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COMMON SENSE

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  #1201 (permalink)
 Surly 
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The globex rally last night took us right to the 20 EMA on the daily chart. First time we've touched the 20 EMA since October 1st. Only reason I care about this is that is graphically represents change in the supply/demand for oil on the higher timeframe. Buyers are beginning to get stronger, sellers are still in control but their grip may be weakening.

These are early signs - we'll have to wait for the weekly chart to pullback to the low 80's and then perhaps a retest of the mid-70's before really declaring this bear trend over.

This area does make sense as a place for big traders to take some profits and for long term longs to step in. Looking at the weekly chart we are at the bottom of a multi-year range.

Combined with the contract going back into contango, I am open to the possibility that we will see a bounce over the next 1-3 weeks and a possible reversal on the weekly chart over the next month or so.

daily:




Weekly:




Of course, this is all just conjecture. It is way too early to tell if any kind of reversal is happening. But its good to be aware of what is possible on the higher timeframes while we place good trades on the timeframe we are trading.

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 mfbreakout 
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Cover most 76.50 area and still hloding shorts. No longs for me till FLUSH down shows up. Picking longs within macro bearsih trend set up BAR is very high. CL can drop another 100 ticks in a NY minute and if she gets stuck in a box- get your scalps from long side and RUN. Serious buying or monetum is tough to hide, for example during Euro session this morning. Till then it's just guessing based upon 2 candles up and one down etc.


Added to shorts 76.40 area and there she goes. Anyone who got too comfortable with his longs during euro session with some pie in the sky bullish bias- is STUNNED. Feels like this is the flush down to this morning CRIME SCENE to try long. Still waiting for evidence to try long, otherwise holding some shorts. OPEC output cuts announcement in the upcoming meeting plus as shared by Surly CL cantago can put a fire under CL to the upside.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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We get all kinds of crazy headlines related to crude

" Crude Pares Gain as China Rate Cut Not Seen Erasing Glut" , " Iran Vows to Guard Oil-Market Share as OPEC to Review Output" and " Russia to Cooperate With Saudis on Oil, Avoiding Output Cuts".

I wonder if China rate cut had an impact on Crude how come it pulled back 100 ticks during Asaiin session?

2 key variables which can put a firm bid under crude are following;

OPEC output cuts announcement in the upcoming Nov. 27th meeting plus as shared by Surly CL cantago .



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 ness1g 
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My new trading approach made simple.
Any instrument any time of the day

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 mfbreakout 
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My new trading approach made simple.
Any instrument any time of the day

Sounds great. Look forward to your trades in other instruements also.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Triple the Fun. I wish multiple time frame line up more often.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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It's hard to believe but the way CL consolidated around 75.50 area and the way she closed- if it was not a weekend, i would have held some longs for a test of 78 and beyond.

it's good we have weekned on hand. Time to clean up the slate and start fresh on Monday.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Macro perspective.


GOLDMAN: Here Are The 10 Big Market Stories That'll Dominate 2015

AKIN OYEDELE


3. The new oil order

Pixabay via Google Images
Lower oil prices (a 5% - 15% deflation) will linger and provide a boost for consumers' disposable income. But this may be a headwind for energy stocks, and commodities like copper and aluminum that use oil in their production.

"The disinflationary impulse from lower commodity prices sweeping across the world is likely to be manifested first in lower headline inflation rates," the analysts explained. "But, by boosting disposable income, there is also likely to be a positive impact on GDP growth in EM and DM oil importers that should become visible as the year progresses."

Source: Goldman Sachs


How i plan to use it: All it means whenever catalyst for price spikes cools off- short with confidence. Try to differentiate between real buying vs price spikes to lure traders in before pulling the rug- which is the most common tactics of traders with deep pockets and macro perspective.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Gold, Euro, Japenese Yen and Aussie $- mostly shortable into bounces as 2014 catalyst are poised to hold into 2015.

Per GS 2015 game plan.

" Labor market slack, evidenced by low wage inflation, will persist, and disinflation risks will force other central banks to act, as core inflation remains below their targets.
"We think the response to that kind of risk, where it emerges, is likely to be a powerful force in markets," the analysts wrote.

"The ECB is already moving along its path towards credit easing. And while we see the ECB as more reluctant to embrace sovereign QE in our central case, we think a clearer shift towards a more negative scenario would ultimately trigger a more aggressive QE program than the market expects."

"The dollar will remain strong versus its G10 peers and most emerging markets, with EUR/$ at 1.15 and $/JPY at 130 by the end of 2015.

"Within that view, continued declines in the EUR/$ rate are the single most important element, but we expect further meaningful weakness in the JPY as well," the analysts wrote.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Every day out of 10 trading instruements 2-3 A+ trading set ups line up. It takes 30 minutes over the weekend to look at weekly, daily, intra day charts and get ready for the upcoming week.

1) Holding shorts in CC since last 3 days. Covered some on Friday.

Most profitable trades over last week based upon number of contracts traded, hold time, risk;

a) Nat gas shorts.

b) Gold shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Will Gold gives heads up?

" Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Michael Hartnett think that market psychology has shifted "from fear to greed, from the wall of worry to the beginning of hubris."

And as the market begins to get more confidence, to display more hubris, the "tell" that we might be at a top will be found in the price of gold.

"[T]he big hubristic 'tell' will be gold," Hartnett wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "A sudden gap lower in the gold price to below $1,000/oz should coincide with the final thrust higher in stocks, both indicating capitulation of the 'stubborn bears,' the end of the 'melt-up' and the next opportunity to get tactically bearish. We increasingly fear next year's high in stocks come early."

NOTE: 1) By market Michael must mean S&P 500 because TF is ONLY up 0.8% YTD.

2) Gold is around $1200. Higher it goes as Inflation stays low- bigger the short.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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ONLY thing i am somewhat concerned about shorts in Gold is that i have not been able to find too many cases for Gold bulls. When everything seems perfect it can surprise the other way. Once upcoming swiss refrendaum on her gold reseves policy is out of the way by end of November- it will be easier to press shorts in gold.

Wish for next week: My weekend wish for Gold is to bounce 20-30 points before NY open on Monday without any catalyst/news, just slow back and forth easy move up. In fact i have the same wish for every other instruement under macro bearish trend because it's tough to short a DULL market. I will be happy with 2-3 of these during next 4 trading days we have with Thursday being a holiday. There are hardly any easy lay up trades so will have to work at it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Not a very encouraging message for day traders like myself. " Markets are not predicitable enough and you are not smart enough. Get out. Get out while you can". I am glad to see that 90% of all trading is technical.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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It's hard to believe but the way CL consolidated around 75.50 area and the way she closed- if it was not a weekend, i would have held some longs for a test of 78 and beyond.

it's good we have weekned on hand. Time to clean up the slate and start fresh on Monday.


1) Long CL 76.45 area. Out some 76.82.

2) Short PL 1225 raea.

3) Short KC 191.90 area.

4) Short CC 2832 area since last week.

5) Long NG on gap down during asian session.

Scaling off once an instruement has moved 50% or more of daily ATR. Small position size till NY session open.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Pick macro trend from weekly/daily chart. Intraday multiple time frame for execution.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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When Multiple time frame don't line up- scalp is the best hope.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Timing a trade.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Bayes Theorem- applies to everything in life. There are lot of videos on you tube about it. I like following the most. It fits my coommon sense sensibilities.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Pick macro trend from weekly/daily chart. Intraday multiple time frame for execution.

CC found buyers at weekly balance area. Long 2807 and out 2835 .Flat. Will wait for price to come up more to short with high of weekly range as stop loss.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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CC found buyers at weekly balance area. Long 2807 and out 2835 .Flat. Will wait for price to come up more to short with high of weekly range as stop loss.

short 2874 area. stop loss above 2900 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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short 2874 area. stop loss above 2900 area.

Cover some 2840 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I did not get bounce in PL to my liking but direction is clear. Bigger the bounce= Bigger position size. For typical ATR bounce i use smaller position size becuase it requires long HOLD time with usual SONG and DANCE in between. I add to shorts if an instruement bounces more after my short entry.

It's easier to pick direction but it's tough to pick exact location.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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KC gave a massive rip up to short but i was already short and down $4. Around 4%.


NOTE: KC have been on a massive up trend all year long. For last 2 months there is no clear trend except massive up and down moves.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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KC gave a massive rip up to short but i was already short and down $4. Around 4%.

KC been getting roasted since hitting 197.50. Out some 193.60. She will attempts to make new highs, do back and forth till enough longs are lured in or shorts. Don't even think about trading KC, CC, PL etc with cute little stop loss unless you like to get hosed. Instead of worrying about whether 800 ticks chart or some renko bars etc. is best to use, may be it will help to spend some time on " Bayes Rule".

Crude oil, NG , GC are better instruements for defined risk.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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KC been getting roasted since hitting 197.50. Out some 193.60. She will attempts to make new highs, do back and forth till enough longs are lured in or shorts. Don't even think about trading KC, CC, PL etc with cute little stop loss unless you like to get hosed. Instead of worrying about whether 800 ticks chart or some renko bars etc. is best to use, may be it will help to spend some time on " Bayes Theorem".

I was not surprised by the up move but i am surprised at the SPEED of $7 pullback. Out flat 190.50.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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If any one traded crude please post your set ups. It will be nice to see what someone else was looking at.

For me it was a scratch day in CL. NG, PL, CC, KC, TF were nice trades for me. NG and TF long only. CC, KC, PL shorts only.

Holding some longs in NG and shorts in CC.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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hello mfbreakout...i only had 1 trade today as i am busy with other things, but here is the set up for 34 ticks x2 cars.
It is not the best set up, and it is very short term of only 34 Ticks....13 minutes in trade $680....i could have traded
many other set ups today , but we are busy with Holiday prep.

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 mfbreakout 
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Short 6A. Another example of me sitting in front of computer and trying to look at pips in the name of control, risk management, order flow etc. would have been utterly useless and most definetely get me out of a trade much earlier. Out most of the cars around 8525 on short from .8596 area during Asian session open. Pick up macro trend- it's obvious to even the most novice trader- trade with the trend and put stop loss away from noise. I use ATR for visual purposes and place stop loss way above 1 or 4 hour ATR. In these charts it looks like magic as to how price stayed below ATR etc. but i can show 100 other cases where it did not and after SONG and DANCE still pulled back after going above ATR etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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NG has given massive trades over last 2 weeks but without any 1:1 or 1:3 risk rewards trades as far i can see. I am short from 4.27 area with ideal target around 4 area. My stop loss is above 4.60 area It should be above $5 area but 4.60 is all i can handle for this trade. I will not hold all of the cars till $4 area- it's just an area and NG does not have to go there before bouncing all the way to my entry etc.

I am risking more to make less? Weird math to say the least but it works for me. Staying away from noise becomes even more important when markets are slow. When market is active it's little bit easier to define risk in relation to reward.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Short Silver from 16.67 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Do not get me wrong, i do not like to take rsik more than i need to. Overall approach to stop loss is as Selena Gomez sings

" Come and Get it". The algos, market makers and all the crooks sitting at banks will have to come and get my stop. CC got roasted this morning. Ou flat around ORL.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Shorts and shorts in CL. This thing is going down- feels like it. We are never sure. We do not count.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 Drd13 
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Good morning,

Any idea why oil just exploded to the downside?

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 mfbreakout 
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Good morning,

Any idea why oil just exploded to the downside?

I do not know. I was short and added to it. As traders we do not need to know the reasons. We just need to trade and figure out reasons later. I am sure beauties at CNBC will give some color on it. Main point is do not even think about going long till FLUSH down reversal comes.



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 Surly 
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Good morning,

Any idea why oil just exploded to the downside?

Like MFB says - doesn't matter, just don't fade it. OPEC meeting Thursday so all the delegates are in Vienna and so rumors are going to be flying all week so stuff like this will likely keep happening.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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 mfbreakout 
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Shorts and shorts in CL. This thing is going down- feels like it. We are never sure. We do not count.

In one of his webinars I heard Mark Fisher said that he would routinely go for a walk around the block after putting on a position ( if it was too much to handle etc.. ) I heard this 3 years ago and now i walk around when THIRD FORCE shows up in the market.

Without that there is no way to sit still and not mess up a trade. With prices moving at the SPEED OF LIGHT and a trader going by some target ( who is to say target area will get hit) i find it practically impossible to let the trade work if i just sit at my desk.

Cover most 74.40 area and still holding some shorts. CL will give plenty of time to decide if it makes sense to cover all the shorts. It will move back and forth. Question always is if she is she consoildating to get a bounce or next leg down. Without FLUSH down reversal i always assume NEXT leg down.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Waiting for the Monkey to climb higher.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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In one of his webinars I heard Mark Fisher said that he would routinely go for a walk around the block after putting on a position ( if it was too much to handle etc.. ) I heard this 3 years ago and now i walk around when THIRD FORCE shows up in the market.

Without that there is no way to sit still and not mess up a trade. With prices moving at the SPEED OF LIGHT and a trader going by some target ( who is to say target area will get hit) i find it practically impossible to let the trade work if i just sit at my desk.

Cover most 74.40 area and still holding some shorts. CL will give plenty of time to decide if it makes sense to cover all the shorts. It will move back and forth. Question always is if she is she consoildating to get a bounce or next leg down. Without FLUSH down reversal i always assume NEXT leg down.


No need to rush out of shorts on a whim. She gave plenty of time to decide. Out flat 74.30. Please do not go down anymore without a bounce of 60-90 ticks, so that we can press shorts one more time.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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No need to rush out of shorts on a whim. She gave plenty of time to decide. Out flat 74.30. Please do not go down anymore without a bounce of 60-90 ticks, so that we can press shorts one more time.

Thank you CL. Re short Short 74.94. Looks like we will be in a BOX- 74 to 75.50 area till something new comes along. It does not looks like that 74 level will be broken today and if it ges broken with conviction- next leg down.



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 mfbreakout 
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NG has given massive trades over last 2 weeks but without any 1:1 or 1:3 risk rewards trades as far i can see. I am short from 4.27 area with ideal target around 4 area. My stop loss is above 4.60 area It should be above $5 area but 4.60 is all i can handle for this trade. I will not hold all of the cars till $4 area- it's just an area and NG does not have to go there before bouncing all the way to my entry etc.

I am risking more to make less? Weird math to say the least but it works for me. Staying away from noise becomes even more important when markets are slow. When market is active it's little bit easier to define risk in relation to reward.

NG slowly did her thing off ORL and up 2%. Extreme cold weather to hit NY and east Coast. NG found a bid and up and up.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Thank you CL. Re short Short 74.94. Looks like we will be in a BOX- 74 to 75.50 area till something new comes along. It does not looks like that 74 level will be broken today and if it ges broken with conviction- next leg down.

Covered shorts around 74.35 area. Tried longs around 74.25 area into close but no buyers showed up. Scratched and reshort. This has POTENTIAL to get real ugly. Shorting into the hole so relatively small position size and tight stop loss.
I am not sure if API report at 4.30 pm this evening will have impact on CL. CL seems to reacting to different news coming out of upcoming OPEC meeting on Thursday.



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 mfbreakout 
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Short Silver from 16.67 area.


Damn Silver was stuck within OR all day. Holding some shorts. Thank GOD i do not look at trades tick for tick after i place my stop loss- it will drive me nuts. I moved the stop loss lower from original stop loss in case it spikes up as she has been consolidating at highs for days.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Will be looking for shorts in ZS, PL, KC,PA, NG, SI tomorrow and upcoming days. If we get lucky and get rapid fire up moves in any of these instruements it will be easier to short with defined risk. We ONLY need one A+ set up.

Without that it gets tricky and requires more patience and much wider stop loss.



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 mfbreakout 
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Covered shorts around 74.35 area. Tried longs around 74.25 area into close but no buyers showed up. Scratched and reshort. This has POTENTIAL to get real ugly. Shorting into the hole so relatively small position size and tight stop loss.
I am not sure if API report at 4.30 pm this evening will have impact on CL. CL seems to reacting to different news coming out of upcoming OPEC meeting on Thursday.


So far CL did not fall off the cliff during Globex session as i was expecting. Looks like she may stay in a tight range till something new comes out. Another statement like following and down fall will continue. I will fade any bounce unless buyers/algos get turned on with conviction. Still holding shorts.

" Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said tumbling crude prices will stabilize and there’s no need for producing nations to cut output.
No one should cut and market will stabilize itself,” Ali Al-Naimi told reporters a day before OPEC meets in Vienna. “Why Saudi Arabia should cut? The U.S. is a big producer too now. Should they cut?”



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 mfbreakout 
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Will be looking for shorts in ZS, PL, KC,PA, NG, SI tomorrow and upcoming days. If we get lucky and get rapid fire up moves in any of these instruements it will be easier to short with defined risk. We ONLY need one A+ set up.

Without that it gets tricky and requires more patience and much wider stop loss.


1) short PL around 1224.40 area. Cover some. Will add to shorts if momentum to the down side picks up.

2) Short KC around 194 area.

3) Added to shorts in NG around 4.40.

4) Holding shorts in GC around 1199 area.

5) Holding shorts in SI arouound 16.68 area.

6) Holding shorts in CL around 74.22 area. Small position size.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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" If we get lucky and get rapid fire up moves in any of these instruements it will be easier to short with defined risk. We ONLY need one A+ set up.

Without that it gets tricky and requires more patience and much wider stop loss."

None of the instruements moved in quick upthurst moves and thus pullbacks are taking their time. KC had a nice pullback of $2. KC ATR is around $4. I will take 50% of ATR. Out some 192.90.

NG moved up slowly all day yesterday off ORL as did KC and ZS.



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 mfbreakout 
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1) short PL around 1224.40 area. Cover some. Will add to shorts if momentum to the down side picks up.

2) Short KC around 194 area.

3) Added to shorts in NG around 4.40.

4) Holding shorts in GC around 1199 area.

5) Holding shorts in SI arouound 16.68 area.

6) Holding shorts in CL around 74.22 area. Small position size.


NG,GC, SI scratch and flat. CL covered around 73.45 area and waiting for DOE report. KC covered around 192 flat.



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 mfbreakout 
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NG,GC, SI scratch and flat. CL covered around 73.45 area and waiting for DOE report. KC covered around 192 flat.

Can not short at ORL and can not go long at ORH. CL is stuck within OR. Sitting on hands. Looks like next round of fireworks are not in the cards till OPEC is done with their meeting tomorrow.



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 ness1g 
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mfbreakout View Post
1) short PL around 1224.40 area. Cover some. Will add to shorts if momentum to the down side picks up.

2) Short KC around 194 area.

3) Added to shorts in NG around 4.40.

4) Holding shorts in GC around 1199 area.

5) Holding shorts in SI arouound 16.68 area.

6) Holding shorts in CL around 74.22 area. Small position size.

I like to thank you for sharing your positions from time to time.

Thanks,
Ness1g

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 mfbreakout 
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Please come up- we are waiting for you.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Swiss refrendum on Nov. 30th regarding her GOLD reserves policy is the CATALYST for next leg up or down. Most traders think that approval of new reserve policy is a low probability event. We know what happens when something which is not expected does happen.



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 mfbreakout 
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Can not short at ORL and can not go long at ORH. CL is stuck within OR. Sitting on hands. Looks like next round of fireworks are not in the cards till OPEC is done with their meeting tomorrow.

If one can not go long at ORH area then next step is to see if shorts makes sense. Short 74.20 but turned out to be a 30 ticks scalp after 2 hours of song and dance. Holding a small short position to see if there is some more juice to the down side.

Also short NG. Wide stop loss. Everytime i tried to be cute with stop loss based off some indicator i downloaded from some wizard or had a special one - the one written exclusively for me- THE ONE- i got hosed. I just try to use stop loss where probabilty of getting stopped out is low. That's all one can do.

NOTE: $4 target for NG is not for today. It's the ideal target to hit at some point. We all know we do not get ideal targets or get ideal anything very seldom.



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 mfbreakout 
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If one can not go long at ORH area then next step is to see if shorts makes sense. Short 74.20 but turned out to be a 30 ticks scalp after 2 hours of song and dance. Holding a small short position to see if there is some more juice to the down side.

Also short NG. Wide stop loss. Everytime i tried to be cute with stop loss based off some indicator i downloaded from some wizard or had a special one - the one written exclusively for me- THE ONE- i got hosed. I just try to use stop loss where probabilty of getting stopped out is low. That's all one can do.

NOTE: $4 target for NG is not for today. It's the ideal target to hit at some point. We all know we do not get ideal targets or get ideal anything very seldom.


I have been looking for shorts since yesterday. Shorted small position yesterday and added to short this morning. But after one hour scratched the trade as NG was stuck in a tight range.

Reshorted again this after noon around the same area where i was short from this morning and after usual back and forth- NG drops 1%. Out 4.34 area with small position left from the short side.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
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2 of the biggest upcoming trading set ups will be in CL and GC. CL on OPEC news and GC on Swiss government gold reserve policy. Look forward to trading CL and GC in coming days.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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It was just matter of time. I was surprised when 73 did not break during NY session. Cover some around 72.80 on shorts from 73.70 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Metals complex getting hit hard. Short PL, GC and SI. 2.29% down move in Silver is massive.

" GC, SI scratch and flat". Was short GC, SI during NY session this morning and had to scratch the trades as they were just stuck in a tight range.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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It was just matter of time. I was surprised when 73 did not break during NY session. Cover some around 72.80 on shorts from 73.70 area.

reshort during Euro session as selling continues. Every time i short it feels like Crude will rip 200 ticks on my face but she does the opposite and drops 200 ticks. The fear of rip up is out of pending news but the price action is down and down.

When the rip back up comes, it will be obvious to everyone. We will not have to guess.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Closing of the Journal:

Time has come to close my 2nd journal. First journal lasted much longer and continued under 2 different names till last year.
It started out with a title " Trading Crude Oil without indicators". In this journal i traded Crude Oil every day for more than 2 years. I focused on 30 ticks target with 10-15 ticks stop loss. After a year or so, i changed the name of the journal to " Trading futures with context" after i realized that context is most important indicator in trading. I was still focused mainly on day trading crude.

During the course of my first journal i met some traders at futures.io (formerly BMT) and from other forums- who made me started thinking about trading other instruements besides Crude Oil with wide stop loss to trade with the trend. I had been thinking about this for some time as i started realizing that my Mikey Mouse trading approach will not work over the course of my trading career. It's not that my first approach was not profitable. It was just damn too HARD to compete against algos day in and day out. The moment i realized that i was trying to compete within Algos arena, i gave up my so called Mikey Mouse trades. It was not an easy transition but once it got underway there was no looking back. Now instead of jamming trades with CL every day with 2 steps forward and one step back dance, i look for trades within 4-6 trading instruements every day. I have not even started in Forex universe yet. If there is one area where it definetly pays to hold trades it is forex universe.

I will start a SWING trading journal as i get my set ups line up. Plus i will try to outline as to how macro driven events as a catalyst are helpful to use as a timing tool. Mark Douglas quote sums up holy grail of trading for me "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING". How a trader achieves totally care free state of mind is an area where all the time and energies should be used.

I want to thank BigMike for providing a professional platform to share/learn. Thanks to all the traders who have followed my journal and made me a better trader.

Good Luck.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 Trader Jeff 
Chicago, IL United States
 
Experience: Advanced
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Very inspiring post. Thank you for sharing.

I am an ES Trader and I enjoy reading and researching successful traders in the same industry.


mfbreakout View Post
I will post articles, thoughts, notes, charts, pictures from other traders, coaches whom i respect and have myself
tested whatever idea, trading set up etc. i learned from these wonderful members of trading community.

I will encourage other members of futures.io (formerly BMT) community to post they feel like worth sharing.
To kick off- here is one from Brett Steenbarger " A Visit with World Class Trader".


I follow Brett Steenbarger. He has coached or observed 100's of traders at very high quality prop. firms.

Follwoing write up from him shows many things. One thing which stands out that
in a professional enviornment - making 20% a year return is EXCELLENT.

Traders trying to make a living while trading full time on 30K, 50Ketc, paying retail
comission , having restrictions like overall day wininng of 55% or more, profit target
of $9000 ( on 150k funded account) , max draw down of $4500, 10 day duration etc.
have no chance. As usual there are ALWAYS EXCEPTIONS.

This does not mean TST program does not have merits for traders to check what's
it's like before juming into trading full time. Traders doining combine 5 times, 7 times
and on and on- have no clue. It will make more sense if they do what Marc
Greenspoon does everyday. With technology available now, it's much easier and
cheaper to record ones trading day Vs keep throwing money at TST. I have to
admitt TST guys are good traders- they have set up a system where they have all
the upside and ZERO downside. Now that's an EXCELLENT trade.


" Marc Greenspoon: A Visit With A World-Class Trader" Brett posted this in his blog in 2007.

In past posts, I have tried to describe the qualities that I have observed among very successful traders. I've also attempted to outline specific steps that traders can take to make themselves more successful. In this post, let's make the discussion more concrete by taking you inside one of my visits with a trader I consider to be among the best in the world.

The name Marc Greenspoon won't be familiar to you unless you've read my book Enhancing Trader Performance. He doesn't speak at conference events or advertise himself as a guru. What he does do is trade every day of the week, average between 50 and 100 trades per day in the equity indexes, and make millions of dollars a year. Not just one year or two years, but year after year. He doesn't trade with a mechanical system, and he doesn't trade with quantitative research. Nor does he manage a portfolio. He trades with his mouse and his computer, accounting for several percent of the day's total volume all by himself.

I'm grateful to Marc for giving me permission to write this about him, because it illustrates the sheer level of skill needed to be a great trader. Imagine the commissions of trading so frequently, even given the lower commissions available to a trader at a firm that is an exchange member. Imagine how the slippage adds up over the course of, say, 80 trades in a day. Now realize that Marc's profits are after the costs of paying for his overhead at Kingstree Trading, his trading firm, after all the slippage, and after all the commissions. He would be a fine trader simply by trading that often and breaking even at the end of a year! To make millions of dollars a year, year after year, trading that frequently makes it transparently clear that markets are not random.

Marc called me on Friday and asked, "What are you doing today?" He wanted to set up a meeting. Friday didn't work, but Margie and I had plans to be in Chicago on Saturday, I told him; we could meet then while markets were closed. Sure enough, Marc was up early Saturday morning to greet us.

What did he want to meet about? He wanted to review his first quarter performance and set goals and take specific steps to improve during the second quarter. Not that his first quarter was bad. He made a significant amount of money, certainly in keeping with his past earnings.

But he knows he can do better.

That's one of Marc's defining features. He's not just an expert trader; he's a continually improving trader.

Marc studies himself as diligently as he studies markets. His daily journals, religiously kept, go back years in notebooks that are always at his side. Sometimes he illustrates a point for me by going back to an entry in last year's notebook. He knows the entries--and the markets--that well that he can jump back months and find exactly what he's looking for.

Similarly, Marc keeps a large TV monitor and recording device in his office. He records his trading day by capturing everything on his trading screen, and then he archives each day for reference. The screen shows how the market was trading at the time, where he placed his orders, and where he entered and exited trades. At times Marc will get excited and go back to one of the recordings to show me a specific moment in a specific day's trading. He knows the market so well--and his own trading--that he selects the right day and fast forwards to the right spot in the tape.

Quite simply, he's reviewed so many more of his performances than other traders that he's learned more than others. He is a one-man study in implicit learning. And it's all driven by his desire to improve.

Also by his side are small dictation devices. Marc records his thoughts about his trading and then plays the tapes for review. Many of the tapes focus on what he needs to do to make himself better. He never trades better than when he is thoroughly disgusted with his own performance. Listening to his first tape, my first thought goes to Coach Bob Knight--another professional who hates losing and is driven to win.

Indeed, there is similarity between Marc and Coach Knight. Both are aggressive competitors who wear their emotions on their sleeves. Both are generous to a fault and inspire both admiration and loyalty. And, yes, both can push the envelope too far in frustration and sheer determination. If non-emotionality were a necessary ingredient of trading success, Marc would have gone belly up long ago.

But Marc succeeds for two other reasons:

1) He knows that winning is guaranteed to no one. Look at it this way: let's conservatively say Marc trades 60 times per day with an average of 400 contracts per trade. That's 24,000 contracts per day. It's also about 6,000,000 contracts per year. Do the math: if he makes several million dollars in a year, his edge is far less than a single tick of profit per contract per trade. That razor thin edge, replicated many times, is what makes him a success. It is like the razor thin edge of a NASCAR champion, battling with his pit crew for every fraction of a second. All it takes is a small flip to turn that small positive expectancy into a small negative one and put a trader like Marc into severe drawdown. Marc knows that. That's why he calls me. That's why he keeps recordings and journals. He works as hard on himself as on his trading. Indeed, for Marc, those are one and the same.

2) He has the support of a superior organization. To use one of Marc's phrases, he has "balls" when he trades. But that is, in part, because he has a boss who has the brass ones. Chuck McElveen, also featured in my book, makes it a point to develop large, successful traders. If you don't have a goal of making a very solid six or seven figures a year, Kingstree isn't interested in you. (Of course, if you don't have a track record of success with smaller size, Kingstree isn't going to enable you to trade thousand lots in the ES contract. Indeed, you wouldn't even get hired.) But once a trader is successful at one level, Chuck encourages a raising of size. A trader like Marc can take risks because Chuck can take risks. As a firm owner, he understands that you only learn to take risks by taking risks. You only learn to trade large by growing your size.

Marc is living proof that you don't need a huge edge to be successful, but certain factors are necessary for success. You do need to have an edge; you need the consistency to replicate that edge; you need the drive to continually adapt to changing market conditions; and you need enough capital. I have never met a successful trader who makes money by doubling his or her money every year. The successful traders start with meaningful capital and earn a respectable, but reasonable return upon it. Their success is measured in their consistency, not in their ability to make occasional big scores. The small trader who tries to make millions is forced to take undue risk by trading imprudent size. When the inevitable strings of losing trades occur--as they do for the greats--the account cannot weather such drawdowns.

If you have the drive of a Marc Greenspoon to trade tick by tick every day, review markets in video, keep journals and audio recordings, and sustain a learning curve, just focus on sustaining profitability. Don't try to develop a mad edge. Instead, sustain the edge you have and then seek out those organizations that will bankroll your success. Marc is a constant reminder for me of what can be accomplished with determination and skill. For that I am both grateful and proud.


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 jthom 
Sydney / Australia
 
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Its been a pleasure reading your insight everyday. Thank you.
Look forward to more.

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 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
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Looks like due to holiday it will take Big Mike day or two to close down this journal. In the mean time we got OPEC gift. A gift which keeps on giving. Traders are talking about 63 as next area of support- whatever that means.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING to all. My wife can not understand as to what i am doing in my office on a day when markets are closed.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 jthom 
Sydney / Australia
 
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haha. The one day I don't trade, OIL drops $5. oh well.
Was instead with my GF at the Pandora Jewelry store buying EVERYTHING for her.
haha, so I know what you mean!

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 mfbreakout 
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jthom View Post
haha. The one day I don't trade, OIL drops $5. oh well.
Was instead with my GF at the Pandora Jewelry store buying EVERYTHING for her.
haha, so I know what you mean!

Your priorities are straight which is the most important thing.

There is lot more trading left on the day and upcoming days. CL bounces from 67.75 to 69.30 area. What's the # 1 RULE for a day like today?

Rule #1 Short 100+ ticks bounces.

I covered my shorts around 78 and reshorted 69.30 area per rule #1. Covered some 78.70 and added to shorts as CL bounced from 68.70 to 69.50 area. CL will buzz around in a 50-80 ticks range. The longer it buzz around in a tight range it will give signal to me that 67.75 is PROBABLY low of the day.

I may not make 100 ticks on this short but worst case scenario is it will be a scratch. Key point is one can not get worried if position goes against ones trade. The higher it bounces, bigger position size i will add. It's just a matter of time before it pulls back to give trader a chance to scale out etc. A bounce is a GIFT from trading GODS. A bearish trend suddenly does not becomes a bullish trend just because something bounced 100+ ticks.

NOTE: I did not short exactly at 79.30. There are no exact levels . I started shorting 78.80 and kept adding. Average price on this new short is 69.40.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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