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COMMON SENSE
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COMMON SENSE

  #151 (permalink)
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moochers


alejo View Post
yes, it is really true, i am a moocher(garrapata), i want to learn and try to ask from the master traders, it is dificult to extract them, the problem that we dont sharing ideas is our knowledge/experiences is not comparable to yours, then is dificult and also i think it will not be usefull for you.
is like master/pupil relationship

thanks again for your posts

alejo

I think you misunderstood me or maybe i was not clear enough. To be a moocher bar is quite high and include

1) Following someone for years and never ever hitting a thanks tab. In my previous journal of around 560,000 views, i am aware of certain characters who been coming to my journal for years and never hitting thanks tab. It just makes me wonder about the person.

2) Not making any kind of contribution at futures.io (formerly BMT) forum whatsoever.

3) Troll around futures.io (formerly BMT) for years and worry about if it's woth spending $100 ( or whatever fee is) to support Mike efforts by becoimn Elite member.


Maintaing a journal requires lot of time and effort. Not everyone has time or as you said ready or feel comfortable. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. Lastly, do not feel you have nothing to contribute here or at futures.io (formerly BMT) in general. Everyone has something to share. futures.io (formerly BMT) has 100's of forums from picture of the day to song of the day and everything in between. If you start a journal and ask for help- i guarantee there will be plenty to help.


Last edited by mfbreakout; August 2nd, 2014 at 06:23 PM.
 
  #152 (permalink)
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trading


alejo View Post
yes, i am from the barca, also i was born in argentina, then i am Leo Messi fan

thank you for your quick answer

then the internal you use
plot the diference of the 2 internal indexes upvol les downvol and adv stock less decl stock
both nyse and nasdaq?

and when you refer to +ve, or -ve, what do you mean?

and teh last one... the A up ,A down setup, where can find info in your posts to understand what you explain about , they failed

thank you very much!
alejo


call your data provider/broker and ask for help regarding market internals and google for further explanation. Both NYSE and NASDAQ. For ACD- read Mark Fisher book. Following link provides intro.

ACD Method Intro

After you have basics of ACD under your belt and it appeals to you, you can read last month of posts from my previous journal

https://futures.io/elite-trading-journals/17308-trading-futures-context.html


Last edited by mfbreakout; August 2nd, 2014 at 06:24 PM.
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  #153 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
call your data provider/broker and ask for help regarding market internals and google for further explanation. Both NYSE and NASDAQ. For ACD- read Mark Fisher book. Following link provides intro.

what would be your mkt internals for things other than stock index futures like the CL, for example?

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
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  #154 (permalink)
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trading


madLyfe View Post
what would be your mkt internals for things other than stock index futures like the CL, for example?

There are no market internals for CL, Nat Gas etc. For CL DOE report on wednesday at 10.30 am eastern time is an indiactor. I have never looked at the report and no need to.

I watch as to how price behaves after the report. OR for that day is extended to 10.45 am eastern time. For me to be bullish on CL, it needs to trade above OR. If not , i short it on failed A up.
That's why i say it's easier to trade index futures when market internals line up.

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Last edited by mfbreakout; August 2nd, 2014 at 07:19 PM.
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  #155 (permalink)
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adiction


mfbreakout View Post
BY JupaFX.


The story of Mr. Not Average Joe

This is the real story of Not Average Joe. I had the opportunity, a few years back, of having a direct contact with this fellow, who was a successful former FX dealer that had also managed other people's money and had eventually settled for trading his own (immense) capital. Just to put things into perspective, his account was populated by over 250 thousand Euros. After all, he was Not Average Joe. He had demonstrated the capability to make money and work the FX markets for years on end. Now, in his late 40s, he was at home trading for himself from his 1 screen computer (a vision that many of us aspire to, no doubt).

The story is not about that he used to be profitable. As you can imagine, he was profitable because of his background and experience. He worked the USD desk, which was the most complex operation going. So he knew his way around the FX markets like few others did. However he did always say that he had to work a lot harder ever since he left the bank.

Mr. Not Average Joe had no trouble speaking of his trades. He took around 15-20 trades per day, and used a low amount of leverage per each trade. Each single position was a 1-lot position (100K). And this fellow was making around 3-4% per month. So he was successful. Very successful! But as time went by, I started understanding that he had a problem. Why was such a successful person always upset with the world (he was very negative in his world view and always referred to his gains as “peanuts”), and why was he not happy with his life?

I started to observe when he would answer my questions, and how long he would stay connected to Skype. It turns out that his habits were awkward. He was trading around-the-clock. He took some naps obviously but he could trade basically anywhere from 7AM in the morning to 3AM the next morning. This was the first tell-tail. He was evidently NOT working smart. He was working HARD. And he was not happy about it. Also, taking all that risk (20 trades/day is a LOT of market risk) and making 3-4% per month seemed questionable. He had a very high win rate – around 84% - so basically he could trade for less hours, adding a little more risk to each trade, and come out with the same %-return or even more. But he didn't.

Then I saw another pattern, that emerged from his comments and from his equity curve.


The pattern was always the same: he would be as consistent as a machine, trade away and then after a while make a bigger bet and wipe out a lot of gains. And then he started over. For some reason, he held onto losers because of his experience as a dealer, and would hedge them or rotate the position onto some other currency pair. For example, if he was long USDCAD and the market started going south, he would frequently hedge the problem. If it was an adverse USD-move, then he would sell USDCHF and hence transform the position into a short CADCHF. Other times, when he just didn't like the position, he would use the triangular relationships in FX to transfrom his position into something more interesting. For example he was long USDCAD and started to dislike the position over a period of hours, he might decide to rotate it into USDJPY by buying CADJPY.

So while he was good at what he did, he also had this inherent bias towards not taking a loss. He would rotate his position, rather than take a loss. When he DID take a loss, it was around 1.5 times his average gain. So obviously his profitability came from his insane hit rate. While he was profitable and he had been a professional trader for years, it's not really a good practice to hang your hat on a high win rate at the cost of much larger losses.

But despite all these technicalities, the worst part of Not Average Joe's trading habits was the recurrence of large hits. He would fight for weeks on end and then shift his thinking from a short term perspective to a more longer term swing, ultimately losing large sums. This of course was affecting his psyche. He would reduce his stake, take a couple of days off, and then come back and work his way back up the equity curve...until the next big hit. He was not able to control this self-destructing habit of his. When I inquired as to how he could let himself get into such a mess, he said that he had a natural habit of not respecting his risk parameters. This apparently “came from the days at the bank where I could hold onto positions for quite some time, because I knew that the market would come back sooner or later”. So you see, even experienced traders get caught in some of the bad habits that novice traders frequently display:

1) falling into the overconfidence trap: “I know it will go my way” mentality

2) holding onto lo losing propositions because they “fall into the swing category and not the scalping/short term trading category”.

3) Overestimating our capability to understand what's going on (sentiment/intermarket correlations)

4) incapacity to identify and eliminate bad habits

clip_image004

What eventually happened to Not Average Joe? He kept trading 16 hours a day...he had a wife that was not able to help him...he started running low on energy and finally got himself tangled up in a long USDCHF position that cost him 80% of his entire trading account. He still trades, but very small and very infrequently.

Not Average Joe had a sickness. He was not satisfied with his life, and with what he was doing. He was “hiding” inside his trading habits, because it made him feel like he was “doing the right thing, doing something useful”. But his habits eventually brought out the truth: he was unable to let go. He was unable to have fun with his accumulated capital and take his trading less seriously.

You can suffer even if you're winning


Mr. Not Average Joe had become addicted to his trading. He was hiding from real life, inside his trading endeavors. And yes, these things happen to skilled professionals as well as novice traders. As long as you have some sort of unresolved issue in your life, trading will bring it out. Trading will force you to face your inner demons.

What goes on in the brains and bodies of people like Not Average Joe (approximately 1 in 10 traders) who are addicted to trading? The researchers from UCLA Gambling Studies Program have gone in-depth and their insight is quite fascinating. Addicted traders feel the need to be in the markets at all times and feel the need to be trading. At one level, this is a type of addiction to excitement, mediated in part by a neurochemical called dopamine. It is the thrill of the game, and the rush that comes from the anticipation of reward. But a 2013 study from The Imperial College, London and the University of Cambridge has discovered that there's more than just dopamine involved. Dr. Tim Fong, Co-Director of the UCLA Gambling Studies Program says, “The brain of a pathological gambler is very different than that of a social gambler while they play," he said. "The neurotransmitters dopamine, serotonin and norepinephrine play an important role in all addictions. In pathological gamblers, certain dysfunctions are present prior to addiction, and put people at higher risk of developing such behavior.”

MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging) scans show areas of the brain that activate or “light up” when a person believes he or she is about to get a monetary reward. There is a social stigma around money. It may, in fact, be the last great taboo of our culture. People will tell you everything about the most intimate details of their lives, but they will not tell you about their money: How much they have. How much they want. What they think about others who have more or less money than they do. What money really means to them.

Traders and others suffering from addiction are sick because of their secrets. In order to conceal their secrets, they lie and deny. But the brain can’t lie when it is placed in an MRI Scan. The brain images tell secrets that the addict can't or won’t express. Money is the biggest secret of all. It’s more secret than drugs or alcohol. People have more emotions of shame, guilt, greed and lust around money than perhaps any other singular thing.

clip_image006The-importance-of-information-in-Selling-shares

What is he doing? He might be hiding from his secrets or from reality, behind all these screens...

And so it goes. Traders boot up their computers, turn on their trading platforms and become hypnotized by the flickering ticks. Each tick of the market represents the sum total of the greed and fear of every single one of the millions of people trading at that time. We also know that the majority of people that are attracted to the “game” look for certainty and “excuses” to get active in the market through Technical Analysis. We go through great lengths, at Orderflowtrading, to stop people from putting their faith into some magic lines.

Sure, technical analysis sounds good and looks professional when you plot all sorts of things on your chart that give you “confidence through confluence,” but what are we really trying to understand when we look at a chart? It's merely human emotions plotted on a grid.

A trip through greed and fear

Here's how it happens. You turn on your computer, and first thing look at your charts. You stare at them, you zoom in, zoom out, add/remove indicators until you see it. An opportunity! "I have to get in right now, because the price is running away from me. If I just chase it just this one time, it should be OK because I see the price going up, and I am convinced that I can make a killing on this one. Why should I wait for the pullback? Maybe it won't pullback at all, and then I will have missed it. "

Your dopamine brain pathways, activated by potential for reward, kick into high gear. The dopamine neurons are firing on all cylinders. It's all good and wonderful—until it isn't. Suddenly, the position starts to turn against you. Drawdown is loss. Loss hurts. The brain registers losses 2.5 times more intensely than it feels gains. Chasing caused pain, and now the pain is financial, physical and psychological. Now what?

The dopamine and other reward pathways of the brain shut down, and the brain connections that mediate fear begin to activate. This is your emotional volatility. The end result is confusion, frustration, blaming, self-sabotage, addiction and systemic toxicity. All of these drain the trader and leave him feeling empty, confused, disillusioned and just plain worn out.

Losing makes people physically ill. A study by Joseph Engelberg and Christopher Parsons from the University of California at San Diego showed that a one-day drop in equities of approximately 1.5% is followed by a 0.26% increase in hospital admissions on average over the next two days. Additionally, the impact on psychiatric conditions such as anxiety or panic disorders is even stronger, with hospital admissions nearly doubling in one day. Losing money makes people sick and sick people even sicker!

But addicts – even successful ones like Mr.Not Average Joe - don’t know when to stop trading. They lie to themselves, cheat, and steal to do this. Eventually, they fail. And it’s a whole lot more than money. It’s psychological, physical, emotional and spiritual. They are lost and floundering. When a trader is stressed, sleep-deprived, contaminated with continual worrisome thoughts or in a toxic state because of bad trades, there is nothing but despair, self-loathing, anger or depression.

Even if we assume that traders do not have more frequent addictive behaviors than the general population, the statistics tell us that, in all likelihood, nearly one trader in every ten has a diagnosable addictive problem.

- for those that have attention deficits → trading provides action and you can buy a dozen screens;

- for those who cannot tolerate boredom → trading provides action;

- for the trader who is depressed (like Not Average Joe) → trading can provide an escape from the self and a sense of immediate gratification.

Such traders need to trade and keep trading whether they have an edge or not. They frequently lose their money, generate failure experiences for themselves, and create hardships for their families.

What to do?
For those that have an addiction to trading – for whatever reason - it's not about "discipline" and following trading rules anymore. It's about getting their lives back, getting the right kind of help. If you see any aspect of yourself in this portrait, do the right thing. For you, and also for those who love you. Trading should expand your control and self-mastery, not become an instrument for its destruction.


To sum up: people hardly ever talk about the negative impact that trading can have on you. Trading can become a way to escape from reality; trading can turn into the ultimate tool with which to channel personal problems. It's not always easy to understand whether this is the case or not, because it happens to profitable traders as well as losing traders. Here is where it's good to have some sort of confrontation, whether with a spouse/partner or with a support group like fellow traders on our Trading Floor. If you lose contact with society/reality, then it's much easier to lose yourself in the markets. Keeping in touch with loved ones and/or with fellow traders can help you identify personal issues if they may arise – but only if you're totally honest with yourself.

Good Luck!

i am idendified with this, and i write in my journal that i stop to trade because i realize of this behavior and close account and stop, i think in april
now i am reassuming the learning process more part time
i was wodering if this time will be different.
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #156 (permalink)
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madrid spain
 
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mfbreakout View Post
call your data provider/broker and ask for help regarding market internals and google for further explanation. Both NYSE and NASDAQ. For ACD- read Mark Fisher book. Following link provides intro.

ACD Method Intro

After you have basics of ACD under your belt and it appeals to you, you can read last month of posts from my previous journal

https://futures.io/elite-trading-journals/17308-trading-futures-context.html

thank you i will do
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
 
  #157 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
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Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,240 received

Trading

" am idendified with this, and i write in my journal that i stop to trade because i realize of this behavior and close account and stop, i think in april
now i am reassuming the learning process more part time
i was wodering if this time will be different.
alejo"


In my previous post where i shared market internals for 2 different days. One for longs and one for shorts. If you make a RULE that you will only trade with trend and once direction is clear you will notice the difference.

Most of the days it just noise and it requires a different set of skills to trade nose. I know certain traders who only trades when direction is clear and they do very well. This way one has less trading= less stress= more profits.

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  #158 (permalink)
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How to survive the learning curve

Couple of years ago, i was trying to work with some traders in terms of how i use Simulation in Supercharging learning. None of them could sustain intensity, dedication of my training sessions. Considering that i already had 2 years ahead start on them in terms of learning, it just amazed me that they will not commit to practice sessions. Traders who were good with programing, back testing etc were especially not interested in practice sessions. They will just run back testing and come back every day thinking they can trade. Based on their own feedback they still are struggling. To be fair it seems one of the main reason they could not practice was due to lack of free time after they were done whatever else they wer doing to earn a living.



By Brett Steebarger

Training Traders: The Role of Simulation in Supercharging Learning
A recent research report suggests that computer simulations can be as effective as direct observation in education. Simulations have long been used in medical education to help students learn the skills of physicians. Simulations are also standard in training airline pilots and in preparing for war scenarios. By trying out moves against a computer, developing chess players can work on various aspects of their game.

When I directed a training program for new traders at a prop firm, we found that simulated trading using live market data was especially helpful in preparing traders for shifting market conditions, dealing with uncertainty and risk, and making rapid decisions. Interestingly, we also found that when simulations were graded and reviewed by an instructor, they also incorporated some of the performance pressure faced during actual trading. If a trader knows that he has to sustain profitability in simulation mode before trading live, the simulation begins to simulate the emotional elements of trading.

Simulation, however, entails several advantages over live trading for training purposes:

1) Simulation allows traders to make mistakes and try out tactics without losing money early in their developmental processes;

2) Simulation allows for more focused learning, as traders can replay aspects of the day to rehearse trading under specific conditions;

3) Simulation provides standardization in learning, as trading days can be archived and traders can practice trading specific kinds of market conditions from the archives;

4) Simulation enables traders to get more learning into a day's period than would be possible during live trading, as many days' worth of experience can be concentrated into a single training day.

5) Simulation offers an objective test of traders' skills. If a trader cannot be successful in simulation mode with live market data, surely he will not succeed under the more strenuous conditions of having real money on the line.

A number of trading platforms and programs offer a "replay" mode that can serve as simulation-based learning for traders. By replaying challenging periods in the market, traders can observe mistakes that they made and correct them before the next day begins. That supercharges learning.

In my book Enhancing Trader Performance, I devote considerable space to the topic of simulation. My conclusion: "Research and experience suggest that the single most important investment you can make in your trading development is the acquisition of software that will allow you to develop your own training program and drill the skills that are central to your trading niche" (p. 100).

The great weakness of most "training" programs for traders is that they provide information, rather than develop skills. Information is necessary but not sufficient for the cultivation of expertise. Learning about chess or about surgery will not, in itself, create a chess champion or an elite surgeon. We can learn a great deal of information about football, but remain unable to master the game.

There is a very straightforward formula for success across performance fields: find the performance area that best matches your interests and talents; engage in structured practice under safe conditions to master the skills that are components of success; engage in realistic practice to assemble those components into actual simulated performances; and then tackle real-world performance situations with ongoing feedback and efforts at improvement.

Traders don't fail because they lack the right setups or because they weren't born with the right trading personality. Traders fail because they do not survive their learning curves: they put their capital at risk long before they have developed necessary skills and expertise. Simulation-based learning is a way to accelerate that curve and reduce the costs associated with the inevitable mistakes made by learners.


Last edited by mfbreakout; August 3rd, 2014 at 09:26 AM.
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  #159 (permalink)
Elite Member
madrid spain
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
Favorite Futures: None.
 
alejo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 16,557 given, 643 received


mfbreakout View Post
Couple of years ago, i was trying to work with some traders in terms of how i use Simulation in Supercharging learning. None of them could sustain intensity, dedication of my training sessions. Considering that i already had 2 years ahead start on them in terms of learning, it just amazed me that they will not commit to practice sessions. Traders who were good with programing, back testing etc were especially not interested in practice sessions. They will just run back testing and come back every day thinking they can trade. Based on their own feedback they still are struggling. To be fair it seems one of the main reason they could not practice was due to lack of free time after they were done whatever else they wer doing to earn a living.



By Brett Steebarger

Training Traders: The Role of Simulation in Supercharging Learning
A recent research report suggests that computer simulations can be as effective as direct observation in education. Simulations have long been used in medical education to help students learn the skills of physicians. Simulations are also standard in training airline pilots and in preparing for war scenarios. By trying out moves against a computer, developing chess players can work on various aspects of their game.

When I directed a training program for new traders at a prop firm, we found that simulated trading using live market data was especially helpful in preparing traders for shifting market conditions, dealing with uncertainty and risk, and making rapid decisions. Interestingly, we also found that when simulations were graded and reviewed by an instructor, they also incorporated some of the performance pressure faced during actual trading. If a trader knows that he has to sustain profitability in simulation mode before trading live, the simulation begins to simulate the emotional elements of trading.

Simulation, however, entails several advantages over live trading for training purposes:

1) Simulation allows traders to make mistakes and try out tactics without losing money early in their developmental processes;

2) Simulation allows for more focused learning, as traders can replay aspects of the day to rehearse trading under specific conditions;

3) Simulation provides standardization in learning, as trading days can be archived and traders can practice trading specific kinds of market conditions from the archives;

4) Simulation enables traders to get more learning into a day's period than would be possible during live trading, as many days' worth of experience can be concentrated into a single training day.

5) Simulation offers an objective test of traders' skills. If a trader cannot be successful in simulation mode with live market data, surely he will not succeed under the more strenuous conditions of having real money on the line.

A number of trading platforms and programs offer a "replay" mode that can serve as simulation-based learning for traders. By replaying challenging periods in the market, traders can observe mistakes that they made and correct them before the next day begins. That supercharges learning.

In my book Enhancing Trader Performance, I devote considerable space to the topic of simulation. My conclusion: "Research and experience suggest that the single most important investment you can make in your trading development is the acquisition of software that will allow you to develop your own training program and drill the skills that are central to your trading niche" (p. 100).

The great weakness of most "training" programs for traders is that they provide information, rather than develop skills. Information is necessary but not sufficient for the cultivation of expertise. Learning about chess or about surgery will not, in itself, create a chess champion or an elite surgeon. We can learn a great deal of information about football, but remain unable to master the game.

There is a very straightforward formula for success across performance fields: find the performance area that best matches your interests and talents; engage in structured practice under safe conditions to master the skills that are components of success; engage in realistic practice to assemble those components into actual simulated performances; and then tackle real-world performance situations with ongoing feedback and efforts at improvement.

Traders don't fail because they lack the right setups or because they weren't born with the right trading personality. Traders fail because they do not survive their learning curves: they put their capital at risk long before they have developed necessary skills and expertise. Simulation-based learning is a way to accelerate that curve and reduce the costs associated with the inevitable mistakes made by learners.

thank you!
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
 
  #160 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Favorite Futures: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,240 received

Trading


It was just a matter of holding and trusting +ve market internals. Did not matter if one is trading TF,NQ, ES or YM. 11 am eastern time- when up march started. There were longs and longs. All one had to decide as to what size to put on and sit back.

As usual traders keep mucking it up by focusing on ticks when market is giving 10-18 points. If the move is 12 points and one is just happy with 60 ticks etc. it's no way to trade. Forget about "Trading in the Zone" you are not even on the pitch.

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Last edited by mfbreakout; August 4th, 2014 at 11:42 PM.
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