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COMMON SENSE
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COMMON SENSE

  #181 (permalink)
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Four horses

After all said and done- TF is least down on the day vs ES, NQ, YM. I should had this chart up during trading. I just assumed all 4 are in the same direction. They were but TF did some SONG and DANCE first.

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COMMON SENSE-2014-08-05_1609_tf.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; August 5th, 2014 at 05:22 PM.
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  #182 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
As usual traders keep mucking it up by focusing on ticks when market is giving 10-18 points. If the move is 12 points and one is just happy with 60 ticks etc. it's no way to trade. Forget about "Trading in the Zone" you are not even on the pitch.

Hi,

I enjoy your comments from time to time regarding bigger targets and longer hold times. I am of the same mind and in my opinion win percentage should not be the focus, it should be R:R.

What is your general philosophy around being in a position to hold for the bigger moves? Is it a case of getting risk off as soon as is reasonably possible, after which just sit back and let the market do it's thing without worrying about every little wiggle in the market?

Interested to heard your thoughts.

Thanks.

Diversification is the only free lunch
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  #183 (permalink)
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Trading



DarkPoolTrading View Post
Hi,

I enjoy your comments from time to time regarding bigger targets and longer hold times. I am of the same mind and in my opinion win percentage should not be the focus, it should be R:R.

What is your general philosophy around being in a position to hold for the bigger moves? Is it a case of getting risk off as soon as is reasonably possible, after which just sit back and let the market do it's thing without worrying about every little wiggle in the market?

Interested to heard your thoughts.

Thanks.


1) " Is it a case of getting risk off as soon as is reasonably possible, after which just sit back and let the market do it's thing without worrying about every little wiggle in the market?"

A) I started making adjustments in my trading when i started FANTASIZING as to how would i trade ( still day trade or holding a position for a day or two) if i had $10 million to trade. First thing which jumps out that it takes time to build a position. Second, there needs to be a high probability of a change. Third, i want minmium of 70% of ATR.
For example, if ATR for ZS is 10 points, i am targeting 7 points because i am taking quite a risk in terms of wide stop loss plus long hold time.

Decision one has to make as why one would trade differtently if one has 300K to trade or $10 million ( i do not buy into trading full time and making a living with 30 K etc trading accounts). My premise is that it should not be any different plus trader with 300K VS $10 million have advantages in terms of being nimble etc.

I try not to cover/taking risk off till i get paid for 70% of ATR. I also try not to hold beyond ATR unless i happen to catch a strong trend. In that case i will try to hold for couple of days.

Example: I was short copper yesterday at 3.21. I held it all day yesterday, HG remained in a very tight range and i flatten at the end of the day. During globex session news out of China, Germany and BOOM HG is down 1.5% in a slow but defined move. Now i have to wait becuase if i short after 1.5% down move ( even though HG may be down another 5% next week), my risk with stop loss increases plus i have not found a major macro event which tells me HG is in a strong down trend. Like all the instruements it's rotating and i have to wait for next opportunity in HG.


Last edited by mfbreakout; August 7th, 2014 at 06:32 AM.
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  #184 (permalink)
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Who makes more

Swing traders VS Day Traders. Who makes the most. You know my answer. I am assuimg both day trader and swing trader have same amount of trading capital- Under $1 million. Someone managing $100 million etc can only swing trade and it's not the same as day trading with $ 1million. In this case size upto a point is benefical for day trading after that you either scalp via HFT or swing trade. My understanding is futures traders at first rate prop firms have line of $ 10 million and stock traders above $10 million and on for day trading. There are always exceptions.

1) Long CL 97.38. Out 97.86 ahead of DOE report.

2) Long Gold 1296 out 1307.

3) Long TF off ORL and out 1122. Now short TF for some normal pullback but trade of the day is over.

4) NG short. Scratch.

Attached Thumbnails
COMMON SENSE-2014-08-06_1013_dow.png   COMMON SENSE-2014-08-06_0958_long.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; August 6th, 2014 at 11:59 AM.
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  #185 (permalink)
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TF

" Long TF off ORL and out 1122. Now short TF for some normal pullback but trade of the day is over."


Out of short. Sratch. Flat.

 
  #186 (permalink)
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why not short


mfbreakout View Post
" Long TF off ORL and out 1122. Now short TF for some normal pullback but trade of the day is over."


Out of short. Sratch. Flat.


Why i scratched the short?

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COMMON SENSE-2014-08-06_1103_nyse.png  
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  #187 (permalink)
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Double dose

So Far Double The dose in CL. Remains to be seen if 3rd one pans out on longs from 97 area. I will be happy with 97.60 area. Small position as i would have liked a flush down to be confident in longs. Now it's a 50- 50 set up. It can just mander around and end up higher or flush down to new lows. Nice moves come across when they LURE in traders to blow them off. After all it's a video game till price gets out of weekly etc. balance. There may be several explanations as to why CL moved from 97.38 area to 98 this morning and then after DOE news 98.10 to 97- i just kkep it simple.

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COMMON SENSE-2014-08-06_1122_short.png  

Last edited by mfbreakout; August 6th, 2014 at 02:26 PM.
 
  #188 (permalink)
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longs

beans and wheat.

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COMMON SENSE-2014-08-06_1220_zs.png   COMMON SENSE-2014-08-06_1221_zw.png  
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  #189 (permalink)
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Flush down

" Small position as i would have liked a flush down to be confident in longs. Now it's a 50- 50 set up. It can just mander around and end up higher or flush down to new lows".

Flush down came. Added to long 96.72 but out 97.01. Basically scratch. Looking for shorts- if initiate a new trade. Ran out of time. Flush down close to 2.15 pm is not as desirable as one at 1 pm .


Last edited by mfbreakout; August 6th, 2014 at 03:39 PM.
 
  #190 (permalink)
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ORH


yesterday on a pullback to ORH in TF there were no takers. Today there seems to be some . Why? Look at internals.

Short TF 1127 and cover.

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