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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #111 (permalink)
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  #112 (permalink)
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This is for East Coast Trader. Always try to think about what kind of buying it will take to turn this ship around. Price stalling and moving up 2-4 points in between have no VALUE. Everytime TF, NQ etc. comes up for AIR it gets pushed down. Looking at so called order flow is one of the most determential things one can do on days like today.

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  #113 (permalink)
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How to develop patience? Trade Gold, NG , ZS etc. It's amazing how these instruements teach patience if taken a wrong set up, wrong context etc. In my experience these things are highly dependent on major macro shift to make moves.

If i did not trade TF today and focused on GC, CL - it would have been an unforgettable day. Well finally got paid in CL. Damn TOS got frozen. Time to call help desk or reboot. It has only happened couple of times in 4 years.

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  #114 (permalink)
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NG- took counter trend trades as NG never gave a decent long opportunity after 10.30 am nat gas news.

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  #115 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
How to develop patience? Trade Gold, NG , ZS etc. It's amazing how these instruements teach patience if taken a wrong set up, wrong context etc. In my experience these things are highly dependent on major macro shift to make moves.

If i did not trade TF today and focused on GC, CL - it would have been an unforgettable day. Well finally got paid in CL. Damn TOS got frozen. Time to call help desk or reboot. It has only happened couple of times in 4 years.


Well GC also paid some. Cover some 1183. Flat.

CL cover 98.17. Flat. CL seems to be setting up for another leg down/Flush down. So, no longs for me unless REAL buying shows up.

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  #116 (permalink)
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Do not get confused with allure of buyers present especially when we have daily, weekly A downs.

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  #117 (permalink)
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Nothing builds confidence more than trading with the trend even if the day turns out to be a looser. Similalry, nothing erodes confidence more than being on the wrong side of the trend even if some how one manges a scalp or two on a day when TF is down 28 points, ES down 40 points etc.

Luckliy someone made me understand this a while back. Out flat 1115.

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  #118 (permalink)
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We all look for days when One time framing is on full display. We want heads up. We want clues. However, when we
get EVIDENCE right in front of us, we muck it up. We keep using the tools which probably are of some help during 70%
of days, a.k.a - rotational days.

My recommendation will be to give up which works on rotational days and focus on what market internals are showing. Do not look at DOM, Do not attempt to look at so called order flow, do not look at smaller time frame and draw channels, triangles etc.

Just be aware of ATR and remeber on days like today ATR gets expanded/stretched double of normal range and then some.

Most importantly, do not even think about counter trend trades. Today, one had to decide on ONLY one thing. How much size to put on and then get out of the way.

Just think about it. Stocks A-Z all in red all day. VIX up 3.4% and on and on. If you are working at a prop. firm and at the end of the day, your report shows that you were taking counter trend trades. What possible explanation one can give for such an odd trading style?

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  #119 (permalink)
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" CL seems to be setting up for another leg down/Flush down. So, no longs for me unless REAL buying shows up."

CL is at 97.60. Nobody home. No takers.

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  #120 (permalink)
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All over the internet, financial media etc people are presenting all kinds of scenarios. For example, E-mini will test 200 day MA, 1860 is the target, a 10% pullback is healthy for the bull market, bull market is intact, I am neutral, I am not shorting yet and on and on.

Someone just e-mailed me following " Apr 10 the spx dropped 41 handles, next day dropped another 15 and it felt like the end of the world. got it all back 4 days later..."

He is a swing trader and is not ready to short yet and was implying by e-mailing me above stats. that bull trend is still intact. My answer to him was i am neither bullish or bearish. Luckily as day traders we do not have to worry about what will market do on any particular day, week or month. I reminded him that YTD performance for Russell 2000 is -3.6%, S&P 500 is at 4.8%, DJIA 0.3%.


If market is ready to bounce back 40 points or go down another 40 points- it does not matter. We will be ready either way because footprints of the move will be right in front of us. We are discretionary traders and trade what's in front of us.We watch, get a sense of which way traders whose action really matter are leaning towards and then act.

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