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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

  #121 (permalink)
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screens

Someone asked me how many instruements i trade.

Currently, i actively trade CL, RB and TF. Monitor a bunch and trade them when set up comes up. For every instruement set ups are the same. I do not trade Forex.
I am hoping someone will have a journal regarding forex i can follow.

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  #122 (permalink)
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CL

Shorts and shorts.

1) 1st short was during euro session. Flat before 8.30 news

2) Once OR gor formed. short 97.74 and out 97.21.

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  #123 (permalink)
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TF


late to the party but direction is clear. Looking at anything which moves fast like DOM, so called order flow etc is detemential to ones trading IMHO. Someone texted me that TF has a big support around 1110 etc.

I said thanks but no thanks and shorted right there.

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  #124 (permalink)
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BADA BING

BADA BING.

Imagine coming up every day with 10 levels and scenarios for each instruement, drawing channels, triangles, counting candles etc and day trading?

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  #125 (permalink)
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matrix

Set ups and method have to be same across the board. It helps with execution. If majority of the time every trading instruement rotates within a rnage- it should be easy to trade. It can be unless we muck it up with analysis paralysis etc.

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  #126 (permalink)
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matrix

It should not take more than 30 minutes to come up with a game plan for the day.

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  #127 (permalink)
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It should not take more than 30 minutes to come up with a game plan for the day.

Very interesting chart

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  #128 (permalink)
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Trading

Following is from a trader ( i do not know the person). I am using this as an example because i went through this for a long time. It is a well written post and reminded me of my struggles . This is not the entire post. Key point which stood out to me is " 10 ticks profit goal" and need to stay within very stricit rules/guidelines.

For a discretionary trader it's a NO, NO. Why? because one is competing with computers. One is trading randomness.
No matter how discipline one is, no matter what kind of plans one has- one can not trade noise as a discretionary trader. Sizing up a trade, adjusting to market conditions etc. are all hallmark of a discretionary trader. The trader wants to act like a machine.

If one wants to act like a machine, one should develop an automated system and trade for 5 ticks, 10 ticks etc. all day long and all night long. This require all the capabilities of competing automated systems in the market to beat them. If one has resources to do that- all good.

Note: I am not implying that automated trading systems can only produce 5 ticks etc.



"So my current challenge is a variation on a theme of not 'sticking to my plan'. Rather than not sticking to my plan through frustration of it not working or boredom (which have happened in the past!) this time I have not stuck to my plan due to over-confidence and feelings of invincibility. For some time now I have had a daily target of 10 ticks and daily stop loss of 15 ticks. During July I traded very well sticking to my plan religiously but what I found was the overconfidence/ego thing started to creep into my psyche. With hindsight I can look back now and realise it was happening slowly every day incrementally. I had a long streak of winning days, I am not going to say how many but it was long. Part of my plan was to shut down my trading platform once my daily target was done, the reason for this is I like to preserve mental energy for another day. Sometimes it takes me 30 mins to hit my daily target other times 4 hours. On Wednesday of this week I decided to continue trading past my +10 ticks daily target. My mindset at the time was, 'I have only been trading 90 minutes' I am leaving so many ticks on the table here, I will just take prime set ups and push for more ticks'. This was going off plan. I went on to make +20 ticks for the day, twice my daily target. Driving home I felt invincible, I started to think about sizing up next week and what I would spend the extra money on. With hindsight I can now see how this was a marker for what was to come.

Tuesday - I was very tired, I had to be up at 5.30am to get the car to the garage, plus I was distracted the night before. So with hindsight my decision making abilities were not 100% even though I thought they were fine.

My first trade showed me a good profit of +6 ticks however for some reason I hesitated, I didn't take it and scratched it. Second trade at one point showed me +6 ticks, again I didn't take and ended up taking a -3 (!wtf!). At this point I am looking back in my journal and thinking, what the hell is going on I could have taken +5 on both these trades and have completed my daily target, platform shut down. But no. 3rd trade - great entry and I took a -4 loser, nothing wrong with this trade, just didn't pan out and I took the loser according to plan.

This is where in hindsight I got really pi55ed off with myself, I was riled and my decision making ability was impaired. i was -7 ticks on the day when I could have had my daily target complete. 4th trade was a good entry but I managed it badly and took a -5. I am now at -12 ticks for the day and pi55ed. With hindsight I should have shut down and ended there booking a -12 tick on the day. Coming off the back of a long streak of +10 tick days and a +20 tick day the day before a -12 tick day is fine in the grand scheme of things.

Then came trade number 5. I know I wasn't thinking straight as I cant even remember why I entered, my journal just says, 'poor entry', 'badly managed'. I ended up taking a -21 tick loser. wtf. wth. I finished the day on -33 ticks in absolute disgust. I had just wiped the majority of this weeks gains out.my daily stop loss of 15 ticks went out the window, why did I ignore this? ignore 15 why ignore 20 ticks. A 20 tick loss on the day would have been bad but not a disaster but -33 ticks wtf."


Last edited by mfbreakout; August 2nd, 2014 at 12:58 PM.
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  #129 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Following is from a trader ( i do not know the person). Key point which stood out to me is " 10 ticks profit goal".
For a discretionary trader it's a NO, NO. Why? because one is competing with computers. One is trading randomness.
No matter how discipline one is, no matter what kind of plans one has- one can not trade noise as a discretionary trader. Sizing up a trade, adjusting to market conditions etc. are all hallmark of a discretionary trader. The trader seems to act like a machine.

If one wants to act like a machine, one should develop an automated system and trade for 5 ticks, 10 ticks etc. all day long and all night long. This require all the capabilities of competing automated systems in the market to beat them. If one has resources to do that- all good.

Note: I am not implying that automated trading systems can only produce 5 ticks etc.



"So my current challenge is a variation on a theme of not 'sticking to my plan'. Rather than not sticking to my plan through frustration of it not working or boredom (which have happened in the past!) this time I have not stuck to my plan due to over-confidence and feelings of invincibility. For some time now I have had a daily target of 10 ticks and daily stop loss of 15 ticks. During July I traded very well sticking to my plan religiously but what I found was the overconfidence/ego thing started to creep into my psyche. With hindsight I can look back now and realise it was happening slowly every day incrementally. I had a long streak of winning days, I am not going to say how many but it was long. Part of my plan was to shut down my trading platform once my daily target was done, the reason for this is I like to preserve mental energy for another day. Sometimes it takes me 30 mins to hit my daily target other times 4 hours. On Wednesday of this week I decided to continue trading past my +10 ticks daily target. My mindset at the time was, 'I have only been trading 90 minutes' I am leaving so many ticks on the table here, I will just take prime set ups and push for more ticks'. This was going off plan. I went on to make +20 ticks for the day, twice my daily target. Driving home I felt invincible, I started to think about sizing up next week and what I would spend the extra money on. With hindsight I can now see how this was a marker for what was to come.

Tuesday - I was very tired, I had to be up at 5.30am to get the car to the garage, plus I was distracted the night before. So with hindsight my decision making abilities were not 100% even though I thought they were fine.

My first trade showed me a good profit of +6 ticks however for some reason I hesitated, I didn't take it and scratched it. Second trade at one point showed me +6 ticks, again I didn't take and ended up taking a -3 (!wtf!). At this point I am looking back in my journal and thinking, what the hell is going on I could have taken +5 on both these trades and have completed my daily target, platform shut down. But no. 3rd trade - great entry and I took a -4 loser, nothing wrong with this trade, just didn't pan out and I took the loser according to plan.

This is where in hindsight I got really pi55ed off with myself, I was riled and my decision making ability was impaired. i was -7 ticks on the day when I could have had my daily target complete. 4th trade was a good entry but I managed it badly and took a -5. I am now at -12 ticks for the day and pi55ed. With hindsight I should have shut down and ended there booking a -12 tick on the day. Coming off the back of a long streak of +10 tick days and a +20 tick day the day before a -12 tick day is fine in the grand scheme of things.

Then came trade number 5. I know I wasn't thinking straight as I cant even remember why I entered, my journal just says, 'poor entry', 'badly managed'. I ended up taking a -21 tick loser. wtf. wth. I finished the day on -33 ticks in absolute disgust. I had just wiped the majority of this weeks gains out.my daily stop loss of 15 ticks went out the window, why did I ignore this? ignore 15 why ignore 20 ticks. A 20 tick loss on the day would have been bad but not a disaster but -33 ticks wtf."

This is really a great point. I see people scalping for like 4 ticks a trade, and sure, there are some who can do it, and apparently consistently, and some are even live when they do it (which is not the same as playing sim at all.) But, for the most part, I think it really is going up against the machines, who are simply going to do it better than you, whoever you may be.

There's also the psychological side of trading, which you have but the machines do not. Looks like this trader got sunk by that, when his trading went off the rails and he tried to make back losses instead of stopping.

These really small trades are just too tricky for me, and you have to be very, very accurate, while the market just has to twitch a little to make you wrong and in a loss.

That's the way it seems to me, anyway. Again, a great point.

Bob.

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  #130 (permalink)
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Trading


Hi Bobwest,

Good observation. I will like to touch upon on this notion of " stop trading".

" Looks like this trader got sunk by that, when his trading went off the rails and he tried to make back losses instead of stopping."

When premise of a trading method/approach is wrong putting on restrictions like stopping has no chance in the long term. It's in human nature to improve. We start with 10 ticks, move onto 30 ticks, start seeing day trading what it is and move on to bigger targets/goals.

Traders who do not understand this keep blaming themselves for not being disciplined, breaking the rules and on and on. One can be trading successfully, for example, for a 10 ticks daily goal for months and in subconsious will start feeling as to what kind of moron he is that day after day he is stuck with the same routine, same approach etc.

Humans are designed to evolve. If one has built entire trading experience against human nature ( a.ka. trading like a machine)- sooner or later human nature will take over and BAM.
Such traders should focus on automated systems. Automated systems are constantly tweaked, enhanced, adjusted etc and thus take care of their creators inherent desire/need to improve and evolve.

Question a trader has to ask as to how he/she wants to take care of this need? Discretionary traders take care of this by constantly improving, adjusting vs acting like a machine.
Automated/Systems traders take care of this need by improving,tweaking their systems.

Problem with the trader in the previous post is that he is going against his own very nature by trying to act like a machine.

NOTE: I am not implying that we do not need RULES. Rules based on market structure/context have a chance. Rules based on ones equity size, how much one can afford to loose has no chance in the long term. If one can not afford to participate in the trading game per market structure/context because stop loss is too wide, risk is too much etc. then one is not ready to play the game. This is a very long debate and what is market structure and what kind of risk one should take per market structure is the HOLY GRAIL of trading.


Last edited by mfbreakout; August 2nd, 2014 at 12:30 PM.
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