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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #1101 (permalink)
 sandptrader 
Valdosta, GA. U.S.A
 
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News about Coffee Market is Conflicting ,Compared to the Technical picture.....Fundamentally we are seeing a Drought in Brazil...that should cause a Rise in Price...But we are at High levels, and Retailers that sell Coffee products are not selling their goods at these levels from other reports.
I am looking at Technical picture:
-Weekly Chart looks Big Time Bearish.
-Daily looks like we may Test Higher back up toward Trend line?.....i am only looking at MACD for reason for saying that......i looked at Hourly, and it looks Bearish.
I get a bit confused trying to factor news with timing Entries....just trying to get a Fundamental Understanding.
The Hourly looks Good....if KC breaks below 183 it should head Down some more toward 180 Area?...
No Forecasting right..

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 mfbreakout 
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After spinning wheels for couple of years, traders come up with a set of things similar to following as a list of things they need to focus/master to become successful in trading.

To win the mental game you must have…

1) Faith in yourself.
2) Faith in your system.
3) An understanding of what trading size you can handle.
4) An understanding of the level of losses you can deal with mentally and emotionally.
5) A love and passion for trading.
6) The belief that it is possible to win in trading.
7) The belief that all your hard work will be worth it.
8) The belief that you are a trader, that is what you do.
9) The perseverance to have your butt kicked over and over but keep coming back.
10) The stubbornness to keep trying until you are successful.

Let's not worry about traders who have not yet realized the importance of things outlined in the above list. How about traders who have these things written down with 24K gold ink and framed all over their trading desk, office walls etc? In other words they got these things under control as much a human being can do.

I know of many traders who have everything mentioned in that list except ONE and they are still spinning the wheels and will continue to spin the wheels. In my experience item #4 is the missing link for traders who have everything else mentioned on that list. I will rewrite item #4 as following

4) An understanding of the level of risk one needs to undertake on every trade to avoid random nature of price movements and take something out of someone else's pocket.

The way item #4 is written in the list is a wrong way to approach the markets. Everyone has an understanding of the level of losses one can deal with mentally and emotionally. But how one feels about level of losses has NO MEANING and MARKET does not care. One trader can say based upon his account size, his personal financial situation and his technical analysis etc. that he can only handle 15 ticks stop loss vs. another trader who can handle 40 ticks stop loss and so on. When i have discussion like this with traders they almost come to tears, they curse me (not in my face but i know they do because i used to curse when other traders tried to guide me) and throw up their hands by saying " Well mfbreakout i do not have your trading account size and i have no way to get money from anywhere else".

I have never told anyone about my trading account and i am not in a position to tell anyone what's the proper trading account size one needs to trade full time for a living. A trader should be able to figure out that on his own. What i can tell is to FOCUS on "An understanding of the level of risk one needs to undertake on every trade to avoid random nature of price movements and take something out of someone else's pocket" and everything else will fall in place. Without item #4, items 1-10 can be a recipe for disaster because words like hard work, belief, stubbornness, perseverance, faith, love and passion etc. needs a foundation to build upon. We all know traders full of passion, love, faith etc for trading but going nowhere. One does not need to work on their passion, love, hard work etc. for trading. You either have it or you do not. Work on #4.

NOTE: The post is not about whether 15 ticks stop loss is better than 50 ticks or if one can make a living off a $5K vs $50K trading account.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1103 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
Whi i am not touching CC from the long side?

Another 32 points drop to 2823 or 1.25% drop this morning.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1104 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Example of day dreaming at it's finest.

By Bloomberg

" It’s a Saturday afternoon in March, and more than 500 people have tuned in for a two-hour webinar that tells them they can become rich trading foreign currencies.

“Success in trading is not a fantasy; it’s a formula,” Jared Martinez, founder of Market Traders Institute Inc., the oldest and largest such school in the U.S., tells his audience. “We have that formula.”

The Lake Mary, Florida, company that Martinez founded in 1994 says it has educated 30,000 amateur foreign-exchange investors.

“How many people would like to learn a skill where, within two days, they could make a thousand dollars?” Martinez asks that afternoon. “I’m here to tell you I can teach you how to trade consistently.”

He introduces Jose Tormos, his son-in-law, who echoes Martinez’s advice, Bloomberg Markets will report in its December issue."

Full article at Leverage as High as 50 to 1 Lures Amateur Forex Traders. They Lose - Bloomberg



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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Price finally reached Gap Area....I figured 6A would try and reach this Gap Area after the Non Farm report.
Although i was Faked out by the Large Spiked down bar on that 1H......There were Good set ups off of the Higher Low Structure up to the Gap.
where will 6A head to now?...i do not know....we will let Price give us a clue....and see if there is Evidence/Set up
we can trade.
On the Chart if you notice we are Diverged at current time...i did not draw a line to show this last Divergence.
I am just aware of it...i wait for Conformation, and other Evidence before Deciding what to do.

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 mfbreakout 
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sandptrader View Post
Price finally reached Gap Area....I figured 6A would try and reach this Gap Area after the Non Farm report.
Although i was Faked out by the Large Spiked down bar on that 1H......There were Good set ups off of the Higher Low Structure up to the Gap.
where will 6A head to now?...i do not know....we will let Price give us a clue....and see if there is Evidence/Set up
we can trade.
On the Chart if you notice we are Diverged at current time...i did not draw a line to show this last Divergence.
I am just aware of it...i wait for Conformation, and other Evidence before Deciding what to do.

I am short from .8725 area on a premise that every bounce is shortable within a macro bearish trend. Stop loss above last 2 weeks high. Not sure about timing, location of the trade but pretty sure about direction of the trend. Being right 1 out of 3 is good enough. Important point is out of 3 which one is most important- Timing, location or Context. I beat myself for years to get all 3 right, i just could not do it on a consistent basis. So i looked for easy way out and settled on context.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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4.30 pm today API news came. I do not know what the report findings are but based upon price action my short set up is not looking good. I was thinking that the way CL reacted today into the close is an early tell sign to API report.

Still holding shorts but cut down the size. All this drama for nothing. Key point is that one has to take all the set ups. One can not cherry pick.

Come on CL- break down.

CORRECTION= chart should read cover some 76.20



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
Whi i am not touching CC from the long side?


Cover some. Added to shorts in KC into the bounce.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
Come on CL- break down.

Added to shorts and there she goes.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
Cover some. Added to shorts in KC into the bounce.


CC down and down. Stopped out on KC as she ripped 2.71%. Looking for shorts.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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Next Major Support at 74.55...Weekly Low....falling out......Not Sure what next Round # 75 level will show us.

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 sandptrader 
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Starting to Roll Over....

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 sandptrader 
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Volume bar Spike of 25000 just happen.....this on Renko bar so it is over some minutes for Sure...but still watching what this means.

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 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
Added to shorts and there she goes.


No fireworks after DOE report just orderly sell off since yesterday.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 sandptrader 
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Flat for now on this Leg Down.....post Chart/Trade in a bit.
Scalper in me told me to get out for now......no Good reason.
I keep my Broker feed their daily bread...

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 sandptrader 
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Nice set ups on this size chart today.....i will have a new workstation with more monitors in the coming weeks to help with Trading more markets.

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 sandptrader 
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Another Great set up & Trade....too many opportunities to keep eye on all....

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 sandptrader 
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Last one......all of my Day Trading markets i posted for you guys.....i Hope you do Not mind @mfbreakout

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 mfbreakout 
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I hope it was clear that there were no longs in CL all day long. NG won the race to the downside VS CL.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I went nuts today shorting TF. There are many reasons for it but i will post a macro point of view by hedge eye. Idea is not to follow keith to the T. I try to use it along with others to prove or disaaprove my own permise. My favourite line from the video " Get rid of the moving monkey". Key point to note that these are very experienced and savy traders and they always talk about ranges. Not exact levels like most retail traders try to do.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
I am short from .8725 area on a premise that every bounce is shortable within a macro bearish trend. Stop loss above last 2 weeks high. Not sure about timing, location of the trade but pretty sure about direction of the trend. Being right 1 out of 3 is good enough. Important point is out of 3 which one is most important- Timing, location or Context. I beat myself for years to get all 3 right, i just could not do it on a consistent basis. So i looked for easy way out and settled on context.

Aussie



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Aussie

The twisted logic of risking twice to make half of the risk. It's against every risk strategy out there but it works for me. Options is one way to risk 1 to make 5, 10 times but i can not make sense out of options at this point. Since i can not get timing and location of a trade to be right on the money- i give my trades lot of room to hide my shortcomings as a trader.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
CC down and down. Stopped out on KC as she ripped 2.71%. Looking for shorts.

Short KC and CC into bounce around 2840 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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mfbreakout View Post
Short KC and CC into bounce around 2840 area.

CC getting roasted.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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My lady CL is doing her thing. Out flat 74.34 area. After massive move of yesterday- more clamer and typical rotational day should be on hands for the day.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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By Bloomberg news.

" Investigations by authorities on three continents are proceeding after six banks, including Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and UBS AG (UBSN), agreed to pay $4.3 billion to regulators in Europe and the U.S. Nov. 12 to settle claims that traders colluded with counterparts at other firms in an attempt to manipulate currency rates."

They can mess forex markets within a band but not outside of it by much. That's the reason for my stop loss strategy. Even after knowing this what do majority of traders do? they get in right in the middle for pips in the name of reading order flow, news, moving average monkey etc. while messing their HEART BEAT on a daily basis. Traders getting in the middle keep getting hosed but they can not give up. We hear all the time from traders that they are ADDICTIED to trading. Well pumped up HEART BEAT have addictive properties lethal than any drug out there.

Las Vegas joints never been fined for collusion as an industry at the extent these fine banking institutions get fined every other year but they stand tall with big bounces across the board? How is that possible? Common Sense tells us that they must be making more than Las Vegas joints and a new sucker joins the biggest joint of all- stocks, futures and forex markets every day to keep it going. By sucker i do not mean individual investor only, there are institutions and nations get sucked into all this.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1127 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Some shine coming off PL.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1128 (permalink)
 Surly 
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I've been watching these trendlines for weeks now. I keep adjusting the upper trendline as CL makes bounces and that trendline continues to be very easy to fit to the reaction levels - in other words I don't have to adjust it much. This kind of behavior is far from random - there is clearly some general consensus about selling near the top of this trend range and we haven't really broke out the bottom yet. The bottom trendline is just a parallel to the top line placed at the first low from back in mid-October.

Some things I notice:

- One of the strongest down moves (11/3 to 11/4) happened after CL broke above the trendline on 10/29 and failed, after that clear rejection of prices above the line the market dove almost straight down to the lower line.

- this most recent flush down from this morning stopped almost exactly at the line - I think this is another good reason to have bought on that flush down and held for a correction after yesterday's big move down to new lows.

- At some point, and it could be in a day or in a month or longer, we will break out of this trending range and establish a new regime of price action but for now we are surely still in this range and the macro trading is governed by the boundaries of the range.

I'm curious what you think of this MFB - do you think these lines are just coincidence or do you think that the macro structure of the supply and demand are being affected by this channel? I'm not challenging, I'm honestly seeking your opinion - I have my own but this is a place to share ideas.


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  #1129 (permalink)
 Surly 
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mfbreakout View Post
They can mess forex markets within a band but not outside of it by much. That's the reason for my stop loss strategy. Even after knowing this what do majority of traders do? they get in right in the middle for pips in the name of reading order flow, news, moving average monkey etc. while messing their HEART BEAT on a daily basis. Traders getting in the middle keep getting hosed but they can not give up. We hear all the time from traders that they are ADDICTIED to trading. Well pumped up HEART BEAT have addictive properties lethal than any drug out there.

Currencies seem like the most "macro" markets out there - they are all in relationship with each other and are valued by the economic relationships and competitions between whole nations. They are affected by the economic philosophies of different central banks, different economic philosophies (capitalism vs socialism vs ...), and the behavior and demographics of whole populations. No surprise that banks would try to manipulate them and no surprise that they cannot more than small amounts.

These two charts show the battleground that will play out over the next year or so. The USD and the EURO - they have been in a trading range against each other for many years and we are coming to an extreme of that trading range (USD 90 and EURO 1.20). Markets are simple, they go up and they go down - will these instruments reverse when they get to the extremes of these two trading ranges or will they continue past? Who the heck knows. But the answer to that question will determine the economic futures of these two western superpowers and even affect the future of the european union. Hard to use any of this for trading but it will be interesting to watch this all play out over the next year or two.




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  #1130 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Surly View Post
I've been watching these trendlines for weeks now. I keep adjusting the upper trendline as CL makes bounces and that trendline continues to be very easy to fit to the reaction levels - in other words I don't have to adjust it much. This kind of behavior is far from random - there is clearly some general consensus about selling near the top of this trend range and we haven't really broke out the bottom yet. The bottom trendline is just a parallel to the top line placed at the first low from back in mid-October.

Some things I notice:

- One of the strongest down moves (11/3 to 11/4) happened after CL broke above the trendline on 10/29 and failed, after that clear rejection of prices above the line the market dove almost straight down to the lower line.

- this most recent flush down from this morning stopped almost exactly at the line - I think this is another good reason to have bought on that flush down and held for a correction after yesterday's big move down to new lows.

- At some point, and it could be in a day or in a month or longer, we will break out of this trending range and establish a new regime of price action but for now we are surely still in this range and the macro trading is governed by the boundaries of the range.

I'm curious what you think of this MFB - do you think these lines are just coincidence or do you think that the macro structure of the supply and demand are being affected by this channel? I'm not challenging, I'm honestly seeking your opinion - I have my own but this is a place to share ideas.



Thanks Surly. Anyone who shares, discuss ideas is a HERO in my book. Trend lines, channels, balance areas, weekly ranges, daily ranges- they all have VALUE. Without these tools we have nothing else to go by. What i do not believe in is exact areas of support/resistance. After watching macro traders managing billions who always talk about ranges i started thinking " Who the hell i am coming up with exact levels?" when these guys do not stress about exact levels.

I know of many traders who can see on a chart demand /supply zones- in fact almost any one can do it. Problem comes when they try to put stop loss right above it. They like to say this is my set up, i am giving it 30 ticks ( or something like that) stop loss it either works or doe not. Picking stop loss like that is random.

Bottom line is everything becomes random if one gets stopped out. My solution to this problem is that i try to stay way away from randomness as far as stop loss goes. When my trade works, i look at my supply/demand zone and it looks like i have a crystal ball. In the past i was constantly adjusting my supply/demand zones to figure out PRECISE stop loss area. I try my best to come up with logical trade location but i do not get stress about PRECISION in discretionary trading any more.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1131 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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KC not working out today for me, CC and GC i am focused on today. Just took a long in ZS around 1037. No position in CL. Looking for shorts or long on pullbacks . Waiting for NG report which comes on Thursday bue due to holiday is coming out today.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1132 (permalink)
 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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mfbreakout View Post
Thanks Surly. Anyone who shares, discuss ideas is a HERO in my book. Trend lines, channels, balance areas, weekly ranges, daily ranges- they all have VALUE. Without these tools we have nothing else to go by. What i do not believe in is exact areas of support/resistance. After watching macro traders managing billions who always talk about ranges i started thinking " Who the hell i am coming up with exact levels?" when these guys do not stress about exact levels.

I know of many traders who can see on a chart demand /supply zones- in fact almost any one can do it. Problem comes when they try to put stop loss right above it. They like to say this is my set up, i am giving it 30 ticks ( or something like that) stop loss it either works or doe not. Picking stop loss like that is random.

Bottom line everything becomes random if one gets stopped out. My solution to this problem is that i try to stay way away from randomness as far as stop loss goes. When my trade works, i look at my supply/demand zone and it looks like i have a crystal ball.

I agree completely. I've drawn this channel with lines but those lines need to be 100 ticks wide. I think that markets are very visual (ala Jim Dalton) and so yes, these lines represent supply and demand extremes but because this is such a long term chart you would need a 100-200 tick stop loss even at the very top and bottom if you want to trade these lines. Also, if you were trading on this type of chart, your hold time must be DAYS. A big part of the success or failure of a trading strategy is matching the size of your stops, targets, and hold time to the level you're doing your analysis on (this is a big part of your #4 guideline from that post in last day or so - the amount of money you have to risk to trade your strategy - NOTHING to do with psychology or your account size, everything to do with the MARKET).

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  #1133 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Surly View Post
I agree completely. I've drawn this channel with lines but those lines need to be 100 ticks wide. I think that markets are very visual (ala Jim Dalton) and so yes, these lines represent supply and demand extremes but because this is such a long term chart you would need a 100-200 tick stop loss even at the very top and bottom if you want to trade these lines. Also, if you were trading on this type of chart, your hold time must be DAYS. A big part of the success or failure of a trading strategy is matching the size of your stops, targets, and hold time to the level you're doing your analysis on (this is a big part of your #4 guideline from that post in last day or so - the amount of money you have to risk to trade your strategy - NOTHING to do with psychology or your account size, everything to do with the MARKET).

What you are talking about is HOLY GRAIL of trading. Everyone copy it, this is it as far this journal is concerned.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1134 (permalink)
 alejo 
madrid spain
 
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i have finish my test of a fake combine (150k/9ktarget(maxdd4k5 maxdll 3k)sucesfully today , i pass the 450points in 8 days with the scaling rules (max2lot <1500Profit, max3 lot<2kProf max5lot<3000 max10lot<4500 max15lot<7000 )
thank you for your advices!
on monday i will start a real combine with them

results

performance


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The fight is fair against oneself
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  #1135 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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Hi Alejo,

" i have finish my test of a fake combine (150k/9ktarget(maxdd4k5 maxdll 3k)sucesfully today , i pass the 450points in 8 days with the scaling rules (max2lot <1500Profit, max3 lot<2kProf max5lot<3000 max10lot<4500 max15lot<7000 )
thank you for your advices!
on monday i will start a real combine with them"


There is no such thing as fake trade when you place the order. Execution platform does not care whether it's a SIM trade or LIVE trade. Yes, on SIM trade a trader may get filled at an advantegous price Vs live trading but that's chump change in big picture. Point i am trying to make that this SCREEN time has value if taken seriously.

If you can be as free during Live trading as during SIM trading- you got it. If you can not. It will not be due to your method. It will be due to psyshological reasons. Only way i know to take care of psychological schackles is to trade UNDER SIZE. Do not go by what combine says you can trade in terms of size based off $150K account. Go by what you can handle.


Good luck.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1136 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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reversion to the mean trades every where. Everything which was up and up over last couple of days and overextended got reversed and everything which was down and down like GC, 6A up and up. Pure technical trading. No need to forecast. When it comes we take it.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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CL moved to the upside more than i anticipated. I am holding some shorts in anticipation of reversion to the mean. CL, GC,6A around upper end of weekly range.

1) taking some shorts in CL into next week. Hoping for 75 area. I hope CL does not bounce another 200 ticks to the upside before a pullback and if she does i will meet her on the other side. I have seen CL do things beyond my imagination , so i try to be mentally prepared. Within a bearish trend - rallies can be SUPER STRONG. That's hallmark of a bearish trend.

2) taking some shorts in GC into next week.

3) Taking some shorts in 6A into next week.

4) taking some shorts in KC into next week.

5) Long attempts in KC- loss. Flat.

6) Taking some longs in NG into next week.

7) No trades in TF.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1138 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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ZS- My head is SPINNING while going over ZS trades over last 3 days.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1139 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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I got couple of e-mails from what it looks like new traders. They were asking where to start to learn trading etc. I will copy my post from couple of days ago. Understand that there are traders who have been at traidng game for years but they will never get anywhere as long as they do not understand point #4 of this post. So my recommendation will be to focus on point #4.

" After spinning wheels for couple of years, traders come up with a set of things similar to following as a list of things they need to focus/master to become successful in trading.

To win the mental game you must have…

1) Faith in yourself.
2) Faith in your system.
3) An understanding of what trading size you can handle.
4) An understanding of the level of losses you can deal with mentally and emotionally.
5) A love and passion for trading.
6) The belief that it is possible to win in trading.
7) The belief that all your hard work will be worth it.
8) The belief that you are a trader, that is what you do.
9) The perseverance to have your butt kicked over and over but keep coming back.
10) The stubbornness to keep trying until you are successful.

Let's not worry about traders who have not yet realized the importance of things outlined in the above list. How about traders who have these things written down with 24K gold ink and framed all over their trading desk, office walls etc? In other words they got these things under control as much a human being can do.

I know of many traders who have everything mentioned in that list except ONE and they are still spinning the wheels and will continue to spin the wheels. In my experience item #4 is the missing link for traders who have everything else mentioned on that list. I will rewrite item #4 as following

4) An understanding of the level of risk one needs to undertake on every trade to avoid random nature of price movements and take something out of someone else's pocket.

The way item #4 is written in the list is a wrong way to approach the markets. Everyone has an understanding of the level of losses one can deal with mentally and emotionally. But how one feels about level of losses has NO MEANING and MARKET does not care. One trader can say based upon his account size, his personal financial situation and his technical analysis etc. that he can only handle 15 ticks stop loss vs. another trader who can handle 40 ticks stop loss and so on. When i have discussion like this with traders they almost come to tears, they curse me (not in my face but i know they do because i used to curse when other traders tried to guide me) and throw up their hands by saying " Well mfbreakout i do not have your trading account size and i have no way to get money from anywhere else".

I have never told anyone about my trading account and i am not in a position to tell anyone what's the proper trading account size one needs to trade full time for a living. A trader should be able to figure out that on his own. What i can tell is to FOCUS on "An understanding of the level of risk one needs to undertake on every trade to avoid random nature of price movements and take something out of someone else's pocket" and everything else will fall in place. Without item #4, items 1-10 can be a recipe for disaster because words like hard work, belief, stubbornness, perseverance, faith, love and passion etc. needs a foundation to build upon. We all know traders full of passion, love, faith etc for trading but going nowhere. One does not need to work on their passion, love, hard work etc. for trading. You either have it or you do not. Work on #4.

NOTE: The post is not about whether 15 ticks stop loss is better than 50 ticks or if one can make a living off a $5K vs $50K trading account.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1140 (permalink)
 sandptrader 
Valdosta, GA. U.S.A
 
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I like Trading this market....just wanted to post a chart of the Hourly that i have been keeping up with....
one of my favorites to trade now....
Adding Daily= Big picture so as to see the Divergence for Downside probability.

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  #1141 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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sandptrader View Post
I like Trading this market....just wanted to post a chart of the Hourly that i have been keeping up with....
one of my favorites to trade now.

Welcome to the jungle. I am glad you are looking at ZS, CC etc. One needs to hunt whatever is moving in the jungle.




My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1142 (permalink)
 sandptrader 
Valdosta, GA. U.S.A
 
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mfbreakout View Post
Welcome to the jungle. I am glad you are looking at ZS, CC etc. One needs to hunt whatever is moving in the jungle.


Started using TOS for watching more markets/Futures....it is Great platform.....16 markets now....thinking of trying Position Trades on some in the near future with small size...i use to Position trade like you are doing while watching Daily & 4H.

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  #1143 (permalink)
 ness1g 
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I'll try to share my trades when I find time.
Maybe it will benefit others, learn in the process and improve my own.
I trade 3 set ups. targets 20 to 50 tics
I only trade breakouts, reversals or pullbacks in a trending market.
I'm trying very hard to wait for best set ups only ( need a lot of help in this department)
I find that to be the hardest part in trading being tempted all day to jump in, where if I just wait and take my set ups the success rate has been over 85%
my stops are 7 to 15 tics max depends on set up, I'll take the loss and renter the trade but I'm not built to endure 50 tics .
Every person is different but what worked for me was to stay out of trades the longest time possible versus always jumping in and endure the ups and downs of the market.
my goal is to preserve capital the longest time possible while trying to be profitable.
any feedback is always appreciated.
Thanks

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  #1144 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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ness1g View Post
I'll try to share my trades when I find time.
Maybe it will benefit others, learn in the process and improve my own.
I trade 3 set ups. targets 20 to 50 tics
I only trade breakouts, reversals or pullbacks in a trending market.
I'm trying very hard to wait for best set ups only ( need a lot of help in this department)
I find that to be the hardest part in trading being tempted all day to jump in, where if I just wait and take my set ups the success rate has been over 85%
my stops are 7 to 15 tics max depends on set up, I'll take the loss and renter the trade but I'm not built to endure 50 tics .
Every person is different but what worked for me was to stay out of trades the longest time possible versus always jumping in and endure the ups and downs of the market.
my goal is to preserve capital the longest time possible while trying to be profitable.
any feedback is always appreciated.
Thanks

Hi Ness1g,

" I'm trying very hard to wait for best set ups only ( need a lot of help in this department)
I find that to be the hardest part in trading being tempted all day to jump in, where if I just wait and take my set ups the success rate has been over 85%"

1) If a trader is only trading 1 or 2 instruements, it's hard to be patient and wait for best set ups. I traded CL for four years exclusively thinking that i need to focus 100% on CL otherwise i will miss my set up. I will be sitting patiently for hours, my set up is not linning up but i see CL moving up or down 50 ticks here and 30 ticks there. I will forget about my 3-4 core set ups and go on a hunt to find as to how can i grab these ticks which are dancing around with me being on the side line or come up with a method to trade set ups which are not part of my core set ups. This will result in wasted energy, focus, frustration - you name it.

As you know now i am trading 4-6 markets every day. It's easier to find set ups when a trader has more options. My recommendation will be to expand your trading universe and do portfolio management.

2) I will not focus on 85% win rate. My rate is around 45% and every trader i know who has been at this game for a while is in that ball park. My biggest challenge at the present time is having a right position size in winning trades vs loosing trades. I make every effort that position size is in loosing trades is small vs position size in winning trades. This way i can have 45% win rate and still come out ahead.

3) Lastly and most imprtantly keep talking to like minded traders.Everyone needs a team of supporitve network to keep balance and remain in top condition. Tom Brady- the elite quarterback- has a team of 7 from conditioning coach to psychologist and everyone in between to lean on. We need to have a team also like any other professional.

Good trading.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 pvlee 
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Hi Ness1g,

" I'm trying very hard to wait for best set ups only ( need a lot of help in this department)
I find that to be the hardest part in trading being tempted all day to jump in, where if I just wait and take my set ups the success rate has been over 85%"

1) If a trader is only trading 1 or 2 instruements, it's hard to be patient and wait for best set ups. I traded CL for four years exclusively thinking that i need to focus 100% on CL otherwise i will miss my set up. I will be sitting patiently for hours, my set up is not linning up but i see CL moving up or down 50 ticks here and 30 ticks there. I will forget about my 3-4 core set ups and go on a hunt to find as to how can i grab these ticks which are dancing around with me being on the side line or come up with a method to trade set ups which are not part of my core set ups. This will result in wasted energy, focus, frustration - you name it.

As you know now i am trading 4-6 markets every day. It's easier to find set ups when a trader has more options. My recommendation will be to expand your trading universe.

2) I will not focus on 85% win rate. My rate is around 45% and every trader i know who has been at this game for a while is in that ball park. My biggest challenge at the present time is having a right position size in winning trades vs loosing trades. I make every effort that position size is in loosing trades is small vs position size in winning trades. This way i can have 45% win rate and still come out ahead.

3) Lastly and most imprtantly keep talking to like minded traders.Everyone needs a team of supporitve network to keep balance and remain in top condition. Tom Brady- the elite quarterback- has a team of 7 from conditioning coach to psychologist and everyone in between to lean on. We need to have a team also like any other professional.

Good trading.

Between 40% and 60% seems to be good enough and is what most successful traders achieve. But take a look at this guy... 90%+ Jaguar Trading Club

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 mfbreakout 
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Between 40% and 60% seems to be good enough and is what most successful traders achieve. But take a look at this guy... 90%+ Jaguar Trading Club


Thanks for sharing. If you follow this trader and it appeals to you it's all good. I do not look at anyone with 90%+ returns. Not because no one can make 90%+ returns it's because i know their approach and method to trading is different than mine. I do know of 2 traders who get returns in this kind of range ( that's what they told me) and i tried to trade along side them but it was not for me.



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 pvlee 
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Some of his members have told me his numbers are very suspect. Having been a guest in his trading room I would say his strike rate is closer to 40%

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 ness1g 
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Mfbreakout.
Thank you for your continuous support and help, I was hesitant of posting in your thread, I didn't wanna impose unless you think my post my help others and you didn't mind it.
You were right, I tried to focus on CL and TF thinking I needed to get better in fewer instruments before expanding.
You are absolutely right more instruments means more set up but my issue is space. with my set up I need a full monitor for each instrument. The disadvantage with ninja, it doesn't have bottom tabs to switch workspaces so I would need 10 monitors to do the job right. But I'm trying to figure a way out.
The bottom line I'll expand instruments but I like to have a feel for each first.
Thanks

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ness1g View Post
Mfbreakout.
Thank you for your continuous support and help, I was hesitant of posting in your thread, I didn't wanna impose unless you think my post my help others and you didn't mind it.
You were right, I tried to focus on CL and TF thinking I needed to get better in fewer instruments before expanding.
You are absolutely right more instruments means more set up but my issue is space. with my set up I need a full monitor for each instrument. The disadvantage with ninja, it doesn't have bottom tabs to switch workspaces so I would need 10 monitors to do the job right. But I'm trying to figure a way out.
The bottom line I'll expand instruments but I like to have a feel for each first.
Thanks

You probably are aware of this, but in case you aren't, you can have several workspaces open in Ninja at once, and switch between them in the File > Workspaces tab of the Control Center.

It's a little more cumbersome than, for instance, TradeStation, with its lower tabs, but not that much. The switch happens pretty fast, too.

Just in case you hadn't tried that....

Bob.

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 ness1g 
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I'm aware of workspaces but when switching in between the loading time takes too long.
It's ok I'll figure something out.
I really appreciate your help.
next time I should private message you since it's off topic of this thread.

Thanks,

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 jthom 
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@mfbreakout

Shorts looking good round 76 area? Or you think GAP between 76.50 - 76.80 can be tested? (JJ)

Cheers

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@mfbreakout

Shorts looking good round 76 area? Or you think GAP between 76.50 - 76.80 can be tested? (JJ)

Cheers

I have no idea if gap will be filled and when. My shorts are based off a bounce from 73.25 to 76.30, a 305 ticks bounce. I am mentally prepared to add to my shorts if CL first goes higher and then pulls back. Bounces like these within a bearish trend are a gift.



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 mfbreakout 
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NG- gap up. Not sure what caused it.



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CL moved to the upside more than i anticipated. I am holding some shorts in anticipation of reversion to the mean. CL, GC,6A around upper end of weekly range.

1) taking some shorts in CL into next week. Hoping for 75 area. I hope CL does not bounce another 200 ticks to the upside before a pullback and if she does i will meet her on the other side. I have seen CL do things beyond my imagination , so i try to be mentally prepared. Within a bearish trend - rallies can be SUPER STRONG. That's hallmark of a bearish trend.

2) taking some shorts in GC into next week.

3) Taking some shorts in 6A into next week.

4) taking some shorts in KC into next week.

5) Long attempts in KC- loss. Flat.

6) Taking some longs in NG into next week.

7) No trades in TF.


Holding shorts in GC, 6a,CL and KC.



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 mfbreakout 
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Best $200 i have spent in a while. Interviews, discussion etc by some of the brightest macro traders.

https://www.realvisiontv.com



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 mfbreakout 
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1) Stopped out on KC short. Ouch- 3 full points loss in KC means fully roasted premium beans. Looking for longs.

2) Out of GC shorts. Scratch.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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NG- gap up. Not sure what caused it.

NG up 7% from friday close. This turned out to the trade. Everything else was plain vanilla rotational type. Longs in CL after covering short from friday around 76 area. Shorts in TF from ORH.



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 mfbreakout 
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1) Stopped out on KC short. Ouch- 3 full points loss in KC means fully roasted premium beans. Looking for longs.

2) Out of GC shorts. Scratch.

1) KC gap filled on pullback. Long.

2) Long GC 1194 area. Out some 1201 area. Looking to add to longs on pullbacks.

3) Long ZS 1034 yesterday. Out some and holding rest.

4) looking for longs in CL and NG.



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 mfbreakout 
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Out of KC and ZS long since there was no follow through. GC stuck within OR , so flat. Short CC 2824 and holding.
NG short and waiting for gap fill to see if longs make sense.



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 mfbreakout 
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Out of KC and ZS long since there was no follow through. GC stuck within OR , so flat. Short CC 2824 and holding.
NG short and waiting for gap fill to see if longs make sense.

A) Damn NG just like CL she like to shake things up.

B) Crude seems to be getting ready for next leg down based upon days price action. I am flat. Anyone thinking of picking bottom be careful. I was looking for longs most of the day but day's close has taken away my long ideas. Looking for shorts. OPEC upcoming meeting Nove.27th, 2014.



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 mfbreakout 
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" B) Crude seems to be getting ready for next leg down based upon days price action. I am flat. Anyone thinking of picking bottom be careful. I was looking for longs most of the day but day's close has taken away my long ideas. Looking for shorts".


Holding some shorts into Globex session.



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 Surly 
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The price of all forward contracts in the WTI market have been in backwardation for the last several months. IOW, the price of the forward months have been below, in some cases $2 below, the front month pricing. In backwardation, you can buy oil at a cheaper price farther out in the future - this puts downward pressure on current prices.

WTI has finally gone into contango where the forward months are trading above the price of the current front month. Thus the price of the january contract is higher (within statistical limits identical) than the price of the december contract.

This is one factor in pricing oil but the backwardation and its downward effect on pricing of the front month is gone. I'm not saying oil is going to start climbing today but just that one of the structural pieces of the puzzle is no longer pushing prices down.


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 mfbreakout 
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Hi Surly,

" WTI has finally gone into contango where the forward months are trading above the price of the current front month. Thus the price of the january contract is higher (within statistical limits identical) than the price of the december contract.

This is one factor in pricing oil but the backwardation and its downward effect on pricing of the front month is gone. I'm not saying oil is going to start climbing today but just that one of the structural pieces of the puzzle is no longer pushing prices down."

Combine this with upcoming seasonal bullish tendencies of CL and we have RULES of the game. My tell sign will be when pullbacks become buyable from a weekly prespective.



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 Surly 
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Hi Surly,

Combine this with upcoming seasonal bullish tendencies of CL and we have RULES of the game. My tell sign will be when pullbacks become buyable from a weekly prespective.

Yes - we are traders, not analysts. We have to rely on the chart to tell us what to do and what not to do. At the end of the day:

"The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - john maynard keynes

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 mfbreakout 
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What's equivalent to dating a super model in trading? There are some RULES;

1) Regardless of beauty of the model- start slowly and don't get too deep, a.k. a don't buy at ORH.

2) Never date a dull one, a.k.a never short a dull market.


NG short is an example what i dream about all day because i like RISK. No risk= No Gains.



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 mfbreakout 
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" B) Crude seems to be getting ready for next leg down based upon days price action. I am flat. Anyone thinking of picking bottom be careful. I was looking for longs most of the day but day's close has taken away my long ideas. Looking for shorts".


Holding some shorts into Globex session.

CL did not test new lows during Globex as i was hoping for. I was short from 74.40 area. Covered some 74.10 and added to short this morning around 75. Covered around 74.50 and holding some in front of DOE report at 10.30 am this morning.

In the index universe everyone seems to be waiting for 2 pm FOMC minutes. NG is stuck within OR.



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 mfbreakout 
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A newley minted model.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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one need catalyst. 2 highy flying models got some air taken out.

1) Short GC.

2) Short TF 1164 area. Cover some and holding short. Going over my notes from yesterday , i was long 1166 to 1174. Price has no VALUE.



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 mfbreakout 
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NG is up and up. Seasonal cold weather on east coast always puts fire under NG. It's getting up in nose bleeding territory, so out some 4.460 area.



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 mfbreakout 
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A newley minted model.

Based off daily and weekly chart- with no clear pattern, i am willing to short after move beyond ATR etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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one need catalyst. 2 highy flying models got some air taken out.

1) Short GC.

2) Short TF 1164 area. Cover some and holding short. Going over my notes from yesterday , i was long 1166 to 1174. Price has no VALUE.


stopped out of GC short 1188 area.



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 mfbreakout 
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Short GC 1195 area, TF 1161 area, CL 75 area, NG 4.40 area. Just like yesterday i feel again that CL is getting ready to test new lows. Plan to hold some shorts into Globex.

GC trade is reaction to FOMC minutes.

NG reversal to mean off weekly/monthly balance area. Out flat around ORL area.

TF weak internals and reaction to FOMC minutes.

Short in KC around 119.85. Reversion to the mean pullback set up. Still holding some shorts after covering some for a $1 gain.



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 mfbreakout 
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NG balance area. Reversion to the mean short. On the day 2 shorts and 1 long in NG.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Don't leave home without $ and leave traditional indicators where they belong.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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I stopped looking at 2 candles up and 1 down etc as a sign of bullish or bears as i started moving away from noise more and more. I subscribe to many services trying to figure out as to how so called BIG money looks at support/resistance , bullish/ bearish direction etc. To my surprise it is so different from what i was looking at that i felt pretty foolish.

I am still not clear about long term and intermediate analysis used by macro traders. I am trying to wrap my head around short term. Their so called short term is way out there than any thing i thought as to what short term is. Having macro perspective and then executing it on a daily basis while making sure that one does not get into the deep end of analysis/paralysis is quite a challenge to say the least. Majority of webinars except Jim Dalton's and FT71 on Auction Market theory- i find them useless.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 bedhog 
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mfbreakout View Post
Majority of webinars except Jim Dalton's and FT71 on Auction Market theory- i find them useless.

Try these 3 videos. Very influential. Big turning point in my trading. Enjoy.

Charles Cochran @ CN Futures Trading
Market Profile Part 1
Market Profile Part 2
Market Profile Part 3

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 mfbreakout 
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Try these 3 videos. Very influential. Big turning point in my trading. Enjoy.

Charles Cochran @ CN Futures Trading
Market Profile Part 1
Market Profile Part 2
Market Profile Part 3

Thanks Bedhog for posting the link. Excellent presentation by Mr. Cochran and he covered every important topic in an easy to understand logic. If i have to pick one point where i disagree with him and majority of Auction Market presenters is when they ruin everything by first laying down virtues of Auction market theory by saying that BIG MONEY uses this approach as they want to stay away from noise. Not everyone uses Market Profile. It's neither strength of this approach and neither weakness. It's just one way to look at market data.

I have a problem when presenter turns around and say this approach to the markets gives refrence point to the TICK. There is no such thing to the tick when 1000's of traders are participating in the market each with a different agenda, goals etc. It seems lot of traders try too hard to make Auction market theory which it is not- a way to predicit market direction with refrence points to the TICK. This problem seems to be very prevalent within ex-floor traders.



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 mfbreakout 
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" Short in KC around 119.85. Reversion to the mean pullback set up. Still holding some shorts after covering some for a $1 gain."

Each trader is like a farmer who harvest his crop. Some traders harvest after 5 minutes, some after an hour, some after a week and so on. It's all good as long as a trader does not mix and match one day as a 5 minute scalper and next day as a 2 days swing trader.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Short CC.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Looking for shorts in PL and GC and i do not have any refrence points to the TICK. If i was looking for such a thing , i am pretty sure i will just be sitting on hands. More importantly i do not want to so emotionally get tied to support/resistance
levels that when i get stopped out to the TICK- i have nothing left but to wonder why it's always me.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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"Short CL 75 area. Just like yesterday i feel again that CL is getting ready to test new lows. Plan to hold some shorts into Globex."

As of 6 am this morning CL at so called Value area. Some traders may be able to look at so called single prints in this area with tight stop loss for longs but not me. I see single prints all the way down to 73 etc. Single prints or value areas have been getting blown over last 5 weeks.

I wonder which so called BIG MONEY trader goes long in so called value area with tight stop loss? Anyone who is taking longs in 74 area is making a directional bet over a long period of time and is making sure he is not out right long and protects his position via hedges etc. He is not shaking in his boots wondering when his stop loss will get hit. Someone e-mailed me latest COT data showing big money very long in CL. I do not pay much attention to such data. Why? becuase it's just one piece of data. This data will be meaningful if i knew full positions along with hedges being put on by traders in COT data. Otherwise it's useless for me. Such information is as good as looking at a hedge fund manger holdings and goining long Intel becuase he and lot of hedge fund managers are long intel. Without knowing if intel position is outright long position or a hedge etc. is as dangerous as it gets.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 TravisD 
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Thanks MF, after reading your old jounal and keeping up on your new one I have been able to move from taking 5- tick trades to 30+ tick trades. I have reduced size down to 1 lot at a time and am seeing my blood pressure go down while profits go up.

My trading hours are limited because I work a full time+ construction job. And when I have traded in the past I have felt the pressure to try and make a bunch of money in a short time frame, which has killed $40k plus of real money!

Your journals and guidance have been instrumental in my progression and are much appreciated!

I know that I have a ways to go(basically the rest of my life...) but now I look forward to trading rather than dreading how much money I am going to lose. I wasn't really dreading trading, but I was definitely in a funk for awhile. I actually like trading and am enjoying it more now as I have learnt from you and the other posters in your journals.

Thanks again man!

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 mfbreakout 
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TravisD View Post
Thanks MF, after reading your old jounal and keeping up on your new one I have been able to move from taking 5- tick trades to 30+ tick trades. I have reduced size down to 1 lot at a time and am seeing my blood pressure go down while profits go up.

My trading hours are limited because I work a full time+ construction job. And when I have traded in the past I have felt the pressure to try and make a bunch of money in a short time frame, which has killed $40k plus of real money!

Your journals and guidance have been instrumental in my progression and are much appreciated!

I know that I have a ways to go(basically the rest of my life...) but now I look forward to trading rather than dreading how much money I am going to lose. I wasn't really dreading trading, but I was definitely in a funk for awhile. I actually like trading and am enjoying it more now as I have learnt from you and the other posters in your journals.

Thanks again man!


Thanks Travis D,

Your post brings an important point which has been on my mind for some time. I have written about it couple of times in my previous journal but it's time to revisit it again.

One of the best traders i know in terms of risk:reward trades only couple of hours a week and full day on fridays. He has a successful business and mostly clears 30 ticks with occassional 100+ ticks moves. His stop loss is never more than 15+ ticks and he does very well. He ONLY trades CL and Aussie $. Aussie $ becuase he can trade it in the evenings as Asian market opens up. There are certain RULES for this kind of success and he never ever deviates from it.

1) When he clears 30+ ticks. He shuts downs the computer and moves on.
2) Daily loss limit hit and he is done for the day.
3) He stays away when news are coming/pending.
4) He trades way below his trading account. Sometimes he trades 4-6 contracts but it's for A+++++ set up which do not come around often.
5) I still do not undersatnd where and how he got his discipline. I guess after getting hosed for 10+ years, he finally settled on his method and he is happy with it.

Bottom line don't let your limited time for trading being a handicap. Most importantly- if you can get RID of pressure to make money , i can guarantee you will be the best trader you can be.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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"Short CL 75 area. Just like yesterday i feel again that CL is getting ready to test new lows. Plan to hold some shorts into Globex."

As of 6 am this morning CL at so called Value area. Some traders may be able to look at so called single prints in this area with tight stop loss for longs but not me. I see single prints all the way down to 73 etc. Single prints or value areas have been getting blown over last 5 weeks.

I wonder which so called BIG MONEY trader goes long in so called value area with tight stop loss? Anyone who is taking longs in 74 area is making a directional bet over a long period of time and is making sure he is not out right long and protects his position via hedges etc. He is not shaking in his boots wondering when his stop loss will get hit. Someone e-mailed me latest COT data showing big money very long in CL. I do not pay much attention to such data. Why? becuase it's just one piece of data. This data will be meaningful if i knew full positions along with hedges being put on by traders in COT data. Otherwise it's useless for me. Such information is as good as looking at a hedge fund manger holdings and goining long Intel becuase he and lot of hedge fund managers are long intel. Without knowing if intel position is outright long position or a hedge etc. is as dangerous as it gets.


1) Reshort CL 74.85 area. Cover some 74.40.

2) NG short 4.470 area. Cover most 4.40

3)Short GC 1195 area. Cover some 1189 area.

4) CC short neither here or there so far.

5) Still holding some shorts in KC.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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" Short in KC around 119.85. Reversion to the mean pullback set up. Still holding some shorts after covering some for a $1 gain."

Each trader is like a farmer who harvest his crop. Some traders harvest after 5 minutes, some after an hour, some after a week and so on. It's all good as long as a trader does not mix and match one day as a 5 minute scalper and next day as a 2 days swing trader.

KC got fully roasted.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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" Don't be a monkey and trade ES, TF etc every day when there is nothing going on" Keith McCullough.

OK Keith. KC got really toasted today. I will be reshorting NG on every 1-2 % bounce till it clears $5 level. Buy area with 3.70 refrence point.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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" Don't be a monkey and trade ES, TF etc every day when there is nothing going on" Keith McCullough.

OK Keith. KC got really toasted today. I will be reshorting NG on every 1-2 % bounce till it clears $5 level. Buy area with 3.70 refrence point.

I have no idea why NG bounced hard from 4.25 area. That's why it's prudent to trade with small size. Out flat 4.270.



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 mfbreakout 
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Ranges courtesy of Hedgeye. I subscribe to many services and all of them just give ranges. I wonder why they can not come up with levels to the tick? Hedgeye have 76.20 area to sell CL, Global research at 76.50 and so on. Rather than getting fixated on a level, i just place stop loss way above these ranges so that every one looks good (lol).



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 mfbreakout 
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Well CL did not break 74 area despite my best hopes (lol). Turned out to be a scratch type of day for me- so far unless short into close get somewhere. Planning to hold during Globex. Short 75.80 area.

Did went long 75.50 area . Was hoping to get an exhausation bar to 76.50 area to short right in CL face but no go. Exhausation bar shorts gives quick 40-60 ticks and then slow down move. This short without exhausation bar will be a slow dreadful back and forth move.



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 mfbreakout 
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" Don't be a monkey and trade ES, TF etc every day when there is nothing going on" Keith McCullough.

OK Keith. KC got really toasted today. I will be reshorting NG on every 1-2 % bounce till it clears $5 level. Buy area with 3.70 refrence point.

re short 4.480 area.



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 mfbreakout 
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Well CL did not break 74 area despite my best hopes (lol). Turned out to be a scratch type of day for me- so far unless short into close get somewhere. Planning to hold during Globex. Short 75.80 area.

Did went long 75.50 area . Was hoping to get an exhausation bar to 76.50 area to short right in CL face but no go. Exhausation bar shorts gives quick 40-60 ticks and then slow down move. This short without exhausation bar will be a slow dreadful back and forth move.


CL at 76.50 area. Only surprise is that CL did not hit that area during RTH when i was long. Short.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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CL at 76.50 area. Only surprise is that CL did not hit that area during RTH when i was long. Short.

Cover some 76.10 and planning to add to shorts if CL bounces higher. Ideal target 75 area. First target 75.50 area.



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 mfbreakout 
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re short 4.480 area.

Cover some 4.379 area.



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 mfbreakout 
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Cover some 76.10 and planning to add to shorts if CL bounces higher. Ideal target 75 area. First target 75.50 area.

Damn CL reversed from 75.50 area at the speed of light. I had to cover short at the market and go long. As usual all kinds of conflicting news as to why part of the equation. CL move from 75.50 to 76.70 very orderly, subsequent pullback very orderly but this reversal very UNUSUAL to say the least. Longs and Longs till the freight train stops. Any short attempts will require a pretty wide stop loss due to UNUSUAL price action underway in CL.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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' European Stocks Jump as Draghi Repeats Inflation Pledge"

Catalyst to short the hell out of Euro. Short.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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Damn CL reversed from 76.50 area at the speed of light. I had to cover short at the market and go long. As usual all kinds of conflicting news as to why part of the equation. CL move from 75.50 to 76.70 very orderly, subsequent pullback very orderly but this reversal very UNUSUAL to say the least. Longs and Longs till the freight train stops. Any short attempts will require a pretty wide stop loss due to UNUSUAL price action underway in CL.


In situations like these CL can RUN beyond what most of us can comprehend. Out some 77.30. I took some off at 76.30 area thinking to add on pullbacks to 75.60 area. There was none.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 mfbreakout 
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In situations like these CL can RUN beyond what most of us can comprehend. Out some 77.30. I took some off at 76.30 area thinking to add on pullbacks to 75.60 area. There was none.

All right pretty lady time to pullback some. From this point on ONLY shorts for me. Purpose of covering shorts is to add to shorts into bounces. This does not mean CL can not make new highs and 77.80 is high for the day. $80 is stop loss area for me. Plan to focus on CL, NG and GC for most of the day. To try longs in 77 area BAR is very high for me. I do not anticipate a situation like that coming up today based on probabilities.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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 SawDr 
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Nice set ups on this size chart today.....i will have a new workstation with more monitors in the coming weeks to help with Trading more markets.

Hi Sandptrader,
Do you have a list of your indicators and a template for your Ninja charts on this thread? I'm trying to build a similar look for some of my charts but have not been successful - any help would be appreciated - thanks!
-SawDr

 
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 Surly 
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Here's those same trendlines again.


Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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 mfbreakout 
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All right pretty lady time to pullback some. From this point on ONLY shorts for me. Purpose of covering shorts is to add to shorts into bounces. This does not mean CL can not make new highs and 77.80 is high for the day. $80 is stop loss area for me. Plan to focus on CL, NG and GC for most of the day. To try longs in 77 area BAR is very high for me. I do not anticipate a situation like that coming up today based on probabilities.


Cover most 76.50 area and still hloding shorts. No longs for me till FLUSH down shows up. Picking longs within macro bearsih trend set up BAR is very high. CL can drop another 100 ticks in a NY minute and if she gets stuck in a box- get your scalps from long side and RUN. Serious buying or monetum is tough to hide, for example during Euro session this morning. Till then it's just guessing based upon 2 candles up and one down etc.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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