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COMMON SENSE


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Updated November 27th 2014 by mfbreakout
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COMMON SENSE

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  #1211 (permalink)
BOSTON, MA
 
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Will Gold gives heads up?

" Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Michael Hartnett think that market psychology has shifted "from fear to greed, from the wall of worry to the beginning of hubris."

And as the market begins to get more confidence, to display more hubris, the "tell" that we might be at a top will be found in the price of gold.

"[T]he big hubristic 'tell' will be gold," Hartnett wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "A sudden gap lower in the gold price to below $1,000/oz should coincide with the final thrust higher in stocks, both indicating capitulation of the 'stubborn bears,' the end of the 'melt-up' and the next opportunity to get tactically bearish. We increasingly fear next year's high in stocks come early."

NOTE: 1) By market Michael must mean S&P 500 because TF is ONLY up 0.8% YTD.

2) Gold is around $1200. Higher it goes as Inflation stays low- bigger the short.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1212 (permalink)
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ONLY thing i am somewhat concerned about shorts in Gold is that i have not been able to find too many cases for Gold bulls. When everything seems perfect it can surprise the other way. Once upcoming swiss refrendaum on her gold reseves policy is out of the way by end of November- it will be easier to press shorts in gold.

Wish for next week: My weekend wish for Gold is to bounce 20-30 points before NY open on Monday without any catalyst/news, just slow back and forth easy move up. In fact i have the same wish for every other instruement under macro bearish trend because it's tough to short a DULL market. I will be happy with 2-3 of these during next 4 trading days we have with Thursday being a holiday. There are hardly any easy lay up trades so will have to work at it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1213 (permalink)
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Not a very encouraging message for day traders like myself. " Markets are not predicitable enough and you are not smart enough. Get out. Get out while you can". I am glad to see that 90% of all trading is technical.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1214 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
It's hard to believe but the way CL consolidated around 75.50 area and the way she closed- if it was not a weekend, i would have held some longs for a test of 78 and beyond.

it's good we have weekned on hand. Time to clean up the slate and start fresh on Monday.


1) Long CL 76.45 area. Out some 76.82.

2) Short PL 1225 raea.

3) Short KC 191.90 area.

4) Short CC 2832 area since last week.

5) Long NG on gap down during asian session.

Scaling off once an instruement has moved 50% or more of daily ATR. Small position size till NY session open.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1215 (permalink)
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Pick macro trend from weekly/daily chart. Intraday multiple time frame for execution.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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When Multiple time frame don't line up- scalp is the best hope.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1217 (permalink)
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Timing a trade.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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Bayes Theorem- applies to everything in life. There are lot of videos on you tube about it. I like following the most. It fits my coommon sense sensibilities.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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mfbreakout View Post
Pick macro trend from weekly/daily chart. Intraday multiple time frame for execution.

CC found buyers at weekly balance area. Long 2807 and out 2835 .Flat. Will wait for price to come up more to short with high of weekly range as stop loss.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1220 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
CC found buyers at weekly balance area. Long 2807 and out 2835 .Flat. Will wait for price to come up more to short with high of weekly range as stop loss.

short 2874 area. stop loss above 2900 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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November 27, 2014


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