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COMMON SENSE


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COMMON SENSE

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  #1181 (permalink)
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"Short CL 75 area. Just like yesterday i feel again that CL is getting ready to test new lows. Plan to hold some shorts into Globex."

As of 6 am this morning CL at so called Value area. Some traders may be able to look at so called single prints in this area with tight stop loss for longs but not me. I see single prints all the way down to 73 etc. Single prints or value areas have been getting blown over last 5 weeks.

I wonder which so called BIG MONEY trader goes long in so called value area with tight stop loss? Anyone who is taking longs in 74 area is making a directional bet over a long period of time and is making sure he is not out right long and protects his position via hedges etc. He is not shaking in his boots wondering when his stop loss will get hit. Someone e-mailed me latest COT data showing big money very long in CL. I do not pay much attention to such data. Why? becuase it's just one piece of data. This data will be meaningful if i knew full positions along with hedges being put on by traders in COT data. Otherwise it's useless for me. Such information is as good as looking at a hedge fund manger holdings and goining long Intel becuase he and lot of hedge fund managers are long intel. Without knowing if intel position is outright long position or a hedge etc. is as dangerous as it gets.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1182 (permalink)
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Thanks MF, after reading your old jounal and keeping up on your new one I have been able to move from taking 5- tick trades to 30+ tick trades. I have reduced size down to 1 lot at a time and am seeing my blood pressure go down while profits go up.

My trading hours are limited because I work a full time+ construction job. And when I have traded in the past I have felt the pressure to try and make a bunch of money in a short time frame, which has killed $40k plus of real money!

Your journals and guidance have been instrumental in my progression and are much appreciated!

I know that I have a ways to go(basically the rest of my life...) but now I look forward to trading rather than dreading how much money I am going to lose. I wasn't really dreading trading, but I was definitely in a funk for awhile. I actually like trading and am enjoying it more now as I have learnt from you and the other posters in your journals.

Thanks again man!

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  #1183 (permalink)
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TravisD View Post
Thanks MF, after reading your old jounal and keeping up on your new one I have been able to move from taking 5- tick trades to 30+ tick trades. I have reduced size down to 1 lot at a time and am seeing my blood pressure go down while profits go up.

My trading hours are limited because I work a full time+ construction job. And when I have traded in the past I have felt the pressure to try and make a bunch of money in a short time frame, which has killed $40k plus of real money!

Your journals and guidance have been instrumental in my progression and are much appreciated!

I know that I have a ways to go(basically the rest of my life...) but now I look forward to trading rather than dreading how much money I am going to lose. I wasn't really dreading trading, but I was definitely in a funk for awhile. I actually like trading and am enjoying it more now as I have learnt from you and the other posters in your journals.

Thanks again man!


Thanks Travis D,

Your post brings an important point which has been on my mind for some time. I have written about it couple of times in my previous journal but it's time to revisit it again.

One of the best traders i know in terms of risk:reward trades only couple of hours a week and full day on fridays. He has a successful business and mostly clears 30 ticks with occassional 100+ ticks moves. His stop loss is never more than 15+ ticks and he does very well. He ONLY trades CL and Aussie $. Aussie $ becuase he can trade it in the evenings as Asian market opens up. There are certain RULES for this kind of success and he never ever deviates from it.

1) When he clears 30+ ticks. He shuts downs the computer and moves on.
2) Daily loss limit hit and he is done for the day.
3) He stays away when news are coming/pending.
4) He trades way below his trading account. Sometimes he trades 4-6 contracts but it's for A+++++ set up which do not come around often.
5) I still do not undersatnd where and how he got his discipline. I guess after getting hosed for 10+ years, he finally settled on his method and he is happy with it.

Bottom line don't let your limited time for trading being a handicap. Most importantly- if you can get RID of pressure to make money , i can guarantee you will be the best trader you can be.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1184 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
"Short CL 75 area. Just like yesterday i feel again that CL is getting ready to test new lows. Plan to hold some shorts into Globex."

As of 6 am this morning CL at so called Value area. Some traders may be able to look at so called single prints in this area with tight stop loss for longs but not me. I see single prints all the way down to 73 etc. Single prints or value areas have been getting blown over last 5 weeks.

I wonder which so called BIG MONEY trader goes long in so called value area with tight stop loss? Anyone who is taking longs in 74 area is making a directional bet over a long period of time and is making sure he is not out right long and protects his position via hedges etc. He is not shaking in his boots wondering when his stop loss will get hit. Someone e-mailed me latest COT data showing big money very long in CL. I do not pay much attention to such data. Why? becuase it's just one piece of data. This data will be meaningful if i knew full positions along with hedges being put on by traders in COT data. Otherwise it's useless for me. Such information is as good as looking at a hedge fund manger holdings and goining long Intel becuase he and lot of hedge fund managers are long intel. Without knowing if intel position is outright long position or a hedge etc. is as dangerous as it gets.


1) Reshort CL 74.85 area. Cover some 74.40.

2) NG short 4.470 area. Cover most 4.40

3)Short GC 1195 area. Cover some 1189 area.

4) CC short neither here or there so far.

5) Still holding some shorts in KC.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1185 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
" Short in KC around 119.85. Reversion to the mean pullback set up. Still holding some shorts after covering some for a $1 gain."

Each trader is like a farmer who harvest his crop. Some traders harvest after 5 minutes, some after an hour, some after a week and so on. It's all good as long as a trader does not mix and match one day as a 5 minute scalper and next day as a 2 days swing trader.

KC got fully roasted.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1186 (permalink)
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" Don't be a monkey and trade ES, TF etc every day when there is nothing going on" Keith McCullough.

OK Keith. KC got really toasted today. I will be reshorting NG on every 1-2 % bounce till it clears $5 level. Buy area with 3.70 refrence point.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1187 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
" Don't be a monkey and trade ES, TF etc every day when there is nothing going on" Keith McCullough.

OK Keith. KC got really toasted today. I will be reshorting NG on every 1-2 % bounce till it clears $5 level. Buy area with 3.70 refrence point.

I have no idea why NG bounced hard from 4.25 area. That's why it's prudent to trade with small size. Out flat 4.270.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1188 (permalink)
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Ranges courtesy of Hedgeye. I subscribe to many services and all of them just give ranges. I wonder why they can not come up with levels to the tick? Hedgeye have 76.20 area to sell CL, Global research at 76.50 and so on. Rather than getting fixated on a level, i just place stop loss way above these ranges so that every one looks good (lol).



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1189 (permalink)
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Well CL did not break 74 area despite my best hopes (lol). Turned out to be a scratch type of day for me- so far unless short into close get somewhere. Planning to hold during Globex. Short 75.80 area.

Did went long 75.50 area . Was hoping to get an exhausation bar to 76.50 area to short right in CL face but no go. Exhausation bar shorts gives quick 40-60 ticks and then slow down move. This short without exhausation bar will be a slow dreadful back and forth move.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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  #1190 (permalink)
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Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
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mfbreakout View Post
" Don't be a monkey and trade ES, TF etc every day when there is nothing going on" Keith McCullough.

OK Keith. KC got really toasted today. I will be reshorting NG on every 1-2 % bounce till it clears $5 level. Buy area with 3.70 refrence point.

re short 4.480 area.



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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