15 but that's a different story. My strategy contains some elements which have strict rules and some elements where there are no rules. For example one of my strict rules is I do not trade against a strong trend, not until I am sure it has reversed. Taking my profit is completely discretionary however the stop loss is strict.

It is true that I am trading against computers but I am also trading against point and click traders like myself. I am interested in discussing why acting like a machine is troublesome. Sometimes trading it does feel like I am trying to be a 'machine' or have machine like qualities. Two of the best traders I have bet have been machine like in their discipline and I don't think this is a coincidence. I know I will never go down the automated route, it's just not for me. July was intra week profitable for me, last week and Thursday's adventure meant that I finished the week on +7 ticks.

This reminds me of a repeating conversation I had with a prop trader friend of mine. He would be really angry and I would ask him what's wrong. He would say 'I just worked all morning for nothing'. I would always reply 'at least you didn't lose money'. This would then make him angrier and he would say 'but I didn't make anything'. He was so conditioned to making money that not making money would drive him crazy.

a few days would pass and then we would have virtually the exact same conversation. lol.

The following 2 users say Thank You to londonkid for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #139 (permalink)
 londonkid 
London, UK
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT, CQG, esignal, TWS
Trading: Futures, spot FX, Energy Spreads Prop Firm
 
Posts: 61 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 16 given, 60 received


bobwest View Post
This is really a great point. I see people scalping for like 4 ticks a trade, and sure, there are some who can do it, and apparently consistently, and some are even live when they do it (which is not the same as playing sim at all.) But, for the most part, I think it really is going up against the machines, who are simply going to do it better than you, whoever you may be.

There's also the psychological side of trading, which you have but the machines do not. Looks like this trader got sunk by that, when his trading went off the rails and he tried to make back losses instead of stopping.

These really small trades are just too tricky for me, and you have to be very, very accurate, while the market just has to twitch a little to make you wrong and in a loss.

That's the way it seems to me, anyway. Again, a great point.

Bob.

You are right you have to be very accurate and it is very hard to be a discretionary profitable trader on shorter time frames (and longer for that matter). You are going against automated traders who likely have multi top tier phds running them, the ones that dont work stop and get replaced by other algos who have a positive expectation. This makes it very competitive especially on shorter time frames.

I learnt this from someone else who I wont name here as it's irrelevant but I 100% agree with it. If you have 1 or 2 lapses of discipline per day that is enough to make you losing trader. Normally if you have one lapse i.e. dont take your profit where you expect price to go you will get away with it and continue on to have a profitable trader. Do that twice and overtime I believe you will lose. In terms of bigger lapses like not adhering to your stop, one of those per day is enough to bleed your account over time and make you a losing trader. The margins for success in this business are very thin imo.

I believe it is much harder to make it than most people think. One career trader I spoke to last week was talking about the grad intake to his company. He said not one of the graduates who had started in the last 3 years are still there. In the past he said usually 1 in 10 stay past year 1. Of these 3 go on to make good money and 1 goes on to make very good money. This is one of the London prop firms - not an institution where they have more of an edge and could use it pre-volker.

The following user says Thank You to londonkid for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #140 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

" For example one of my strict rules is I do not trade against a strong trend, not until I am sure it has reversed."
Rules like these are universal and need to be followed without exception.

"I am interested in discussing why acting like a machine is troublesome".

It's just a matter of personal style. For example, Crude Oil futures have an ATR of around 160 ticks. Under certain conditions it moves 80 ticks or so in a straight line. I am interested in those 80 ticks.

If ATR of CL is 160 ticks, i want to put stop loss 100 ticks away. For CL to move away from ATR 100 ticks, some macro shift, events needs to be underway like Gulf war etc. An experienced trader keeps track of these conditions and trades accordingly.

Having a 100 ticks stop loss does not mean that if massive buyers show up pushing ATR, i just sit and see if my 100 ticks stop loss gets hit. On seeing massive buyers, i just get out of the market. There is always a probability of THIRD FORCE showing up. Under certain situations it's more likely to show up than others and that's where position size etc. comes in.

Let's say, i have determined that CL is ready to move down to 99 after breaking 100 level. I short at 99.80 and put stop loss at 101.10. if price go to 100.20 before going down to 99, i have no problem as long as there is no massive buying. I have no way of knowing if CL will reverse from 100.20, 100.31 etc or straight down from 99.80. Price moving up or down without changing the set up i am trading has no impact on me.

Now, if i had put stop loss at 100.01, CL goes to 100.07, stops me out and then going down to 99 - that's would be a shame. It used to happen quite often to me so i had to make adjustments. If test and personal experience shows that 90% of the time ( except when events like Gilf war is underway) that my 100 ticks stop loss will not get hit it's a trade i take everytime and manage a trade with position size, scale out etc.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #141 (permalink)
 londonkid 
London, UK
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT, CQG, esignal, TWS
Trading: Futures, spot FX, Energy Spreads Prop Firm
 
Posts: 61 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 16 given, 60 received


mfbreakout View Post
One can be trading successfully, for example, for a 10 ticks daily goal for months and in subconsious will start feeling as to what kind of moron he is that day after day he is stuck with the same routine, same approach etc.

I agree with you here. Whilst it wasn't months it was weeks that I ticked along making my +10s and it sounds weird but I almost wanted a small losing day. My subconscious was saying to me, is this it? is this what I have to keep doing? I would add I do a lot of work thinking about 'what if' scenarios and thinking about why people think the way they do. You are 100% on it when you say we are built to evolve, the brain will keep pushing boundaries keep exploring, it's very hard to suppress it.


mfbreakout View Post
Humans are designed to evolve. If one has built entire trading experience against human nature ( a.ka. trading like a machine)- sooner or later human nature will take over and BAM.
Such traders should focus on automated systems. Automated systems are constantly tweaked, enhanced, adjusted etc and thus take care of their creators inherent desire/need to improve and evolve.

Question a trader has to ask as to how he/she wants to take care of this need? Discretionary traders take care of this by constantly improving, adjusting vs acting like a machine.
Automated/Systems traders take care of this need by improving,tweaking their systems.

Problem with the trader in the previous post is that he is going against his own very nature by trying to act like a machine.

to date I have tried to fill this need to evolve by doing this outside of trading. So I try and replace the need to evolve in trading with evolving in another way. i.e. learning languages, other skills etc.


mfbreakout View Post
NOTE: I am not implying that we do not need RULES. Rules based on market structure/context have a chance. Rules based on ones equity size, how much one can afford to loose has no chance in the long term. If one can not afford to participate in the trading game per market structure/context because stop loss is too wide, risk is too much etc. then one is not ready to play the game. This is a very long debate and what is market structure and what kind of risk one should take per market structure is the HOLY GRAIL of trading.

I personally believe it is possible to trade profitable with rules based on market structure/context as well as equity size/stop losses. I believe it is possible but very difficult. I suppose the reason I believe this is I have met 2 traders (both discretionary point and click) where I have seen assets they have purchased from trading profits which they could only have bought with profits from trading. I say that but they could be secret drug smugglers or living off of a 10m+ inheritance. lol.

Of course though I have met plenty of traders who no longer trade and the positive bias causes me to focus on the winners.

The following user says Thank You to londonkid for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #142 (permalink)
 londonkid 
London, UK
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT, CQG, esignal, TWS
Trading: Futures, spot FX, Energy Spreads Prop Firm
 
Posts: 61 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 16 given, 60 received


mfbreakout View Post
I am biggest fan of SIM trading around. How come i am such a fan?

There are many, many benefits of SIM trading which most traders are familiar with. For me the key benefit is that it provides a trader opportunity to test and push the boundaries. Figure out what's it like being out of comfort zone etc.
Unfortunately, traders use SIM exactly the opposite way.

I used SIM for years trying to straight jacket myself with all kinds of rules. I will SIM trade within so called RULES for months, come to live trading where everything works fine for a certain time ( some time a month, some time more)
and then inherent desire to improve etc. will kick in and BAM. We can only act as a machine for so long.

I will go back to SIM mode thinking i need more discipline and start the cycle all over again without realizing what kind of damage i am doing it to myself.

Now, i use SIM and LIVE trading what's it designed for. To break free of self made useless RULES and focus on RULES which are dictated my market structure/context. I would have never moved away from tight stop loss if i did not practice in SIM plus LIVE to see actually what happens rather than just doing what everybody else seems to be doing.

NOTE: I am not recommending anyone to move away from whatever risk control approach they are using. I am just recommending to try something beyond what's not working in SIM and see if it works for you. There is no need to keep self blaming one self for RULES which has nothing to do what markets are about.

interesting thoughts on SIM. my own beliefs on SIM are it's great for getting used to a new platform but aside from that small stakes live trading is more valuable. I would sooner trade 100 shares of SPY learning than using SIM but trading is very individual and some people like to test more.

The following user says Thank You to londonkid for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #143 (permalink)
 londonkid 
London, UK
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT, CQG, esignal, TWS
Trading: Futures, spot FX, Energy Spreads Prop Firm
 
Posts: 61 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 16 given, 60 received


mfbreakout View Post
Hi Bob,

" If I understand you, those restrictions were not going to work because he was going to want to move ahead as a trader, and if he didn't have an outlet for that desire, the limitations he had put on himself would eventually have to break down, and that's when he ran into trouble."

Correct. It's from personal experience. I have gone through this for many years. At one point i got tired of blaming my self and started to think what are some of the reasons i keep making same mistakes over and over again. Slowly, it dawned on me that putting restrictions on a wrong approach will not work. Maintaining a journal and as result interacting with other traders helped me in realizing some of the stuff. You have a fine journal and interaction via your journal etc. will speed up the learning curve.

That's the reason i started journaling again.

this is an interesting discussion and it's always good to hear from other peoples experience. So when you got tired of blaming yourself for making the same mistakes over and over you removed restrictions. I will check out your journal and see what you are up to. in the meantime I will stick to the 'just follow the rules goddamit' lol.

PS - i just realised this is your journal, I will shut up now.

 
(login for full post details)
  #144 (permalink)
 alejo 
madrid spain
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
Trading: None.
 
alejo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 16,557 given, 643 received


mfbreakout View Post
Day traders Paradise and we do not have to make forecasts, make projections, worry about HFT, Times and Sales,

Level 11, Ice berg orders and on and on. It was right there. TF YTD is -ve but patient day traders with ability to hold in the right direction with market internals are up nicely on YTD basis.

The ones who forecast TF, ES will be here or there in 2 days, one week etc. and use stop loss to avoid so called NO HEAT keep forecasting.

Anyone betting against direction of $ and market internals ( especially when they are both in sync) has a long way to go.

thank you for your posts, they are very interesting, i enjo them
sorry for my ignorance, could you give me more details about the paradise of internals, what are you using
thanks
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to alejo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #145 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

From private messages i have received, it seems like traders are having a hard time with my 100 ticks stop loss strategy.

Before implementing stop loss strategy , it is IMPERATIVE that a trader proves to himself that he can pick direction of a trend correctly. If wrong in this area- 100 ticks or 200 ticks, it will not work.

ACD helps me with direction and stop loss. If test and personal experience shows that 90% of the time ( except when events like Gilf war is underway) that my 100 ticks stop loss will not get hit it's a trade i take everytime and manage a trade with position size, scale out etc.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #146 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


alejo View Post
thank you for your posts, they are very interesting, i enjo them
sorry for my ignorance, could you give me more details about the paradise of internals, what are you using
thanks
alejo


Market internals. On Wednesday, traders/Analysts were making all kinds of forecasts, some calling for bullish moves, some calling for bearish moves etc. On Thursday there were no longs in TF, ES, etc.

My point always has been forecasting is a useless excerise for day traders. When market opens , we lean against collective actions of traders and trade. There were no longs on Thursday and it was based off market generated information not on forecast.

Both attachments show market internals. One for 07-18 and the other for 07/31 ( thursday) etc. 07-18 longs and longs. 07/31 shorts and shorts. Now imagine you picked direction of the move right based on information you have in front of you but mucked it up with a tight stop loss?

I am not sure if your are barcelona fan but i am pretty sure you are a soccer fan.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-07-18_1608_paradise.png
Views:	72
Size:	210.1 KB
ID:	152372   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-01_1135_screen_1.png
Views:	57
Size:	240.8 KB
ID:	152373  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #147 (permalink)
 alejo 
madrid spain
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
Trading: None.
 
alejo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 16,557 given, 643 received


mfbreakout View Post
Market internals. On Wednesday, traders/Analysts were making all kinds of forecasts, some calling for bullish moves, some calling for bearish moves etc. On Thursday there were no longs in TF, ES, etc.

My point always has been forecasting is a useless excerise for day traders. When market opens , we lean against collective actions of traders and trade. There were no longs on Thursday and it was based off market generated information not on forecast.

Both attachments show market internals. One for 07-18 and the other for 07/31 ( thursday) etc. 07-18 longs and longs. 07/31 shorts and shorts. Now imagine you picked direction of the move right based on information you have in front of you but mucked it up with a tight stop loss?

I am not sure if your are barcelona fan but i am pretty sure you are a soccer fan.

yes, i am from the barca, also i was born in argentina, then i am Leo Messi fan

thank you for your quick answer

then the internal you use
plot the diference of the 2 internal indexes upvol les downvol and adv stock less decl stock
both nyse and nasdaq?

and when you refer to +ve, or -ve, what do you mean?

and teh last one... the A up ,A down setup, where can find info in your posts to understand what you explain about , they failed

thank you very much!
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
(login for full post details)
  #148 (permalink)
 alejo 
madrid spain
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
Trading: None.
 
alejo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 16,557 given, 643 received


mfbreakout View Post
Most of the traders here at futures.io (formerly BMT) and other forums do not have a chance.

Why?

Because they are basically moochers.

How do i know?

I have talked with Private Banker, Vince Virgil, Gabrieyele and a dozen who posted in my previous journal-
consenus is the same. None of them want to mainatin a journa due to lack of ideas sharing from moochersl. They decided to become vendor and that's the end of their ideas.

I get lonely so i keep posting.

yes, it is really true, i am a moocher(garrapata), i want to learn and try to ask from the master traders, it is dificult to extract them, the problem that we dont sharing ideas is our knowledge/experiences is not comparable to yours, then is dificult and also i think it will not be usefull for you.
is like master/pupil relationship

thanks again for your posts

alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
(login for full post details)
  #149 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,492 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 49,155 given, 21,795 received


mfbreakout View Post
From private messages i have received, it seems like traders are having a hard time with my 100 ticks stop loss strategy.

Before implementing stop loss strategy , it is IMPERATIVE that a trader proves to himself that he can pick direction of a trend correctly. If wrong in this area- 100 ticks or 200 ticks, it will not work.

ACD helps me with direction and stop loss. If test and personal experience shows that 90% of the time ( except when events like Gilf war is underway) that my 100 ticks stop loss will not get hit it's a trade i take everytime and manage a trade with position size, scale out etc.

A lot of people do well with big stops. Some use no stops at all.

A wide stop, as I understand the idea, is there mainly as disaster protection. The wide-stop trader usually will decide to terminate a position based on the reason for the trade having been proven wrong, not based on a particular price level being hit.

I think this makes compete sense if you can do it, but I also think it's hard. As of yet, I have not tried it.

On the other hand, have I ever had this experience?:

- I decide trend is down (or up)
- I get in on a strong down bar, my stop is the normal distance away that I usually use
- Price bounces up and takes my stop
- Trend resumes down without me
- I get in on a strong down bar, my stop is the normal distance away that I usually use
- Price bounces up and takes my stop
- Etc., while much cursing goes on, and price keeps going down without me.

Sometimes I have had a string of losses trying to get into a trend that I was right about from the beginning.

So, it does not make sense, to me, to always do either "What I have always done," nor "What everyone knows you should do." A person needs to experiment.

As of today, I am not trying the super-wide stop, because I like having that stop in there to just get me out at a level that I decided on before entering the trade. Once in a trade, I have noticed many times that I am no longer very rational, at least if things start to go wrong. On the other hand, very tight stops can be very tricky. If you are scalping, and you are only going after a very small profit many times a day, then sure, a tighter stop makes sense. But much of the time, it can pay to give the trade some room.

I'm still working on what I think about stops, trade management, and all the rest. After more testing I'll probably know more than I do now.

But sure, wide stops make perfect sense if you then manage your trade appropriately. And what works for one person is what works for them, not necessarily for everyone, nor even for themselves always and forever....

Bob.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #150 (permalink)
 alejo 
madrid spain
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
Trading: None.
 
alejo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 16,557 given, 643 received


mfbreakout View Post
Traders using MA etc. are stunned and in disbelief with CL moves. Yesterday 90 ticks move from 102 area after 30

ticks range SONG and DANCE for majority of the day .

The short covering pushed CL into 103.40 area into Asian session and today there are NO TAKERS.

Everyone like to be a PRICE ACTION trader but then they count candles all day and get surprised.

yes, it is.
you know me

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
(login for full post details)
  #151 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


alejo View Post
yes, it is really true, i am a moocher(garrapata), i want to learn and try to ask from the master traders, it is dificult to extract them, the problem that we dont sharing ideas is our knowledge/experiences is not comparable to yours, then is dificult and also i think it will not be usefull for you.
is like master/pupil relationship

thanks again for your posts

alejo

I think you misunderstood me or maybe i was not clear enough. To be a moocher bar is quite high and include

1) Following someone for years and never ever hitting a thanks tab. In my previous journal of around 560,000 views, i am aware of certain characters who been coming to my journal for years and never hitting thanks tab. It just makes me wonder about the person.

2) Not making any kind of contribution at futures.io (formerly BMT) forum whatsoever.

3) Troll around futures.io (formerly BMT) for years and worry about if it's woth spending $100 ( or whatever fee is) to support Mike efforts by becoimn Elite member.


Maintaing a journal requires lot of time and effort. Not everyone has time or as you said ready or feel comfortable. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. Lastly, do not feel you have nothing to contribute here or at futures.io (formerly BMT) in general. Everyone has something to share. futures.io (formerly BMT) has 100's of forums from picture of the day to song of the day and everything in between. If you start a journal and ask for help- i guarantee there will be plenty to help.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #152 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


alejo View Post
yes, i am from the barca, also i was born in argentina, then i am Leo Messi fan

thank you for your quick answer

then the internal you use
plot the diference of the 2 internal indexes upvol les downvol and adv stock less decl stock
both nyse and nasdaq?

and when you refer to +ve, or -ve, what do you mean?

and teh last one... the A up ,A down setup, where can find info in your posts to understand what you explain about , they failed

thank you very much!
alejo


call your data provider/broker and ask for help regarding market internals and google for further explanation. Both NYSE and NASDAQ. For ACD- read Mark Fisher book. Following link provides intro.

ACD Method Intro

After you have basics of ACD under your belt and it appeals to you, you can read last month of posts from my previous journal


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #153 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


mfbreakout View Post
call your data provider/broker and ask for help regarding market internals and google for further explanation. Both NYSE and NASDAQ. For ACD- read Mark Fisher book. Following link provides intro.

what would be your mkt internals for things other than stock index futures like the CL, for example?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to madLyfe for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #154 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


madLyfe View Post
what would be your mkt internals for things other than stock index futures like the CL, for example?

There are no market internals for CL, Nat Gas etc. For CL DOE report on wednesday at 10.30 am eastern time is an indiactor. I have never looked at the report and no need to.

I watch as to how price behaves after the report. OR for that day is extended to 10.45 am eastern time. For me to be bullish on CL, it needs to trade above OR. If not , i short it on failed A up.
That's why i say it's easier to trade index futures when market internals line up.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-02_1805_short_final.png
Views:	66
Size:	146.8 KB
ID:	152377  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #155 (permalink)
 alejo 
madrid spain
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
Trading: None.
 
alejo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 16,557 given, 643 received


mfbreakout View Post
BY JupaFX.


The story of Mr. Not Average Joe

This is the real story of Not Average Joe. I had the opportunity, a few years back, of having a direct contact with this fellow, who was a successful former FX dealer that had also managed other people's money and had eventually settled for trading his own (immense) capital. Just to put things into perspective, his account was populated by over 250 thousand Euros. After all, he was Not Average Joe. He had demonstrated the capability to make money and work the FX markets for years on end. Now, in his late 40s, he was at home trading for himself from his 1 screen computer (a vision that many of us aspire to, no doubt).

The story is not about that he used to be profitable. As you can imagine, he was profitable because of his background and experience. He worked the USD desk, which was the most complex operation going. So he knew his way around the FX markets like few others did. However he did always say that he had to work a lot harder ever since he left the bank.

Mr. Not Average Joe had no trouble speaking of his trades. He took around 15-20 trades per day, and used a low amount of leverage per each trade. Each single position was a 1-lot position (100K). And this fellow was making around 3-4% per month. So he was successful. Very successful! But as time went by, I started understanding that he had a problem. Why was such a successful person always upset with the world (he was very negative in his world view and always referred to his gains as “peanuts”), and why was he not happy with his life?

I started to observe when he would answer my questions, and how long he would stay connected to Skype. It turns out that his habits were awkward. He was trading around-the-clock. He took some naps obviously but he could trade basically anywhere from 7AM in the morning to 3AM the next morning. This was the first tell-tail. He was evidently NOT working smart. He was working HARD. And he was not happy about it. Also, taking all that risk (20 trades/day is a LOT of market risk) and making 3-4% per month seemed questionable. He had a very high win rate – around 84% - so basically he could trade for less hours, adding a little more risk to each trade, and come out with the same %-return or even more. But he didn't.

Then I saw another pattern, that emerged from his comments and from his equity curve.


The pattern was always the same: he would be as consistent as a machine, trade away and then after a while make a bigger bet and wipe out a lot of gains. And then he started over. For some reason, he held onto losers because of his experience as a dealer, and would hedge them or rotate the position onto some other currency pair. For example, if he was long USDCAD and the market started going south, he would frequently hedge the problem. If it was an adverse USD-move, then he would sell USDCHF and hence transform the position into a short CADCHF. Other times, when he just didn't like the position, he would use the triangular relationships in FX to transfrom his position into something more interesting. For example he was long USDCAD and started to dislike the position over a period of hours, he might decide to rotate it into USDJPY by buying CADJPY.

So while he was good at what he did, he also had this inherent bias towards not taking a loss. He would rotate his position, rather than take a loss. When he DID take a loss, it was around 1.5 times his average gain. So obviously his profitability came from his insane hit rate. While he was profitable and he had been a professional trader for years, it's not really a good practice to hang your hat on a high win rate at the cost of much larger losses.

But despite all these technicalities, the worst part of Not Average Joe's trading habits was the recurrence of large hits. He would fight for weeks on end and then shift his thinking from a short term perspective to a more longer term swing, ultimately losing large sums. This of course was affecting his psyche. He would reduce his stake, take a couple of days off, and then come back and work his way back up the equity curve...until the next big hit. He was not able to control this self-destructing habit of his. When I inquired as to how he could let himself get into such a mess, he said that he had a natural habit of not respecting his risk parameters. This apparently “came from the days at the bank where I could hold onto positions for quite some time, because I knew that the market would come back sooner or later”. So you see, even experienced traders get caught in some of the bad habits that novice traders frequently display:

1) falling into the overconfidence trap: “I know it will go my way” mentality

2) holding onto lo losing propositions because they “fall into the swing category and not the scalping/short term trading category”.

3) Overestimating our capability to understand what's going on (sentiment/intermarket correlations)

4) incapacity to identify and eliminate bad habits

clip_image004

What eventually happened to Not Average Joe? He kept trading 16 hours a day...he had a wife that was not able to help him...he started running low on energy and finally got himself tangled up in a long USDCHF position that cost him 80% of his entire trading account. He still trades, but very small and very infrequently.

Not Average Joe had a sickness. He was not satisfied with his life, and with what he was doing. He was “hiding” inside his trading habits, because it made him feel like he was “doing the right thing, doing something useful”. But his habits eventually brought out the truth: he was unable to let go. He was unable to have fun with his accumulated capital and take his trading less seriously.

You can suffer even if you're winning


Mr. Not Average Joe had become addicted to his trading. He was hiding from real life, inside his trading endeavors. And yes, these things happen to skilled professionals as well as novice traders. As long as you have some sort of unresolved issue in your life, trading will bring it out. Trading will force you to face your inner demons.

What goes on in the brains and bodies of people like Not Average Joe (approximately 1 in 10 traders) who are addicted to trading? The researchers from UCLA Gambling Studies Program have gone in-depth and their insight is quite fascinating. Addicted traders feel the need to be in the markets at all times and feel the need to be trading. At one level, this is a type of addiction to excitement, mediated in part by a neurochemical called dopamine. It is the thrill of the game, and the rush that comes from the anticipation of reward. But a 2013 study from The Imperial College, London and the University of Cambridge has discovered that there's more than just dopamine involved. Dr. Tim Fong, Co-Director of the UCLA Gambling Studies Program says, “The brain of a pathological gambler is very different than that of a social gambler while they play," he said. "The neurotransmitters dopamine, serotonin and norepinephrine play an important role in all addictions. In pathological gamblers, certain dysfunctions are present prior to addiction, and put people at higher risk of developing such behavior.”

MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging) scans show areas of the brain that activate or “light up” when a person believes he or she is about to get a monetary reward. There is a social stigma around money. It may, in fact, be the last great taboo of our culture. People will tell you everything about the most intimate details of their lives, but they will not tell you about their money: How much they have. How much they want. What they think about others who have more or less money than they do. What money really means to them.

Traders and others suffering from addiction are sick because of their secrets. In order to conceal their secrets, they lie and deny. But the brain can’t lie when it is placed in an MRI Scan. The brain images tell secrets that the addict can't or won’t express. Money is the biggest secret of all. It’s more secret than drugs or alcohol. People have more emotions of shame, guilt, greed and lust around money than perhaps any other singular thing.

clip_image006The-importance-of-information-in-Selling-shares

What is he doing? He might be hiding from his secrets or from reality, behind all these screens...

And so it goes. Traders boot up their computers, turn on their trading platforms and become hypnotized by the flickering ticks. Each tick of the market represents the sum total of the greed and fear of every single one of the millions of people trading at that time. We also know that the majority of people that are attracted to the “game” look for certainty and “excuses” to get active in the market through Technical Analysis. We go through great lengths, at Orderflowtrading, to stop people from putting their faith into some magic lines.

Sure, technical analysis sounds good and looks professional when you plot all sorts of things on your chart that give you “confidence through confluence,” but what are we really trying to understand when we look at a chart? It's merely human emotions plotted on a grid.

A trip through greed and fear

Here's how it happens. You turn on your computer, and first thing look at your charts. You stare at them, you zoom in, zoom out, add/remove indicators until you see it. An opportunity! "I have to get in right now, because the price is running away from me. If I just chase it just this one time, it should be OK because I see the price going up, and I am convinced that I can make a killing on this one. Why should I wait for the pullback? Maybe it won't pullback at all, and then I will have missed it. "

Your dopamine brain pathways, activated by potential for reward, kick into high gear. The dopamine neurons are firing on all cylinders. It's all good and wonderful—until it isn't. Suddenly, the position starts to turn against you. Drawdown is loss. Loss hurts. The brain registers losses 2.5 times more intensely than it feels gains. Chasing caused pain, and now the pain is financial, physical and psychological. Now what?

The dopamine and other reward pathways of the brain shut down, and the brain connections that mediate fear begin to activate. This is your emotional volatility. The end result is confusion, frustration, blaming, self-sabotage, addiction and systemic toxicity. All of these drain the trader and leave him feeling empty, confused, disillusioned and just plain worn out.

Losing makes people physically ill. A study by Joseph Engelberg and Christopher Parsons from the University of California at San Diego showed that a one-day drop in equities of approximately 1.5% is followed by a 0.26% increase in hospital admissions on average over the next two days. Additionally, the impact on psychiatric conditions such as anxiety or panic disorders is even stronger, with hospital admissions nearly doubling in one day. Losing money makes people sick and sick people even sicker!

But addicts – even successful ones like Mr.Not Average Joe - don’t know when to stop trading. They lie to themselves, cheat, and steal to do this. Eventually, they fail. And it’s a whole lot more than money. It’s psychological, physical, emotional and spiritual. They are lost and floundering. When a trader is stressed, sleep-deprived, contaminated with continual worrisome thoughts or in a toxic state because of bad trades, there is nothing but despair, self-loathing, anger or depression.

Even if we assume that traders do not have more frequent addictive behaviors than the general population, the statistics tell us that, in all likelihood, nearly one trader in every ten has a diagnosable addictive problem.

- for those that have attention deficits → trading provides action and you can buy a dozen screens;

- for those who cannot tolerate boredom → trading provides action;

- for the trader who is depressed (like Not Average Joe) → trading can provide an escape from the self and a sense of immediate gratification.

Such traders need to trade and keep trading whether they have an edge or not. They frequently lose their money, generate failure experiences for themselves, and create hardships for their families.

What to do?
For those that have an addiction to trading – for whatever reason - it's not about "discipline" and following trading rules anymore. It's about getting their lives back, getting the right kind of help. If you see any aspect of yourself in this portrait, do the right thing. For you, and also for those who love you. Trading should expand your control and self-mastery, not become an instrument for its destruction.


To sum up: people hardly ever talk about the negative impact that trading can have on you. Trading can become a way to escape from reality; trading can turn into the ultimate tool with which to channel personal problems. It's not always easy to understand whether this is the case or not, because it happens to profitable traders as well as losing traders. Here is where it's good to have some sort of confrontation, whether with a spouse/partner or with a support group like fellow traders on our Trading Floor. If you lose contact with society/reality, then it's much easier to lose yourself in the markets. Keeping in touch with loved ones and/or with fellow traders can help you identify personal issues if they may arise – but only if you're totally honest with yourself.

Good Luck!

i am idendified with this, and i write in my journal that i stop to trade because i realize of this behavior and close account and stop, i think in april
now i am reassuming the learning process more part time
i was wodering if this time will be different.
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to alejo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #156 (permalink)
 alejo 
madrid spain
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
Trading: None.
 
alejo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 16,557 given, 643 received


mfbreakout View Post
call your data provider/broker and ask for help regarding market internals and google for further explanation. Both NYSE and NASDAQ. For ACD- read Mark Fisher book. Following link provides intro.

ACD Method Intro

After you have basics of ACD under your belt and it appeals to you, you can read last month of posts from my previous journal


thank you i will do
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
(login for full post details)
  #157 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

" am idendified with this, and i write in my journal that i stop to trade because i realize of this behavior and close account and stop, i think in april
now i am reassuming the learning process more part time
i was wodering if this time will be different.
alejo"


In my previous post where i shared market internals for 2 different days. One for longs and one for shorts. If you make a RULE that you will only trade with trend and once direction is clear you will notice the difference.

Most of the days it just noise and it requires a different set of skills to trade nose. I know certain traders who only trades when direction is clear and they do very well. This way one has less trading= less stress= more profits.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #158 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Couple of years ago, i was trying to work with some traders in terms of how i use Simulation in Supercharging learning. None of them could sustain intensity, dedication of my training sessions. Considering that i already had 2 years ahead start on them in terms of learning, it just amazed me that they will not commit to practice sessions. Traders who were good with programing, back testing etc were especially not interested in practice sessions. They will just run back testing and come back every day thinking they can trade. Based on their own feedback they still are struggling. To be fair it seems one of the main reason they could not practice was due to lack of free time after they were done whatever else they wer doing to earn a living.



By Brett Steebarger

Training Traders: The Role of Simulation in Supercharging Learning
A recent research report suggests that computer simulations can be as effective as direct observation in education. Simulations have long been used in medical education to help students learn the skills of physicians. Simulations are also standard in training airline pilots and in preparing for war scenarios. By trying out moves against a computer, developing chess players can work on various aspects of their game.

When I directed a training program for new traders at a prop firm, we found that simulated trading using live market data was especially helpful in preparing traders for shifting market conditions, dealing with uncertainty and risk, and making rapid decisions. Interestingly, we also found that when simulations were graded and reviewed by an instructor, they also incorporated some of the performance pressure faced during actual trading. If a trader knows that he has to sustain profitability in simulation mode before trading live, the simulation begins to simulate the emotional elements of trading.

Simulation, however, entails several advantages over live trading for training purposes:

1) Simulation allows traders to make mistakes and try out tactics without losing money early in their developmental processes;

2) Simulation allows for more focused learning, as traders can replay aspects of the day to rehearse trading under specific conditions;

3) Simulation provides standardization in learning, as trading days can be archived and traders can practice trading specific kinds of market conditions from the archives;

4) Simulation enables traders to get more learning into a day's period than would be possible during live trading, as many days' worth of experience can be concentrated into a single training day.

5) Simulation offers an objective test of traders' skills. If a trader cannot be successful in simulation mode with live market data, surely he will not succeed under the more strenuous conditions of having real money on the line.

A number of trading platforms and programs offer a "replay" mode that can serve as simulation-based learning for traders. By replaying challenging periods in the market, traders can observe mistakes that they made and correct them before the next day begins. That supercharges learning.

In my book Enhancing Trader Performance, I devote considerable space to the topic of simulation. My conclusion: "Research and experience suggest that the single most important investment you can make in your trading development is the acquisition of software that will allow you to develop your own training program and drill the skills that are central to your trading niche" (p. 100).

The great weakness of most "training" programs for traders is that they provide information, rather than develop skills. Information is necessary but not sufficient for the cultivation of expertise. Learning about chess or about surgery will not, in itself, create a chess champion or an elite surgeon. We can learn a great deal of information about football, but remain unable to master the game.

There is a very straightforward formula for success across performance fields: find the performance area that best matches your interests and talents; engage in structured practice under safe conditions to master the skills that are components of success; engage in realistic practice to assemble those components into actual simulated performances; and then tackle real-world performance situations with ongoing feedback and efforts at improvement.

Traders don't fail because they lack the right setups or because they weren't born with the right trading personality. Traders fail because they do not survive their learning curves: they put their capital at risk long before they have developed necessary skills and expertise. Simulation-based learning is a way to accelerate that curve and reduce the costs associated with the inevitable mistakes made by learners.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #159 (permalink)
 alejo 
madrid spain
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
Trading: None.
 
alejo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 16,557 given, 643 received


mfbreakout View Post
Couple of years ago, i was trying to work with some traders in terms of how i use Simulation in Supercharging learning. None of them could sustain intensity, dedication of my training sessions. Considering that i already had 2 years ahead start on them in terms of learning, it just amazed me that they will not commit to practice sessions. Traders who were good with programing, back testing etc were especially not interested in practice sessions. They will just run back testing and come back every day thinking they can trade. Based on their own feedback they still are struggling. To be fair it seems one of the main reason they could not practice was due to lack of free time after they were done whatever else they wer doing to earn a living.



By Brett Steebarger

Training Traders: The Role of Simulation in Supercharging Learning
A recent research report suggests that computer simulations can be as effective as direct observation in education. Simulations have long been used in medical education to help students learn the skills of physicians. Simulations are also standard in training airline pilots and in preparing for war scenarios. By trying out moves against a computer, developing chess players can work on various aspects of their game.

When I directed a training program for new traders at a prop firm, we found that simulated trading using live market data was especially helpful in preparing traders for shifting market conditions, dealing with uncertainty and risk, and making rapid decisions. Interestingly, we also found that when simulations were graded and reviewed by an instructor, they also incorporated some of the performance pressure faced during actual trading. If a trader knows that he has to sustain profitability in simulation mode before trading live, the simulation begins to simulate the emotional elements of trading.

Simulation, however, entails several advantages over live trading for training purposes:

1) Simulation allows traders to make mistakes and try out tactics without losing money early in their developmental processes;

2) Simulation allows for more focused learning, as traders can replay aspects of the day to rehearse trading under specific conditions;

3) Simulation provides standardization in learning, as trading days can be archived and traders can practice trading specific kinds of market conditions from the archives;

4) Simulation enables traders to get more learning into a day's period than would be possible during live trading, as many days' worth of experience can be concentrated into a single training day.

5) Simulation offers an objective test of traders' skills. If a trader cannot be successful in simulation mode with live market data, surely he will not succeed under the more strenuous conditions of having real money on the line.

A number of trading platforms and programs offer a "replay" mode that can serve as simulation-based learning for traders. By replaying challenging periods in the market, traders can observe mistakes that they made and correct them before the next day begins. That supercharges learning.

In my book Enhancing Trader Performance, I devote considerable space to the topic of simulation. My conclusion: "Research and experience suggest that the single most important investment you can make in your trading development is the acquisition of software that will allow you to develop your own training program and drill the skills that are central to your trading niche" (p. 100).

The great weakness of most "training" programs for traders is that they provide information, rather than develop skills. Information is necessary but not sufficient for the cultivation of expertise. Learning about chess or about surgery will not, in itself, create a chess champion or an elite surgeon. We can learn a great deal of information about football, but remain unable to master the game.

There is a very straightforward formula for success across performance fields: find the performance area that best matches your interests and talents; engage in structured practice under safe conditions to master the skills that are components of success; engage in realistic practice to assemble those components into actual simulated performances; and then tackle real-world performance situations with ongoing feedback and efforts at improvement.

Traders don't fail because they lack the right setups or because they weren't born with the right trading personality. Traders fail because they do not survive their learning curves: they put their capital at risk long before they have developed necessary skills and expertise. Simulation-based learning is a way to accelerate that curve and reduce the costs associated with the inevitable mistakes made by learners.

thank you!
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
(login for full post details)
  #160 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

It was just a matter of holding and trusting +ve market internals. Did not matter if one is trading TF,NQ, ES or YM. 11 am eastern time- when up march started. There were longs and longs. All one had to decide as to what size to put on and sit back.

As usual traders keep mucking it up by focusing on ticks when market is giving 10-18 points. If the move is 12 points and one is just happy with 60 ticks etc. it's no way to trade. Forget about "Trading in the Zone" you are not even on the pitch.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-04_2147_4_horses.png
Views:	78
Size:	180.7 KB
ID:	152478   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-04_2149_nyse.png
Views:	57
Size:	204.0 KB
ID:	152479  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #161 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


mfbreakout View Post
It was just a matter of holding and trusting +ve market internals. Did not matter if one is trading TF,NQ, ES or YM. 11 am eastern time- when up march started. There were longs and longs. All one had to decide as to what size to put on and sit back.

As usual traders keep mucking it up by focusing on ticks when market is giving 10-18 points. If the move is 12 points and one is just happy with 60 ticks etc. it's no way to trade. Forget about "Trading in the Zone" you are not even on the pitch.

it looks like those internals were getting hammered till 11am to me. what made you wait till then? also, what are your thoughts on CL today.

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
(login for full post details)
  #162 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


madLyfe View Post
it looks like those internals were getting hammered till 11am to me. what made you wait till then? also, what are your thoughts on CL today.


1) I did not see market internals getting hammered. There was divergence right from the open which is typical.

By divergence i mean reading of upvolume- down volume was side ways and reading of Advancing Issues - declining issues was -ve. When both of them in the same direction, we have ONE TIME FRAMING underway. More typical action is rotational like today's. TF ATR is around 12- 16 points. I typically wait for this kind of pullback and see if market internals makes sense to take a trade. It typically takes me 40 minutes of HOLD TIME to get paid on a trade, so i am in no rush to initiate a trade becuase i know i will have to hold it for 40 minutes or more to get paid.


2) CL - see attached chart.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-04_2309_CL.png
Views:	86
Size:	168.5 KB
ID:	152488  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #163 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


mfbreakout View Post
1) I did not see market internals getting hammered. There was divergence right from the open which is typical.

By divergence i mean reading of upvolume- down volume was side ways and reading of Advancing Issues - declining issues was -ve. When both of them in the same direction, we have ONE TIME FRAMING underway. More typical action is rotational like today's. TF ATR is around 12- 16 points. I typically wait for this kind of pullback and see if market internals makes sense to take a trade. It typically takes me 40 minutes of HOLD TIME to get paid on a trade, so i am in no rush to initiate a trade becuase i know i will have to hold it for 40 minutes or more to get paid.


2) CL - see attached chart.

how did you decide on where to take the A pullback? i mean obv the lowest part of the pullback near the ORH is the best place to get it, but not knowing that it was going to get there or not is the main issue.


dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
(login for full post details)
  #164 (permalink)
 silver99 
Market Wizard
Mineola, TX
 
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Dorman
Trading: CL & ES
 
silver99's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,532 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 3,649 given, 4,186 received

A few months ago I started reading and contributing to mfbreakout's closed thread in the Elite section. Mfbreakout helped me to understand ACD and MP methodology and how to determine the context of the market. Below are my trades today which are indicative of my consistent results now. I am very appreciative to mfbreakout and DCTrade69 for their advice, patience and willingness to answer my stupid questions while I learned.

My reason for posting this is to encourage others that you can become consistently profitable and gain confidence in your trading if you will put in the work necessary and learn from traders that are successful. I did it. Mfbreakout is a good person to follow and learn from.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	84NQ.png
Views:	97
Size:	885.4 KB
ID:	152490   Click image for larger version

Name:	84CL.png
Views:	79
Size:	751.0 KB
ID:	152491   Click image for larger version

Name:	84es.png
Views:	75
Size:	874.1 KB
ID:	152492  
Follow me on Twitter
The following 5 users say Thank You to silver99 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #165 (permalink)
 silver99 
Market Wizard
Mineola, TX
 
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Dorman
Trading: CL & ES
 
silver99's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,532 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 3,649 given, 4,186 received

MadLyfe,

CL was a confirmed A up on an open drive day. The PB to ORH was a logical entry spot to take a chance that this was the PB expected on a confirmed A up day. I didn't take the trade, although I was watching it at the time. My partner was long at .80 a few bars earlier. I was involved in other things and didn't get involved on that trade. Context and price action combined with an understanding of ACD is the key.

Follow me on Twitter
The following user says Thank You to silver99 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #166 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


madLyfe View Post
how did you decide on where to take the A pullback? i mean obv the lowest part of the pullback near the ORH is the best place to get it, but not knowing that it was going to get there or not is the main issue.



After A up confirmation- price pulling back to any area of OR ( 97.50 to 97.70) is the area to go long. I use 100 ticks stop loss ( disaster stop loss). price could have come to 97.30, 97.50 etc. I have no way of knowing where it will stop. I watch how price is behaving around an area and initiate a trade.

ONLY thing i am sure about is that after A up- it's rare to have C down, so i am taking longs off that premise. And if C down was confirmed with conviction, i would have shorted 97.30, 97.50 - it does not matter.

Key word being CONFIRMED WITH CONVICTION.

" ORH is the best place to get it, but not knowing that it was going to get there or not is the main issue."

There is no issue. If price does not get where you want- sit on hands.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #167 (permalink)
 Bsinks 
Wichita Falls TX/United States
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Soybeans, Crude, Natural Gas
 
Bsinks's Avatar
 
Posts: 82 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 37 given, 65 received


silver99 View Post
A few months ago I started reading and contributing to mfbreakout's closed thread in the Elite section. Mfbreakout helped me to understand ACD and MP methodology and how to determine the context of the market. Below are my trades today which are indicative of my consistent results now. I am very appreciative to mfbreakout and DCTrade69 for their advice, patience and willingness to answer my stupid questions while I learned.

My reason for posting this is to encourage others that you can become consistently profitable and gain confidence in your trading if you will put in the work necessary and learn from traders that are successful. I did it. Mfbreakout is a good person to follow and learn from.

I agree.......MFBreakout does have a lot to offer and he doesn't mind sharing.......my hat off to MFBreakout.

The following 2 users say Thank You to Bsinks for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #168 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Regardless how hard i try as to not to look at screen after a trade is initiated- it is difficult. I have tried many things- from taking a walk, walking away from computer, listening to music etc.

They all help. The most difficult part is when trade has nice gains and price is stuck. There is no pressure either of buyers or sellers. Sure price is moving up and down but that is immaterial.

For example, my short in ZS has nice gains. I have done morning walk. I have covered some based of ATR. However, I am little bit too excited due to gains. What to do?

I watch highlights of messi etc. After watching couple of these, excitement level comes down so that i am in proper state of mind for NY open.


Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-05_0808_short.png
Views:	61
Size:	201.6 KB
ID:	152498  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #169 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,492 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 49,155 given, 21,795 received


mfbreakout View Post
Regardless how hard i try as to not to look at screen after a trade is initiated- it is difficult. I have tried many thnings- from taking a walk, walking away from computer, listening to music etc.

I struggled with that this morning, in fact....

Bob

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #170 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

beans getting fried. Thinking about covering short.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-05_1002_fried.png
Views:	53
Size:	132.8 KB
ID:	152505  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #171 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

TF took away half the gain of ZS . CL it's doing her thing. Short 98.16 and holding. Beating in TF forced me to cover some in TF and CL.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-05_1021_orl.png
Views:	59
Size:	211.7 KB
ID:	152516  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #172 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

There is more to trading than just A up/A down, channels, bull flags etc.. I do not enjoy pain but some times there is no way of avoiding it.

Loss or Gains ONLY matters when they are booked. CL and ZS saved the day and TF a scratch after being on PAIN TRAIN. I am not advocating being on a PAIN TRAIN and getting scratch on a trade after 4 hours of JOY RIDE. Best one can hope is get a scratch trade or manageable loss on a rotational day. Getting out at 1127 etc per PAIN THERSHOLD would not have been not a good idea.

If nothing else lesson learned and noted. However, TF and entire market had to completely start ONE TIME FRAMING for me to cover short at highs etc. It's just one way of trading. I did not cover some at ORL this morning as i was expecting based on market internals for some more down move- something like 10 points would have been nice.

Rules call for to cover some at ORL and if break below ORL with conviction add to short. Basically, we had failed A down in front of -ve internals and a 15 points rotation back up. Pretty amazing that TF on a pullback just is stuck at ORH around 1118.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-05_1135_scratch.png
Views:	68
Size:	201.0 KB
ID:	152525  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #173 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


mfbreakout View Post
There is more to trading than just A up/A down, channels, bull flags etc.. I do not enjoy pain but some times there is no way of avoiding it.

Loss or Gains ONLY matters when they are booked. CL and ZS saved the day and TF a scratch after being on PAIN TRAIN. I am not advocating being on a PAIN TRAIN and getting scratch on a trade after 4 hours of JOY RIDE. Best one can hope is get a scratch trade or manageable loss on a rotational day. Getting out at 1127 etc per PAIN THERSHOLD would not have been not a good idea.

If nothing else lesson learned and noted. However, TF and entire market had to completely start ONE TIME FRAMING for me to cover short at highs etc. It's just one way of trading. I did not cover some at ORL this morning as i was expecting based on market internals for some more down move- something like 10 points would have bben nice.

Rules call for to cover some at ORL and if break below ORL with conviction add to short. Basically, we had failed A down in front of -ve internals and a 15 points rotation back up. Pretty amazing that TF on a pullback just is stuck at ORH around 1118.

this isnt a buy?


dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
(login for full post details)
  #174 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


madLyfe View Post
this isnt a buy?




Not for me. Not ideal conditions. $ strong, internals -ve- it's pretty high bar to clear for longs.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-05_1333_nyse.png
Views:	60
Size:	186.7 KB
ID:	152538  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #175 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
Trading: CL, TF, GC
 
madLyfe's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,644 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 9,220 given, 1,015 received


mfbreakout View Post
Not for me. Not ideal conditions. $ strong, internals -ve- it's pretty high bar to clear for longs.

ok ya, i can wrap my head around that. i guess i just dont understand your ORs or how they change on certain days. also why the internals are on a diff time frame than your charts. in time. i do enjoy following along though.

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
 
(login for full post details)
  #176 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

A loosing trade first becomes SCRATCH , covered some around 1119, held some, now it's GREEN. Tough way to make a living.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #177 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


madLyfe View Post
ok ya, i can wrap my head around that. i guess i just dont understand your ORs or how they change on certain days. also why the internals are on a diff time frame than your charts. in time. i do enjoy following along though.


I am not matching trading charts with internals chart. I am trading a premise/Context with some help from internals.

Intra day A up/A down has to be looked at with what's been happening on weekly A up/A down. Or lets put another way, if an instruement is weak based on number lines ( one does need those, one can just look at daily, weekly chart)
then intra day A up has less of a value.

OR is just one small component. Trying to trade based off A up/A down gives a trader 7% edge per Mr. Fisher and it's not enough to trade.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #178 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

I try not to trade between 2.15 to 2.30 eastern time due to binary options. Have 20 minutes left to see if there is another leg down. Don't ask me how binary options work. I just try to step aside.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-05_1354_CL.png
Views:	58
Size:	150.9 KB
ID:	152539  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #179 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


mfbreakout View Post
I try not to trade between 2.15 to 2.30 eastern time due to binary options. Have 20 minutes left to see if there is another leg down. Don't ask me how binary options work. I just try to step aside.


There were no longs for me in CL today. Out 97.19 before 2.15 pm.

Report card of our children. More the marrier. We never know which one will perform better than others.

1) ZS. Short and flat around ORL. Long off ORL but only 3 points on long side for 4 hours of song and dance. Holding some.

2) CL. Only shorts. Flat.

3) NG. No go. Flat.

4) TF. Pain train and then long time to turn around. Flat around ORL.

5) GC. No trade. Had set up for longs but being on PAIN TRAIN with TF, decided to pass plus NG, HG were not working, so it put a damper on GC long trade off 1284 area. Every trade required long HOLD time to get any where unless one is focused on ticks.

6) HG. Scratch.

Rest no set up, No trade.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #180 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Someone e-mailed me basically admiring management of TF trade. Thanks but it's not the ideal way to trade. I was trying to show PAIN TRAIN and what it takes to get out of it with some logic etc.

Trade eventually turned to be +ve for the day but it caused me to miss GC long trade and not trade CL with size.
Plus i could not hold all the contracts all the way to ORL. I have tried that in the past and have seen many times where TF will go back to days highs in front of-ve internals. Basically, that trade put me in a defensive mode. In other words watching all those soccerr videos this morning did not really CALM me down. It took 10 full points move against me to settle down and manage the trade.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #181 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

After all said and done- TF is least down on the day vs ES, NQ, YM. I should had this chart up during trading. I just assumed all 4 are in the same direction. They were but TF did some SONG and DANCE first.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-05_1609_tf.png
Views:	68
Size:	214.0 KB
ID:	152548  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #182 (permalink)
 DarkPoolTrading 
PTA, Gauteng
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Self built + Sierra + TWS
Trading: Stocks and Options
 
DarkPoolTrading's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,036 since May 2012
Thanks: 1,244 given, 1,321 received


mfbreakout View Post
As usual traders keep mucking it up by focusing on ticks when market is giving 10-18 points. If the move is 12 points and one is just happy with 60 ticks etc. it's no way to trade. Forget about "Trading in the Zone" you are not even on the pitch.

Hi,

I enjoy your comments from time to time regarding bigger targets and longer hold times. I am of the same mind and in my opinion win percentage should not be the focus, it should be R:R.

What is your general philosophy around being in a position to hold for the bigger moves? Is it a case of getting risk off as soon as is reasonably possible, after which just sit back and let the market do it's thing without worrying about every little wiggle in the market?

Interested to heard your thoughts.

Thanks.

Diversification is the only free lunch
Follow me on Twitter
The following 2 users say Thank You to DarkPoolTrading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #183 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


DarkPoolTrading View Post
Hi,

I enjoy your comments from time to time regarding bigger targets and longer hold times. I am of the same mind and in my opinion win percentage should not be the focus, it should be R:R.

What is your general philosophy around being in a position to hold for the bigger moves? Is it a case of getting risk off as soon as is reasonably possible, after which just sit back and let the market do it's thing without worrying about every little wiggle in the market?

Interested to heard your thoughts.

Thanks.


1) " Is it a case of getting risk off as soon as is reasonably possible, after which just sit back and let the market do it's thing without worrying about every little wiggle in the market?"

A) I started making adjustments in my trading when i started FANTASIZING as to how would i trade ( still day trade or holding a position for a day or two) if i had $10 million to trade. First thing which jumps out that it takes time to build a position. Second, there needs to be a high probability of a change. Third, i want minmium of 70% of ATR.
For example, if ATR for ZS is 10 points, i am targeting 7 points because i am taking quite a risk in terms of wide stop loss plus long hold time.

Decision one has to make as why one would trade differtently if one has 300K to trade or $10 million ( i do not buy into trading full time and making a living with 30 K etc trading accounts). My premise is that it should not be any different plus trader with 300K VS $10 million have advantages in terms of being nimble etc.

I try not to cover/taking risk off till i get paid for 70% of ATR. I also try not to hold beyond ATR unless i happen to catch a strong trend. In that case i will try to hold for couple of days.

Example: I was short copper yesterday at 3.21. I held it all day yesterday, HG remained in a very tight range and i flatten at the end of the day. During globex session news out of China, Germany and BOOM HG is down 1.5% in a slow but defined move. Now i have to wait becuase if i short after 1.5% down move ( even though HG may be down another 5% next week), my risk with stop loss increases plus i have not found a major macro event which tells me HG is in a strong down trend. Like all the instruements it's rotating and i have to wait for next opportunity in HG.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 7 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #184 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Swing traders VS Day Traders. Who makes the most. You know my answer. I am assuimg both day trader and swing trader have same amount of trading capital- Under $1 million. Someone managing $100 million etc can only swing trade and it's not the same as day trading with $ 1million. In this case size upto a point is benefical for day trading after that you either scalp via HFT or swing trade. My understanding is futures traders at first rate prop firms have line of $ 10 million and stock traders above $10 million and on for day trading. There are always exceptions.

1) Long CL 97.38. Out 97.86 ahead of DOE report.

2) Long Gold 1296 out 1307.

3) Long TF off ORL and out 1122. Now short TF for some normal pullback but trade of the day is over.

4) NG short. Scratch.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-06_1013_dow.png
Views:	51
Size:	271.9 KB
ID:	152589   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-06_0958_long.png
Views:	54
Size:	209.1 KB
ID:	152590  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #185 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

" Long TF off ORL and out 1122. Now short TF for some normal pullback but trade of the day is over."


Out of short. Sratch. Flat.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #186 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


mfbreakout View Post
" Long TF off ORL and out 1122. Now short TF for some normal pullback but trade of the day is over."


Out of short. Sratch. Flat.


Why i scratched the short?

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-06_1103_nyse.png
Views:	52
Size:	206.3 KB
ID:	152605  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #187 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

So Far Double The dose in CL. Remains to be seen if 3rd one pans out on longs from 97 area. I will be happy with 97.60 area. Small position as i would have liked a flush down to be confident in longs. Now it's a 50- 50 set up. It can just mander around and end up higher or flush down to new lows. Nice moves come across when they LURE in traders to blow them off. After all it's a video game till price gets out of weekly etc. balance. There may be several explanations as to why CL moved from 97.38 area to 98 this morning and then after DOE news 98.10 to 97- i just kkep it simple.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-06_1122_short.png
Views:	43
Size:	189.4 KB
ID:	152616  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #188 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

beans and wheat.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-06_1220_zs.png
Views:	40
Size:	85.1 KB
ID:	152617   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-06_1221_zw.png
Views:	39
Size:	74.7 KB
ID:	152618  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #189 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

" Small position as i would have liked a flush down to be confident in longs. Now it's a 50- 50 set up. It can just mander around and end up higher or flush down to new lows".

Flush down came. Added to long 96.72 but out 97.01. Basically scratch. Looking for shorts- if initiate a new trade. Ran out of time. Flush down close to 2.15 pm is not as desirable as one at 1 pm .

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #190 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

yesterday on a pullback to ORH in TF there were no takers. Today there seems to be some . Why? Look at internals.

Short TF 1127 and cover.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-06_1352_short_final.png
Views:	51
Size:	185.6 KB
ID:	152622  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #191 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

It helps to kkep an eye on different sectots.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-06_1452_xli.png
Views:	74
Size:	555.0 KB
ID:	152623  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #192 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

ZS, ZW, HG, NG, etc. They will be stuck at some area for hours and then BOOM. Typically it's best to trade from one side. Long or short. Why? because it takes days, hours and hours for set ups to line up. Why muck it up by being ahero from long and short on the same day. I have tried and it's just not worth it on most days.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-06_1506_ZS_long_opc.png
Views:	63
Size:	114.6 KB
ID:	152625  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #193 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Are we in a bullish trend, bearsih trend? Very strong arguments from both side. All i know around 9.45 am this morning there were shorts and shorts. One just had to HOLD the position for 30-40 minutes to get paid. If one can do that by looking at DOM, T&S , Level 11 for 40 minutes , more power to them.

I just wonder how long one can do that before becoimg cross eyed?

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-07_1207_stocks.png
Views:	50
Size:	294.5 KB
ID:	152689   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-07_1209_internals.png
Views:	62
Size:	230.0 KB
ID:	152690   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-07_1219_cross_eyed.png
Views:	43
Size:	150.7 KB
ID:	152693  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #194 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Not interested in longs in front of A down and -ve internals regardless of whatever support charts may show. I covered around 1117 due to ATR range. 1129 to 1115= 14 points. It took 2 hours of back and forth to get to 1121 from 1115 area and TF is back down to 1117. Maybe it's forming double bottom etc. but i give more wieght to what 500 stocks and different sectors of the market is doing vs double bottoms, levels etc. I more interested in shorts today based on what market is showing.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-07_1403_counter_trend.png
Views:	56
Size:	166.5 KB
ID:	152713  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #195 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

reshort TF

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-07_1443_internals.png
Views:	39
Size:	248.5 KB
ID:	152717  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #196 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Held corn short all day but turned out to be a scratch. NG nice moves but late to the move so only 1 car.

GC, CC, CT etc no trades. Basically TF made the day and counting.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-07_1311_NG.png
Views:	37
Size:	219.5 KB
ID:	152718  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #197 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

CL gave me more headaches today then she has in a long time. I basically ignored failed A downs all day and was in shorts all day. Loss within limits and still holding shorts.

Every time i ignore ACd and do something else- it reminds me RULES of the game.

Added to short 97.70. Trying to manage my way out of CL.

CONTEXT: My main reason for gettting bearish in CL last night is due to the fact that even with all the troubles in Russia/ Ukraine- CL continues to be very weak. Nothing new here. CL has been weak for 2 weeks now. Gold ha sjumped 3% in 2 days on the news but CL no bid. So, instead of sticking with my daily routine of trading ACD, i decided to test event driven trades and it has not worked out so far.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-07_1458_headache.png
Views:	46
Size:	169.8 KB
ID:	152719  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #198 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Since you mentioned a two week time period, I thought I'd drop a weekly chart in....I know you see this but perhaps others reading your thread do not have this kind of perspective.

This chart goes back to 8/14/2009...so 5 years worth

Moving average is the 50 period SMA...


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 3 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #199 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received

Well i followed ACD to the tee in TF. Where are buyers? Failed A up short, added to short and reshoretd bounce. Only 3 trades.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-08-07_1520_nobody_home.png
Views:	61
Size:	166.6 KB
ID:	152720  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #200 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,707 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Since you mentioned a two week time period, I thought I'd drop a weekly chart in....I know you see this but perhaps others reading your thread do not have this kind of perspective.

This chart goes back to 8/14/2009...so 5 years worth

Moving average is the 50 period SMA...




I did not look at weekly chart. What this chart is telling us? What does mid line means. How to trade this?

Thx

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:

Closed Thread

futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > COMMON SENSE


Last Updated on November 27, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing

NEW BlackBird Features + FOREX Support w/Jeremy Tang @ SharkIndicators

Elite only
 

Our 12-year anniversary w/ $$,$$$ prizes (check soon)

June
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts